There is light at the end of the Covid-19 tunnel. I’m just hoping it’s not anoncoming train (it's being so cheerful that keeps me going). But seriously,the dramatic reduction in cases in Switzerland and in most of Europe, isreally good news. Hopefully, if we manage things properly, the worst isbehind us and we can find a way to live with the pandemic whileenjoying a reasonably normal life.

Unsurprisingly, this edition of the Newsletter has a strong Covid-19flavour. Even the sports and humour sections are substantiallyCovid themed. That wasn’t my plan, but it’s how it evolvedbecause of the focus of the contributors. It’s also a bit shorteras there is no travel section and, of course, no reporting ofevents held. Still, I hope you enjoy what’s there.

As for the IMCZ, we are looking to return to normal as far as possible.All our in-person events have been suspended for the duration of

lockdown and we’ve been running a virtual Stammtisch everyThursday in place of our regular meetings. We will now resumeour planning for our traditional Summer Event and for SpecialStammtisch meetings and find ways to make them happenwithin whatever constraints are required to contain thepandemic. We hope to see as many of you as possible atthese events.

In the meantime, enjoy the relaxed rules on associationwith others, but stay safe. The virus is still with us andwe need to work together to keep it at a manageablelevel so we don’t have to experience lockdown again.

Alan Cattell

I N T E R N A T I O N A L M E N ’ S C L U B O F Z U G , P . O . B O X 7 2 1 2 , 6 3 0 1 Z U G� � � � Editor: Alan Cattell • email: Newsletter@imcz.club � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �

JUNE / JULY 2020IMCZNEWS

www.imcz.club

IN THIS ISSUE P A G E 1• Editorial H E A LT H P. 2 • Epidemics and Pandemics in History • Protein Transition: Artificial Meat And Other Substitutes B US I N ESS / F I NANCE P. 3 • Investment Commentary July 2020 S C I ENCE / T ECHNOLOGY P. 5 • How to live with SARS-CoV-2 S P O R T S P. 1 3 • Dual Use? Don’t put away that ski mask, just yet! H U M O U R P. 1 5 T I T B I T S P. 1 6 • Member’s Marketplace • IMCZ Rates • Corporate Space

EDITORIAL

F U T U R E E V E N T SIn the immediate future we’ll continue with the virtual Stammtisch meetings, every Thursday at 18:00on Zoom. But now that the lockdown is being relaxed, we will be starting up our programme of eventsagain. We still need to respect the measures which have been defined by each branch – which we don’tyet know fully. We’ll be having a Board meeting early in June and shortly after that we’ll announce howwe’re going forward and start publicising the events which we’ve organised. So keep an eye on theevents section of the website. We’re assuming we can restart the regular Stammtisch from 18th June,but please check the website for up to date information.Welcome to the new normal…See you soonAlan

Z I W CThe Zug International Woman’s Club recently held its AGM remotely by post and confirmed its newBoard appointments. On behalf of the IMCZ, I would like to congratulate Cristina Rocco on her electionas President of the ZIWC and also all the other members of their Board on their appointments. TheIMCZ looks forward to continuing the collaboration between our two Clubs with the aim of supportingeach other's events and also promoting new joint events.Bill Lichtensteiger, President of the IMCZ

IMCZBOARD MEMBERS

PRESIDENTBill Lichtensteiger

079 378 63 26President@IMCZ.club

NEWSLETTER EDITORAlan Cattell079 340 25 51

Newsletter@IMCZ.club

SECRETARYRoy HavermannSecretary@IMCZ.club

TREASURERJohn Arnold41 79 664 08 54

Treasurer@IMCZ.club

EVENTS’ ORGANISEREnrico Dell’Angelo

079 311 78 08Events@IMCZ.club

WEBMASTERRoger Brooks079 583 99 35

webmaster@imcz.club

MEMBERSHIP SECRETARYAnthony Haroutunian

076 328 09 32membership@imcz.club

PR COORDINATORWolfgang Czepiczka

078 631 21 33pr@imcz.club

Thumbnail biographies of board members can be found on our website www.imcz.club under

'About Us' section

IMCZNEWS June / July 2020 2

I N T E R N A T I O N A L M E N ’ S C L U B O F Z U G , P . O . B O X 7 2 1 2 , 6 3 0 2 Z U G

•IMCZNEWSHEALTH

A pandemic is the global outbreak of adisease. There are many examples in history,the most recent being the COVID-19pandemic, declared as such by the WorldHealth Organization on March 12, 2020.

Pandemics are generally classified asepidemics first, which is the rapid spread of adisease across a particular region or regions.The Zika virus outbreak that began in Brazil in2014 and made its way across the Caribbeanand Latin America was an epidemic, as wasthe Ebola outbreak in West Africa in 2014-2016.The U.S. has been experiencing an opioidepidemic since 2017 because of thewidespread misuse and high numbers of deathscaused by the drug, according to the U.S.Department of Health and Human Services.

COVID-19 began as an epidemic in China,before making its way around the world in amatter of months and becoming a pandemic.But epidemics don’t always becomepandemics, and it’s not always a fast or cleartransition. For example, HIV was consideredan epidemic in West Africa for decades beforebecoming a pandemic in the late 20th century.Now, thanks to advances in modern medicine,HIV is considered endemic, which means therate of the disease is stable and predictableamong certain populations, according tothe American Medical Association.

The Corona virus has now been with us formore than 11 weeks and has caused totalglobal chaos. Apart from the unfortunate toll ofup to 300’000 fatalities worldwide, it hasdisrupted whole economies with untolddamage. The total shutdown in virtually allcountries has had mixed consequences Onthe one hand it has caused immeasurablefinancial hardship with very large numbers oflaw-abiding citizens suddenly losing theirlivelihoods and becoming unable to feed theirfamilies. On the other hand, with mostmanufacturing plants shut down, and the vastreduction in air and road traffic, has resulted ina substantial improvement in air quality andthe environment generally.

