information theory & the ergonomics of information...•jeff bezos –“edge of a golden age”...

Artificial IntelligenceThe Distance Between You

and Knowledge

Michael J. Pritchard, ScM, ScD (ABD)

[email protected]

Healthcare Information and Management Systems Society, 2018

Greater Kansas City Chapter, Kansas City, Missouri

mailto:[email protected]

2/7/2020 Great Plains Alliance for Computers and Writing, 2018 2

Situation

The Distance

2/7/2020HIMSS, Greater Kansas City Chapter, 2018. Kansas City,

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“Data, underlyingunits that permeate

the universe.”

“Information, usefulinsights created

from Data.”

“Knowledge, a sharedawareness derived frominformation we gather.” “You”

The Hunt


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Data

Knowledge Shared Awareness Knowledge

The Gap


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Data

Knowledge

Effort tocreate

Knowledge

Farming Data forInformation

Hunting For Data

Creating Knowledge

Not so easy!

AI and The Gap


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Data

Knowledge

Effort tocreate

Knowledge

Someone call to have something destroyed?!Oops, my bad, wrong

presentation.Easy, let’s create some

knowledge.


Complications

The Pundit Roundup• Doomsday

• Elon Musk – “More Dangerous Than Nukes”

• Apprehension• Bill Gates – “Humans Should Be Worried”

• Rational• Kate Crawford – “Reflects The Values of Its Creators”

• Pragmatic• Masayoshi Son – “Going To Be Our Partner”

• Positive• Jeff Bezos – “Edge Of A Golden Age”


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+-


Questions


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Where did it even come from?

What does it look like today?

Where do we go from here?

AI


Perspectives

Cultural Perspectives• Historically Speaking, A VERY Prevalent Theme

• Artificial Automatons have captivated us for centuries…

• Before Common Era

• 700 – Pandora in Hesiod’s Theogony

• 300 – Talus in Apollonius’ Argonautica

• 200 – Golem in Ketuvim, Tanakh (Bláha, 2009)

• 150 – Nabis’, The Iron Apega (Briscoe, 1976)

• Common Era

• 500 – Ling’s Dancing Robot (Moran, 2011)

• 850 – Devices of Banu Musa (Koetsier, 2001)

• 1190 - Copper Men in Chrétien’s Perceval (Bruce, 1913)


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AI’s Humble Beginnings – The Paper Period


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• 1500 – Cardano’s “Games of Chance”

• 1654 – Pascal and Fermat create mathematical theory of probability

• 1693 – Halley creates a statistical human mortality table

• 1761 – Bayes proves Bayes’ theorem

• 1801 – Gauss predicts the orbit of Ceres using a line of best fit

The Iron Period: 1800s to early 1900s


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• 1832 – Babbage’s Differential Engine

• 1842 – Lovelace Symbolic Programming

• 1886 – Scott’s Harmonic Analyzer

• 1940 – Turing’s Crytographic “Bombe“

• 1948 – Turing creates a chess playing algorithm

• 1949 – Phillips’ Moniac (Fluidic Logic Machine)

The Silicon Period: 1900s to present• 1967 – Cover & Hard develop Nearest Neighbor pattern classifier

• 1979 – Stanford University creates a robot that can navigate a room

• 1987 – Alacrity, first commercially developed “expert system”

• 1997 – IBM’s Deep Blue beats Garry Kasparov

• 2004 – Robotic exploration of Mars begins (and still continues)

• 2014 – Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs)

• 2017 – Musk’s OpenAI engine defeats top ranked human Dota player

• 2018 – AlphaGo Zero Created


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Today

How is AI categorized?

• Reactive Machine• DeepMind, DeepBlue, AlphaGo

• Limited Memory• Tesla Autonomous Driving

• Theory of Mind• Not there yet, but very close…Google Duplex

• Self-Aware• The Singularity Event?


