Impacts of climate change onregions: European territory of

Russia

Anatoly Shvidenko

on behalf of the authors of Chapter 12 of the WG II Contribution to the 4th AR of the IPCC

Europe and European Russia in a global picture

Multi-model projected patterns of precipitation change 2090-2099 to 1980-1999, SRES A1B, WGI Figure 10.9

Climate change 2007: Synthesis Report

Regional specifics and heterogeneity

• On average, major regularities of global climate change over Northern Hemisphere are also observed in Europe and European Russia

• However, there are distinct regional features of climate change within the region and its parts; it generates diverse impacts, different positive and negative consequences and feedbacks, as well as needs of regional adaptation and mitigation measures taking into account current and expected socio-economic condition and the demographic trends

Climate change in European Russia

Regional trends of annual average air temperatureIn 1970-2004 by regions of European Russia and empirical forecast by 2025

Region 1 2 3 4 5 6Trend (oC/10 y) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 Forecast - 0-0.5 0-0.5 - - 0.2-0.5

Correlation coefficients between global and regionalair temperature in 1900-2004 (R), first (R1) and second(R2) half of 20th century by regions

Region 1 2 3 4 5 6R 0.42 0.59 0.70 0.66 0.69 0.76R1 0.44 0.11 0.24 0.06 0.05 0.11R2 0.53 0.81 0.85 0.76 0.70 0.83

Source: Anisimov et al. 2007

Relative runoff changes

Projections of climate, cryosphere, and terrestrial ecosystems

Modeled mean annual temperature at the permafrost surface in Northern Eurasia (Romanovsky et al. 2007).

1980-2000 2080-2100

PERMAFROST

1981-2000

2081-2100 B1

2081-2100 A2

Dynamics of permafrost as follows from INM RAS climate model experiments: in 1981-2000 (top), 2081 - 2100 under scenario В1 (middle) and in 2081 - 2100 under scenario А2 (bottom) (Lykosov et al. 2007)

Land cover feedback in north: Two possible

scenarios of land cover change after the

permafrost thaw and it began thaw:

Wetlands

Steppe

Increasing climate variability and extreme weather events at different temporal and spatial scales: expected frequency and severity of heat waves;

numbers of days with heavy precipitation etc.

Summer (June to mid-August) 2003 heat wave: JJA temperature anomaly

of 3 to 5oC in most southern and Central Europe

Regions with more humid conditions (blue), regions where potential forest fire danger has increased in the 20th century (red), the region where agricultural droughts have increased (circled), and the region

where prolonged dry episodes have increased (rectangled).

Major wheat producing

area in Northern Asia

Changes in the surface water cycle over Northern Eurasia that have been statistically significant in the 20th century

Mescherskaya & Blazhevich (1997 updated), Dai et al. (2004), Zhai et al. (2005), Niu and Zhai (2008), Groisman et al. (2005, 2007), Groisman and Knight (2007)

Main expected impacts of climate change in Europe during the 21st century, assuming no adaptation

Main expected impacts of CC in Europe during the 21st century, assuming no adaptation

Key vulnerabilities

Global change impacts productivity and biogeochemical cycling of forests

0.5 - 3 3.01 - 5 5.01 - 7 7.01 - 9 9.01 - 11 >11

30 - 200 201 - 300 301 - 400 401 - 600 601 - 800 801 - 960

Live biomass

NPP

Major drivers impacted productivity of forestsclimate change• climate change• CO2 fertilization effect• nitrogen deposition• disturbance (fire and insects)• forest management

Empirical estimate of NPP 297 g C m-2yr-1

Average NPP of 17 DGVMs 338 g C m-2yr-1

(Shvidenko et al. 2008)

Empirical estimate of increasing productivity onaverage + 0.5% per year during 1960s-2005(Alexeyev & Markov 2003; Shvidenko et al.2007)

Statistically significant change of structure of live biomass of Russian forests in 1960-2005

0.01

0.1

1

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

0.75

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

1.05

1.1

1.15

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

NDVI

Above ground wood

Green partsRoots

Dynamics of ratio of LB to growing stock(red-stem wood, blue-roots, green-foliage)

(average data of 3745 sample plots)

Dynamics of the ratio for all Russian forests(normalized to the values of 1983)

Increasing risk of disturbances

Three major drivers of accelerating disturbances in forests: variability of climate, anthropogenicfactors and insufficient governance

Fire, insects, windbreaks, combined impacts

DISTURBANCES: Vegetation & Forest Fires in Russia

2003(integrated multi-sensor remote sensing data)

Burned area: 23 million ha (including ~18 million ha on forest land)

Consumed biomass: 505 Tg

Carbon released: 255 Tg C

Emissions 740 Tg CO2

70 Tg CO 2.3 Tg CH4

1.6 Tg NMHC 13.8 Tg C particles 2.6 Tg NOx

During last 10 years area of vegetation fire (above 2/3 – on forest land) exeeded 10 million ha

9

DYNAMICS OF FIRES NUMBERS AND BURNED AREA (PROTECTED TERRITORY OF RUSSIA)

Korovin and Zukkert 2003, updated

Carbon Fluxes (Tg C) due to disturbance in Russian forests in 1960-2005

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1961

1965

1969

1973

1977

1981

1985

1989

1993

1997

2001

Years

C F

luxe

s (T

g C

) Log

TF

Biotic

Abiotic

Total

Key uncertainties and research needs

• Improved long-term monitoring of climate-sensitive sectors and systems; development of integrated observing systems

• Improvement of climate impact models, development of regional models

• Enhancement of climate change impact assessment in areas with little or no previous investigation

• Understanding of terrestrial biota functioning under multiple stress

• Development of integrated impact models – needs of the corresponding studies with a special emphasis to human dimension and socio-economic aspects

Adaptation & mitigation measures

• The comprehensive evaluation of adaptation and mitigation measures and technologies used in different regions of Europe to reduce the adverse impact of climate variability and extreme meteorological events

• Better understanding, identification and prioritisation of adaptation options in agriculture, aquatic ecosystems, forest management, health services etc.

• Evaluation of the feasibility, costs and benefits of potential adaptation options, measures and technologies

• Quantification of bio-climatic limitations of most important plant species

• Intensification of studies on the regional specifics of adaptive capacity

Implementation

• Identification of populations at risk and the lag of climate change impacts

• Approaches for including climate change in management policy and institutions

• Consideration of non-stationary climate in the design of engineering structures

• Identification of the implications of climate change for water, air, health and environmental standards

• Identification of the pragmatic information needs of managers responsible for adaptation