introduction to climate changes part 3

8/13/2019 Introduction to Climate Changes Part 3

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Changes in Arctic sea ice affecting global climate?

Less ice = wavy-er jet stream

Storm tracks change

Precipitation patterns change

More persistent weather patterns:

Heat waves

Cold snaps

Drought

Flooding

Changes expected in Europe and Asia as

well

J. Francis, Rutgers Univ. and S. Vavrus, Univ. Wisc., Geophys. Res. Letters, 2012

New

Old

Jet stream flow becoming more

north-south and less west-east


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UN Climate Change Conferences

RIO DE JANEIRO 1992 (Earth Summit)

Agenda 21 a non-binding, voluntarily implemented action plan of the United

Nations with regard to sustainable development. Signed by EU and

implemented. Signed by USA but not ratified by Congress and actively

opposed in many states. UN Commission on Sustainable Development

UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

Conference of the Parties (COP)


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Conferences of the Parties

1995: COP 1, The Berlin Mandate 1996: COP 2, Geneva, Switzerland

1997: COP 3, Kyoto, Japan. The Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change

1998: COP 4, Buenos Aires, Argentina

1999: COP 5, Bonn, Germany

2000: COP 6, The Hague, Netherlands

2001: COP 6, Bonn, Germany

2001: COP 7, Marrakech, Morocco

2002: COP 8, New Delhi, India

2003: COP 9, Milan, Italy

2004: COP 10, Buenos Aires, Argentina

2005: COP 11, Montreal, Canada

2006: COP 12, Nairobi, Kenya

2007: COP 13 Bali, Indonesia

2008: COP 14 Pozna, Poland

2009: COP 15Copenhagen, Denmark

2010: COP 16, Cancn, Mexico

2011: COP 17 , Durban, South Africa

2012: COP 18, Doha, Qatar


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Significant Meetings

KYOTO 1997, COP3

Kyoto Protocol, came into force February 2005

MARAKESH 2001 COP7, rules for Kyoto Protocol

COPENHAGEN 2009, COP15

President Obama and other world leaders have decided to put off the difficult task of reaching a

climate change agreement... agreeing instead to make it the mission of the Copenhagen

conference to reach a less specific "politically binding" agreement that would punt the most

difficult issues into the future"

A 13-paragraph 'political accord' was negotiated by approximately 25 parties including US and

China, but it was only 'noted' by the COP as it is considered an external document, not

negotiated within the UNFCCC process

CANCUN 2010, COP16

DURBAN, 2011, COP17 The conference agreed to a legally binding deal comprising all countries, which will be prepared

by 2015, and to take effect in 2020. scientists and environmental groups warned that the deal

was not sufficient to avoid global warming beyond 2 C as more urgent action is needed.

DOHA, 2012, COP 18


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Kyoto Protocol

The Kyoto Protocolto the United Nation Framework Convention On

Climate Change (UNFCCC) sets binding obligations on industrialised

countries to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases.

The UNFCCC is an international environmental treaty with the goal ofachieving the "stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations in

the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic

interference with the climate system.

The Protocol was adopted on 11 December 1997 in Kyoto, Japan, and

entered into force on 16 February 2005. As of September 2011, 191 stateshave signed and ratified the protocol. The United States signed but did

not ratify the Protocol and Canada withdrew from it in 2011


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Cancun Outcomes 1

The UNFCCC COP16 conference took place in Cancun, Mexico, in

late 2010. The talks marked a turning point in the global

negotiations to agree a global deal to tackle dangerous climate

change.

Key outcomes from the agreements at the Summit were:

Objective: agreed to peak emissions and an overall 2 degree target

to limit temperature rise

Emissions: bringing details of what developed and developingcountries are doing to tackle climate change, promised in

Copenhagen, into the UN system so they can be assessed


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Cancun Outcomes 2

MRV (measuring, reporting and verification): agreed a system so

we know how countries are living up to their promises to take

action on emissions

Long-term finance: established the Green Climate Fund to help

developing countries go low carbon and adapt to climate impacts

Deforestation: agreed to slow, halt and reverse destruction of trees

and agree the rules for delivering it and for monitoring progress

Technology / Adaptation: set up the mechanisms to help

developing countries access low carbon technology, and adapt toclimate change.


