41 Crisis Response Journal 10:1

Within just a century, humanity’s established pattern of urban-rural settlement that stretches back

thousands of years will have undergone a complete polar reversal. In 1950, 70 per cent of people lived in urban settlements and less than a third in urban environments. By 2050, the UN estimates that the reverse will be true: just one third of the world’s population will live in rural areas, with the rest being city dwellers.

Today, we have 28 megacities, home to some 453 million people, the largest of which include Tokyo, Delhi, Shanghai, Mexico City, Mumbai and São Paulo.

But the fastest growing urban agglomerations are medium-sized cities – those housing one to fi ve million inhabitants – along those that have fewer than one million inhabitants, mostly in Asia and Africa.

Inextricably meshedThe world’s urban areas have seen rapid growth before, of course, but not on such an unprecedented scale and, today, we have the added pressures of climate change, along with the increased scarcity of energy and water supplies, fi nancial networks that are inextricably meshed on an international scale, and greater pollution and transportation issues. Our dependencies and vulnerabilities are manifold, sometimes known, sometimes unexpected.

But we also have human creativity, allied with ever-evolving technology.

The British Technology Strategy Board recently established a programme to set up and oversee a new network of technology

smart, resilient cities

Propelling us into the future

Emily Hough speaks to Sir David King to fi nd out more about the Future Cities Catapult initiative, a global laboratory and hub set up to help shape the urban development of the future

42 Resources, links, pictures, videos and much more are available for subscribers in our digital and online editions www.crisis-response.com

and innovation centres, named the Catapult Programme. There are seven Catapults: Satellite Applications; Cell Therapy; Transport Systems; Renewable Energy; Connected Digital Economy; High Value Manufacturing; and Future Cities. Each Catapult brings together business, scientists and engineers to work on research and development to transform ideas into new products and services to generate economic growth. In essence, this is similar to the Fraunhofer network set up to help rebuild Germany’s economy after WWII, but it differs in that whereas the Fraunhofer network is university-led, the UK system is driven by business. The aim is to act as a bridge between universities and early stage research, and businesses that are carrying out product development.

The importance that is accorded to resilience and climate within the Future Cities Catapult is clearly underlined by the appointment of Sir David King as its Chairman.

From 2000 to 2007, Sir David was Chief Scientifi c Advisor to the UK Government, and worked closely with the Prime Minister and Cabinet on key scientifi c issues, including that of climate change. Professor King was instrumental in setting up the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment at the University of Oxford to address global challenges. The UK Foreign Secretary appointed Sir David as his permanent Special Representative for Climate Change in September 2013.

When asked about the biggest challenge or risk facing tomorrow’s cities, experts appear sanguine about global population growth, which is stabilising. According to Sir David: “The true challenge is the proportion of the population that can be described as ‘middle class’, defi ned as those who spend between $10 and $100 a day,” he comments.

In 2000, the global middle class population was around one billion, one sixth of the world’s total. Last year, this fi gure passed two billion, and the extrapolation forward, based on the best analysis available, is for the middle classes to top fi ve billion out of a global population of eight billion by 2030.

This rising global middle class is a large consumer of resources. And we know that our planet’s resources are fi nite.

“Of course, this growth is good news,” insists Sir David. “Everyone wants to be middle class.” But it brings two massive challenges – the fi rst being how to provide the commodities – water, land availability, food and energy – required by this rapid middle class expansion.

Commodity prices are roughly two-and-a-half times higher than they were in the

1980s, and far, far greater than in Victorian times. “That is a direct result of the rising middle class creating a greater demand and the resource scarcity issue,” he says.

Nor can we ignore the effects of a rapidly burgeoning middle class on the global commons. “Climate change is overlaid on this rapid growth, as well as the issue of rapid ocean acidifi cation,” he explains. “Eighty per cent of our cities are on coastlines. Those cities depend very heavily on ocean marine life for protein, and all of the latest detailed studies on the acidifi cation of the oceans indicate that marine life is under heavy threat.”

“The bottom line is that the challenges facing us in the 21st Century are qualitatively different to the challenges we managed successfully in the 20th Century,” Sir David continues. “Going forward in time, the biggest risk associated with urban development is that most of the rapid emerging middle class is going to be city-based.

