indian rupee: q2cy11 - karvy commodities...5 million dollars. the volume in mcx-sx gains close to...

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INDIAN RUPEE: Q2CY11

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CONTENTS:

Recommendations pg 3

Indian Rupee: The Yellow Pages pg 4

Union Budget: Another Balancing Act pg5

External Liabilities: Foreign Exchange Reserves pg7

Macro Economic Factors pg 9

Derivatives and Forwards pg11

Corelation pg12

a. Indian rupee Vs Crude oil

b. Indian rupee Vs Nifty

Peer- correlation pg13

Outlook pg15

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Fundamental Review:

The rupee is likely to strengthen further in 2011. Higher interest rates in India

would always allure investors to invest in this country, thereby adding to

capital flows. Moreover the government is expected to further ease out rules

on foreign inflows. The government has already raised the FDI limit. The

Chairman of the PM's Economic Advisory Council, Mr. C. Rangarajan, thinks

that India can absorb US$150 billion of foreign capital inflows every year.

Moreover, the government is shying away from any regulatory intervention to

manage the rupee, as sky-rocketing oil prices would further increase

inflationary pressures if the currency weakens.

Recommendations:

Scenario I: SELL IN THE RANGE OF 45.15-45.20

TARGETTING 43.68 and then 43.21 WITH STOP LOSS

ABOVE 45.60

Scenario II: BUY IN THE RANGE OF 43.15-43.20

TARGETTING 45.18 and then 45.21 WITH STOP LOSS

BELOW 42.00

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Indian Rupee: Yellow Leaves

The first quater of the year brought in more

bad news than good. The FII’s have been on

a selling spree since the start of the year,

they have pumped out US$657 million till

end of March 2011 from the Equity

markets. The rupee has still been extremely

resilient in the face of adversity. In the

quarter ended March 2011, the rupee has

appreciated by 0.56% while the Sensex is

down over 6% and oil is higher by 14%.

The resilience of the rupee has defied

norms as weak equity markets and strong

oil prices are negative for the currency.

Equities have fallen largely on the back of FII equity sales. The rupee-FII sales correlation is high, as

seen by the fact that the rupee gained 3.9% from lows of Rs 46.65 to the US dollar in mid-2010 on

the back of strong FII flows.

The FIIs brought in US$ 29.3 billion in

calendar 2010. As for 2011 YTD the FII’s

have been net sellers of $637 million.

Given that India imports more than 70% of

its oil requirements, rising oil prices

increase the import bill, leading to a

widening trade deficit and pressurizing the

current account deficit as well. However,

recent trade data suggest that oil prices are

yet to impact the trade deficit as the deficit

has steadily come down from over US$ 9.2

billion to US$ 8.1billion in the present year.

The high oil price impact will be felt in the

coming months and the trade deficit is bound to increase on higher oil import bill. The concerns in

the Middle east and Libya have constantly kept the Crude oil prices high.

The rupee appreciated by 0.56% against the dollar in this quarter—against a fall of 0.37% in the

previous quarter. Gains of this quarter of 0.56% have been much lower as compared to 3.87% in

the same period last year. Overall, the currency strengthened by 4.46% in FY10 compared to an

appreciation of 2.03% in FY09.

The penetration of currency futures in the market is noteworthy. Both the NSE and the MCX-SX

witnessed a spectacular rise in currency futures trading (USDINR). The volume of trade on the NSE

surged close to 300% in 2010—from US $1,100 thousand million dollars to US $4,530 thousand

Figure 1: USDINR price movement in Q1CY2011

Source: Bloomberg & KSBL Research

Figure 2: USDINR monthly price movement


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million dollars. The volume in MCX-SX gains close to 600% from US$930 thousand million dollars

to US$6,640 thousand million dollars. Moreover, in Q1 CY2011, the volumes in the NSE grew by

203% to US$3,191 thousand million dollars. Meanwhile, the volumes in MCX-SX grew by 265% to

US$3,431 thousand million dollars. In the end of last quarter Currency options were also

introduced by NSE and USE. The turnover has increased from 3,05,401 contracts to 38,64,680

contracts on a daily basis. The daily turnover is Rs5104.32 Cr as compared to 1383 Cr when it

started last year. In just four months since launch, daily average volumes in currency options on the

NSE is about 20% of the daily currency futures volumes , which were launched about two years ago.