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DOHA, 2012

The Conference produced a package of documents collectively titled The

Doha Climate Gateway.

An amendment of the Kyoto Protocol (to be ratified before entering into force)

featuring an second commitment period running from 2012 until 2020 limited

in scope to 15% of the global carbon dioxide emissions due to the lack of

commitments of Japan, Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, New Zealand (nor the UnitedStates and Canada, who are not parties to the Protocol in that period) and due

to the fact that developing countries like China (the world's largest emitter),

India and Brazil are not subject to emissions reductions under the Kyoto

Protocol.

Language on loss and damage, formalized for the first time in the conference

documents.

The conference made little progress towards the funding of the Green Climate

Fund.


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International Views on Climate Change

Wide scientific and political consensuseven inUSA since election of President Obama

Wide divergence in views of what to do Reluctance to commit to binding treaties

EU countries lead the way

UK has set most demanding targets

Little on aviation or shipping Australia

8% increase under Kyoto Protocol, 0.5% cut in Doha


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Montreal Protocol

International treaties can work

The Montreal Protocol on Substances that

Deplete the Ozone Layer is aninternational treaty designed to protectthe ozone layer by phasing out the production ofnumerous substances believed to be responsiblefor atmospheric ozone depletion.

The treaty was opened for signature inSeptember 1987 and entered into force onJanuary 1, 1989


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Another Problem.

Between October 1973 and January 1974 worldoil prices quadrupled .

Suddenly we became aware that oil was not a

right and could be used as a political weapon.In October 1973 ,responding to the Yom Kippur

War, Arab members of OPEC raised the

posted price of crude oil by 70% andembargoed US and other nations allied withIsrael


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OIL PRICE


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IEA

Established in 1973 in response to OPEC

embargo after the 7 Day WarIsrael and the

ensuing Oil Crisis

http://www.iea.org

The International Energy Agency (IEA), an autonomous agency, was established in

November 1974. Its primary mandate wasand istwo-fold: to promote energysecurity amongst its member countries through collective response to physical

disruptions in oil supply, and provide authoritative research and analysis on ways to

ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy for its 28 member countries and

beyond.

Energy Outlook 2013
http://www.iea.org/http://www.iea.org/


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Peak Oil

The point of maximum extraction

Recent Warnings:"Peak oil is now." GermanEnergy Watch Group 2008"By 2012, surplus oil

production capacity could entirely disappear.."U.S. Department of Defense 2008 & 2010."Aglobal peak is inevitable. The timing isuncertain, but the window is rapidlynarrowing." UK Energy Research Centre -

2009"The next five years will see us face theoil crunch." UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oiland Energy Security 2009


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BBC Climate Change UK

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/hottopics/climatech

ange/

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/climateexperiment/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/hottopics/climatechange/http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/hottopics/climatechange/http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/hottopics/climatechange/http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/hottopics/climatechange/http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/hottopics/climatechange/


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Laws of Survival


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Transition Engineering


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DECC Pathways to 2050

http://2050-calculator-tool.decc.gov.uk/


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Books

The End of OilPaul Roberts ISBN 0-7475-7081-7

HeatGeorge Monbiot ISBN 0-713-99923-3

The Ages of GaiaJames LovelockISBN 978-0-19-286217-4

The Third industrial RevolutionJeremy Rifkin

Reports

IEA 2012 Energy Technologies Perspectives 2degC scenario

IEA Tracking Clean Energy Progress 2013 www.iea.org/etp/tracking European Commission 8.3.2011 A Roadmap for moving to a competitive

low carbon economy in 2050 www.ec.europa.eu

http://www.cutter.com/gecr/
http://www.iea.org/etp/trackinghttp://www.ec.europa.eu/http://www.ec.europa.eu/http://www.iea.org/etp/tracking

introduction to climate changes part 3

Documents