increase from 20% to 50% wind energy coverage · 1 may 6, 2008 - ano meeting with canadian guests 1...

1

May 6, 2008 - ANO 1Meeting with Canadian Guests

Increase from 20% to 50% Wind Energy Coverage

Challenges and Approaches

Antje Orths


Agenda

The Danish Power System – brief overview

Danish Energy Strategy 2025:- Requirements

- Results of Recent Investigations

Perspective

2


one of areas with worldwide highest wind penetrationhigh share of large and small scale CHP

Present challenges with the Danish Electricity System

transit area between hydro and thermalsmall price areas in large markets

TWh

100

200

300

400

500

Boundary: NordPool and Continental market systems

Boundary: hydro/thermal

Boundary: Nordel/UCTE


Challenges of the Future… … and Danish Reality

source: European SMARTGRIDS Technology PlatformEUR 22040, 2006

NORDEL

UPS

UCTE

3


Power Balance 2007

Two synchronous areas:Central power plantsLocal plants

Wind turbines

1000/950 MW 620/620 MW

550 MW950/1500 MW

Consumption 1400 - 3700 MW

Central power plants 3400 MW

Local CHP units 1700 MW

Wind turbines 2400 MW

Consumption 900 - 2700 MW

Central power plants 3800 MW

Local CHP units 650 MW

Wind turbines 750 MW

West:

East:

4100 MW

1400 MW

penetration Wind: 65 … 171%

CHP: 46 … 121%

penetration Wind: 28 … 83%

CHP: 24 … 72%

ex: 41 of prod.

im: 70 of cons.

ex: 43 of prod.

im: 69 of cons.

1300/1700 MW

im-/ export [MW]

Energy Coverage:

West: 24% ; East: 11%

Future: Σ 50 %


Germany: 78 GW peak, upto 36 GW wind (46 %)

Nordic: 69 GW peak load, up to 20 GW wind (29 %)

UK: 65 GW peak, up to 26 GW wind (40 %)

Portugal: 10-12 GW peak, up to 5 GW wind (50 %)

Ireland: 9 GW peak, up to 6 GW wind (60%)

Denmark: 7 GW peak, up to 6 GW wind (90 %)

Recent studies: levelsof wind power studied

Netherlands: 25 GW peak, up to 10 GW wind(40 %)

www.ieawind.org

4


Recent studies in the USA

Minnesota: 6 GW of wind in 20 GW peak load system (30 %)

New York: 3.3 GW of wind in 33 GW peak load system (10 %)

Colorado 1.4 GW in 7 GW peak load system (20 %)

California: 12.5 GW in 64 GW peak load system (20 %)

Texas: 15 GW in 65 GW peak load system (23 %)


Several Types of Penetration Level

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

DK-W DK 2025 a) DK 2025 b) IR 2020 PT UK DE 2015 ES 2011 S

% o

f...

peak load min load gross demand (min load + intercon)

