inside the rice 035 12th november 2012 · pdf fileinside the rice 035 12th november 2012...

INSIDE THE RICE 035 12th November 2012

GAOTRADE CO. LTD

GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 - 0044 7799 357 425 [email protected] 1

EU Rice Euro/ton Ex Mill

USD/

MT

Euro

/ton

USD/

MT

Euro

/Mt

$ /Mt Euro

/Mt

15

Nov

2011

15

Nov

2011

12

Dec

12

Dec

13th

Nov

13th

Nov

ITALIAN Milled Rice 5 ex mill bulk cash Well milled 5 % max Broken ¾basis

Originario Round Japonica

700 705 575

Medium Japonica Lido/ Flipper 6 mm

755 760 702 560

Roma Lg jap 7,18 mm

650

Baldo LG Jap 7,35 mm

875 880 660

Arborio LG japonica Top 7,37 mm

1070 1070 740

INDICA LG Milled 7,61 mm

620 630 560

Parboiled Baldo LG Jap

970 980 670

Parboiled INDICA Lg

710 720 645

Broken ¾ to more than ½ grain

360 380 370

Broken ½ grain

370 350

Rice Bran Row

150

Broken less ¼ sortex

330

Egyptian White Medium 5 % Fob FCL Alexandria

715 558

EU import Tax on Milled Broken Euro/T 65

EU import tax on Brown any rice Euro/T 30

Spain Blanco Japonica MG Sevilla

NA

Russian Rice Future Groat s G 1 Stock

Exchange 587 459

Soft Wheat ex Rouen

349 273

Maize ex Bordeaux

325 254

Durum Wheat France South port PLN

384 300

THAILAND FOB 50 Kg PP bags USD/M

T EURO/MT

USD/ MT

EURO/MT

$ /Mt Euro/

Mt

Thailand milled Long Grain Indica New Crop

Thai White Rice 100% B 630

600 565

Thai White Rice 5% 610

585 550

Thai OLD CROP White Rice 5 %

Na


580 545


575 540


570 535

100 Broken A1 Super 550

545 495

Fragrant A1 Super 560

540 570

Parboiled milled rice 100% Whole long grain Sortexed

600

590 585

Hom Mali 92% Purity or Jasmine Rice Equiv 5% 1075

1075 1070

PAKISTAN FOB Stowed 50 Kg Karachi or

In Container FCL 20 “

$/MT

EURO/MT

$/MT EURO/

MT USD/M

T EURO/

MT

Irri 6 Milled

White Rice Long Grain 5 Sortexed Water polished

465

455 460

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/32/Flag_of_Spain_(Civil).svg


