V i n c e n z K l e m t , 2 0 1 2

S t r a t h c l y d e B u s i n e s s S c h o o l D e p t . o f M a n a g e m e n t S c i e n c e

Today‘s Objectives

• Understand the concept of Morphological Analysis • Have learnt how to approach MA • Understand the use of parameters in decision making • Understand the difference between MA and less structured

approaches • Be able to apply a morphological analysis to a given scenario

After today‘s lecture you should...

Introduction “A method for identifying and investigating the total set of

possible relationships contained in any given, multi-dimensional problem complex that can be parameterised”(swemorph.com)

Defined in 1942-43 by astrophysicist Fritz Zwicky

Invented to look for new military means of jet propulsion

Allows to find possible solutions to complex problems characterized by several parameters

Areas of application:

Scenario and strategy laboratories

Organisational structure and development

National and International security policy issues

Negotiation and Stakeholder analysis

Crisis management and crisis mitigation issues

New product development, services, patents, value management, ...

Assumptions

Group of methods sharing the same structure

Breaks down a system, product or process into its essential sub-concepts, each concept representing a dimension in a multi-dimensional matrix

Every product is considered as a bundle of attributes

New ideas are found by searching the matrix for new combination of attributes that do not yet exist

Doesn’t provide any specific guidelines for combining the parameters

Tends to provide a large number of ideas

Source: Swedish Morphological Society (2012)

Pros & Cons

Pros

Helps discover new and less evident configurations

Encourages the identification and investigation of boundary conditions,

Scientific communication and group work

Allows us to find possible solutions to complex problems characterised by several parameters

Richness of data (can provide a multitude of combinations)

Allows for a systematic analysis of an industry’s future structure and identification of key gaps.

Cons

Too structured at times; might inhibit free, creative thinking

May yield too many possibilities

Human judgement still needed to direct the outcome

No guidelines for making combinations

Human error

Compared to less structured approaches

How it is used

MA systematically arranges appropriate and

promising aspects

To identify new and suitable combinations

Objective: break down the problem into its

essential parameters/dimensions

Tackling Complex Problems with MA

Parameters: X Y Z ...

Solution for each parameter: a b c ...

Possible answers to the complex challenge: aXbXcX...

...Limitless

Combinations.

“In battle, there are only the normal and the extraordinary forces, but their cobinations are limitless“ Sun Tzu

Approaching MA Problem formulation

and communication

Selection and analysis

of corresponding

parameters

List variations

Research and evaluate

all possible solutions

Check and evaluate

solution for

practicability

Start

Finish

Five iterative steps in MA:

1. Concisely formulate the problem to be solved

2. Localise and analyse important parameters; involves studying

the problem and present solutions to develop a framework

3. Construction of a multidimensional matrix (morphological

box) containing all potential solutions of the given problem

4. All solutions contained in the morphological box are closely

scrutinized and evaluated with respect to the purposes that

are to be achieved.

5. The optimally suitable solutions are selected and are

practically applied, provided the necessary means are

available. This reduction to practice requires in general a

supplemental morphological study.

Steps 2 and 3: form the heart of morphological analysis

Steps 1, 4, 5 are often involved in other forms of analysis

Source: meport.net

Approaching MA

Once parameters are identified, a morphological box listing parameters along one dimension can be constructed

The second dimension is determined by the nature of the problem

Multidimensional Matrix (morphological or Zwicky box)

A ”Zwicky box” is constructed by setting the parameters against each other in an n-dimensional matrix

Each cell of the n-dimensional box contains one particular ”value” or condition from each of the parameters, thus marks out a particular state or configuration of the problem complex.

Source: Swedish Morphological Society (2012)

Approaching MA

1. Identification and definition of the problem complex parameters to be investigated; assign a range of relevant values or conditions to each parameter

The point: to examine all of the configurations in the field

To establish which of them are possible, viable, practical, interesting, etc., and which are not

Mark out in the field a ”solution space” consisting of the subset of configurations which satisfy some criteria

2. Analysis-synthesis process to examine internal relationships between

the field parameters

Achieved by a process of cross-consistency assessment: all of the

parameter values in the morphological field are compared with one

another

Sources:

•Swedish Morphological Society (2012),

•meport.net

So

ftw

are

So

luti

on

Source: Swedish Morphological Society (2012)

Case Study Example

A company specialises in the manufacture of high performance valves and shut-off butterfly

valves for various types of processes in petrochemicals, air separation and natural gas

liquefaction. The company has recently been acquired by a larger organisation and is looking

into the options of developing new valve systems.

