introducing the new forest carbon accounting framework the fia carbon accounting team: christopher...
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Introducing the New Forest Carbon Accounting Framework
The FIA Carbon Accounting Team: Christopher Woodall, Grant Domke, John Coulston, Dave Wear, James Smith, Mike Nichols, Sean Healey, Andy Gray, Charles Perry
And our partners across states, universities, and industry
What are The Mandates?
2014 Farm BillUS Signatories to UNFCCC: Follow
IPCC guidanceRPA: Reporting Biomass and CarbonFAO FRAMontreal Process C & IChief’s Climate Change ScorecardPresident’s Climate Action Plan
Take Home Message
Growing Requests for Carbon/Biomass Information
Need for Consistent Estimates (consistent Storylines)
Expanding Set of Policy Questions Greater Scrutiny Demonstrate Continuous Improvement Involve Full Breadth of FIA program (P3
and Pre-Field Land Use)
Misha “The Hammer”
Improvements Paradigm
Use of in situ plotsAlignment of NGHGI with other Domestic/International reports
Incorporation of emerging science
Flexibility to address attribution and land use change
2015 NGHGI
Submitted to EPA October 2014
Data from FIADB through Summer 2014
Currently in Public ReviewPublished mid-April 2015Myriad of Improvements to Forest Sector Reporting
2015: Forest floor (litter) C
Forest floor C measured on 4,500+ plots
Machine learning used to identify relevant variables
RF model developed using lat, long, AG live tree C, mean annual precip, max annual temp et al.
Error term representing the model uncertainty and observed variability around the prediction included in each estimate
Domke, G.M., Walters, B.F., Perry, C.H., Woodall, C.W., Smith, J.E., Russell, M.R. In Review. Estimation of forest floor carbon using the national forest inventory of the United States. Intended outlet: Nature Scientific Reports.
2015: Woodlands vs Forest land
Align definition of forests used in FAO FRA with US’ NGHGI
Ability to reach minimum height threshold (5 m) in situ
Transferred 29 million ha from Forest to Grassland land use (~4% reduction in C stocks)
Coulston, JW, Woodall, CW, Domke, GM, Walters, BF. In Prep. Refined Delineation between Woodlands and Forests with Implications for US National Greenhouse Gas Inventory of Forests. Intended Outlet: Climatic Change.
2015: Managed Lands (Alaska)
Per IPCC guidance only managed forests included in submission
Coterminous US forests all considered managed
“Managed” AK forests: impacted by settlements, along transport corridors, mining/gas areas, protected areas managed for recreation or suppression of disturbance
Ogle, S.M., Woodall, C.W., Swan, A., Smith, J., Wirth. T. In Prep. Determining the Managed Land Base for Delineating Carbon Sources and Sinks in the United States. Intended Outlet: Environmental Science and Policy.
How About Managed Forest Land?
What Are We Missing in Interior AK?
How much managed forest? 46-49 million ha of forestland
(~68% of interior forest)
How large of a carbon stock? 7,700 to 15,100 Tg C Equivalent to 37% of total forest C
stocks in coterminous US
Genet et al. In Prep. Synthesis of the role of dynamic driving factors (climate, fire, permafrost dynamics, and forest management) on the historical and projected vegetation and soil organic carbon dynamics in upland ecosystems of Alaska. Intended outlet: Ecological Applications.
McGuire et al. In Prep. A synthesis of terrestrial carbon balance of Alaska and projected changes in the 21st Century: Implications for climate policy and carbon management at local, regional, national, and international scales. Intended outlet: Ecological Applications.
Saatchi et al. In Prep. Distribution of Carbon Stocks in Managed and Unmanaged Forests of Alaska. Intended outlet: Carbon Balance and Management.
Effects of 2015 Changes
Decrease in US forest C stocks by 6.8 percent to 40,202 Tg C
Decrease in the most recent US forest C annual sequestration (2015 NGHGI compared to 2014 NGHGI) by 9.6 percent to 197.1 Tg C/yr
Decrease in the 2005 baseline year forest C annual sequestration by 12.4 percent to 196.9 Tg C/yr
2016 and Beyond: The Future
New accounting system for attribution and land use change
Improving pool estimation (in situ obs)
Old Accounting System Best attempt to reconcile periodic inventories with annual inventories Estimate carbon stocks at two times and substract (impute missing
areas in periodics such as wilderness) Lack of land use information in 1990’s complicated land use change
assessment
New Accounting System
Move annual inventory backwards and forwards in time
Components of New FrameworkLand use change module
Uses pre-field FIA land use information
Stand dynamics module Grows stands over short time steps through stand age matrix with
associated changes in carbon densities by pool
Operates at regional scale and summarized at national level Growth and land use dynamics parametrized at regional scales
Framework enables short term projections (~15 years to match US commitment periods), but also backcast ~10 years to meet UNFCCC guidelines
Leverage FIA’S Plot Network for LUC Analysis: Forest and Nonforest
Forests and Developments Gain from Loss of Agriculture
Forest land use Agriculture land use
Developed land use
~37% of Eastern US Forest C Sink Strength is from LUC
Disentangle C Changes from Forest/Land Use Dynamics and Disturbance
Coulston et al. 2015. Scientific Reports
Continue Incorporation of In Situ Observations (~2016 submission)
Soil organic carbon model from P3 data building F Floor model Understory vegetation model from P3/P2+ data Belowground model with climate coefficients Foliage model from legacy data (nat’l vol/biomass study)
Russell, M.B., et al. In Review. Climate-derived estimates of tree coarse root carbon in forests of the United States. Climatic ChangeClough, B.J., et al. In Review. Comparing tree foliage biomass models fitted to a multi-species, felled-tree biomass dataset for the United States.Russell, M.B., et al. 2014 Quantifying understory vegetation in the US Lake States: a proposed framework to inform regional forest carbon stocks. Forestry
First Peak at New Baseline
Coulston et al.
Timeline and Outputs
July 3rd: Draft Forest Sector GHG Report
Sept. 15th: Publish Forest Sector Report as FS Publication
October: Update and Submit Forest Sector Report to EPA
December: Forest Service GHG Report Informative to Paris COP
Final Thoughts
Growing Need for Carbon Information Means Maturing our Accounting Approach Refine stock estimation by pool Improve LUC, baselines, and attribution Annual inventory system moved through time
Informs expanding set of Forest Policy Issues (e.g., Land Use Planning and Carbon Cycle)
Annual Forest Inventory Program is CenterPoint and Future of Terrestrial Carbon Accounting in US