GAOTRADE CO. LTD


WRLG IRRI 6 with 5 % Brkn sortexed

450

WRLG IRRI 6 with 10 % Brkn WM

435

WRLG IRRI 6 with 15 % Brkn WMilled

410

WRLG IRRI 6 with 15 % Brkn Stndrd

400

WR LG 25 max standard Milling

395 385

100% Broken Sortexed Double polished 375

365 345

PK 386 Long Grain 2 %

Na

Super Basmati Milled 2 % Old Crop 970

990 1200

IRRI 9 Milled 2 %

720 715

ParBoiled LG 5 % Broken max SRTXD

445

Small Broken w m d sortexed 1,7 -2,5 mm Human consumption

NA

BASMATI D 98 with 2 % broken

860

INDIA FOB Stowed 50 kg If Container premium $ 15/Mt to Vizag

EURO $ EURO $ /Mt Euro/

Mt

Parboiled 106 Long grain milled 5 Srtxd Kandla

510

White Milled Rice LG PR 106 Well Milled Sortexed DP 5

Kandla

520

WR LG PR 106 WM 5% Br Standard Kandla

500

WRLG PR 106 25 % Br R W M Kandla

430

Broken sortexed super PR 106 Kandla

NA

W R IR 64 Long grain 5% DP srtxd Kakinada 450

435 440

W R IR 64 Long grain 5% Standard

430

Par Boiled IR 64 Sortex Well milled 5 % Kakinada

425

W R IR 64 L G 15 % well milled

WR IR 64 long grain 25 % well milled 390

410 395

BROWN PARBOILED SORTEXED

410

BROWN LG IR 64 SORTEXED

420

Super Broken Sortex D P water polished Kernel more than 1,7 MM IR 64

350 Short

Broken less than 2,5 mm well milled human consumption

330 Short

1121 PUSA BASMATI 2 % fob bagged Kandla

1150

Pure Basmati milled 2 % fob bagged Kandla 815

810 1100 N crop

Medium Grain Swarna Sortexed 5% DP Kakinada

415 N crop

Med G swarna 15 % broken Indica WM Kakinada

NA

Med G Swarna 25 % Broken Standard milling RWM

Kakinada

390 New crop

Milling wheat average local market 15-17000 277-314

Yellow Corn average local market 12-14000 222-259

VIETNAM FOB 50 kg $ EURO $ EURO $ /Mt Euro/

Mt

LG Milled 5% WM DP ¾ basis 560

495 460

10% Br basis 3/4 WM 555

490 455

15% Br basis 2/3 WM 540

475 447

LG Reasonably Mill 25 % Br basis ½ grain 510

460 425


GAOTRADE CO. LTD


A1 Super broken Well Milled 450

425 385

Fragrant Broken A1 Super WM DP

Na

LG Jasmine Rice WM DP 5% 690

655

KDM Fragrant 5 WM D Polished

780

MERCOSUR $ EURO $ EURO $ /Mt Euro/

Mt

Mercosur rice Long Grain Milled

Uruguay Long Grain 5% broken Bagged FOB

565

565 640

Uruguay PB Brown LG in Bulk in FCL

585

Uruguay Brown Long Grain FOB bulk FCL

Na

Brazil LG 5 % broken bulk FAS + empty bag on board of vessel $ 10 /t

560

560 Na

Brazil LG 20 % Broken Fas +empty bags On board $ 10/mt

Na

Uruguay Parboiled 5 Sortexed bagged Fob 590

595 655

Brazil Parboiled 5 Sortexed bulk FAS + empty bags $ 10/ Mt

585

555 630

São Paolo Milled LG Tipo 1 wholeseller 30 Kg bags Local Market

900

Uruguay broken 100 % FOB bagged Bagged

400

Brazilian Broken FAS Bulk RGS port Bulk

370

PADDY ex mill bulk cash 58 whole grain min

$ EURO $ EURO $ /Mt Euro/

Mt

Italy Long Grain Indica Paddy 430 315 385 285 335

Brazil Long Grain Indica RGSul 280

286 397

Italy Medium Grain Japonica 365

472 350 378 295

Italy Round Grain

310

Russian Round Grain Japonica Yield 50 whole grain ex farm

350

355 340

Indian Long Grain Indica ex farm Minimum Support Government

12500 235

Indian Long Grain Indica ex Mill Free Market average North to South

13500

254

Egypt Paddy Med/LG Japonica ex farm 400

410 310

Thai Long Grain Indica 11500 Bath /Mt

360

517 365

Thai Fragrant Paddy 14800

Bath /Mt 500

460

China Medium Grain Japonica Govern Price Paddy

444

China early crop LG Future July Paddy

386 427

Vietnam LG Indica ex Mekong Farm dry

5800 max Dong

311

300 279

Indonesian paddy Indica LG 404

CAMBODIA $ EURO $ EURO $

Euro/ Mt

Cambodia Milled Long Grain FOB bulk

FCL


GAOTRADE CO. LTD


Fragrant Top quality KDM 5 pct FOB bulk 935

920 955

Milled rice Long Grain Broken 5 % Na

515

Fragrant top Quality KDM C & F Rotterdam

Brown Fragrant Rice FOB

Na

Broken 100 % Well milled FOB

565

Broken 100 % Well milled C & F Rtdm

Na

USA Ex mill bulk $

$ $c/CWT $/MT

LG MILLED N 2 –Broken 4 % TEXAS

595 27 594

LG MILLED N 2 – Broken 4 % Louisiana

26.5

MEDIUM Californian 1

827 35 771

SHORT GRAIN CALIF n 1

36.5

Parboiled L G L/Tx/Ark average

33 727

Broken Second Heads LG

374 19.5

Broken Second Heads Medium Grain Cal

329 25 551

Brewers Broken LG

17,5 385

Brewers Broken California Medium

20

Rice Bran ex mill on truck Louisiana USD /Mt

190

May 2012 2 Sept 2012

24 Oct 2012

10 Nov 2012

Corn USA Future 5.60 $c/bu 8.11 7.54 7.38

Wheat USA future 6.60 8.73 8.71 8.86

Paddy Rice Future 15 15.01 15.06 14.94

Euro /Usd 1.2712

1983 90 95 2000 3 4 5 7 9 2011 12 2013

WORLD MILLED RICE ENDING STOCKS MIO MT

CORN ENDING STOCKS

WHEAT ENDING STOCKS


GAOTRADE CO. LTD


PADDY CHICAGO FUTURE $c /CWT USD/Mt Euro/Mt

1 Sept 2011 18.75 413 301

15 Nov 14.75

4 Feb 2012 13.70 303 231

20 March 14.60 322 243

2 April 14.75 325 250

28 May 15.95 351 276

2 July 14.65 323 256

4 August 15.95 351 283

15 Sept 15.27 336 258

24 Oct 15.06 332 255

10 Nov 14.97 329 259

EUROPEAN MARKET

Basis C & F RTDM in FCL Bulk

Broken Sortexed India USD 430 /Mt

Broken Sortexed DP Pakistan USD 410 /Mt

1/4 less well milled Broken India USD 410 /Mt

Brown Indian Parboiled LG Sortexed USD 520/Mt

Brown Indian Natural LG Sortexed USD 510 /Mt

Egyptian white 100 % Broken “0” USD 440 /Mt

Uruguay Broken Sortexed USD 400 /Mt FOB Vessel in 50 kg pp bags

Paddy sales Milano last week:

New campaign September 2012 -2013 started

Long Japonica (10.500 tonnes)

Long Indica (7.700 tonnes)

Round Japonica (7.500 tonnes)

Medium Japonica (1.100 tonnes)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

US PADDY CHICAGO $cents


GAOTRADE CO. LTD


Total Italian Cumulative sales from 1 Sept 2012: 430’000 Mt

Total Cumulative Imports in the EU New Campaign 2012 -2013:

From Sept 1 -2012

Indica Brown: 123.000 Mt

Milled Indica: 23.500 Mt

100 % Broken Milled rice: 54.000 Mt

Small and large packaging Rice Milled: 12.000 Mt

Main importers shares

Uk 47.000 mt - France 23000 mt -Spain 10000 mt - Italy 9000 mt

Netherland 15000 mt -Portugal 9000 mt - Belgium 6500

Basmati Cumulative imports from 1 Sept 2012 (+21 % on last year)

India 66000 mt

Pakistan 3000 mt

EGYPT Indicative level about 1 USD = 6.00089 Egyptian Pound EGP 12th November 2012

2012-13 EXPORT TENDER RESULTS

Egypt 103,000 tons of rice export licenses awarded to 87 companies but finally only 60 companies will

keep the export licenses, 75,000 tons of rice.

