ImpactsofClimateChange:CommunicableDiseasesinNon-HumanAnimals

EllaBurroughs,Madi Bryant,Aley Oberdorf,ShannonTaylor

CPSG101Science&GlobalChangeFirstYearColloquiumIIApril3,2018

• Thisgraphicdepictsthelifespanofapathogenandtheperiodimmuneresponseintermsoftheinfectionstatuswithinapopulation

• ThisdiseasemodelisknownasSEIR,Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered

• Suchmodelshelpusunderstandthebehaviorofapathogeninanindividualorganism,andhopefullythedynamicsofanepidemic

Bibliography:

1.Al-Shorbaji,F.N.,R.E.Gozlan,B.Roche,J.R.Brittton,andD.Andreou.2014.TheAlternateRoleofDirectandEnvironmnetal TransmissioninFungalInfectiousDiseaseinWildlife:ThreatsForBiodiversityConservation,ScientificReports5,10368.RetrievedFromhttps://www.nature.com/articles/srep10368#f2

2.Keeling,M.,andP.Rohani.2008.ModelingInfectiousDiseasesinHumansandAnimals.PrincetonUniversityPress; Princeton.367pp.

3.Purse,B.V,MellorP.S.2005.ClimateChangeandtheRecentEmergenceofBluetongueinEurope. NatureReviewsMicrobiology,3: 171-181. https://www.nature.com/articles/nrmicro1090

4.Raffel,T.R.,J.M.,Romansic,N.T.,Halstead.2012. Diseaseandthermalacclimationinamorevariableandunpredictableclimate. (Linkstoanexternalsite.) Natureresearch Journal. 3:146–151. 10.1038/nclimate1659

5.Rodder,D.,Kielgast,J.,Lotters,S.2010.FuturePotentialDistributionoftheEmergingAmphibianChytrid FungusUnderAnthropogenicClimateChange,DiseasesofAquaticOrganisms,92:201-207.RetrievedFrom http://www.int-res.com/articles/dao2010/92/d092p201.pdf

6.Weldon,C.,duPreez,L.,Hyatt,A.,Muller,R.andSpeare,R.2004.OriginoftheAmphibianChytrid Fungus.EmergingInfectiousDiseases10:2100-2105.

• Asshownontheleft,pastclimatechangehasprovedbeneficialfortheChytrid virus(providingitwithwarmer,wetterenvironmentsinwhichitthrives)

• Scientistshavepredictedadeclineinoccurrenceofthefungus(Showntotheleft

• ClimateChangewillcausetheglobetoheatuptotemperaturestoohigh,andexperienceprecipitationlevelstoolargeforthefungustowithstand

• WechoseChyrtrid fungusasanexampleofinfectiousdiseasetomodelourtopicbecausethefungussurvivesoutsideofahostforseveraldays(beyondthe“Infectious”periodoftheSEIRmodel)andhasaninterestingrelationshipwithclimatechange…

• ThegraphabovedepictstheeffectsoftemperatureshiftsontheprevalenceandintensityofChytridFungusinbothjuvenileandadultfrogs.

• Italsoshows theaspectoffrogmortality. Thegraphicshowthatatemperatureincreases,intensityofthediseaseincreasesaswell.

• Astemperaturesrise,thespreadofchytrid fungusincreasesglobally.Thisgraphicshowsthetimelineandconcentrationofthespreadofthefungus.

• AnotherexampleisBlueTongueDisease,whicheffectsruminants(specificallycattle),andcauseshighdeathrates.Partofthisdiseaseiscarried,andtransmittedbymosquitoesthatfeedofofthecattle'sblood.

• Sincepartofamosquitoeslifestyleisspentinwarm,wetenvironments,climatechange(withincreasedtemperaturesandrainfall)willallowmosquitopopulationstothrive,andspreadevenmorebluetonguedisease.