What makes the Corona virus exceptionallydangerous is the fact that it has a relativelylong incubation period, up to 10 days, and ishighly contagious during a large part of thisincubation period. Furthermore, the infectedpersons show no symptoms during theincubation period.

Some easing of the draconic measuresordered by governments to contain the coronavirus, have been announced, but it will take along time for the economies to go back tonormal. Mind you, even then there is noguarantee that the nasty virus will havedisappeared for good. The danger will lurk andstay with us for as long as no medications totreat and immunise against it are available.

In the meantime, we mortals have to wait andhope that we manage somehow not to beinfected until such medications are developedand become available. Needless to say, mostlaboratories, research centres and pharmacompanies are working flat out to developvaccines and treatments to support infectedpersons.

In the past two decades, humanity has seen atleast 19 epidemics, almost one every year. Itwould be helpful to review some of them inorder to see the present one in perspective.

1. West African Ebola Epidemic 2014-2016With over 30’000 reported infection cases andalmost 12’000 deaths, this was one of theworst epidemics to hit West Africa recently.There is no cure for Ebola and no vaccine hasyet been developed. It is therefore,still a potentially very dangerousvirus that can emerge any time.

2. Swine Flu Pandemic H1N1 2009-2010In one year the virus infected asmany as 1.4 billion people acrossthe globe and killed up to 500’000people. It primarily affected childrenand young adults and 80% of thedeaths were in people youngerthan 65 years. Luckily a vaccine hasbeen developed and is nowincluded in the annual flu vaccine.

3. AIDS Pandemic 1981-PresentIt became a global pandemic in the 1980’s andcontinues to the present day as an epidemicin certain parts of the world. It is estimated thatit had claimed 35 million lives since it was firstidentified. The virus causing it is called HIV hadmade its way around the world and itestimated that up to 40 million people areinfected with it. Medication to treat it has beendeveloped and many people are now able tolead normal lives after having been infected.

4. Asian Flu 1957-1958This spread rapidly to cover most parts of theglobe. It had claimed up to one million liveswith 116000 deaths in United States alone.The pandemic was caused by a family of avianflu viruses.

5. The Spanish Flu 1918-1920It is estimated that up to 500 million people fellill with this flu, with at least 100 million deaths.In spite of its name, it did not start in Spain.It spread just after World War I, with highlethality due to cramped conditions of soldiersand poor wartime nutrition.

6. Polio Epidemic 1916It started in the United States with 27000infections and 6000 deaths. The disease

Epidemics andPandemics in History

Contributed by IMCZ honorary member Muthana Kubba

IMCZNEWS June / July 2020 3

•IMCZNEWSHEALTH affects mainly children but the Salk vaccine,developed in 1954, has put an effective end toit. President Franklin Roosevelt was diagnosedwith polio in 1921.

7. The Flu Pandemic 1889-1890It was first reported in St. Petersburg, Russiabut spread rapidly throughout Europe and therest of the world. It is estimated that up to 1million people were killed by it, and it took onlyfive weeks for it to reach peak mortality.

8. Russian Plague 1770-1772Moscow became plague ravaged in 1770, andthe terror of quarantined citizens erupted intoviolence with riots spreading throughout thecity and culminated in the murder ofArchbishop Ambrosious. The empress ofRussia, Catherine the Great, was so desperateto contain the plague and restore public orderthat she issued a hasty decree ordering that allfactories be moved away from Moscow. Asmany as 100’000 people had lost their livesthrough the plague.

9. The Great Plague of London 1665-1666This was the famous black death which causeda mass exodus from London in 1666. It startedin April 1665 and spread rapidly through the

hot summer months. By thetime it ended 100’000 people,including 15% of the populationof London, had lost their lives.Soon after it ended, the great fireof London started in September1666. It lasted for four very longdays, devastating large portionsof the city.

10. The Black Death 1346-1353It came all the way from Asia toEurope leaving devastation in itswake. It is said that up to 50%of the population of Europe waswiped out during this outbreak.The bodies of victims wereburned in mass graves. Thisplague changed the course ofEurope’s history. Labour became harder to find,bringing about better pay for workers whocould afford better nutrition and it endedEurope’s system of serfdom. The lack of cheaplabour contributed to technological innovation.

Pandemics have not disappeared yet, as thecase of Corona had shown, and they willprobably stay with us for quite a while yet.

However, we have developed lots of ways tohandle them and minimise the damage theycan cause.

Further readingTotal number of fatalities in SwitzerlandPandemics in history

Contributed by IMCZ Member Christian WagnerWAGNER & ASSOCIATES Investment Consulting

Economics And PoliticsThe figures for the first quarter confirm the worstfears for the world’s economy, even more so sinceonly the last month was really affected by theCoronavirus. Interestingly, the Euro area GDP lostthe least with -3.8%, while the USA (-4.8%) andChina (-6.8%) were hit harder. State help packagesin the trillions have been set up but they are probablynot enough even if the implementation goessmoothly. The second quarter is bound to be worse.

Bond MarketsThe central banks are pulling out all the stops to support the economyand markets. The Fed has established a whole series of mysteriousacronyms (e.g. CPFF, MMLF, PMCCF, SMCCF) which all help indifferent ways. However, it runs the danger of violating the FederalReserve Act since it is giving money without any security. The ECB forits part is already confronted with a judgement by Germany’s highestcourt which has ruled that it overstepped its authority with the PublicSector Purchase Programme (PSPP). The fact that the EU’s highestcourt had approved it in December 2015 doesn’t make things easier.

Equity MarketsThe markets pose a conundrum, solvable only by conjecture. On onehand, institutional investors are buying because they have littlealternative, government bond yields are paltry or even negative andalternative investments limited. This money is concentrated on

pharmaceuticals and technology shares whichare already over-represented in the commonindices. On the other hand, the fundamentaleconomic data is anything but positive and thevaluations (PER, PBV) already at record highsagain. Furthermore, it is assumed that bothconsumer and industry activity will be back at thesame levels as before the Corona crisis.