Harvest is nearly complete and the government bought about 5.2 million tons of paddy (3,2 Mio Milled

rice).

Total paddy production for 2012-13 estimated at about 6.8 million tons.(4.1 Mio Mt Milled rice) Low,

compared to 2011-2012 production at 4,5 Mio Mt milled rice

Government needs to procure about 1.0 million tons low quality white rice required for its ration card

program.

Egypt total consumption 2011-12 was around 3.34 million tonnes included the Ratio Card Programme

quantity.

767

0 11 0

331

54 240

0 0 0

IMPORTED RICE BY VARIETIES /000 Mt last year

Brown Indica Cargo Indica + Japonica Milled Indica Milled Japonica Broken all varieties


GAOTRADE CO. LTD


Paddy prices in Egypt are actually around $300/ton for medium grain while milled 5% broken medium

grain rice is shown around $700/ton. Domestic paddy in August 2012 was at USD 300/Mt against USD 540/Mt

one year ago same period.

Export tax of 1,000 Egyptian pounds (about $164)/ton of rice.

WORLD MARKET UP

Recently, China National Grain Center also announced that from November 2012 to March 31, 2013 the floor

price for Japonica Paddy rice in Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning will be RMB 2,800/ton. (USD 444/Mt)

Nigeria was considering to increase its rice import tariff end January 2012 if not delayed at last minute

taking in consideration important losses in local paddy crop

Indonesia under discussion with Vietnam for another large rice contract prompt shipment

Indonesia purchased 120.000 Mt of Indian Lg 15 % to be shipped before 15 December!!!!

Indian Government announce the Minimum Purchase Price for the 2012-13 campaign at Rps 19500/Mt F O T

for Reasonably milled Rice 25-30 pct (higher than last year)

A total of 22 vessels are in Kakinada port /anchorage

10 days Rainfall & cyclone “Nilam” destroyed at least 243,000 hectares of Paddy fields, in Andhra Pradesh

Brazilian paddy move up again at R 39.25 /50 kgs bag and local demand for white rice is strong.

Iraq issue a new tender for 100.000 Mt

Mississippi Barge Traffic at Risk of Shutting Down due to low water level

Mauritius has purchased 6,000 tons of white rice from India at $442/ton in a tender

313

614

432

499 505 500

446 411

440 465 450 460

165 170

230

300 270

330 335 325

310 295

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2007 8 9 10 2011 July 2012 July Aug Sept Oct Nov


GAOTRADE CO. LTD


Low grade milled rice 25 % Trend 2011-12

USA Indicative level about About 1 USD = 0.78650 EUR 1th November 2012

RICE (1 Mt =19, 68 Cwt)

Oct 26 –Nov 1 Period: Business done

Rice Net sales 107,000 MT

Mexico 34,300 MT, Colombia 25,400 MT, Japan 12,000 MT, South Korea 12,000 MT, UK 8,000 MT.

Exports /Loaded 47,800 MT

Japan 13,800 MT, Honduras 7,900 MT, Mexico 6,600 MT, Guatemala 5,800 MT, Costa Rica 3,600 MT.

Wheat Net sales 209,400 MT

South Korea 101,700 MT, Mexico 54,000 MT, Thailand 46,500 MT, the Dominican Republic 11,000 MT,

Jamaica 10,000 MT, Republic of South Africa 6,500 MT

Corn Net sales of 157,600 MT

Mexico 67,900 MT, China 54,500 MT, Japan 30,800 MT, Cuba 25,000 MT, Colombia 9,500 MT, Jamaica 4,800

MT.

Rice Planted acres 000 2010 2011 2012

Total Long Grain 1590 940 1060

Total Medium grain 752 850 646

Calrose Cal Medium only 510 535 490

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2007 8 9 10 Jul-11 Dec-11 Jul-12 31-Aug 15-Sep 4-Oct 24-Oct 10-Nov

VIETNAM WRLG 25 PCT FOB 1/2 grain PAKISTAN WRLG 25 INDIA WRLG 25


GAOTRADE CO. LTD


PAKISTAN Indicative level about PKR/USD 94.8002 PKR 12th November 2012

1 - July 2012 to 5 November 2012

Rice qualities Totals Mt

Last year July

September export

Mt

Total Basmati 212.000 278.000

Total non Basmati

400.000

Total Export Registered Contract all

rice 2012-13 Campaign 612.000 624.000

FORECAST NEW CROP 2012 -2013

Pakistan’s paddy projection expected less by 1.4 million tonnes to 9.4 million tonnes.

This translates into 6.27 million tonnes of milled rice.

At the end of September Rice growers in upper Sindh were in a difficult situation because late

monsoon rain caused serious damage to the crop and its nurseries.

Sindh’s rice production is around 2.6 to 2.7 million tons on an average. Nurseries of rice are prepared in

May in Sindh But it was badly hit due to unavailability of water. Sowing started late June or mid July and in

upper Sindh areas located on the right bank of the River Indus, it was delayed by one and a half month.

“Rains have been continuing since 15 September and problem is that water cannot easily be drained out

by farmers “the crop can only be saved in the area where farmers are able to drain out rainwater from paddy

fields. Farmers estimate that 30% of the Sindh rice crop will be damaged.

