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Emerging Markets

Weekly Economic

Briefing

Will the run-up to elections compound India’s

economic woes?

The past couple of years have seen a significant deterioration in the health of India’s

economy. And investor concerns about these weaknesses have led to turmoil in Indian

financial markets since the US Federal Reserve hinted in May that it might soon be scaling

back its quantitative easing programme. Although the Fed’s move has triggered a sell-off

across all emerging markets, in many countries the scale of capital outflows prompted by

investors’ re-assessment of the situation has now started to bottom out. However, in India

and a couple of other economies that also have large current account deficits, the

pressure has persisted. The Indian rupee has already depreciated by about 17% in just

three months and is showing no signs of stabilising despite a significant reversal in

monetary policy.

The lack of sustained economic reform is one key factor behind investors’ pessimism

about the Indian economy. Moreover, in the run-up to next year’s elections the

government is pushing for populist measures that are likely to do more harm than good,

while shying away from unpalatable reforms that might help stem the rupee’s slide.

The Indian economy is struggling…

The past couple of years have seen a marked deterioration in perceptions about India’s

economic prospects. The business environment is poor, infrastructure remains dilapidated, FDI

inflows have stagnated and an inadequate supply-side response has led to persistently high food

price inflation. A couple of years ago, we and other analysts had expected some progress on

policies to tackle these issues. But instead the government’s efforts have been disappointingly

half-hearted. And these factors have been exacerbated by the cyclical slowdown in global

5

6

7

8

9

10

Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13

%

Source: Reuters

India: 10-year government bond yield

23 August 2013

36

40

44

48

52

56

60

64

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012Source: Reserve Bank of India

India: Exchange rateRupee/US$

23 August 2013

Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing

demand over the last two years. Compared to the ‘golden era’ of 2005-10 when the economy

expanded at an average of almost 9% a year; GDP growth has dropped to just 5% in 2012 and

2013, the current account deficit has more than doubled to 5% of GDP and, even in the face of

slowing demand, inflation has remained unsustainably high. Lack of action by the government

has created a deep sense of pessimism about India across the world.

These weaknesses have come under the spotlight even more since May when the US Federal

Reserve hinted that it might soon be scaling back its quantitative easing programme. Investors

have scrambled to switch out of risky emerging market assets to safer US ones, and the

currencies of nearly all the emerging countries have fallen. However, while in many countries the

scale of the capital outflows has started to bottom out, the Indian rupee and a couple of other

currencies, which also have large current account deficits, are still under considerable downward

pressure. The rupee has depreciated by almost 17% in just three months and the chances of a

further depreciation remain high.

Stemming the slide in the rupee and reducing financial market volatility are now the authorities’

immediate concerns, with other pressing issues like the need to boost investment having been

cast aside for the time being. Amid an easing of inflation (at least in wholesale prices), the

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) loosened monetary policy by lowering the key policy rate by a

cumulative 75bp during the first half of the year and we had expected further rate cuts in the rest

of the year. But the scale of market developments since May have forced the RBI to halt its

easing cycle and take measures to tighten policy instead. In July, the RBI raised the Bank Rate

and the Marginal Standing Facility Rate by 200bp to 10.25% (but left the key policy rate at

7.25%), while the authorities issued more government bonds and imposed some restrictive

capital controls on individuals and businesses. Meanwhile, the government also implemented

measures to try to reduce the current account deficit, such as raising the import duty on gold, and

to encourage external financing by the proposed issue of “quasi-sovereign” bonds, whereby the

Indian government provides a guarantee to the bondholders against the default of organisations

that raise finance for large infrastructure projects.

The authorities’ response to the situation has unfortunately left a lot to be desired. Both the

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017

% of GDP

Source: Oxford Economics

F'cast

India: Current account balance

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

% year

Repo rate

Source: Oxford Economics

India: Interest rates and wholesale prices

Mumbai 3-month

offered rate

Wholesale prices

(WPI) inflation

23 August 2013


nature of the measures and the patchy way in which they were announced have signalled the

lack of a coherent plan and a sense of desperation. As a result, financial markets have fallen

further; with the rupee continuing to depreciate, government bond yields increasing and the stock

market falling.