This is despite the fact that Currency Futures trading is allowed on four pairs while Currency

Option trading is allowed only in one pair i.e. USD/INR. Further open interest in currency options is

already about 75% higher than that in the currency futures segment. The growth can be attributed

to the steps taken by National Stock Exchange (NSE) by increasing the OI for both the corporate and

the banks. The corporate can take position now up to 6% of the open interest in the market and for

the banks the same limit has been increased to 15% of the OI.

UNION BUDGET 2011-2012: Yet Another Balancing Act

As every year the most sought after event

in the first quarter is the Budget. This year

the budget was tabled by Mr Pranab

Mukherjee. The focus of this year’s budget

was on controlling food inflation and in

turn bringing the economy back to a higher

growth trajectory. Food inflation which is

primarily cased by supply side had

declined to 8.7% from a high of 20.2% in

February last year. The high inflation has

forced the Central Bank to raise the

primary rates for the eighth time in a row

sending the Repo and Reverse Repo Rates

to 6.75 % and 5.75% respectively. The

biggest concern still remains Crude Oil, if

the prices continue to rise both inflation and the Fiscal deficit would be largely affected. The budget

has paid more attention to infrastructure as; infrastructures along with social services have been

given the highest allocation with 85% of the total budget. The agriculture sector also received good

amount of allocation. The Indian economy has showed remarkable resilience and gross domestic

product (GDP) is estimated to grow at 8.6 percent in 2011-12 in real terms. The Union Budget 2011

was presented at a time when the Indian economy had rebounded to its pre crisis growth

trajectory. The Finance Minister stated in his budget speech that the major focus for 2011-12 would

be to build infrastructure for the agriculture sector and approved 15 Mega Food Parks during 2011-

12, besides sanctioning 24 new cold storage facilities and to increase storage capacity by 4 million

tonnes. Another major focus of Budget 2011 was investment in infrastructure. Funds allocated to

this sector amounted to Rs 214,000 crore (US$ 47.48 billion), which is an increase of 23.3 per cent

Figure 3: Budget (Plan) Allocation


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over 2010-11 and amounts to around 49 per cent of the total plan allocation. Other measures to

enhance the flow of funds to the sector included increase in the foreign institutional investor (FII)

limits for investment in corporate bonds and provision of tax free status to infrastructure bonds.

Tax rates applicable on interest paid on overseas borrowing in case of infrastructure debt funds

were reduced to 5 per cent instead of the regular withholding tax rate of 20 per cent. This has made

it clear that infrastructure development is a pre-requisite for manufacturing and agricultural sector

growth. On the whole the budget was on line with expectations and it could be called a balancing

act.

INFLATION: Playing Spoilsport

High inflation has been the key

driver for the RBI's recent policy

moves. India's food and fuel

inflation eased in late-February,

but remained at elevated levels,

maintaining the case for further

monetary tightening to keep a lid

on headline inflation. India's

food price index rose to 9.52% in

the week to February 26, as

prices of vegetables, potatoes

and rice inclined. The fuel price

index climbed up 9.48% in the

same week from 12.56% a week

earlier. Headline inflation in

January was at 8.23%, well

above the RBI's perceived comfort zone of 4-5% and compared with its end-March target of 7%.

With Middle East and Libya concerns, crude oil prices are near a two-and-half year high. The

Central Banks across Asia are under pressure to act as fears that these costs will fuel broader

inflationary pressures in the Asian economy which would result in hampering the economic

growth. The RBI has raised the primary rates for the eighth time in a row from beginning of last

year sending the Repo and Reverse Repo Rates to 6.75 % and 5.75% respectively. The Central bank

is expected to raise rates in the coming months if the inflation is not brought under control.

MONETARY POLICY

In context to the monetary policy the RBI has been very busy for the whole of last year. The RBI has

resorted to rate hikes at every instance due to the ever so rising inflation. The food and the WPI

inflation have been on a steady rise even after repeated attempts of the RBI to curb inflation. The

growth estimates have also been revised from 9.5 to 8.7 percent due to the regular rate hikes. Even

though the Food Articles WPI YoY prices have declined since January 2011, the prices of many daily

use food items continued to remain high reflecting structural demand-supply imbalances. Fuel

Figure 4: Indian Inflation Monthly


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prices remain high, reflecting the global trend, with potential for further rise. The acceleration that

is spread across manufacturing activities, indicate that producers are able to pass on higher input

prices to consumers. The rising global commodity prices particularly oil is a major contributor for

higher than expected inflation. As domestic fuel prices are yet to adjust fully to global prices, risks

to inflation remain clearly on the upside; the demand-side pressures are expected to continue in

both the non food and food items. Measures to increase agricultural productivity, particularly in

items facing structural supply-demand imbalances, will contribute to easing food inflation over

time.

