india on the move [being serialized, sl 03, our economic performance].doc

8/14/2019 INDIA ON THE MOVE [being serialized, sl 03, our Economic Performance].doc

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Our Economic Performance

Our current levels of affluence visible in cities and towns and all our efforts at eradication of poverty in

the country are anchored to the strength of the economy. Let us have a close look at it. Irrespective

of the current dip in our economic performance , it should be interesting to take a look at our macro

score card , for some relevant parameters.

Our Growth Rate Y!" #$%

&'''-())) *.+'

())).())& .3

())&.())( +.+(

())(.())3 3.''

())3.()) .)/

()).())+ /.'(

())+.())/ '.

())/.())* '.+*

())*.()) '.3(

()).())' /.*(

())'.()&) .+'

()&).()&& '.3(

()&&.()&( /.(& 0ource 1 %lanning 2ommission

()&(.()&3 +.))


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OUR GDP %age

)

(

-

/

.

&)

&(

&'''-))

()))-

)&

())&-

)(

())(-

)3

())3-

)

())-

)+

())+-

)/

())/-

)*

())*-

).

()).-

)'

())'-

&)

()&)-

&&

()&&-

&(

()&(-()&3

Does it look like if all is lost, or it is a dip that might correct sooner or later?


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ere is an interesting view point on our current dip in the economic performance. ! very wellresearched and statistically validated article, 45iracle of India4s 6egative #rowth4 by 0hri 0ur7it 0 8halla, a

well known economist, in the Indian 9press of :une &3, ()&3 , is worth a serious look. #iven below please

find one relevant e9cerpt.

;> In other

words some thing else happened, in addition to bad monetary policy that helped collapse the Indian

economy. That something else was the CAG & its weak and misguided analysis which contributed largely,

to policy paralysis.

Our Foreign Exchange Reserves

5ost of us would recall the precarious situation that the country had landed in &'') in this respect,

when plane load?s@ of our gold had to be shipped out or were about to be shipped out, which was the

immediate cause for the launch of some welcome economic liberaliAation policies.


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-3/-

Y!" Our BO"I#6 C2!6# "eserves D billion E0 F G

&'+)-+& &.'

&'&-( .&'-+ +.'

&'*. /.(

&''.') 3.'

&'').'& +.

&''3.' &'.3

&''/-'* (/.

&'''-)) 3.)

())(-)3 *+.

())+-)/ &+&./

())-)' (+(.)

()&&-&( ('.()&(-&3 ('+./ 0ource 1 internet, 0tatistics 3'*


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Does it look like if the ship is about to sink ?


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7/27

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Let us scan the above track record J

Kould you say that following macro trends stand out J


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-)-

Our lia0ilit/ against interesthas hovered around the figure of up to ())3-), has come

down below thereafter ? 3.'( in ())-)+ and down to 3.) in ()&&-&(@.

Our investment in defencehas hovered around the fig of ( of #$% up to ()+-)/ and has

come below ( thereafter ?&.( in ())/-)* and &.&+ in ()&&-&(@

Our investment in su0sidieshas hovered around the fig of & of #$%, e9cept for four /ears

of &'')-'&, ())-)', ())'-&) = ()&&-&(, when it has touched ( above. !s against this, one

comes across investment in subsidies being mentioned around &+ of #$%.

Our investment in develo1ment Planshas hovered around fig of of #$%. It has been

below for si9 years from &''+-'/ to ()))-)& and in ())+-)/ = ())/-)*.

Do these facts paint a really 'ery gloomy picture of our national balance sheet?


9/27

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Our 1roduction of steel

0teel output is the foundation on which most development initiatives rest upon, be it for building of

roads and bridges or be it for housing or be it for the cars and tractors or be it for the manufacture of

defense related infrastructure or be it the humble safety pins.

Y!" BI6I0$ 0


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OUR F232#4ED #5EE6 OU5PU5

)

&)

()

3)

)

+)

/)

*)

.)

