international conference on food security in drylands doha november 15 2012 water-related risks and...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: International Conference on Food Security in Drylands Doha November 15 2012 Water-Related Risks and Opportunities for Foreign Direct Investments in Africa](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062409/56649ed35503460f94be368c/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
International Conference on Food Security in Drylands Doha November 15 2012
Water-Related Risks and Opportunitiesfor Foreign Direct Investments in Africa
Holger HoffStockholm Environment Institute
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
![Page 2: International Conference on Food Security in Drylands Doha November 15 2012 Water-Related Risks and Opportunities for Foreign Direct Investments in Africa](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062409/56649ed35503460f94be368c/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
A new global freshwater assessment
Blue water availability per capita Gerten et al 2011
![Page 3: International Conference on Food Security in Drylands Doha November 15 2012 Water-Related Risks and Opportunities for Foreign Direct Investments in Africa](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062409/56649ed35503460f94be368c/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Blue plus green water availability per capita
A new global freshwater assessment
Gerten et al 2011
![Page 4: International Conference on Food Security in Drylands Doha November 15 2012 Water-Related Risks and Opportunities for Foreign Direct Investments in Africa](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062409/56649ed35503460f94be368c/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
A new global freshwater assessment
Change in blue plus green water availability per capita – climate changeA2, 2080, ensemble mean
![Page 5: International Conference on Food Security in Drylands Doha November 15 2012 Water-Related Risks and Opportunities for Foreign Direct Investments in Africa](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062409/56649ed35503460f94be368c/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
A new global freshwater assessment
Crop water productivities (m3 water required for producing 1000 kcalunder current crop mix and management
! productivity gradient along the Nile basin !
![Page 6: International Conference on Food Security in Drylands Doha November 15 2012 Water-Related Risks and Opportunities for Foreign Direct Investments in Africa](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062409/56649ed35503460f94be368c/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
A new global freshwater assessment
Water-limited food self sufficiency potentialGerten et al 2011
![Page 7: International Conference on Food Security in Drylands Doha November 15 2012 Water-Related Risks and Opportunities for Foreign Direct Investments in Africa](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062409/56649ed35503460f94be368c/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
largely semi-arid savanna systems
Water situation in Sub-Saharan Africa
UNEP 2004
only about 10% of rainfall becomes blue water (runoff and groundwater)
very little of that blue water is tapped for agriculture or other purposes
![Page 8: International Conference on Food Security in Drylands Doha November 15 2012 Water-Related Risks and Opportunities for Foreign Direct Investments in Africa](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062409/56649ed35503460f94be368c/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
high variability and uncertainty about rainfall and seasonal water availability
Brown et al 2006
-> need for additional water storage and irrigation
Water situation in Sub-Saharan Africa
variability and uncertainty are projected to increase with climate change (Hansen et al 2012)
CoV monthly rainfall
![Page 9: International Conference on Food Security in Drylands Doha November 15 2012 Water-Related Risks and Opportunities for Foreign Direct Investments in Africa](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062409/56649ed35503460f94be368c/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Lack of blue water storage (and other water infrastructure)
Water situation in Sub-Saharan Africa
Grey et al 2007
-> need for additional water storage and irrigation
![Page 10: International Conference on Food Security in Drylands Doha November 15 2012 Water-Related Risks and Opportunities for Foreign Direct Investments in Africa](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062409/56649ed35503460f94be368c/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
< 5% of agriculture is irrigated (compared to about 40% in South Asia)
FAO 2004
Water situation in Sub-Saharan Africa
-> need for additional water storage and irrigation
![Page 11: International Conference on Food Security in Drylands Doha November 15 2012 Water-Related Risks and Opportunities for Foreign Direct Investments in Africa](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062409/56649ed35503460f94be368c/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Water situation in the Nile basin
Green water availability per capita per subbasin - 2000
based onCPWF data
![Page 12: International Conference on Food Security in Drylands Doha November 15 2012 Water-Related Risks and Opportunities for Foreign Direct Investments in Africa](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062409/56649ed35503460f94be368c/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Water situation in the Nile basin
Green water availability per capita per subbasin - 2050
based onCPWF data
![Page 13: International Conference on Food Security in Drylands Doha November 15 2012 Water-Related Risks and Opportunities for Foreign Direct Investments in Africa](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062409/56649ed35503460f94be368c/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Crop (water) productivity in the Blue Nile basin
again: large productivity gradient -> win-win basin-wide solutions
![Page 14: International Conference on Food Security in Drylands Doha November 15 2012 Water-Related Risks and Opportunities for Foreign Direct Investments in Africa](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062409/56649ed35503460f94be368c/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Effects of climate change: upper Blue Nile discharge
Lopez2012
![Page 15: International Conference on Food Security in Drylands Doha November 15 2012 Water-Related Risks and Opportunities for Foreign Direct Investments in Africa](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062409/56649ed35503460f94be368c/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
FDI risks – Ethiopia / Blue Nile
Bossio et al 2012
![Page 16: International Conference on Food Security in Drylands Doha November 15 2012 Water-Related Risks and Opportunities for Foreign Direct Investments in Africa](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062409/56649ed35503460f94be368c/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
water effects often downstream (different from land impacts)
most significant effects in the dry season when river flow is lowest, but irrigation demand peaks
Our estimate of contracted areas: 1.76 million ha if fully irrigated, annual runoff in the Blue Nile may drop by 5-20 %
Land Matrix estimate: 3-6 million ha
FDI risks – Ethiopia / Blue Nile
Bossio et al 2012
![Page 17: International Conference on Food Security in Drylands Doha November 15 2012 Water-Related Risks and Opportunities for Foreign Direct Investments in Africa](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062409/56649ed35503460f94be368c/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
investment / knowledge / technologies / are urgently needed,adapted to local conditions, providing local benefits
FDI opportunities: sustainable intensification of irrigated AND rainfed agriculture
“Large-scale farming is in most cases unlikely to be the most appropriateavenue for the commercialization of African agriculture”
from: Awakening Africa‘s Sleeping GiantWorld Bank 2009
![Page 18: International Conference on Food Security in Drylands Doha November 15 2012 Water-Related Risks and Opportunities for Foreign Direct Investments in Africa](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062409/56649ed35503460f94be368c/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
investment / knowledge / technologies / are urgently needed,adapted to local conditions, providing local benefits
as well as other inputs and interventions, e.g. integrated fertilizer & pest management, „green agriculture“ solutions
not only large-scale blue water infrastructure, but also scalable interventions across the green-to-blue spectrum,
e.g. rainwater harvesting and storage, spreading weirs, etc
FDI opportunities: sustainable intensification of irrigated AND rainfed agriculture
Thank you !