indonesia energy transition dynamic and the prospect of ......power plant: 51 gw energy consumpt:...
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Indonesia Energy Transition Dynamic and The Prospect of NPP
By
Dr Tumiran.
❑The Board Member of The National Energy Council of
Indonesia, 2009-2014, 2014-2019
❑Board Expert Chair, Indonesia Smart Grid Association
❑Chairman of The Jury of The Indonesia Best Electricity Award, 2015, 2016, 2017,2018,2019
❑Expert board member, Indonesia Electricity Association
❑Board Expert of Indonesia Electricity Magazine,
❑Dean of Engineering Faculty, Gadjah Mada University (2008-2012)
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Indonesia : consist of more than 17.000
Island, with population of 265 Million
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Introduction : Based Line Energy POLICY
❑ World energy supply in the future is oriented to consume much more green and clean energy sources
❑ Increasing Energy Consumed to 2040 in Asia Pacific Region will be dominated by China, India, and south
east Asean Region
❑ Indonesia as part of Asean Country is an archipelago consisting of over 17000 islands with a population of
about 262 million.
❑ Currently Indonesia's economy is being pushed to accelerate economic growth in various sectors.
❑ The main objective of encouraging its economic growth is accelerating job creation, enhancing the
nation's competitiveness
❑ The energy sector is believed to be the main sector to drive its economic growth along with the
acceleration of infrastructure development such as, new road and highway development, addition and
construction of new railways, construction of new bridges and build and renovate port in many islands.
❑ The development of energy to 2050 is guided by The National Energy Policy to 2050 which has been
established through government regulations No. 79/2014 and approved by the parliament.
❑ It is projected that in 2050-year Indonesia's energy demand will reach 400 MTOE with the composition of
energy mix which consists of 22 % gas, 25% oil, 30 % coal and new and renewable energy will reach at
least 23%. By 2050,
❑ the national energy demand will reach 1,000 MTOE with energy mix composition consist of 24 % of gas, 20%
of oil, 25 % of coal and 31 % of new and renewable energy
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CURENT SITUATION
❑ In line with energy demand growth and to optimize in managing of its
energy resource, Indonesia Parliament and the Government has set up a
new law in Energy (law no. 30, 2007).
❑ Based on this law, now Indonesia has had an Institution to manage its
National Energy Policy. This Institution is called as The National Energy
Council (NEC) and In Indonesia is Called DEN. Indonesia
❑ Indonesia has had National Energy Policy to 2050, declared as
Government Regulation PP. No 79/2014
❑ For action plan as the guidance to the Ministerial level for implementing
NEP, The president of Republic Indonesia has issued the President
Regulation No. 22/2017
❑ In line NEP guidance, Regional Province must set-up The Regional Energy
Planning which it called RUED Province
❑ Based on this, NEC has responsible to monitor for implementing them.
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Energy Consumed
Energy Consumed
Energy Consumed
Energy
Consumed
Year
• Economic growth
• Population Growth
• Industrial Growth and creating job
• Offices, building, apartement and
hotel growth
• Better social welfare
• Culture lifestyle change
Factors affecting
demand growth
Factors Affecting Energy Demand Growth in
Indonesia
Covid-19
Impact (-??)
Optimistic scenario
Pesimistic Scenario
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ENERGY MIX TARGET TO 2050
46%
18%
31%
5%
25%
22%
30%
23%
20%
24%
25%
31%
Energy Total: 194 MTOE
Power Plant: 51 GW
Energy Consumpt: 0.8 TOE/cap
Electricity Consumpt: 776
KWh/cap
2013 2025
Energy Total: 400 MTOE
Power Plant at least : 115
GW
Energy Consumption: 1.4
TOE/cap
Electricity Consumption:
2.500 KWh/cap
Energy Total: 1.000 MTOE
Power Plant at least : 430
GW
Energy Consumption: 3.2
TOE/cap
Electricity Consumpt:
7.000 KWh/cap
2050
NREOilGasCoal
a. Consume of gas increase
b. Consume of coal increase
c. Consume of oil increase
d. Contribution of RE Increased
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Government Effort to accelerate the Use of RE
23%
in
2025
INDONESIA New
and targeted
Hydro
Biofuel
Waste
to
energy
Geo-
thermal
Solar
PV
Wind
Energy
Tidal
Energy
Government
efforts to achieve
the goal• One Door One Stop Permit Policy
• Financing scheme
• Fiscal incentive
• Tax policy
• Campaign
• R&D
• etc
Local business
/community
/universityForeign
investors
/consultants
/community
/university
Nuclea
r: ???
