1.International Economics Theory & Policy

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This page intentionally left blank 5. International Economics Theory & Policy NINTH EDITIONPaul R. Krugman Princeton UniversityMaurice Obstfeld University of California, BerkeleyMarc J. Melitz Harvard University 6. For Robin P.K. For My Family M.O. For Clair and Benjamin M.M. 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To obtain permission(s) to use material from this work, please submit a written request to Pearson Education, Inc., Permissions Department, 501 Boylston Street, Suite 900, Boston, MA 02116, fax your request to 617-671-3447, or e-mail at http://www.pearsoned.com/legal/permission.htm. Many of the designations by manufacturers and seller to distinguish their products are claimed as trademarks. Where those designations appear in this book, and the publisher was aware of a trademark claim, the designations have been printed in initial caps or all caps. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Krugman, Paul R. International economics : theory & policy/Paul R. Krugman, Maurice Obstfeld, Marc J. Melitz.9th ed. p. cm.(The Pearson series in economics) Rev. ed. of: International economics : theory and policy / Paul Krugman, Maurice Obstfeld. 8th ed. ISBN-13: 978-0-13-214665-4 ISBN-10: 0-13-214665-7 1. International economic relations. 2. International nance. I. Obstfeld, Maurice. II. Melitz, Marc J. III. Title. HF1359.K78 2012 337dc22 201003198810 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 ISBN 10: 0-13-214665-7 ISBN 13: 978-0-13-214665-4 7. Brief Contents Contents Preface 1 Part 1Introductionix xxi 1International Trade Theory102World Trade: An Overview103Labor Productivity and Comparative Advantage: The Ricardian Model244Specic Factors and Income Distribution505Resources and Trade: The Heckscher-Ohlin Model806The Standard Trade Model1117External Economies of Scale and the International Location of Production137Firms in the Global Economy: Export Decisions, Outsourcing, and Multinational Enterprises1558 Part 29International Trade Policy192The Instruments of Trade Policy19210The Political Economy of Trade Policy21911Trade Policy in Developing Countries25612Controversies in Trade Policy271Part 3Exchange Rates and Open-Economy Macroeconomics29313National Income Accounting and the Balance of Payments29314Exchange Rates and the Foreign Exchange Market: An Asset Approach32015Money, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates35416Price Levels and the Exchange Rate in the Long Run38417Output and the Exchange Rate in the Short Run42118Fixed Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange Intervention463Part 4International Macroeconomic Policy50419International Monetary Systems: An Historical Overview50420Optimum Currency Areas and the European Experience55721Financial Globalization: Opportunity and Crisis58622Developing Countries: Growth, Crisis, and Reform619 vii 8. viiiBrief ContentsMathematical Postscripts Postscript to Chapter 5: The Factor Proportions Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .661 Postscript to Chapter 6: The Trading World Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .665 Postscript to Chapter 8: The Monopolistic Competition Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .673 Postscript to Chapter 21: Risk Aversion and International Portfolio Diversication . . . . . . . . . . .675Credits683Index685 9. Contents Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .xxi 1 Introduction1What Is International Economics About? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3 The Gains from Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 The Pattern of Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 How Much Trade? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Balance of Payments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 Exchange Rate Determination . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 International Policy Coordination . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 The International Capital Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7International Economics: Trade and Money . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8Part 1International Trade Theory 2 World Trade: An Overview10 10Who Trades with Whom? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10 Size Matters: The Gravity Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11 Using the Gravity Model: Looking for Anomalies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13 Impediments to Trade: Distance, Barriers, and Borders . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14The Changing Pattern of World Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16 Has the World Gotten Smaller? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16 What Do We Trade? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17 Service Outsourcing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19Do Old Rules Still Apply? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21 3 Labor Productivity and Comparative Advantage: The Ricardian Model24The Concept of Comparative Advantage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25 A One-Factor Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .26 Production Possibilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .27 Relative Prices and Supply . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .28Trade in a One-Factor World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29 Determining the Relative Price After Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .30 BOX:Comparative Advantage in Practice: The Case of Babe Ruth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .33The Gains from Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .34 A Note on Relative Wages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .35 BOX: The Losses from Nontrade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .36Misconceptions About Comparative Advantage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .37 Productivity and Competitiveness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .37 The Pauper Labor Argument . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .37 BOX: Do Wages Reect Productivity? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .38 Exploitation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .39Comparative Advantage with Many Goods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .40 Setting Up the Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .40 Relative Wages and Specialization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .40 Determining the Relative Wage in the Multigood Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .42 ix 10. xContentsAdding Transport Costs and Nontraded Goods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .43 Empirical Evidence on the Ricardian Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .45 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .47 4 Specic Factors and Income Distribution50The Specic Factors Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .51 BOX: What Is a Specic Factor? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .52 Assumptions of the Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .52 Production Possibilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .53 Prices, Wages, and Labor Allocation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .56 Relative Prices and the Distribution of Income . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .60International Trade in the Specic Factors Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .62 Income Distribution and the Gains from Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .63 The Political Economy of Trade: A Preliminary View . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 CASE STUDY: Trade and Unemployment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .66 Income Distribution and Trade Politics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .68International Labor Mobility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .69 CASE STUDY: Wage Convergence in the Age of Mass Migration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .70 CASE STUDY: Immigration and the U.S. Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .71 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .73 Appendix: Further Details on Specic Factors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .77 Marginal and Total Product . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .77 Relative Prices and the Distribution of Income . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .78 5 Resources and Trade: The Heckscher-Ohlin Model80A Model of a Two-Factor Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .81 Prices and Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .81 Choosing the Mix of Inputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .84 Factor Prices and Goods Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .86 Resources and Output . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .88Effects of International Trade Between Two-Factor Economies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .89 Relative Prices and the Pattern of Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .90 Trade and the Distribution of Income . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .91 CASE STUDY: North-South Trade and Income Inequality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .92 Factor-Price Equalization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .97Empirical Evidence on the Heckscher-Ohlin Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .98 Trade in Goods as a Substitute for Trade in Factors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .98 Patterns of Exports Between Developed and Developing Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .101 Implications of the Tests . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .102Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .104 Appendix: Factor Prices, Goods Prices, and Production Decisions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .107 Choice of Technique . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .107 Goods Prices and Factor Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .108 More on Resources and Output . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .109 6 The Standard Trade Model111A Standard Model of a Trading Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .112 Production Possibilities and Relative Supply . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .112 Relative Prices and Demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .113 The Welfare Effect of Changes in the Terms of Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .116 Determining Relative Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .117 Economic Growth: A Shift of the RS curve . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .117 11. xiContentsGrowth and the Production Possibility Frontier . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .119 World Relative Supply and the Terms of Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .119 International Effects of Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .121 CASE STUDY: Has the Growth of Newly Industrializing CountriesHurt Advanced Nations? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .122 Tariffs and Export Subsidies: Simultaneous Shifts in RS and RD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .124 Relative Demand and Supply Effects of a Tariff . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .125 Effects of an Export Subsidy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .126 Implications of Terms of Trade Effects: Who Gains and Who Loses? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .126International Borrowing and Lending . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .127 Intertemporal Production Possibilities and Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .128 The Real Interest Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .128 Intertemporal Comparative Advantage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .130Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .130 Appendix: More on Intertemporal Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .134 7 External Economies of Scale and the International Location of Production137Economies of Scale and International Trade: An Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .138 Economies of Scale and Market Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .139 The Theory of External Economies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .140 Specialized Suppliers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .140 Labor Market Pooling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .141 Knowledge Spillovers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .142 External Economies and Market Equilibrium . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .142External Economies and International Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .143 External Economies, Output, and Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .143 External Economies and the Pattern of Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .145 BOX: Holding the World Together . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .147 Trade and Welfare with External Economies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .147 Dynamic Increasing Returns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .149Interregional Trade and Economic Geography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .150 BOX: Tinseltown Economics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .151 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .152 8 Firms in the Global Economy: Export Decisions, Outsourcing,and Multinational Enterprises155The Theory of Imperfect Competition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .156 Monopoly: A Brief Review . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .157 Monopolistic Competition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .159Monopolistic Competition and Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .164 The Effects of Increased Market Size . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .164 Gains from an Integrated Market: A Numerical Example . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .166 The Signicance of Intra-Industry Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .169 CASE STUDY: Intra-Industry Trade in Action: The North AmericanAuto Pact of 1964 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .171 Firm Responses to Trade: Winners, Losers, and Industry Performance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .172 Performance Differences Across Producers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .172 The Effects of Increased Market Size . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .174Trade Costs and Export Decisions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .176 Dumping . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .178 CASE STUDY: Antidumping as Protectionism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .179 Multinationals and Outsourcing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .180 12. xiiContentsCASE STUDY:Patterns of Foreign Direct Investment Flows Around the World . . . . . . . . . .180The Firms Decision Regarding Foreign Direct Investment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .183 Outsourcing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .185 Consequences of Multinationals and Foreign Outsourcing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .186Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .187 Appendix: Determining Marginal Revenue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .191Part 2International Trade Policy 9 The Instruments of Trade Policy192 192Basic Tariff Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .192 Supply, Demand, and Trade in a Single Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .193 Effects of a Tariff . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .195 Measuring the Amount of Protection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .196Costs and Benets of a Tariff . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .198 Consumer and Producer Surplus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .198 Measuring the Costs and Benets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .199 BOX: Tariffs for the Long Haul . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .202Other Instruments of Trade Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .202 Export Subsidies: Theory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .203 CASE STUDY:Europes Common Agricultural Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .204Import Quotas: Theory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .205 CASE STUDY: An Import Quota in Practice: U.S. Sugar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .206 Voluntary Export Restraints . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .208 CASE STUDY: A Voluntary Export Restraint in Practice: Japanese Autos . . . . . . . . . . . . . .208 Local Content Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .209 BOX: American Buses, Made in Hungary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .210 Other Trade Policy Instruments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .210The Effects of Trade Policy: A Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .211 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .211 Appendix: Tariffs and Import Quotas in the Presence of Monopoly . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .215 The Model with Free Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .215 The Model with a Tariff . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .216 The Model with an Import Quota . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .217 Comparing a Tariff and a Quota . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .217 10 The Political Economy of Trade Policy219The Case for Free Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .220 Free Trade and Efciency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .220 Additional Gains from Free Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .221 Rent-Seeking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .222 Political Argument for Free Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .222 CASE STUDY: The Gains from 1992 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .223National Welfare Arguments Against Free Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .224 The Terms of Trade Argument for a Tariff . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .225 The Domestic Market Failure Argument Against Free Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .226 How Convincing Is the Market Failure Argument? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .227Income Distribution and Trade Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .229 Electoral Competition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .229 Collective Action . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .230 BOX: Politicians for Sale: Evidence from the 1990s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .231 Modeling the Political Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .232 Who Gets Protected? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .233 13. ContentsxiiiInternational Negotiations and Trade Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .234 The Advantages of Negotiation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .235 International Trade Agreements: A Brief History . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .236 The Uruguay Round . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .238 Trade Liberalization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .238 Administrative Reforms: From the GATT to the WTO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .239 Benets and Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .240 BOX: Settling a Disputeand Creating One . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .241 CASE STUDY: Testing the WTOs Mettle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .242The Doha Disappointment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .243 BOX: Do Agricultural Subsidies Hurt the Third World? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .244 Preferential Trading Agreements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .245 BOX:Free Trade Area versus Customs Union . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .246 Do Trade Preferences Have Appeal? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .248 CASE STUDY: Trade Diversion in South America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .249 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .249 Appendix: Proving That the Optimum Tariff Is Positive . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .253 BOX:Demand and Supply . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .253 The Tariff and Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .253 The Tariff and Domestic Welfare . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .254 11 Trade Policy in Developing Countries256Import-Substituting Industrialization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .257 The Infant Industry Argument . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .258 Promoting Manufacturing Through Protection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .259 CASE STUDY: Mexico Abandons Import-SubstitutingIndustrialization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .261 Results of Favoring Manufacturing: Problems of Import-Substituting Industrialization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .262 Trade Liberalization Since 1985 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .263 Trade and Growth: Takeoff in Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .265 BOX: Indias Boom . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .267 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .268 12 Controversies in Trade Policy271Sophisticated Arguments for Activist Trade Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .272 Technology and Externalities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .272 Imperfect Competition and Strategic Trade Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .274 BOX: A Warning from Intels Founder . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .277 CASE STUDY: When the Chips Were Up . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .278Globalization and Low-Wage Labor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .279 The Anti-Globalization Movement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .280 Trade and Wages Revisited . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .280 Labor Standards and Trade Negotiations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .282 Environmental and Cultural Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .283 The WTO and National Independence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .284 CASE STUDY: Bare Feet, Hot Metal, and Globalization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .285Globalization and the Environment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .286 Globalization, Growth, and Pollution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .286 The Problem of Pollution Havens . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .287 The Carbon Tariff Dispute . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .289Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .290 14. xivPart 3ContentsExchange Rates and Open-Economy Macroeconomics 13 National Income Accounting and the Balance of Payments293 293The National Income Accounts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .295 National Product and National Income . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .296 Capital Depreciation and International Transfers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .297 Gross Domestic Product . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .297National Income Accounting for an Open Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .298 Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .298 Investment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .298 Government Purchases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .299 The National Income Identity for an Open Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .299 An Imaginary Open Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .299 The Current Account and Foreign Indebtedness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .300 Saving and the Current Account . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .302 Private and Government Saving . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .303 CASE STUDY: Government Decit Reduction May Not Increasethe Current Account Surplus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .304 The Balance of Payments Accounts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .306 Examples of Paired Transactions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .307 The Fundamental Balance of Payments Identity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .308 The Current Account, Once Again . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .309 The Capital Account . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .310 The Financial Account . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .310 Net Errors and Omissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .311 Ofcial Reserve Transactions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .312 CASE STUDY: The Assets and Liabilities of the Worlds Biggest Debtor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .313Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .316 14 Exchange Rates and the Foreign Exchange Market: An Asset Approach320Exchange Rates and International Transactions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .321 Domestic and Foreign Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .321 Exchange Rates and Relative Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .323The Foreign Exchange Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .324 The Actors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .324 Characteristics of the Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .325 Spot Rates and Forward Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .326 Foreign Exchange Swaps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .328 Futures and Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .328The Demand for Foreign Currency Assets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .328 Assets and Asset Returns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .329 BOX:Nondeliverable Forward Exchange Trading in Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .330Risk and Liquidity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .332 Interest Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .332 Exchange Rates and Asset Returns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .334 A Simple Rule . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .334 Return, Risk, and Liquidity in the Foreign Exchange Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .336Equilibrium in the Foreign Exchange Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .337 Interest Parity: The Basic Equilibrium Condition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .337 How Changes in the Current Exchange Rate Affect Expected Returns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .338 The Equilibrium Exchange Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .339Interest Rates, Expectations, and Equilibrium . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .341 The Effect of Changing Interest Rates on the Current Exchange Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .342 The Effect of Changing Expectations on the Current Exchange Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .343 15. xvContentsCASE STUDY: What Explains the Carry Trade? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .344 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .346 Appendix: Forward Exchange Rates and Covered Interest Parity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .35115 Money, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates354Money Dened: A Brief Review . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .355 Money as a Medium of Exchange . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .355 Money as a Unit of Account . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .355 Money as a Store of Value . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .356 What Is Money? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .356 How the Money Supply Is Determined . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .356The Demand for Money by Individuals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .357 Expected Return . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .357 Risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .358 Liquidity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .358Aggregate Money Demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .358 The Equilibrium Interest Rate: The Interaction of Money Supply and Demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .360 Equilibrium in the Money Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .360 Interest Rates and the Money Supply . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .362 Output and the Interest Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .363The Money Supply and the Exchange Rate in the Short Run . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .363 Linking Money, the Interest Rate, and the Exchange Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .364 U.S. Money Supply and the Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .365 Europes Money Supply and the Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .366Money, the Price Level, and the Exchange Rate in the Long Run . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .368 Money and Money Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .369 The Long-Run Effects of Money Supply Changes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .369 Empirical Evidence on Money Supplies and Price Levels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .370 Money and the Exchange Rate in the Long Run . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .371Ination and Exchange Rate Dynamics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .372 Short-Run Price Rigidity versus Long-Run Price Flexibility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .372 BOX:Money Supply Growth and Hyperination in Bolivia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .374Permanent Money Supply Changes and the Exchange Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .374 Exchange Rate Overshooting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .377 CASE STUDY: Can Higher Ination Lead to Currency Appreciation?The Implications of Ination Targeting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .378 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .381 16 Price Levels and the Exchange Rate in the Long Run384The Law of One Price . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .385 Purchasing Power Parity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .386 The Relationship Between PPP and the Law of One Price . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .386 Absolute PPP and Relative PPP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .387A Long-Run Exchange Rate Model Based on PPP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .388 The Fundamental Equation of the Monetary Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .388 Ongoing Ination, Interest Parity, and PPP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .390 The Fisher Effect . