india:the land of billion opportunities

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India: The Land of Billion Opportunities

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Pre-election Asset Class Perspective

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  • 1. India: The Land of Billion Opportunities

2. Talking PointsIndia structural Growth Story Asset class perspective in India Advantage Indian Mid Cap Equities The Duration Strategy in Indian Debt Markets Key Take Aways TBNG Philosophy Team TBNG 3. India structural Growth Story India is expected to be one of the fastest growing economies of the world in the coming decade, expected to reach around Rs 200 Trillion by 2020 (3x) 4. Key Structural positive for IndiaClose to 12.5 million youth population enters workforce every year in India. Of the BRIC countries, India is projected to stay the youngest with its working age population estimated to rise to 70% of the total population by 2030, leading to private savings growth. In 10 years from now, the Indias country-wide average age will be 29 Yrs compared to 37 Yrs in the US and China, 45 Yrs in Europe and 48 Yrs in Japan. India is likely to add 170 mn workers to its labor force between till 2025 compared with 50 mn. In China over the same period. 5. Talking PointsIndia structural Growth Story Asset class perspective in India Advantage Indian Mid Cap Equities The Duration Strategy in Indian Debt Markets Key Take Aways TBNG Philosophy Team TBNG 6. Asset Class Perspective in India Asset Class Performance & Current Yields: Over the last decade, Gold & RE have outperformed all other major asset classes Leading to huge undervaluation in equities, which provide greater income yield combined with capital gains benefit 7. Asset Class Perspective in India Real Estate: India Real estate has reached a point where it is not affordable to an average income earner CountryMortgage yieldRental YieldAustralia Japan USA Russia Hong Kong China Singapore India UK7.00% 1.40% 3.30% 9.10% 5.00% 6.00% 5.40% 10.60% 0.50%4.90% 4.50% 4.30% 3.60% 3.00% 2.70% 2.40% 2.40% 2.10%Country China India Singapore Russia Japan USA Brazil Thailand Philippines IndonesiaGDP Per Capita ($) 5,184.00 1,527.00 50,714.00 13,236.00 45,774.00 48,147.00 12,917.00 5,281.00 2,255.00 3,469.00Price to rent (x) 37.6 37.3 33.9 27.5 22.4 21.3 15.8 15.3 11.6 10.7 8. Asset Class Perspective in India Gold as an investment: The chart below that gives the real prices of Gold in USD terms is very illustrative and also Suggests a similar conclusion. The last time Gold prices were at current levels in real terms was in January 1980, a good 32 years earlier. In other words, Gold prices in real terms are presently once again at a level from where they have yielded nil real returns after 32 long years. 9. Asset Class Perspective in IndiaIndian Equities have become cheap compared to other asset classes Returns in Real Estate and Gold are influenced from money flow from illicit economy while equities are orphan in this sense. Average Indian Household has a long drawn preference towards low risk assets. Equities form a low proportion of net savings. This has created asset price distortion while making equities value cheaper from investment perspective 10. Talking PointsIndia structural Growth Story Asset class perspective in India Advantage Indian Mid Cap Equities The Duration Strategy in Indian Debt Markets Key Take Aways TBNG Philosophy Team TBNG 11. Advantage Indian Mid Cap Equities Since the last peak in Nov 2010 the Small and Mid cap stocks are trading at a discount to their Large cap counterparts. 12. Advantage Indian Mid Cap Equities Midcap valuations are currently at 2009 lows. The midcap index rallied from 3300 levels to 8000 levels between 2009-2011. The increase in book value of the stocks in the midcap index has not been accompanied by increase in valuations. 13. Advantage Indian Mid Cap Equities The top 20 stocks have trebled, now making up 30% of the BSE100 market cap versus barely 10% in Dec-07. These stocks continue to outperform, providing gloss to the headline indices like Sensex and Nifty 14. Advantage Indian Mid Cap EquitiesMyth and reality of investing in mid and small cap companies Myths Equity exposure should be only through large caps Small caps are risky Now is not the right time for investing in mid and small cap companiesReality Exposure should be through quality stocks across the capitalization spectrum Quality companies have lower volatility and beta Valuations are appealing, performing companies have delivered across cyclesDespite reasonable performance from quality companies Mid and Small caps have valuation gap remains wide providing opportunities for long underperformed large caps term investors Low liquidity makes it difficult Appropriate product (mutual fund scheme) structure can take for investors to participate care of liquidity 15. Advantage Indian Mid Cap EquitiesInstitutional participation lopsided towards the top 15-20 stocks; valuations attractive in other pockets. Past experience has shown that investors have earned returns when investments are made in bear phases. Mid cap companies have led wealth creation in India with largest multiple expansion in market capitalization in the last ten year (18% of mid cap universe expanding more than 10x) The fundamentals of mid cap companies have improved much more over the last 10 years with correspondingly much higher increase in market capitalization. Huge time value correction has taken place in the Indian equity markets, where the balance sheets of the company have expanded much faster then their market value 16. Talking PointsIndia structural Growth Story Asset class perspective in India Advantage Indian Mid Cap Equities The Duration Strategy in Indian Debt Markets Key Take Aways TBNG Philosophy Team TBNG 17. The Duration Strategy in Indian Debt Markets Reducing CAD due to improving trade deficit figures. At the current yield of close to 9% the 10 year G-sec is bound to correct and there in lies an opportunity to benefit from.It is worth noting that the benchmark 10Y government bond yield has closed above 9% level only on 37 occasions out of a total of 2,512 trading sessions in the last ten years - i.e. 1.47% of the time! 18. The Duration Strategy in Indian Debt MarketsYellow line: Tracks m-o-m change in CPI; Purple line: Tracks the contribution of fruits and vegetables to the m-o-m change in CPI CPI is expected to ease over the next couple of months. This would be a major positive trigger for market sentiment. 