CurrenciesThe Trio USD, CHF and JPY remain the preferredcurrencies, and their relative strength versusother currencies is probably increasing. This isprimarily true for the exchange rates againstcurrencies of developing and threshold countries

of which Argentina, Ecuador and Lebanon have already declaredinsolvency. In view of the disagreements in the EU with regard todomestic and foreign policies, the EUR will stay under pressure.

Food For ThoughtThe whole world is waiting impatiently for a speedy end to the Coronacrisis, and the financial world has already determined that we are onthe verge of it with little damage. Economic models presuppose thatconsumer and corporate behaviour have not changed, and theconsequences of corporate and state over-indebtedness cannot betaken into account.

Christian Wagner, Schöngrund 11, CH-6343 Rotkreuz, Tel. +41 (0)41 790 35 81

•IMCZBUSINESS/FINANCE Investment Commentary July 2020

IMCZNEWS June / July 2020 4

•IMCZNEWSHEALTH

“Emerging technologies across the alternativeprotein landscape are poised to transformprotein production in the coming years byoffering higher efficiency, greater consistency,and less harm to public health, theenvironment, and animals than conventionalmeat production. Within this landscape, thecultivated meat industry — meat producedthrough animal cell culture, … — is a relativelyyoung but rapidly growing field. Cultivatedmeat builds upon deep insights into cellbiology and biological manufacturing procuredthrough the development of much moremature industries like biopharma and industrialbiotechnology, and these fields serve asinformative models for scale-up and growth.”

This introduction is taken from a non-profitstakeholder’s report about costs andproduction volumes for cultivated meat (TheGood Food Institute). As an interested reader inscientific and industry news, you have probablyalready read about “lab meat” in the papers.Whereas the public discussion mostly is aboutthe still seemingly science-fictional technology,taste and acceptance of cell-cultivated steaksand burgers, the scientific and industrydiscussions centre on partnerships to developtime-, cost- and resources-efficient processesto achieve commercial feasibility. The reportconcludes that price parity with conventionalmeat production is achievable with industrialscale production, though not without

substantial, multi-factorial optimisation.For instance, a lot of potential synergies withby-products or waste streams from agricultureneed to be considered.

Besides this relatively recent cell cultivationtechnology, the food industry has developedmeat substitutes from various sources forsome time. Well-established substitutes in thesupermarkets such as “classic” Tofu foodsfrom soya, and Quorn, made from fungi

mycoproteins, are believed to be notonly healthier but also moresustainable than meat. On a largescale, however, evidence on theiroverall sustainability as meat substituteis disputed. In particular, the carbonfootprint of fungal mycoproteinproduction is quite substantial due tothe necessary processing steps.Recent analyses are missed. Onestudy (Souza Filho, 2019) estimatesenvironmental impacts similar to thoseof chicken and pork farming, while astakeholder’s review in the Journal ofCleaner Production (2020) claims a 10to 4 times lower carbon impact and evenhigher land and water savings. Either way,neither soya nor mycoproteins can everachieve parity with the sustainability potentialof aquaculture and insects, nor of someprotein-rich crops.

Sustainability, however, is not just a questionof input-output comparisons to traditionalmeat sources. First and foremost comesconsumer acceptance. Only substitutes seenas palatable will be welcomed by consumers.For a protein source to become sustainable inpractice, market success is a prerequisite. Inthis respect, new developments targeted to hitthe sweet spot of meat and fish consumers bycreating products as authentic in organolepticfeatures as possible should have a major

advantage. Even the macronutrientcomposition can be adjusted, e.g plant-basedfish substitutes are enriched with algal omega-3 fatty acids. For my part, I doubt that acomplex food such as “fish-free tuna” withadded micronutrients really offers a high gradeof sustainability. Nevertheless, if such fancyfoods help to reduce fishing on a large scale,they may well be a significant step forward, allthings considered.

Protein Transition: ArtificialMeat And Other Substitutes

Contributed by Remo P. Jutzeler van Wijlen, Head R&D Sponser Sports Food,Ing. Appl Food Sciences, MAS Nutrition & Health ETHZ

IMCZNEWS June / July 2020 5

•SCIENCE/TECHNOLOGY

A complex and puzzling disease – which we need to learn to manageThe first pandemic in “modern” times (postgenome analysis) is certainly challenging us.It’s turned a lot of what we took for granted onits head. The reduction of contact with friendsand family and being unable to enjoy thesimple pleasures of communal eating, drinkingand socialising is a significant strain for all –and these are some of the least importantimpacts of the virus.

Now that the tide has turned in Switzerland (forthe moment at least), we look forward to evermore freedom to re-establish a more normallife. But the disease is not defeated and thenumber of cases will grow exponentially againif we can’t find a way to eliminate it, or at leastmanage it. If we go back to our collectivebehaviour of last year, then Covid-19 willexplode again just as it did this year. Nothingis more certain.

In addition to following the key principles ofdistancing where possible, wearing maskswhen you can’t keep your distance andobserving the hygiene rules, we have only fourmain ways to address the disease (pluslockdown of course – which we want to avoid):

a) Let it have its way and accept thecasualty level resulting (10’s of millions of deaths at least).

b) Develop treatments which mitigate theseverity of the disease and reducemortality.

c) Develop viable vaccines against thedisease and vaccinate a large percentageof the population (between 65% and 80%is estimated for herd immunity).

d) Find ways to manage the infection in the community through aggressive track-and-trace coupled with quarantineand contact isolation to keep the number of active cases low and preventthe explosive growth we saw in the early days.

The first option is, hopefully, not a seriousoption, at least where we have a choice.Option b) is important, but does little tomanage the number of cases and preventhealth systems being overwhelmed. Optionsc) and d) will minimise the number of cases butoption c) requires a breakthrough while optiond) is implementable now. This last option is themain focus of this article.

