india's agrarian miracle since 2000

Crop Care Federation of India

India’s Agrarian Miracle

Since 2000 India’s Agrarian Miracle Since 2000

Rajju Shroff S.Ganesan

The structural shift that took Indian agriculture to

global supremacy

Jan 2015


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“Indian agriculture has come a long way from being

subsistence to being the one that produces substantial trade

surplus comparable to that of the services sector. With

better strategies, our agricultural trade can easily fetch

higher foreign exchange that can be utilized to financially

support the foreign exchange investments required in other

sectors…….…. India now ranks number two in the world

and is far ahead of the USA in agricultural production”

Rajju Shroff Chairman


S. Ganesan Advisor (Public & Policy Affairs)


“Asia now leads the world in agricultural production.

Unknown to many, the global leaders in food production

are China and India.....India's rich agro-biodiversity and

diet diversity are mutually supportive. India’s agri-horti-

livestock mixed farming is very unique in the world. The

aggregated output/ha of farmland in India is much higher

than in the USA”


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Quotable Quotes

“With the right technology and policies, India could help

feed the world”

- S. Sengupta

The New York Times, June 22, 2008

“India has long been the sleeping giant of global agriculture”

- Deepak Gopinath

Yale global, March 27, 2013

“India has under played its strengths in several key sectors that

could potentially be game changers for the country”

- Barnik C Maitra and Adil Zainubhai

Business Today, Jan 19, 2014

“Contrary to the popular narrative, agriculture has been

transformed in the last 10 years.”

- Agriculture a New Story

Indian Express, April 21, 2014


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Yet, India’s Economic Survey carried no mention to this effect.

In the year 2012, India ranked 2nd globally in agricultural GDP…!

The global ranking by India in the field of agriculture remains

unknown and uncelebrated.


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Key messages in this presentation

Indian farmers are multi-skilled. Our farms are multi product bio factories.

India’s agri-horti-livestock mixed farming methods achieve higher aggregated production/ha than the farming in USA.

India’s international trade in agricultural products fetch better net foreign exchange earnings than our international trade in services.

Horticulture, dairy and inland fish culture drive the growth. They provide round the year revenue and employment.

India is a multiproduct agricultural powerhouse. To be recognized, positioned and promoted accordingly.

The negative narrative about our agriculture must stop.


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Primary purpose of this data based presentation is to change the

negative narrative about Indian agriculture and to fast track further

growth.

Plain-speak…!

Indian agriculture

suffers from

entrenched negative

perception, spread

mainly by foreign

funded environmental

NGOs.

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Such misconceptions

have the potential to

misguide policies and

regulations.

3

Agricultural policies

and regulations rooted

in the past era will be

counter productive in

the present situation.

4 Correcting misconceptions

and understanding present

reality will develop an

enabling environment that

nurtures Indian rural

economy.

5

There is a disturbing

gap between public

perception of the

effects of modern

agriculture and

reality.

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Agriculture: India’s Inherent Strengths

Light

Sunglight is

available round the

year

Land

India has the

largest area in the

world under

agricultural crops:

191 mill.ha (gross)

Irrigated Area

India has the

largest irrigated

area in the world:

90 miil.ha (gross).

Labour

Over 260 million,.

Many work 7 days a

week. Family labour

plays an important

role.

Agriculture’s fundamental requirements : Light, Land, Water, Labour India has all these in abundance.

Besides, Indian industry produces all major

farm inputs: Farm machinery, irrigation

equipment, seeds, fertilizers, pesticides

including those required for post harvest

protection. 7


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Particulars 1970-71 2000-01 2010-11

Number of farm

holdings(Million)

71 119 138

Av.size of holdings (Ha) 2.28 1.33 1.15

Operated area (Mill.Ha) 162 159 159

Anatomy of Indian Agriculture

Source: Agricultural Census 2010-11

In the USA, growth in agriculture led to demise of family farms and

birth of large industrial type farms with inevitable monocropping.

This has not happened in India, due to many reasons – including

cultural.

India’s agricultural production keeps increasing even as average farm

size keeps decreasing..!


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World Agriculture : Then and Now

Year Asia Americas Europe Africa Oceana Total

1970 106.4 53.4 129 23.4 3.8 316

1980 307.8 147.7 275.7 87.5 13.6 832

1990 464.2 229.7 371.6 93.3 14.8 1174

2000 572.1 225.2 202.2 88.9 20.6 1109

2010 1470.8 443.5 332.9 282.6 43.5 2573

2013 1917.2 551.9 387.2 350.7 52.5 3260

Source : Macroeconomics-Agriculture, hunting, forestry, in the world 1 970-2013 based on UN Data, analyzed by www.kushnirs.org

Value : $Bn at current prices

Asia’s maintains a massive lead over the rest now.

