Improving Human Well-Being on a Resource-Limited Planet – Can we Do It?

Professor Sir David KingChair, Future Cities Catapult, London

Director, Cambridge Kaspakas

Senior Science Advisor, UBS

Chancellor, University of Liverpool

Chief Scientific Adviser’s work

• Reactive – Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD)– BSE– Natural Hazards– Avian flu

• Proactive and strategic– Global warming– GM Science Review– Horizon Scanning– Post 9/11 resilience and detection– African Development– Flu pandemic

The Loess Plateau, China

Source: CSIRO

Source: EARTH’S HOPE The Lessons of the Loess Plateau - John D. Liu, EEMP www.eemp.org

Loess Plateau: The Mother River

21st Century Challenges

Conflict and

terrorism

Water resource

Energy security and supply

Health and developmen

t

Food production

Climate change

Ecosystems

Minerals

Population – the driver

Conflict and

terrorism

Water resource

Energy security and supply

Food production

Climate change

Ecosystems

Minerals

Population – the driver

Total Population of the World in Billions

Source: IIASA

Middle Class*

*Middle class here defined as daily per capita spending of between $10 and $100 in PPP terms

• 1.8 billion middle-class consumers today

• 3 billion more middle-class consumers expected by 2030

• 90% of that growth coming from the Asia-Pacific region

Rising Middle Class

Source: McKinsey Global Institute 2011

MGI Commodity Price Index (years 1999-2001=100)

Source: McKinsey Global Institute 2011

“Circular Economy”

Source: Ellen MacArthur Foundation

Source: 2030 Water Resources Group; Charting our future water needs. A new economic framework to decision making; Nov. 2009

Global Water Demand

Global Food Demand

Source: FAO

Source: Marco Longari/AFP/Getty Images, Khaled El Fiqi/EPA

The Arab Spring

Source: Chuquicamata in Chile

Copper Reserves

Oil Production: Has Oil Passed its Tipping Point?

Source: K. James/Bloomberg/Getty

Volume of conventional oil discovered

Volume of conventional oil consumed

Billion

s o

f b

arr

els

[G

b]

Year

50

40

30

20

10

2000198019601940

0

19201900 2020 2040 2060

Source: N.A. Owen, O.R. Inderwildi and D.A King, ‘The status of conventional world oil reserves - Hype or cause for concern?’ (2010) Energy Policy, doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2010.02.026

Conventional Oil Supply and Demand

Forecasted demand 1.2% p.a. growth

Crude Oil Price versus Crude Oil Production from 1998 to present

Source: Murray, J. and King, D. (2012) Oil’s Tipping Point has Passed, Nature, Volume 481, 433-435

Impact of Oil Price Volatility on Economies

Source: Z, Ebrahim O.R. Inderwildi, D.A. King, 2012: Macroeconomic Impacts of Oil Price Volatility

The Global Flow of Energy

Source: J.M. Cullen and : J.M. Allwood, University of Cambridge Energy Policy, Volume 8, Issue 1 doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2009.08.054    

Energy Technologies

Institute• Public-Private partnership

between UK Government and industry

• BP, Shell, EDF, E:On, Caterpillar Inc, Rolls Royce, S&SEG all core partners

• Will invest over £1bn in energy research, design, demonstration and development over 10 years

• Looking to develop links with other countries

389 ppm

Interglacial period

Glacial period

Carbon dioxide

Temperature

Source: Fedorov et al. Science 2006, 312, 1485 Source: ML Design.  From "The Complete Ice Age: How Climate Change Shaped the World" edited by Brian Fagan, Thames & Hudson Ltd., London, 2009

60 million years ago

40 million

20 million 0.5 million

Present

175ppm

200ppm

275ppm

250ppm

Carb

on

d

ioxid

e

2.5 million

2 million

1 million1.5 million

5

4

3

2

1

0

225ppm

3 million

400,000 years ago 300,000 200,000 100,000 Present

Tem

pera

tur e

0ºC

-2ºC

-4ºC

-6ºC

-8ºC

-300ppm

-325ppm

δ1

8 0

(p

pt)

Tem

pera

tur e

Observed Global Temperatures

Sea Level and Temperature Measurements

Source: Met Office & Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Liverpool

European Temperatures 1900 – 2100

Source: Hadley Centre

Destruction of forests

Source: World Research Institute

Protection Areas

CAPE COD

Source: U.S. National Marine Fisheries Service

Foresight projects

Brain Science, Addiction and Drugs

Detection and Identification of Infectious Diseases

Intelligent Infrastructure Systems

Tackling Obesities: Future Choices

CognitiveSystems

Flood and Coastal Defence

Exploiting the Electromagnetic Spectrum

Cyber Trust and Crime Prevention

Sustainable Energy Management

and the Built Environment

Mental Capital and Wellbeing

Source: Foresight Future Flooding 2004

• Catchment wide Storage

• Land-use planning

• Realigning Coastal Defences

Flood and Coastal Defence Foresight

‘water has an economic value…absence of a water management system costs more than the implementation of

such a system’

On average, every £1 currently invested in new and improved flood risk management assets reduces the long-term cost of flooding and coastal erosion

damages by around £8.

