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Energy Resource and Analysis

Introduction

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CLIMATE

• EARTH is 4.5 BILLION YEARS OLD

• Humans evolved in the last 2 million and Homo Sapiens in the last 0.4million

• Earth has had many ‘climates’ which describe an average pattern ofvariation in temperature, humidity ,precipitation etc

• There have been 6 Ice ages and we are currently in the end period of the

last one• Since we can only experience the present the science of paleoclimatology

has evolved and mathematical models, informed by the science, predict thefuture.

• Climate Myth: Climate's changed before

Climate is always changing. We have had ice ages and warmer periods whenalligators were found in Spitzbergen. Ice ages have occurred in a hundredthousand year cycle for the last 700 thousand years, and there have beenprevious periods that appear to have been warmer than the present despiteCO2 levels being lower than they are now. More recently, we have had themedieval warm period and the little ice age.

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• Snowball Earth 

• Ice ages 

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Snowball earth

http://www.bbc.co.uk/nature/ancient_earth/S

nowball_Earth#p00cgy7m 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/nature/ancient_earth/S

nowball_Earth#p00cgyfz

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Greenhouse Effect

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Climate Science

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keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/

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CO2 @800,000 year peak

2013

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Climate Change

• We are worried about ‘dangerous climate

change.

• 2 Degrees C is considered the potential risk

point for runaway climate change

• 400ppm

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HUMAN POPULATION

• 2.5 Billion in 1950

• 7.2 Billion in 2014

• 9 Billion in 2050 - predicted to stabilise

• www.unpopulation.org.

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Industrial Revolution (s)

• Water

• Coal , Rail

• Oil, Road• Gas

• Electricity

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A.D.

2000

A.D.

1000

A.D.

1

1000

B.C.

2000

B.C.

3000

B.C.

4000

B.C.

5000

B.C.

6000

B.C.

7000

B.C.

1+ million

years

8

7

6

5

2

1

4

3

OldStone

Age New Stone Age

Bronze

Age

Iron

Age

Middle

Ages

ModernAge

Black Death — The Plague

9

10

11

12

A.D.

3000

A.D.

4000

A.D.

5000

1800

1900

1950

1975

2000

2100

Future 

Billions

Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998).

World Population Growth Through

History

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Billions

Less Developed Regions

More Developed Regions 

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

Growth in More, Less Developed

Countries

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UN

• IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 5th 

assessment issued in September 2013

• ‘95% Certainty that humans are the dominant cause of

climate change since 1950s’ 

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The Arctic

• Change here is fast and very visible

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September extent trend is accelerating

Years Trend

(km2 yr-1)

% decade-1

relative to

79-00 avg.79-01 -45900 -6.5

79-02 -51000 -7.3

79-03 -52800 -7.5

79-04 -54600 -7.8

79-05 -59400 -8.4

79-06 -60200 -8.6

79-07 -71600 -10.2

79-08 -78100 -11.1

79-09 -78700 -11.2

79-10 -81400 -11.6

79-11 -84700 -12.0

79-12* -91200 -13.0

Average Monthly Arctic Sea Ice Extent

September 1979 to 2012

*2012 estimate

• Overall, the Arctic has lost ~50%of its summer ice cover

• The last six Septembers are the

lowest in our satellite records

(beginning in 1979)

IRELAND 73000km2