Emerging Markets
Weekly Economic
Briefing
Will the run-up to elections compound India’s
economic woes?
The past couple of years have seen a significant deterioration in the health of India’s
economy. And investor concerns about these weaknesses have led to turmoil in Indian
financial markets since the US Federal Reserve hinted in May that it might soon be scaling
back its quantitative easing programme. Although the Fed’s move has triggered a sell-off
across all emerging markets, in many countries the scale of capital outflows prompted by
investors’ re-assessment of the situation has now started to bottom out. However, in India
and a couple of other economies that also have large current account deficits, the
pressure has persisted. The Indian rupee has already depreciated by about 17% in just
three months and is showing no signs of stabilising despite a significant reversal in
monetary policy.
The lack of sustained economic reform is one key factor behind investors’ pessimism
about the Indian economy. Moreover, in the run-up to next year’s elections the
government is pushing for populist measures that are likely to do more harm than good,
while shying away from unpalatable reforms that might help stem the rupee’s slide.
The Indian economy is struggling…
The past couple of years have seen a marked deterioration in perceptions about India’s
economic prospects. The business environment is poor, infrastructure remains dilapidated, FDI
inflows have stagnated and an inadequate supply-side response has led to persistently high food
price inflation. A couple of years ago, we and other analysts had expected some progress on
policies to tackle these issues. But instead the government’s efforts have been disappointingly
half-hearted. And these factors have been exacerbated by the cyclical slowdown in global
5
6
7
8
9
10
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
%
Source: Reuters
India: 10-year government bond yield
23 August 2013
36
40
44
48
52
56
60
64
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012Source: Reserve Bank of India
India: Exchange rateRupee/US$
23 August 2013
Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing
demand over the last two years. Compared to the ‘golden era’ of 2005-10 when the economy
expanded at an average of almost 9% a year; GDP growth has dropped to just 5% in 2012 and
2013, the current account deficit has more than doubled to 5% of GDP and, even in the face of
slowing demand, inflation has remained unsustainably high. Lack of action by the government
has created a deep sense of pessimism about India across the world.
These weaknesses have come under the spotlight even more since May when the US Federal
Reserve hinted that it might soon be scaling back its quantitative easing programme. Investors
have scrambled to switch out of risky emerging market assets to safer US ones, and the
currencies of nearly all the emerging countries have fallen. However, while in many countries the
scale of the capital outflows has started to bottom out, the Indian rupee and a couple of other
currencies, which also have large current account deficits, are still under considerable downward
pressure. The rupee has depreciated by almost 17% in just three months and the chances of a
further depreciation remain high.
Stemming the slide in the rupee and reducing financial market volatility are now the authorities’
immediate concerns, with other pressing issues like the need to boost investment having been
cast aside for the time being. Amid an easing of inflation (at least in wholesale prices), the
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) loosened monetary policy by lowering the key policy rate by a
cumulative 75bp during the first half of the year and we had expected further rate cuts in the rest
of the year. But the scale of market developments since May have forced the RBI to halt its
easing cycle and take measures to tighten policy instead. In July, the RBI raised the Bank Rate
and the Marginal Standing Facility Rate by 200bp to 10.25% (but left the key policy rate at
7.25%), while the authorities issued more government bonds and imposed some restrictive
capital controls on individuals and businesses. Meanwhile, the government also implemented
measures to try to reduce the current account deficit, such as raising the import duty on gold, and
to encourage external financing by the proposed issue of “quasi-sovereign” bonds, whereby the
Indian government provides a guarantee to the bondholders against the default of organisations
that raise finance for large infrastructure projects.
The authorities’ response to the situation has unfortunately left a lot to be desired. Both the
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017
% of GDP
Source: Oxford Economics
F'cast
India: Current account balance
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
% year
Repo rate
Source: Oxford Economics
India: Interest rates and wholesale prices
Mumbai 3-month
offered rate
Wholesale prices
(WPI) inflation
23 August 2013
Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing
nature of the measures and the patchy way in which they were announced have signalled the
lack of a coherent plan and a sense of desperation. As a result, financial markets have fallen
further; with the rupee continuing to depreciate, government bond yields increasing and the stock
market falling.
