infrastructure for australia’s digital economy · government announces establishment of nbnco ....
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Rod Tucker University of Melbourne
The story of Australia’s National Broadband Network
Infrastructure for Australia’s Digital Economy:
Politics confront Technology
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Australia’s National Broadband Network • April 2009: Announced by Federal Government
• 93% fibre to the premises (FTTP)
• Investment of AU $43 billion
• The "single biggest infrastructure decision in Australia's history”
• September 2013: New Government resets key parameters
• FTTP largely replaced by fibre to the node (FTTN)
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Source: NBNCo
Original Technology Footprints 93% 4% 3%
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Exchange FTTP
Customers
Point of Interconnect
NBN Backhaul
Competitive Backhaul
Wireless Customers
Satellite Customers
Retail Service Provider
NBN Monopoly Wholesale Network
(L2)
Aggregator
Retail Service Provider NBN Access
Network Competitive
Wholesale Network (L2/3)
NBN Structure
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Splitter
Passive Optical Network (PON)
Exchange
Fibre
Fibre to the Premises
(FTTP)
Wireline Technologies
Fibre to the Building (FTTB) Copper
Fibre
Copper
ADSL
Hybrid Fibre Coax (HFC)
Coaxial Cable
RF Amplifier
Existing
Telstra Ducts (~ AU$ 11 billion)
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Pricing Principles • Uniform Pricing
– Uniform wholesale pricing across Australia irrespective of the delivery technology and location
– Price depends only on product-specific bitrate
• Avoidance of Cherry Picking – Protections against cherry picking for low cost / high revenue regions – Business plan dependent on NBNCo monopoly
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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Proposal for public-private-partnership to establish an NBN fails Federal Election - Change Government
Government-appointed Panel recommends FTTP-based network Government announces establishment of NBNCo
Finalization of agreement to use Telstra ducts and pits NBNCo announces downward revision of rollout rates
Federal Election - Change of Government Strategic Review Cost/Benefit Review Public Policy Review
Federal Election - NBN a major issue in election
Multi-Technology Mix (MTM)
Labor Coalition
FTTP rollout commences
Seven Years of Flux
Coalition champions replacing FTTP by FTTN
Government
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Issues in the Political Debate • Overall project cost
– Cost-benefit analysis
• Choice of technology
• Speed of rollout
• Monopoly versus facilities-based competition
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Cost • AU $43 billion over 8 years (~ AU $5.5 billion per year)
~ AU$ 300 per person per year
• Some commentary: – a “shockingly misconceived, wasteful exercise in public policy” – a “dangerous delusion”, cost/benefit analysis required – a “brilliant initiative that will transform Australia”
• Annual spend on roads: AU $16 billion
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Cost
Source: www.nicholsoncartoons.com.au
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Choice of Technology • Many ill-informed opinions in the press, e.g.:
– Replace FTTP by “mobile technologies and existing fibre”
• Strong political statements, e.g.: – a “dangerous delusion” – a “white elephant on a massive scale”
• Dearth of informed technical debate
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Technologies
Reprinted with permission from Sean Leahy
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Technologies
Source: Cathy Wilcox. Reproduced with Permission
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Speed of Construction • Delays caused by factors such as:
– Difficulties in mobilizing a large workforce
– Delays in finalizing agreements with Telstra
– Asbestos in Telstra pits
• Much political debate about these delays and reports of “cost blowouts”
• Labor has since admitted it underestimated the difficulties in ramping up the project
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The Debate around User Demand
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
1000000
10000000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
*
Year
ADSL
Dial-up Modems
HFC
GPON
Dow
nloa
d Ra
te (b
/s)
10 k
100 k
1 M
10 M
100 M
1 G
10 G
60 % p.a. growth
xGPON * VDSL (FTTN)
> 20M
G.fast
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Delays
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Prem
ises
Pas
sed
('000
s)
Premises passed by fibre (Plan)
Premises passed by fibre (Actual)
Plan delayed by one year
Premises passed by fibre (plan)
Plan delayed by one year
Premises passed by fibre (actual)
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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Proposal for public-private-partnership to establish an NBN fails Federal Election - Change Government
Government-appointed Panel recommends FTTP-based network Government announces establishment of NBNCo
Federal Election - Change of Government Strategic Review Cost/Benefit Review Public Policy Review
Federal Election - NBN a major issue in election
Multi-Technology Mix (MTM)
FTTP rollout commences
Due this month
Seven Years of Flux Labor
Coalition
Finalization of agreement to use Telstra ducts and pits NBNCo announces downward revision of rollout rates Coalition champions replacing FTTP by FTTN
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2013 Election and Beyond
Strategic review (December 2013):
Multi-Technology Mix:
FTTP: 20-26% FTTN/dp/B: to 44-50% HFC: ~ 30%
> 98% of footprint to achieve > 25 Mbps by end of 2020
Coverage
Total Cost
Coverage
Total Cost
"Fast, Affordable, Sooner"
Finished: 2021 2019
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Splitter Passive Optical Network (PON)
Powered Node
Fibre to the Distribution Point
(FTTdp)
Hybrid Fibre Coax (HFC)
Coaxial Cable
RF Amplifier
Exchange
Fibre
Fibre to the Building (FTTB)
Fibre to the Node (FTTN) Copper
Distribution Point
~ 400 m
~ 50 m
Fibre to the Premises (FTTP)
VDSL2 (Vectoring)
VDSL2 G.fast
Multi-Technology Mix
"Faster, Sooner, Cheaper"
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Multi-Technology Mix
Reprinted with permission from David Pope
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Powered Node Exchange
Fibre
Fibre to the Node (FTTN)
Fibre on Demand
Copper
Fibre (on demand)
Copper
If a user needs more bandwidth
– Fibre installed on user-pays basis
– Cost depends on distance to node etc.
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Worldwide FTTP Developments • FTTP rollouts in more than 100 countries
• Most of Scandinavia, the Netherlands, and many of the Arab oil states have FTTP penetration levels of more than 50%
• In developed economies FTTP is predicted, over the next 5 years, grow to around 30% - 50% of the population (Budde)
• Google: Offering 1 Gb/s to cities such as Kansas City and Austin
• AT&T: Tentative plans for 1-Gb/s to ~ 100 cities in 21 metro areas
• By the end of 2014 China aims to have 100 million households connected to fibre
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Final Words
• Telecommunications is essential infrastructure - c.f. roads, rail, water, electricity, sewer systems
• Engineers need to become more involved in political debate - Counteract technical confusion and misinformation
• FTTP will eventually come to Australia - But by a circuitous route