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Preparing for Preparing for the Next Wavethe Next WavePreparing for Preparing for the Next Wavethe Next Wave

Jack Jack PowersPowersDirector, International Informatics InstituteDirector, International Informatics InstituteConference Chairman, Streaming Media East Conference Chairman, Streaming Media East Adjunct Professor, New York UniversityAdjunct Professor, New York University

Jack Jack PowersPowersDirector, International Informatics InstituteDirector, International Informatics InstituteConference Chairman, Streaming Media East Conference Chairman, Streaming Media East Adjunct Professor, New York UniversityAdjunct Professor, New York University

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Next WavesNext Waves Human Capital Hardware and Telecom in Stasis Internet Everywhere Pervasive Video Software Ascendant Real Time Enterprises Artificial Intelligence Ripples

Human Capital Hardware and Telecom in Stasis Internet Everywhere Pervasive Video Software Ascendant Real Time Enterprises Artificial Intelligence Ripples

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Dot Com BacklashDot Com Backlash

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Hardware DeflationHardware Deflation Walmart 850MHz Duron PC

— 128MB/10GB/CD/Eth/56k/Lindows — $299 plus monitor

HP Jornada Pocket PC — 64MB Color— $649.99

IA-54, Infiniband, HyperTransport,SANs: Storage Area NetworksGrid, Autonomous Computing

Walmart 850MHz Duron PC— 128MB/10GB/CD/Eth/56k/Lindows — $299 plus monitor

HP Jornada Pocket PC — 64MB Color— $649.99

IA-54, Infiniband, HyperTransport,SANs: Storage Area NetworksGrid, Autonomous Computing

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Telecom GlutTelecom Glut NextWave, Teligent, 360Networks, Covad,

Excite@Home ... $55B JDS Uniphase, $20B Nortel Jack’s House

— Cable Modem 3.2/1 $40/mo— Consumer DSL 1.5/.25 $40/mo— Commcl DSL 1.1/1.1 $200/mo

5.8/2.35 $280/mo ~4 T-1 lines, <$300/mo

NextWave, Teligent, 360Networks, Covad, Excite@Home ...

$55B JDS Uniphase, $20B Nortel Jack’s House

— Cable Modem 3.2/1 $40/mo— Consumer DSL 1.5/.25 $40/mo— Commcl DSL 1.1/1.1 $200/mo

5.8/2.35 $280/mo ~4 T-1 lines, <$300/mo

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Streaming Media AcceptanceStreaming Media Acceptance 35% of adult Americans are “streamies” 83 million have tried it 38 million streamed in the past month 28% of home users have broadband

— Arbitron/Edison Media Research

Peer-to-peer file sharing— 102 million Morpheus apps

35% of adult Americans are “streamies” 83 million have tried it 38 million streamed in the past month 28% of home users have broadband

— Arbitron/Edison Media Research

Peer-to-peer file sharing— 102 million Morpheus apps

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Internet EverywhereInternet Everywhere Immersive IP The Internet Home

— Broadband, residential gateways— Powerline, phoneline, wireless— Entertainment, collaboration

Embedded IP

Immersive IP The Internet Home

— Broadband, residential gateways— Powerline, phoneline, wireless— Entertainment, collaboration

Embedded IP

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Margharita Washing MachineMargharita Washing Machine

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Wirefree InfrastructureWirefree Infrastructure Mobile Phone Internet Fixed wireless

— 802.11b (11Mbps) 2.4Ghz— 802.11a (54MBps) 5 Ghz— 802.11g (22MBps) 2.4 Ghz— Bluetooth

— Ultra Wide Band (UWB) 100MBps• Not RF: Global Possibilities, Not Line of Sight

Mobile Phone Internet Fixed wireless

— 802.11b (11Mbps) 2.4Ghz— 802.11a (54MBps) 5 Ghz— 802.11g (22MBps) 2.4 Ghz— Bluetooth

— Ultra Wide Band (UWB) 100MBps• Not RF: Global Possibilities, Not Line of Sight

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3G Mobile Phones3G Mobile Phones Enhanced telephony 2Mbps data transfer Multimedia Messaging Service Streaming media

Enhanced telephony 2Mbps data transfer Multimedia Messaging Service Streaming media

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Pervasive Video

Jack Powers, Jack Powers, directordirector

The Future of TV Everywhere

in3.org

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Flat, Light & Cheap DisplaysFlat, Light & Cheap Displays CRT: Cathode Ray Tube LCD: Liquid Crystal Display Plasma Display

CRT: Cathode Ray Tube LCD: Liquid Crystal Display Plasma Display

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Consumer Access & ControlConsumer Access & Control DVD Players

