impact of nox emissions in georgia on annual pm2.5
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Impact of NOx Emissions in Georgia on Annual PM2.5. Jim Boylan, Byeong-Uk Kim, Michelle Bergin, Jim Kelly Georgia Department of Natural Resources 9 th Annual CMAS Conference October 12, 2010. Nonattainment in Georgia. 1997 Annual PM2.5 NAAQS. Design value of < 15.0 m g/m 3 - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Impact of NOx Emissions in Georgia on Annual PM2.5
Jim Boylan, Byeong-Uk Kim, Michelle Bergin, Jim Kelly
Georgia Department of Natural Resources
9th Annual CMAS ConferenceOctober 12, 2010
Nonattainment in Georgia
• Design value of < 15.0 g/m3
– Average of 2007, 2008, and 2009 observations
• State Implementation Plans– GA EPD has submitted annual PM2.5 SIPs for
Atlanta, Macon, Rome/Floyd, and Chattanooga
• Fine PM Implementation Rule (72 FR 20586)– “The final rule retains provisions for the State or
EPA to conduct a technical demonstration to reverse the presumptive inclusion of NOx” as a PM2.5 attainment plan precursor.
1997 Annual PM2.5 NAAQS
2002 Design Values for Georgia
SANDWICH technique has been applied to 5-year weighted FRM measurements
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Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 Annual Avg.
Co
nc
en
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n (
g/m
3 ) Crust.
EC
OC
PBW
NO3
NH4
SO4
Blank
CMAQ Modeling Scenarios
• CMAQ modeling scenarios:– 2009 base case with all emissions included
– 100% state-wide NOx reduction (all sources)
– 50% state-wide NOx reduction (all sources)
– 30% state-wide NOx reduction (all sources)
• NOx emission sources include:– Point, Area, On-road, Non-road, Fires, Biogenic
Evaluation Approach• Monitor specific impacts were determined by
taking the difference between the 2009 future design value (with all emissions included) and the sensitivity run design value.
• The modeling results were processed in accordance with EPA’s modeling guidance– SMAT, SANDWICH, and RRFs
• Impacts compared against PSD Significant Impact Levels (SILs) for PM2.5 emissions from a single stationary source– Annual SILs 0.3 g/m3 (which is 2% of the NAAQS)
12-km CMAQ Modeling Domain
100% NOx Reduction in Georgia
- - EPA’s Annual NSR Significant Impact Level (SIL)
Statewide 100% NOx Reduction-1.20
-1.00
-0.80
-0.60
-0.40
-0.20
0.00
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Soils
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H2O
NO3
NH4
SO4
100% NOx Reduction in Georgia
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
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Annual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
100% NOx Reduction
C
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( g
/m3)
Soils
ECOC
H2O
NO3
NH4SO4
Hourly Model Performance for OCYorkville – July 2002
Organic Carbon in July 2002 @ YRK
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7/5/
02 0
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7/6/
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Date
Ab
s C
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ntr
ati
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[u
g/m
3]
-4
-3
-2
-1
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4
Diff C
on
ce
ntra
tion
[ug
/m3
]
OC_02_Typical OC_09_Typical OC dSOMA dSOMB dPSOM dPOM
OC Model Performance
• The CMAQ model shows poor hourly model performance with unrealistically high OC predictions in the early morning hours when the mixing height is low. – It is during these same hours that the model shows large
OC sensitivities to NOx reductions.
• OC modeling is still developing and does not include many import pathways. – Smog chamber studies at Caltech have shown that
reducing NOx emissions can lead to higher SOA production from isoprene, monoterpenes, and aromatic VOC. None of these pathways are currently included in the model.
30% and 50% NOx ScenarioSource Sector 2009 NOx
Inventory
Control Evaluation 2014 Potential
NOx Inventory
2030 Potential
NOx Inventory
EGU Point 97,168.0 Rule (sss) 2015 + Remaining SCR + NG Conversion
35,950.8 35,950.8
Non EGU Point 51,681.7 AirControlNET 27,621.0 27,621.0
On Road Mobile 209,349.2 Fleet turnover 142,353.5 62,804.8
Non Road Mobile
85,732.9 Held Constant 85,732.9 85,732.9
Area
Fire
37,688.9
14,236.6
AirControlNET
Held Constant
36,071.5
14,236.6
36,071.5
14,236.6
Total Inventory 495,857.3 341,966.3 262,417.6
Total Reduction 153,891.0 233,439.7
% Reduction 31.0% 47.1%
50% NOx Reduction in Georgia
- - EPA’s Annual NSR Significant Impact Level (SIL)
Statewide 50% NOx Reduction-0.30
-0.25-0.20
-0.15
-0.10
-0.050.00
0.05
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M2.
5 (
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Soils
EC
OC
H2O
NO3
NH4
SO4
30% NOx Reduction in Georgia
- - EPA’s Annual NSR Significant Impact Level (SIL)
Statewide 30% NOx Reduction-0.30
-0.25-0.20
-0.15
-0.10
-0.050.00
0.05
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Soils
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H2O
NO3
NH4
SO4
30% NOx Reduction in Georgia
-0.30
-0.25
-0.20
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
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Annual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
30% NOx Reduction
C
on
cen
trat
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( g
/m3)
Soils
EC
OC
H2O
NO3
NH4
SO4
EPA’s PSAT Modeling
PSAT 100% NOx Contribution
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P
M2.
5 (
g/m
3)
- - EPA’s Annual NSR Significant Impact Level (SIL)
100% NOx Scenario
• The 100% NOx reduction modeling scenario has a number of issues:– This scenario models unrealistic emission
reduction that are far greater than can be realistically achieved
– Most of the modeling response (75% - 85%) is due to reductions in secondary organic carbon
• SOA pathways are highly uncertain and the model does a poor job of simulating hourly OC temporal variations
Conclusions• GA EPD feels it is inappropriate to evaluate the impacts
from a brute force 100% statewide NOx sensitivity • GA EPD feels that a 30% statewide NOx
sensitivity, a 50% statewide NOx sensitivity, or a 100% PSAT source apportionment run would be more appropriate to evaluate NOx impacts. – 30% statewide NOx 0.11 g/m3 (max. impact) – 50% statewide NOx 0.22 g/m3 (max. impact)– 100% statewide PSAT NOx 0.12 g/m3 (max. impact)
• The above modeling scenarios show impacts below the annual PSD SIL and indicate that NOx is “insignificant” as a precursor to PM2.5 in the Georgia nonattainment areas.
Jim Boylan, Ph.D.Georgia Dept. of Natural Resources
4244 International Parkway, Suite 120Atlanta, GA 30354
[email protected] 404-362-4851
Contact Information