This month the government has appointed Raghuram Rajan, currently economic adviser to the

United Progressive Alliance (UPA) and former chief economist at the IMF, to succeed outgoing

RBI governor Duvvuri Subbarao in September. With a reputation for ‘predicting’ the 2008 global

crisis, he is well regarded in the international and financial community. Although he will not be a

‘silver bullet’, we think that his sound credentials and the fact that he should be able to

communicate more effectively with financial markets could bring some stability, and are thus

cautiously optimistic about his arrival.

…and political populism prior to elections could worsen the situation

However, in our view the run-up to elections, scheduled for May 2014 or potentially earlier, could

further damage the Indian economy. The government is shying away from unpalatable economic

reforms and measures that might dent its popular support.

The rapid slide in the rupee means that India’s immediate priority is to protect the current account

deficit. One way to achieve this would be to cut fuel subsidies and therefore curb oil imports. But

since this will not go down well with the Indian electorate, this option is not being considered.

India could also apply for a credit line from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to stabilise its

currency. But given the stigma attached to requesting IMF aid, this option has been completely

dismissed as well. Although India’s foreign exchange reserves still cover the import bill for about

six months, they have depleted considerably since, say 2007, when they provided import cover of

about 18 months. And if the rupee continues its downward trend, the situation could get rapidly

worse.

Even before the rupee crisis, there is evidence that ahead of next year’s elections, the UPA-led

government had fallen prey to populism. Although Finance Minister P Chidambaram has

announced some encouraging structural measures for the more efficient working of the economy,

such as hiking rail fares for the first time in a decade, allowing companies to raise diesel prices in

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

US$ bn

Source: Haver Analytics

India: Foreign exchange reserves

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

US$bn (4 quarter running total)

Foreign direct

investment in India

Source: Reserve Bank of India

India: FDI inflows & the current account

Current account deficit

23 August 2013


small monthly increments and liberalising, to a large extent, foreign direct investment (FDI) in key

sectors like retail and insurance, this was not followed up by a decisive, reforming Budget.

Instead, the Budget disappointed with a long list of small policy measures and no real efforts to

address the broader problems plaguing the economy. Indeed, completely contrary to the needs

of the hour, cuts were announced to capital rather than current expenditure as a quick-fix solution

to narrow the fiscal deficit. And no significant reforms were announced to cut subsidies further,

revamp tax laws or tackle infrastructure issues (which are particularly critical in the power sector).

This apparent incoherence in Chidambaram’s actions suggests disagreement within the coalition

– between the ruling Congress party and its regional affiliates. Previous incidents appear to

support this claim; for instance Mamata Banerjee, the Chief Minister of West Bengal of the All

India Trinamool Congress, withdrew her party’s support for the UPA in September 2012 when her

demands to limit diesel and gas price hikes and abolish the bill for FDI in the retail sector were

not met. Therefore it seems that even if the ruling Congress party wanted to push through

decisive economic reforms, it would be held back by other coalition members eager to express

their support for the more ‘popular’ side of any issue to maximise their chances of being re-

elected in their respective states. The fragmentation of the political system in recent years means

that there are not enough politicians with a national perspective arguing for change that might

benefit the whole country; instead there is a much narrower focus on what is popular with

particular parts of the country or particular sections of society.

