Impacts of the economic crisis on migration in EuropeA.P. Russo (URV)

ESPON 2013 Internal Seminar

Territorial Evidence for Cohesion Policy 2014-2020 and Territorial Agenda 20204-5 December 2013 -Vilnius, Lithuania

• Description of main migration patterns before and after the global financial crisis

• Discussion of drivers and barriers to workforce mobility

• The territorial effects of migration

• Perspectives for the future

• Challenges for EU territorial policy

STRUCTURE OF PRESENTATION

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Net Migration rates All age groups, ESPON space, yearly av. 2001-07

GLOBAL SHIFT OF POPULATION FROM EAST/NORTH TO SOUTH/WEST

A wider ‘attraction area’ in the Western Mediterranean

Some MEGAs among the strongest attractors, as well as second tier metro regions

Most other major urban regions in the EU core show a moderate attraction capacity

Moderate to severe population loss in remote regions

Relative population growth in more densely populated regions within national systems

• Three cohorts of populations hinting at different motivations for mobility and territorial effects:

• Mid-career migrants (25 to 49 y.o.)• Economic, quality of place-related drivers central • Core regions, (some) metro areas, the Western Mediterranean favoured

• Pre-employment migrants (16 to 24 y.o.)• Opportunity-driven, social capital, short transits• National capital, second tier and university cities, ‘leisurely’ places

favoured

• Late career, pre-retirement migrants (50 to 64 y.o.)• Quality of life and environmental amenities as main drivers • Intermediate and rural regions close to large cities, ‘warm’ and cheap

regions favoured

MIGRATION BY AGE GROUPS 2001-2007

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POST-CRISIS MIGRATION PATTERS

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• General slow-down of migration trends

• Change in migratory balances in some countries• Some in-migration countries (e.g. Western Med Arc) in 2001-07 have

become net exporters of migration in 2008-10

• Strongest welfare countries in Western Europe have strengthened their in-migration profiles

• Regional divergence accentuated?

• ‘Return’ migration

• Harshening of out-migration in some countries (e.g. Baltic Sea Region)

• Gender and age groups unbalances deepened

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Migration profiles, 2007-2013

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• Drivers of migration: (comparative) economic situations, but also...

• Different forms of territorial capital explain 60% of the overall variation in net migration scoresz

• ‘Pure’ economic drivers are likely to have gone back to be the most relevant in the post-crisis period

• Boosters / barriers to mobility in the ‘policy black box’

• The territorial effects of mobility

• Regions with low GDP / high employment / poor territorial capital endowments have been ‘source’ of migration in 2001-07; however this has not dampened economic activity in 2008-11

• Highly attractive regions had a more torrid downturn in subsequent years

DRIVERS AND TERRITORIAL EFFECTS OF MIGRATION

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PERSPECTIVES FOR THE FUTURE

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• TRENDSPersisting shift of population • from NE to SW• from rural to urban areas• From the periphery to the core

• CHALLENGES‘Brain drain’Pressure on metropolitan

areas Ageing and gender

disequilibria in rural regions

FEEDBACK EFFECTSPopulation movements in and out of regions change regional characteristics driving migration

FEEDBACK EFFECTSPopulation movements in and out of regions change regional characteristics driving migration

PERSPECTIVES FOR THE FUTURE (CONT)

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MOBILITY DRIVERS•Economic •Territorial•Antropic•Social•Etc.

MOBILITY DRIVERS•Economic •Territorial•Antropic•Social•Etc.

MIGRATION TRENDSRegions affected unevenly by migration flows and other mobilities

MIGRATION TRENDSRegions affected unevenly by migration flows and other mobilities

POLICY LEVERSLocally, may enhance attractiveness in one region (with external effects on competing regions and sending regions)At EU level, may alter the distribution of migration drivers to ‘steer’ migration trends towards desired objectives

POLICY LEVERSLocally, may enhance attractiveness in one region (with external effects on competing regions and sending regions)At EU level, may alter the distribution of migration drivers to ‘steer’ migration trends towards desired objectives

• Migration policies as place-based, no ‘one size fits all’ but…

• Regions that become specialist in one form of mobility less resilient to external shocks Consistency and coherence of regional / local efforts?

• Positive effects of human mobility are registered not only in destinations but also in origin regions ‘partnerships’ between regions?

• Non work-related mobility can (also) produce positive externalities in attractive regions (some forms of) tourism as a lever of convergence?

• What role for the EU?

• Migrations matter for smart, inclusive, sustainable development ….

• … but also for territorial cohesion objectives!

INTEGRATING MIGRATIONS IN THE EU TERRITORIAL STRATEGY

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