inside the rice no. 056 28 november 2013 the rice no. 056 28 november 2013 gaotrade co. ltd gafta...
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INSIDE THE RICE No. 056 28 November 2013
GAOTRADE CO. LTD
GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 - 00221 770 990 408 [email protected] 1
E.U. Rice Ex Mill Bulk
USD
/MT
Euro
/Mt
$ /Mt Euro
/Mt
$/Mt Euro/Mt
12
Dec
2011
12 Dec
2011
13
Jan 2013
13
Jan 2013
28 Nov
2013
28 Nov
2013
Originario Round Japonica 705 560 555
Medium Japonica Lido/ Flipper 6 mm 760 560 857 635
Roma Lg jap 7,18 mm 640 940
Baldo LG Jap 7,35 mm 880 680 950
Arborio LG japonica Top 7,37 mm 1070 700 990
INDICA LG Milled 7,61 mm 630 570 550
Parboiled Baldo LG Jap 980 680 1000
Parboiled INDICA Lg 720 630 625
Broken ¾ to more than ½ grain 380 365 380
Broken ½ grain 370 355 375
Rice Bran Row 150
Broken less ¼ sortex 300 335
Egyptian White Medium 5 % Fob FCL Alexandria 730
Egyptian Broken grade zero C and F in FCL Rtrdm 370
EU import Tax on Milled Broken Euro/T 65
EU import tax on Brown any rice Euro/T 30
Spain Blanco Japonica MG Sevilla NA
Russian Rice Future groats G 1 - 14 % Br
WM
Ex Mill Krasn Bulk 623 468
522
Soft Wheat FOB Rouen Soft Wheat FOB Marseille
246.50
202 194
Yellow Maize ex Bordeaux 237.00 218 176
Durum Wheat France South port PLN FOB 285.00 240
THAILAND FOB 50 Kg PP bags USD/ MT
EURO/MT
$ /Mt Euro/
Mt $ Euro
Thailand milled Long Grain Indica New Crop
Thai White Rice 100% B 600 560 405
Thai White Rice 5% 585 550 395
Thai OLD CROP White Rice 5 % Na
Thai White Rice 10% 580 545 390
Thai White Rice 15% 575 540 385
Thai White Rice 25% 570 535 375
100 Broken A1 Super 545 525 345
Fragrant A1 Super 540 560 420
Parboiled milled rice 100% Whole long grain Sortexed
590 575
445
Hom Mali 92% Purity or Jasmine Rice Equiv 5% 1075 1080 1060
PAKISTAN FOB Stowed 50 Kg Karachi or In
Container FCL 20 “
$/MT
EURO/MT
USD/MT EURO/
MT $ Euro
Irri 6 Milled
WRLG IRRI 6 with 5 % Broken sortexed DP 435 390
WRLG IRRI 6 with 10 % Brkn WM 425 370
INSIDE THE RICE No. 056 28 November 2013
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WRLG IRRI 6 with 15 % Brkn W Milled 394 360
WRLG IRRI 6 with 15 % Brkn Standard 380 350
WR LG 25 max standard Milling 395 372 340
100% Broken Sortex Double polished 365 350 330-335
PK 386 Long Grain 2 % Na
Super Basmati Milled 2 % Old Crop 990 NA
IRRI 9 Milled 2 % 720 715
Parboiled LG 5 % Broken max SRTXD 440 420
Small Broken w m d sortexed 1,7 -2,5 mm Human consumption
NA
BASMATI D 98 with 2 % broken na
INDIA FOB Stowed 50 kg If Container premium $ 15/Mt to Vizag
$ EURO $ /Mt Euro/
Mt $ Euro
Parboiled 106 Long grain milled 5 Srtxd Kandla 510
White Milled Rice LG PR 106 Well Milled Sortexed DP 5
Kandla 520
WR LG PR 106 WM 5% Br Standard Kandla 500
WRLG PR 106 25 % Br R W M Kandla 440
Broken sortexed super PR 106 Kandla NA
W R IR 64 Long grain 5% DP sortex Kakinada 435 435 400
W R IR 64 Long grain 5% Standard WM 420 390
Par Boiled IR 64 Sortex Well milled 5 % Kakinada 428 385-390
W R IR 64 L G 15 % well milled
WR IR 64 long grain 25 % well milled 410 395
BROWN PARBOILED SORTEXED LG 6 mm 400 375
BROWN LG IR 64 /IR 38 SRTXD LG 6 mm 390 375
Super Broken Sortex D P water polished Kernel more than 1,5 MM IR 64
325
285
Broken less than 1.5 mm well milled human consumption
305
270
1121 PUSA BASMATI 2 % ex Mill Rps/100 Haryana Punjab
Pure Basmati milled 2 % ex Mill Rps/100 810
Medium Grain Swarna Sortexed 5% DP 5.5 mm max
Kakinada 395 Nov
crop
Med G Swarna 15 % broken Indica WM Kakinada NA
Med G Swarna 25 % Broken Standard milling RWM
Kakinada 370 Nov crop
355
PARBOILED Medium Grain SRTX WM 5 br 1001-Swarna 5.7 mm
395 370
VIETNAM FOB 50 kg traditional vessel
$ EURO $ /Mt
Euro/ Mt
$/Mt
LG Milled 5% WM DP ¾ basis 495 415 415
10% Br basis 3/4 WM 490 405 405
15% Br basis 2/3 WM 475 395 400
LG Reasonably Mill 25 % Br basis ½ grain 460 380 390
INSIDE THE RICE No. 056 28 November 2013
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A1 Super broken Well Milled 425 355 355
Jasmine Broken Pure sortex DP 400 420
LG Fragrant Rice 5 purity 90% W M DP 5% 760 750
LG Jasmine 90 % purity 5 WM D Polished 600 595
MERCOSUR $ EURO $ /Mt Euro/
Mt $ Euro
Long Grain
Uruguay Long Grain Sortexed 5% broken Bagged FOB
565 625
600-590
Uruguay PB Brown LG in Bulk in FCL 525
Uruguay Brown Long Grain FOB bulk FCL Na NA
Brazil LG 5 % broken bulk FAS + empty bag on board of vessel $ 10 /t
560 Na
Brazil LG 20 % Broken Fas +empty bags On board $ 10/mt
Na
Uruguay Parboiled 5 Sortexed bagged Fob 595 575 570
Brazil Parboiled 5 Sortexed bulk FAS empty bags $ 10/ Mt
555 565
550
São Paolo Milled LG Tipo 1 wholesaler 30 Kg bags Local Market