Critics also point to the government’s more pro-actively populist measures ahead of next year’s

elections. On top of the food subsidies already in place, the UPA is aggressively working towards

passing the National Food Security Bill (NFSB), which will provide grains such as rice and wheat

at just INR1-3 per kilogram (less than 10% of the retail price) to 70% of the population. Although

this appears to be a worthy cause, the wide range of problems associated with it suggests that it

may do more harm than good. For one, India’s fiscal deficit is already large at more than 5% of

GDP and the sovereign credit rating is just one notch above junk status. And in its first year the

NFSB might cost the exchequer an additional INR250bn or approximately 0.3% of GDP, with the

cost likely to get bigger over time. In addition if food prices soared because of flood or drought,

the government’s spending on the subsidy would also surge. Finally, efficient implementation of

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017

% year

GDP

Industrial

production

Source: Oxford Economics / CEIC

Forecast

India: GDP and industrial production

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

20

30

40

50

60

70

1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017

% of GDP

F'cast

Source: Oxford Economics / CEIC

Government

debt (RHS)

Central government

balance (LHS)

India: Government budget balance and debt% of GDP

23 August 2013


the bill is questionable; it will be very challenging for the government to ensure that only those

entitled to the subsidy will receive it.

We believe that in the current circumstances, when there are many more pressing concerns for

the government to address, this seems like an inopportune time to push for the NFSB. And more

generally we are of the opinion that, rather than increasing subsidies, spending on other welfare

schemes such as education would prove more beneficial for the country from both an economic

as well as a social point of view.

This bill and other aspects of the UPA’s governance have been severely criticised by the

opposition party – the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) – as part of their election campaign.

But the NDA has failed to provide any credible policy options to address the social and economic

problems that India faces. Given the fragmented nature of the Indian political system and the lack

of political leadership, we think that the outcome of the elections is unlikely to have a significant

impact on India’s growth.

Our forecast for India remains downbeat. We expect GDP to expand by just 5% in 2013 and

6.1% in 2014. Beyond that, growth is expected to average around 7% a year in 2015-18, helped

by the return of a much stronger global economy than in the last couple of years. However, while

these forecasts are well below the government’s 8% target, they could easily prove far too

optimistic if business confidence remains depressed.

Conclusion

India’s economy is in a very vulnerable state, something that has come to the fore after the US

Federal Reserve hinted in May that it was contemplating scaling back its quantitative easing

programme. The rupee has fallen by about 17% in just three months and the chances of it

depreciating further remain high. Moreover, we are fearful that the run-up to next year’s elections

could damage the economy further. The government is hesitating to implement unpalatable

reform policies that would help to stem the recent rupee slide, preferring to focus on populist

measures, such as the National Food Security Bill, which may do more harm than good.

23 August 2013


Latest data

Recent Data Releases

Previous month

Latest Comment

China – Flash PMI

47.7 (Jul) 50.1 (Aug) New orders picked up promisingly in August.

Russia – Industrial output

– Manufacturing output (Jul)

– Fixed Investment (Jul)

– Retail Sales (Jul)

– Unemployment Rate (Jul)

– Nominal Wages (Jul)

0.1% y/y (Jun)

-1.2% y/y

-3.7% y/y

3.5% y/y

5.2% (2012)

12.6% y/y

-0.7% y/y (Jul)

-1.5% y/y

2.5% y/y

4.3% y/y

5.3% (2013)

13.5% y/y

Manufacturing output has fallen for three months, raising the likelihood of rate cuts in coming months. Investment grew at the fastest pace this year in July, offering hope that activity might be beginning to improve but we will need to wait and see if this improvement continues. Retail sales also picked up.

Mexico – GDP (Q2, s. adj)

– Retail sales (Jun)

0.0% q/q

2.6% y/y

0.8% m/m

0.2% y/y

-0.7% q/q

0.3% y/y

0.1% m/m

-1.2% y/y

Having stalled in Q1, Mexico contracted in Q2, hit by weak export demand, lower manufacturing output and subdued retail sales. The government has cut its forecast for growth this year from 3.1% to 1.8%.

Poland – Wages (Jul)

– Industrial Output

(Jul, s. adj)

– Employment

1.4% y/y

3.1% m/m

4.5% y/y

-0.8% y/y (Jun)

3.5% y/y

0.5% m/m

2.8% y/y

-0.7% y/y (Jul)

Employment remains weak but industrial output has picked up in the last couple of months. Wage growth is above CPI inflation but is unlikely to accelerate that much given the weak labour market.

Taiwan – GDP (Q2, s.adj)

– Ind. output (Jul, s. adj.)