')

&'+)-+& &'/)-/& &'*)-*& &'.)-.& &'')-'& ()))-)& ()&)-&& ()&&-&(

7illion7etric5onnes

In Beb &'+', when I witnessed $r "a7endra %rasad, the first %resident of India inaugurating the &st

8last Burnace of the %ublic 0ector 0teel %lants at 8hilai, our output was still &.) 5illion


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!nd can you forget that the largest steel maker of the Korld, Lakshmi 5ittal and one and the only

one, "attan


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--

Y!" I60

&'*&3/)

&'/)+)))

&'*)&+)))

&')

(*)))

&'')/*)))

()))'))))

())+&&+)))

()&)&/*)))

()&&&*3)))

()&3 (/&3)


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appro9 figs

)

+))))

&)))))

&+))))

()))))

(+))))

& ( 3 - + / * . ' &) & & &( & 3 & - & + & / & * & . & ' ( )

&+, &.* &,* &'* &&* (*** (**) (** (* (*

23#5866ED 98P8925: for PO;ER GE3ER852O3 in 23D28 - 7 ;

0ource J


14/27


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0ince #lobal warming is a hot topic and a topic of concern these days, it is worth mentioning that the

coal based generation that has a high carbon foot print = contributes more to this phenomenon, is at present

at +3.3 of the total capacity in India.>.. >


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%ower crisis has become such an overwhelming symbol of mis-governance , it has put other vital

issues in shade. 6o India, no Pashmir, no 0arb7it-0anaullah, no army, some terrorism and bit of !merica. ;

ri 0hekhar #upta in #$% per headin "s at2O60

the decade@

BOO$#"!I60

BOO$ #"!I60

?cr@ increaseover &) yrs

?cr "s @ ?cr "s @ 5ln tons Pgs per head per mth?age increase over &) yrs@ ?age increase over &) yrs@

&'+)-+& 3/.& &),)3/ (,' (,*',/& ,!,+ +). .,

&'/)-/&

3.' (&./ &*,)'3

? 3'./@,&),(*' ',3/ ?().*@ (

&+./

&+./ ?33@

&'*)-*& +. (+.' ,3(&)

?&).@+,',*/*

&),*/(?&+.+@

&).&/.+

&/.+?/@

&')-& /.3 (./ &,3/,3())3

?&*.3@*,',+)/ &&,/'& ?./@ &('./

&+. ?-@

?-@

&'')-'& ./ (3.' +,3&,&/,(/

?(&(.'@&3,*,''

&+,'33?3/.(@

&*/.

&*. ??&)@

?&)@

()))-)& &)(. (&.+ &','&,' &',3** (3,(,** ((,*') &'/. &+.' ?-'@


17/27

( ?()*./@ ?3.)@ ?-'@

()&)-&& &(& ,.,*(,//,'/

*)&!,(,

?().@',3*,))/

+*!'*(


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Bood grain production rose from &&.* kgs per head per annum in &'+)-+& to &*. in &'')-'&,

perhaps reflecting the impact of our #reen "evolution. It has come down to &/. kgs per head per

annum in ()&)-&& at a much higher le'el of population. gs 1er head 1er month=

-+)-

8 #ilent 5ransformation


19/27

Khat is not well understood, though, is why this happened. >>..


20/27

then sell it to the consumer ? 7ob for the store owner@. >>. In fact poultry farming seems to

have created more person days of work between ())+-()&) than 6"#!>>>>>>.. the

silent transformation is on.4

9cerpts from, ; ope lies Low 4 by 6eelkanth 5ishra, Indian Muity 0trategist for

2redit 0uisse, published in


21/27

#ome would come to m/ motherreuesting loan of atta ? rice else will gohungr/ at night

9ultivation using 0ulloc>s

6iterac/ around )%

Po1ulation around )*

6iterac/ around ,)% - one girl a ualified medical doctor! another doing798

Po1ulation around **

Last year I was surprised to find that in our village of &&)) population, bottles of mineral water were available.

-+3-

*5he countr/$s 0iggest manufacturer is 2ndian. what does it see> from and give to ritain


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Enderstanding the


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-+/-

could not confine itself to IndiaQ i t needed to be big and international to thrive in its chosen

businesses. 8ig acMuisitions were a way of reaching the reMuired scale Muickly.


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-+*-


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office is the glue that binds the 8ritish businesses togetherQ they are run at arm4s-length from each other.

india on the move [being serialized, sl 03, our economic performance].doc

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