Covid-19 understanding isgrowing - but it’s early daysIn the April newsletter I summarised some ofwhat was known about the SARS-CoV-2Coronavirus at that time. Since then therehas been an unprecedented amount of work

to understand the virus and how it worksand identify treatments. The scientificunderstanding is developing at an astonishingpace. Keeping track is a challenge in itself.At the time of writing, I found 1,673 clinicaltrials[1] of treatments to mitigate Covid-19,documented by the US NIH. These are mainlyaimed at exploring the therapeutic value ofexisting drugs or therapies. On the WHO site,there is reference[2] to 10 candidate vaccines inclinical evaluation and an additional 114 inpreclinical evaluation (research phase). Theeffort is huge and involves the Pharmaceuticalindustry, Biotech start-ups, Universities andmany others.

Our understanding of the disease and how itspreads is also maturing – and it’s complicated.A large percentage of cases are asymptomaticor have mild symptoms. 5% or so of patientshave longer term effects, lasting several weeks,and we don’t yet know if there are long termconsequences. Some people (includingyounger people) have a massive immuneoverreaction some time after becomingsymptomatic, even if their initial symptomsare not severe. Fortunately this is rare, but it’soften fatal. The death rate amongst olderpatients is very high and accounts for the vastmajority of Covid-19 deaths. There is also someevidence of marked variations in death ratesbetween ethnic groups – up to 4 times higherrisk for some. This latter evidence, whilepreliminary, is interesting as it points to somegenetic based effects which we can hopefullyuse to understand the disease mechanismsbetter and develop more targeted therapy toprotect everyone.

Some treatments which have been trialled lookpromising. Good results have been achievedfrom transfusion of plasma from recoveredpatients into those who are critically ill. Theanti-viral drug Remdesivir is reported to havepositive therapeutic value. However, it’s earlydays and establishing a full array of effectivetreatment protocols will take time.

Improved therapeutic means are important,but they don’t prevent a health system beingoverwhelmed by the scale of the pandemic.Therapeutic improvements can help those inneed, and might reduce the time a patientspends in hospital, but they don’t help controlthe spread of the disease. They don’t help usmuch in keeping the overall number of activecases to a manageable level.

Vaccine DevelopmentThe ideal solution to the SARS-CoV-2 virus isthe development of effective vaccines whichstimulate long-term immunity. However, as Imentioned in my April article, rapid vaccinedevelopment is by no means certain. Thefastest vaccine development to date (formumps) took around 4 years. Most virusdevelopment attempts fail because the

necessary immune response is not stimulated,or because of side-effects (and there are manyother reasons). Remember, unlike drugs for life-threatening conditions, vaccines are given toHEALTHY people and negative reactions needto be below the 1:100,000 level to beacceptable (i.e. effectively unmeasurable).Drugs for severe conditions only need to showa net benefit – i.e. more people survive with thedrug than without it. (e.g. in a sample of 100patients, 20 survive with drug X and only 10survive with a placebo – but it might be adifferent 10!) For vaccines the safetyrequirement is MUCH higher and adversereactions are tracked continually after a vaccineis licensed. Also, possible allergic reactionsneed to be clarified so that those patients likelyto suffer from these don’t receive the vaccine.So making good vaccines is difficult.

There is still no vaccine against HIV after allthis time despite major investment. Knowncoronaviruses do not tend to trigger long-lasting immunity. About a quarter of commoncolds are caused by human coronaviruses, butthe immune response fades so rapidly thatpeople can become re-infected the next year.Worryingly, there is some evidence[3] (earlystage – to be confirmed) that the immuneresponse of people who have recovered fromCovid-19 follows this pattern and falls off quitequickly. If this is correct, then herd immunitycannot be established in a population throughnatural infection and regular (e.g. annual)vaccination would be required.

However, as mentioned, the size of the currenteffort, and the number of vaccine candidates,are unprecedented so there is good reason tohope. Scientists have worked on coronavirusvaccines before, so are not starting fromscratch. The two coronaviruses which havecaused lethal outbreaks previously, SARS-CoV-1 and MERS, were studied intensivelyand vaccine research went ahead for both. Butno vaccines were licensed, partly becauseSARS fizzled out and MERS is regional to theMiddle East.

Hope for the best, Plan for the worstThe only one of our four main options tomanage the infection which can beimplemented immediately is that of contacttracing, quarantining of infected people andisolation of their contacts. This is only realisticwhile the number of active cases of thedisease is low, otherwise the amount of workneeded is unfeasibly huge.

So what is involved? When a person hassymptoms, they need to be tested. Given apositive test result, it is necessary to track asmany as possible of the people they’ve beenin close contact with in the past few days. Riskof infection for a contact is assessed andthose at risk are isolated (at home). In this way

How to live with SARS-CoV-2Contributed by IMCZ member Alan Cattell

IMCZNEWS June / July 2020 6

•SCIENCE/TECHNOLOGYthe chain of further infection is broken. But it’snot easy. Do you remember all your contactsover the last 4 or 5 days? How can you warnthe strangers you sat next to on the train for30 minutes? Identifying contacts is a timeconsuming and labour intensive process andis far from complete. Also, before designing atracking approach, we need to understand theparameters of this particular disease so wecan answer the questions:

1. For how many days before a positive test result must contacts be traced?

2. How quickly does this tracing need to be done before it’s too late to make adifference? (i.e. “contacts” are alreadyinfectious and spreading the disease.)

3. What success rate do we need to achieve in identifying contacts to make it worthwhile?

These topics are being looked at in great detailby epidemiologists. A recent paper in Sciencehas given us some good initial answers tothese questions.[4] The authors looked at theparameters of the disease and used the bestactual real-world data available to modeltransmission by people who are symptomatic,asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic andalso environmental transmission (e.g. viacontaminated surfaces). Using theseparameters they built a model whichunfortunately shows that contact tracing needsto happen quite quickly. The graph aboveshows (for a given % success in isolating casesand quarantining contacts) the daily r factor fortransmission. (r is the exponential growth rate.A negative r means falling case numbers. r = 0.1means number of cases doubles in a week)The clear conclusion is that contact tracingand isolation need to happen within 2 days tohave a significant benefit. “Instant” contacttracing has a dramatic effect on the ability tomanage disease propagation. (For a moredetailed explanation have a look at Fig.3 ofreference 4.) So how can “instant” contacttracing be realised?