843 575-590
Uruguay broken 100 % Srtx FOB Bagged NA 340
Brazilian Broken FAS Bulk RGS port Bulk 330 N Crop 320
PADDY ex mill bulk cash 58 whole grain min
$ EURO $ /Mt Euro/
Mt $ Euro
Italy Long Grain Indica Paddy 385 285 392 295 300
Brazil Long Grain Indica RGSul 286 343 257 304 225
Italy Medium Grain Japonica 472 350 379 285 350
Italy Arborio Paddy LG Japonica 330 550
Italy Round Grain
396 416
285
310
Russian Round Grain Japonica Yield 50 whole grain ex farm Krasnodar
10500 355 300
331
Indian Long Grain Indica ex farm Minimum Support Government 2013-14
1310 211
Free Market average North to South 1400 233
Egypt Paddy LG ex farm 410 300 210
Thai Long Grain Indica Gov Price Bath/Mt Main Crop Second crop
15000 13000
479
415
Thai Hom Mali Paddy Gov Price Bath/Mt Main Crop
20000
639
China Medium /short Grain Japonica 444 470
China early crop LG Future Paddy 386 432 436
Vietnam LG Indica ex Mekong Farm dry Paddy
300 220
230
Indonesian paddy Indica LG 404
CAMBODIA $ EURO $
Euro/ Mt
$ Euro
INSIDE THE RICE No. 056 28 November 2013
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Cambodia Milled Long Grain FOB bulk
Jasmine Top quality Pk Malis 5 pct FOB 920 935 910
Milled rice Long Grain Broken 5 % 505 460
Fragrant top Quality KDM 5 % 860
Broken 100 % Well milled FOB NA
USA Ex mill bulk $ $c/CWT $/MT $/Cwt $/Mt
LG MILLED N 2 –Broken 4 % TEXAS 595 27.5 30.50
LG MILLED N 2 – Broken 4 % Louisiana 27 28.00
MEDIUM Californian 1 827 34 749 31.5 694
SHORT GRAIN CALIF n 1 34.5 33.50
Parboiled L G L/Tx/Ark average 33 727 33.00
Broken Second Heads LG 374 19.5 18.50
Broken Second Heads Medium Grain Cal 329 24.5 22.00
Brewers Broken average 17 18.50
Brewers Broken California Medium 18.5 18.00
Rice Bran ex mill on truck Louisiana USD /Mt 200 185
2 Sept
2012
27 Jan
2013
15
August
2013
4 October
2013
28 November
2013
Corn USA Future 8.11 7.20 4.73 4.36 4.24
Wheat Soft USA
future
8.73 7.70 6..31 6.88 6.52
Paddy Rice Future 15.01 15.26 15..55 14.97
Nov
15.80
Euro /USD 1.3469 1.3305 1.3600 1.3555
INSIDE THE RICE No. 056 28 November 2013
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GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 - 00221 770 990 408 [email protected] 5
PHILIPPINES
It will be difficult to establish the amount of crop has been lost after the Typhoon!!!
18 November Typhoon affected a total of 13 million people and over 4 million displaced lost all they had
Total population: 103.000.000 estimated in 2012
80 % of the population lives in rural area
70% of the population depend for their income from agriculture
30-33% of the population are employed in agriculture
There are 4.800.000 Farms in Philippines covering
9.700.000 ha land use in Agri production
4.700.000 ha land used for Rice production
3.300.000 ha occupied by Coconuts
2.700.000 ha is Corn
600.000 ha used by Sugar cane
700.000 ha used for Fruit
122.000 ha of coffee
65.000 ha in vegetable
26.000 ha of tobaccos
7,100 islands: The Philippines NFA has approved rice imports of up to 500,000 tons to improve buffer rice
stocks in an emergency meeting last Friday.
NFA has distributed about 300.000 tons of rice so far in relief operations
Rice crop losses due to the typhoon are estimated at below 1.2 million tons milled
Philippines as of October 1, 2013 all Country rice stock paddy and milled were around 1.7 million tons, down
about 11% from last year. NFA stood at around 400,000 tons milled basis, down about 23% from last year,
before the Typhoon Yolanda!!! How many tons after ….???
Private normally hold the balance of the country stocks but after the Typhoon Yolanda nobody knows the real
situation and existence of the private paddy stocks all over the affected areas .
Typhoon Haiyan has wiped out 1/3 of the Philippines’ rice growing areas according to the UN Food and
Agriculture Organisation. FAO has downgraded its forecast for the 2013 rice production in the country from
18.9 million tons to 18 million tons, on 19 November.
INSIDE THE RICE No. 056 28 November 2013
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The rice production shortfall of 900,000 tons will be felt disproportionally in the 5 most affected
regions. The Eastern Visayas region, the worst affected region has a total rice growing area of 157,632
hectares accounting for 22% of its total agriculture area. In 2012, the region had a total rice production output
of 994,972 metric tons supplying the region’s basic staple needs. Imports of rice are expected to increase by
20% next year to 1.2 million tonnes. NFA tender on its way in Vietnam to purchase the urgent requirement.
