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Impacts of Climate Change: Communicable Diseases in Non- Human Animals Ella Burroughs, Madi Bryant, Aley Oberdorf, Shannon Taylor CPSG101 Science & Global Change First Year Colloquium II April 3, 2018 • This graphic depicts the lifespan of apathogen and the period immune response in terms of the infection status within a population • This disease model is known as SEIR, Susceptible- Exposed-Infectious-Recovered • Such models help us understand the behavior of a pathogen in an individual organism, and hopefully the dynamics of an epidemic Bibliography: 1. Al-Shorbaji, F.N., R.E. Gozlan, B. Roche, J.R. Brittton, and D. Andreou. 2014. The Alternate Role of Direct and Environmnetal Transmission in Fungal Infectious Disease in Wildlife: Threats For Biodiversity Conservation, Scientific Reports 5, 10368. Retrieved From https://www.nature.com/articles/srep10368#f2 2. Keeling, M., and P. Rohani. 2008. Modeling Infectious Diseases in Humans and Animals. Princeton University Press; Princeton. 367 pp. 3. Purse, B.V, Mellor P.S. 2005. Climate Change and the Recent Emergence of Bluetongue in Europe. Nature Reviews Microbiology, 3: 171-181. https://www.nature.com/articles/nrmicro1090 4. Raffel, T.R., J.M., Romansic, N.T., Halstead. 2012. Disease and thermal acclimation in a more variable and unpredictable climate. (Links to an external site.) Natureresearch Journal. 3:146–151. 10.1038/nclimate1659 5. Rodder, D., Kielgast, J., Lotters, S. 2010. Future Potential Distribution of the Emerging Amphibian Chytrid Fungus Under Anthropogenic Climate Change, Diseases of Aquatic Organisms, 92: 201-207. Retrieved From http://www.int- res.com/articles/dao2010/92/d092p201.pdf 6. Weldon, C., du Preez, L., Hyatt, A., Muller, R. and Speare, R. 2004. Origin of the Amphibian Chytrid Fungus. Emerging Infectious Diseases 10:2100-2105. • As shown on the left, past climate change has proved beneficial for the Chytrid virus (providing it with warmer, wetter environments in which it thrives) • Scientists have predicted a decline in occurrence of the fungus (Shown to the left • Climate Change will cause the globe to heat up to temperatures too high, and experience precipitation levels too large for the fungus to withstand • We chose Chyrtrid fungus as an example of infectious disease to model our topic because the fungus survives outside of a host for several days (beyond the “Infectious” period of the SEIR model) and has an interesting relationship with climate change… • The graph above depicts the effects of temperature shifts on the prevalence and intensity of Chytrid Fungus in both juvenile and adult frogs. • It also shows the aspect of frog mortality. The graphic show that a temperature increases, intensity of the disease increases as well. • As temperatures rise, the spread of chytrid fungus increases globally. This graphic shows the timeline and concentration of the spread of the fungus. • Another example is Blue Tongue Disease, which effects ruminants (specifically cattle), and causes high death rates. Part of this disease is carried, and transmitted by mosquitoes that feed of of the cattle's blood. • Since part of a mosquitoes lifestyle is spent in warm, wet environments, climate change (with increased temperatures and rainfall) will allow mosquito populations to thrive, and spread even more blue tongue disease.

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Page 1: Impacts of Climate Change: Communicable Diseases in Non ...aoberdo1/CPSG100/impact_poster.pdf · Impacts of Climate Change: Communicable Diseases in Non-Human Animals Ella Burroughs,

ImpactsofClimateChange:CommunicableDiseasesinNon-HumanAnimals

EllaBurroughs,Madi Bryant,Aley Oberdorf,ShannonTaylor

CPSG101Science&GlobalChangeFirstYearColloquiumIIApril3,2018

• Thisgraphicdepictsthelifespanofapathogenandtheperiodimmuneresponseintermsoftheinfectionstatuswithinapopulation

• ThisdiseasemodelisknownasSEIR,Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered

• Suchmodelshelpusunderstandthebehaviorofapathogeninanindividualorganism,andhopefullythedynamicsofanepidemic

Bibliography:

1.Al-Shorbaji,F.N.,R.E.Gozlan,B.Roche,J.R.Brittton,andD.Andreou.2014.TheAlternateRoleofDirectandEnvironmnetal TransmissioninFungalInfectiousDiseaseinWildlife:ThreatsForBiodiversityConservation,ScientificReports5,10368.RetrievedFromhttps://www.nature.com/articles/srep10368#f2

2.Keeling,M.,andP.Rohani.2008.ModelingInfectiousDiseasesinHumansandAnimals.PrincetonUniversityPress; Princeton.367pp.

3.Purse,B.V,MellorP.S.2005.ClimateChangeandtheRecentEmergenceofBluetongueinEurope. NatureReviewsMicrobiology,3: 171-181. https://www.nature.com/articles/nrmicro1090

4.Raffel,T.R.,J.M.,Romansic,N.T.,Halstead.2012. Diseaseandthermalacclimationinamorevariableandunpredictableclimate. (Linkstoanexternalsite.) Natureresearch Journal. 3:146–151. 10.1038/nclimate1659

5.Rodder,D.,Kielgast,J.,Lotters,S.2010.FuturePotentialDistributionoftheEmergingAmphibianChytrid FungusUnderAnthropogenicClimateChange,DiseasesofAquaticOrganisms,92:201-207.RetrievedFrom http://www.int-res.com/articles/dao2010/92/d092p201.pdf

6.Weldon,C.,duPreez,L.,Hyatt,A.,Muller,R.andSpeare,R.2004.OriginoftheAmphibianChytrid Fungus.EmergingInfectiousDiseases10:2100-2105.

• Asshownontheleft,pastclimatechangehasprovedbeneficialfortheChytrid virus(providingitwithwarmer,wetterenvironmentsinwhichitthrives)

• Scientistshavepredictedadeclineinoccurrenceofthefungus(Showntotheleft

• ClimateChangewillcausetheglobetoheatuptotemperaturestoohigh,andexperienceprecipitationlevelstoolargeforthefungustowithstand

• WechoseChyrtrid fungusasanexampleofinfectiousdiseasetomodelourtopicbecausethefungussurvivesoutsideofahostforseveraldays(beyondthe“Infectious”periodoftheSEIRmodel)andhasaninterestingrelationshipwithclimatechange…

• ThegraphabovedepictstheeffectsoftemperatureshiftsontheprevalenceandintensityofChytridFungusinbothjuvenileandadultfrogs.

• Italsoshows theaspectoffrogmortality. Thegraphicshowthatatemperatureincreases,intensityofthediseaseincreasesaswell.

• Astemperaturesrise,thespreadofchytrid fungusincreasesglobally.Thisgraphicshowsthetimelineandconcentrationofthespreadofthefungus.

• AnotherexampleisBlueTongueDisease,whicheffectsruminants(specificallycattle),andcauseshighdeathrates.Partofthisdiseaseiscarried,andtransmittedbymosquitoesthatfeedofofthecattle'sblood.

• Sincepartofamosquitoeslifestyleisspentinwarm,wetenvironments,climatechange(withincreasedtemperaturesandrainfall)willallowmosquitopopulationstothrive,andspreadevenmorebluetonguedisease.

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