THAILAND Indicative level about 1 USD = 30.3818 THB Thai Baht 12th November 2012

THAILAND EXPORT FIGURES /000 Mt Milled 2011/2012

0

20

40

60

80

100

2000 3 6 10 2012

60

75

100

77

60

USA MILLED RICE EXPORT LONG GRAIN MIO CWT MEDIUM GRAIN END YEAR STOCKS


GAOTRADE CO. LTD


Total Export Jan –31 Sept - 2011 was 8.540.000 Mt (Including Fragrant)

Last week (excl. Fragrant) 123.000Mt sold

Total Exports 1st January up to Nov 5, 2012

Total export 5 Nov 2012: 4.100,000 Mt (White and Parboiled)

And 5.060.000 Mt (White + Parboiled + Fragrant) down 44 % from previous year

2012-2013 Paddy Pledge Programme received from 1 October: 760.000 mt

2012/13 PADDY PLEDGING PROGRAM:

Government is running out of space to store the grain it buys, with stocks already at a record high as the

harvest of the main crop gets into full swing, farmers and industry officials said last week. The Thai Government

is currently holding total intervention stocks of around 15 million metric tons; of which 1-2 million metric tons

are old-crop rice. The 2011/12 Paddy Pledging Program pledged 21.5 million metric tons of paddy (14.2 million

metric tons milled equivalent); of which 7.0 million metric tons are main-crop paddy (4.6 million metric tons

milled ) - and 14.5 million metric tons are off-season crop paddy (9.6 million metric tons milled).

The program is expected to cost $13 billion and the government has pledged a target range of 26.0

million metric tons of paddy (17 million metric tons milled equivalent). This accounts for approximately 80% of

total rice production. The program will be effective from October 1, 2012 to September 30, 2013. The

intervention prices remain unchanged at 13,800 - 15,000 baht/tons ($444 – $482/MT) for white rice paddy, and

18,000 – 20,000 baht/ton ($579 – $643/MT) for fragrant rice paddy. No limit restrictions were imposed on the

pledged amount.

Thailand Economy Figures:

Budget Expenditures $ 74.99 billion (2011 est.)

Budget revenues $ 40.90 billion (2010)

Debt - external $ 115.60 billion (2011 est.)

Thailand Export Rice 000 Mt

2008 10.000

2009 8.570

2010 9.050

2011 10.500

Our 2012 Forecast 5.800

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

TOTAL EXPORT / MONTH MT THAILAND 2011-2012


GAOTRADE CO. LTD


Expected quantity in Stock end of

October 2012 MT Milled

Share in %

White milled & broken

New & old crop 6.500.000

42

Fragrant Milled Home Mali

New and old crop 7.500.000

48

Fragrant Milled standard

New & old Crop 1.000.000

6

Glutinous Milled N & O Crop 450.000 3

Total Milled N & O Crop 15.500.000 100 %

Old crop ( included in Total ) 2.000.000

INDIA Indicative level about 1 USD = 54.3970 INR Indian Rupee 12th November 2012

Based on the latest trade reports, the 2011/12 non Basmati and Basmati rice total export estimate to 10.4

million tons includes 7 million tons non-Basmati and 3 million tons Basmati rice.

2012/13 rice paddy production forecasted at 99 million tons on continued favorable weather conditions.

The kharif (fall-harvested) rice crop is progressing well under adequate soil moisture and weather conditions in

most rice growing states. Most southern states received heavy rains in recent weeks.

Delayed planting is likely to result in a 2- to 3-weeks delay in the harvest of kharif rice in most rice

growing states. Harvesting commenced in the northern states (Punjab/Haryana) in the second week of October

and will start the first week of November in other states, to continue through December.

In Andhra Pradesh 250.000 Ha of paddy crop get lost under torrential heavy rain and cyclone conditions

during firs 10 days November 2012

India’s 2012/13 crop forecast lowered 3.0 million tons basis milled due to a delayed, deficient, and

poorly distributed monsoon rainfall that has reduced area and yield potential for growers dependent on the

seasonal rains. The forecasted crop is 6 per cent below the year earlier record.

Expected production 98.0 million tons milled rice in 2012-13. The government has set a target of procuring 40

million tonnes (MT) of the staple in 2012-13 marketing season (October- September).

Punjab and Haryana basmati and Pusa crop seem to be less than last year due to lack of water

availability. The governments of India and Iran continue to negotiate on opportunities for exports of Indian

0

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100

150

200

250 198 208 217 230 234 218 244 250

95 102 98

INDIA TOTAL PRODUCTION GRAINS Million Mt WHEAT PADDY


GAOTRADE CO. LTD


wheat from government stocks to Iran against the rupee payment for export sales of Iranian petroleum to India.

However, there has not yet been agreement between the two countries.

FCI Andhra Pradesh issued purchase prices starting 1 October 2012

WR MEDIUM milled 25 -30 pct broken: Rps 19000/Mt free on truck

WR LONG GRAIN IR 64 with 25-30 % broken: Rps 19500 rps/Mt free on truck

So far, the total Indian rice acreage is down by 5% at 36.764 Mio hectares, which may keep the

output lower than last year. Kharif is the main season for rice crop, which is typically sown in June-July and

harvested in November-December. About 84 per cent of the country’s rice is grown during this season.

Crop Ha seeded 2012 -13 Normal average Ha

Rice 36,765,000 36,126,000

Coarse Grain 17,593,000 17,615,000

Pulses 10,118,000 10,923,000

1st September: Wheat stockpiles increased to 47.5 million tons from 35.9 million tons a year earlier.

Rice inventory was 28.5 million tons, compared with 25.3 million tons /year earlier.