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .391Empirical Evidence on PPP and the Law of One Price . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .394 Explaining the Problems with PPP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .395 Trade Barriers and Nontradables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .396 Departures from Free Competition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .397 Differences in Consumption Patterns and Price Level Measurement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .397 16. xviContentsBOX:Some Meaty Evidence on the Law of One Price . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .398PPP in the Short Run and in the Long Run . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .400 CASE STUDY: Why Price Levels Are Lower in Poorer Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .401Beyond Purchasing Power Parity: A General Model of Long-Run Exchange Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .403 The Real Exchange Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .404 Demand, Supply, and the Long-Run Real Exchange Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .405 BOX: Sticky Prices and the Law of One Price: Evidencefrom Scandinavian Duty-Free Shops . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .406 Nominal and Real Exchange Rates in Long-Run Equilibrium . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .408International Interest Rate Differences and the Real Exchange Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .410 Real Interest Parity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .412 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .413 Appendix: The Fisher Effect, the Interest Rate, and the Exchange Rate Under the Flexible-Price Monetary Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .418 17 Output and the Exchange Rate in the Short Run421Determinants of Aggregate Demand in an Open Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .422 Determinants of Consumption Demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .422 Determinants of the Current Account . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .423 How Real Exchange Rate Changes Affect the Current Account . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .424 How Disposable Income Changes Affect the Current Account . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .424The Equation of Aggregate Demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .425 The Real Exchange Rate and Aggregate Demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .425 Real Income and Aggregate Demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .425How Output Is Determined in the Short Run . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .426 Output Market Equilibrium in the Short Run: The DD Schedule . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .428 Output, the Exchange Rate, and Output Market Equilibrium . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .428 Deriving the DD Schedule . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .429 Factors That Shift the DD Schedule . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .429Asset Market Equilibrium in the Short Run: The AA Schedule . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .432 Output, the Exchange Rate, and Asset Market Equilibrium . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .432 Deriving the AA Schedule . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .434 Factors That Shift the AA Schedule . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .434Short-Run Equilibrium for an Open Economy: Putting the DD and AA Schedules Together . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .435 Temporary Changes in Monetary and Fiscal Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .437 Monetary Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .438 Fiscal Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .438 Policies to Maintain Full Employment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .439Ination Bias and Other Problems of Policy Formulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .441 Permanent Shifts in Monetary and Fiscal Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .442 A Permanent Increase in the Money Supply . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .442 Adjustment to a Permanent Increase in the Money Supply . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .442 A Permanent Fiscal Expansion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .444Macroeconomic Policies and the Current Account . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .446 Gradual Trade Flow Adjustment and Current Account Dynamics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .447 The J-Curve . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .447 Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Ination . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .449 BOX: Exchange Rates and the Current Account . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .450The Liquidity Trap . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .451 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .454 17. ContentsxviiAppendix 1: Intertemporal Trade and Consumption Demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .458 Appendix 2: The Marshall-Lerner Condition and Empirical Estimates of Trade Elasticities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .460 18 Fixed Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange Intervention463Why Study Fixed Exchange Rates? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .464 Central Bank Intervention and the Money Supply . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .465 The Central Bank Balance Sheet and the Money Supply . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .465 Foreign Exchange Intervention and the Money Supply . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .467 Sterilization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .467 The Balance of Payments and the Money Supply . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .468How the Central Bank Fixes the Exchange Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .469 Foreign Exchange Market Equilibrium Under a Fixed Exchange Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .469 Money Market Equilibrium Under a Fixed Exchange Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .470 A Diagrammatic Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .471Stabilization Policies with a Fixed Exchange Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .472 Monetary Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .472 Fiscal Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .473 Changes in the Exchange Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .474 Adjustment to Fiscal Policy and Exchange Rate Changes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .476Balance of Payments Crises and Capital Flight . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .476 Managed Floating and Sterilized Intervention . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .479 Perfect Asset Substitutability and the Ineffectiveness of Sterilized Intervention . . . . . . . . . . . . . .479 BOX:Brazils 19981999 Balance of Payments Crisis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .480Foreign Exchange Market Equilibrium Under Imperfect Asset Substitutability . . . . . . . . . . . . . .481 The Effects of Sterilized Intervention with Imperfect Asset Substitutability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .482 Evidence on the Effects of Sterilized Intervention . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .483Reserve Currencies in the World Monetary System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .484 The Mechanics of a Reserve Currency Standard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .485 The Asymmetric Position of the Reserve Center . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .485The Gold Standard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .486 The Mechanics of a Gold Standard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .486 Symmetric Monetary Adjustment Under a Gold Standard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .487 Benets and Drawbacks of the Gold Standard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .487 The Bimetallic Standard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .488 The Gold Exchange Standard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .489 CASE STUDY: The Demand for International Reserves . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .489Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .493 Appendix 1: Equilibrium in the Foreign Exchange Market with Imperfect Asset Substitutability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .498 Demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .498 Supply . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .499 Equilibrium . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .499Appendix 2: The Timing of Balance of Payments Crises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .501Part 4International Macroeconomic Policy 19 International Monetary Systems: An Historical Overview504 504Macroeconomic Policy Goals in an Open Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .505 Internal Balance: Full Employment and Price Level Stability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .506 External Balance: The Optimal Level of the Current Account . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .507Classifying Monetary Systems: The Open-Economy Trilemma . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .509 18. xviiiContentsInternational Macroeconomic Policy Under the Gold Standard, 18701914 . . . . . . . . . . .510 Origins of the Gold Standard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .511 External Balance Under the Gold Standard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .511 The Price-Specie-Flow Mechanism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .511 The Gold Standard Rules of the Game: Myth and Reality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .512 Internal Balance Under the Gold Standard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .513 BOX: Hume versus the Mercantilists . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .514 CASE STUDY: The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Regimes:Conict Over Americas Monetary Standard During the 1890s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .514 The Interwar Years, 19181939 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .516 The Fleeting Return to Gold . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .516 International Economic Disintegration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .516 CASE STUDY: The International Gold Standard and the Great Depression . . . . . . . . . . . . .517The Bretton Woods System and the International Monetary Fund . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .518 Goals and Structure of the IMF . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .519 Convertibility and the Expansion of Private Financial Flows . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .520 Speculative Capital Flows and Crises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .521Analyzing Policy Options for Reaching Internal and External Balance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .521 Maintaining Internal Balance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .522 Maintaining External Balance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .523 Expenditure-Changing and Expenditure-Switching Policies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .523The External Balance Problem of the United States Under Bretton Woods . . . . . . . . . . . .525 CASE STUDY: The End of Bretton Woods, Worldwide Ination, and the Transition to Floating Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .526 The Mechanics of Imported Ination . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .528 Assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .529The Case for Floating Exchange Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .529 Monetary Policy Autonomy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .530 Symmetry. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .531 Exchange Rates as Automatic Stabilizers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .531 Exchange Rates and External Balance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .533 CASE STUDY: The First Years of Floating Rates, 19731990 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .533Macroeconomic Interdependence Under a Floating Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .537 CASE STUDY: Transformation and Crisis in the World Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .538 What Has Been Learned Since 1973? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .544 Monetary Policy Autonomy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .544 Symmetry. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .545 The Exchange Rate as an Automatic Stabilizer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .546 External Balance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .546 The Problem of Policy Coordination . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .547Are Fixed Exchange Rates Even an Option for Most Countries? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .547 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .548 Appendix: International Policy Coordination Failures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .554 20 Optimum Currency Areas and the European Experience557How the European Single Currency Evolved . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .559 What Has Driven European Monetary Cooperation? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .559 The European Monetary System, 19791998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .560 German Monetary Dominance and the Credibility Theory of the EMS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .561 Market Integration Initiatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .562 European Economic and Monetary Union . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .563The Euro and Economic Policy in the Euro Zone . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .564 The Maastricht Convergence Criteria and the Stability and Growth Pact . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .564 19. ContentsxixThe European System of Central Banks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .565 The Revised Exchange Rate Mechanism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .566The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .566 Economic Integration and the Benets of a Fixed Exchange Rate Area: The GG Schedule . . . . .566 Economic Integration and the Costs of a Fixed Exchange Rate Area: The LL Schedule . . . . . . . .568 The Decision to Join a Currency Area: Putting the GG and LL Schedules Together . . . . . . . . . . .570 What Is an Optimum Currency Area? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .572 CASE STUDY: Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .572The Future of EMU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .578 BOX: The Euro Zone Debt Crisis of 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .580 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .582 21 Financial Globalization: Opportunity and Crisis586The International Capital Market and the Gains from Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .587 Three Types of Gain from Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .587 Risk Aversion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .588 Portfolio Diversication as a Motive for International Asset Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .589 The Menu of International Assets: Debt versus Equity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .590International Banking and the International Capital Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .590 The Structure of the International Capital Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .591 Offshore Banking and Offshore Currency Trading . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .592 The Growth of Eurocurrency Trading . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .593 The Importance of Regulatory Asymmetries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .594 The Shadow Banking System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .594Regulating International Banking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .595 The Problem of Bank Failure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .595 CASE STUDY:Moral Hazard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .597Difculties in Regulating International Banking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .598 BOX: The Simple Algebra of Moral Hazard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .599 International Regulatory Cooperation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .599 CASE STUDY: Two Episodes of Market Turmoil: LTCM and the Global FinancialCrisis of 20072009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .601 Foreign Exchange Instability and Central Bank Swap Lines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .606 How Well Have International Financial Markets Allocated Capital and Risk? . . . . . . . . .608 BOX:The Extent of International Portfolio Diversication . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .608 The Extent of Intertemporal Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .610 Onshore-Offshore Interest Differentials . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .611 The Efciency of the Foreign Exchange Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .611Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .615 22 Developing Countries: Growth, Crisis, and Reform619Income, Wealth, and Growth in the World Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .620 The Gap Between Rich and Poor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .620 Has the World Income Gap Narrowed Over Time? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .621Structural Features of Developing Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .623 Developing-Country Borrowing and Debt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .626 The Economics of Financial Inows to Developing Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .626 The Problem of Default . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .627 Alternative Forms of Financial Inow . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .629 The Problem of Original Sin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .631 The Debt Crisis of the 1980s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .632 Reforms, Capital Inows, and the Return of Crisis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .633East Asia: Success and Crisis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .636 The East Asian Economic Miracle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .636 20. xxContentsBOX:Why Have Developing Countries Accumulated Such High Levels of International Reserves? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .637Asian Weaknesses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .639 BOX:What Did East Asia Do Right? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .640The Asian Financial Crisis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .641 Spillover to Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .642 CASE STUDY: Can Currency Boards Make Fixed Exchange Rates Credible? . . . . . . . . . . .644Lessons of Developing-Country Crises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .646 Reforming the Worlds Financial Architecture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .647 Capital Mobility and the Trilemma of the Exchange Rate Regime . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .648 Prophylactic Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .649 Coping with Crisis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .650 CASE STUDY: Chinas Undervalued Currency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .651Understanding Global Capital Flows and the Global Distribution of Income: Is Geography Destiny? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .653 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .656Mathematical Postscripts661Postscript to Chapter 5: The Factor Proportions Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .661 Factor Prices and Costs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .661 Goods Prices and Factor Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .663 Factor Supplies and Outputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .664Postscript to Chapter 6: The Trading World Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .665 Supply, Demand, and Equilibrium . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .665 Supply, Demand, and the Stability of Equilibrium . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .667 Effects of Changes in Supply and Demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .669 Economic Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .669 A Transfer of Income . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .670 A Tariff . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .671Postscript to Chapter 8: The Monopolistic Competition Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .673 Postscript to Chapter 21: Risk Aversion and International Portfolio Diversication . . . . . . . . .675 An Analytical Derivation of the Optimal Portfolio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .675 A Diagrammatic Derivation of the Optimal Portfolio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .676 The Effects of Changing Rates of Return . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .679Credits683Index685Online Appendices (www.pearsonhighered.com/krugman) Appendix A to Chapter 6: International Transfers of Income and the Terms of Trade The Transfer Problem Effects of a Transfer on the Terms of Trade Presumptions About the Terms of Trade Effects of TransfersAppendix B to Chapter 6: Representing International Equilibrium with Offer Curves Deriving a Countrys Offer Curve International EquilibriumAppendix A to Chapter 9: Tariff Analysis in General Equilibrium A Tariff in a Small Country A Tariff in a Large CountryAppendix A to Chapter 17: The IS-LM Model and the DD-AA Model Appendix A to Chapter 18: The Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments 21. Preface The global nancial turmoil that began in August 2007 escalated into a full-blown nancial crisis about nine months after the last edition of International Economics: Theory & Policy went to press. This ninth edition therefore comes out at a time when we are more aware than ever before of how events in the global economy inuence each countrys economic fortunes, policies, and political debates. The world that emerged from World War II was one in which trade, nancial, and even communication links between countries were limited. More than a decade into the 21st century, however, the picture is very different. Globalization has arrived, big time. International trade in goods and services has expanded steadily over the past six decades thanks to declines in shipping and communication costs, globally negotiated reductions in government trade barriers, the widespread outsourcing of production activities, and a greater awareness of foreign cultures and products. New and better communications technologies, notably the Internet, have revolutionized the way people in all countries obtain and exchange information. International trade in nancial assets such as currencies, stocks, and bonds has expanded