Let us assume a scenario where a management scientist joins the department of engineering to

create new ideas. Morphological Analysis can be applied to find new ways. The following MA is

simplified significantly for demonstration purposes.

Case Study Example Parameter Value

Material Alloy Carbon

Steel

Stainless

Steel

Duplex SS Special

Materials

Al-Ni-

Bronze

Size and

Pressure

Range

NPS 2 –

NPS 100

CL 150

up to

2500

Bi-

directional

tightness

Higher

classes on

request

Throughflow Liquid Gas Chemical Natural LN2 LH2

Temperature

Range

-40 to

+1000 °C

-40 °C to

600 °C

-40 °C to

350 °C

-270 °C to

200 °C

-40 °C to

1450 °C

Seat Disc Double

block

Single None With steam

purging

Service Full

Package

On-Site Installation Extended Bespoke Inst.

Repl.

Maintain

ance

Spare

Parts

Engineering

Type On/Off

Valve

Control

Valve

Special

Application

Application Power

Plants

(non-

nuclear)

Ethylene

Plants

Refineries Chemical

Plants

Polymerisi

ng Fluids

Air and

Space

Acrylic

Acid

Natural

Gas

Transfer line

valve and

decoking valve

We have collected

several parameters

in a simplified MA

Matrix...

Case Study Example Parameter Value

Material Alloy Carbon

Steel

Stainless

Steel

Duplex SS Special

Materials

Al-Ni-

Bronze

Size and

Pressure

Range

NPS 2 –

NPS 100

CL 150

up to

2500

Bi-

directional

tightness

Higher

classes on

request

Throughflow Liquid Gas Chemical Natural Liquid LN2 Liquid

LH2

Temperature

Range

-40 to

+1000 °C

-40 °C to

600 °C

-40 °C to

350 °C

-270 °C to

200 °C

-40 °C to

1450 °C

Seat Disc Double

block

Single None With steam

purging

Service Full

Package

On-Site Installation Extended Bespoke Inst.

Repl.

Maintain

ance

Spare

Parts

Engineering

Type On/Off

Valve

Control

Valve

Special

Application

Application

Power

Plants

(non-

nuclear)

Ethylene

Plants

Refineries Chemical

Plants

Polymerisi

ng Fluids

Air and

Space

Acrylic

Acid

Natural

Gas

Transfer line

valve and

decoking valve

By means of the matrix the

focus group can evaluate

different combinations which

ultimately result in a new

product.

Results

Vast array of combinations

For instance: An electronically operated

Duplex Stainless Steel valve on single seat

for the application in Refineries at normal

conditions

Preferences and requirements of the

different departments can be taken into

consideration to find the perfect match

References (and further reading)

• Ritchey, T (2011).: A general method for non-quantified modeling; Adapted from the paper "Fritz Zwicky, Morphology and Policy Analysis“; 16th EURO Conference on Operational Analysis, Brussels, 1998.

• Zwicky, F. (1969): Discovery, Invention, Research through the Morphological Analysis; The Macmillan Company

• Swedish Morphological Society (2012): Decision Support Modelling with General Morphological Analysis; Org.N°802452-3162; via http://www.swemorph.com/

• meport.net(2012): Morphologische Analyse (Morphological Analysis, Morphologischer Kasten); via http://www.meport.net/index.php?content=./lo_met_mngt/method_body_short_info.php&methodId=cd99c83f404638f2327f69dd581ca841&displayContext=&displayMode=show&versionId=191fc75a7f7277f548d19d745ea9540d&methodId=cd99c83f404638f2327f69dd581ca841&versionId=191fc75a7f7277f548d19d745ea9540d

• Idea Connection Ltd. (2012): http://www.ideaconnection.com/thinking-methods/morphological-analysis-

00026.html

• Mindtools.com: http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newCT_03.htm

• Also: http://www.diegm.uniud.it/create/Handbook/techniques/List/MorphoAnal.php

S t r a t h c l y d e B u s i n e s s S c h o o l

D e p t . o f M a n a g e m e n t S c i e n c e