indicators of neighborhood change: measuring ... · indicators of neighborhood change: presentation...
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INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE:
Presentation to the Community Indicators Consortium 2016 Impact Summit September 26, 2016 Stephanie Rosoff, Data Manager, NYU Furman Center
Measuring Gentrification in New York City
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Rents are rising in New York City and incomes have not kept pace.
Sources: American Community Survey, NYU Furman Center
Index of Real Median Gross Rent and Real Median Renter Household Income (Index=100 in 2005), New York City
+18%
+7%
@FurmanCenterNYU
Median Gross Rent
80
90
100
110
120
130
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Median Renter Household Income
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A falling share of recently available units were affordable to low- and moderate- income households.
@FurmanCenterNYU
20%
64%
83%
13%
43%
76%
50% AMI 80% AMI 120% AMI
2000 2010-2014
Sources: Neighborhood Change Database (2000), American Community Survey (2010-2014), NYU Furman Center
Recently Available Rental Units Affordable to Appropriately-Sized Households, New York City
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A falling share of recently available units were affordable to low- and moderate- income households.
4 | @FurmanCenterNYU | #NYChousing
20%
64%
83%
13%
43%
76%
50% AMI 80% AMI 120% AMI
2000 2010-2014
Sources: Neighborhood Change Database (2000), American Community Survey (2010-2014), NYU Furman Center
Recently Available Rental Units Affordable to Appropriately-Sized Households, New York City
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Gentrifying neighborhoods saw the largest decline in the % of units affordable to low- and moderate- income households.
Sources: Neighborhood Change Database (2000), American Community Survey (2010-2014), NYU Furman Center
Recently Available Rental Units Affordable to Appropriately-Sized Households, Gentrifying Neighborhoods
@FurmanCenterNYU
33%
77%
94%
20%
48%
83%
50% AMI 80% AMI 120% AMI
2000 2010-2014
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Gentrifying neighborhoods saw the largest decline in the % of units affordable to low- and moderate- income households.
Sources: Neighborhood Change Database (2000), American Community Survey (2010-2014), NYU Furman Center
Recently Available Rental Units Affordable to Appropriately-Sized Households, Gentrifying Neighborhoods
@FurmanCenterNYU
33%
77%
94%
20%
48%
83%
50% AMI 80% AMI 120% AMI
2000 2010-2014
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Defining Gentrifying Neighborhoods in New York City
Source: NYU Furman Center
@FurmanCenterNYU
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Source: NYU Furman Center
@FurmanCenterNYU
Defining Gentrifying Neighborhoods in New York City
Bottom 40% of neighborhoods by 1990 average income
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Source: NYU Furman Center
@FurmanCenterNYU
Defining Gentrifying Neighborhoods in New York City
Bottom 40% of neighborhoods by 1990 average income AND Rent increase higher than median neighborhood between 1990 and 2014
Bottom 40% of neighborhoods by 1990 average income
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Source: NYU Furman Center
@FurmanCenterNYU
Defining Gentrifying Neighborhoods in New York City
Gentrifying: Lower-income and high rent growth
Non-gentrifying: Lower-income and modest rent growth
Higher-income: Top 60% of neighborhoods by 1990 average income
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Rents in gentrifying neighborhoods grew by an average of 34% since 1990.
1990 to 2000
2000 to 2014
1990 to 2014
Citywide 2% 19% 21%
Gentrifying 3% 30% 34%
Non-Gentrifying -3% 16% 13%
Higher-Income 2% 16% 18%
Average Percent Change in Mean Household Rent
Sources: Neighborhood Change Database (1990, 2000), American Community Survey (2010-2014), NYU Furman Center
@FurmanCenterNYU
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Some gentrifying neighborhoods saw even more dramatic increases in rent.
Sources: Neighborhood Change Database (1990), American Community Survey (2010-2014), NYU Furman Center
79%
53% 50% 44% 40% 37% 36%
Williamsburg/Greenpoint
Central Harlem Lower East Side/Chinatown
Bushwick East Harlem MorningsideHeights/HamiltonHeights
BedfordStuyvesant
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Percent Change in Average Rent, 1990 to 2014
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Some gentrifying neighborhoods saw even more dramatic increases in rent.
