Improved Marine Meteorological Services for Social Benefits: A Belt and Road Perspective

Improved Marine Meteorological Services for Social Benefits: A Belt and Road PerspectiveLong JiangUNICEF Chinahttp://www.unicef.cn/en/ljiang@unicef.org

1

OutlineSustained and emerging requirementsGlobal Agendas Improved Marine Meteorological Services (MMS)Way forward

2

Sustained and emerging requirementsDaily lifeShipping, fishing, tourismDRRFood SecurityClimate Change

3

Sustained and emerging requirements

4

Sustained and emerging requirements

Sustained and emerging requirements - DRR

Source: Reuters /BBC.com6

Sustained and emerging requirements DRR

7

Sustained and emerging requirements Food securityBy 2050, catches of main fish species are expected to decline by up to 40% in the tropics, where livelihoods, food and nutrition security strongly depend on the fisheries sector.FAO estimates that agricultural production must rise by about 60% by 2050 in order to feed a larger population. Climate change is putting this objective at risk.

8

Sustained and emerging requirements Climate Change

9

10

OutlineSustained and emerging requirements

Global Agendas

Improved Marine Meteorological Services (MMS)

Way forward

11

Global Agendas SDGs

17/169/224 Capacity Development12

Improved MSSGlobal Agenda SFDRR

13

Global Agenda Paris AgreementReaffirm the goal of limiting global temperature increase well below 2 degrees Celsius, while urging efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees;Establish binding commitments by all parties to make nationally determined contributions (NDCs), and to pursue domestic measures aimed at achieving them;Commit all countries to report regularly on their emissions and progress made in implementing and achieving their NDCs, and to undergo international review;Commit all countries to submit new NDCs every five years, with the clear expectation that they will represent a progression beyond previous ones;

14

Global Agendas Paris Agreement (Contd)Reaffirm the binding obligations of developed countries under the UNFCCC to support the efforts of developing countries, while for the first time encouraging voluntary contributions by developing countries too;Extend the current goal of mobilizing $100 billion a year in support by 2020 through 2025, with a new, higher goal to be set for the period after 2025;Extend a mechanism to address loss and damage resulting from climate change, which explicitly will not involve or provide a basis for any liability or compensation;Require parties engaging in international emissions trading to avoid double counting; andCall for a new mechanism, similar to the Clean Development Mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol, enabling emission reductions in one country to be counted toward another countrys NDC.

15

OutlineSustained and emerging requirements

Global Agendas

Improved Marine Meteorological Services (MMS)

Way forward

16

Joint Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology

IOC programmes - GOOS, IODE, GLOSS, Tsunami WS, ICAM, etc.WMO programmes- WWW, Meteo services, WCRP, GAW, etc.

JCOMM

17

JCOMM strategic role

18

JCOMM: the organization

19

Observational outcomesOperational OceanForecasting Systems(e.g., Waves, Storm Surges, Sea Ice, SST, ocean circ., etc.)Ocean Climate projections nd assessments(e.g., Waves, Storm Surges, Sea Ice, SST, etc.)Downstream Services(e.g., MSI/GMDSS, MPERSS, SAR, DRR, etc.)

In situ and space ObservationsNew understanding of ocean processes and climate

Observations need to be Integrated in value-addedproducts such as forecasts, analyses, Projections

Downstream servicesare required to customize the value-addedProducts to specific users

Observations should be Collected with well defined Science-based and International procotols To support the value-addedchain

20

In situ and space ObservationsOperational OceanForecasting System(GDPFS for Ocean)(e.g., Waves, Storm Surges, Sea Ice, SST, ocean circ., etc.)Ocean Climate(e.g., Waves, Storm Surges, Sea Ice, SST, etc.)Services(e.g., MSI/GMDSS, MPERSS, SAR, DRR, etc.)