Official figures:
At the time of the Typhoon Yolanda harvesting of the 2013 main season paddy crop, representing
60 % of annual production, was well advanced, while planting of the mostly irrigated 2013/14 2nd
season crop
had started. The usual harvesting period of Main Crop start in August and end in half October. The 2nd
crop
harvest start in February up to half April. So the 2nd
crop sowing period started in mid September up to mid
November. Most of the farmers will need to re sow the rice and 2nd
crop harvest will delay minimum 1 month
If the seeds are available in the affected area!!!! Typhoon Nari already damaged 230.000 ha in beginning
October 2013.
Region affected by Typhoon Paddy HA Paddy Sowed Annually % on total
Mimaropa 227.000
Biscol 340.000
Western Vuisayas 644.000
Central Visayas 106.000
East Visayas 287.000
Total affected area 1.655.000 35
Total Paddy area Philippines 4.697.000 100
Paddy crop Ha /000 sowed Crop paddy mt Milled Rice
2011-12 4560 17.000.000 10.200.000
2012-13 4698 18.140.000 10.880.000
2013-14 Forecast 4750 18.570.000 11.100.000
Official estimates!!!!! HA affected Philippines Pesos losses
Total crops affected 153.000 4.700.000.000
Rice paddy 77.500 2.400.000.000
Corn 20.900 285.000.000
Other crops 45.000 2.100.000.000
Livestock 2.300.000.000
Irrigation systems 500.000.000
Fisheries 1.000.000.000
Agr infrastructure 1.600.000.000
INSIDE THE RICE No. 056 28 November 2013
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USA
Exports 8-14 November 2013
Rice sales:
Mexico (61,900 MT), Turkey (29,800 MT), Libya (24,100 MT), Colombia (17,600 MT), and Haiti (15,000
MT). Israel (100 MT).
Loading activity:
46,500 MT Mexico (20,300 MT), Japan (13,100 MT), Haiti (4,500 MT), Canada (2,600 MT), and the United
Kingdom (1,600 MT).
THAILAND
A lot of talks …but the quotations are moving down every week!
Shortage of finance to support the Pledging Program!
Office of Agricultural Economics forecast output of the next 2013/14 secondary season, at 38 million
tonnes, some 4 percent higher than the above-average crop in 2012-13
Harvesting of the 2013 maize crop was completed by mid-September. Latest official estimates point to a crop
of 5 million tonnes, similar to last year’s bumper output.
Rice Situation Nov 2013
Rice milled exports (excluding premium white rice and fragrant rice) for November 4-10, 2013
totalled 31,439 metric tons, down 11,258 metric tons from the previous week, and down 12,963 metric tons
from the four- week moving average of 44,402 metric tons (Table 3).
Exports of white and parboiled rice from January 1 through November 10, 2013 totalled 2,808,438 metric
tons, down 36 % from 4,376,208 metric tons in the same period last year, mainly due to a reduction in
parboiled rice exports.
Total rice exports (including premium white rice and fragrant rice) from January 1 through September
30th
, 2013 amounted to approximately 4.6 million metric tons, down 33% less than the maximum exported
quantity in 2011.
Govt expects more rice deals with China in 2014
The Commerce Ministry expects to sell more rice to China and other countries next year after
clinching a contract to supply about 3 million tonnes to China this year.
"The government should be able to release more rice from stockpiles next year. Now less than 7 million
tonnes remains in warehouses from a total of 10 million tons," Commerce Minister N.Boonsongpaisan said.
The ministry's Foreign Trade Department signed a government-to-government contract with Chinese
state-owned Beijing Great Northern Wilderness Rice Industry, a subsidiary of Heilongjiang province's
Beidahuang, to supply 1.2 million tons of 5% white rice over two years and 90,000 tonnes of tapioca to China.
Niwatthumrong said the government was negotiating more rice contracts with China and other
countries. The ministry did not disclose the value of the contract with China, saying price was in line with
market price and should not create a huge loss for the government.
INSIDE THE RICE No. 056 28 November 2013
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China will choose its own rice quality improving and shipping company under an ex-warehouse
contract, which excludes shipping costs. About 50,000 tons of rice will be shipped to that country each
quarter. For this year, about 15,000 tons will be exported to China.
This is the 3rd
contract with China this year. The first was signed by the Thai Rice Exporters
Association and China's state-owned Cofco (China National Cereals, Oils and Foodstuffs Corporation) for 1
million tons over 5 years. The next contract was a G2G deal between the Foreign Trade Department and
Cofco, also for 1 million tons over 5 years.
The ministry scheduled to sell 131,849 tons on the Agricultural Futures Exchange of Thailand last
week. This included 114,000 tons of 5% white rice and 17,000 tons of 100% jasmine rice.
Deputy Commerce Minister Y. Phuangrach said the government would gradually release rice for the Thai
Stock market.
The government will issue a 75-billion-baht bond to finance the rice-pledging scheme as it has failed
to pay farmers since the main crop began in October. The programme, which pays farmers 15,000 baht /ton
for the grain, is the ruling Pheu Thai government's core campaign promise, so it is reluctant to scrap the
scheme despite strong criticism from academics and international organisations about its massive losses.
The government has not been able to pay farmers for 2 months because the Bank of Agriculture and
Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC) has lacked the mandate to borrow more until January next year.
The delay may cost the government supporters at the ballot box as farmers threatened to join anti-government
protests if the programme is scrapped.
The Public Debt Management Office (PDMO) said yesterday the BAAC will issue a 3 years bond
worth 75 billion baht to continue the scheme. "The bond will be sold to the public on Nov 29," said S.