Different ways of presenting the penetration level

today in future

5


35

0 k

m

The Danish transmission system

Konti-Skan

Skagerrak

Teglstrupgård Valseværket

BorupStasevangKyndbyværket

Lyngerup

JersieSpanager

Bjæverskov

HaslevFensmark

Blangslev

Masnedøværket

Eskilstrup

Idestrup

Rødby

VestlollandRadsted

Orehoved

Øster-holm

Stigsnæs-værket Næstved

Hejninge

Rislev

Asnæs-værket

Kalundborg Torslunde

Nyrup

Kirkeskovgård

Ringsted

Nr. Asmindrup

Hovegård

GørløsegårdAllerødgård

Kamstrup

Kon

tek

SperrestrupgårdØlstykke-

gård

Skibbygård

Revsing

Frøstrup

Nors

Nibstrup

AndstBram-drup

Ryttergård

Hatting

Mårslet

Malling

Knabberup

Thyregod

Bredebro

RibeMagstrup

Enstedværket

Sønderborg

Tyrstrup

Bedsted

Herning

Holsted

Idomlund

Karlsgårde

Lykkegård

Sdr. Felding

Struer

Stovstrup

Videbæk

Abildskov

Fraugde

FynsværketGraderup

Odense Sydøst

Svendborg

Bilstrup

Bjørnholt

Tange

Hasle

Mesballe

Mollerup

ÅstrupHornbæk

Moselund

Høskov

Ådalen

Hvorupgård

Ålborg Øst

Bredkær Starbakke

Dybvad

Ferslev

MosbækTinghøj

Vilsted

FredensdalKlim Fjordholme

VendsysselværketSkansen

Håndværkervej

Tjele

TrigeStudstrup-værket

Hørning

Askær

EndrupEstrup-vej Skærbæk-

værket

Kingstrup

Kassø

Vester Hassing

Landerupgård

Loldrup

Horns RevA

160 MW

Nysted165 MW

132 kV132/5

0 k

V

132/50 kV

Sverige

60 kV

København

50 kV

Norge1.000 MW

Sverige740 MW

Tyskland1.200 MW

Sverige1.900 MW

Tyskland600 MW

Mosedegård

Svanemølleværket

Amagerværket

Kastrup kbst.Amager kbst

Avedøreværket

Ishøj

H. C. Ørsted Værket

Bellahøjkbst

Glentegård

BagsværdgårdHareskovgård

Måløvgård

Vejleå

Ejbygård

Vigerslev kbst

Linde-vang

Flaskegård

Brøndby-gård

BallerupgårdDyregård

Konti-Skan

Skagerrak



Lyngerup

JersieSpanager

Bjæverskov

HaslevFensmark

Blangslev

Masnedøværket

Eskilstrup

Idestrup

Rødby

VestlollandRadsted

Orehoved

Øster-holm


Hejninge

Rislev

Asnæs-værket


Nyrup

Kirkeskovgård

Ringsted

Nr. Asmindrup

Hovegård


Kamstrup

Kon

tek


gård

Skibbygård

Revsing

Frøstrup

Nors

Nibstrup

AndstBram-drup

Ryttergård

Hatting

Mårslet

Malling

Knabberup

Thyregod

Bredebro

RibeMagstrup

Enstedværket

Sønderborg

Tyrstrup

Bedsted

Herning

Holsted

Idomlund

Karlsgårde

Lykkegård

Sdr. Felding

Struer

Stovstrup

Videbæk

Abildskov

Fraugde

FynsværketGraderup

Odense Sydøst

Svendborg

Bilstrup

Bjørnholt

Tange

Hasle

Mesballe

Mollerup

ÅstrupHornbæk

Moselund

Høskov

Ådalen

Hvorupgård

Ålborg Øst

Bredkær Starbakke

Dybvad

Ferslev

MosbækTinghøj

Vilsted



Håndværkervej

Tjele


Hørning

Askær


værket

Kingstrup

Kassø

Vester Hassing

Landerupgård

Loldrup

Horns RevA

160 MW

Nysted165 MW

132 kV132/5

0 k

V

132/50 kV

Sverige

60 kV

København

50 kV

Norge1.000 MW

Sverige740 MW

Tyskland1.200 MW

Sverige1.900 MW

Tyskland600 MW

Mosedegård

Svanemølleværket

Amagerværket


Avedøreværket

Ishøj


Bellahøjkbst

Glentegård


Måløvgård

Vejleå

Ejbygård

Vigerslev kbst

Linde-vang

Flaskegård

Brøndby-gård


Discussed Future Locations

Areal ca. 44 km2

Power ca. 200 MW

Discussed Future Locations

Areal ca. 44 km2

Power ca. 200 MW

… and offshore windparks

German plans (DENA study) 2020:

+ 20,000 MW (North & Baltic Sea)

German plans (DENA study) 2020:

+ 20,000 MW (North & Baltic Sea)

Governmental Energy Strategy 2025:

+ 3,000 MW

Governmental Energy Strategy 2025:

+ 3,000 MW


35

0 k

m

The Danish transmission system

Konti-Skan

Skagerrak



Lyngerup

JersieSpanager

Bjæverskov

HaslevFensmark

Blangslev

Masnedøværket

Eskilstrup

Idestrup

Rødby

VestlollandRadsted

Orehoved

Øster-holm


Hejninge

Rislev

Asnæs-værket


Nyrup

Kirkeskovgård

Ringsted

Nr. Asmindrup

Hovegård


Kamstrup

Kon

tek


gård

Skibbygård

Revsing

Frøstrup

Nors

Nibstrup

AndstBram-drup

Ryttergård

Hatting

Mårslet

Malling

Knabberup

Thyregod

Bredebro

RibeMagstrup

Enstedværket

Sønderborg

Tyrstrup

Bedsted

Herning

Holsted

Idomlund

Karlsgårde

Lykkegård

Sdr. Felding

Struer

Stovstrup

Videbæk

Abildskov

Fraugde

FynsværketGraderup

Odense Sydøst

Svendborg

Bilstrup

Bjørnholt

Tange

Hasle

Mesballe

Mollerup

ÅstrupHornbæk

Moselund

Høskov

Ådalen

Hvorupgård

Ålborg Øst

Bredkær Starbakke

Dybvad

Ferslev

MosbækTinghøj

Vilsted



Håndværkervej

Tjele


Hørning

Askær


værket

Kingstrup

Kassø

Vester Hassing

Landerupgård

Loldrup

Horns RevA

160 MW

Nysted165 MW

132 kV132/5

0 k

V

132/50 kV

Sverige

60 kV

København

50 kV

Norge1.000 MW

Sverige740 MW

Tyskland1.200 MW

Sverige1.900 MW

Tyskland600 MW

Mosedegård

Svanemølleværket

Amagerværket


Avedøreværket

Ishøj


Bellahøjkbst

Glentegård


Måløvgård

Vejleå

Ejbygård

Vigerslev kbst

Linde-vang

Flaskegård

Brøndby-gård


Konti-Skan

Skagerrak



Lyngerup

JersieSpanager

Bjæverskov

HaslevFensmark

Blangslev

Masnedøværket

Eskilstrup

Idestrup

Rødby

VestlollandRadsted

Orehoved

Øster-holm


Hejninge

Rislev

Asnæs-værket


Nyrup

Kirkeskovgård

Ringsted

Nr. Asmindrup

Hovegård


Kamstrup

Kon

tek


gård

Skibbygård

Revsing

Frøstrup

Nors

Nibstrup

AndstBram-drup

Ryttergård

Hatting

Mårslet

Malling

Knabberup

Thyregod

Bredebro

RibeMagstrup

Enstedværket

Sønderborg

Tyrstrup

Bedsted

Herning

Holsted

Idomlund

Karlsgårde

Lykkegård

Sdr. Felding

Struer

Stovstrup

Videbæk

Abildskov

Fraugde

FynsværketGraderup

Odense Sydøst

Svendborg

Bilstrup

Bjørnholt

Tange

Hasle

Mesballe

Mollerup

ÅstrupHornbæk

Moselund

Høskov

Ådalen

Hvorupgård

Ålborg Øst

Bredkær Starbakke

Dybvad

Ferslev

MosbækTinghøj

Vilsted



Håndværkervej

Tjele


Hørning

Askær


værket

Kingstrup

Kassø

Vester Hassing

Landerupgård

Loldrup

Horns RevA

160 MW

Nysted165 MW

132 kV132/5

0 k

V

132/50 kV

Sverige

60 kV

København

50 kV

Norge1.000 MW

Sverige740 MW

Tyskland1.200 MW

Sverige1.900 MW

Tyskland600 MW

Mosedegård

Svanemølleværket

Amagerværket


Avedøreværket

Ishøj


Bellahøjkbst

Glentegård


Måløvgård

Vejleå

Ejbygård

Vigerslev kbst

Linde-vang

Flaskegård

Brøndby-gård


… need for a stronger grid

existingexisting

plannedplanned

discusseddiscussed

strong public demand for cables – also on 400 kV level

-> how should the long-term grid structure be like?

