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TRANSCRIPT
Operational Overview
Interesting Day Overview: February 2013
2
Interesting Day Overview
High PCLP
Dec 31st Jan 7thw/c Jan 14th Jan 21st Jan 28th Feb 4th
SMPB (£)
Bacton ASEP Scaleback
Bacton ASEP Scaleback
Exit Constraint
Exit Constraint
3
14th January: High PCLP
15th Jan 16th Jan
300
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
420
430
06:0
0
07:0
0
08:0
0
09:0
0
10:0
0
11:0
0
12:0
0
13:0
0
14:0
0
15:0
0
16:0
0
17:0
0
18:0
0
19:0
0
20:0
0
21:0
0
22:0
0
23:0
0
00:0
0
01:0
0
02:0
0
03:0
0
04:0
0
05:0
0
Lin
ep
ack (
mcm
)
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
No
min
atio
n Im
bala
nce &
NG
Tra
des (m
cm
)
Sells Buys Actual National Linepack National Target LinePack
Opening LinePack PCLP Total Shipper Imbalance
4
Supply & Demand Hourly Variation from 1/24 Rate
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
06
:00
07
:00
08
:00
09
:00
10
:00
11
:00
12
:00
13
:00
14
:00
15
:00
16
:00
17
:00
18
:00
19
:00
20
:00
21
:00
22
:00
23
:00
00
:00
01
:00
02
:00
03
:00
04
:00
05
:00
HV
OL
(m
cm
)
315
320
325
330
335
340
345
350
355
Lin
ep
ack (
mcm
)
Interconnector Exports ldzofftake ntsindustrialntspowerstation Storage injection Interconnector ImportsStorage Withdrawal Terminal supplies Actual Linepack
5
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
07:0
0
10:0
0
13:0
0
16:0
0
19:0
0
22:0
0
01:0
0
04:0
0
07:0
0
10:0
0
13:0
0
16:0
0
19:0
0
22:0
0
01:0
0
04:0
0
07:0
0
10:0
0
13:0
0
16:0
0
19:0
0
22:0
0
01:0
0
04:0
0
07:0
0
10:0
0
13:0
0
16:0
0
19:0
0
22:0
0
01:0
0
04:0
0
07:0
0
10:0
0
13:0
0
16:0
0
19:0
0
22:0
0
01:0
0
04:0
0
07:0
0
10:0
0
13:0
0
16:0
0
19:0
0
22:0
0
01:0
0
04:0
0
07:0
0
10:0
0
13:0
0
16:0
0
19:0
0
22:0
0
01:0
0
04:0
0
Variation fro
m 1
/24th
rate
(m
cm
)
310
315
320
325
330
335
340
345
350
355
360
365
370
14/01/2013 15/01/2013 16/01/2013 17/01/2013 18/01/2013 19/01/2013 20/01/2013
Lin
epack (m
cm
)
Terminal Supplies Storage Withdrawal Interconnector Imports Interconnector Export LDZ Offtake
Powerstation Storage Injection Industrial Actual National Linepack
Supply & Demand Profile impact on Actual Linepack
Week commencing 14th January: Linepack Swing
6
2001/2 vs 2011/12: Linepack Variation
Comparison of within day max-min range of NTS linepack (mcm)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
In d
ay r
an
ge o
f lin
ep
ack (
mcm
)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Range of linepack swing 2001/2 Rolling 30 day average swing 2001/2
Range of linepack swing 2011/12 Rolling 30 day average swing 2011/12
7
14th 15th 16th January
300
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
420
430
06:0
0
09:0
0
12:0
0
15:0
0
18:0
0
21:0
0
00:0
0
03:0
0
06:0
0
09:0
0
12:0
0
15:0
0
18:0
0
21:0
0
00:0
0
03:0
0
06:0
0
09:0
0
12:0
0
15:0
0
18:0
0
21:0
0
00:0
0
03:0
0
Lin
epack (m
cm
)
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Nom
inatio
n Im
bala
nce &
NG
Tra
des (m
cm
)