Rojanawanich, the office's public debt adviser. The note is part of 140-billion-baht budget the government
allocated to the scheme by guaranteeing BAAC's borrowings to finance the 2013/14 crop. Of the 140 billion,
105 billion will be drawn this year and 35 billion next year. For this year, 75 billion will come from the bond
and 30 billion will be term loans or overdue loans. Next year the BAAC will consider whether to issue bonds
or another term loan.
The scheme's massive losses may undermine investor confidence in the BAAC's bonds as it is widely
expected that the Commerce Ministry, which is in charge of selling the rice, has not sold enough to repay the
BAAC's debt. Mr Suwit added the previous 185 billion baht in bonds issued by the BAAC to fund the scheme
will also be converted into fully guaranteed bonds by the government. "This is quite expensive compared to 3
to 4 years ago when the bank could borrow cheaply. It resulted in a purchase delay as investors waited for
higher offers in line with rising interest rates. The PDMO's move will help restore confidence in the BAAC's
debt," said Mr Prakob.
In a related development, the government's effort to auction 452,538 tons of rice yesterday drew a
lukewarm response from potential buyers, with only 4 exporters participating. The tender was the 6th
held by
the government, which is under pressure to offload the huge stockpile.
Of the 452,538 tons put on the block yesterday, 300,275 are Thai Hom Mali and Hom Mali broken rice for
export and local sale, and 152,263 tons are 5% white rice for exports.
From the proposed 6 auctions for a combined 2 million tons, the government has sold only 700,000-800,000
tons to date.
The government has returned 140 billion baht this year from rice sales to the BAAC and expects to
return 24 billion more this year, well below the 200 billion baht it aimed to repay earlier.
INSIDE THE RICE No. 056 28 November 2013
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Year Thai Export Total Milled
Rice Export MT
Broken White
A1 Export MT
Parboiled all
Mt
Fragrant
including
broken
Fragrant
Broken
1980 2,670,000 505,000 295,000 0
1988 4,790,000 513,000 759,000 150,000
1998 6,360,000 575,000 920,000 1,100,000
2002 5,800,000 729,000 1,645,000 1,706,000 420,000
2005 5,000,000 250,000 1,870,000
2008 7,470,.000 419,000 2,750,000 2,500,000 694,000
2010 6,650,000 190,000 3,179,000
2011 8,290,000 270,000 3,430,000 2,317,000 770,000
2012 5,020,000 20,000 2,176,000 1,925,000 520,000
2013 August 4,137,000 NA 915,000 960,000 286.000
2013 October 4.600.000
2013 Total expected 5,500,000
EUROPEAN RICE IMPORTS
Period 1 Sept 2013 – 22 November, 2013
Milled rice basis New Campaign 2013-14
Japonica total 18.000 Mt (brown and milled)
Indica total 181,000 Mt (brown and milled)
Broken rice 69,000Mt (milled)
Import packed Milled Rice in EU 2012-13 campaign
Up to 5 Kg: Mt 52000
From 5 to 20 Kg: Mt 137.000
Main supplier
Thailand 82.000 Mt, Cambodia 45.000 Mt India 22.000 Mt Pakistan 12.000 Mt
EU IMPORT MT
1st Sept to 1st Sept
2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
Up to 22
Nov
BASMATI TOTAL 313.000 318.000 330.000 360.000 71..000
INDIA SHARE 220.000 174.000 274.000 290.000 41.000
PAKISTAN SHARE 70.000 30.000
***
INSIDE THE RICE No. 056 28 November 2013
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RUSSIA
2013/14 harvest in Russia (Krasnodar main region) reached the 660.000 mt of paddy, which is far less from
2012/13 harvested more than 1 Million mt. The planted area was 50.000 hectares less than last year.
EGYPT
One export license for long and medium grain was under approval last week, but it is in stand-by!!!!!
Egypt’s General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) will pay higher prices for purchase of
220,000 tons of milled white rice from Egyptian farmers and millers to implement the government food
subsidy program for November and December 2013.
According to local sources, GASC will pay around $405 – $421/ton in domestic tenders this month, up
about $8 – $18/ton from around $397-$403/ton paid for the purchase of 111,000 tons of rice in tenders
awarded on September 19, 2013. Farmers had expressed disappointment at low prices in September and had
urged the government to increase purchase prices to help them recover increasing production costs. However,
the new prices are still down about $50/ton or around 11% from around $470/ton paid in the August tender.
Meanwhile, local sources also say that the Egypt government has decided to continue the rice export
ban it had put in place in May 2013 until the harvest season in September – October to control rice prices.
Sources say that the government continued the ban to ensure rice supply for the implementation of the food
subsidy program under which around 100,000 tons of rice is required per month.
INDIA
AROMATIC RICE – 22nd
November - NEW DELHI
In the last 30 days despite expectation of the new crop arrival the price moved up again!
Basmati new crop arrival is short
In the physical market, Rs /100 kg ex Mill Punjab –Haryana
New Pusa-1121 (steam) new crop sold at Rs 9100
New Pusa-1121 (sela-parboiled) from Rs 7,500 to 8000
Pusa-1509 (sela -parboiled) at Rs 6,050-6,250
Pure Basmati (raw-white milled) up from Rs 12,000 to 12700
Duplicate Basmati (steam) up from Rs 6,700 to 7500
Non-basmati:
Sharbati (steam) went up from Rs 4,950-5,000 to 5500
Sharbati (sela) up from Rs 4,200 to 5200
Permal (raw- milled) sold at Rs 2,350-2,400
Permal (sela-parboiled), at Rs 2,400
PR-11 (sela-parboiled) from Rs 2,900 to 3300
PR-11 (raw-milled) at Rs 3,000-3,100
PR14 (steam) improved from Rs 3,150 to 3400
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Paddy arrivals 22 November in Terminal Market
About 20,000 bags of PR paddy arrived around 30,000 bags of Pusa-1121, while 10 000 bags of Sharbati
5,000 bags of duplicate Basmati and 1,000 bags of pure Basmati.