Track and Trace AppIn addition to the normal, manual, track andtrace activities already in place in Switzerland,we have the opportunity to use technology toimprove overall tracking efficiency. To increasetracking speed, and to address contacts withstrangers, some form of automation is desirableand Smart Phone App technology can deliver it

with existing technology. No app is“the solution” to the pandemic,but rather it can be an additionalrapid response tool whichcompliments existing measuresand therefore helps reduce theoverall rate of infection.

There are, however, major issuesaround public acceptance givenpeople’s entirely reasonable privacyconcerns. Early apps use geo-location information and allowedpeople to be tracked (location andtime), with unfortunate personalconsequences for some users. Agreat deal of embarrassment wascaused by the app used in SouthKorea for example.

To address these challenges, Google andApple have joined forces toprovide a defined API (ApplicationProgramming Interface) which willallow the development of apps whichmeet the needs of the various nationalhealth bodies but respect the privacyof users by preventing masssurveillance by malicious actors (stateor otherwise). The two main SwissTechnical Universities (Lausanne andZurich) have been working with themand have implemented the first appdesign based on this API which fullyrespects privacy.

Apple / Google API rulesThe rules governing the use of the API are asfollows: Any app :

• must be made by or for the use of anofficial government public healthauthority, and they can only be used forthe purpose of responding to Covid-19. It will be withdrawn when the need is nolonger there.

• needs to ask consent of the user toactually employ the API before it canactually be used.

• requires a user’s consent to share apositive test result with the back-endsystem (see later)

• should gather only the minimum infonecessary for the purposes of exposurenotification, and should use that only forthe sake of COVID-19 response. (Use foradvertising or other purposes is blocked.)

• can’t access, or even seek permission toaccess, a device’s Location Services,which provides specific geolocation data.

• should work country wide and be uniquein a country.

An additional benefit of using this API is that thedifferent national apps will be interoperable, soyour app will work in other countries.

This framework is a good start for ensuringprivacy, and therefore gaining acceptance, butthe app itself needs to go further.

The Swiss DP3T AppThe EPFL and ETHZ, togetherwith colleagues from KU Leuven,TU Delft, UCL, CISPA, Oxfordand Torino have developed aDecentralized Privacy-PreservingProximity Tracing applicationarchitecture. In this, all of the datagathering and the infection riskassessment is done in eachphone and is not shared with anycentral computer / back-end,thus ensuring privacy. It’s the firstapp to use the Apple / GoogleAPI and it aims to meet the goals:

• quick notification to people atrisk + guidance on next steps

• help epidemiologists to analyse spread(voluntarily opt-in function)

• completeness of contact events: contacthistory is comprehensive regardingcontact events, is precise (reflects actualphysical proximity) and is authentic(cannot be faked)

• ensures confidentiality: A malicious actor cannot access the contact historyof a user.

This development is published on GitHub[5] toallow detailed technical discussions with allinterested parties to optimise the solution. Thisalso allows public scrutiny of the approachand the source-code of the application.(GitHub is a software development platformknow to all software developers.)

So how does it work? Each smartphone withthe app installed generates an identifier codeand broadcasts this using Bluetooth LowEnergy beacons (very short range). The codeis generated in each phone and is ephemeral(changes regularly – many times per day – toprevent tracking of users). It is calculated usingan encryption algorithm in the phone from a“seed” unique to each phone. This “seed”changes daily, calculated from the previousday’s “seed” using a cryptographic hashfunction[6]. The seed for the following days canbe calculated from the initial seed. This seed

1. Install App

2. App runs in the background

IMCZNEWS June / July 2020 7

•SCIENCE/TECHNOLOGYis known only to the phone (until infection is reported – see later).Other phones in the close proximity of the broadcasting phone collectthe ephemeral IDs (EphIDs) and store them locally in their ownmemory. These IDs contain no personal information, only the codeand timestamp.

If an app user has a positive test result for Covid-19, they areauthorised by the health authority (they get a code) to upload their“seed” data and the time from which they were infectious. This datais distributed by a back-end system to every phone. Each phone canthen calculate the EphIDs of the infected persons from the “seed” /time information provided and looks for matches with the beaconEphIDs it collected. A risk calculation is performed locally in thephone based on proximity and duration of contact. The user isinformed if their risk of infection is above a threshold defined by thelocal health authority (based on an algorithm defined using the bestepidemiological data available – see later).

The back-end system which distributes the exposure informationdoes not have any personal information which would allow it tocontact individual people. It is UNTRUSTED as far as user privacy isconcern (which means that privacy does not depend on any actionsof the server). It only needs to be trusted not to add or removeinformation. It is not used by the people doing manual track-and-trace as it has no information they could use.

All the processing of risk is carried out locally in each phone and isnot shared with any back-end system. The back-end is not informedif a risk of infection is identified for a given person. It’s up to the phoneuser to respond to an alert and follow up, isolate and get tested. Ifthey have a positive test result then they can notify the back-end asdescribed above and alert all their contacts in turn. If they choosenot to respond to an alert nobody will know.

When an infected person uploads their “seed” information it isobviously no longer private. Therefore the “seed” in their phone ischanged randomly and it is no longer possible to derive previousseed values from their current seed.

Phones receiving information from infected phones have no way toidentify the person who potentially infected them or where this eventhappened.

Any infected patients will also have the option to upload their dataanonymously for epidemiology analysis. This analysis will in turnresult in improvements in the risk algorithm and improveunderstanding of how the disease spreads.

There are three main variants of the application outlined in the WhitePaper (ref 5). These are variants with different detailed trade-offs ofsecurity / cost / complexity but the same general approach is used.