SEASON RAINFALL from 1 June to 10 September 2012 -Indian Meteo-Service

Regions June-Sept all (mm) Normal (mm) Share of total crop

Punjab 196 422 10.86 %

Haryana 241 407 3.61 %

Uttar Pradesh 595 737 12.00 %

Bihar 604 842 5.34 %

W Bengal 786 942 15.80 %

Orissa 962 972 7.31 %

Andra Pradesh 513 446 12.8 %

Karnakata 2893 2846 3.70 %

Tamil Nadu 175 214 7.00 %

Chhattisgarh 1042 982 5.41 %

LOADING ACTIVITY Indian Port 2012

KAKINADA PORT : 29 vessels are under loading RICE AND CORN

17 vessels to load WHITE RICE & Broken

8 vessels to load PB Srtx

4 vessels to load MAIZE

KANDLA : 3 vessels under load white low grade + 2 vessels loading Basmati

Aromatic Rice Local Market India

Buying by rice mills coupled with low arrivals has helped aromatic paddy varieties fetch better rates this year.

Estimates that the produce will be less this year led to frantic buying by mills, as they don’t have enough carry-

forward stocks of basmati. According to the Rice Exporters’ Association, this year basmati rice production is

estimated to drop by around 10% due to decline in acreage.

Pure Basmati Paddy arrival in N Delhi market traded 50 % higher than last year same period!!!!

Pusa 1121 paddy traded at same level of last year.


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Varieties Price Free on truck New Delhi market

Pusa-1121 (steam) Rs 5600

Pusa-1121 (PB sela) Rs 4500

Basmati Pure Milled (raw) Expected at Rs 6000 ( Usd 1120 )

Duplicated basmati Rs 4600

Pusa Basmati white Rs 5500

Brokens of Pusa-1121, Rs 2750

Dubar broken R 2700

Mongra broken Rs 2250

PR-14 (steam) Rs 2800

Sharbati (steam) from Rs 3900 to 3700

Sharbati PB Sela RS 3670 down 3300

Sharbati (white) from Rs 3400 to 3100

Permal PB (sela) Rs 2200 down 100

Permal Milled (raw) Rs 2100

PR-11 (PB sela) Rs 2,450

PR-11 (Raw White ) from Rs 2,550 to 2450 ( $ 462 )

YEAR Rice PRODUCTION Mio Mt Population Mio Mt/capita

1950 20.58 350 ............... 0.0588

2001 93.08 1.015............... 0.0917

2012 103.00 1.190 ................ 0.0865

VIETNAM Indicative level about 1 USD = 20,534.10 VND Vietnamese Dong 12th November 20112

Vietnam Export Mt Rice

Trend 000 MT

2008 4690

2009 5950

2010 6730

2011 7000

2012 Forecast 7000

Vietnam’s total rice exports 1st January to 5 November 2012: 6.200.000 tons Milled basis

In HCM port 230,000 tons under load this week.

Prices may increase further in the first quarter next year if the harvest of the winter-spring rice crop is

delayed beyond February. According to the VFA, ending stocks of rice this year is expected to be around

800,000 tons, the lowest in over 10 years.

Philippines 175.000 MT, under loading (5% and 25% broken rice).

Malaysia contract under loading

New contract with Indonesia under negotiations

Indonesia 300.000 Mt contract under load

Rice exports likely to reach 7.5 million tons this year, taking into account more than 1 million tons to be

shipped throughout December under signed contracts, according to the Vietnam Food Association

Depending on new contracts signed in November, the country’s rice export volume can even hit 7.7

million tons, the highest figure over the past 20 years.


GAOTRADE CO. LTD


Monday 22 October, traders in An Giang and Vinh Long Provinces paid VND5,800/kg for normal rice

variety and VND6,500/kg for the fragrant variety.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, this year, the country’s total rice area

reaches 7.75 million ha, a 1.2% rise against 2011. Rice paddy output to hit 43 Mio MT in 2012-13. Vietnam’s

rice output is expected to surpass 43 million Mt in 2012-13, an increase of 1 million tons or 2.6% over the

previous year.

Animal feed local market under pressure

Wheat imports for 2012 estimated at 2.6 million tons. The use of feed wheat for the local animal feed industry

about 1.1 million tons.

The imported corn was in 2012: 1.25 million tons, of which Indian corn accounted for + than 77% of the total.

R I C E E X P O R T S F R O M V I E T N A M - L O A D I N G A C T I V I T Y

Ho Chi Minh Port: only 230.000 Mt under load

7 vessels to Malaysia

9 vessels to Philippines

1 vessel WR LG 5 % to H Hong 29000 Mt

1 vessel to South Africa (32 000 Mt PB???)

2 Vessels to Indonesia (42.000 Mt)

1 vessel Japan (6000 Mt)

1 Vessel Thailand (32000 Mt)

1 Vessel to China (6000 Mt)

MYANMAR Indicative level About 1USD = 833.214 MMK Myanmar Kyat 12th November 2012

2011/2012, Burma’s rice paddy production increased 2.7% to16.9 million metric tons (MMT) and official

exports will decrease 23% to 0.6 MMT milled rice.

Estimated 12 months non official export to China via border - by daily- trucks at 500.000 Mt.

Average rice prices in Local Burma Market have dropped from last year as rice from the new harvest has

started entering the market and also due to a reduction of unofficial exports to China.

Local rice millers say that prices of high quality rice varieties have declined to about $760/ton down from $800

/ton. Low quality rice prices have declined to $400 /ton. Millers are declining prices in order to sell rice from the

old harvest to make space for the arrival of rice from the new harvest.

INDONESIA

Indicative level about 9,574.75 IDR Indonesian Rupiah – 12th November 2012

130.000 Mt of Indian WR LG Rice 15 % finalized in tender by Bulog for prompt shipment.

300-400 000 Mt Contract was signed end September with Vietnam but another large contract was under

discussion in HCMC during last week.