6


Solving the Balancing Task Today…

Load Generation

& nationalinternational

Technical Measures

Market Measures

Prepare the Future (R& D)

Flexibility is the Key!

Provide Flexibility Inside the Systemstrong transmission gridmaximize flexibility of thermal unitsstate-of-the-art wind power forecastswork on a new system architecturemarket design (e.g. CHP-to-market)detailed connection requirements

Provide International Flexibility

strong interconnections

well functioning spot- & real time markets (reserve & regulating power)

implement new intraday market

transborder trade of ancillary services

intense international cooperation onmarket and grid issues

DPL

P. E

F

DK2

H

SKCZ

ACH.

NL.

B.

SI

...

.

. .HR

BiH

FYROM

. FRY.

AL.

GR.

BG

.

RO

(UA)..

DE

PL

PTES

FR

DK

HU

SK

CZ

ATCH

NL

BE

SI HR

BA CS

.GR

BG

RO

(UA)

IT

MKAL

DPL

P. E

F

DK2

H

SKCZ

ACH.

NL.

B.

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...

.

. .HR

BiH

FYROM

. FRY.

AL.

GR.

BG

.

RO

(UA)..

DE

PL

PTES

FR

DK

HU

SK

CZ

ATCH

NL

BE

SI HR

BA CS

.GR

BG

RO

(UA)

IT

MKAL

(NORDEL)

TIE-LINES

INTERNAL ELEMENTS


Power quality

Reducedemissions

Area relevant for impact studies

Time scale relevant for impact studies

ms…s s…min min…h years

Voltagemanagement

Local10-50 km

Regional100-1000 km

System wide1000-5000 km Secondary

reserve

Distributionefficiency

Adequacyof power

1…24 h

Hydro/thermalefficiency

Adequacyof grid

Gridstability

Primaryreserve

Task 25

Transmission efficiency

Congestionmanagement

Wind power in the power system:impacts on reliability and efficiency

Grid

Balancing

Adequacy

Source: Holttinen

We have to embrace the full scale

7


System wide

close cooperation within NORDEL

Future Adequacy on Power and Energy

Grid Planning Issues

Common Markets

NFI

FINSN2

NVE

SN3

SN4

JYSDKO

NOS

NMI

NNO

NSY

NST

SN1

JYN

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

DPL

P. E

F

DK2

H

SKCZ

ACH.

NL.

B.

SI

...

.

. .HR

BiH

FYROM

. FRY.

AL.

GR.

BG

.

RO

(UA)..

DE

PL

PTES

FR

DK

HU

SK

CZ

ATCH

NL

BE

SI HR

BA CS

.GR

BG

RO

(UA)

IT

MKAL

DPL

P. E

F

DK2

H

SKCZ

ACH.

NL.

B.

SI

...

.

. .HR

BiH

FYROM

. FRY.

AL.

GR.

BG

.

RO

(UA)..

DE

PL

PTES

FR

DK

HU

SK

CZ

ATCH

NL

BE

SI HR

BA CS

.GR

BG

RO

(UA)

IT

MKAL

(NORDEL)

TIE-LINES

INTERNAL ELEMENTS

Intense international cooperation (NORDEL and UCTE)

to face common challenges


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

1 30 59 88 117 146 175 204 233 262 291 320 349 378 407 436 465 494 523 552 581 610 639 6680

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Wind PredictionDay-Ahead price

MW DKK/MWh

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

1 23 45 67 89 111

133

155

177

199

221

243

265

287

309

331

353

375

397

419

441

463

485

507

529

551

573

595

617

639

661

MW

0

100

200

300

400

500

600DKK

Wind PredictionDay-Ahead Price

Effektive control of CHP units according to market basedprice signals helps security of supply and economics by better utilisation of resources

February 2006

February 2004 Decentral combined heat and Power (CHP) units

start to operateaccording to price

signals(~ 1.2 GW)

Utilization of domestic control possibilities- both, for security of supply and economic aspects!

