finalization of risknis package b:

www.risk-technologies.com ; www.stw.de

Collaboration with Petroleum Industry of Serbia, phase I I Saradnja sa Naftnom industrijom Srbije, faza I I

Finalization of RiskNIS Package B:

Summary of achievements including analysis of savings in investment in

maintenance and optimized inspection planning

June 2, 2010Novi Sad / Belgrade

STEINBEIS ADVANCED RISK TECHNOLOGIES 2

All main goals achieved

All indicators* well over 100%: More components (RNS, RGE)

More analyses (Level 3 for all!)

More education

New results: NPV-based analysis of savings

Analysis of alternative inspection plans

Upgraded tool (Russian, new modules, new interface …)

Summary: RNP – whole FCC plant

(scope as planned, more analyses, see the dashboard)

RNS – uljara (not in the initial plan)

RGE – whole plant (not in the initial plan)

*NOTE: Some results yet to be uploaded – more available!

Summary of main achievements


Status in the overall project

?

? May 2010


List of main results so far (A + B) RBI

Management system: 5 major units; available: 1 folder with detailed results, 1 summary report

API unit-based analysis: 65 units; available: 2 folders with detailed results, 1 summary report

API : over 2,500 components overall, out of which ca. 200 “bad actors”, out of which ca. 20% related to the investment plan; available: 1 summary report

RCM/RCFA

50+ units x “10 BA” = 200 BA approx. ; available: 1 folder with detailed results, 1 summary report

Detailed analysis for approx. 200 components (prioritization in FCC!) ; reports available on-line

HSE

Draft basic Seveso report RNP; available: 1 folder with detailed results, 1 summary report

5 HAZOPs in FCC RNP; available: 1 folder with detailed results, reports available on-line

2 Scenarios for QRA defined, QRA; available: 1 folder with detailed results, 1 summary report

Seveso reports + HAZOPS for Platforming RNS and RGE, reports available on-line

Feasibility Study 37 questionnaires (the “1,000 RiskNIS

questions”); available: 6 folders with detailed results, 1 summary report

Training and education Courses + certifications RBI,

RCM/RCFA and HSE; available: 3 folders with full course materials (text, CD, transparencies)

Training abroad Combined with ESPRiT

Other additional work, not planned … but done WITH A GOOD REASON! available: in the reports above

Extended feasibility study 10 bad actors >> linking RBI with

RCM/RCFA, also linking to HSE linking to the investment plan >>

customer’s savings oriented service! analysis and updating of the QA

procedures Preparation for the extension

“Occupational Safety (OSHA/HSSE)” Training & education – 1 RBI, 1 RCM

and 2 HSE course more than planned SOFTWARE ALSO IN RUSSIAN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS - INVESTMENT

IN INSPECTION AND MAINTENANCE


Overview of economic indicators

Cash flow in a corporation

Flow of working capital

Production costs

Maintenance costs

Capitalized cost

Maintenance cost – operational

expenditure or capital expenditure

Net present value

S-Factor

Engineering aspects


Optimize maintenance plan to obtain maximum capital value at any time of the plant life (or given time horizon)

Used for maintenance of equipment with the degradation over time damage mechanisms

S-Factor

Risk before (probability x consequences)

Risk after (probability x consequences)

Estimated costs of action / consequence of action

Approach


Sample results: SAVE IN SAFETY & COMPLIANCE

Optimisani plan inspekcija

Cena po inspekciji Broj inspekcija Cena po inspekciji

piping 2555 200 16 8,176,000.00 € 340 7 6,080,900.00 €

Columns 23 8000 16 2,944,000.00 € 13600 7 2,189,600.00 €

Heat exchangers 110 2000 16 3,520,000.00 € 3400 7 2,618,000.00 €

Vessels 110 1000 16 1,760,000.00 € 1700 7 1,309,000.00 €

Reactors 7 1000 16 112,000.00 € 1700 7 83,300.00 €

Filters 24 800 16 307,200.00 € 1360 7 228,480.00 €

Air coolers 16 1000 16 256,000.00 € 1700 7 190,400.00 €

Fired heaters 12 2000 16 384,000.00 € 3400 7 285,600.00 €

Fin/Fans 17 1000 16 272,000.00 € 1700 7 202,300.00 €

Pumps 94 100 16 150,400.00 € 170 7 111,860.00 €

Compressors 3 500 16 24,000.00 € 850 7 17,850.00 €

Turbines 24 5000 16 1,920,000.00 € 8500 7 1,428,000.00 €

Valves 1462.5 80 40 4,680,000.00 € 120 20 3,510,000.00 €

Gear Boxes 5 1000 16 80,000.00 € 1700 7 59,500.00 €

Other equipment 22 500 16 176,000.00 € 850 7 130,900.00 €

0 0 0 24,761,600.00 € 0 0 18,445,690.00 €

24,761,600.00 € 18,445,690.00 €


Main result: savings + inspection plan

Current financial risk (€/year)