Sources: Neighborhood Change Database (1990), American Community Survey (2010-2014), NYU Furman Center
79%
53% 50% 44% 40% 37% 36%
Williamsburg/Greenpoint
Central Harlem Lower East Side/Chinatown
Bushwick East Harlem MorningsideHeights/HamiltonHeights
BedfordStuyvesant
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Percent Change in Average Rent, 1990 to 2014
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GENTRIFYING NEIGHBORHOODS:
Changes in Demographics
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Between 1990 and 2014, average household income increased only in gentrifying neighborhoods.
Sources: Neighborhood Change Database (1990), American Community Survey (2010-2014), NYU Furman Center
2%
14%
-8%
-1%
Citywide Gentrifying Non-Gentrifying Higher-Income
Percent Change in Average Household Income, 1990 to 2010-2014
@FurmanCenterNYU
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The share of adults with a college degree in gentrifying neighborhoods was largely due to recent movers.
Educational Attainment Among Recent Movers Aged 25+, 2010-2014
Sources: American Community Survey (2010-2014), NYU Furman Center
42%
19%
53%
58% 81%
47%
Gentrifying Non-Gentrifying Higher-Income
College Degree No College Degree
@FurmanCenterNYU
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Gentrifying neighborhoods had a higher share of young-adult recent movers.
Age Composition of Recent Movers Age 20+, 2010-2014
Sources: American Community Survey (2010-2014), NYU Furman Center
28%
61% 81% 19%
47%
53%
11%
61% 48% 55%
28% 34%
31%
11% 18% 15%
Gentrifying Non-Gentrifying Higher-Income
20-34 35-54 55 and older
@FurmanCenterNYU
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Gentrifying neighborhoods saw the largest increase in the share of single and unrelated-adult households.
34%
30%
37%
43%
33% 37%
Gentrifying Non-Gentrifying Higher-Income
1990 2010 - 2014
Sources: Neighborhood Change Database (1990), American Community Survey (2010-2014), NYU Furman Center
Share Non-Family Households
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Gentrifying neighborhoods saw growth in white population share despite citywide decline.
Sources: Neighborhood Change Database, NYU Furman Center
Share Non-Hispanic White
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43%
19%
33%
21%
1990 2010
Citywide Gentrifying Neighborhoods
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Gentrifying neighborhoods saw larger decline in black population share than the city as a whole.
Sources: Neighborhood Change Database, NYU Furman Center
@FurmanCenterNYU
26%
38%
24%
31%
1990 2010
Share Non-Hispanic Black
Citywide Gentrifying Neighborhoods
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GENTRIFYING NEIGHBORHOODS:
Examining Gentrification at the Census Tract Level
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Percent change in rent varied widely across census tracts.
Sources: Neighborhood Change Database (1990), American Community Survey (2010-2014), NYU Furman Center
Decrease
0 to 25% Increase
25% to 50% Increase
>50% Increase
Percent Change in Mean Household Rent by Census Tract, 1990 to 2010-14
@FurmanCenterNYU
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Source: NYU Furman Center
@FurmanCenterNYU
Defining Gentrifying Census Tracts in New York City
Gentrifying: Lower-income and high rent growth (N=508)
Non-gentrifying: Lower-income and modest rent growth (N=312)
Higher-income: Top 60% of census tracts by 1990 average income (N=1,319)
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Many gentrifying census tracts experienced extremely large increases in rent between 1990 and 2010-2014.
Distribution of Percent Change in Mean Household Rent by Gentrifying Census Tract, 1990 to 2010-2014*
Sources: Neighborhood Change Database (1990), American Community Survey (2010-2014), NYU Furman Center *Not shown: 28 census tracts had a percent change in mean household rent >100%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
# C
ensu
s Tr
acts
% Change in Mean Household Rent, 1990 to 2010-2014
@FurmanCenterNYU
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Non-gentrifying census tracts experienced rent growth too.