8 January 2005

8


Heat (MJ/s)

El (MW)

Backpressure Curve

Extraction Area

operation point

10-20%

Regulation capability of Backpressure Device:

50…90%: 4% of full load per minute

<50; > 90%: 2% of full load per minute

Myth: Minimum generation capability of coal-fired power stations limits wind power penetration

Connection requirement

coal-fired steam power stations capable of operating down to 35% Prated

Reality

Some coal-fired power stations can be operated down to 10% Prated

Electrical boilers are added to decouple the electricity and heat demand


The Importance of Wind Power Forecasting

In a system with an installedwind capacity of 2,400 MW means:

“Fresh breeze” (8-10,7m/s) a production between 600 and 1.600 MW

A deviation of ±1 m/s a forecast fault of ± 370 MW

Wind Forecasts have a significant influence on the utilization of

the system, price-building and the value of wind power plants

9


Myth: Wind Turbines cannot contribute to ancillary services


Pkan

Pbør

Pkan

Pbør

Absolute Production Constraint

Pkan

Pbør

Power Gradient Constraint

Delta Production Constraint

Grid Connection Specifications- utilization of Wind Turbines technical possibilities to reduce demand on

or to contribute to System Service

børP

Pkan

børPbørP

PkanPkan

Stop regulation

3 5

6 7

Requirements on WT`s technical characteristics and operation mode increase their value for the system

10


150 kV

∼

∼

∼

∼

60 kV 60 kV 60 kV

10 kV 10 kV 10 kV

60 kV 60 kV

60 kV

10 kV

10 kV 60 kV

10 kV

60 kV

Input Output

Cellcontroller

Planning the Future

Cell controller

Pilot Project

Project at

”System Design& Development”

Head: Per Lund


Danish Stragegy

reduction of use of fossil fuels by 15% (from 2006)

stagnation of total energy consumption

increase of energy saving to 1,25% annually

increase of use of renewable energy sources to at least 30%

doubling of wind energy usage from 3000 -> 6000 MW~50 % energy coverage

trippling of bio fuel usage in the transport sector to 10%

Heat pumps displace oil heat system in 100000 houses

11


Analysis of implementing 50% RE-el: Example- prerequisites for 2025 -

- Jammerbugten: 3 x 200 MW

- Anholt: 2 x 200 MW

- Horns Rev: 5 x 200 MW

Alternative locations:

- Ringkøbing Fjord: 5 x 200 MW

- Kriegers Flak: 3 x 200 MW

+ 1000 MW more windpowerland


MW MWToday Today + 3.000 MW

Consequences of additional 3,000 MW for the system?

Optimal utilization of both, domestic flexibiltiy and the international power markets is a prerequisits to maintain security of supply and maximize the value of wind power.

uge uge

Topic of System Plan 2007:Analyses of ”A visionary Danish energy policy 2025”

12


1.700 MW1.300 MW

600 MW

1.000 MW

730 MW

600 MW

1.500 MW950 MW

depending on wind forecast

Alternative 0 Alternative 1

1.700 MW1.300 MW

600 MW

1.600 MW

730 MW

1200 MW

2.500 MW2.500 MW

Affects on

- Energy and power balance; Electricity transmission grid; Fuel consumption; Environment

Assumptions 2025

- 35 TWh (2005) -> 38 TWh (2025) – even with strengthened savings

- 6,400 MW thermal power stations / 6,500 MW wind power capacity

Investigations on the Future

System Plan 2007


Critical surplusNet exports to Nordic regionCons., heat pumps and electric boilersConsumption, normal

ShortageNet import from GermanyProduction, windProduction, local plantsProduction, primary plants