This month the government has appointed Raghuram Rajan, currently economic adviser to the
United Progressive Alliance (UPA) and former chief economist at the IMF, to succeed outgoing
RBI governor Duvvuri Subbarao in September. With a reputation for ‘predicting’ the 2008 global
crisis, he is well regarded in the international and financial community. Although he will not be a
‘silver bullet’, we think that his sound credentials and the fact that he should be able to
communicate more effectively with financial markets could bring some stability, and are thus
cautiously optimistic about his arrival.
…and political populism prior to elections could worsen the situation
However, in our view the run-up to elections, scheduled for May 2014 or potentially earlier, could
further damage the Indian economy. The government is shying away from unpalatable economic
reforms and measures that might dent its popular support.
The rapid slide in the rupee means that India’s immediate priority is to protect the current account
deficit. One way to achieve this would be to cut fuel subsidies and therefore curb oil imports. But
since this will not go down well with the Indian electorate, this option is not being considered.
India could also apply for a credit line from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to stabilise its
currency. But given the stigma attached to requesting IMF aid, this option has been completely
dismissed as well. Although India’s foreign exchange reserves still cover the import bill for about
six months, they have depleted considerably since, say 2007, when they provided import cover of
about 18 months. And if the rupee continues its downward trend, the situation could get rapidly
worse.
Even before the rupee crisis, there is evidence that ahead of next year’s elections, the UPA-led
government had fallen prey to populism. Although Finance Minister P Chidambaram has
announced some encouraging structural measures for the more efficient working of the economy,
such as hiking rail fares for the first time in a decade, allowing companies to raise diesel prices in
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
US$ bn
Source: Haver Analytics
India: Foreign exchange reserves
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
US$bn (4 quarter running total)
Foreign direct
investment in India
Source: Reserve Bank of India
India: FDI inflows & the current account
Current account deficit
23 August 2013
Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing
small monthly increments and liberalising, to a large extent, foreign direct investment (FDI) in key
sectors like retail and insurance, this was not followed up by a decisive, reforming Budget.
Instead, the Budget disappointed with a long list of small policy measures and no real efforts to
address the broader problems plaguing the economy. Indeed, completely contrary to the needs
of the hour, cuts were announced to capital rather than current expenditure as a quick-fix solution
to narrow the fiscal deficit. And no significant reforms were announced to cut subsidies further,
revamp tax laws or tackle infrastructure issues (which are particularly critical in the power sector).
This apparent incoherence in Chidambaram’s actions suggests disagreement within the coalition
– between the ruling Congress party and its regional affiliates. Previous incidents appear to
support this claim; for instance Mamata Banerjee, the Chief Minister of West Bengal of the All
India Trinamool Congress, withdrew her party’s support for the UPA in September 2012 when her
demands to limit diesel and gas price hikes and abolish the bill for FDI in the retail sector were
not met. Therefore it seems that even if the ruling Congress party wanted to push through
decisive economic reforms, it would be held back by other coalition members eager to express
their support for the more ‘popular’ side of any issue to maximise their chances of being re-
elected in their respective states. The fragmentation of the political system in recent years means
that there are not enough politicians with a national perspective arguing for change that might
benefit the whole country; instead there is a much narrower focus on what is popular with
particular parts of the country or particular sections of society.
Critics also point to the government’s more pro-actively populist measures ahead of next year’s
elections. On top of the food subsidies already in place, the UPA is aggressively working towards
passing the National Food Security Bill (NFSB), which will provide grains such as rice and wheat
at just INR1-3 per kilogram (less than 10% of the retail price) to 70% of the population. Although
this appears to be a worthy cause, the wide range of problems associated with it suggests that it
may do more harm than good. For one, India’s fiscal deficit is already large at more than 5% of
GDP and the sovereign credit rating is just one notch above junk status. And in its first year the
NFSB might cost the exchequer an additional INR250bn or approximately 0.3% of GDP, with the
cost likely to get bigger over time. In addition if food prices soared because of flood or drought,
the government’s spending on the subsidy would also surge. Finally, efficient implementation of
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017
% year
GDP
Industrial
production
Source: Oxford Economics / CEIC
Forecast
India: GDP and industrial production
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
20
30
40
50
60
70
1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017
% of GDP
F'cast
Source: Oxford Economics / CEIC
Government
debt (RHS)
Central government
balance (LHS)
India: Government budget balance and debt% of GDP
23 August 2013
Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing
the bill is questionable; it will be very challenging for the government to ensure that only those
entitled to the subsidy will receive it.