External Liabilities vis-à-vis Foreign Exchange Reserves

The accretion of foreign exchange

reserves needs to be seen in the light

of total external liabilities of the

country. India’s International

Investment Position which is a

summary record of the stock of

country’s external financial assets.

The foreign exchange reserves form

an integral part of any developing

economy.

FX Reserves

The global financial turmoil and the cut in interest rates by major economies led to a significant

decrease in the developed country’s forex reserves. The developing economies have however

benefited from this move. Interest rates in many countries—like the US, the UK, the Euro-zone, and

Japan have plunged to very low levels in the last one year and many of them are at their historical

lows. Due to this the foreign investors have pumped in lot of money into both the Equity and Debt

markets. India has been one of the major benefiter of this move due to its regular rate hikes; making

it one of the highest yielding assets hub in Asia. The overall Forex reserves rose by 3.63% to

US$308 billion by end of March. This is the highest level seen since March 2009.

Economy Interest rates

Australia 4.25%

Canada 0.25%

EMU 1.00%

Japan 0.10%

England 0.50%

US 0.25%

Figure 5: India’s Total Reserves


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The Reserve Bank of India states that the foreign currency assets include the effect of appreciation

or depreciation on non-US currencies such as euro, the pound and the yen held in reserves.

Macro Economic Factors

The most important factor shaping in today's global economy is the process of globalization. Indian

companies are moving in search of low-cast markets, technology is driving growth in production

and competition is becoming more intense. A second factor is the fast growth in private capital

flows, mainly short-term flows by banks and financial institutions, portfolio flows by mutual funds

and pension funds and foreign direct investment into India. A third factor is the increasing share of

India and other emerging market economies in world trade.

The outburst in communication technology has led to greater integration of Indian financial

markets across the world. The impact of these changes could be felt from the extremely buoyant

activity in Indian stock markets. Currently FII investment is at $ 26.5 Billion compared to $ 2 Billion

in 2001. The stock market has benefited from these investments as the Sensex is trading at all time

highs. SEBI has put in place appropriate guidelines and controls to regulate the markets in tune

with the changing environment and attendant risks.

Indian GDP

The RBI raised the GDP growth projection

for the current year to 8.9 % from 8.5 %

projected earlier. Moreover, the growth

rate is expected to remain constant for

2011-12. The IMF expects the Indian

economy to grow at 7.75% in 2010-11 and

8.5% in 2011-12, due to expected increase

in private consumption and investment

boosted by robust corporate profits, rising

business confidence, and favourable

financing conditions.

Particulars (in USD MIO) Mar-11 Dec-10 % Change

Foreign Current Asset 273845 267814 2.51%

Special Drawing Rights 4539 4872 -6.83%

Gold Reserves 22972 22470 2.23%

Total FOREX Reserves 308203 297334 3.63%

Figure 6: India’s GDP Q/Q


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Indian Industrial Production (IIP)

The economic recovery gained

momentum in the last quarter due to good

commercial investments. India's

industrial output is gradually rising after

it hit a low in December 2010, the

government’s rising of benchmark

interest rates have not helped the

corporate as the borrowing costs have

raised. According to the data released by

the Central Statistical Organization, The

industrial production rose to 3.7% in

January from a revised 2.6% in December

2010, because of continued growth in the

manufacturing sector and low base effect. This is however way below last years figures for the same

period which were at 15.1%. The Indian IIP had hit a high of 18% in December 2009; since then it

has been on a decline and hit a low of 2.5% exactly a year later. IIP is a major contributor to Indian

economic growth and government should take some strict steps to bring down inflation and high

borrowing costs for corporate; this will only be possible if the benchmark lending rates are brought

lower.

Fiscal Deficit

The finance minister, Mr. Pranab Mukherjee, expects the fiscal deficit to be at 5.5% of the GDP for

FY11. The total expenditure is expected to be at Rs11.09 lakh crore while the total tax and non-tax

revenues are estimated to be at Rs6.82 lakh crore for FY11. The fiscal deficit is expected to decrease

when compared to that of FY10 which was revised to 6.9%.