Exchange rate INRs /USD 62.45
Exporters said forecast shipments of basmati this fiscal is likely to reach 4 million tons as against 3.6 million
tons achieved last fiscal year!!!!
INDIA –IRAN Rupee Pact unsecure
Another bilateral trade and payment mechanism — the Asian Clearing Union (ACU) — was
terminated by the RBI in December 2010 under US pressure.
Under the recent rupee trading agreement of February 2012, India’s UCO Bank is nominated to deal with 4
Iranian banks for payment in a 55:45 ratio of hard currency and rupees, respectively.
However, the US and the EU have applied pressure by denying insurance, particularly shipping
insurance, to Iran-origin cargo. On February 6, 2013, the US mandated that India must pay Iran entirely in
rupees for the import of crude oil, to which Iran has remained defiant. With greater advancement in non-
proliferation talks, Iran’s attitude on the rupee payment arrangement may harden.
All bilateral or special trading agreements come about due to political and economic necessities.
They collapse later, leaving many unsettled issues. The Indo-Iran rupee agreement is moving towards such a
sunset state. The Indo-Iranian mechanism has proved to be a blessing for Indian trade — especially exporters
of basmati rice ($2 billion), soymeal ($0.6 billion) annually.
Other traditional items such as tea, coffee, textiles, and pharmaceuticals have also witnessed better
export prospects. Price realisation and profitability per unit is better than other conventional markets. Corn
and raw sugar export from India is also picking up, though slowly.
Indian companies are, however, exposed to OFAC (Office of Foreign Assets Control of US)
surveillance. Their non-Iranian business may be restricted through punitive actions on banks dealing with
remittance to Iran.
Iran’s exports to India peaked to $13 billion in 2012-13 for supply of crude oil, urea, petroleum
products, saffron, dry fruits...India has decided to bring down crude oil imports from Iran by 12%, or 1.6
million tons (mt), during the current financial year.
RICE S&D INDIA
Milled / 000 Mt 2010-12 2012-13 2013-14
Beginning Stocks 23.500 25.100 24.000
Milled production 105.000 104.000 107.000
Total exports 10.250 9.000 8.000
End stocks 25.100 24.000 25.000
Consumption 93.000 96.000 98.000
INSIDE THE RICE No. 056 28 November 2013
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PAKISTAN
June 2012/July 2013 Campaign export (Milled Rice in Mt)
BASMATI RICE NON BASMATI RICE
Super Basmati White 353.000 Irri 9 Lg W R 41.000
Parboiled Basmati 40.000 Irri 6 Lg Wr 2.427.000
Basmati White standard 160.000 Irri Lg Blended 221.000
Brown Basmati 76.000 Pb Irri 9 Lg 24.000
Pb Irri 6 Lg 121.000
Pb Lg Blended 23.000
TOTAL 2012-2013 630.000 TOTAL 2.858.000
July –October 2013 173.000 July-October 2013 564.000
CAMBODIAN
Rice Exported by Months from 2010 to 2013 in Mt Milled Rice
Monthly 2010 2011 2012 2013
1. January 10,012 6,798 9,703 25,726
2. February 13,644 5,089 14,417 24,089
3. March 5,062 12,534 12,310 45,413
4. April 17,287 17,946 15,036 23,276
5. May 5,499 20,520 13,115 28,350
6. June 17,990 4,274 13,426 29,105
7. July 15,030 12,703 20,527 31,411
8. August 5,997 20,404 15,530 29,358
9. September 4,744 14,384 15,169 29.395
10. October 6,078 19,067 16,967 28,000
11. November 7,988 9,559 25,189 --
12. December 9,645 44,905 34,328 --
Total Yearly 105,259 201,899 205,717
INSIDE THE RICE No. 056 28 November 2013
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TOP IMPORTERS FROM CAMBODIA 2013
Monthly /Tons
POL FRA MAL THAI NETH CHINA
Jan 5,880 4,307 7,077
1,116 1,228
Feb 2,520 4,592 2,438 2,750 1,634 1,988
Mar 6,800 6,270 2,622 10,250 817 5,538
Apr 2,376 3,737 2,639 1,250 958 2,762
May 4,603 4,166 2,032 3,250 2,070 1,171
June 5,585 3,366 3,287 4,750 1,068 392
July 5,112 4,384 4,746 500 2,308 303
Aug 5,107 5,582 3,887 300 3,887 1,237
Sep 5,392 4,707 3611 250 3,580 1,283
Oct 6,332 5,687 1934 250 1,932 756
Nov
Dec
Total 10 months 49,707 46,798 34,273 23,550 19,370 16,658
VIETNAM
Philippines tender on its way for 500.000 mt.
Vietnam cuts 2013 rice export target to 6.7 million tons.
The Vietnam Food Association (VFA) reports Vietnam has cut its 2013 rice export target by 4%,
down to 6.7 million tons from the earlier goal of 7.2 million tons. Vietnamese exporters have cancelled some
Chinese contracts due to low prices and are shifting attention to the domestic market. Thai competitors will
also challenge Vietnamese rice exporters.
VFA said Vietnam’s rice export volume total 5.733 million tons after the first 10 months of this year,
valued at US$2.466 billion (FOB) or US$2.553 billion (CIF), and sliding 12% from 2012.
Rice paddy production 2012-13: 43.500.000 mt (same as last year)
Maize production 5.100.000 mt (+6 % on last year)
Cereals import total 2012-13: 3.870.000 mt
INTERNATIONAL SITUATION RICE 2013-14
Global rice production for 2013/14 is forecast at a record 473.2 million tons (milled basis),
down 3.6 million tons from last month’s forecast but still up almost 1% from a year earlier.
