Implementing the nexus in the MENA region

Holger Hoff, Nadim Farajalla, Kerstin Fritzsche, Phil Graham, Annabelle Houdret

Stockholm Environment InstitutePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

American University of BeirutAdelphi

German Development InstituteSwedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute

Climate Adaptation Mitigation Workshop WWW 4 September 2013

• Climate – yet another pressures in the MENA region

• Nexus principles and opportunities

• MENA – a case for a nexus approach

• Initial examples from Lebanon & Jordan

• A proof-of-concept nexus study in the MENA region

Outline:

Climate – one more pressure in the MENA region

MENA: most water (and land) scarce, subject to severe resource degradation, e.g. desertification, groundwater depletion

climate projections largely agree on decrease in total precipitation, on top of increasing temperatures and more/stronger extremes

resource productivities remain low

GHG emissions are rising rapidly

with projected major impacts on water resources, agriculture and ecosystems

RCP 8.5

RCP 4.5

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Regional Initiative for the Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources and Socio-Economic Vulnerability in the Arab Region

LAS

Climate – one more pressure in the MENA region

CORDEX state-of-the-art regional climate scenarios

producing some 15-20 climate projections(RICCAR)

2081

-210

0

Climate – one more pressure in the MENA region

2041

-206

0

very useful product: ensemble means across a large number of GCMs andregional climate models

Climate – one more pressure in the MENA regionclimate change (like other pressures) can affect social stability

more severe and persistent drought after 2005 than ever before

Climate – one more pressure in the MENA regionclimate change (like other pressures) can affect social stability

more severe and persistent drought after 2005 than ever beforecontributed to migration to urban areas, increasing pressure and unrest

MENA: a case for a nexus approach

MENA: a case for a nexus approach

general principles:generating synergies, reducing negative externalities,increasing productivities across resources and sectorsand strengthening resilience

the nexus builds on established integrated approaches , such as:- ecosystem approaches (CBD), e.g. „natural infrastructure“- landscape approaches (World Bank), „improved landscape configuration“- multi-functional systems (IAASTD), e.g. reservoirs,

co-generation of energy and water…..

new: real integration across sectors from the beginning (different from IWRM), and: synthesis of experience, outscaling, transfer

How to do it – nexus solutions

e.g. soil and water conservation for improved green water productivity, reduced irrigation demandand climate resilience

climate-safe land use planningaccounting for change in precipitation, sea level rise etc.

adding energy to the equation (e.g. agricultural intensification)moving towards renewable energye.g. for water pumping or seawater desalination

„seeing is believing“ – making a nexus case at the farmers level

A nexus example from Lebanon

Solar power for irrigation in an organic farm in the Bekaa Valley

12 ha farm, requiring constant water supply for livestock, vegetables, and fruit

~ $50,000 annual electricity costs

frequent and severe power cuts required the farmer to rely on back up generators

switching irrigation system (which consumes most electricity) to solar power (installation cost approximately $76,000) makes the farm self-sustaining and profitable

A nexus example from Jordan

problem: rapid aquifer depletion for irrigation and urban demands

solar farming (photovoltaics) as income alternative for local farmers

reducing water demand and associated fossil fuel demand for pumping

increasing drought resilience

participatory process through Highland Water Forum

Solar energy farming in the Azraq Basin

ACCWaM

Why doesn‘t it happen - institutional obstacles – an example from the Lebanon

Ministry of Energy and Water: national water sector strategy, e.g. identifying agricultural water use efficiency as priority area

Ministry of Agriculture: agriculture strategy doesn’t address water use efficiency

Lack of communication and coordination even within MoEW

Discrepancies between legal and de facto responsibilities among different institutions , e.g. due to embedded UNDP staff in key ministries – „shadow government“

Overlapping responsibilities among different institutions.

Lack of institutional memory in the political system

Institutional entry points

Strengthening bridging institutions e.g.:

- Ministry of Environment, including its climate change unit

- National Council of Environment (different ministries , academics and civil society represented

- Lebanese Center for Energy Conservation (LCEC)

- Lebanese Agriculture Research Institute (LARI),

Using opportunities such as revisions of water, agricultural, energy, climate and other strategies and action plansfor mainstreaming nexus principles,

Institutional (and economic) entry points

Raising interest by identifying economic benefits ( win-wins)and opportunities for equitable development of different regions and sectors

Capacity building to meet knowledge requirements under increasing complexity

Developing economic incentives for reducing negative externalities across resources, sectors and regions, e.g. payments for environmental services

A proof-of-concept nexus study in the MENA region (Lebanon)

Integrating „local demands“ with scientific evidence base

hill-lake construction vs. larger dam construction,integrating perspectives of - water storage- power generation - landscape configuration- land degradation- other ecosystem services and benefits

WEAP – Voltaanother

small reservoirs case

building on USAID, ICARDA et al MENA Water and Livelihoods Initiative (WLI) Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, Syria, Yemen, eventually for outscaling and transfer