Figure 7: India’s Industrial Production


Year Fiscal Deficit

(A: Actual, E:

Estimated)

2008-09 7.8% A

2009-10 6.9% A (revised)

2010-11 5.5% E

2011-12 4.8% E

2012-13 4.2% E

2013-14 3.0% E

Figure 8: Fiscal deficit (in crores)


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Although the government’s measures came at a right time for the rapidly slowing economy, the

government spending may be permanently increased.The government’s estimated borrowing of

Rs5.22 lakh crore for fiscal 2010-11—higher than the past year’s Rs4.01 lakh crore—to meet the

shortfall. However, the report of the 13th Finance Commission said that the fiscal deficit would come

down gradually over the next few years due to moderate spending, especially on higher wages and

unemployment benefits as well as a modest lowering in the government's interest burden.

Credit Policy

The central bank has been hawkish for a long time now. The RBI has raised rates for eighth time

now in a year’s time taking both the Repo and Reverse Repo rates up to 6.75% and 5.75%

respectively. The RBI is very worried about the rising inflation which is still at high levels of 8.31%.

The ever rising crude oil prices and the supply constraints have been the major contributors to

inflation. The RBI is widely expected to further raise both the repo and reverse repo rates until the

inflation cools to nominal levels of 4-5%.

Derivatives and Forwards:

Offshore Trading

Currencies also show a wide dispersion in

the geography of trading. The central bank

defines the location of a trade. Some

currencies trade largely in their home

market. The exchange rate of the rupee is set

by the interbank market. Since 2000, this

has been managed by the Reserve Bank of

India and is classified as a managed float

regime. The NDF market is an offshore

market to trade and hedge in currencies of

countries wherein there is no full

convertibility (both capital account and

Current Account). Few of the NDF market

traded currencies are Indian Rupee, Chinese

Yuan, Philippine Peso, Taiwan Dollar, and Korean Won. NDFs are distinct from deliverable forwards

as the NDF s trade outside the countries of the corresponding currencies.NDF is a Non-Deliverable

Forward contract which is settled in cash and only in US Dollars. The difference between the Spot

rate and the outright NDF rate is arrived on an agreed notional amount and settled between the two

counterparties. The trading center for Indian NDF is in Singapore London and New York.

Figure 9: USDINR Trading Breakup


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Onshore and NDF Forwards

Figure 10: 1 Month Onshore vs 1 Month NDF Premium Q1CY2011


The premiums on the forwards market fell due to decrease in participation, as investors are shifting

to futures market as a more reliable source of currency valuation. The one-month onshore forwards

premium fell to 0.24 paisa in February 2010 from 0.32 paisa in the corresponding period last year.

On the other hand, the one-month NDF premiums remained low in the range of 0.12-0.23 paisa.

This decreased the arbitrage opportunities—wherein investors buy in NDF and sell at on-shore

markets to earn riskless profits. Due to higher participation in both the markets the Futures and

NDF’s the difference in premiums spread have reduced drastically.

Rupee vs. Crude Oil

After a subdued 2010 oil has

rebounded in the first quarter of

2011. With the growing concerns of

supplies in Middle East and North

Africa crude hit a 21 month high of

108.25 on Nymex. This has caused

crude to gain its highest QoQ with 17

percent gain. On the other hand the

rupee has stayed subdued during

this period with a marginal gain of

0.34%. The correlation between the

rupee and Crude oil is relatively high

as strong crude oil prices are always

negative for the currency. But in the

quarter gone by we have seen the rupee appreciate even though crude is trading at 20 month highs.

The rupee has not followed the trend maybe because the domestic oil prices have still not adjusted

Figure 11: Indian Rupee Vs Crude Oil Q1CY2011


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completely to the global prices. If Crude continues to remain on the boil sooner than later we may

see the rupee adjusting to the high prices; which can make the rupee depreciate further.

Rupee vs. S&P Nifty

Across the emerging world,

currencies have played a major

role in forecasting the stock

market trends. After seeing huge

inflows from the FII desk in the

year 2010; the flows have been

on the negative side in the first

quarter of 2011. They have been

net sellers of US $617 Million till

date. The Nifty has suffered due

the huge selling by FII’s as it’s

down by 5% in the first quarter.