China and India – once known for chronic food shortages- are now the

world leaders in agricultural production.

Americas : North America, South America and Mexico

http://www.kushinirs.org/


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World Leaders in Agricultural Production

Year/Rank I II III IV V

1980 Russia China USA India Japan

1990 USA China Russia India Japan

2000 China India USA Japan Brazil

2010 China India USA Indonesia Brail

2013 China (919) India (325) USA (227) Indonesia (125) Brazil (109)

2014(E) China (1036) India (356) USA (192) Nigeria (184) Brazil (125)

Source : 1. Leaders in Agriculture based on UN Data analyzed by www.kushnirs.org 2. 2014 data based on IMF and CIA World Fact book 2014

Numbers show agri GDP in $Bn

India’s agricultural production is now far above the USA that

supplied food grains and cotton under PL 480 in 1960s to tide

over chronic shortage.

Out of top five countries, four are developing countries.

Family farms – mostly small- drive the agricultural growth now.

http://www.kushinirs.org/


Transformation in Indian Agriculture

Green Revolution (1970s) was food

grain centric. Govt. sponsored.

Most needed then.

A self driven revolution spawned

by socio-economic mobility set in

late 1990s. The focus shifted to

horticulture.

High value crops (fruits and

vegetables) and milk now lead

production and consumption.

Improved communication, road

and transport services,

globalization, urbanization,

increasing income & literacy,

innovative cultivation practices

and modern inputs have radically

changed the structure of Indian

agriculture. 11


Rice Wheat Total Fruits Vegetables Total

1991-92 75 60 135 29 59 88

2001-02 93 73 166 43 89 132

2012-13 105 94 199 81 162 243

2013-14 (E) 106 95 201 84 170 254

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Indians now produce & consume more fruits and vegetables than rice & wheat...!

This ensures our “nutritional security” besides food security.

Horticulture is now the growth driver of Indian agriculture.

India is the second largest producer of Fruits & Vegetables in the world.

India: Staple Food Grains vs Fruits & Vegetables (Mill.tons)

Source: Ministry of Agriculture

Staple Food Grains Fruits & Vegetables Year


Country Production (Mill.tons)

World 647

1. China 137

2. India 81

3. Brazil 38

4. USA 27

5. Indonesia 18

Country Production (Mill.tons)

World 1115

1. China 574

2. India 162

3. USA 36

4. Turkey 28

5. Iran 23

Source: India- Handbook on Horticulture Statistics 2014 Data for 2012-13

Fruits Vegetables

Major Producers of Fruits & Vegetables

China and India account for 2/3 of world’s fruits and vegetable production. 13


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India’s Milky Growth


Year

Production

(Mill.Tons)

Percapita Avilability

(Gms/day)

1950-51 17 130

1990-91 54 176

2000-01 81 217

2011-12 127 290

2012-13 132 295

2013-14(PE ) 139 295

Ample labour and

small land base

encourage farmers

in India to practise

dairying as an

occupation

subsidiary to crop

production

-FAO

In India, agrl. waste and by products form cattle feed.

Milk production in India is 30% less expensive than USA.

Size of dairy products industry is $70 bn in India and expected to double by 2020.

India is worlds largest milk producer, followed by the USA.



India’s Fish Production (Mill.tons)

Flourishing aquaculture in AP

and Punjab disproves the

allegation that intensive

agriculture pollutes/harms the

land and waters 15

Inland fish production is almost

double than marine production

now.

Of the 6.13 mill.tons of inland

production, undivided AP

accounted for 2 mill.tons…!

Punjab has the highest fish

productivity of 6560 kgs/ha.

Punjab and AP are known for

intensive agriculture

Fish species are sensitive to

water quality and pollution

Year Marine Inland Total

1970-71 1.08 0.67 1.76

1980-81 1.55 0.89 2.42

1990-91 2.30 1.53 3.83

2000-01 2.81 2.85 5.65

2010-11 3.25 4.98 8.23

2013-14 3.43 6.13 9.57

0

2

4

6

8

Marine

Inland

Value : Mill Tons


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Indian Agriculture’s sub sectors and their share in Agri GDP

India is the only country with robust production in all the sub sectors.

Horticulture and dairy sector account for close to 60%.

Indian horticulture and livestock sectors stimulate rural economy by

providing round the year employment.

Agri-Horti-Livestock farming makes Indian farming systems

qualitatively different and superior.