At a record 160.3 million hectares, global rice area in 2013/14 is up 2.9 million hectares from a
year earlier. Burma, Cambodia, China, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, and Thailand
account for most of the year-to-year area increase.
Elsewhere in Asia, Pakistan’s 2013/14 production forecast was lowered 400,000 tons to 6.0
million tons based on a weaker yield caused by floods.
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China’s 2013/14 crop was lowered 500,000 tons to 141.5 million based on drought and high
temperatures in July and August that adversely impacted the late-season rice crop in southern
China.
India’s 2013/14 production forecast was lowered 3.0 million tons to 105.0 million tons
In South America, Brazil’s 2013/14 production forecast was lowered 100,000 tons to 8.2
million tons based on Government data indicating a smaller area estimate and slightly weaker
yields. Argentina’s 2013/14 crop was lowered 65,000 tons to 975,000 tons
Nigeria’s 2013/14 production forecast was lowered 328,000 tons to 2.77 million tons based
on much lower yield reported by the Agr. statistics office in Lagos.
Sri Lanka’s 2013/14 production forecast was raised 290,000 tons to a near-record 3.05 million
tons.
South Korea’s 2013/14 crop projection was increased 72,000 tons to 4.24 million tons based a
higher yield reported by the government that resulted from favorable weather during the
critical filling stages in September.
Colombia’s 2013/14 production forecast was raised 180,000 tons to 1.36 million tons based on
a much higher yield resulting from favourable weather conditions. Despite the upward
revision, area, yield, and production remain well below levels achieved 5 years ago.
Guyana’s 2013/14 production forecast was increased 28,000 tons to a record 470,000 tons
based on record area and a slightly higher yield.
Mexico’s 2013/14 crop forecast was raised 7,000 tons to 129,000 tons based a slightly higher
yield reported
Imports FORECAST 2014 forecast
Nigeria’s 2014 import forecast was raised 600,000 tons to 3.0 million tons based on a smaller crop and
stronger purchases in 2013.
Cote d’Ivoire’s 2014 import forecast was increased 150,000 tons to 1.25 million based on a recent
faster pace of imports. Despite the upward revision, Cote d’Ivoire’s imports remain below the 2012
record of 1.4 million tons.
Tanzania’s 2014 import forecast was raised 60,000 tons to 200,000 tons, also based on a faster pace in
2013.
Ghana’s imports increased 50,000 tons to 600,000 tons.
Peru’s 2013 import forecast reduced 50,000 tons to 200,000 tons,
BRAZIL
Production: 2012/2013 production is estimated at 7.99 mmt, up marginally from last year. Production
for 2013/2014 is forecast at 8.3 mmt. New cold-resistant seed varieties are increasing yields in the state of Rio
Grande de Sul, where 70 % of Brazilian rice is grown.
Trades: In 2012/2013, Brazil shipped 93 thousand metric tons (tmt) of paddy rice to Venezuela,
Nicaragua, and Costa Rica. The industry states that shipping paddy is not a priority and traders will fill market
demands as necessary.
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Iraq recently announced that it will accept Brazil origin rice in its rice tenders and imported 29000 mt
of Brazilian rice in 2012.
For 2013/2014 rice exports are forecast at 1 Mio mt.
Consumption: For 2012/2013 and 2013/2014, rice consumption is placed at 7.85 Mio mt and 7.9 Mio mt,
Ending stocks estimate at 700.000 mt milled basis end 2013 season
Paddy Prices:
Pelotas R$ in 50 kg ex farm gate
November 2012 …………. 39.12
November 2013……………34.83
CHINA 2014 - Rice Production
2013/14 rice production is revised down slightly to 141.5 million tons (milled). Drought and high
temperatures in July and August adversely impacted the late season rice yield in southern China. Rice
acreage is estimated at 30.4 million Ha, slightly lower than the previous estimate, as late season rice
planting failed in parts of southern provinces due to drought and high temperatures.
Trade:
2013/14 rice imports are estimated at 3.4 million tons, unchanged from the previous estimate.
2012/13 imports are estimated at 2.9 million tons based on exporter data.
China’s total TRQ for rice is 5.2 million tons on a calendar year basis (divided equally between Indica
and Japonica). In 2013, the government tightened TRQ controls and restricted the use of the Japonica TRQ to
import Indica rice. Japonica Paddy market price USD 497/mt ex warehouse cooperative.
The country's Japonica rice output stood at 64.44 million tonnes in 2012, accounting for 31.5% of
China's total rice production.
Researchers at China’s Agricultural University have concluded that testing on transgenic rice has so
far brought no abnormalities. The results came after 90 days’ of tests to see if the genetically modified food
had any health effects. -
INDIA
Rice Exports Steady.
According to the preliminary official statistics for January-March 2013, and April and May shipping
data compiled by a private source, rice exports in January-May 2013 are estimated at 4.05 MMT compared to
4.67 MMT during the corresponding period last year. Iran continues to remain the major buyer for Indian rice,
mostly Basmati and long grain non-Basmati. With the forecast of a normal monsoon and consequent
sufficient domestic rice production, government is unlikely to impose any export restrictions. At the current
pace of monthly exports, 2013 exports are likely to reach 9.0 MMT.
WEST AFRICA
Post lowered MY 2012/13 milled rice production to 180,000 tons Government of Burkina Faso
(GOBF) estimates. However, 180,000 tons is 15% higher than MY 2011/12 levels. -
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Government of Cote d’Ivoire (GOCI) estimates MY 2012/13 milled rice production at 500,000 tons,
up 10% from MY 2011/12 production (456,000 tons). Cote d’Ivoire was less affected by the drought in MY
2011/12 when production dropped only 14,000 tons from MY 2010/11.