We believe that in the current circumstances, when there are many more pressing concerns for
the government to address, this seems like an inopportune time to push for the NFSB. And more
generally we are of the opinion that, rather than increasing subsidies, spending on other welfare
schemes such as education would prove more beneficial for the country from both an economic
as well as a social point of view.
This bill and other aspects of the UPA’s governance have been severely criticised by the
opposition party – the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) – as part of their election campaign.
But the NDA has failed to provide any credible policy options to address the social and economic
problems that India faces. Given the fragmented nature of the Indian political system and the lack
of political leadership, we think that the outcome of the elections is unlikely to have a significant
impact on India’s growth.
Our forecast for India remains downbeat. We expect GDP to expand by just 5% in 2013 and
6.1% in 2014. Beyond that, growth is expected to average around 7% a year in 2015-18, helped
by the return of a much stronger global economy than in the last couple of years. However, while
these forecasts are well below the government’s 8% target, they could easily prove far too
optimistic if business confidence remains depressed.
Conclusion
India’s economy is in a very vulnerable state, something that has come to the fore after the US
Federal Reserve hinted in May that it was contemplating scaling back its quantitative easing
programme. The rupee has fallen by about 17% in just three months and the chances of it
depreciating further remain high. Moreover, we are fearful that the run-up to next year’s elections
could damage the economy further. The government is hesitating to implement unpalatable
reform policies that would help to stem the recent rupee slide, preferring to focus on populist
measures, such as the National Food Security Bill, which may do more harm than good.
23 August 2013
Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing
Latest data
Recent Data Releases
Previous month
Latest Comment
China – Flash PMI
47.7 (Jul) 50.1 (Aug) New orders picked up promisingly in August.
Russia – Industrial output
– Manufacturing output (Jul)
– Fixed Investment (Jul)
– Retail Sales (Jul)
– Unemployment Rate (Jul)
– Nominal Wages (Jul)
0.1% y/y (Jun)
-1.2% y/y
-3.7% y/y
3.5% y/y
5.2% (2012)
12.6% y/y
-0.7% y/y (Jul)
-1.5% y/y
2.5% y/y
4.3% y/y
5.3% (2013)
13.5% y/y
Manufacturing output has fallen for three months, raising the likelihood of rate cuts in coming months. Investment grew at the fastest pace this year in July, offering hope that activity might be beginning to improve but we will need to wait and see if this improvement continues. Retail sales also picked up.
Mexico – GDP (Q2, s. adj)
– Retail sales (Jun)
0.0% q/q
2.6% y/y
0.8% m/m
0.2% y/y
-0.7% q/q
0.3% y/y
0.1% m/m
-1.2% y/y
Having stalled in Q1, Mexico contracted in Q2, hit by weak export demand, lower manufacturing output and subdued retail sales. The government has cut its forecast for growth this year from 3.1% to 1.8%.
Poland – Wages (Jul)
– Industrial Output
(Jul, s. adj)
– Employment
1.4% y/y
3.1% m/m
4.5% y/y
-0.8% y/y (Jun)
3.5% y/y
0.5% m/m
2.8% y/y
-0.7% y/y (Jul)
Employment remains weak but industrial output has picked up in the last couple of months. Wage growth is above CPI inflation but is unlikely to accelerate that much given the weak labour market.
Taiwan – GDP (Q2, s.adj)
– Ind. output (Jul, s. adj.)
– Export Orders (Jul)
– Unemployment Rate (s.adj)
-0.6% q/q
1.8% y/y
0.6% m/m
1.5% y/y
-3.5% y/y
4.2% (Jun)
0.6% q/q
2.4% y/y
0.8% m/m
0.6% y/y
0.5% y/y
4.2% (Jul)
The government cut its forecast for growth this year from 2.4% to 2.3% but Q2 growth was slightly stronger than the advance estimate. July export orders were fairly subdued (as orders were weak last July). However, seasonally adjusted industrial output has increased three months in a row.