“There is going to be a massive and rapid demand for urban dwelling space and the risk is that this happens in a random and unplanned way.”

Indeed, it is already occurring: “Take the example of New Delhi, which has recently expanded with a large new, middle class, relatively expensive housing development. As it turns out, the area that was developed has very little water provision, so water is being sent in using tankers,” he says.

MagnetismTo avoid future similar issues in future developments, a massive capability in terms of best practice – or even next practice, as well as planning, will be needed. In many ways the old days of urban development are past, adaptation is the new imperative. While cities are a magnet, drawing people off the land, they must make use of their capability to provide an engine for growth.

“If we get this right, we will be creating new urban environments that put human wellbeing fi rst,” says Sir David, describing cities where people can walk and cycle to most of the amenities they require for their daily lives and where they have access to mixed facilities: houses, green parks for leisure, shopping, and work. “The paradox is that the European cities built in the Middle Ages before the arrival of the car make the ideal city for the 21st Century,” he continues, noting that rising oil prices are also pushing aside the notion that cars are the only future means of transport. “We need to be looking at walkability, ‘cyclability’ and mass transit as the means of getting around.”

Vertical farming – a solution to city food supply?

As the world’s population becomes increasingly urbanised the pressures upon agriculture to supply the necessary food are becoming critical, writes Professor Tim Heath, Professor of Architecture & Urban Design at the University of Nottingham.

Vertical farming could provide an innovative solution to this challenge, particularly in cities that are some distance from farmland or in areas with poor or no fertile agricultural land. Such a farm would involve the cultivation of crops on multiple levels within high-rise buildings in urban areas. Heath & Shao (2014) suggest that this method of agriculture can enable year-round crop production; use 70 per cent less water and no agro-chemicals; avoid the adverse environmental factors that affect yield and quality; and eliminate the fi nancial and environmental costs of importing food into urban areas.

It is over 20 years since the concept was fi rst proposed and there are still only a few small-scale prototypes primarily due to technological and fi nancial viability (Heath et al 2012). The concept is, however, now practical and the technologies required for plant growth are available with Despommier (2010) describing vertical farms as: “A fundamental solution” to the world’s urban food needs.

To make the leap from concept to practice will, however, require the support of governments or pioneering organisations. Although only likely to be a sensible solution in cities with limited access to good quality agricultural land, vertical farms can make a huge contribution to food security and could transform the everyday lives of city dwellers. Indeed, cities with over 10 million residents require up to 7,000 tons of food to be imported and vertical farms could be one of a package of more sustainable alternatives to meeting this requirement. Hopefully, in the near future we will see large-scale vertical farms, together with less commercial urban agriculture such as communal and individual allotments, balcony gardens, etc producing food in the heart of cities.

■ Despommier, D (2010). The Vertical Farm: Feeding the World in the 21st Century, Picador, London;

■ Heath, T, Zhu, Y & Shao, Y (2012): Vertical farms: a high-rise solution to feeding the city? CTBUH 9th World Congress;

■ Heath, T & Shao, Y (2014): Can Vertical Farms Solve the World’s Urban Food Needs? The Conversation, www.theconversation.com.

Matthew Humphreys | University of Nottingham

The bottom line is that the challenges facing us in the 21st Century are qualitatively di� erent to the challenges we managed successfully in the 20th Century

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“The complete elimination of waste,” is another area that cities of the future must get to grips with. “Waste should be looked upon as a recyclable resource. I mean normal detritus from human living, human solid waste and the recovery of liquid waste from humans too,” he elaborates. It is a natural progression to consider such recycled waste within an agricultural context. “Cities have to become more independent of their agricultural environment as much as possible. These urban areas need to look at producing market foods, especially those that have a very short shelf life. We must have small parts within cities allocated to farming.”

So the good news is that if all this is done well, cities will become self-sustaining and resilient and, just as importantly, pleasant places to live and work. Not so positive is the fact that time is a luxury we cannot afford.

“We have a very short time period from the beginning of this century before we have multiplied the amount of urban dwellers by a factor of fi ve. This is a massively rapid transformation on a scale we haven’t seen before,” explains Sir David. The trouble is, such transformation will require both behavioural and infrastructural change, neither of which are likely to happen overnight.