Despite French and African forces battling Islamic extremists in the North Mali, rice production has
managed to increase. Government of Mali (GOM) estimates a 16 percent bump in milled rice production for
MY 2012/2013 at 1.3 million tons. However, production is still 13 % below MY 2010/11 levels, falling short
of its national target of 2.7 million tons by 2013 using rain-fed, total water control, and floating rice
production systems.
Government of Senegal (GOS) announced a 60% jump in paddy rice production to 443,000 tons for MY
2012/13 an increase compared to 2011/12. !!!!! In this moment there are many announcements from
The political management in Senegal .
MADAGASCAR
Crop and Food Assessment conducted in July, estimates national rice production in 2013 at 3.6 million
tons (2.4 million tons in milled terms).
At this level, the national rice harvest is estimated to have declined by 21 and 18% compared to the
above average harvest of 2012 and the previous five-year average, respectively.
Similarly, production of maize and cassava decreased by 15 and 14 % respectively compared to the
outputs of last year.
The 2012/13 cropping season (November-June) was characterized by erratic weather conditions, with
a slight delay to the start of seasonal rains, followed by a prolonged dry spell in December and January.
The cyclone season (October-April) brought heavy rains with the arrival of cyclones Felleng and
Haruna in January and February 2013, causing floods and crop damage in the north-east and south-western
areas.
The locust plague further contributed to a decrease in production, particularly in the south-west, both
through damage to vegetation and with many farmers citing the potential destruction of crops as a reason that
limited their plantings.
However, the south-western regions contribute only to a small proportion of the national rice output,
and therefore the impact of the locust plague at the national level has been more limited.
A locust campaign was launched in September, and spraying is expected to begin in late October, prior
to the start of the main planting period that is expected to commence in November.
IVORY COAST
Rice paddy production
2011-12 700.000 mt
2012-13 730.000 mt
Import 2012-13 total Cereals: 1.850.000 mt (2011-12 was 2.100.000 mt)
MOZAMBIQUE
Seasonal rains commenced in the second half of October in southern regions and some coastal areas,
aiding land preparation and planting for the 2013/14 cropping season (October-June).
Production estimates for the main 2012/13 season’s cereal crops, harvested in June, point to a slight increase
for maize, while sorghum is also estimated to be above the previous season’s level, at 188 000 tons.
Generally good climatic conditions were recorded across most of the country, largely accounting for
the production gains this year. However, flooding in the southern province of Gaza, resulted in the loss of
about 153 000 hectares of crops (approximately 3% of the total planted areas at the national level), including
maize, rice, beans and other vegetables.
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2012-13 Rice paddy production: 350.000 mt (stable on last 3 years average)
2012-13 Maize production: 1.600.000 mt
INDONESIA
RICE, MILLED October 2013 end
Production forecasted for 2013/14 paddy rice at a record 59 MMT.
Consumption milled rice 2012-13 was stable at 39.5 Mio mt
2012-13 production: 57 Mio mt
Total Imports in 2012-13: 480.000 mt received by BULOG
The Government increased the 2012/13 total rice allocation for the rice for the poor program (Raskin)
to 3.5 Mio MT. This decision was taken partly to offset increased fuel prices. Under raskin, rice will be
distributed to over 15 million families at the subsidized rate of Rp. 1,600/kg. Each family will be entitled to
15 kg of rice per month. As of mid October 2013, BULOG distributed 2.8 MMT of rice through the Raskin
program. 100.000 Mt were injected in the free market by BULOG in the first 10 months of 2013 to reduce the
average high price of local rice.
Record production is attributable to adoption of new, higher yielding varieties. 2012/13 production remains at
57 MMT.
Indonesia is expected to import 1 MMT of rice in 2012/13 and forecast same in 2013/14.
Indonesian regulations only permit the Indonesian logistics agency (BULOG) to import in staple rice.
Private importers are allowed to import specialty rice such as japonica, basmati, etc. Imports are tied
directly to BULOG’s ability to procure sufficient quantities of domestically produced rice at state prices. In
2012/13,
BULOG‘s procurement target is 3.2 MMT. They are equally required to hold 2 MMT in stocks by the end of
the year.
As of October 2013, BULOG had achieved its procurement goal and held 2.7 MMT of stocks. Given
these factors, it is unlikely that BULOG will require high imports in 2012/13. Imports remain at 1 MMT, the
majority of which is specialty rice. As of July 2013, specialty imports had reached 430,000 MT. There is still
uncertainty the quantity to be imported over 2014.
PERU
Soles 2.8 = 1 USD Arroz nacional – Soles/unit ex mills
Corriente (49 kilos) ………..93.87
Superior (49 kilos) ……….100.24
Sup.Despuntado (49 kilos) 105.70
Extra (50 kilos) …………..121.90
Imported
Uruguay Arroz Extra Rice long grain 50 kg 151.60 ($ 672 /Mt)
Market share imported Rice
80% Uruguay
6% Argentina
9% Brazil
8% others
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Imports 2013:
January 19’300 Mt
February 19’000 Mt
March 13’700 Mt
April 8’300 Mt
May 24’000 Mt
June 16’000 Mt
July 23’000 Mt
August 9’900 Mt
September 16’200 Mt
October 7’500 Mt
November 5’300 Mt
PAKISTAN
2013/14 production is forecast at 6.2 million tons, a 3% increase from 2012/13 as production
normalizes from the floods of 2012/2013, which adversely affected output.
2012/2013 rice production was lowered 13% from 6.8 to 6.0 million tons, which is 3% less than last
year’s production. Initial reports from the field were indicating a bumper harvest, but damages caused
by localized floods, in September 2012, in the far-off districts of Sindh & Baluchistan was more
severe than Rice, Milled initially reported. This is the 3rd
year in a row that Pakistan’s rice crop has
been adversely affected by flooding. 2011/12 production is adjusted downwards to 6.2 million tons, in
accordance with the latest government production data and industry estimates.