EnergyEfficiency
Gas, Renewable, and Nuclear
Environment and Low Carbon
Security
Economy
Sustainability
In the Context of
Nuclear Energy
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Balance of Security, Economy and
Environment Sustainability
Security Economy
Sustainability
Environment and Low Carbon
Continuity/ Energy
Efficiency
Gas, Renewable, and Nuclear
The selection of energy
sources depend on:
1. energy resources
2. Pricing
3. Sustainability of
supply
4. Characteristic
supply needed
5. Distribution area,
6. Environmental
consideration
7. Political decision
8. GDP of the country
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Asia pacific Countries Dominated in
Energy Consumed
According to IEA projection Scenario,Asia Pacific Energy Demand Growthwill be dominated by
❑China
❑India
❑South East Asia Countries
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Chinas Electricity Power Capacity and Electricity Production Development
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Installed Capacity
(GW)
Thermal
Nuclear
Hydro
Wind
PV (Sun)
Biomass and
others
1,378
932 (67%)
20 (1,4)
304 (22%
96 (6,9)
24,8 (1,7%)
1,88
1,525
1,005 (65%)
27,2 (1,7%)
319,5 (20,9)
130,7 (8,5%
42,2 (2,7%)
0,853
1,650
1,060 (64,2)
33 (2%)
332 (20,1%)
147 (8,9)
76 (4,6)
1,777
1,104 (621)
35,8 (2,01)
343 (19,3)
163 (9,1)
129 (7,2)
1,899
1,143 (60,1)
44,6 (2,3)
352 (18,5)
184 (9,6)
174 (9,1)
Production (TWH)
Thermal
Nuklir
Hydro
Wind
PV (Sun)
Biomass and
others
5,680
4,302 (75,7%
133 (2,3)
1,060 (18,6%)
159 (2,7
23 (0,4%
0,545
5,739
4,230 (73,7%)
171 (2,9%
1,112 (19,3%)
185 (3,2%
39 (0, 6%)
0,147
6,022,
4,327 (71,8%)
213 (3,5 %)
1,174 (19,4%)
240 (3,9 %)
66 (1,1%)
6,417
4,555 (70,9%)
248 (3,8 %)
1,193 (18,5 %)
303 (4,7 %)
116 (1,8 %)
6,994
4,923 (70,3%)
294 (4,2%)
1,232 (17,6%)
366 (5,2% )
177 (2,5 %)
consupti
on
Industry 5,693 4,964 5,163 5,492 5,875
Residential 693 728 807 870 9685,639 5,693 5,971 6,362 6,844
58
Gwe
in
2020
Po
pp
ula
tio
n
aro
un
d o
f 1,5
M
Ele
ctr
icity C
on
sum
ptio
n
>4500
Kw
H/c
ap
ita
Total
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NPP:
127 GW
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NPP Prospect in Indonesia
In the scenario to reach the target of NRE to 23% in 2025 and 31
% in 2050 in the National Energy Mix, it is almost impossible
without supporting by NPP in the context of : continuity, reliability,
quality, security of supply and pricing.
Related to that, in NEP, in article 11, paragraph 3 has been
stated that shall be utilized by taking account the security of the
national scale, reducing carbon emission and keep prioritizing
the potential Renewable Energy according to its economical
values, as well as to consider it as the last option by paying close
attention to the safety factor.
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Pemilihan Sumber Daya Energi Primer
Ketersediaan local, regional atau impor
Penguasaan dan karakteristik konversi (continuous atau intermitten)
Struktur cost yang ekonomis
Kharakteristik demand yang mau di pasok
❑ Batubara❑ Gas❑ BBm
NUKLIR
ETHydro
Panas BumiBio-massBio-fuel
PVWind
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Proces Konversi, Efficiency, production cost
Energy Sources:
1. Fossil
Coal, Gas and Oil
2. Renewable Energy
Geothermal
Hydro
Wind
Sun
Waste
Bio
Tidal
etc
3. Nuclear : PWR, BWR (uranium)
Memerlukan Teknologi process konversi yang
berbeda dengan sumber daya energi yang
berbeda. Menghasilkan efisiensi yang berbeda
dan kharakteristik out-put yang berbeda
Punya
karakteristik
yang
berbeda
beda,
pengaruh
alam sangat
kuat
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Bagaimana Meletakkan Nuklir di
dalam komposisi energi mix:
1. Keamanan/Security : limited resources gas, batubara, minyak, ET yang continues
2. Ekonomis/Teknis: memerlukan listrik kapasitas besar dancontinue untuk mengejar ketertinggalan ekonomi: nuklirsifat continue dapat mengggantikan fungsi fosil, based load. EBT lian kecuali panas bumi bersifat intermitten untuksaat ini.
3. Keberlanjutan/Lingkungan: Indonesia dapat memaksakantidak memerlukan nuklir, walaupun ET bisa mencapai 31% di tahun 2050, tetapi ketergantungan batubara akan terusmeningkat, emisi Co2 akan terus meningkat.
4. Sustainable Development: Indonesia memelukanpengembangan wilayah, memerlukan energi listrik yang besar, penciptaan lapangan kerja
The Answer is Indonesia Need NPP
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Political Support
₋ Government has already made efforts to involve public in providing input, advice and recommendations with
respect to the use of nuclear science and technology,
especially a plan to build NPPs. However, it is not
optimal yet and all should be involved
₋ In the discussion of National Energy Policy Design the House of Representatives and in particular Commission
VII (energy, science and technology, and the
environment), a strong support to the introduction of
nuclear power plant is given.
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Regarding the IAEA Milestone Guideline for
Introducing NPP, The present status of the
Indonesian Program is entering the Second Phase:
“ Project Decision Making”.
Indonesia was done feasibility study, continuation
of site selection and evaluation, strengthen the
public acceptance and HRD.
But until now Indonesia has not set up NEPIO
(Nuclear Energy Program Implementation
Organization) yet.
Addressing of Infrastructure Issue
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THANKYOU