interim results fy19 - talktalk group795876be-6286... · fy18 final dividend payment of 1.5p debt...
TRANSCRIPT
21 November 2018
Interim Results
FY19
Agenda
1
H1 FY19 Overview
Financial Review
Our Plan
Outlook
Tristia Harrison
Kate Ferry
Tristia Harrison
Tristia Harrison
Q&A All
H1 FY19 Overview
Performance on track with strong momentum on KPIs; no change to FY expectations
3
(42)
22 20 26 37
109 80
24
2.2m
Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19
BB Net Adds On-net Churn
1.6%1.4%
1.2% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.3% 1.1%
Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19
Fibre Net Adds
74 73 72 89 89 98
67
125
Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19
42 43 44 47 48 51 53 55
Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19
EFM & Ethernet Base
367 375 375 396 382 389
Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19
Revenue ex-Carrier & Off-net+4.1% +3.7%
Total FLPP Base
On-net ARPU
25.1 26.0 25.2 25.1 24.7 25.2
Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19
Growing Consumer ARPU
Focus on growth, leading to improving profitability
4
FY18 FY19 Impact FY20
1. Customer Base• Meaningful shift to
higher speed products
• Base growth• Growing in Consumer• Increasing revenue
2. ARPU• Growing Consumer ARPU• Stable Group ARPU and
reducing headwind
3. Cost Base• Central costs• FTTC discounts
• Continued improvements in cost efficiency
4. Regulation• WLA pricing
• Tailwind• Reducing cost base
Plan is working; outlook encouraging
FinancialReview
Growth in revenue and EBITDA in line with expectations
6
H1 FY19£’m
H1 FY18£’m
Headline revenue 808 801
Headline revenue (excluding Carrier and Off-net) 771 742
Gross profit 425 408
Margin 52.6% 50.9%
Operating costs & SAC (324) (333)
Headline EBITDA 101 75
Margin 12.5% 9.4%
Headline profit after taxation 5 (21)
Headline EPS (Basic) 0.4p (2.2p)
Dividend per share 1.00p 2.50p
N.B. The above numbers apply IFRS 15 and 9 to both the current year and the prior year under the full retrospective approach
IFRS 15 – Impact on TalkTalk
Full retrospective approach
Two material impacts:
− Connection Fee Revenue (now deferred over contract length)
− Welcome Credits (brought forwards)
£36m negative impact in FY18 due to strong customer growth (following period of decline in FY17)
c.£5m negative impact in H1 FY19
Phasing
− Timing of recognition has changed
− Total contract value remains the same
− No impact on cash
7
IFRS 15 – Impact on TalkTalk
8
P&L Impact(£)
FY18
P&L Upside
P&L Downside
FY19 FY20 FY21
Phasing impact: timing of recognition has changed, but the total contract value remains the same and there is no impact on cash
Illustrative P&L Impact Illustrative Connection Fee Example
£28 £28 £28 £28 £28 £28 £28
£60
£
24 Months
Connection Fee
Monthly Fee
IAS 18
Total contract value: £732
£28 £28 £28 £28 £28 £28 £28
£
24 MonthsConnection Fee
Monthly Fee
Total contract value: £732
£2.50 per month
IFRS 15
Growth in revenue and EBITDA in line with expectations
9
H1 FY19£’m
H1 FY18£’m
Headline revenue 808 801
Headline revenue (excluding Carrier and Off-net) 771 742
Gross profit 425 408
Margin 52.6% 50.9%
Operating costs & SAC (324) (333)
Headline EBITDA 101 75
Margin 12.5% 9.4%
Headline profit after taxation 5 (21)
Headline EPS (Basic) 0.4p (2.2p)
Dividend per share 1.00p 2.50p
N.B. The above numbers apply IFRS 15 and 9 to both the current year and the prior year under the full retrospective approach
Revenue growth from bigger base and Fibre penetration
Gross profit improvement driven by lower Fibre wholesale pricing and growth in high margin data products
Operating costs reduced due to central cost savings and cost to serve efficiencies
Underlying CPA stable
First half cash flow in line with our expectations
10
H1 FY19£’m
H1 FY18£’m
Opening Headline Net Debt 724 782
Headline EBITDA 101 75
Working Capital (14) 34
Capital Expenditure (59) (63)
Operating Free Cash Flow 28 46
Interest & Taxation (21) (28)
Free Cash Flow 7 18
Non-Headline items (20) (21)
Investments (6) (5)
Dividends (17) (47)
Share Issue - -
Net Cash Flow (36) (55)
Closing Headline Net Debt 760 837
Working capital in line with guidance, with YoY movement driven by timing of supplier payments
Investments represent our continued contribution to YouView JV
FY18 final dividend payment of 1.5p
Debt covenant: 3.2x *
Cash generative in H2
* As calculated for the purposes of the Group borrowing facilities
Capex reducing and in line for FY guidance
11
Network− Maintaining spend on network
Other− Anything non-core increasingly being done in capital-
light way, e.g. Mobile
Looking forward− As per previous guidance cash capex expected to be
c.£110m for the year, excluding FibreNationNetwork:
£54mNetwork:
£54m
Other: £9m Other: £5m
H1'18 H1'19
£63m£59m
Non-Headline items lower year-on-year
12
H1 FY19
P&L
Cash£6m
£20m
P&L – EBITDA − Network transformation (£7m) and MVNO operating
profit (£1m)
Cash− Relates to above P&L costs, as well as timing of Group
restructure payments
− Deemed consent receipt not included
Looking forward− Cash items will continue to exceed P&L items due to
timing of final mobile exit payments in H2