Initial Impressions of the AppAt time of writing, the SwissCovid app is in an extended test phase.The Swiss Parliament is due to pass legislation to further ensure theprivacy of users of the app in June ’20. However, I was fortunate enoughto be able to download the app when it briefly appeared on Google Playfor the pilot. Installation is really simpleand is mainly concerned with givingpermission for the app to accessBluetooth, for it to be active when inthe background (essential for properfunction) – and that’s it. There is nofunction to login to the app or provideany personal data. It does not ask forlocation data as this is not allowed bythe Google / Apple API rules – and it’snot needed anyway. The screenshoton the right, captured from my androidphone, is the normal screen when theapp is running and no warnings havebeen received. The screenshot onpage 8 shows what happens whenyou turn off tracking which you can doby selecting the “Encounters” arrowon the first screenshot. I’m not surewhy anyone would want to do this, butif you’re even more paranoid aboutsecurity than I am (and that’s reallyparanoid) and you’re visiting yourlover or …. and you don’t trust theanonymity of the system, it’s possibleto turn it off. This is not a majorproblem as, if you become infected,

4. Other phones calculate their infection

3. On positive test SK uploaded to back-end

IMCZNEWS June / July 2020 8

•SCIENCE/TECHNOLOGY

you’re likely to be able to remember your lastrendezvous with your lover or….. You canpersonally give them the good news.

A lot of thought has gone into practical issuessuch as the impact on battery life and the datavolumes which need to be downloaded fromthe back-end system. Battery optimisation ishelped by close integration into the operatingsystem via the API. A few MB per day is all thatwould be needed for several thousand dailycases reported, and we are currently at lowdouble digit numbers.

If you are interested in more information, thewhite paper (ref [5]) has good descriptions ofthe way the App works, some of which isnot very technical.

Public Acceptance and useThis is the crucial issue and the reason for thecaution by the Swiss Parliament. It’s estimatedthat it’s necessary to get the app installed (andactive) on at least 50% of smart phones for theautomated tracking to make a majorcontribution to keeping infections low. Thehigher the number the better we will be able tomanage the disease. For this to happen, it’simportant that people have confidence in theprivacy / security issues around the app. That’swhy there is this unprecedented collaboration.To summarise the major privacy / securityrelated elements, they are:

• Google and Apple have together definedan API and clear rules around how an appwill be authorised to use the API to limitwhat data can be collected and optimisebattery life, memory usage etc.

• The DP3T application design is published,both the architecture and the sourcecode. This allows interested technicalpeople to look at the code and convincethemselves that it works as advertisedand be sure privacy is properly handled.

• A specific legal framework is promised toadd the weight of law to user’s rights withrespect to this app.

• EphIDs are generated locally in eachphone and EphIDs from other phones are stored locally in receiving phones. All analysis of infection risk is done ineach phone. No analysis is done on aback-end server.

• At all stages, the user is responsible formaking decisions on what to do with his / her data. If a person is infected, whenthey upload their data to warn others, theirown data on their phone is changed tobreak any link to their previous data. Aninfected person can choose not to uploadtheir data, and nobody will know.

• Sharing information with epidemiologistsis anonymous, entirely voluntary, and fullyindependent of uploading infectionrelated data.

• App data is not shared with the manualtrack and trace people. It does not haveany information they could use.

• The app cannot be used for monitoringquarantine or isolation. It is not linked toan individual and contains no locationinformation.

Hopefully, for all of the above reasons, the vastmajority of smart phone owners living ortravelling in Switzerland will install the app andkeep it turned on. None of us wants to go backto a lock-down situation and using this app isa very simple way of helping avoid that with nosignificant downside. Remember, until suchtime as we have a viable vaccine, the only realway to keep numbers low is track-and-trace.Given the characteristics of SARS-CoV-2, thistrack-and-trace needs to happen quickly andone practical way to achieve that is to use theSwissCovid app. Please install it and use itwhen it becomes available.

The iOS version will be available through theApp Store for all iPhones with OS 13.5 and up.The Android version will be distributed throughGoogle Play and should install on a widerange of Android versions, not only the mostup-to-date.

If anyone has any questions or concerns aboutthe app, please feel free to contact me byemail or at our regular Stammtisch meetings.

References1. See https://clinicaltrials.gov and filter

for Covid-19

2. WHO site – Draft landscape of Covid-19vaccines

3. Oxford University – Blood from recoveredCovid-19 patients showed decreasinglevels of IgG antibodies after infection.Rockefeller University NY did not findmany “killer” antibodies in the blood ofrecovered patients.

4. Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 transmissionsuggests epidemic control with digitalcontact tracing

5. GitHub DP3T documentation(https://github.com/DP-3T/) The whitepaper can be found here.

6. https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptographic_hash_function

STAMMTISCH AT HOMEWhenever until wheneverSafely in your own home

Cheers.

Not the article I ever thought I would write for a June issue, but ... it has beensuggested that homemade masks can be worn for some limited degree ofcoronavirus protection, in the absence of a proper medical grade facemask.As a substitute for the KN95 respirator, which might not be available untilChina can ramp up production and ship them here, the efficacy of a DIY clothmask sounds suspect to me, but who knows? So, what about ski facecoverings?

As a skier, who grew up on the frigid slopes ofNew England, I consider myself one of the

world’s foremost experts on face/neckcoverings. Unlike sunny Switzerland, skiing inVermont and New Hampshire involvestemperatures likely to cause frostbite to anyexposed skin. A bluebird day happensmaybe three times per season, if that. Asingle mask alone is not effective and amultiple component “system” is a must.

My rig centered on several neck gaiters and theSnoZone Hat Trick. This peculiar contraption consisted of aneoprene “hat,” which doubled as a small bag cinched at the topwith a cord, connected to a mask sewn around to completelyenclose the ears and face exactly like a niqaab. Man, was it uglyand ski friends enjoyed reminding me of that until we would comein for lunch. When I took it off, filled the bag with my gloves,goggles, liners, neck gaiter, etc., cinched up the cord and slung itover my shoulder, a meek “Um, where’d you get that . . . hat?”was always the only comment. The advent of near-universalhelmet wear for skiing ended the age of the SnoZone, but headinjury safety aside, I have yet to find a more effective weatherprotection system.