– Export Orders (Jul)

– Unemployment Rate (s.adj)

-0.6% q/q

1.8% y/y

0.6% m/m

1.5% y/y

-3.5% y/y

4.2% (Jun)

0.6% q/q

2.4% y/y

0.8% m/m

0.6% y/y

0.5% y/y

4.2% (Jul)

The government cut its forecast for growth this year from 2.4% to 2.3% but Q2 growth was slightly stronger than the advance estimate. July export orders were fairly subdued (as orders were weak last July). However, seasonally adjusted industrial output has increased three months in a row.

S. Africa – Consumer Prices 5.5% y/y (Jun) 6.3% y/y (Jul) The weak currency is pushing inflation higher; petrol prices rose by 22.6% y/y in July.

Singapore – Non Oil

Domestic Exports (Jul) (s.adj)

3.3% m/m

-7.4% y/y

-1.1% m/m

-5.0% y/y

Recovery in exports is still quite modest, with biomed exports weakening in recent months.

Hong Kong – GDP (Q2,

s. adj.)

– Unemployment rate (Jul)

0.2% q/q

2.6% y/y

3.3%

0.8% q/q

3.5% y/y

3.3%

GDP growth picked up in Q2 on stronger tourism and public investment but goods exports weakened and private spending fell back (though unemployment remains low).

Thailand – GDP (Q2, s. adj.) -1.7% q/q

5.5% y/y

-0.3% q/q

2.6% y/y

Seasonally adjusted consumer spending fell sharply in Q2 while goods exports were still weak, pushing the economy into recession.

Chile – GDP (Q2, s. adj.) 0.8% q/q

5.1% y/y

0.5% q/q

4.0% y/y

The economy grew at its weakest pace since Q3 2011 on lower mining output. However, consumer spending growth remained strong.

Argentina – Consumer prices 10.5% y/y (Jun) 10.6% y/y (Jul) The true rate of inflation is thought to be well in excess of 30%.

23 August 2013


Events

Monetary policy meetings in past week

Key rate (now) Outcome Comment

Aug 20th – Turkey 4.5% (One week

repo rate) Unchanged Having raised the overnight lending rate by 75bp

in July, the central bank increased this rate by a further 50bp this month. The bank recognised that market conditions had radically changed from the situation prevailing a few months ago (when it was easing policy and when foreign investors were large buyers of Turkish assets), and that interest rates needed to be higher to help to stabilise the currency and to check inflationary expectations.

Aug 21st

– Thailand 2.5% (Policy rate) Unchanged The Bank of Thailand left the interest rate on hold as expected, happy that the current level of interest rates is appropriate for the economy. One committee member voted for a cut to boost growth. We expect rates to remain on hold into next year unless the outlook deteriorates sharply.

For more information contact Clare Howarth ([email protected]) or

Sarah Fowler ([email protected])

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

23 August 2013


Asia

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

% year


South East Asia: Real GDP

Thailand

Malaysia

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013Source: Bank Indonesia/Biro Pusat Statistik

Visibles

Current account

Indonesia: External balancesUS$ bn

4 quarter moving sum

35

40

45

50

55

60

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

50 = expansion / contraction line

Source: China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing / Markit

China: Manufacturing PMI

Official PMI

HSBC PMI

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

% year


Malaysia: Components of GDP

Consumer

spending

Export

volumes

Investment

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

US$ bn (4 quarter running total)

Source: Bank Indonesia

Indonesia: FDI inflows

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

% year

Source: Bank of Thailand

Thailand: Components of GDP

Consumer

spending

Export

volumes

Investment

23 August 2013


Asia

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

% year

China


Emerging Asia: Consumer prices

India (CPI)

"Rest of Asia"

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013Source: Census and Statistics Department

%

Hong Kong: Unemployment rate

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

2011=100 (seasonally adjusted)

Source: CEIC

Taiwan: Industrial output

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13

Index (Dec 30, 2010 = 100)