Paddy rice production 2012-13 is expected to increase to 43.4 million tons, basis milled this year, up 4.9% on

last year, according to the country’s Statistics

The Indonesian National Statistics Agency (BPS) reported that the average price of wet paddy is slightly

increasing from Rp. 3,726/kg ($392/MT) in April 2012 to actual Rp. 3,835/kg ($404/MT).

Indonesia is targeting to minimize total rice imports to 770,000 tons, from last year’s imports of around 1.8

million tons.


GAOTRADE CO. LTD


Indonesia is estimated to produce 36.5 million tons of milled rice in 2011-12, up from a previous

estimate. Consumption is estimated to be rising from 39 million tons in 2010-11, to 39.7 million tons in

2011-12. Indonesia has extended a (MoU) with Vietnam covering 1.5 million tons of rice/year 2013-2017

The head of Indonesia’s rice-buying agency Bulog said the agency has 2.2 million tons of rice in Bulog

stockpiles. Stocks will move down to 1.1-1.5 by year-end.

BULOG distributed a total of 3.15MMT of Raskin rice to 17.5 million poor families. Each family

received 15 kg of rice/month at the price of Rp. 1,600 /kg. As of early July 2012, BULOG has distributed a total

of 1.7 MMT of rice under this Raskin program.

PHILIPPINES Indicative level about 1 USD = 40.5011 PHP Philippine Peso – 12th November 2012

The January-June 2012 paddy production was 7.89 million MT, 4.2% higher than last year's level of 7.58

million MT. Harvested area was recorded at 2.04 million hectares, 2.1% above last year's record of 1.99 million

hectares. Yield per hectare was up by 2% or from 3.80 MT in 2011 to 3.88 MT this year.

The Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS) has projected that paddy production for the second half of

2012 is forecast at 9.92 million MT, 8.9 % higher than last year’s level of 9.11 million MT. Philippine Stock

Rice end September 2012: Total rice stocks: 1.2 million tons, down almost 34 % from last year same period.

Manila price bulletin: Milled rice high quality wholesale price Pesos/kg

July 33,19 + 3,4 % on last year

August 35,00 + 10 % on last month

Sept 40,00 +14 % o last month

Nov 5 43,00 + 7.5 % on Sept

Milled Rice well milled quality

August 30,43 + 4 % on last year

Set 32,.00 + 6 %

Oct –Nov 5 35,00 + 9 %

Paddy ex farm gate 2011-12 Crop average:

May 16,67/kg

June 17,00/kg + 7,6 % on last year

Sept 16,46 /Kg

Oct 24 16.07 /Kg

SOUTH & CENTRAL AMERICA Production Milled Rice Trend South & Central America (x 000 MT)

2010/11 2011/2012 2012/13 Forecast

Argentina 1,118 1,008

Brazil 9,300 7,888 7,320

Colombia 1,323 1,430 1,591

Cuba 295 338 338

Dominican Republic 562 573 573

Ecuador 900 624 600

Guyana 361 402 410

Mexico 146 125 153

Peru 1,939 1,666 2,001

Uruguay 1,150 931 840

Venezuela 358 380 385


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BRAZIL Indicative level about 1 USD = 2.03730 BRL Brazilian Real 12th November 2012

Brazil’s 2012/13 production forecast lowered by 850,000 tons to 7.3 million based on a much lower

area estimate. At 2.4 million hectares, Brazil’s rice area is 350,000 hectares below a year earlier and the lowest

in more than a half a century.

000 MT 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 FORCAST

Wheat production 5’900 5’800 6’000

Corn production 57’000 62’000 68’000

Rice milled production 9’300 7’800 7’300

Rice export 1’300 900 700

TIPO 1 Brazil Paddy Pelotas ex farm gate: From (RS) 50 kg 28,95 R/50Kg 1st week August

And 24,00 Rs last year campaign was UP to Rs 39.95/50 kgs (USD 397/Mt) last week

50 % more than 12 months ago

White rice Sao Paolo Type 1 /30 kg sold at USD 993/Mt (wholesale)

48 % more than 12 months ago

Brazil’s paddy rice production in 2012 reached 11.6 million tons, down almost 15% from about 13.6 million tons

in 2011, mainly because of lower acreage due to high production costs (FAO).

Production of soybean and wheat are also expected to decline 12% and 14% respectively this year, while maize

production is expected to surge about 74% to 38.5 million tons, due to high prices of maize this season.

Brazil will export about 700,000 tons in 2012-13, down nearly 50% from the previous year, as ending stocks of

rice this year are low.

URUGUAY Indicative level about 1 USD = 19.1899 UYU Uruguayan Peso 12th November 2012

Rice production trend

Improvement in rainfall in Uruguay will allow area under rice cultivation to reach about 182,000 hectares

this year, about 1.6% higher than an earlier estimate by Uruguay's Department of Agriculture Statistics of about

179,000 hectares, but down about 7% from the record 196,000 ha achieved in 2010-11.

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Uruguay is estimated to produce about 1.45 million tons of paddy rice this year, down about 9% from the

1.6 million tons of paddy produced in 2010-11. Water shortage and high production and irrigation costs are the

main reasons for the decline in rice acreage over the last few years.

Production cost

$ Mt

Prod Cost

$ /50 kg

Gross income

$ /50 kg

2003 154.9 7.74 9.05

2004 144 7.2 7.05

2005 153 7.65 7.76

2007 204 10.5 15.3

2009 235 11.75 12.04

2010 228 11.04 12.50

2011-12 274 13.07 12.20

Total Exports 2011-12: 900.000 Mt Milled Rice

ARGENTINA Indicative level about 1 USD = 4.71269 ARS Argentine Peso – 12th November 2012

Argentina moved more than 120.000 mt Milled rice high quality to Brazil during las 4 months

Spring rice planting is underway September-November in the southern hemisphere nation.