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Its not a question of “if”, its already here…

• Journalism

•Gaming

•Manufacturing


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• Finance

•Healthcare

• Everywhere…

Its getting scary good…


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Google’s Famous Appointment

Robotics in Journalism• Artificial intelligence is speeding up research, the cross-referencing of

data; even writing and finalizing entire articles for publication. (Underwood, 2018; Sankin, 2014)


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Artificial Intelligence in Gaming

• Where we are still holding the machines at bay…• E-Sport: Dota 2 – Incredibly complex

• Recent 5v5 match, AI lost (Vincent, 2018)

• “100 human lifetimes of experience every single day.”

• Where the machines win today….and will always win going forward• Board Game: Go – Incomprehensibly complex (Dong, Wu and Zhou, 2017)

• Board Configurations, 10170 (there are 1080 atoms in the observable universe)• 1 million trillion trillion trillion trillion more configurations than chess

• AlphaGo beat Lee Sedol > 4 out of 5 matches

• …and AI is only getting smarter.• AlphaGo vs AlphaGo Zero

• AlphaGo Zero beat AlphaGo > 100 times out of 100 matches


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Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare


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• Artificial Neural Network (Dybowski et al., 1996)• Prediction of outcome in critically ill patients using artificial neural network

synthesized using a genetic algorithm

• Robotic Process Automation (Primer, 2015)

• University Hospital Birmingham (UHB) implemented RPA technology to reduce the time it took to register patients.

• Random Forest Classifier (Calderoni et al., 2015)

• Real Time Location Systems: Indoor localization in a hospital environment

• Ensemble Method: LR, XGBoost, and DNN (Hong, Haimovich, & Taylor, 2018)

• Predict hospital admission at the time of ED triage

Artificial Intelligence in Mental Health


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• Hierarchical Modeling – Raw Cell Phone Sensor Data (Mohr et al., 2017)

• Translating raw sensor data into markers of behaviors and states related to mental health.

• Logistic Regression w/ LASSO – Mobile Telemetry Capture (Place et al., 2017)

• Behavioral indicators used to predict symptoms of mood and anxiety disorders

• Support Vector Machines – Wearable Data Analysis (Sano et al., 2018)

• Identify objective physiological markers and mental health status


Cyborg-ish

An Integrative Period


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Human Symbiosis…like, Cyborgs?


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• Well…yes…in many respects we are already Cybernetic.• Biological limitation in terms our cranium…

• …our information capacity is limited….

• …so how do we get around this?

Access to 4.4 Billion Indexed

Web Pages

Wikipedia

The difference between…


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….is only the distance between you and knowledge.

What is the current astronomical position of Pluto?

Right Ascension: 19h 20m 47.6s Declination: -22° 08' 27.0" (J2000)Magnitude: 14.35, Constellation: SagittariusSun Distance: 5,036,676,501 km [5.5 km/s] Earth Distance: 5,069,329,706 km [32.6 km/s]Perihelion: 4 Feb 2237 07:20 UTC [-79724d 9h 56m 36s]

.005 Seconds Later

….20 seconds later….

… and tomorrow….

…today….

Think about how much we have…


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Our connectivity isMASSIVE ….

….it has made us super human!

Tell me where all the first 100,000 prime numbers are

located.

What is the molecular structure of salt?

Who was King Odin?

The myth?

Historical accounts?

What is the composition of my DNA?

What part of my DNA comes from my

mother?

Why is 82,000 an extraordinary number?

Getting Started with AI


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Establish an R&D mentality

AI requires a commitment to

scientific curiosity

Collect the use cases

Start with something simple

Register the Return on Investment

Focus on developing “Knowledge”

Evolve Acquire

“Final Mile” to Operations

Top 10 Quotes Generated by AI (InspiroBot)1) "Rule #9 Don't Throw Rocks At People When They Are Meditating."

2) “We all have the power to make multi-resistant bacteria spread across the globe”

3) “Delude your loved ones and say something useful”

4) "How would the world look if everyone you know started hooking up with telemarketers?"

5) "The fact that you know that you are sad makes you smart."

6) “Should we just get rid of extraterrestrials?”

7) “Don’t get upset about your cake, just drive.”

8) “If you had that on a t-shirt you would be loved.”