S. Africa – Consumer Prices 5.5% y/y (Jun) 6.3% y/y (Jul) The weak currency is pushing inflation higher; petrol prices rose by 22.6% y/y in July.
Singapore – Non Oil
Domestic Exports (Jul) (s.adj)
3.3% m/m
-7.4% y/y
-1.1% m/m
-5.0% y/y
Recovery in exports is still quite modest, with biomed exports weakening in recent months.
Hong Kong – GDP (Q2,
s. adj.)
– Unemployment rate (Jul)
0.2% q/q
2.6% y/y
3.3%
0.8% q/q
3.5% y/y
3.3%
GDP growth picked up in Q2 on stronger tourism and public investment but goods exports weakened and private spending fell back (though unemployment remains low).
Thailand – GDP (Q2, s. adj.) -1.7% q/q
5.5% y/y
-0.3% q/q
2.6% y/y
Seasonally adjusted consumer spending fell sharply in Q2 while goods exports were still weak, pushing the economy into recession.
Chile – GDP (Q2, s. adj.) 0.8% q/q
5.1% y/y
0.5% q/q
4.0% y/y
The economy grew at its weakest pace since Q3 2011 on lower mining output. However, consumer spending growth remained strong.
Argentina – Consumer prices 10.5% y/y (Jun) 10.6% y/y (Jul) The true rate of inflation is thought to be well in excess of 30%.
23 August 2013
Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing
Events
Monetary policy meetings in past week
Key rate (now) Outcome Comment
Aug 20th – Turkey 4.5% (One week
repo rate) Unchanged Having raised the overnight lending rate by 75bp
in July, the central bank increased this rate by a further 50bp this month. The bank recognised that market conditions had radically changed from the situation prevailing a few months ago (when it was easing policy and when foreign investors were large buyers of Turkish assets), and that interest rates needed to be higher to help to stabilise the currency and to check inflationary expectations.
Aug 21st
– Thailand 2.5% (Policy rate) Unchanged The Bank of Thailand left the interest rate on hold as expected, happy that the current level of interest rates is appropriate for the economy. One committee member voted for a cut to boost growth. We expect rates to remain on hold into next year unless the outlook deteriorates sharply.
For more information contact Clare Howarth ([email protected]) or
Sarah Fowler ([email protected])
23 August 2013
Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing
Asia
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
% year
Source: Haver Analytics
South East Asia: Real GDP
Thailand
Malaysia
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013Source: Bank Indonesia/Biro Pusat Statistik
Visibles
Current account
Indonesia: External balancesUS$ bn
4 quarter moving sum
35
40
45
50
55
60
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
50 = expansion / contraction line
Source: China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing / Markit
China: Manufacturing PMI
Official PMI
HSBC PMI
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
% year
Source: Haver Analytics
Malaysia: Components of GDP
Consumer
spending
Export
volumes
Investment
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
US$ bn (4 quarter running total)
Source: Bank Indonesia
Indonesia: FDI inflows
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
% year
Source: Bank of Thailand
Thailand: Components of GDP
Consumer
spending
Export
volumes
Investment
23 August 2013
Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing
Asia
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
% year
China
Source: Haver Analytics
Emerging Asia: Consumer prices