Trades:
In 2012/13, rice exports are lowered 15% from 3.8 to 3.2 million tons, due to the decrease in basmati
production, and electricity and gas shortages that reduced milling capacity. Rice exports in MY
2013/14 are also projected at 3.2 million tons, as electricity and gas shortages are expected to continue
and competition from exporting countries will remain high.
There are also some recent positive developments as China started importing non-basmati rice to the
tune of $30 million in January 2013.
Rice is a major Pakistani export to the United States. Out of $119 million in Pakistani agricultural
exports to the United States in 2012, rice exports comprised $18 million (15% of the total) registering
an increase of 18% over the preceding year.
Ending stocks 2013 estimated at 900.000 mt lower than previous year at 1.400.000 mt
Traditionally, about 45% of the crop is used for local consumption, with the balance exported. Pakistanis, in
general, prefer the higher priced Basmati rice which is consumed by more affluent consumers due to the price
differential with IRRI rice.
According to trade sources an estimated 200,000 tons of 100% broken rice is used in poultry and Animal feed
annually.
IRAQ
Despite the losses, however, the official preliminary estimates put the overall cereal harvest in 2013 at
a record high of about 4.7 million mt , 54% above last year’s below average crop, affected by long dry spells
in winter, and about 43% above the average.
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Iraq’s rice planting, at around 80,000 hectares, is 24% below the Ministry of Agriculture target of
106,000 hectares. According to the USDA, Iraq is expected to produce about 180,000 tons of rice (milled
basis) in 2013-14, and import around 1.4 million tons to meet domestic demand.
Forecast of cereal import requirements in marketing year 2013/14 (July/June) is put at 4.4 million tons,
including 2.8 million tons of wheat and 1.3 million tons of rice. Despite above average domestic harvest, large
import requirements are driven by Iraq’s aim to maintain 3 to 6 months supply of wheat in its food stocks, as
well as commitment to supply each Iraqi citizen with 9kgs of subsidised flour monthly. Iraqi traders often
seek higher quality wheat with more protein and gluten for blending rather than the cheapest origins.
Food Distribution System, continues to subsidize basic staple food commodities (rice, wheat flour,
vegetable oil, sugar and baby milk formula)
IRAN
Cereal imports expected to decline in 2013/14 compared to last year but would still remain high
Rice production paddy 2013: 2.540.000 mt (harvest June-July)
Total grain Imports 2008/09 ……….12.100.000 mt
Total grain imports 2012/13………..14.100.000 mt
Forecast imports 2013/14 ………….10.700.000 mt
Total cereal imports forecast 2013 -14 are forecast at about 11 million tons in 2013/14 (April/March), about
25% less than last year’s high levels but still 8% above the average of the last 5 years.
Maize (4 million tons),
Wheat (4 million tons),
Rice milled (1.5 million tons)
Barley (1.2 million tons)
The forecast wheat imports, at about 4 million tons, are 1/3 less than last year, mainly due to higher
carryover stocks following large purchases in 2012.
Iran’s state grain buyer continues to build its strategic stocks in light of concerns about domestic food
security.
Rial (the local currency) has been experiencing devaluation since 2011, in early July 2013 the Central
Bank devalued the national currency’s fixed subsidized rate from IRR 12 260 for USD 1 to IRR 24 779. This
sharp devaluation of the Rial contributed to increased concerns about inflationary pressures and food security
by limiting the purchasing power of the population, especially of the poor. The Rial depreciation is tied to
international sanctions and lower oil exports.
SAUDI ARABIA
Saudi Arabia’s rice per capita consumption is estimated at 42 kg/year.
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Basmati is currently the most popular rice variety in the Saudi market. The American long and
medium grain rice varieties are well known, but Saudi consumers’ preference for these varieties has shifted to
the basmati varieties.
Rice is imported freely into Saudi Arabia by private companies, with zero import duty and no import
subsidy. 2012/13, Saudi rice imports are expected to be 1.193 million MT, while imports in MY 2013/14 are
projected to increase by 3%.
The first 11 months of 2012 (Jan-Nov) puts Indian rice import quota at 796,000 MT,
Basmati and Pusa Basmati 1121 Parboiled in fact represent 85 % of the total Saudi consumption
USA rice is still in second position with 110.000 mt imported of long grain
Pakistan Bamati e non Basmati imported 103.000 mt
Thailand import quota was about 69.000 mt on long grain parboiled
Egyptian white rice reached the 40.000 Mt
Australia also import 60.000 mt of white rice in 2012-13
More than 6.8 million expatriated workers live in Saudi Arabia mainly South East Asiatic origin.
AFGANISTAN
2013/14 Milled rice production forecasted at 460,000 MT from a harvested area of 205,000 hectares.
Pakistan will remain the dominant supplier of rice to Afghanistan as the country commands 95%
market share. (170.000 mt last year)
2012/13 milled rice consumption at 620,000 metric tons, a 2% increase from the previous marketing
year reflecting increased consumer demand for rice in urban areas.
2013/14 wheat production forecasted at 4.05 Mio Mt, a 2% decrease from the previous year
Wheat imports 2012-13 reached the 1.9 Mio Mt mainly Kazakistan –Uzbekistan and Pakistan
AUSTRALIA
MILLED RICE PRODUCTION
2012 …………………...660.000 MT
2013……………………835.000 MT
2014 …………………...750.000 MT ESTIMATION
2013 EXPORT ………...520.000 MT
Planted area forecasted to be reduced to 105.000 ha in 2014 against 113.000 ha last year
Rice varieties:
Amaroo Medium grain;
Koshihikari Japanese short grain,
Illabong equivalente to Arborio
Doongara long grain hard cooking;
Jasmine rice long grain.
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