9) “Someone has to cry. Why not you?”

10) “Don’t be a winner, just be yourself.”



Thank You!

• Bláha, J. (2009). The Torah, Kabbalah and Jewish Poetry: A Brief Introduction to Jewish Thought. Marek Konecn√ Ω.

• Bruce, J. D. (1913). Human automata in classical tradition and mediaeval romance. Modern Philology, 10(4), 511-526.

• Calderoni, L., Ferrara, M., Franco, A., & Maio, D. (2015). Indoor localization in a hospital environment using random forest classifiers. Expert Systems with Applications, 42(1), 125-134.

• Cannon, C. (2016). Knowledge Management in a Combined/Joint Environment. International Journal of Computer, Electrical, Automation, Control and Information Engineering, 10(10).

• Clayton, J. (2003). Frankenstein's futurity: replicants and robots. Cambridge Companions Online, Cambridge University Press, 2006.

• De Fren, A. (2009). Technofetishism and the Uncanny Desires of ASFR (alt. sex. fetish. robots). Science Fiction Studies, 404-440.

• Dong, X., Wu, J., & Zhou, L. (2017). Demystifying alphago zero as alphago GAN. arXiv preprint arXiv:1711.09091.

• Dybowski, R., Gant, V., Weller, P., & Chang, R. (1996). Prediction of outcome in critically ill patients using artificial neural network synthesised by genetic algorithm. The Lancet, 347(9009), 1146-1150.

• Hong, W. S., Haimovich, A. D., & Taylor, R. A. (2018). Predicting hospital admission at emergency department triage using machine learning. PloS one, 13(7), e0201016.

• Koetsier, T. (2001). On the prehistory of programmable machines: musical automata, looms, calculators. Mechanism and Machine theory, 36(5), 589-603.

• Mohr, D. C., Zhang, M., & Schueller, S. M. (2017). Personal sensing: understanding mental health using ubiquitous sensors and machine learning. Annual review of clinical psychology, 13, 23-47.

• Moran, M. E. (2011). The history of robotic surgery. In Robotics in genitourinary surgery (pp. 3-24). Springer, London.

• Place, S., Blanch-Hartigan, D., Rubin, C., Gorrostieta, C., Mead, C., Kane, J., ... & Deckersbach, T. (2017). Behavioral indicators on a mobile sensing platform predict clinically validated psychiatric symptoms of mood andanxiety disorders. Journal of medical Internet research, 19(3).

• Primer, A. (2015). Introduction To Robotic Process Automation. Institute for Robotic Process Automation.

• Sankin, A. (2014). The future of journalistm just got a little more robotic. The Daily Dot. URL: https://www.dailydot.com/debug/robot-journalism-study/

• Sano, A., Taylor, S., McHill, A. W., Phillips, A. J., Barger, L. K., Klerman, E., & Picard, R. (2018). Identifying Objective Physiological Markers and Modifiable Behaviors for Self-Reported Stress and Mental Health Status Using Wearable Sensors and Mobile Phones: Observational Study. Journal of medical Internet research, 20(6), e210.

• Scott, R. H., & Kurtis, R. H. (1886). III. On the working of the harmonic analyser at the meteorological office. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, 40(242-245), 382-392.

• Underwood, C. (2018). Automated Journalism - AI Applications at New York Times, Reuters, and Other Media Giants. techemergence. URL: https://www.techemergence.com/automated-journalism-applications/

• Vincent, J. (2018). OPENAI’S DOTA 2 Defeat Is Still A Win for Artificial Intelligence. URL: https://www.theverge.com/2018/8/28/17787610/openai-dota-2-bots-ai-lost-international-reinforcement-learning

• Zins, C. (2008). What is the meaning of" data"," information", and" knowledge. Knowledge Map of Information Science.

References


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https://www.techemergence.com/automated-journalism-applications/

https://www.theverge.com/2018/8/28/17787610/openai-dota-2-bots-ai-lost-international-reinforcement-learning

information theory & the ergonomics of information...•jeff bezos –“edge of a golden age”...

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