information media partners – michael cairns – infomediapartners.com all in a state of publishing...
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Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
All in a State of Publishing
Michael CairnsInformation Media Partners
RLG Symposium, Chicago - June 11, 2010
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
“For Libraries and Librarians, the new premium on skills they have long cultivated as curators,
preservers, and retrievers of collective knowledge puts them squarely on top of an
information geyser in the sciences that could reshape medicine.”
Jonathan Shaw – Gutenberg 2.0: Harvard’s Libraries Deal With Disruptive Change
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
Information Publishers are trailblazers
CompetentMaster Learner
EducationInformation Trade
20031990 1995
20102015 2001
Rapid InvestmentNew Dangers Caution
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
Introduction and Agenda
Summary of the business environment The future of the book (so far) Publishing in the digital age
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
Publishing: Like Any Other Industry
Change Dislocation Speed Technology
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
Characterizing the Marketplace today
Subdued Anxious Retrenchment Confusion Jealousy
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
Key Segment Business Drivers
Trade Big author block
buster Technology –
Products Technology –
Distribution Retail stability Media tie-ins
“Celebrity” Conflict over
‘attention’
Education Government spending –
NCLB Education Policy
Local & state Adoptions Taxes
Enrollments Economy
Continuing education Community colleges Long distance Vocational/Technical
Workflow tools Evaluative Administrative
Information Practicing
professionals Macro economics Library budgets Government
investment Workflow
applications Technology
innovation
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
Revenues Look Healthy
$39,936
$40,321
$41,040
$42,028
2007 2008 2009(E) 2010(E)
Source: BISG Trends Report 2009
($,Millions)
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
New Book Titles and Editions: 2003-2010(E)
764,448
288,355
215,138
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
SelfPubs Traditonal
Source: R.R. Bowker
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
Sales of Trade E-Books $ Millions
$11.2
$90.0
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10
Source: IDPF
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
Sales of Digital Textbooks: Percent of US Market
0%2%4%6%8%
10%12%14%16%18%20%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Misouri Book Company
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
Many publishers have been publishing in e-Formats for
many years.
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
Pearson: Digital is 31% of revenues in 2009.
Wiley, Elsevier, Wolters Kluwer have similar statistics
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
Observations
Revolution or reinvention? E-Books highly segmented Trade adoption driven by hardware and price Education faster mover, academic less so No significant innovation Piracy – No consistent approach, no real data
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
Trade: “a giant mess”…“no massive change”
Top of the pyramid Senior executives are focused on ‘E’ Most publishers not addressing the transition Reliant on supply chain to drive e-Content Curation is little understood but will be important Workflows are being redefined
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
Academic: “future hasn’t been invented yet”
Print is still ‘format of record’ – dissertations, tenure Limited impact of e-Content migrations
Content rendering issues Old publishing model: long lead times, high pricing,
one dimensional content Bastardized content: graphs, tables, equations, etc.
Potential to exceed Trade in application of benefits of e-Content Indexing, bibliographies, source materials, etc.
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
Education: “much faster than anticipated”
E-Content migration significantly underway Successes with “born digital” content – not just
‘migrated’ print content Few publishers thinking about ‘e’ from scratch
E-Book hardware have failed (thus far) in education Market develops to a ‘database’ and ‘subscription’
model Content becomes ‘dynamic’
Platform for services and content
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
“Many of our genre titles couldn’t be published without library buy-in. Of 8,000-10,000 units only
2,000 go to retail.”
“I don’t understand how libraries are going to exist in a future market.”
“We don’t love any of the models that exist for libraries.”
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
Implications
Patron and library data vacuum Ambivalence and lack of awareness of library
market dynamics: “What’s remote access?” Relationship between loaning and buying Characteristics of library patrons Current patron behavior in an e-Content world Can patrons be leveraged by publishers more
effectively?
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
A library social world
Gathering readers together The ‘lonely act’ of reading transitioning to
community reading Around the book Building communities Networked reading Can librarians help this trend and/or participate
in it
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
Publishing in the Digital Age
Thoughts and predictions
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
Remember the Characterization?
Subdued Anxious Retrenchment Confusion Jealousy
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
Are things really that bad?
During 2009 Book Publishing a winner No ‘resurrection’ during 2009 Executives guarded about immediate future Short to medium term problems with
education and library funding No bail-out!
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
Change is Coming
Trade Re-evalution of
value chain Direct to
consumer models Publishers as
retailers, retailers as publishers
Information Software as a
service Application
providers Service
outsourcers Embedded
content
Education Expanded value
chain Solutions
providers Custom
production Content,
Assessment, Remediation, Management
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
eBooks and eContent holds center stage
2009 ‘Year of the E-Book’ Apple’s (Hardware) role in book/media
content will be defining Google Editions: “The Cloud” Content ‘rights’ challenged: Concept of
ownership E-Content rather than E-Books E-Content another format option
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com27
Forecasting Publishing In The Digital Age
Publishing and technology will become synonymous
Web delivery, xml based and ‘open’ social network orientation
Expansion of solutions based publishing Education publishers rapid adoption of
solutions based applications Slow publishers will loose to new entrants
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
THANK YOU.
The United States of Publishing
Michael [email protected]
Blog: personanondata.blogspot.com