India (CPI)
"Rest of Asia"
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013Source: Census and Statistics Department
%
Hong Kong: Unemployment rate
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
2011=100 (seasonally adjusted)
Source: CEIC
Taiwan: Industrial output
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13
Index (Dec 30, 2010 = 100)
China
Source: Haver Analytics
Emergers: Equity markets
India
Indonesia
Korea
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13
Index (Dec 30, 2010 = 100)
China
Source: Haver Analytics
Emergers: Exchange rates v US$
India
Indonesia
Korea
appreciation
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13
Index (Dec 30, 2010 = 100)
Malaysia
Source: Haver Analytics
Emergers: Exchange rates v US$
Thailand
Philippines
Singapore
appreciation
23 August 2013
Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing
Latin America
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
% (seasonally adjusted estimates)
Source: IBGE / Oxford Economics
Brazil: Unemployment rate
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
% year
Chile
Source: Haver Analytics
Latin America: Monthly GDP
3 month moving average
Mexico
Peru
Argentina
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
%
Source: Haver Analytics
Mexico: GDP
Quarterly annualised growth
Annual % change
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
2003=100 (seasonally adjusted)
Source: Haver Analytics
Mexico: Retail sales volumes
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
% year
Consumer
spending
Source: Haver Analytics
Chile: GDP, domestic demand & exports
GDP
Exports
Investment
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13
Index (Dec 30,2010 = 100)
Chile
Source: Haver Analytics
Emergers: Exchange rates v US$
Brazil
depreciation
ArgentinaMexico
23 August 2013
Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing
Emerging Europe
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
% year
Source: Haver Analytics
Russia & Poland: Real Wages
Poland
Russia
3 month moving average
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
% year
Source: Haver Analytics
Russia: Wages, retail sales & capital spending
Retail sales
Capital expenditure
Real wages
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
% (seasonally adjusted estimates)
Source: Haver Analytics
Russia: Unemployment rate
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Index (2008H1=100)
Source: Haver Analytics
Central Europe: Industrial output
Hungary
Slovak
Czech
Poland
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13
Index (Dec 30, 2010 = 100)
Source: Haver Analytics
Russia: Exchange rate v Euro & US$ basket
depreciation
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
%, 10-year bonds
Source: Reuters / Haver Analytics
CEE: Government bond yields
Hungary
Poland
Czech
23 August 2013
Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing
Rest of the world & financial developments
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
2010=100
Turkey
Source: Haver Analytics / BIS
Rest of World: Real effective exchange rates
S. Africa
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
% year
Source: Haver Analytics
Rest of World: Consumer prices
Turkey
S. Africa
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
%
Source: Haver Analytics
Turkey: Bank lending
% year
13-week annualised change
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13