Rice Production for 2011/12 is estimated somewhat lower at 1.47 million tons (PADDY) as average

yields in the northern part of the country are a little bit worse than expected

Rice Production Trend and Forecast

Year Htrs Paddy Mt Milled Mt

2009-2010 215,000 Htrs 1,459,000 Mt 875.000 Mt

2010 -2011 258,000 Htrs 1,751.000 Mt 1.051.000 Mt

2011-2012 216,800 Htss 1,470.000 Mt 873.000 Mt

2012-2013 200,000 Htrs 1.350.000 Mt 800.000 Mt

VENEZUELA Indicative Level around 1 USD = 4.28970 Venezuelan Bolivar Fuerte VEF 12th November 20112

According to Fedeagro, rough rice production for 2012/13 is estimated at 567,000 MT as producers plan

to boost rice planting because of more favorable Government policies to support grain crops.

Ministry of Food and Corporation says paddy rice imports could reach around 625,000 tons (about

420,000 tons, basis milled) this year, in the next campaign. A total of 429,000 tons of paddy rice was imported

up to end May 2012. Venezuela imports most of its rice from Argentina, Ecuador, Guyana, USA.

High level of debts slows down rice growth and lack of materials and of financing have been an obstacle.

The production of paddy rice during 2011-12 was 570, 000 Mt, more or less the same as last year.

Actually, production reaches 53% of the national need. Consumption in 2010/11 reached 644,000 MT of milled

rice. Consumption is estimated to be 650,000 MT in 2011/12 supported by continued imports by the government,

and grow slightly with population to 655,000 in 2012/13.

http://www.google.it/imgres?imgurl=http://www.enchantedlearning.com/southamerica/venezuela/flag/Flagbig.GIF&imgrefurl=http://www.enchantedlearning.com/southamerica/venezuela/flag/&h=313&w=451&sz=10&tbnid=PBoE1utofJquPM:&tbnh=83&tbnw=120&prev=/search?q=venezuela+flag&tbm=isch&tbo=u&zoom=1&q=venezuela+flag&usg=__tqDXcZCMociRhBdsGLSu7aw6wO8=&docid=4zGJEYQBUfu-2M&hl=en&sa=X&ei=ewIQUO6WNc3CtAamxoGwDg&ved=0CGMQ9QEwAg&dur=920


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COLOMBIA Indicative level about 1 USD = 1,815.00 COP Colombian Peso 12th November 2012

In 2011/2012, Colombian rice area is expected to increase by 12% to 470,000 hectares, and paddy rice

production is expected to increase by 157,000 tons to 2.19 million tons. The forecast for 2012/2013 is for rice

production to increase to 2.2 million tons of paddy rice, a 5% increase, due to return to a higher productivity.

The Colombian duty on rice imports from countries outside the Andean Community is 80%. It is

estimated that rice stocks at the end 2012 will be just 30,000 tons of milled rice lower than previous years.

Smuggling paddy trough the borders estimated 150.-200.000 Mt last year.

PERU Indicative level about 1 USD = 2.54418 PEN Peruvian Nuevo Sol 12th November 2012

Milled Rice 000 Mt 2010 2011 2012 Forecast

Production 2080 2000 1650

Consumption 2000 2100 2000

End stocks 170 65 25

Total Imports 91 200 250

Production: Rice production for 2012 is forecast to decrease 14% to 1.68 MMT (milled basis).

Harvested area for 2012 is estimated at 350,000 hectares. Expected 220.000 Mt Import in 2012:

Milled Production trend Year End Stocks

2009-10 1,840,000 Mt 170,000 Mt

2010-11 1,950.000 Mt 65,000 Mt

2011-12 1,670,000 Mt 30.000 Mt

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Imports 2012 Mt milled rice

January 27’000

February 10’000

March 22’000

April 16’000

May 14’000

June 22’000

July 17’000

August 24’000

September 28’000

GUAYANA

Indicative level around 1 USD = 200.000 Guayanese Dollar GYD

Rice production increased 11% last year to reach its highest ever level of 401,000 tonnes

Last year, Guyana and Venezuela signed a US$54 million agreement for the supply of rice. That deal also

extended and revised three previous contracts. More than 160, 000 tonnes of the Guyana‘s rice exports went to

the neighbouring country.

000 Mt Paddy

Production

000 Milled Rice Export Milled

000 Mt

2004 510 325 243

2005 420 270 180

2006 472 307 200

2007 450 295 270

2009 553 358 260

2010 556 360 330

2012 400

CHINA

Indicative level about 1 USD = 6.27678 CNY Chinese Yuan Renminbi – 12th November 2012

China's rice imports surge 256% Jan-Oct 2012 compared to last year same period

China imported 1.64 million tons of rice in the first ten months of 2012, an on-year surge of 256%, sources

reported, citing statistics from General Administration of Customs.

China Grain and Feed , forecasted 2012/13 milled rice production unchanged at 143 million tons, up from

140 million tons last year, ” China report indicates that more farmers have been planting corn over soybeans,

Wheat production will reach 118 million tons in 2012/13,same as last year.


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PADDY TREND 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13

Yuan /Mt Yuan /Mt Yuan /Mt

INDICA PADDY 1800 2100 2650

JAPONICA PADDY 2300 2700 3000

The acreage for growing grain crops is expected to expand by 733,000 hectares to 111 million hectares

this year.