− Both P&L and cash items will be lower YoY
H1 FY18
P&L
Cash
£66m
£21m
Summary
IFRS 15
− Simply phasing
− c.£5m negative impact in H1 FY19
P&L
− In line with expectations
− Revenue growth, costs reducing, EBITDA growth
Cash Flow
− Cash generative in H2
− Confident in medium term net debt reduction
Delivering on our plan and confident in full year expectations
13
Our Plan
Our plan to be the #1 value provider of fixed connectivity
15
LEADING TO: BASE GROWTH, GROWING ARPU AND SUSTAINED EBITDA GROWTH
Consumer
16
Pre-2016 2016-2018 2019 onwards
Approach
• Quad-Play• Bait and switch pricing• In-contract price rises• Lack of differentiation
• Prioritisation of fixed connectivity• Launch of FLPP – now over 2.2m
customers on these plans• Completely unique
• Continued focus on fixed• Future proofing; meaningful shift
from MPF to Fibre• Fairly priced add-ons, e.g. TV,
Mobile and Call Boosts• Continuing FLPP
Impact
• Short-term ARPU increases• Increasing churn• Decreasing CSAT• Front and back book disparity
• ARPU dilution, now growing• Reducing churn• Increasing CSAT• Reducing front v back book gap• Consistent base growth
• ARPU growth• Ongoing low churn• Reducing costs to serve• Continued base growth
Unique propositions driving base growth and growing ARPU
1
Pricing data supplied by
Consumer
17
Competitor front and back book price delta can be up to £15 – as new customers are offered cheaper deals
We have closed the average gap between front and back book to £1-2
This has brought down churn over the last few years, whilst others have seen an increase
We are well positioned in this area; increased regulatory and political focus on ‘loyalty penalty’, with CMA considering a super complaint.
Average price delta between front and back book
1
Fairer Broadband for Everyone
FY17 FY18 FY19
Other UK ISPs
TalkTalk
Churn Impact£15
£0
Monthly Cost
Consumer
18
Consumer ARPU growing, driven by increased Fibre penetration, re-contracting at a higher price and fairly priced add-ons
1
Further FLPP dilution (remaining out of contract base to recontract and new acquisitions contracting at competitive prices)
Fibre penetration
Fairly priced add-ons, e.g. TV, Mobile and Call Boosts
Re-contracting at higher price point
Consumer
19
New Wi-Fi Hub and customer connectivity dashboard driving material CSAT and churn benefits
1
Business
UK’s largest Wholesale Broadband provider
2
c.17%
Wholesale
&
Partner
Direct Real strength in indirect channel – UK’s largest supplier of Wholesale and B2B2C Broadband with over 50% market share
Wholesale and Partner is simple, low cost to serve business. Partners add bespoke, tailored services and absorb cost and complexity
ARPU typically lower in Wholesale Broadband, but low cost to serve means EBITDA contribution is broadly similar to Consumer customers
Ethernet is the real growth engine; high ARPU, high margin, long-term business
20
21
Pre-2016 2016-2018 2019 onwards
Approach
• Revenue predominantly driven by Voice
• Significant lower margin Carrier revenue
• Growing high margin Data revenue• 2nd in Wholesale Broadband Market
• Greater proportion of high margin Data revenue
• Reduced lower margin Carrier revenue
• 1st in Wholesale Broadband Market• Fastest growing Ethernet provider• Best Gb over Gb Ethernet pricing
• Continued growth in high margin Data revenue
• Further reduced lower margin Carrier revenue
• Continued leadership in Wholesale Broadband
• Fundamental shift from MPF to Fibre
Impact• Improving margins• Improving CSAT• Growing base
• Strong margin growth• Reducing churn• Improving CSAT• Very strong base growth
• Strong ARPU and margin growth• Reducing costs to serve• Continued base growth
Reliable and consistent business with sustained growth in high margin data products
2
Shift from Voice to Data
Focus on DataMix shift to higher
speed data
Business
22
30% increase in data usage year-on-year
Customers are upgrading to our higher speed products in both Consumer and Business
OTT video continues to be the largest driver, accounting for 58% of all traffic, due to the popularity of Netflix, YouTube, Amazon and BBC iPlayer
We have enhanced our customers video experience by caching an average of 87% of video content within the network
Unlimited data products for businesses and consumers continue to drive network usage to new record peaks within our Network
Network and connectivity3
Pe
ak T
raff
ic T
b/s
Proportion of Video Traffic
Peak Traffic
Data Usage
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20
Network and connectivity
23
3
We continue to enhance our network to support both businesses and consumers
Network Strategy Elements Customer Outcomes
Increase the amount of content and video we “Store and
serve” direct from the network
Continue to expand direct connectivity with the major content providers, e.g. Amazon, Apple, Microsoft
Movement of network to high capacity backhaul and core data transmission
Further adoption of Software Defined Network (SDN) and automation capabilities
A great experience for customers with no buffering or delays
for Netflix and other prime content
A great experience for real-time streaming of sporting events
