INFORMATION IN INSURGENCY:Enduring Nature, Changing Character

Presentation to the RAND Insurgency Board, June 2012

Steven MetzU.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute

Insurgency

Enduring NatureA strategy of violence used by the weak against a power structureShifts decisiveness across domainsCore functions: survive; weaken power structure; strengthen self

Changing CharacterOrganizationObjectivesConnectionsRole and form of violenceOperational methods

Evolutionary Pattern

Driving forces are inherent innovation and emulation of success

In the modern era, emulation has surpassed inherent innovation in importance

20th century: Maoist, proto-state model became the gold standard

Simultaneously strengthen selves, weaken stateUltimate success when insurgency had become state like

21st century: dispersed, networked, swarming, terrorism-focused, transnational

Explaining the Evolutionary Pattern

Improved state security systems

The decline of state sponsorship

New technology and systems for using the technology which make the dispersed, networked, swarming, terrorism-focused, transnational model of insurgency more viable and effective

Especially the Internet/new media

Components of the Internet/New MediaTechnology

Internet, laptops and tablet computers, image capture and editing, mobile communication, GPS

SystemsWeb pages, email, file sharing, chat, blogs, microblogs, IM, SMS, cloud storage

CultureVastly expanded connectivity Creation of new communities and identitiesAnti-authoritarianismDepersonalizationBlurring distinction reality and virtualNew basis for credibilityWiki knowledge development

Using the Internet/New MediaHow insurgents use it

Recruiting, network building, mobilizing supportTrainingIntelligence collectionOperational planning and strategy developmentFinancingPsychological offensive operations/amplification

Why insurgents use itLow entry cost in terms of training and moneyLow risk

From "amongst the people" to inside the matrixFacilitates a shift to the psychological domainImmense increase in potential audience, recruits, supporters, partners

Effects

Dense information flows and cheap/rapid communication facilitate networked organization and swarming techniquesInsurgents can aggregate broad currents of anger, frustration, and resentment

This can spark insurrection which can be a precursor to insurgency, i.e. insurgents have a surge capabilityInsurgencies composed of diverse nodes may not need a unifying ideology

Multiple connections allow the creation of complex, even conflicting narratives

Survival of the fittest--reinforce the narrative that seems to work

The dispersed, networked, swarming, terrorism-focused, transnational model of insurgency is more viable and effective

Terrorism Focus

Reliance on the Internet/new media propels an insurgency toward terrorism focused methodsThe commitment of online, tech savvy recruits has a short lifespan

Terrorism is a "use them or lose them" methodTerrorism is easier to plan and train for online or with limited physical interactionThe Internet and new media amplify the psychological effects of terrorism by greatly expanding the audience and bypassing traditional media for explanation

The Insurgent Continuum

Traditional, proto-stateinsurgencies whichadopt the Internet/new media as an applique

"Pure" Internet/new mediabased insurgencies

Taliban

al Qaeda1.0

Libya

al Qaeda2.0Egypt

TrajectoryThe bad news: dispersed, networked, swarming, terrorism-focused, transnational insurgencies are very hard to eradicate

Because they are transnational and virtual based, they can pop up somewhere else if quashed in one placeIt's nearly impossible to eradicate anger, frustration, and anti-authoritarianism

The good news: dispersed, networked, swarming, terrorism-focused, transnational insurgencies are unlikely to attain decisive success in the absence of major outside intervention if the initial insurrection fails

Our Challenge

Much of what we think we know about insurgency may be approaching obsolescence

The universality of the Maoist, proto-state modelThe concepts of legitimacy, building state capacity, winning popular supportThe ability of states to succeed at creating and sustaining a viable counterinsurgent narrativeThe ability of states to destroy networks