— Component— Standalone

PVR: Personal Video RecordersTiVo, Replay, SnapStream

— Easy recording— Control live shows:

pause, slo-mo, instant replay— Network and save programs

DVD Players— Component— Standalone

PVR: Personal Video RecordersTiVo, Replay, SnapStream

— Easy recording— Control live shows:

pause, slo-mo, instant replay— Network and save programs

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Portable & Ubiquitous DevicesPortable & Ubiquitous Devices PDAs, mobile phones, cars PDAs, mobile phones, cars

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Portable & Ubiquitous DevicesPortable & Ubiquitous Devices Watches, pens, eyeglasses Watches, pens, eyeglasses

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Flat, Light & Cheap DisplaysFlat, Light & Cheap Displays OLED: Organic Light Emitting Diode OLED: Organic Light Emitting Diode

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Projection DisplaysProjection Displays From wall size to super size From wall size to super size

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Virtual SignsVirtual Signs Video signs in stores, ATMs, malls Video signs in stores, ATMs, malls

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TV UnpluggedTV Unplugged Wireless LAN and WAN networking

— WiFi, Bluetooth, UWB Pocket-sized TVs Pocket-sized cameras TV anywhere

Wireless LAN and WAN networking— WiFi, Bluetooth, UWB

Pocket-sized TVs Pocket-sized cameras TV anywhere

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Software AscendantSoftware Ascendant Hardware budgets slashed

— CTO as IT decision maker Hardware margins shrinking IT Dissatisfaction

Hardware budgets slashed— CTO as IT decision maker

Hardware margins shrinking IT Dissatisfaction

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Real Time EnterpriseReal Time Enterprise ERP, EAI, SCM, CRM, BAM, EI EI O Apply technology to run

faster and smarter ...— Real Time Finance— Real Time Customer Service— Real Time Retailing— Real Time Logistics

ERP, EAI, SCM, CRM, BAM, EI EI O Apply technology to run

faster and smarter ...— Real Time Finance— Real Time Customer Service— Real Time Retailing— Real Time Logistics

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Web Application ServicesWeb Application Services IBM Websphere Sun ONE Microsoft .NET

Lots of vendor push Not much user pull

IBM Websphere Sun ONE Microsoft .NET

Lots of vendor push Not much user pull

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Web Application ServicesWeb Application Services Network Software Platform SOAP: Simple Object Access Protocol UDDI: Universal Description, Discovery, and

Integration WSDL: Web Services Description Language WSFL: Web Service Flow Language

Network Software Platform SOAP: Simple Object Access Protocol UDDI: Universal Description, Discovery, and

Integration WSDL: Web Services Description Language WSFL: Web Service Flow Language

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Artificial IntelligenceArtificial Intelligence Systems that Learn, Judge and Act Expert Systems Machine Learning XML Standardization Intelligent Agents

— “Know” Bots— Shopping Bots— Personalization Bots

Systems that Learn, Judge and Act Expert Systems Machine Learning XML Standardization Intelligent Agents

— “Know” Bots— Shopping Bots— Personalization Bots

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Content AIContent AI Tagging program data in XML

Pictron, TV-Anytime— manually or semiautomatically

Tagging program data in XMLPictron, TV-Anytime— manually or semiautomatically

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Content AIContent AI Intelligent program guides LEARNING about user preferences overtly or

covertly JUDGING which programs are the

best match ACTING as an entertainment agent to retrieve,

record, search – or someday create – video content

Intelligent program guides LEARNING about user preferences overtly or

covertly JUDGING which programs are the

best match ACTING as an entertainment agent to retrieve,

record, search – or someday create – video content

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Content AIContent AI Machine Vision Machine Vision

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WavesWaves Human Capital Hardware and Telecom in Stasis Software Ascendant Real Time Enterprises Internet Everywhere Artificial Intelligence Ripples

Human Capital Hardware and Telecom in Stasis Software Ascendant Real Time Enterprises Internet Everywhere Artificial Intelligence Ripples

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RipplesRipples Internet Voice Telematics Browser wars Copyright, licensing and Open Source Privacy and trust issues

Internet Voice Telematics Browser wars Copyright, licensing and Open Source Privacy and trust issues

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Internet VoiceInternet Voice Voice Response

— VoiceXML Voice Control

— Conversa Voice Access

— TellMe, Etrieve, BeVocal

Voice Response— VoiceXML

Voice Control— Conversa

Voice Access— TellMe, Etrieve, BeVocal

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Browser WarsBrowser Wars Internet Explorer vs Netscape vs Opera Wireless Access Protocol Palm VII Web clipping Avantgo Limited appliances Voice

Internet Explorer vs Netscape vs Opera Wireless Access Protocol Palm VII Web clipping Avantgo Limited appliances Voice

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Real Time SocietyReal Time Society