30%

27%

<40%


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India’s Agrobidiversity

India enjoys unique agrobiodiversity in the world arising mainly from:

Variety of agroecosystems Variety of crop species Variety of livestock & fish species

India’s diet diversity draws substantially from this rich agrobiodiversity. Both are

mutually supportive.

This diversity provides diverse income opportunities too which small family farm

holders effectively make use of.

All these make our farming more robust, resilient, productive and stable.

Low cost mixed farming systems in India have transformed India into world leader

in agricultural production.

Aggregated agricultural production value/ha in India is higher than in USA that

practices industrial type farming.


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Rice

106 Mill.Tons

3

Vegetables

170 Mill.Tons

1

India – Top Three Foods (in 2013-14)

Milk

139 Mill.Tons

2


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Year Agri. GDP

Export Import Trade Surplus

2000 101 5.95 3.99 1.96

2011 321 34.49 22.55 11.94

2012 307 42.39 25.66 16.73

2013 325 47 24.41 22.57

Source: 1. WTO International Trade Statistics 2. UN Data, www.kushnirs.org

INDIA CHINA

Agriculture in India & China : An Analysis

Value : $Bn

Year Agri. GDP

Export Import Trade Deficit

2000 181 16.38 19.54 -(3.16)

2011 735 64.61 144.72 -(80.11)

2012 830 16.17 156.82 -(90.65)

2013 919 70.15 165.45 -(95.30)

China is worlds largest producer of food. Yet, net importer of food.

Dietary habits make a lot of difference.

Milk is main dietary source of protein in India. It is meat in China.

In India, vegetarian food is predominant even in non-vegetarian households.

http://www.kushnirs.org


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Particulars India China

Gross cultivated area (Mill.ha) 191 167

Of this, irrigated area (Mill.ha) 90 63

Av.annual rainfall (mm) 1083 645

Av. Size of farm holdings(Ha) 1.15 0.6

People engaged in agriculture(Mill) 262 300

Agricultural GDP in 2013($ bn) 325 919

Global rank in agricultural production Second First

Major contributors to Agri GDP Horticulture, dairy Meat, horticulture

Use of fertilizers (Mill.tons) 27 58

Pesticides use ($bn at retail level) 3 14

Adoption of hybrid seeds Poor to medium High

GM crops Cotton Cotton, Corn, Tomato, Sweet pepper, Papaya and Poplar

Chinese agriculture technology is driven with intensive use of modern inputs.

Agriculture in India and China. Fast Facts


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India: Consumers Expenditure on Major Food Categories

(2013)

Food Category

Size ($Bn)

Growth Percentage

(2007-13)

Vegetables & Fruits 101 53

Milk, Milk Products & Eggs 74.10 69

Cereals 60.60 9

Fish & Sea food 21.90 74

Oils & Fats 14.90 48

Meat 13.70 69

Sugar 13.20 45

Other Foods 13.20 42

Total 312.60

Source : Euromonitor quoted in USDA – GAIN Report Number : IN4120, Dated : 12/29/2014

In terms of value, vegetables and fruits lead the pack with 1/3rd of the

total followed by milk and eggs.

Among the non-vegetarian foods, fish ranks first.


India’s Agri Exports : The Fastest Growing in the World

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Source: https://www.thedollarbusiness.com/indias-agri-exports-fastest-growing-in-the-world-usda/

India ranks fifth in global agri exports. (WTO – International Trade Statistics – 2014)


Year Exports Imports Net Earnings

2010 123 115 8

2011 137 124 13

2012 141 127 14

2013 151 125 26

Source: WTO International Trade Statistics

Commercial Services Agricultural Products

India’s Trade Surplus ($bn)

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Year Exports Imports Net Earnings

2010 23 17 6

2011 35 23 12

2012 42 26 16

2013 47 24 23

Value : $Bn

India in 2013 earned $26 bn from $276 bn trade in commercial

services. Whereas agricultural trade of $71 bn fetched as much

as $23 bn trade surplus.

With better focus and facilitation, India’s net earnings from

agricultural trade can be higher than trade in services…!

Such export led revenues will bring in greater rural prosperity.


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“Indian agricultural system is a model of sustainable agriculture as it is predominantly a mixed crop-livestock farming system” -Economic Survey of India 2013-14, p.148

Projecting this “unique, low cost, mixed

crop-livestock farming system” globally will

help position India as an agriculturally

vibrant economy.

Material gains from this promotion would

add to rural prosperity and reduce the

urban-rural inequality.

Needed : Fresh and forward looking strategies with total

disconnect with the past.


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For further information

“Agriculture not only gives riches to a nation, but the only riches she can call her own” - Samuel Johnson (1709-1784)

THANK YOU

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