Users

IMO and IHO

ICSOil and Gas IndustryFisheriesEtc.(IOC/WMO/UNEP GOOS)

21

World Weather Watch

22

In the Observations Program Area-OPA:Three major Expert Team Groups: SOT (VOS+SOOP), DBCP, GLOSSLinks with all major oceanographic monitoring programs (ARGO, GO-SHIP, OceanSites, IOCCP, EGO)Real Time met-ocean data transmission and data management protocolsJCOMMOPS support center

23

From Data Management Program Area:Expert Team on Data Management Practices (joint with IODE)Expert Team on Marine ClimatologyLinks with IODE, Ocean Data Standards, Ocean Teacher AcademyOpen problems:Interoperability across NODC, Oceanographic Services and WMO systemLinkages with users

OCG5 - September 2013Organization of JCOMM

24

From Services and Forecasting Systems Program Area-SFSPA:Expert Team on Marine Safety Services (ETMSS)Expert Team on Waves and Coastal Hazards (ETWCH) Expert Team on Sea Ice Services (ETSI)Expert Team on Operational Ocean Forecasting services (ETOOFS)Open issues:Relationship with ocean users for requirementsIntegrated meteo-oceanographic services and connections with GRAs or ROOSES

OCG5 - September 2013Organization of JCOMM

25

Maritime Safety Information (MSI)JCOMM Expert Team on Maritime Safety Services (ETMSS) Global Maritime Distress and Safety System (GMDSS, +IMO+IHO)World-Wide Met-ocean Information and Warnings Service (WWMIWS) METAREA/NAVAREAJoint IMO/IHO/WMO ManualonMaritime Safety InformationWMO Manual on Marine Meteorological Services (WMO-No.558 & WMO-No.471)

26

DBCP (Drifting Buoy Network)Status (April 2016)Recent AchievementsFoci for the Next Year1522 drifting buoys providing data to the GTS11 countries contributing44% of drifters report data to the GTS in less than 60minIncrease the number of drifters with air pressure measurementsImprove the drifter density distribution coverage Improve the data timeliness of drifting buoys to the GTS

100% of the drifting buoys are reporting data on the GTS in BUFR format 57% of the drifters are providing Barometric Pressure data to the GTSKPIs for drifting buoy network are finalized and are reported monthly

KPI: Key Performance Indicator

27

DBCP (Moored Buoy Network)

Status (April 2016)412 moored buoys providing data to the GTS11 countries operating moored buoys83% of the coastal/national moored buoys provide wave measurements to the GTS

Moored buoy metadata is collected in a common format and available to the communityKPIs are finalized for coastal/national MB and reported monthly35% of Moored buoys (Tropical and Coastal/National MB) report data on the GTS in BUFR format

Recent AchievementsFoci for the Next YearGet the entire moored buoy network real-time data in BUFR TM315008 format to the GTS Integrate the moored buoy metadata system into the new JCOMMOPS web tool

28

Ship Observations Team-VOSStatus (April 2016)Recent AchievementsFoci for the Next Year

European joint AWS project validated: 400 new automated stations will be produced and installed shortlyThird Party Class: More active ships without recruitment by a national weather agencyMeeting of international PMOs in Chile to foster cooperationFinalize transition to table driven code (BUFR) on GTSHarmonize with other panels in need of volunteer shipsReview metadata requirements (structure, data centre) Migrate to unique ID scheme ~2000 operational ships~240 automated (AWS), ~440 high-quality (VOSClim)25 active countriesCoverage depends mainly on existence of shipping lines~20 ASAP upper-air stationsAll VOSClim KPIs met (# ships, # observations, # suspects)

29

Argo

Status (April 2016)3829 Operational Floats29 active countriesSome flat/declining national contributionsProgress for Europe10000 obs/month (70% of highest quality)85% obs. within 24h

G7 Science Ministers StatementDesign reviewed (initial 3200 to global 3800) Good coverage (~70%) I.O. to progress. P.O. getting old.1+ paper per day loggedGlobal ocean heat gain observed with unprecedented accuracyRecent AchievementsFoci for the Next YearProj: max to 4000 then degradationBGC (900) to be funded (cost x2)Deep Array and regional enhancements pilotedTechnology to progressCharters crucial for sustained coverage

30

GLOSSStatus (May 2016)Univ. of Hawaii updated websiteNew technologies: Technical report on the use of microwave sensors at tide gaugesRecent AchievementsFoci for the Next YearContinue upgrading stations with GPSContinue upgrading stations with microwave sensors168 stations with current data45 stations with some data77 stations no reporting data

31

Way forward

32

Regions vulnerable to coastal flooding

Nicholls & Cazenave, 2010

33

FloodingThe most reported extreme event: 2001-2010For many Caribbean countries, flooding is the most common natural hazard affecting socioeconomic development WMO Flood Forecasting InitiativeSurges (particularly driven by waves) and rainfall can both create significant problems

34

Exposure to coastal inundation is large and growingPopulation is attracted to coasts by an abundance of local resourcesGrowing coastal population Urbanising coastal zoneTourism, recreation, retirementIn many parts of the world, the population is directly exposed to the coastal hazards and this will increase with Climate Change and Sea Level Rise. A reactive approach to adaptation increase the vulnerability.