Future financial risk (€/year)o According to current practiceo No inspectiono With different inspection scenarios


Sample results: (optimized) SAFETY!

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 €

500,000 €

1,000,000 €

1,500,000 €

2,000,000 €

2,500,000 €

3,000,000 €

3,500,000 €

T-7

D-2

T-9

T-4

D-4

T-8

D-7

D-6

T-6

T-5

D-1

T-1

E-1A

/BE-

101/

BE-

2D-

5E-

101/

AE-

110

E-10

2T-

3D-

27A

D-27

BD-

27C

D-27

DD-

27E

D-27

FD-

28A

D-28

BD-

28C

D-28

DD-

28E

D-28

FD-

29A

D-29

BD-

29C

T-2

D-10

2T-

101

HP-1

HP-2 JI-1

JI-2

SP-1

D-30

0C1

A/B

(poti

s)C1

A/B

(usis

)C2

A/B

(poti

s)C2

A/B

(usis

)

In order to remove 90% of risk worth over 3,000,000 € it is enough to inspect only 15 out of over 100 components!

The question: Which 15?

The answer: RBI


Sample results: SAVE!


Main result: savings + inspection planSavings: Know what is NOT to be inspected

(€300,000)

(€200,000)

(€100,000)

€0

€100,000

€200,000

€300,000

Difference WITHOUT inspection

Difference WITH inspection

GainsGains

LossesLosses

Components with MAX gain in NPV when inspected

Components with practically NO gain in NPV when inspected

Component with LOSSES in NPV no matter inspected or

not


ONE System!!!

Network of NIS-Steinbeisprojects anddatabases

RiskNISRiskNIS ProjectRiskProjectRisk

LitigationDBLitigationDB ESPRiTESPRiT

EnvironNISEnvironNISiNTeg-Risk

iNTeg-RiskYet to be

developed: Asset Management

System!

Yet to be developed:

Asset Management System!

Steinbeis SystemCommon:

1.User management

2.Asset (plants!) management

3.Tools (risk!)

4.Interfaces (e.g. graphics, DBs, …)

5.System management

Steinbeis SystemCommon:

1.User management

2.Asset (plants!) management

3.Tools (risk!)

4.Interfaces (e.g. graphics, DBs, …)

5.System management


1. The project has “paid its costs”

2. For 2010: Inspect all of the plant best possible way (know better the starting point, inspections are not expensive)

3. After that – STOP unnecessary inspections at OPTIMUM!

4. Savings safety 5. Full control in the tool (e.g. when “playing” with

different scenarios)

5 Main conclusions


CONCLUSIONS – Positive balance

1. “Current balance sheet of the project”… The project has “paid its costs”

Investment Return Comment

Package A

530 k€ ESPRiT ~500 k€ 500 participant-course x 1000 € per participant-course

Package B

387 k€ iNTeg-Risk

310 k€ EU financing

Package B

Estimated savings

~1,400 k€ only pumps and inspections in 2 refineries, so far: further savings expected with the use in RNS and RNP

TOTAL 917 k€ TOTAL ~2,200 k€ BALANCE: ~ 1 300 000 € + other indirect benefits, so far


CONCLUSIONS – A clear indication (=optimum!) for/of future actions (=inspections!) needed

2. For 2010: Inspect all of the plant best possible way (know better the starting point, inspections are not expensive)

3. After that – STOP unnecessary inspections at OPTIMUM!

4. Savings safety

Savings

Inspection costs

Risk

Components

Savin

gs,

Cost

of

risk

(€

)


CONCLUSIONS – Improved tool!Also for integration

5. Full control in the tool (e.g. when “playing” with different scenarios)

finalization of risknis package b:

Documents

cost level

pieces of equipmentc

rgemore analyses level

suggested package

summary of achievements

detailed results

new interface summary

rcfa analysis introduction