Milled Rice imports in to China from January to end September 2012 represented over 1.8 million tons,

China Paddy Futures

Indica Early Crop NY/MT $ /Mt

2006 1550 187

2008 1640 234

2011 2569 390

2012 Nov 2652 420

More and more Chinese farmers are increasing their control on production yield and water management

Rice System Irrigation 2011-12 Area In Ha Paddy

Irrigated 30.780.000

Rain fed 1.650.000

Mix System 670.000

Total Area Ha 33.100.000

Paddy EARLY CROP SINGLE CROP LATE CROP

Yield Mt /ha 5.7 Mt/ha 7.1 Mt/ha 5.57Mt/ha

% on total 26 46 28

CHINESE GRAIN EXPERTS said in Nov 2012

There could be a small fall in overall grain production this year to 570 m tons from the 571.2m tons /year

earlier, according to Sinograin, but this is still substantially up on the 546.5m tons produced a year earlier. Total

imports would hit 62.5m tons, compared with 58.5m tons and 61.35m tons in the 2 previous years.

On maize, where China is seen as a potential tipping point in the market, expert forecast imports of 5m

tons, compared with 3.5m tons a year earlier “Prices in China have been at their highest ever levels so farmers

are enthusiastic,” The China National Grain and Oils Information Centre has put Chinese maize imports in

2012/13 at 6m tons, the USDA at 7m tons, while private analysts have viewed them into the double figures.

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Soyabean is less attractive to farmers in terms of profits, expert put local production in 2012/13 at 14m

tons from 14.5m tons a year earlier and 15.1m tons before that. This would see imports reach 57.5m tons from

55m tons and 52.35m tons in the 2 earlier years.

RUSSIA Indicative level about 1 USD = 31.0736 Russian Rouble RUB 12th November 2012

Farmers in Krasnodar valley harvested 5.3 MMT, with the average yield of 4.0 MT/ha. Russia estimates

the country’s rice production to increase to 730,000 tons in 2013, up about 9%. Exports in 2012: 200,000 tons

Futures EXW Rice Groats G1 September 16,150

Futures EXW Rice Groats T1 November 17.730

AFRICA

WEST AFRICA RICE SUPPLY /DEMAND

Burkina Faso, Chad, Ivory Coast, Gambia, Guinea Bissau, Guinea Conakry, Mali,

Mauritania, Niger, Senegal, Togo, Nigeria

ALL AFRICA UNBALANCED AGRI-TRADE

2009 Figures Exports MIO USD Imports MIO USD Balance

Cereals 975 10500 - 9525

Oil& Fat 82 409 - 327

Oil seed 952 2700 - 682

Dairy 229 2300 - 1389

Meat 334 1300 - 966

Sugar 1364 1850 - 486

Veg & Fruit 4599 1800 + 2313

Coffee& Cocoa 5140 842 + 4298

Spices 170 117 + 53

Total 17550 24300 - 6800

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AFRICA ALL CEREAL UTILIZATION /CAPITA KG/YEAR

FREIGHT CONTAINER TREND

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195

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313

276

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On Nov. 2, the China Containerized Freight issued by Shanghai Shipping Exchange (SSE) slid by 0.6% to

1,159.62 points; while the SCFI went up by 1.7% to 1,251.20 points. The SCFI showed that the freight rate

(covering seaborne surcharges) of service from Shanghai to base ports of Europe significantly rose by 13.4% to

$1,491/TEU.

CHINA's Cosco Pacific's Athens-area Piraeus Container Terminal (PCT) handled 1.6 million TEU in the year to

end-September, 200,000 TEU, surpassing the 1.4 million TEU annual target and representing a 96 per cent year-

on-year increase.

FROM THE PRESS

Rain and snow in China's north have driven farm produce prices slightly up in 36 large and

medium-sized cities, the Ministry of Commerce (MOC) said Tuesday. In the week ending Nov. 4, the wholesale

price of 18 types of vegetables climbed 0.7% from a week earlier, according to the ministry.

Prices of cucumbers, potatoes and tomatoes jumped 8%, 6.8% and 7%, respectively. Meanwhile, the

price of eggs dropped 0.4%, down for the 4th

consecutive week. The retail price of grain and cooking oil edged

up slightly, with prices of rice, colza oil and peanut oil up 0.2%, 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively.

The wholesale price of pork dropped 0.1% week-on-week, while prices of mutton and beef went up

slightly by both rising 0.7%. The wholesale prices of eight kinds of aquatic products declined 0.2% from a week

ago. Food prices account for about 30% of the weighting in the nation's calculation of the consumer price index

(CPI), the key gauge of inflation.

http://english.mofcom.gov.cn/


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The CPI rose 1.9% year-on-year in September, easing from 2 in August, according to the

country's statistics authority.

Strong economic numbers

Retail sales were up 14.5% for the month from a year earlier, compared to Reuters’ forecast for a 14%

rise, and the previous month’s 14.2% increase.

RICE PRODUCTION PERFORMANCE

Country Average farm size (ha) Average yield (t/ha)

Australia 591 8.8

USA 146.5 7.4

Japan 1.75 to < 12 6.7

South Korea 6.51

China < 0.5 6.3

Vietnam 4.52

India < 1 3.5

Thailand <2 3.0

RICE AND TOTAL WATER USE PER COUNTRIES PER MT PADDY

Total Use of Water by Countries m 3 water /Mt paddy Rice Produced

China 785

India 1400

Indonesia 927

Bangladesh 1120

Vietnam 700

Thailand 1250

Myanmar 1100

Japan 755

Brazil 1270

USA 650

Pakistan 1600

AGRICULTURE PRODUCTION OF USABLE PROTEIN/UNIT LAND

Gram Protein /sqm POUND protein/ACRE

SOYBEAN 29 263

RICE 25 224

MAIZE 7.7 68

WHEAT 8.4 75 VEGETABLES 11 94

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