The FII – Equity markets

correlation is high given that nifty had bounced 13 % from September 2010 to December 2010 as

the FII’s pumped in US $3.4Bn during the period. In the quarter gone by the Nifty has fallen from

6,134 to 5,613 a fall of more than 5%. But for the rupee the rise in the quarter has surprised many

as this rise has gone against the trend; because weakening Equity markets have always been

negative for the rupee. The Rupee-FII sales correlation is high, as seen by the fact that the rupee

gained 3.9% from lows of Rs 46.65 to the US dollar in mid-2010 on the back of strong FII flows. In

the first quarter of this year the rupee has appreciated by 0.34 % from 44.77 to 44.60. The rupee

has been defiant throughout the quarter going against the trend and correlation with the domestic

equity markets.

The Peer Co-relation

Currency Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1-2011

Indian Rupee -3.6 3.2 -3.8 -0.37 -0.34

Singapore Dollar -0.43 0.01 -5.93 -2.5 -1.77

Chinese Yuan 0.02 -0.65 -1.32 -1.21 -0.89

Korean Won -2.55 8.03 -7.07 -1.18 -2.13

Malaysian Ringgit -4.68 -0.78 -4.83 0.75 -1.32

Thailand Baht -3.06 -0.31 -6.5 -0.96 0.8

The rupee is left behind far from its Asian peers in this quarter’s performance as the rupee failed to

follow fundamentals and remained in a small range through the first quarter of 2011. It had a mere

appreciation of 0.34%. The top performer was the Korean Won which appreciated 2.13%. Along

with India, Korean Central bank has also raised its benchmark interest rates to counter the rising

Figure 1: Fiscal deficit (in crores) Q1CY2011


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inflation; their rates now stand at 3%. The second best performance was given by the Singaporean

Dollar which appreciated 1.77%. If we leave out the Thailand baht, all major Asian currencies have

gained in the first quarter which indicates investor’s belief that emerging Asian economies will

recover steadily compared to the developed nations.

Indian Rupee: Prospects The Indian economy grew at a steady average rate of 8.3% over the past 4 years. The raising of

the limit in FDI investments and the continuous inflow of funds by the FII’s in the past 4 years

reconfirm the steady growth prospects of India

Despite the global recession, India established itself as the world's second "fastest" growing

major economy in 2010. In addition, China overtook the US as India's largest trade partner in

2009-10

India is the second most populous country in the world, with a population of over 1 billion.

Moreover, one-third of the population is below 18 years of age. It is the only country in the

world where the size of the working population will increase along with increase in market for

consumer goods, hence giving India a huge advantage over the other emerging markets

The economic liberalization and the perfect competition market, the high standard of living and

per capita income, the development of medical facilities and infrastructure, are great reasons

for India’s emergence as a favoured destination for investments.

India has developed significant employment opportunities for the working population of

around 90 million which would offer a considerable potential market for manufacturers and

retailers

Risk Factors Rising inflation is the major concern for India as an investment destination. This potential

inflationary pressure may cause further rate tightening in the key interest rates, and may also

weigh down on the GDP growth in future

The rising Crude oil prices will always pose a threat to the Indian economy as it imports 70% of

its oil needs. Crude oil has given a sharp rise in the first quarter of 2011 as supply constraints

from the Middle East and North Africa are effected after the social unrest in these regions

As India is an emerging market, the economy and the value of the rupee is vulnerable to the

fluctuations, pertaining to exports, imports and other industrial developments

The strength in rupee limits the profitability of Indian exports. Overall, the current account

deficit is likely to narrow from 2.4% of GDP in 2010 to 0.5% of GDP by 2013

Poor infrastructure throughout the country is an impediment for business development in

many parts of India

The sustenance of economic growth is still a concern for India as the concerns of the global

financial crisis persist. Although the fiscal deficit is expected to fall to 4.5% of the GDP, it is still

a cause for concern. The widening fiscal deficit adds to the pressure for further monetary

tightening

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Outlook:

Going by the way the rupee has performed over the last quarter it has become very difficult to

predict which way the rupee will actually end up. The rising inflation has forced the RBI to keep

raising rates; this has affected the investment and the corporate growth as seen in the decline in the

IIP. The government borrowings have also been drastically affected with the rise in Fiscal deficit,

the starting of new schemes like NAREGA have also brought the governments expenditure on the

higher side.

The government is aiming to manage foreign capital flows and to promote higher exports, which in

turn would increase the currency flow in the economy. Moreover, India is set to be the most sought

after destination for investment as it is one of the fastest growing economies not only in the Asian

region but worldwide.