19. The Duration Strategy in Indian Debt MarketsLocal Factors: FCNR B inflow above initial estimates CPI and WPI are closer to their peak Repo rate likely to be @ 8% by Dec 2013 Improvement in trade data Current Account Deficit Fiscal Deficit RBIs liquidity supportGlobal Factors: Fed tapering risk & its implication for bond yields in the near term EM debt & currency flow Likely inclusion in global bond indices FII sentiment towards Indian Assets G3 Central Banks Guidance*Green color denotes positive sentiment ; * Red color denotes negative sentiment; * Blue color denotes status quo. 20. Talking PointsIndia structural Growth Story Asset class perspective in India Advantage Indian Mid Cap Equities The Duration Strategy in Indian Debt Markets Key Take Aways TBNG Philosophy Team TBNG 21. Key Take Aways India is a rapidly growing and a young economy, with a strong domestic growth story. The Real Estate as an asset class has had a Phenomenal run-up in the past decade, but the cycle now is about to turn and its going to enter into a bear phase. The value of gold has, in rupee terms given terrific returns since the 2008 debacle, but as an asset class, its just a store of value and not a compounding machine to generate inflation adjusted superior returns. The Indian Mid-Caps and Small caps are significantly under valued and offer a great opportunity to generate massive returns. The current yield offers an attractive entry level for investors to enter into for making decent returns. 22. Talking PointsIndia structural Growth Story Asset class perspective in India Advantage Indian Mid Cap Equities The Duration Strategy in Indian Debt Markets Key Take Aways TBNG Philosophy Team TBNG 23. TBNG Philosophy 24. Profile TBNG was established in 2003 when frustration and dissatisfaction with the apparently general quality of product knowledge, customer service and fee transparency amongst the established financial service community led TBNGs CEO, Tarun Birani, to set up a company to address these shortcomings. Since then, TBNG has grown through the support and appreciation of clients who have experienced the difference in TBNGs offerings. Vision2003 2004 2008 2011 2011 2013 Foundation of TBNG Financial Consultants Laid Started Offering Solution Based Services Breached 250 HNI& NRI Relationships Started Offering Personal Financial Planning Services Started Corporate Advisory Desk Managing asset under mgmt of around 100 crore in various asset classes MissionValues IntegrityTo be the preferred and trustworthy destination for managing financial needs.To conduct our business with integrity developing a handsome level of trust and thereby also adhering to ethical practices to accomplish a long term relationship with ClientsTrust Pro-ActiveTo encourage our Employees refine their knowledge base inculcating high level of professionalism with sky limit with direct motive to serve client in a better manner.Professionalism Transparency 25. Private Wealth Management 1. To some extent it is true that earning and managing wealth involves same level of hard work hence we follow systematic wealth management process to help your money work as hard as you. 2. We work with best-of-the-breed products for your Goal achievement by indentifying the right products for you through qualitative and quantitative process. Hybrid Products Alternate ProductsCommoditiesRisk Management ServiceFixed IncomeEquityProducts & ServicesFinancing Services 26. Wealth Management PropositionAdvisory Driven ApproachValue Enhancement Through ResearchQualified TeamContact Ritual Long Term Advisory Driven approach rather than short term transaction driven approach. Thorough research to make sure that investment are up to the mark for identified goals Qualified Team with more than collective 25 years in Industry. Follow 12/4/2 Ritual in which 12 monthly contacts,4 Quarterly reviews and 2 Yearly Personal Reviews Meetings are done. 27. Framework for Asset AllocationA Attitude Perceive risk appetiteS Salience What % of Total financial assets and net worthI Income How much regular income is req. When?S Sophistication Is our client well aware and comfortable buying products advisedT Time For how long are you ready to wait for his investment to be redeemedE Expectations Identify expectation. Transfer the risk of market. 28. Talking PointsIndia structural Growth Story Asset class perspective in India Advantage Indian Mid Cap Equities The Duration Strategy in Indian Debt Markets Key Take Aways TBNG Philosophy Team TBNG 29. Team TBNG Tarun Birani Tarun is the founder of TBNG. He has more than 10 years of experience behind him in the area of Wealth Management. Prior to setting up TBNG he worked with RR Financial Consultants, IL&FS in various capacities. Over the years, Tarun has earned the distinction of pioneering the concept of Wealth Management in India and has built one of the finest teams of professionals which works with the wealthy in India.Hiral Thanawala Hiral carries a vast experience of ten years in Financial planning and research industry. He is a commerce graduate and also done with his CFP examinations. He oversee the Financial Planning vertical at TBNG.Chirag Shah Chirag carries a vast experience of five years in service industry. He is a commerce graduate and pursing II level of CA Final exams . He is passionate about investor education and takes care of product research function. 30. Team TBNG We have put in place Strategic alliances with our domain partners who are specialized in the areas of Taxation, Law, Investment banking. As of today we are associated with several Domain partners whose expertise complements our own , and we would continue to build valuable partnership for our clients. Our partners specialize in the areas of: 1. Law 2. Taxation 3. Investment Banking 4. International Private Banking 31. Thank You