Improving Data on Immigrant’s Legal

StatusJennifer Van Hook

If a tree falls in a forest and no one hears it, does it make a

sound?

Light is better than shadows

“Only by ensuring that scientific data is never distorted or concealed to serve a political agenda, making scientific decisions based on facts, not ideology, and including the public in our decision-making process will we harness the power of science to achieve our goals.”

--Barack Obama, Sept. 4, 2012

Outline

• Limitations of data on unauthorized immigrants

• Methodological Advancements

• Applications: MPI Data Hub

Acknowledgements

• Collaborators: James Bachmeier, Randy Capps, Michael Fix, Donna Coffman, Ofer Harel

• Grants: P01 HD062498 “The Mexican Children of Immigrants Program Project” RC2 HD064497. “Generating Linked NCHS and OIS Data for Immigrant Health and Mortality Research ”

Department of Homeland Security (DHS)

How we know what we know

Residual Method

Surveys

Residual Method

Unauthorized FB =

Total FB (Census) – Legal FB (Admin data)

Legal Permanent Res-ident (LPR) Aliens

28%

Naturalized Citizens (formerly LPRs)31%

Refugees7%

Temporary Legal Res-idents

4%

Unau-thorized Migrants

30%

Legal Status of the 37 million Foreign Born in 2005

1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009

5

10

15

Unauthorized Foreign Born, 1979-2009Millions

2 Million 2 Million

3 Million

12 Million

11 Million

Sources: Various reports by Passel, Woodrow, Bean, Van Hook, Hoefer, Rytina, Warren

Limitations

Residual Method

Produces Aggregated estimates only

Surveys

How honest are people about their legal status?

Small sample sizes

Are unauthorized migrants captured in official surveys?

YES

But they are not fully covered…

Do people answer questions about legal status?

Usually

Year

of A

rrival

Citize

nship

Green

Car

d

Asylum

Tem

pora

ry V

isa

Repor

ted

Weigh

t

Health

Insu

ranc

e

Visit

Dr.

Last 1

2 Mos

.0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

3.7

5.5 5.5

9.09.7

5.54.8

12.4

Missing Values, Mexican-born Mothers, 2001 LAFans

Among all Foreign born:

Missing on Migration Status: 4.3%Reported as Unauthorized: 26%

Do people tell the truth?

Mostly

SIPPHot deck

SIPP logical imputati

on

Pew DHS

Mexico 51.6 56.1 56.0 57.0

Other LA 20.3 21.5 22.0

Asia 17.7 12.4 13.0

Europe/Canada

6.1 7.5 6.0

Other 4.3 2.5 3.0

New Methods for Using Survey Data

Cross-survey multiple imputation

Solves the small sample-size problem

Cross-survey multiple imputation

Small Survey (SIPP)

Unauthorized Status

Common variables

Big Survey (Census)

?

Common variables

Unauthorized Status (imputed)

MPI Data Hub