So, you may think I’m being facetious to entertain using theseitems to counter Covid-19, but ski accessory companies areactually presenting the use of their products in a coronavirussetting. SOGGLE was promoting their visor covers as repurposedfacemasks. Subsequently, they removed from their website themention of using the cloth covers against the virus, probably forlegal reasons. Instead, SOGGLE has now introduced a limitedspecial edition “Community” series mask “to support theawareness of “SocialDistancing” and a health-related andattentive behavior” along with the cautionary note: “The SOGGLECommunity Mask is not a medical product and does not protectagainst infection. . . . [I]t reduces the risk of infecting othersbecause it can reduce the risk of droplet infection throughspeaking, coughing or sneezing.” However, as of this writing, thenews section of their website still has photos of customerswearing the regular visor covers as masks with statements aboutthe covers “working as masks; useable as mouthguards; and asprotection for the mouth and nose.” Similarly, turtlefur, citing anApril 3rd CDC recommendation on cloth face coverings,enthusiastically encourages using their products for “essentialerrands” and touts their coverage and other benefits. Conversely,BUFF, which makes fabric face coverings for sports, specificallystates their products do not prevent diseases or the spread ofviruses and refrains from even suggesting their use in any wayagainst Covid-19. Yet, I also received an email fromSkiEssentials.com about the campaign, GogglesForDocs,urging people to donate their snow goggles and coordinatingdelivery to medical professionals experiencing shortages of PPE(personal protective equipment). There is no coherent, definitivemessage about the value of these improvised “masks.”

Nonetheless, what are the various types of face coveringsavailable for eventual skiing and these other more uncertain uses?

SPORTS•IMCZNEWS From theSLOPES...

IMCZNEWS June / July 2020 9

Contributed by IMCZ Sports’ editor Joseph Dow

Dual Use?Don’t put awaythat ski mask,just yet!

SnoZones

Joe’s Mask Collection

SPORTS•IMCZNEWS

IMCZNEWS June / July 2020 10

As a side note: No mask or face covering system seems feasible with a helmet because of theirfogging problems when worn with goggles and visors. Luckily, the requirement for a mask whileskiing in Switzerland is extremely rare. As -18° C seems to be the facemask threshold, I mayhave needed a mask about three or four times in twelve ski seasons. I imagine goggles and amask in an indoor hospital setting would be similarly problematic.

I do have concerns about the proper wearing, handling (on and off), disinfecting and transporting ofa mask, be it a BUFF Bandana or a KN95. In my opinion, their effectiveness against coronavirus ishighly dubious and should only be an option of last resort. However, I do remember a televisionprogram where a doctor comes upon an active tuberculosis patient unexpectedly and franticallyslaps his own hand over his mouth for protection. Then we have the ludicrous “Tip Your Mask”initiative to show storeowners you are not a criminal threat seeming to confirm the necessity of amask as absurd and pointless. At the very least, the ski face coverings have better styling and exhibityour personal flair. Hopefully, come winter, we will be using these things for their intended purposes!

Additional InformationSOGGLE: https://soggle.com/en/product-category/soggle-community-mask-en/ &https://soggle.com/en/news/

turtlefur: https://www.turtlefur.com/pages/coronavirus-covid-19-update

BUFF: https://www.buff.com/ch_de/informationen-covid-19/

GogglesForDocs: https://gogglesfordocs.com

Tip Your Mask: https://www.distractify.com/p/tip-your-mask

Icebreaker: https://www.icebreaker.com/en-ch/womens-hats-neckwear/oasis-balaclava/102739.html?dwvar_102739_color=001

Seirus Masque: www.skiessentials.com/seirus-neofleece-comfort-masque.html#color=12921

NEXT SKI SEASON: 2021-2022?!! Are we Steinbock or are we sheep?

Types of masks / face coverings

Neoprene facemaskThese have limitedbreathability, so manyperforations are required,which seems to make them useless for any corona protection.

Neck Gaiter / Scarfwool or Polarfleece (wind blows right throughfleece – never wear just afleece jacket skiing in thespring, only for insulation;so not likely much of abarrier) Similar to abandana, but not ascomfortable worn over the face.

Heat Exchange MaskThese masks, representedby the PolarWrapExchanger, with interiorcoils of copper make itvery hard to breathe andare not useful for anyphysical activity, but theyare great for extreme cold when snowmobiling. Possibly somewhateffective as a limitedbarrier.

Bandana(my personal favorite)made of high-tech fiberstreated with antibacterialsilver with Polarfleecelining. These are verycomfortable and the three small holes could be sewn closed easily.Hello, cowboy!

BalaclavaThese can be made of silk (thin – workswell with a helmet), merino wool or high-tech fibers. Off the slopes, you will definitely look like a bank robber or hijacker.

Worn in combinationFor skiing, I wear various items incombination, depending on thetemperature and weather. I often use a balaclava, two neck gaiters (one thinhigh-tech and one wool or fleece), and a bandana. More layers might stop droplets/particles better but the heat and breathability may be an issue.

Goggles – Some people are evensuggesting adding goggles and I have a friend from New Jersey, who is wearingSpeedo swim goggles because heworries ski goggles have too muchventilation. It would seem things aregetting a bit ridiculous, but theGogglesForDoctors campaign is a real thing, encouraged by a long list of hospitals.

Buff Tubemade mostly of high-techfibers. These can be worn in multiple ways, are thin, and are easy to bring along.Wearing one around yourneck could be useful if youencounter an unexpectedsituation requiring the wearing of some kind of mask.

Buff Original - Cows & Edelweiss

Fleece and wool

IMCZNEWS June / July 2020 11

Self-isolation Diary – first 2 weeks

Day 1 – I can do this!! Got enough food and wine to last a month!Day 2 – Opening my 8th bottle of wine. I fear wine supplies

might not last Day 3 – Strawberries: Some have 210 seeds, some have

235 seeds. Who knew?? Day 4 – 8:00pm. Removed my day pyjamas and put on my

night pyjamas. Day 5 – Today, I tried to make hand sanitizer. It came out as

jello shots!! Day 6 – I get to take the garbage out. I’m so excited,

I can’t decide what to wear! Day 7 – Laughing way too much at my own jokes!! Day 8 – Went to a new restaurant called “The Kitchen”. You have

to gather all the ingredients and make your own meal. I have no clue how this place is still in business!