Investment in Water Infrastructure

Source: Resource, 2012

Source: Environment Agency, 2009

Collective response

Global governance

Sustainable consumption

Science, technology, innovation and imagination

The Paradigm Shift

A Twenty First Century Renaissance

Global Action on Global Warming • IPCC, 1988• United Nations Framework Convention on climate change, 1992• Kyoto, 1997• UK Government’s 60% target, 2003; then 80% in 2007• EU: Emissions trading, 2004• G8+5, Gleneagles, 2005

(2007)

Business as usual (2009)

The Rise in Emissions to 2100

Source: Adapted from Defra

Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions2009 (Tonnes)

Source: International Energy Statistics

Largest Interregional Fluxes of EmissionsEmbodied in Trade (Mt CO2 y−1)

Source: Davis and Cladeira (2010) Consumption-based accounting of CO2 emissions, PNAS

Source: King, Richards and Tyldesley (2011) International Climate Change Negotiations: Key Lessons and Next Steps

Timeline of Climate Change Action

20301990 2000 2010 2020

1992 UNFCCC formation

1997 Kyoto

Protocol

2001 Marrakesh –

Kyoto Protocol implementation

rules agreed

2005 Kyoto

Protocol enters

into force 2012 Kyoto I

ends2010

Cancun Agreement

2009 Copenhagen

Accord

National and Regional

Commitments

Global Process

First A

ccor

d Com

mitm

ent

perio

d fo

r 76

natio

ns

2009

100

head

s of s

tate

s at

Copen

hage

n

2003 UK

unilaterally declares

60% emissions reduction target for

2050

2004 UK Internal

ETS established

2005 European

Union adoption of

the ETS

2005 Gleneagles G8+5National:

UN:

2008

UK Clim

ate

Chang

e Act

2011 Durban Platform

Source: Adapted from Marchal et al., 2011

Emissions Trajectories from 2010-2050 under BAU Scenario and a Global Cap-and-Trade System

National Actions on Climate Change

Annex I countries are rated based on submissions pertinent to the Cancun Agreements. ‘Very good’: meet IPCC recommendations, Annex I: 25 - 40% reduction by 2020, Non-Annex I: submitted NAMA, 15-30% below BAU

by 2020, or vocal in pressing for action.

Source: King, Richards and Tyldesley (2011) International Climate Change Negotiations: Key Lessons and Next Steps

National Action: Rwanda

Historical Development of Advanced Economies

Imported goods

Innovation

Science, Technology, Engineering

Manufacturing

Offshore Manufacturing

Smart green advanced

manufacturing sector

Innovation

Science, Technology, Engineering

Emergence of Smart Green Advanced Manufacturing Sector

The International FusionProject: ITER

Source: Culham Centre for Fusion Energy

Plastic photovoltaics

Richard Friend

Source: Cambridge University under a programme supported by the EPSRC and the Carbon Trust

Low Carbon Vehicles

Source: Gordon Murray Designs

Online Electric Vehicle (OLEV)

Source: Dr. Nam Pyo Suh, KAIST

Source: Aviation and the Environment March 2010

Hybrid Airship

People vs. Cars

Source: Courtesy of Enrique Penalosa

Economy

Environment

Quality of Life

Integration

Tra

nspo

rt

Wat

er a

nd W

aste

Ene

rgy

Hea

lthca

re

Edu

catio

n

Sec

urity

Com

ms

Bui

ldin

gs

Qualityof

Life

LowImpact

Economy

Progress in China

• 2003 - Scientific Outlook on Development put forward

• 2005 - Bureau took climate change seriously – limiting fossil fuel in

their development

• 2012 - 15th November – Changed their constitution

‘Unsustainable Boom’ Equitable wealth distributionInstabilities due to resource scarcity

‘Renaissance World’Good use of

technologyBehavioural transition

Accounting for common good

‘The Frog Boiler ’Degraded planetary systemResource scarcity

‘Gates and Ghettoes’Only low level of the population achieves

well-beingSociety in reverse

State of Resources and Global Commons

Human Well-being

Ecosystems and Human Well-Being Scenarios

Ecosystem Rehabilitation: China’s Loess Plateau

Source: EARTH’S HOPE The Lessons of the Loess Plateau - John D. Liu, EEMP www.eemp.org

1997 2005