The rupee is likely to strengthen further in 2011. Higher interest rates in India would always allure

investors to invest in this country, thereby adding to capital flows. Moreover the government is

expected to further ease out rules on foreign inflows. The government has already raised the FDI

limit. The Chairman of the PM's Economic Advisory Council, Mr. C. Rangarajan, thinks that India can

absorb US$150 billion of foreign capital inflows every year. Moreover, the government is shying

away from any regulatory intervention to manage the rupee, as sky-rocketing oil prices would

further increase inflationary pressures if the currency weakens.

On the global front the US is still not clear what steps it will take once the quantitative easing (QE2)

gets over in June of this year. The step to pump in cash might have helped the US economy to

recover little bit but it has also caused a huge debt on the US government which can have drastic

effects in the long run. The decision of the US Federal bank (FOMC) to keep the rates unchanged

from the past 1 year hasn’t helped the US cause as investors are dumping the US debt and looking

for higher yielding assets else where. This could keep the greenback under some pressure for the

shorter term; at least till the US decides on the QE2.

Given the above mentioned facts, one would say that the outlook for India is hopeful. India is likely

to be favored investment destinations in 2011. Although India will benefit from the recovery in the

global economy, surging food prices and the resultant high food inflation will remain a cause for

concern.

Overall, we expect the rupee to appreciate in the short term. However, it is expected to shed

some gains in the long term, as the dollar is expected to strengthen after 2 years of the global

recession. The rupee is expected to remain range bound in the long term.

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Technical Analysis: The Indian rupee

currently trading at

44.49 levels is

witnessing a sharp

pullback after some

relentless selling .The

long term trend has

been down as it trades

below the 200 day

exponential moving

average. (which is

currently at 45.26

levels).Considering the

swing range 52.13-

39.06 on the quarterly

time period chart the

rupee is getting closer

to the 61.8% retracement level of 44.10 which could act as strong support . For the last 4 quarters

the rupee has been trading in a stable range of 44.0000-47.7500 levels. Also witnessed on the

quarterly chart is the fact that the closing price on a QoQ basis for the rupee has been similar or has

been very close to

quarterly open price

suggesting indecision

among the traders

about the trend of the

rupee .The same was

replicated on the

quarterly chart with a

doji and then a

gravestone doji

candlestick in the last

two quarters. Hence a

sideways move was

seen for the last 2

quarters i.e. the last 6

months. Considering

the above fact. It could

also strongly imply that

the rupee could be

trading near the support zone. A reversal in the short term could be seen only if prices take support

closer to 44.16 levels and a possible bounce could be expected from those levels. In such a scenario

of a bounce from support levels could propel the rupee to witness a sharp pullback to 44.80 and

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then 45.20 levels. The Average directional index indicator (a.k.a the ADX)(when applied on the

quarterly chart) is currently treading at 27 levels with the DMI+ line still maintaining its positive

crossover over the DMI- line also supporting the fact that the recent fall in the rupee could be

attributed to the fact that it is in a cycle of a pullback/retracement of its longer term swing values

(52.13-39.06). However looking at the monthly chart it is clearly observed that the rupee is trading

closer to the upper end of the down sloping channels resistance level. As a result of which the rupee

could face stiff resistance as it approaches the upper trend line resistance level which is closer to

45.15-45.20 levels.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK: We could expect the rupee to trade higher initially to test 45.10-45.20

levels and expect it to decline from those levels .Support are at 44.10 and then 43.70 levels.

RECOMMENDATION: - SELL IN THE RANGE OF 45.15-45.20 TARGETTING 43.68 and then 43.21

WITH STOP LOSS ABOVE 45.60

BUY IN THE RANGE OF 43.15-43.20 TARGETTING 45.18 and then 45.21 WITH STOP LOSS BELOW

42.00

Disclaimer

The information and views presented in this report are prepared by Karvy Stock Broking Limited. The information contained herein is

based on our analysis and up on sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness

thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it.

The investments discussed or recommended in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own

investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they

believe necessary. While acting upon any information or analysis mentioned in this report, investors may please note that neither Karvy

nor any person connected with any associated companies of Karvy accepts any liability arising from the use of this information and views

mentioned in this document. The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in the

above-mentioned companies from time to time. Every employee of Karvy and its associated companies are required to disclose their

individual stock holdings and details of trades, if any, that they undertake. The team rendering corporate analysis and investment

recommendations are restricted in purchasing/selling of shares or other securities till such a time this recommendation has either been

displayed or has been forwarded to clients of Karvy.

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