impacts of climate change on natural resources: sadc 16th ... · source: figure spm.1 in ipcc,...
TRANSCRIPT
Impacts of climate change on natural resources: SADC
region
16th Regional Seminar of the ACP-EU Economic and
Social Group
Windhoek, Namibia
8-9 November 2018 Walters Tubua
United Nations Climate Change secretariat
Outline
• Climate change adaptation: hazards, exposure, vulnerability, risks,
and impacts
• Overview of opportunities for engagement under the UNFCCC
• Some resources (both under and outside the UNFCCC process)
• Some takeaway messages
Risk of climate-related impacts
Source: Figure SPM.1 in IPCC, 2014: Summary for policymakers. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and
Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V.R.
Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S.
MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1-32.
Paris Agreement | Structure
Source - The Paris
Agreement: Analysis,
Assessment and Outlook
Art 4 Mitigation
Art 7 Adaptation
Art 9 Finance
Art 10 Technology
Art 11 Capacity build.
Art 13 Transparency
Art 8 Loss & Damange
Art 5 Sinks
Art 6 Mechanisms
Art 14 - every 5 years stocktake to assess collective progress towards purpose and long-term goals
Art 4 Mitigation
Art 7 Adaptation
Art 9 Finance
Art 10 Technology
Art 11 Capacity build.
Art 13 Transparency
Temperature: observed trends and projections by the IPCC for Africa
Source: Excerpt from Fig 22-1. IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B:Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group
II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Barros, V.R.,C.B. Field, D.J. Dokken, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, T.E. Bilir,
M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds.)]. Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 688.
Temperature: Observed and projected
Source: https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-how-every-
part-of-the-world-has-warmed-and-could-continue-to-warm
Projected change in global mean surface air temperature and global mean sea level rise for the mid- and late 21st century relative to the
reference period of 1986–2005.
Source: Table SPM.2 in IPCC, 2013: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to
the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung,
A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
Precipitation: observed trends and projections by the IPCC for Africa
Projected
changes in
extreme
precipitation at
2°C
(averages of 5
simulations)
Present day
Hunger vulnerability
At 1.5 degrees At 2 degrees
• At 2 degrees C, approx 5.73 billion people could become more vulnerable to food insecurity
than they are at present-day
Source: www.helixclimate.eu
Key risks from climate change and the potential for risk reduction through mitigation and adaptation in Africa
Source: Excerpt from Table 22-6 in IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B:Regional Aspects. Contribution of
Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Barros, V.R.,C.B. Field, D.J. Dokken, M.D. Mastrandrea,
K.J. Mach, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White
(eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 688.
WMO Regional Climate Centres (ACMAD)
Extr. weather; 106
Floods; 84
Precip. change; 82
Droughts; 77
Temp. rise; 75
Sea level; 61
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130
NUMBER OF COUNTRIES
GLOBAL
Ext.
wea
ther
; 44
Flo
od
s; 3
8
Dro
ugh
ts; 3
6
Pre
cip
. ch
ange
; 36
Tem
p. r
ise;
32
Sea
leve
l; 2
5
0
10
20
30
40
50
AFRICA
Extr
. wea
ther
; 30
Pre
cip
. ch
ange
; 24
Flo
od
s; 2
1
Tem
p. r
ise;
21
Sea
leve
l; 2
1
Dro
ugh
ts; 2
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40 ASIA
Extr
. wea
ther
; 28
Flo
od
s; 2
2
Dro
ugh
ts; 1
9
Pre
cip
. ch
ange
; 18
Tem
p. r
ise;
17
Sea
leve
l; 1
3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30 LATIN AMERICA
Climate change impacts and hazards in the adaptation component of
nationally determine contributions (NDCs)
Adaptation priority sectors identified in INDCs
Water; 121
Agriculture; 108
Health; 89
Ecosyst; 75
Forestry; 75
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130
GLOBAL W
ater
; 38
Agr
icu
ltu
re; 3
2
Hea
lth
; 27
Fore
stry
; 24
Eco
syst
; 20
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
ASIA
Wat
er; 2
9
Hea
lth
; 23
Agr
icu
ltu
re; 2
2
Eco
syst
; 19
Infr
astr
; 18
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
LATIN AMERICA A
gric
ult
ure
; 48
Wat
er; 4
7
Hea
lth
; 33
Eco
syst
; 31
Fore
stry
; 31
0
10
20
30
40
50
AFRICA
Beyond 2024 | The Global Stocktake | Adaptation
Communicated
information
Reported
information
Individual
efforts
Collective
efforts
SBSTA
SBI
Other initiatives under the UNFCCC process (opportunities for engagement)
• Koronivia Joint Work on Agriculture
• Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action
• The work of the LDC Expert Group in relation to the formulation and implementation of NAPs also the adaptation committee
• The Nairobi Workprogramme
• Implementation of the Paris Agreement (PA): e.g. Implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs); assessment of collective progress towards the goals of the PA;
• Information reported by Parties in national communication
Some relevant tools: Nairobi Workprogramme
• NWP facilitates and catalyzes the development and dissemination of information and knowledge that
would inform and support adaptation policies and practices, including on natural resources
• A three day LAKI priority setting workshop for Southern Africa identified:
1) Lack of knowledge on the vulnerability of and impacts of climate change on river basins and watershed systems
2) Lack of information on available adaptation options for agriculture
3) Lack of knowledge on the sensitivity of agro-ecological zones across the sub-region to historic and future climate change
4) Lack of knowledge in implementing appropriate climate risk management strategies for agriculture
5) Lack of knowledge on the vulnerability of and impacts of climate change on river basins and watershed systems
• Knowledge platform contains: Adaptation case studies; Methods and tools; Relevant publications,
technical documents, training material and online portals; Latest news on adaptation under UNFCCC
process, and from NWP partner organizations.
• MoU with UN Environment to:
o Support scientific methods for adaptation planning and implementation: e.g., NAPs formulation
o Collaborate on developing and operationalising LAKI to put in place a systematic approach for
identifying, prioritising and responding to adaptation knowledge needs at subregional and
thematic levels
For more information on the NW P:
www4.unfccc.int/sites/nwp/Pages/Home.aspx
Some relevant tools: Knowledge platform
For more information on the NWP:
www4.unfccc.int/sites/nwp/Pages/Home.aspx
Some relevant tools: Economic impact of climate change
https://web.stanford.edu/~mburke/climate/map.php
Some takeaway messages
• There is a need to increase mitigation ambition and step up adaptation
action. The Paris Agreement requires that work to be carried out in cycles
Formulation of adaptation comms/NAPs/NDCs, implement, report, conduct
a collective assessment (global stocktake) à greater focus on monitoring;
• The UNFCCC process has multiple mechanisms to support climate action
including on Finance, Technology and Capacity-building. It also has
information sources and tools useful for climate change planning,
implementation and monitoring/assessing progress made. Other resources
outside the UNFCCC process relevant to African countries are also
available;
• Mainstreaming climate change adaptation into development plans,
strategies and projects has proven to be helpful for coping with already
occurring and impending climate change impacts;
• As per IPCC SR1.5 (October 2018), adaptation measures are mostly in
sync with SDGs. Some mitigation measures may need careful management
to ensure they are not a threat to food security, etc
