institute for environmental studies perspectives on climate change: what the media need to know...
TRANSCRIPT
Institute for Environmental Studies
Perspectives on climate change: what the media need to know
Joyeeta Gupta
2 UNESCO – IHEInstitute for Water Education
Coping with complexity: Sustainable development
Economicdevelopment
Measures to deal with
climate change
Sustainable Development
Measures todeal with
climate change
Reduces economic
development
Reducessustainable development
Media: Understand the perspective from which people are speaking
3 UNESCO – IHEInstitute for Water Education
Coping with complexity: Uncertainty
• There is uncertainty in the knowledge on climate change; this uncertainty does not imply that the knowledge is inaccurate or incorrect.
Media: Often strives for provocative debate by inviting those for and those against climate change to discuss climate change
4 UNESCO – IHEInstitute for Water Education
Temperature change (ºC) Global mean w.r.t. pre-industrial level
1 2 3present
Ecosystems Risks to ecosystems like Wadden Sea
Risks to manyspecies and ecosystems
Health HighHeat wave mortalityLyme; allergies increases
CZM SLR 35-45 cm/century; severe damage to coastal ecosystems
SLR 40-55 cm/century; allowingregular coastal flooding
SLR 20 cm/century; doubling of costs for coastline maintenance
Tourism TCI +6; good months: 4Skating event ¼ present
TCI +8; good months: 4.5Skating event 1/5 present
TCI +3; Good months: 3 Skating event ½ present
Agriculture
Extreme eventsIntensity and frequency of some
extreme events will further increase
Abrupt eventsProbability low risk-high impact events
( WAIS, THC, GIS) increases
Int. solidarityHigh risks to low-lying
States and coastal areasHigh risks of regional
water and food shortage
Fresh waterHigh risk navigation; high risk of flooding; High risk
salt-water intrusion and drought
increase in intense winter precipitation; high risk to cooling water; medium risks to navigation
Adaptation difficult
Adaptation difficult
Adaptation difficult
Adaptation difficult
Adaptation difficult
Adaptation difficult
pre-ind. level
Invasion of speciesRisks to some ecosystems
Damage from extreme weather events HigherLow
Adaptation difficult
Temperature change (ºC) Global mean w.r.t. pre-industrial level
1 2 3present
Ecosystems Risks to ecosystems like Wadden Sea
Risks to manyspecies and ecosystems
Health HighHeat wave mortalityLyme; allergies increases
CZM SLR 35-45 cm/century; severe damage to coastal ecosystems
SLR 40-55 cm/century; allowingregular coastal flooding
SLR 20 cm/century; doubling of costs for coastline maintenance
Tourism TCI +6; good months: 4Skating event ¼ present
TCI +8; good months: 4.5Skating event 1/5 present
TCI +3; Good months: 3 Skating event ½ present
Agriculture
Extreme eventsIntensity and frequency of some
extreme events will further increase
Abrupt eventsProbability low risk-high impact events
( WAIS, THC, GIS) increases
Int. solidarityHigh risks to low-lying
States and coastal areasHigh risks of regional
water and food shortage
Fresh waterHigh risk navigation; high risk of flooding; High risk
salt-water intrusion and drought
increase in intense winter precipitation; high risk to cooling water; medium risks to navigation
Adaptation difficult
Adaptation difficult
Adaptation difficult
Adaptation difficult
Adaptation difficult
Adaptation difficult
pre-ind. level
Invasion of speciesRisks to some ecosystems
Damage from extreme weather events HigherLow Damage from extreme weather events HigherLow
Adaptation difficult
Long-term objectiveCoping with complexity: Winners and Losers
5 UNESCO – IHEInstitute for Water Education
Coping with complexity: Seriousness
• In some countries, the media is treating climate change as if it is an apocalyspe. The Institute for Public Policy Research – calls it ‘climate porn’.
• Media: Focusing on the actions people can take makes it more positive than making the problem seem unmanageable.
6 UNESCO – IHEInstitute for Water Education
Coping with complexity: Shifting political paradigms
Development
N
S
Pollu
tion
Inverted U curve may be a zig-zag curve
Leadershipparadigm
NS
N reduces emissions and helps S
Conditional leadership
US EU
SN reduces emissions
partly via helping S - CDMLeadership sans US
EU
S
CEITSUS
JSCaNZ
N helps S via
CDM
US
Leadership competition
N mainstreams cc help in
development cooperation
7 UNESCO – IHEInstitute for Water Education
Coping with complexity: Emissions Trading
• Assess total permissible emissions
SouthN
Per capita
North
S
Grandfathering
North
S
–No long term target, so not assessed.
• Divide between countries
–Either per capita
•Not politically possible
–Or grandfathering
•Not politically possible, except through a smart negotiating strategy
• Countries can trade
• Efficient solution
8 UNESCO – IHEInstitute for Water Education
Possible attention to: Cities and climate change
9 UNESCO – IHEInstitute for Water Education
Speakers
• Grace Akumu: Dealing with Scientific Content and the Climate Science Debate– Grace – Exec Director of Climate Network Africa
• Eric Hall: The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol: Key Programming and Reporting Elements– Eric – former journalist with Reuter presently
with UNFCCC as the Communications and Media Manager
10UNESCO – IHEInstitute for Water Education
Themes for discussion
• How does on report on uncertainty to the public?
• How does one simplify complexity?• How does one ensure balance? Does one
ensure balance?• What should be the tone of the information
provided? • How can the information be contextualized?• How can the information be made relevant? • Does the media have an educative role?