and gaming content
Reduces our network complexity and reduces our network
operating costs
Increasingly our self-driving network will self-heal and optimize
with less interruptions to customers experience
24
We are driving down the cost per Gb through four key initiatives;
− Adoption of additional high capacity optical products across our network
− Holding more content directly on our network which improves the customer experience and lowers the amount of traffic that has to leave our network
− Deploying our next generation access switching capability that utilises more cost effective backhaul options
− Exploitation of service dashboard to identify and resolve service issues in near real time to avoid customer disruption and engineer dispatch
We are meeting data usage demands, whilst reducing our cost per Gb by evolving our network
Network and connectivity3
Cost reduction
Network – regulatory tailwinds and BTOR pricing
Self-service
External spend
Central costs
25
4
One Salford Campus
26
5
Simplification has led to a leaner, more efficient business
Seen real operational and cultural benefits since we moved to Salford
Want to build on Salford success by creating one main campus for the whole business
Will transition gradually over the course of 2019 and complete by January 2020
TalkTalk’s HQ moving to Salford; creating one main campus and a more efficient operating model
Fibre for Everyone
27
Future proofing our network, both through our partnership with Openreach and with our own infrastructure investment
6
Partnership with Openreach
Service Today
• Holding Openreach to account to improve service
• Particular focus on repair and provisioning
• Underpins higher CSAT, lower churn and lower cost to serve
FTTC Discounts
• Driving scale adoption of part Fibre products
• WLA and commercial deal has reduced wholesale FTTC prices
• Underpins lower churn, lower cost to serve, growing ARPU and EBITDA growth
• Fast adopter of G.Fast – offering higher speeds and improving ARPU
FTTP Future
• Committed to ensuring maximum number of customers have access to full Fibre
• Investing in scale full Fibre network. TalkTalk as anchor tenant
• Will wholesale from Openreach – and potentially others – in remainder of country
Fibre for Everyone
28
Scale FTTP alternative investment, introducing FibreNation
6
Reiterating commitment to investing in scaled Full Fibre network
Launched new company FibreNation
Accelerating roll out plans; 3 new towns and cities – Harrogate, Knaresborough and Ripon
Total footprint of over 100,000 homes
TalkTalk and Sky to be wholesale partners of the new network
In discussions with infrastructure investors on the right long-term capital structure
Outlook
FY19 outlook and guidance
In excess of 150k broadband net adds for the full year
Headline EBITDA in line with expectations, with year on year growth driven by:
− the benefits of a larger base and stabilising Group ARPU
− commercial and regulatory tailwinds for Fibre pricing
− cost reductions as we continue to simplify the business and focus on fewer priorities.
Accelerating full fibre plans
30
Q&A
Appendix
IFRS 15 explained
33
What are the key impacts for TalkTalk?
Connection Revenue
Hardware Revenue
Welcome Credits
Commission Costs
IAS 18Connection fee revenue was recognised upfront, at the point when the customer was connectedIFRS 15Connection fee revenue is now deferred and recognised on a straight-line basis over the contract term ImpactRevenue and profits are recognised later
IAS 18Wholesale broadband welcome credits (discount on connection fee for certain customers) were deferred over average customer tenureIFRS 15Wholesale broadband welcome credits are still deferred, but now over thecontract termImpactCosts are recognised earlier, since contract length is shorter than tenure
IAS 18Hardware revenue was recognised upfront based on the amount the customer paid for the hardware when it was delivered to the customerIFRS 15Hardware delivery is a separate performance obligation. Revenue is based on the standalone selling price of the hardware and is recognised upfrontImpactMore revenue is recognised upfront when the hardware is provided
IAS 18Sales commissions and third-party acquisition costs resulting directly from securing contracts with customers were expensed when incurredIFRS 15These costs are now able to be deferred and recognised over the average customer tenureImpactMinimal impact to TalkTalk since existing distribution agreement already enabled the deferral of certain customer acquisition costs
34
IFRS 15 and 9 restated comparatives (unaudited)
IFRS 15
Headline Financials (£’m) Q1’18 Q2’18 Q3’18 Q4’18 H1’18 H2’18 FY’18 Q1’19 Q2’19 H1’19
Total revenue 399 402 401 405 801 806 1,607 400 408 808
On-net revenue 298 310 303 307 608 610 1,218 309 320 629
Off-net revenue 9 5 6 2 14 8 22 3 4 7
Corporate revenue 92 87 92 96 179 188 367 88 84 172
Data revenue 42 36 42 42 78 84 162 43 43 86
Voice revenue 27 29 30 47 56 77 133 30 26 56
Carrier revenue 23 22 20 7 45 27 72 15 15 30
Total revenue excluding Carrier and Off-net 367 375 375 396 742 778 1,513 382 389 771
EBITDA 75 122 197 101