Information Flows and Policy

Use of Climate Diagnostics and Cyclone Prediction for Adaptive Water-Resources Management

Under Climatic Uncertainty

in Western North America

Research Team

University of Arizona (U.S.) R. G. Varady (PI) – Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy C. A. Scott (Deputy PI) – Udall Center; Dept. of Geography A. Browning-Aiken – Udall Center G. Garfin – Institute for the Study of Planet Earth (ISPE) B. Morehouse – ISPE M. Wilder – Center for Latin American Studies; Dept. of Geography

El Colegio de Sonora (México) N. Pineda

Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua - IMTA (México) M. Montero

National Center for Atmospheric Research (U.S.) D. Gochis

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (U.S.) A. Ray

Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM) – CNR II-2048 Project G. de Raga (PI) – UNAM L. Farfan, CICESE

Objectives

Improve flow of climate diagnostics for policy adoption

Assess vulnerability to climate & water variability Urban Rural

Conduct outreach & dissemination to managers

Linkages with CRNII-2048

Two main societal impacts of cyclones loss of life & property water resources (rainfall)

Water surplus or scarcity mediate climate variability impacts for decision-making

Working hypotheses Despite flooding & mudslides, cyclone rainfall

generates positive benefits inland over longer timeframes (months to seasons)

Cyclone wind & storm-surge damages spatially concentrated along coast temporally limited to days & weeks.

Cyclone Henriette - press notes

Comité de Protección Civil Reunido de Manera PermanenteComité de Protección Civil Reunido de Manera Permanente

Sept. 5, 2007 . . .

CIERRAN PUERTO YAVAROSCIERRAN PUERTO YAVAROS

Sept. 6, 2007 . . . Ejército Mexicano aplica Plan de EmergenciaEjército Mexicano aplica Plan de Emergencia

Gobernador Solicita Declaración de Desastre

Gobernador Solicita Declaración de Desastre

2 MUERTOS, 13 MIL DAMNIFICADOS2 MUERTOS, 13 MIL DAMNIFICADOS

PRI y PAN Recopilarán Víveres y PRD Solicitará

Intervención de Autoridades

PRI y PAN Recopilarán Víveres y PRD Solicitará

Intervención de Autoridades

Rainfall benefit

Beneficia el paso del huracán Sofía Zamora, indígena mayo de 82 años, ha vivido

varios huracanes “la lluvia provocará inicio de siembras” “trajo poco viento, pero sí mucha agua, que suele

ser muy escasa” Presas rebasan máximo nivel

372 millones de metros cúbicos de agua en tan sólo 24 horas

659 millones de metros cúbicos totales se consolida próximo ciclo agrícola sin restricciones

Binational climate diagnostic tool

Project implementationQuarter ending:Principal Milestones

Dec.2007

Mar.2008

Jun.2008

Sep.2008

Dec.2008

Mar.2009

Jun.2009

Sep.2009

Project inception meeting and coordination29-Oct

Task A: Climate outlook (version 1) initial distribution &

testing with stakeholders11-Mar

Version 2 9-Jun

Version 316-Sep

Version 412-Dec

Version 510-Mar

Task B principal milestones: Survey of climate information management in 4 cities

15-Mar

Characterization of civil protection & past drought and flood emergencies

15-Sep

Water supply, demand and efficiency assessment15-Mar

4-city comparative assessment of vulnerabilities15-Jun

Task C principal milestones: Characterization of principal agricultural production

risk factors15-Mar

Ranking of socio-economic and gender vulnerabilities in agriculture

15-Jun

Assessment of groundwater vs. surface water irrigation

15-Dec

Characterization of combined climatic & economic risk in agriculture

15-Mar

Assessment of agriculture-urban water transfers and reuse

15-Jun

Task D principal milestones: Regional Climate Forum for Northwest Mexico & Southwest

U.S.10-Apr

1st Interactive Workshop in Hermosillo, mid-June 2008.

15-Jun

2nd Interactive Workshop in Mexico City by mid-March 2009.

15-Mar

Synthesis15-Aug