at a much faster pace even than international product trade. This process brings benets for owners of wealth but also creates risks of contagious nancial instability. Those risks were realized during the recent global nancial crisis, which spread quickly across national borders and has played out at huge cost to the world economy. Of all the changes on the international scene in recent decades, however, perhaps the biggest one remains the emergence of Chinaa development that is already redening the international balance of economic and political power in the coming century. Imagine the astonishment of the generation that lived through the depressed 1930s as adults, had its members been able to foresee the shape of todays world economy! Nonetheless, the economic concerns that continue to cause international debate have not changed that much from those that dominated the 1930s, nor indeed since they were rst analyzed by economists more than two centuries ago. What are the merits of free trade among nations compared with protectionism? What causes countries to run trade surpluses or decits with their trading partners, and how are such imbalances resolved over time? What causes banking and currency crises in open economies, what causes nancial contagion between economies, and how should governments handle international nancial instability? How can governments avoid unemployment and ination, what role do exchange rates play in their efforts, and how can countries best cooperate to achieve their economic goals? As always in international economics, the interplay of events and ideas has led to new modes of analysis. In turn, these analytical advances, however abstruse they may seem at rst, ultimately do end up playing a major role in governmental policies, in international negotiations, and in peoples everyday lives. Globalization has made citizens of all countries much more aware than ever before of the worldwide economic forces that inuence their fortunes, and globalization is here to stay.New to the Ninth Edition We are delighted to welcome Marc Melitz of Harvard University to our author team beginning in this ninth edition of International Economics: Theory & Policy. We have thoroughly updated the content and extensively revised several chapters. These revisions respond both to users suggestions and to some important developments on the theoretical and practical sides of international economics. The most far-reaching changes are the following: Chapter 4, Specic Factors and Income Distribution In response to popular demand, this chapter reinstates the specific factors model of trade, which allows for mobile, xxi 22. xxiiPrefacegeneral-purpose factors of production as well as factors that are unable to move between different industries. Aside from providing a simple and intuitively appealing account of why countries trade, the model is a useful tool for illustrating how trade creates clear losers as well as winners. This revised chapter also covers international labor movements and immigration within a theoretical framework based on the specific factors model. Chapter 5, Resources and Trade: The Heckscher-Ohlin Model This edition offers expanded coverage of the effects on wage inequality of North-South trade, of technological change, and of outsourcing. Chapter 6, The Standard Trade Model This chapter now contains our model of intertemporal trade. Global equilibrium is analyzed using the relative supplyrelative demand framework rather than offer curves. Chapter 8, Firms in the Global Economy: Export Decisions, Outsourcing, and Multinational Enterprises The second half of this chapter is entirely new and covers important recent research advances on the role of rms in international trade. Among the topics we feature are new models with performance differences across rms, discussion of how economic integration generates both winners and losers among rms in the same industry, and the productivity gains from economic integration. The chapter also develops models of multinational rms and of outsourcing. Chapter 9, The Instruments of Trade Policy This chapter features an updated treatment of the effects of trade restrictions on United States rms. Chapter 13, National Income Accounting and the Balance of Payments The discussion of balance of payments accounting has been thoroughly revised to reect the recommendations in the sixth edition of the IMFs Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual. These conventions have been widely adopted internationally and will be phased in over the next few years in the ofcial United States statistics on international transactions. Chapter 18, Fixed Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange Intervention The recent nancial crisis has led a number of major central banks to lower target interest rates to, or close to, the zero lower bound. This chapter integrates the case of the liquidity trap into the development of the DD-AA model, thereby allowing the instructor to introduce the topic of unconventional monetary policies. Chapter 19, International Monetary Systems: An Historical Overview This new chapter merges streamlined versions of prior Chapters 18 and 19, which covered, respectively, pre-1973 and post-1973 international monetary history. The chapter takes the open-economy trilemma, previously introduced in Chapter 21, as a guiding framework for understanding the evolution of the international monetary system since the late 19th century. The chapter features coverage of the macroeconomic antecedents and consequences of the global nancial crisis of 20072009. Chapter 21, Financial Globalization: Opportunity and Crisis The chapter contains extended discussion of shadow banking systems, moral hazard, and nancial aspects of the 20072009 global crisis. 23. PrefacexxiiiIn addition to these structural changes, we have updated the book in other ways to maintain current relevance. Thus we examine linkages between trade and unemployment (Chapter 4); we review recent trends in foreign direct investment (Chapter 8); we discuss the carry trade in light of uncovered interest parity (Chapter 14); we describe the euro zone sovereign debt crisis that started in 2010 (Chapter 20); and we explain how the nancial crisis of 20072009 gave rise to a global dollar shortage, leading central banks to establish an unprecedented network of currency swap lines (Chapter 21).About the Book The idea of writing this book came out of our experience in teaching international economics to undergraduates and business students since the late 1970s. We perceived two main challenges in teaching. The rst was to communicate to students the exciting intellectual advances in this dynamic eld. The second was to show how the development of international economic theory has traditionally been shaped by the need to understand the changing world economy and analyze actual problems in international economic policy. We found that published textbooks did not adequately meet these challenges. Too often, international economics textbooks confront students with a bewildering array of special models and assumptions from which basic lessons are difcult to extract. Because many of these special models are outmoded, students are left puzzled about the real-world relevance of the analysis. As a result, many textbooks often leave a gap between the somewhat antiquated material to be covered in class and the exciting issues that dominate current research and policy debates. That gap has widened dramatically as the importance of international economic problemsand enrollments in international economics courseshave grown. This book is our attempt to provide an up-to-date and understandable analytical framework for illuminating current events and bringing the excitement of international economics into the classroom. In analyzing both the real and monetary sides of the subject, our approach has been to build up, step by step, a simple, unied framework for communicating the grand traditional insights as well as the newest ndings and approaches. To help