india election results - what lies ahead
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India has just completed a historic election. The results are staggering. While many expected that the Narendra-Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) would come to power, the landslide that materialised was a surprise to many. Clearly, Modi’s emphasis on the economy, ease of doing business, infrastructure and job creation struck home. With voters handing him a decisive victory, it is now Modi’s turn to deliver. His pro-business slant and reputation as an ace administrator mean that expectations are sky-high. In the latest edition of ‘Public Affairs Round-up’, MSLGROUP identifies what is likely to be the new government’s list of priorities. Modi has his work cut out. None of the challenges before – from cutting red tape to clearing critical projects – will be easy. It will require more than numbers in Parliament; an ability to take people along will be vital.TRANSCRIPT
P A Rublic ffairs ound-up
MSLGROUP IN INDIA
May 2014 | Vol 2 | Issue 2
India under Narendra Modi: Expectations soar, challenges persist
The results
The numbers
Who said what
Contents
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On May 16, an electoral tidal wave swept across India. The Narendra-Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won a staggering 336 of the 543 seats in India’s Lower House of Parliament, the Lok Sabha. Modi, who is from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), won over India Inc as chief minister of Gujarat and the expectations of his government are sky-high.
Modi, often accused of a strong anti-Muslim prejudice and of doing little to prevent the communal riots in Gujarat in 2002, focused on development and job creation as his election planks, plugging into the disquiet over the slowing economy and rising prices.
India under Narendra Modi: Expectations soar, challenges persist
It was as finance minister in the early 1990s that outgoing prime minister Manmohan Singh kickstarted reforms, untangling red tape and governmental roadblocks to release the potential of India. Despite that, the economy remains far from unfettered. The bureaucracy remain slow-paced by international standards and resistant to change; permits for critical projects are stalled and – especially over the past few years – faith in the India story has evaporated fast.
Modi’s priorities should be clear. The World Bank has ranked India 134 out of 189 countries on its ease of doing business index. Unless the new prime minister can change this fast, the economy will take a body blow.
He has his work cut out. Economic growth was projected to be less than 5%, turning the heady days of 8%-9% into a distant memory. The Planning Commission estimated last year that poverty levels were at 22% – that’s more than 240 million people. Sub-5% growth won’t be good enough to lower these numbers.
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Remove roadblocks: Unless businesses can achieve cost efficiency and get speedy permissions, investment and growth will remain distant dreams. Achieving this will be tough because of the often-reluctant bureaucracy and strong lobbies of vested interests. An overburdened judiciary is adding to the problem. India has a backlog of more than 31 million cases, many of them related to business and large infrastructure projects. More judges, courts and arbitration systems are the need of the hour.
Labour reforms: With more than half its population under 35 years of age, employment generation may well be make or break for Modi. China successfully turned itself into the manufacturing hub of the world. India needs to walk down that path too. However, laws that make it tough for manufacturers to reduce workforce when required are a disincentive. ‘Time’ magazine recently reported that Goldman Sachs estimated that if India overhauled its labour laws, 110 million new jobs could be created over 10 years, boosting GDP growth by 1.2%.
Food inflation and agriculture: Rising prices of essentials was cited as one of the main causes of the United Progressive Alliance’s (UPA’s) downfall. Retail inflation stood at 8.31% at end of the 2013-14 financial year. Urgent measures are needed on the supply side, including the weeding out of intermediaries in the farm-to-plate supply chain. A hike in procurement prices and investment in irrigation are vital, as are better storage facilities. The weather department has predicted a poor monsoon this year. A fall in supplies could make food prices soar and make the government lose
Here’s what Modi’s priority list would look like:
face. It might even lead to a loss of confidence in it, undermining its authority in implementing fast-track reforms.
Project clearances: The BJP has identified massive investments in infrastructure – ports, railways, roads – and has also promised quick clearances of stalled projects. Modi needs to deliver on these promises.
Fiscal discipline: Implementing all of the above without piling up a deficit will require a deft balancing act. The current account deficit can be deflated through an aggressive focus on exports. Financial sector reforms will be required, especially to curb banks’ non-performing assets and to introduce a uniform tax structure across India. While in the Opposition, BJP-ruled state governments had refused to implement the uniform Goods and Services Tax. Now, it will require political adroitness to ensure that non-BJP governments accept the reforms Modi tries to implement. Subsidies and social sector schemes will require an overhaul, too, to reduce wastage and to ensure against an unmanageable fiscal burden.