0

10

20

30

40

50

TWh

60

70

Cons. andexport

Productionand imports

Alternative 0

Cons. andexports


Alternative 1

Energy balance

critical surplus : 0,7 TWh

13


Critical surplusNet exports to Nordic regionCons., heat pumps and electric boilersConsumption, normal

ShortageNet import from GermanyProduction, windProduction, local plantsProduction, primary plants

0

10

20

30

40

50

TWh

60

70

Cons. andexport


Alternative 0

Cons. andexports


Alternative 1

Energy balance+ SK4 (600MW), + DE (+ 2500 MW), + STB2 (600MW)

critical surplus : 0,7 TWh


Fuel Consumption and Emissions

0

50

100

150

200

250

2005 Alt. 0

PJ

OilBiofuels

Alt. 1

300

350

Coal Natural gasWaste

0

5

10

15

20

25

2005 Alt. 0 Alt. 1

30

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

TonnesSO og NOx

35 35

1,000 TonnesCO 2

CO2 SO2 NO x

2

CO2 emissions per unit produced decline from 500 g/kWh to 420 g/kWh

14


+ 3000 MW windpower in 2025 (50% coverage)

100%


+ 3000 MW windpower in 2025 (50% coverage)

100%

15


Comparison On- and Offshore: Concentration of Wind Power => larger fluctuations

Gradients up to 15 MW/min (9%/min)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

MW140

00:00 06:00 12:00 18:00 00:00

160 MW offshore (single site)~200 MW onshore (dispersed)

+ 3000 MW wind power in 2025 (50 percent coverage)


Solving the Balancing Task in Future…

Load Generation


Power Markets

Transmission Side

Power Production Side

Demand Side


Provide Flexibility Inside the SystemEMS- System for WT ProductionGeographical Dispersion of WT / move Grid Connection PointsMobilization of Reserves, RegulationResources, new Facility Types Upgrade Transmission Capacity (HighTemperature Lines)

Provide International Flexibility

Market Coupling (NordPool – EEX) etc

Improvement of Intraday TradingPossibilities

Transborder Trade of Ancillary Services

Expand Transmission Grid & Interconnections

16


Solving the Balancing Task in Future…

Load Generation


Power Markets

Transmission Side

Power Production Side

Demand Side


Further Development of Price Dependent Demand

Utilize and strengthen the Coupling of the Power System with Heating Systems: Immersion Heaters and Heat pumps

Develop and exploit Coupling of the Power System to the Transport Sector (Electric Vehicles as Price Dependent Demand)

Introduction of Energy Storage: Hydrogen, Compressed Air Energy Storage, batteries

Euro/MWh

MW


+ 3000 MW wind power in 2025 (50% penetration)

Coupling of Systems

Transport Gas Transmission

Electricity TransmissionHeat Transmission

Hydrogen & Biofuel Electricity Production CHP Heat Production

Electr.-Consumption

Electr.-Storage

Foreign Country Heat Pumps

Electric Boilers

Heat Storage

Heat Consumption

17


Summary/Conclusion

Large scale integration of wind power calls for exploiting both,domestic flexibility and international power markets. Both means are prerequisites for maintaining security of supply and for maximizing the value of wind power.

Integration measures of large-scale wind power involves:

- measures on the market

- measures on the production side

- measures on the transmission side

- measures on the demand side

Utilizing and further development of couplings of the wind powerdominated systems to district heating systems, the transport sector (via electric vehicles) and energy storage systems are vital for future successful large- scale wind integration.


Challenges

Increased demand for capacity reserves and ancillary services

New guidelines for overhead lines and cables may substantially increase network tariffs

Increasing need for regional planning and coordinated investments

Activating the local grids

Possible introduction of negative spot prices

18

May 6, 2008 - ANO 35Meeting with Canadian Guests Horns Rev

Thank you !

www.energinet.dk

increase from 20% to 50% wind energy coverage · 1 may 6, 2008 - ano meeting with canadian guests 1...

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