Integrated Assessment of Social Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change Among Farmers in Mexico and

Argentina

Project Coordinator: Dr. Carlos Gay, Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera,

UNAM, México DF

Project Duration: 3 years

RESEARCH TEAMMEXICO

Carlos GAY– Atmospheric Physics - UNAMPatricia ROMERO – Sociology/Public Policy – UAMCecilia CONDE – Climatology – UNAMJorge ADAME – Hydrology – U.of TamaulipasHallie EAKIN – Geography – U. of Arizona

ARGENTINARoberto SEILER – Biometeorology – UNRCEnrique GROTE – Social Psychology – UNRCMarta VINOCUR – Agrometeorology – UNRCAna María GEYMONAT – Agricultural Economics – UNRCMónica WEHBE – Rural Development – UNRC

BRAZIL*: Maria del Carmen Lemos - Political Sciences-U.of Arizona CHILE*: Alejandro León – U. of Chile. Agricultural Economics

COLOMBIA* NOT SEEKING FUND

RESEARCH QUESTIONSHow are broad-scale socioeconomic processes of change in Mexico and Argentina, translated into region and sector-specific policy and institutional reforms, affecting the vulnerabilities of different types of farm systems and their capacities to adapt? What are the implications of particular agricultural and water policy reforms for the production strategies of different types of farmers, and what is the significance of these strategies in terms of enhancing or diminishing the vulnerabilities of farmers to climatic risk and their capacities to adapt to such risk? How can existing water and agricultural institutions and decision-makers make better use of climate research? How can adaptation capacities be enhanced within the context of current policy trends?

RESEARCH SITESSmall-scale export: Veracruz and CórdobaLarge-scale diversified export: Tamaulipas and Córdoba

Córdoba, Córdoba, ArgentinaArgentina

Climate data required for our

project Surface Basic VariablesTemperature (maximun and minimun)PrecipitationSolar radiation, cloud coverVariables used in previous Mexican downscaling statistical methodSea surface temperatureSea level pressureTemperature and vorticity (700, 500 mb)Possible variables that depend of the stakeholder interest (related to hazards)Winds, evaporation, days with frosts, heavy rains, hail, etc.

These variables are needed at:

The following time scales

Historical: at least 30 years for baselines (1961-1990, if possible)Recent years: 2000-2002ENSO yearsClimate trends and climate change scenarios: 2020s, 2050,..

The following time resolutions Monthly (used also for generating seasonal, annual,..) Daily for extreme event analysis and for crop simulation

models

The following spatial resolutions Regional Local, county level

Methods/tools used for developing

climate scenarios

Base scenarios: 30 years trends and averages (1961-1990) if possibleClimate change scenarios

IncrementalHistoric analogues (trends, El Niño years, decades similar to selected GCMs outputs)GCM outputs, interpolation, downscalingTools: Climlab, Magicc/ScenGen

Non-Climate data required for our

project Indicators to be examinedSocio-economic and environmental indicators will be developed as the final step of the proposed methodology. If the attributes proposed in the original project are accepted, some indicators could be (examples):

Related to System flexibility: range of income sources, diversity of crop base,..Related to Livelihood stability: range of variability in production (yields), income, participation in labor marketsRelated to Equity: access to services, technical support, irrigation

Hypothetical “Amoeba” Diagram of Community Adaptive Capacity

100

75

50

25

0

Optimum

Income Agricultural Diversity

Yield Variability

Physical Resource Index

Market Involvement

Hazard frequency

Production Costs

Accessibility of Services

Community 1

Community 2

These indicators are needed at: The following time scales

Historical: perhaps 1970 as baseline for the two countries; perhaps 1995 as example of changes in livelihood strategies (e.g. Post NAFTA, in the case of Mexico), for the two countries.Recent years: 2000-2002. Current livelihood practices and resourcesStrong ENSO years: droughts, floodsPerhaps only 2020 for some indicators (population, economic growth). What if? Exercise

The following time resolutions Seasonal Annual Decadal (particularly last decade of the 20th century)

The following spatial resolutions National Regional County level, farm level

Methods/tools used for developing non-climate scenarios and for the socioeconomic analysis

Identification with stakeholders participation of a set of political-economic and economic factors that actually affect them, such as markets, policies, risk management strategies. Analysis of aggregated agricultural and socio-economic data at regional and county level and other environmental statistics In depth interviews and household surveys will be used to generate specific indicators Statistical and qualitative data analysis, e.g. estimation of the relative importance of climate in decision-making.Recent years‘ trends (globalization, neo-liberalism in the Americas) and socio-economic projections will be used as future possible scenarios-Tools: SPSS; detailed ethnographies, focus groups qualitative interviews

Additional knowledge and skills expected to

gain from these workshops Extreme events analysis. Downscaling techniques Magicc / Scengen and regional models basic featuresIn depth analysis of climate scenarios development and application: state of the art.

Plans to communicate and transfer the knowledge/skills to the rest of the project team

We will develop our first bi-national workshop on May, 2002. Colombian researchers are invited to this workshop, mainly to discuss the adoption of the same methodologies and to develop their AIACC research agenda.Students will use during this year the proposed methods /tools in their thesis.

Advantages of using these methods/tools Methods/tools. Climate:

Generally accepted (consensus of climate change community), Well documentedSome of them applied/used previously by our research team.

Methods/tools. Non- climateWell documented;Some of them applied/used previously by our research team. Some of them applied/used previously by our research team.

Disadvantages of and obstacles to using these methods/tools

Methods/tools.Increasing uncertainties, when changing time scales, spatial scales. Downscaling techniques not agreed / applied at local / farm level by our research team for both countries beforeConsistency / integration between climate and socio-economic scenarios for both countries is still an open questionHow our climate and non – climate products will be discussed and feedback with stakeholders and into our research is also an open question. Particularly, we will define during the project how to assess the interest and understanding of the stakeholders of possible climate change conditions.