China


Emergers: Equity markets

India

Indonesia

Korea

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110


Index (Dec 30, 2010 = 100)

China


Emergers: Exchange rates v US$

India

Indonesia

Korea

appreciation

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110


Index (Dec 30, 2010 = 100)

Malaysia



Thailand

Philippines

Singapore

appreciation

23 August 2013


Latin America

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

% (seasonally adjusted estimates)

Source: IBGE / Oxford Economics

Brazil: Unemployment rate

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

% year

Chile


Latin America: Monthly GDP

3 month moving average

Mexico

Peru

Argentina

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

%


Mexico: GDP

Quarterly annualised growth

Annual % change

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

2003=100 (seasonally adjusted)


Mexico: Retail sales volumes

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

% year

Consumer

spending


Chile: GDP, domestic demand & exports

GDP

Exports

Investment

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110


Index (Dec 30,2010 = 100)

Chile



Brazil

depreciation

ArgentinaMexico

23 August 2013


Emerging Europe

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

% year


Russia & Poland: Real Wages

Poland

Russia

3 month moving average

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

% year


Russia: Wages, retail sales & capital spending

Retail sales

Capital expenditure

Real wages

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

% (seasonally adjusted estimates)


Russia: Unemployment rate

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Index (2008H1=100)


Central Europe: Industrial output

Hungary

Slovak

Czech

Poland

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106


Index (Dec 30, 2010 = 100)


Russia: Exchange rate v Euro & US$ basket

depreciation

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13

%, 10-year bonds

Source: Reuters / Haver Analytics

CEE: Government bond yields

Hungary

Poland

Czech

23 August 2013


Rest of the world & financial developments

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

2010=100

Turkey

Source: Haver Analytics / BIS

Rest of World: Real effective exchange rates

S. Africa

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

% year


Rest of World: Consumer prices

Turkey

S. Africa

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

%


Turkey: Bank lending

% year

13-week annualised change

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105


Index (Dec 30, 2010 = 100)


Emergers: Exchange rates

Turkey (v Euro)

depreciation

S. Africa (v US$)

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13


%

Poland


Emergers: 10 year government bond yields

Brazil

South Africa

Turkey

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140


Index (Dec 30, 2010 = 100)


Emergers: Equity markets

Emergers (MSCI, US$)