Vulnerability(early warning, protection infra.)Hazards(storm surges, heavy rain)Exposure(Population in the coasts) DisastersDisasters are more likely when Hazards and exposed population overlap with Vulnerability.

3535Coastal areas of the world face a range of risks related to climate change (IPCC 2007).Anticipated risks include an accelerated rise in sea level, an intensification of cyclones,and larger storm surges among others.

End-to-end Coastal Inundation Management

Policy / Management

Forecasting and Warning sytems

Coastal Flooding

Sea Level Rise / Climate ChangeTsunamisStorm SurgesExtreme Waves

ICAMTidesHydrological FloodingSea Level ObservationsSeismic Obs.Wind, hydrometeorological ObservationsReal-time Data transmisison + dissemination of productsModelling (Forecasting / Hindcasting)DEM, BathymetryPost-event survey, MappingSocio-economic analysesPlanningRegulations / PolicyAdaptation

Regardless the difference in scale, required observations and mode of operation,

Common requirements re. observing networks, data transmission, and process.

multi-hazard approach (particularly for sea-level related coastal hazards)36

Demonstration Project: CIFDPTo meet challenges of coastal communities safety and to support sustainable development through enhancing coastal inundation forecasting and warning systems at the regional scale. : building improved operational forecasts and warnings capability for coastal inundation, that can be sustained by the responsible national agencies

Identify and support end-user needs;Encourage full engagement of the stakeholders and partners in the CIFDP from early stages, for the successful development and implementation of this project;Transfer technology to the adopting countries; Facilitate the development and implementation of warning services;Support coastal risk assessment, vulnerability and risk mapping;Assist improved and informed decision-making for coastal inundation management

Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration Project37

CIFDP: Benefit for Implementing CountriesUpon completion of national sub-projects of CIFDP:countries will implement an operational system for integrated coastal inundation forecasting and warning, providing objective basis for coastal disaster (flooding) management; contributing to saving lives, reducing loss of livelihood and property, and enhancing resilience and sustainability in coastal communities.Upon completion of each Phase of the Project:countries will be provided with valuable input to the assessment and awareness of the issues of coastal inundation management within its governments.

38

Strategy for CIFDP implementationCIFDP is implemented through national sub-projects, launched for a country that meets the essential requirement: national agreement;CIFDP sub-projects are designed based on users perspectives and requirements, considering existing and available open source techniques. Final products of the Demonstration Project should be operated and maintained by national operational agencies which have the responsibility/authority for coastal inundation warnings;The procedures/best practices developed through sub-projects should be applicable to other (neighbouring) countries with common issues and interests, and should be closely linked to and cooperating with related projects and activities.

39

CIFDP ImplementationNatural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis. World Bank, 200540

40

Project Scoping and Preparation:

Definitive National Agreement (DNA), training, and initial data inventoryProject Planning and Design:

Stakeholder workshop, establish National Coordination Team (NCT), regional buy-in, initial project design/setup (Mexico demo) System Development:

Digital elevation model (DEM), SLOSH/wave grid creation and quality control, and model development Develop Training modulesSystem Validation:

MOMs/MEOW creation, QA/QC, and model validation

Deploy online training modules

Phase 0 Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Project Scoping and Preparation:

Definitive National Agreement (DNA), training, and initial data inventoryProject Planning and Design:

Stakeholder workshop, establish National Coordination Team (NCT), regional buy-in, initial project design/setupSystem Development:

model development Develop Training modulesSystem Validation:

QA/QC, and model validation

Deploy online training modules

System Integration and Training:

System implementation, project evaluation, specialized training workshop

Project evaluation report and application

Way forward

Source: Chinadaily42

Way forward for Belt and Road CommunitiesIdentify 3-5 requirements for MetOcean services, AND key stakeholders Identify challenges to address those requirements, such as infrastructure, personnel, funds, internal and external coordination, etc.Existing capacity and collaboration at national, regional and international scales.

Improved MMSIntegrated and coordinated observations, data management, forecasting and services systems

Note: Simplified plot, interfaces and interconnectivity not illustrated. 44

AcknowledgementGlobal Ocean Observing System, GOOSWMO-IOC Joint Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology, JCOMM

JCOMM colleagues, GOOS colleagues, WMO&IOC colleagues45

Thank you for attentionQuestions?