Modi rode to office on a wave of euphoria and high expectations, based on the endorsements he received as administrator of Gujarat. However, managing a country will not be as easy. The challenges listed above will not be as easy to tackle – not just because of their scale but also because of the greater intensity of the opposition.
The sobering realities of realpolitik at the national level will require grit – no matter the number of seats held – and statesmanship.
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The results
Bharatiya Janata Party 282 31
Indian National Congress 44 19.3
All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam 37 3.3
Trinamool Congress 34 3.8
Biju Janata Dal 20 1.7
Shiv Sena 18 1.9
Telugu Desam Party 16 2.5
Others 92 36.5
Total 543 100
Vote share (%)Party Seats
Source: eciresults.nic.in
Source: eciresults.nic.in
NDA 336
UPA 60
Alliance Seats
Kenya 2013
Malaysia 2013
South Africa 2014
India 2014
Mexico 2013
US 2012
Pakistan 2013
Bangladesh 2014
% of registered voters85.9
84.8
73
66.4
63.1
57.5
55
51.4
Voter turnout in recent national elections
Quartz | qz.com Data: Country data, IDEA
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The numbers
2004 Anil Basu CPM Arambagh 5.93
2014 Narendra Modi BJP Vadodara 5.70
1989 Ram Vilas Paswan JD Hajipur 5.04
2009 CM Chang NPF Nagaland 4.83
1991* S Mohan Dev INC West Tripura 4.29
Year Candidate Party Constituency Votes(in lakhs)
Highest margins of victory
* 5.81 lakh was margin of victory for PV Narasimha Rao in the Nandyal bypoll Source: The Times of India
Number of rallies addressed by Narendra Modi between September 15, 2013, when his campaignstarted, and May 10, 2014, when it ended
Number of election-related tweets in 2014
Duration of the voting process. This was the longest after 1952, when voting was spread across 119 days. In 1980, the polls were shortest – a mere threedays
The money pumped in by foreign institutional investors into Indian stock markets after the results on May 16. This was among the highest investments this year, taking the year’s total to $6billion
The distance Modi covered, across 25 states, during the campaign
Number of voters in Uttar Pradesh, the highest inthe country
Ratio of women in the overall voter turnout. In eight states and union territories – Puducherry, Kerala, Manipur, Mizoram, Daman and Diu, Meghalaya, Goa and Arunachal Pradesh – womenvoters outnumbered men
400+ 56 million
35 days
$600 million
300,000 KM
13.4 crore
65%
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Who said what
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"India has won! Bharat ki vijay! Achhe din aane wale hai. (India is victorious. Good days lie ahead.)
Narendra Modi’s tweet proclaiming victory. It was retweeted more than 66,000 times and favourited more
than 41,000 times – a record in India
The Congress party has done pretty badly. There is lot for us to think about and as the VP of the party I hold myself responsible for what has happened.
Rahul Gandhi, after the defeat
India looks set to be the first BRIC to rebound. Overall, the BJP victory should set the stage for a revival of India’s economic fortunes.
Rajiv Biswas, senior director and chief economist, APAC,
IHS Global Insight
With such a decisive mandate, the new government is expected to undertake some bold reforms… The need of the hour is to bring back business confidence through swift and decisive policy making.
Sunil Mittal, chairman, Bharti Group
This is a vote for progress and liberalisation and against policy stagnation. We look forward to the country getting back to solid growth.
Venu Srinivasan, CMD, TVS Motor and Sundaram Clayton
This is a mandate for governance. The immediate priorities must be to resolve issues in existing projects, clear pending receivables to corporates, clarify tax laws, implement Goods and Services Tax and take steps to contain inflation.
Chanda Kochar, MD and CEO, ICICI Bank
To young Indians: Celebrate the privilege of being citizens of a country where you have freedom of expression and the power to choose your rulers.
Anand Mahindra, chairman, Mahindra Group
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Public Affairs Round-up
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