Day 9 – I put liquor bottles in every room. Tonight, I’m getting all dressed up and going bar hopping.

Day 10 – Struck up a conversation with a spider today. Seems nice. He’s a web designer.

Day 11 – Isolation is hard. I swear my fridge just said, “What the hell do you want now?”

Day 12 – I realized why dogs get so excited about something moving outside, going for walks or car rides. I think I just barked at a squirrel.

Day 13 – If you keep a glass of wine in each hand, you can’t accidentally touch your face.

Day 14 – Watched the birds fight over a worm. The Cardinals led the Blue Jays 3–1.

Day 15 – Anybody else feel like they’ve cooked dinner about 395 times this month?

Medical opinions on a proposed Congressional Health Care PackageThe Allergists were in favor of scratching it, but the Dermatologists advised not to make any rash moves.The Gastroenterologists had sort of a gut feeling about it, but the Neurologists thought the Administration had a lot of nerve. Meanwhile, Obstetricians felt certain everyone was laboring under a misconception, while the Ophthalmologists considered the idea short-sighted.Pathologists yelled, "Over my dead body!" while the Pediatricians said, "Oh, grow up!” The Psychiatrists thought the whole idea was madness, while the Radiologists could see right through it.Surgeons decided to wash their hands of the whole thing and the Internists claimed it would indeed be a bitter pill to swallow.The Plastic Surgeons opined that this proposal would "put a whole new face on the matter.” The Podiatrists thought it was a step forward, but the Urologists were pissed off at the whole idea.Anaesthesiologists thought the whole idea was a gas, and those lofty Cardiologists didn’t have the heart to say no.In the end, the Proctologists won out, leaving the entire decision up to the assholes in Washington.

HUMOUR•IMCZNEWSSkin GraftA married couple were in a terrible accident inwhich the woman's face was severely burned.The doctor told the husband that they couldn'tgraft any skin from her body because she wastoo thin. So the husband offered to donate someof his own skin. However, the only skin on his body that the doctor felt wassuitable would have to come from his buttocks. The husband and wifeagreed that they would tell no one about where the skin came from, andrequested that the doctor also honour their secret. After the surgery wascompleted, everyone was astounded at the woman's new beauty. Shelooked more beautiful than she ever had before! All her friends andrelatives just went on and on about her youthful beauty! One day, she wasalone with her husband, and she was overcome with emotion at hissacrifice. She said, ''Dear, I just want to thank you for everything you didfor me. There is no way I could ever repay you.'' "My darling,'' he replied,''Think nothing of it. I get all the thanks I need every time I see your motherkiss you on the cheek.''

Improving EnglishUpdated by Roger Brooks from an original article by W.K. Lessing in1946, published in “Astounding Science Fiction

In view of the increasing use of English globally as “lingua franca” amongspeakers of other languages, and in view of the difficulty presented bythe numerous irregularities in English spelling, a multi-year program toreform and simplify English spelling is under consideration. This wouldmerely accelerate the normal process by which the language iscontinually modernized.In the first year, “s” would replace the soft “c”. Sertainly, such animprovement would be selebrated in all sivic-minded sircles, and studentsin all sities would be reseptive toward any change eliminating the nesessityof learning the differense between the two letters. Similarly, the soft “g”could be replased by “j” and the voiced “s” could be replased by “z”. The letter combination “ch”, which is also a source of great confusion,would be replaced by the phonetic spelling, “tsh”.In the second year, sinse only the hard “c” would be left, it could bereplaced by the letter “k”, both letterz being pronounsed identikally.Imagine how greatly only two yearz of this prosess would klarify thekonfusion in the mindz of students. Already we would have eliminated an entire letter from the alphabet.

There will be growing publik enthuziazm in the third year, when thetroublesome “ph” would be replaced by “f”. This would make words like“fotograf” 20% shorter in print. Konversely, the letter “x” kould bereplaced by its phonetik equivalent, “ks”.

By the fourth year, publik akseptanse of a fonetik alfabet kan beekspekted to have inkreased to the point where a more radikal stepforward kan be taken without fear of undue kritisizm. We would thereforeurje the elimination at that time of al unesesary double leterz, whitsh havealways ben a nuisanse and a deterent to akurate speling.

With so mutsh progres already made, it might be posible in the fifth yearto delve further into the posibilitiez of fonetik speling. After duekonsideration of the reseption aforded the previous steps, it should bepossible by this time to start speling al difthongz fonetikaly. Moststudents do not realize that the long “i” and “y,” as in “time” and “by,” are aktualy the difthong “ai,” as it is writen in “aisle,” and that the long“a” in “fate” is in reality the difthong “ei” as in “rein”. Similarly, otherdifthongs, such as “ou” and “ea”, which are pronounsed as singlevowels, could be simplifaid bai elimineiting the unesesary vowel.

Although perhaps not imediately aparent, the seiving in taime and effortwil be tremendus when we leiter elimineite the sailent “e,” as meid posiblbai the previous tsheinj. As the horibl mes of the silent “e”s in English iskauzd prinsipaly bai the present ned to indikeit whether the presedingvowel is long or short, we kould simply elimineit al sailent “e’s”.

Sinse the sounds of “th” and “w” kauz mutsh distres and konfusion amongspekers of English as a sekond languaj, pepl wil be reseptiv by the seventh year to steps such as replasing “th” with “z” and “w” with “v”.Kontinuing zis proses, yer after yer, ve vould eventuali hav a reli sensiblriten languaj. After tventi yers, ve ventyur tu sei, zer vud bi no mor uv zes teribli trublsum difikultis, and evrivun vud faind it ezi tu understandetsh ozer.

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IMCZNEWS June / July 2020 12