Distribution of Percent Change in Mean Household Rent by Non-Gentrifying Census Tract, 1990 to 2010-2014
Sources: Neighborhood Change Database (1990), American Community Survey (2010-2014), NYU Furman Center
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
# C
ensu
s Tr
acts
% Change in Mean Household Rent, 1990 to 2010-2014
@FurmanCenterNYU
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Percent change in rent varied widely across higher- income census tracts.
Distribution of Percent Change in Mean Household Rent by Higher-Income Census Tract, 1990 to 2010-2014*
Sources: Neighborhood Change Database (1990), American Community Survey (2010-2014), NYU Furman Center *Not shown: 8 census tracts had a percent change in mean household rent >100%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
# C
ensu
s Tr
acts
% Change in Mean Household Rent, 1990 to 2010-2014
@FurmanCenterNYU
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GENTRIFYING NEIGHBORHOODS:
Predictors of Gentrification
@FurmanCenterNYU
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Gentrifying tracts nearest Manhattan saw the largest increases in rent.
Sources: Neighborhood Change Database (1990), American Community Survey (2010-2014), NYU Furman Center
0 to 25% Increase
25% to 50% Increase
>50% Increase
Percent Change in Mean Household Rent by Gentrifying Census Tract, 1990 to 2010-14
@FurmanCenterNYU
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Gentrifying census tracts were the tracts with the largest population losses in the 1970s and 1980s.
Sources: Neighborhood Change Database, NYU Furman Center
Population Change by Gentrifying Census Tract, 1970 to 1980
Population Change by Gentrifying Census Tract, 1980 to 1990
@FurmanCenterNYU
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Gentrifying neighborhoods have not regained the population lost in the 1970s.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Citywide +4%
Gentrifying Neighborhoods -16%
Sources: Neighborhood Change Database, NYU Furman Center
Total Population (Index=100 in 1970)
@FurmanCenterNYU
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Gentrifying neighborhoods have not gained back the housing units lost in the 1970s.
Citywide +16%
Gentrifying Neighborhoods -2%
Sources: Neighborhood Change Database, NYU Furman Center
Total Housing Units (Index=100 in 1970)
@FurmanCenterNYU
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
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Of the initially low-income tracts, gentrifying tracts were: • More likely to experience population loss
between 1970 and 1990 • Closer to core Manhattan (and public
transportation) and to higher-income tracts
• Somewhat more likely to have had lower average household incomes in 1990
• Somewhat more likely to have had higher poverty rates in 1990
@FurmanCenterNYU
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Many of New York City’s public housing developments are in or near gentrifying census tracts.
Sources: NYC Housing Authority, NYU Furman Center
Gentrifying Census Tracts
NYC Housing Authority Development
@FurmanCenterNYU
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Public housing and privately-owned subsidized housing make up a significant share of housing units in gentrifying neighborhoods.
Sources: New York City Department of Finance Final Tax Roll File, New York City Housing Authority, NYU Furman Center
@FurmanCenterNYU
Public Housing Privately-Owned Subsidized Buildings
Gentrifying 12% 26% - 28%
Non-Gentrifying 6% 24% - 27%
Higher-Income 2% 8% - 9%
Share of housing units by neighborhood type (sub-borough definition), 2012
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Public housing and privately-owned subsidized housing make up a significant share of housing units in gentrifying neighborhoods.
Public Housing Privately-Owned Subsidized Buildings
Gentrifying 12% 26% - 28%
Non-Gentrifying 6% 24% - 27%
Higher-Income 2% 8% - 9%
Share of housing units by neighborhood type (sub-borough definition), 2012
Sources: New York City Department of Finance Final Tax Roll File, New York City Housing Authority, NYU Furman Center
@FurmanCenterNYU
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INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE:
Presentation to the Community Indicators Consortium 2016 Impact Summit September 26, 2016 Stephanie Rosoff, Data Manager, NYU Furman Center
Measuring Gentrification in New York City
@FurmanCenterNYU