US S&P 500

23 August 2013


China Brazil Korea India Mexico Russia Turkey Taiwan Poland

2012

Jul 9.2 -3.9 -0.6 -0.1 3.4 3.4 3.3 -0.2 4.3

Aug 8.9 -1.9 -2.5 2.0 2.8 2.1 0.5 1.3 1.4

Sep 9.2 -0.7 -1.8 -0.8 2.9 2.0 3.5 5.2 -1.6

Oct 9.6 1.1 -0.7 8.3 1.0 1.8 0.8 2.4 0.7

Nov 10.1 -0.9 2.2 -1.0 2.5 1.9 4.0 5.8 -1.7

Dec 10.3 -1.7 4.1 -0.5 0.2 1.4 -1.3 4.3 -4.5

2013

Jan 9.9 3.0 0.6 2.5 -0.4 -0.8 2.2 1.4 -2.3

Feb 9.9 -0.7 -1.6 0.6 0.3 -2.1 3.9 5.3 -2.3

Mar 8.9 1.2 -1.4 3.5 0.3 2.6 1.3 -1.7 0.8

Apr 9.3 3.5 -1.4 1.9 -1.6 2.3 3.3 -1.8 -0.4

May 9.2 1.9 -2.7 -2.9 -1.4 -1.4 0.8 -1.0 -0.9

Jun 8.9 4.2 -1.3 -2.2 -2.1 0.1 4.3 1.5 4.5

Jul 9.7 - - - - -0.7 - 0.6 2.8

Industrial Production

Percentage changes on a year earlier unless otherwise stated


2012

Jul 1.8 5.2 1.5 9.9 4.4 5.6 9.1 2.5 4.0

Aug 2.0 5.2 1.2 10.0 4.6 5.9 8.9 3.4 3.8

Sep 1.9 5.3 2.0 9.7 4.8 6.6 9.2 3.0 3.8

Oct 1.7 5.4 2.1 9.8 4.6 6.5 7.8 2.3 3.4

Nov 2.0 5.5 1.6 9.9 4.2 6.5 6.4 1.6 2.8

Dec 2.5 5.8 1.4 10.6 3.6 6.6 6.2 1.6 2.4

2013

Jan 2.0 6.2 1.5 10.8 3.3 7.1 7.3 1.1 1.7

Feb 3.2 6.3 1.4 10.9 3.6 7.3 7.0 3.0 1.3

Mar 2.1 6.6 1.3 10.4 4.3 7.0 7.3 1.4 1.0

Apr 2.4 6.5 1.2 9.4 4.6 7.2 6.1 1.0 0.8

May 2.1 6.5 1.0 9.3 4.6 7.4 6.5 0.7 0.5

Jun 2.7 6.7 1.0 9.9 4.1 6.9 8.3 0.6 0.2

Jul 2.7 6.3 1.4 9.6 3.5 6.5 8.9 0.1 1.1

Consumer prices


23 August 2013



2012

Jul 1.0 -5.6 -8.8 -12.2 3.1 -0.6 8.8 -11.5 -4.6

Aug 2.7 -14.4 -6.2 -9.7 5.2 -6.0 12.6 -4.0 -9.4

Sep 9.9 -14.1 -2.0 -10.8 5.4 0.2 19.6 10.3 -6.1

Oct 11.6 -1.7 1.0 -1.6 5.2 2.9 19.7 -1.9 11.4

Nov 2.9 -6.0 3.8 -4.2 5.3 -2.5 13.2 0.8 3.3

Dec 14.0 -10.8 -6.0 -1.9 4.1 -4.0 5.0 8.9 -2.6

2013

Jan 25.0 -1.1 10.9 0.8 -0.7 -1.5 7.5 21.6 9.4

Feb 21.7 -13.8 -8.6 4.2 -0.9 -6.6 7.9 -15.8 6.4

Mar 10.0 -7.6 0.2 7.0 1.6 -4.6 2.4 3.2 -3.0

Apr 14.7 5.4 0.4 1.7 -0.6 -2.0 -3.4 -1.9 11.4

May 1.0 -6.0 3.0 -1.1 1.6 -8.9 0.8 0.7 3.5

Jun -3.1 9.2 -1.0 -4.6 4.4 1.8 -3.1 8.6 12.8

Jul 5.1 -0.9 2.7 11.6 - - - 1.6 -

Exports (US dollars)



2012

Jul 4.6 -5.1 -5.4 -1.1 0.0 10.6 -6.5 -3.3 -11.2

Aug -2.5 -13.9 -9.7 -5.1 5.6 1.8 -0.3 -7.9 -15.4

Sep 2.4 -13.7 -6.1 5.1 0.1 2.0 -2.3 1.2 -8.5

Oct 2.3 1.7 1.6 7.4 6.4 12.0 -2.3 -1.8 3.3

Nov 0.0 -2.5 0.9 6.4 8.7 2.8 1.4 0.1 -1.1

Dec 6.1 -4.5 -5.3 6.3 2.3 6.3 0.2 1.5 -2.3

2013

Jan 29.0 14.7 3.9 6.1 6.7 13.3 8.2 22.2 4.1

Feb -15.2 3.1 -10.7 2.6 2.7 7.6 15.2 -8.5 -4.7

Mar 14.0 1.4 -1.9 -2.9 4.8 0.5 2.9 0.2 -3.4

Apr 16.8 15.7 -0.3 11.0 0.4 11.3 15.7 -8.2 2.9

May -0.3 4.0 -5.2 7.0 4.2 -6.2 7.9 -8.0 -3.6

Jun -0.7 1.5 -2.5 -0.4 5.3 3.6 6.0 6.8 4.5

Jul 10.9 25.2 3.0 -6.2 - - - -7.6 -

Imports (US dollars)


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