But there are beacons of progress shining across the globe. “We must cast around the world and look for best practice. For example, Singapore is one of the cities I would set out for best practice with regards to water management.

“Every drop of rain is treated as a precious asset and all water, including human waste, is recycled and turned back into drinkable water.”

He also lists London as a good example of traffi c management, but the transformation of Bogotá in Colombia is even greater, according to Sir David, who describes how Mayor Enrique Peñasola transformed the city in three years at very little cost.

Bogotá was a city choked by traffi c, its fi ve lane highways in and out of the city clogged with vehicles. The Mayor decreed that the outer lane would be reserved entirely for pedestrians; the second lane for bicycles only; the third lane was allocated for buses that make frequent stops; the fourth was reserved for those that only make a few stops; and the fi fth lane was for cars.

The private sector stepped in very quickly with: “Extraordinary buses that look more like trains. When the bus stops, large numbers of doors open up and people get on and off very quickly.” Today, people can get into work on time, congestion has evaporated from the centre of the city and whereas before pedestrians had to dodge into the street to avoid parked cars, they are reclaiming the pavements.

South Korea provides another good case, says Sir David, who highlights far-sighted government investment into creating new jobs and providing economic engines for growth.

Which brings us onto the Future Cities Catapult. “We’re in one of the world’s greatest cities – London – creating a global hub and a

global urban laboratory where we can co-ordinate, bring together and integrate best practice, using the best available technology.

“We have high speed computers to model existing structures of cities, then work these models through to visualise how these developments would work in practice, so we can alter the changes that have been made until what emerges from these models achieves our objectives.”

Sir David was appointed Chairman of the Future Cities Catapult in May 2013; it now has a full board and nearly 50 staff, but this is set to increase soon. The Catapult’s home is in Clerkenwell, London, in a large building which, when refurbished, will not only have room for the laboratory, but also plenty of space to act as a global hub. “We have a full range of people around the world involved in urban development coming into this space to work with us,” Sir David tells me. “Not only do we have to bring together political decision-makers, mayors, councillors and government offi cials, but key development agencies, fi nanciers, development banks, private sector companies, universities...”

So, what is the desired outcome in, say, fi ve years?

“This is a key question,” he replies. A fi ve-year plan is absolutely critical.” Having gathered, “A bunch of brilliant people,” the challenge now is getting them to pull together.

“We are a start-up, so we have to be patient, while keeping our eye on the big picture. We intend to stimulate the private sector to be well positioned on the global scene and, fi ve years hence, we will be engaging more and more of our private sector companies in these enterprises. In Britain, Europe and the rest of the world.”

The Catapults, which are not for profi t, receive generous government funding – around £10 million a year for fi ve years – but Sir David envisages more: “In fi ve years, I imagine our staff will be well in excess of 100, we will have raised another £20 million a year for operational purposes, we will have a total funding of three times as much and we will be engaged in a number of major urban projects around the world.

“We hope to have exemplar development in India, China, Africa and in Europe,” he continues, explaining that although the Future Cities Catapult will not be developing these projects, it will be closely involved in facilitating and working the process to benefi t other cities and projects.

“We want cities that can be used as best case examples that others can learn from,” Sir David emphasises by way of conclusion. CRJ

smart, resilient cities

Sir David King, Chairman of the Future Cities Catapult, will be a speaker at this year’s World Cities event, to be held in London, October 9-10, 2014. See page 78 for more details

44 Resources, links, pictures, videos and much more are available for subscribers in our digital and online editions www.crisis-response.com

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Top names from organisations like Interpol, Europol, UN-Habitat, the Rockefeller Foundation and C40 Cities will join those from corporations such as PwC, Arup, Hiscox, Vodafone and RBS to discuss over two days the top-line issues and best practices from around the world. Visit our dedicated website to read the latest world cities blog post: Resilient Cities: High Performers and Underachievers.

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HEAR - from international thought leaders in developing better, safer, cities LEARN - about the threats that face the modern complex city SHARE - with your peers the issues facing organisations and authorities PROTECT - the vital supply of infrastructure from dangers, from cyber terrorism to population growthREFLECT - on the past successes through case studies, including the 2012 Olympics

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