Index (Dec 30, 2010 = 100)
Source: Haver Analytics
Emergers: Exchange rates
Turkey (v Euro)
depreciation
S. Africa (v US$)
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13
%
Poland
Source: Haver Analytics
Emergers: 10 year government bond yields
Brazil
South Africa
Turkey
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13
Index (Dec 30, 2010 = 100)
Source: Haver Analytics
Emergers: Equity markets
Emergers (MSCI, US$)
US S&P 500
23 August 2013
Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing
China Brazil Korea India Mexico Russia Turkey Taiwan Poland
2012
Jul 9.2 -3.9 -0.6 -0.1 3.4 3.4 3.3 -0.2 4.3
Aug 8.9 -1.9 -2.5 2.0 2.8 2.1 0.5 1.3 1.4
Sep 9.2 -0.7 -1.8 -0.8 2.9 2.0 3.5 5.2 -1.6
Oct 9.6 1.1 -0.7 8.3 1.0 1.8 0.8 2.4 0.7
Nov 10.1 -0.9 2.2 -1.0 2.5 1.9 4.0 5.8 -1.7
Dec 10.3 -1.7 4.1 -0.5 0.2 1.4 -1.3 4.3 -4.5
2013
Jan 9.9 3.0 0.6 2.5 -0.4 -0.8 2.2 1.4 -2.3
Feb 9.9 -0.7 -1.6 0.6 0.3 -2.1 3.9 5.3 -2.3
Mar 8.9 1.2 -1.4 3.5 0.3 2.6 1.3 -1.7 0.8
Apr 9.3 3.5 -1.4 1.9 -1.6 2.3 3.3 -1.8 -0.4
May 9.2 1.9 -2.7 -2.9 -1.4 -1.4 0.8 -1.0 -0.9
Jun 8.9 4.2 -1.3 -2.2 -2.1 0.1 4.3 1.5 4.5
Jul 9.7 - - - - -0.7 - 0.6 2.8
Industrial Production
Percentage changes on a year earlier unless otherwise stated
China Brazil Korea India Mexico Russia Turkey Taiwan Poland
2012
Jul 1.8 5.2 1.5 9.9 4.4 5.6 9.1 2.5 4.0
Aug 2.0 5.2 1.2 10.0 4.6 5.9 8.9 3.4 3.8
Sep 1.9 5.3 2.0 9.7 4.8 6.6 9.2 3.0 3.8
Oct 1.7 5.4 2.1 9.8 4.6 6.5 7.8 2.3 3.4
Nov 2.0 5.5 1.6 9.9 4.2 6.5 6.4 1.6 2.8
Dec 2.5 5.8 1.4 10.6 3.6 6.6 6.2 1.6 2.4
2013
Jan 2.0 6.2 1.5 10.8 3.3 7.1 7.3 1.1 1.7
Feb 3.2 6.3 1.4 10.9 3.6 7.3 7.0 3.0 1.3
Mar 2.1 6.6 1.3 10.4 4.3 7.0 7.3 1.4 1.0
Apr 2.4 6.5 1.2 9.4 4.6 7.2 6.1 1.0 0.8
May 2.1 6.5 1.0 9.3 4.6 7.4 6.5 0.7 0.5
Jun 2.7 6.7 1.0 9.9 4.1 6.9 8.3 0.6 0.2
Jul 2.7 6.3 1.4 9.6 3.5 6.5 8.9 0.1 1.1
Consumer prices
Percentage changes on a year earlier unless otherwise stated
23 August 2013
Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing
China Brazil Korea India Mexico Russia Turkey Taiwan Poland
2012
Jul 1.0 -5.6 -8.8 -12.2 3.1 -0.6 8.8 -11.5 -4.6
Aug 2.7 -14.4 -6.2 -9.7 5.2 -6.0 12.6 -4.0 -9.4
Sep 9.9 -14.1 -2.0 -10.8 5.4 0.2 19.6 10.3 -6.1
Oct 11.6 -1.7 1.0 -1.6 5.2 2.9 19.7 -1.9 11.4
Nov 2.9 -6.0 3.8 -4.2 5.3 -2.5 13.2 0.8 3.3
Dec 14.0 -10.8 -6.0 -1.9 4.1 -4.0 5.0 8.9 -2.6
2013
Jan 25.0 -1.1 10.9 0.8 -0.7 -1.5 7.5 21.6 9.4
Feb 21.7 -13.8 -8.6 4.2 -0.9 -6.6 7.9 -15.8 6.4
Mar 10.0 -7.6 0.2 7.0 1.6 -4.6 2.4 3.2 -3.0
Apr 14.7 5.4 0.4 1.7 -0.6 -2.0 -3.4 -1.9 11.4
May 1.0 -6.0 3.0 -1.1 1.6 -8.9 0.8 0.7 3.5
Jun -3.1 9.2 -1.0 -4.6 4.4 1.8 -3.1 8.6 12.8
Jul 5.1 -0.9 2.7 11.6 - - - 1.6 -
Exports (US dollars)
Percentage changes on a year earlier unless otherwise stated
China Brazil Korea India Mexico Russia Turkey Taiwan Poland
2012
Jul 4.6 -5.1 -5.4 -1.1 0.0 10.6 -6.5 -3.3 -11.2
Aug -2.5 -13.9 -9.7 -5.1 5.6 1.8 -0.3 -7.9 -15.4
Sep 2.4 -13.7 -6.1 5.1 0.1 2.0 -2.3 1.2 -8.5
Oct 2.3 1.7 1.6 7.4 6.4 12.0 -2.3 -1.8 3.3
Nov 0.0 -2.5 0.9 6.4 8.7 2.8 1.4 0.1 -1.1
Dec 6.1 -4.5 -5.3 6.3 2.3 6.3 0.2 1.5 -2.3
2013
Jan 29.0 14.7 3.9 6.1 6.7 13.3 8.2 22.2 4.1
Feb -15.2 3.1 -10.7 2.6 2.7 7.6 15.2 -8.5 -4.7
Mar 14.0 1.4 -1.9 -2.9 4.8 0.5 2.9 0.2 -3.4
Apr 16.8 15.7 -0.3 11.0 0.4 11.3 15.7 -8.2 2.9
May -0.3 4.0 -5.2 7.0 4.2 -6.2 7.9 -8.0 -3.6
Jun -0.7 1.5 -2.5 -0.4 5.3 3.6 6.0 6.8 4.5
Jul 10.9 25.2 3.0 -6.2 - - - -7.6 -
Imports (US dollars)
Percentage changes on a year earlier unless otherwise stated