Sells Buys Actual National Linepack National Target LinePack
Opening LinePack PCLP Total Shipper Imbalance
14th Jan 15th Jan 16th Jan
8
16th January: DN & Power Station Diurnal Take
HVOL Profiles - Supply and Demand
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
06
:00
07
:00
08
:00
09
:00
10
:00
11
:00
12
:00
13
:00
14
:00
15
:00
16
:00
17
:00
18
:00
19
:00
20
:00
21
:00
22
:00
23
:00
00
:00
01
:00
02
:00
03
:00
04
:00
05
:00
HV
OL
mc
m
Interconnector Export Industrial LDZ Offtake Power Station
Storage Injection Sub Terminal Interconnector Import Storage Withdrawal
9
16
thJan
ua
ry: L
DZ
& C
CG
T D
em
an
d P
rev
iou
s 7
da
ys
32
0
33
0
34
0
35
0
36
0
37
0
38
0
06:00
07:00
08:00
09:00
10:00
11:00
12:00
13:00
14:00
15:00
16:00
17:00
18:00
19:00
20:00
21:00
22:00
23:00
00:00
01:00
02:00
03:00
04:00
05:00
Linepack (mcm)
0 50
10
0
15
0
20
0
25
0
30
0
35
0
40
0
LDZ & CCGT Offtake Rate (mcm)
Actu
al L
PLD
Z 1
60113
LD
Z 7
-day A
vera
ge
CC
GT
160113
CC
GT
7-d
ay A
vera
ge
10
16
thJan
ua
ry: 1
00p
/therm
Pric
es
an
d N
G A
ctio
ns
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
10
0
10
5
06:00
07:00
08:00
09:00
10:00
11:00
12:00
13:00
14:00
15:00
16:00
17:00
18:00
19:00
20:00
21:00
22:00
23:00
00:00
01:00
02:00
03:00
04:00
05:00
Prices (p/therm)
0 1 2 3
Actions (mcm)
Actio
n T
ake
nS
AP
SM
P B
uy
SM
P S
ell
11
16
thJan
ua
ry: M
ark
et R
esp
on
se
0
20
40
60
80
10
0
12
0
14
0
06:00
07:00
08:00
09:00
10:00
11:00
12:00
13:00
14:00
15:00
16:00
17:00
18:00
19:00
20:00
21:00
22:00
23:00
00:00
01:00
02:00
03:00
04:00
05:00
Flow Rate (mcm/d)
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
10
0
10
5
Prices (p/therm)
Inte
rco
nn
ecto
rS
tora
ge
LN
GS
MP
Bu
y
12
16th January: End of day position
300
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
420
430
06
:00
07
:00
08
:00
09
:00
10
:00
11
:00
12
:00
13
:00
14
:00
15
:00
16
:00
17
:00
18
:00
19
:00
20
:00
21
:00
22
:00
23
:00
00
:00
01
:00
02
:00
03
:00
04
:00
05
:00
Lin
ep
ac
k (
mc
m)
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
NG
Tra
de
s (m
cm
)
Sells Buys Actual National Linepack National Target LinePack Opening LinePack PCLP
Bacton ASEP Scalebacks
18th & 21st January 2013
14
16th 17th January
300
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
420
430
06
:00
08
:00
10
:00
12
:00
14
:00
16
:00
18
:00
20
:00
22
:00
00
:00
02
:00
04
:00
06
:00
08
:00
10
:00
12
:00
14
:00
16
:00
18
:00
20
:00
22
:00
00
:00
02
:00
04
:00
Lin
ep
ac
k (
mc
m)
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
NG
Tra
de
s (m
cm
)
Sells Buys Actual National Linepack National Target LinePack Opening LinePack PCLP
16th Jan 17th Jan
15
18th January: Start of Day Context
300
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
420
430
440
450
06:0
0
07:0
0
08:0
0
Lin
epack (m
cm
)
Actual LP
PCLP
National Target LinePack
Opening LinePack
DFN
Demand
16
18th January: NG Actions
� Bacton ASEP Interruptible capacity scaled back.
� Release of additional firm entry capacity at Bacton withheld.
