institute for environmental studies...
TRANSCRIPT
Scenarios in environmental and energy assessment
Frans Berkhout
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM)
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Aims of the lecture
• To describe the uses of scenarios
• To give some historical background
• To define three scenario approaches
• To describe two scenario exercises and the lessons learned
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What is a scenario?
‘…archetypal descriptions of alternative images of the future, created from mental maps or models that reflect different perspectives on...future developments’
Rotmans and van Asselt, 1998
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What is a futures scenario?
Attracting
and
repelling
forces
Past Present Future
Future
state
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Driving
forces
Sideswipes
Future
state
1
Future
state
3
Current
state
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Millenium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios
Today’s weather forecast
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Source: KNMI, 1 Nov 2009
Oil price forecast
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Source: Sals.aNewsletter,Feb 2009
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Aim of scenarios
‘...to illuminate choices of the present in the light of possible futures...’ (Godet, 1996)
i.e. not predictions
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Why scenarios?
• To conduct analysis in the future
• To conduct integrated analysis
• To illuminate long-term problems
• To develop common understandings of problems
• To explore robust solutions
• To facilitate and plan for change
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A short history of scenarios
Several intellectual roots:– Strategic planning (1950s, Thinking the Unthinkable,
Kahn) and operations research (1950s-60s)
– ‘Limits to Growth’ modelling (early 1970s, Forrester and Meadows) using computable systems analysis
– Corporate strategic planning (early 1970s, Shell) emphasizing narrative logics
– La Prospective (1980s) suggesting the integration of models and narratives
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Output from World2 (Meadows et al, 1999)
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Scenarios today
• Business strategy scenarios: understanding risk
• New conversation scenarios: opening up options
• Groups-in-conflict scenarios: understanding differences
• Public interest scenarios: developing common agendas and action
• Scientific scenarios: assessing long-range biophysical systems perturbed by human action
(Raskin, 2002)
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Global assessments
Global Scenarios Group (1995, SEI, environment, poverty)
Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (2000, IPCC, climate change)
Global Environment Outlook (2002, UNEP, environment)
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005, MEA, ecosystem services)
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Futures scenarios: assumptions
• The future is unlike the past, and is shaped by human choice and action
• The future cannot be foreseen, but exploring the future can inform present decisions
• There are multiple possible futures, scenarios map a ‘possibility space’
• Scenario development involves rational analysis and subjective judgement
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When are scenarios appropriate?
• Discontinuous change is expected within normal planning horizons
• There is a perceived lack of ‘adaptive capacity’
• There is a risk of maladaptation to future conditions
• There are opportunities for positive gains from pursuing ‘robust strategies’
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Components of scenarios
Models
Indicators/parameters
Storylines
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Models, scenarios, stories
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Models to narratives
• Models are appropriate for simulating well-understood systems over short time-periods
• With higher complexity and longer time horizonsthe power of prediction diminishes
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Special challenges in building scenarios
• Indeterminacy in social and economic theory
• Emergence of novelty and innovation
• Reflexivity and volition
• Contested futures
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Scenario approaches
• Extrapolatory: quantitative, deterministic
• Normative: qualitative, visionary
• Exploratory: quantitative and qualitative, synthetic
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Uses of approaches
Extrapolatory
• Routine in planning and strategy
• Relationships and dynamics well-understood
• Assumption of continuity
• Well-defined expertise and methods
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Uses of approaches
Normative (ie ‘backcasting’)
• Becoming more common in corporate and policy communications
• Ad hoc approaches, no well-defined methods
• Assumption of control
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Use of approaches
Exploratory
• Not routine
• Relationships and dynamics not well-understood
• Expectation of discontinuity
• Poorly-defined and heterogenous methods
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Case 1: SRES Scenarios
• Need for emissions parameters for climate models
• Covers all radiatively important gases
• 4 ‘macro-regions’
• 6 modelling teams: AIM, ASF, IMAGE, MARIA, MESSAGE, MiniCAM
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Process
• Review
• Identify drivers
• Formulate narrative storylines
• Quantify storylines using models
• ‘Open’ review process
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Ground-rules
• No ‘business as usual’ scenario
• No probabilities ascribed
• No climate policy assumed
• No adaptation assumed
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Principal dynamics
• Population growth
• GDP growth
• Energy and technological change
• Land-use change
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The scenario dimensions
ECONOMIC
GLOBAL
ENVIRONMENTAL
REGIONAL
A1 A2
B1 B2
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Scenario storylines
A1: rapid economic growth, low population growth, rapid adoption of new technologies, convergence of regions, capacity building, increased social interaction, reduced region differences in per capita income
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Scenario storylines
A2: heterogenous world, self-reliance and local identities preserved, high population growth, regionally-specific economic growth, fragmented economic and technological development
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Scenario storylines
B1: convergent world with low population growth, transition to service and info economy, resource productivity improvements, clean technology towards global solutions
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Scenario storylines
B2: Divergent world with emphasis on local solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability, moderate population growth, intermediate levels of economic growth, less rapid technological change
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SRES Scenario families
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SRES Emissions scenarios
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Global emissions scenarios
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Climate futures
Low, middle
and high:
temperatures
(compared to
1980-99)
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Climate scenarios (2007) + burning embers (2001)
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The pyramid of uncertainty
Source: Schneider, 2003
Scenarios with probabilities
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Source: DenElzen et al. 2007
Types of uncertainty, probability and scenarios
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Some problems and weaknesses
• Conceptual framework not well specified
• Feedbacks between environmental and social and economic development not considered
• Too much emphasis on conventional drivers (I=PAT formula)
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Case 2: The UK Foresight ‘Environmental Futures’ framework
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Drivers and some outcomes
Berkhout and Hertin, 2002
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Method
• Facilitation of ‘stakeholder’ workshops
• Possibility space elaborated through associations created by the grid
• Principal of ‘symmetry’ in elaboration
• Synthesis and iteration
• Analysis of alternative strategies
• (Evaluation)
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Uses
• Scenario planning for policy and agencies– qualitative
– open, participative, multidisciplinary
– based on experience of practitioners
– one-off events (often workshops)
– Scenarios as communication tool
• Scenarios in scientific assessment– qualitative and quantitative
– expert-driven, some inclusive procedures
– use data and expert knowledge
– carried out over longer time periods
– scenario as assessment tool
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Examples
• Scenario planning in policy and agencies– Foresight Crime Prevention Panel
– Natural Environment Research Council
• Scenarios in scientific assessment– ACACIA Project
– National Water Demand Management Centre
– Digital Futures Project
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Lessons
Scenario exercises can play two roles:
• Expands the range of future outcomes that are considered in strategy/planning (policy learning)
• Engagement with scenario elaboration precipitates self-reflection, preparing the ground for change (organisational learning)
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Lessons: Getting the process right
• Preparation
• Workshop moderation
• Analysis and reporting– Symmetry
– Balance
– Triangulation
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Summary
• Views of the future are ubiquitous
• Scenarios are one way of ordering views about the future
• Scenario approaches have a long history, especially in integrated environmental assessments
• There are different ways of conducting a scenarios exercise – some of them quite simple
• The results of scenarios are often difficult to embed in current decision-making