17
18
thJan
ua
ry: O
uttu
rn
300
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
420
430
440
450
06:00
07:00
08:00
09:00
10:00
11:00
12:00
13:00
14:00
15:00
16:00
17:00
18:00
19:00
20:00
21:00
22:00
23:00
00:00
01:00
02:00
03:00
04:00
05:00
06:00
Linepack (mcm)
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
Actions (mcm)
NG
Sell
NG
Bu
yA
ctu
al L
PP
CLP
N
atio
nal T
arg
et L
ineP
ack
Ope
nin
g L
ine
Pack
DF
ND
em
and
18
18
th19
th2
0th
Jan
uary
30
0
31
0
32
0
33
0
34
0
35
0
36
0
37
0
38
0
39
0
40
0
41
0
42
0
43
0
06:00
08:00
10:00
12:00
14:00
16:00
18:00
20:00
22:00
00:00
02:00
04:00
06:00
08:00
10:00
12:00
14:00
16:00
18:00
20:00
22:00
00:00
02:00
04:00
06:00
08:00
10:00
12:00
14:00
16:00
18:00
20:00
22:00
00:00
02:00
04:00
Linepack (mcm)
-4-3-2-101234
NG Trades (mcm)
Sells
Buys
Actu
al N
ational Lin
epack
National T
arg
et Lin
eP
ack
Openin
g L
ineP
ack
PC
LP
18
thJan
19
thJan
20
thJan
19
21st January: Events
� Norwegian Supply loss at Langeled (approx 25mcm EoD)
� The forecast increase in flows at IoG to cover this supply loss combined with an already heavy system and high Bacton flows cause a concern over a potential constraint at Bacton.
� Firm capacity release restricted at Bacton ASEP & Interruptible capacity scaled back
� 11:00 Interruptible capacity restored & firm capacity released
20
21
stJan
ua
ry: O
uttu
rn
30
0
31
0
32
0
33
0
34
0
35
0
36
0
37
0
38
0
39
0
40
0
41
0
42
0
43
0
06:00
07:00
08:00
09:00
10:00
11:00
12:00
13:00
14:00
15:00
16:00
17:00
18:00
19:00
20:00
21:00
22:00
23:00
00:00
01:00
02:00
03:00
04:00
05:00
Linepack (mcm)
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
NG Trades (mcm)
NG
Sell
NG
Buy
Natio
na
l Ta
rge
t Lin
eP
ack
Ope
nin
g L
ineP
ack
PC
LP
Actu
al L
ine
pa
ck
DF
ND
em
and
Exit Constraint
23rd & 25th January 2013
22
21
st 22
nd
23
rdJan
uary
30
0
31
0
32
0
33
0
34
0
35
0
36
0
37
0
38
0
39
0
40
0
41
0
42
0
43
0
06:00
08:00
10:00
12:00
14:00
16:00
18:00
20:00
22:00
00:00
02:00
04:00
06:00
08:00
10:00
12:00
14:00
16:00
18:00
20:00
22:00
00:00
02:00
04:00
06:00
08:00
10:00
12:00
14:00
16:00
18:00
20:00
22:00
00:00
02:00
04:00
Linepack (mcm)
-4-3-2-101234
NG Trades (mcm)
Sells
Buys
Actu
al N
ational Lin
epack
National T
arg
et Lin
eP
ack
Openin
g L
ineP
ack
PC
LP
21
stJan
22
nd
Jan
23
rdJan
23
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
19/01/2013 20/01/2013 21/01/2013 22/01/2013 23/01/2013
Po
we
r S
tati
on
Dem
an
d (
mcm
)
16
17
18
LD
Z D
em
an
d (m
cm
)
Langage PS Marchwood PS Seabank PS SW LDZ Actual (D+1)
23rd January: SW LDZ and Power Station demand
� Higher demand in SW for for LDZ and Power Stations on the 23rd January…
19/01/2013 20/01/2013 21/01/2013 22/01/2013 23/01/2013
SW LDZ Actual (D+1) 16.96 17.21 17.19 17.38 17.53
Langage PS 1.68 1.38 1.86 2.07 2.48
Seabank PS 0 0.7 2.03 0.05 3.47
Marchwood PS 0.01 0.04 1.85 3.07 3.25
24
23rd January: NG Actions
� Reconfigure the NTS
� Flow swap agreed
� Short Term NTS Flexibility Restriction issued in SW and SE
� Off-Peak Exit Capacity scalebacks initiated
� Locational offers and Exit Capacity surrender offers requested
25
25th January: NG Actions
� Short Term NTS Flexibility Restriction issued in SW and SE
� No further actions required.
26
Lessons Learnt
� First time we have undertaken Exit Actions
� No Capacity Surrender offers received
�Some process learning with our control room
� Any feedback?
�Email: [email protected]
�Phone: 01926 653977