impact of global warming to energy consumption and public health
DESCRIPTION
Impact of Global Warming to Energy Consumption and Public Health. International Conference on Climate Change Authors: K.S. Lam, W.Y. Fung, W.T. Hung, S.W. Pang, Cathy Lee. Content. Trends of temperature and energy consumption in Hong Kong - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Impact of Global Warming to Energy Consumption and Public Health.
International Conference on Climate Change
Authors: K.S. Lam, W.Y. Fung, W.T. Hung, S.W. Pang, Cathy Lee
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Content
• Trends of temperature and energy consumption in Hong Kong
• Relationship between ambient temperature and power consumption
• Relationship between ambient temperature and Malaria/Dengue Fever
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HKO Headquarters
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HKO Temperature
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Tsim Sha Tsui Ambient Temperature (Yearly average)
y = 0.0095x + 4.0169
R2 = 0.1827
y = 0.0163x - 9.3065
R2 = 0.4562
21
22
23
24
25
1885 1905 1925 1945 1965 1985 2005
Deg
ree
C
Pre-development Urbanization
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Extreme Records of Tsim Sha Tsui’s Ambient Temperature
Hot years Cold years
Year Average
C
Year Average
C1 1998 24.02 1 1893 21.45
2 2002 23.92 2 1886 21.46
3 1966 23.83 3 1885 21.59
Mean
(114 yr)22.65
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Hong Kong also warming
• 0.9 to 1.5ºC in the last century. (Ding XL, 2002).
• Tsim Sha Tsui warming rate is higher than the global rate.
• Urbanization effect on top of Global warming.
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Impact of Global Warming on Energy Consumption
in Hong Kong
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Hong Kong Monthly Electricity Consumption
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Tera
Joul
es
Domestic Commercial Industrial Total
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2003 Electrictiy Consumption in TJ
Month
Temperature °C
Domestic Commercial
Jan 16.1 1884 6142
Feb 18.5 1960 5795
Mar 19.0 1811 6212
Apr 23.9 1986 6674
May 26.9 2766 7749
Jun 27.7 3424 7932
July 29.6 4239 8833
Aug 28.8 4767 8838
Sep 27.6 4113 8440
Oct 25.3 4059 8312
Nov 22.2 1347 7231
Dec 17.6 2008 6678
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Domestic Electricity and Temperature
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
10 15 20 25 30 35C
TJ
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Domestic Electricity and Temperature Regression
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
10 15 20 25 30 35C
TJ
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Domestic Electricity and Temperature Correlation
y = 26.12x2 - 994.54x + 11240
R2 = 0.7792
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
10 15 20 25 30 35C
TJ
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Commercial Electricity and Temperature Correlation
y = 209.24x + 2465.2
R2 = 0.8405
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0C
TJ
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Domestic Electricity consumption
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
10 15 20 25 30 35
Average temperature (oC)
Ele
ctri
city
con
sum
ptio
n (T
J)
Second order of polynomial Fitting
Commercial Electricity consumption
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
10 15 20 25 30 35
Averaged Temperature (oC)
Ele
ctri
city
co
nsu
mp
tio
n (
TJ)
Linear Fitting
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Averaged Temperature (oC)
1990 1996 2002 Trendline (1990) Trendline (1996) Trendline (2002)
Linear Fitting
Same pattern for different years
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Year Constant Coeff. of T R2 Sign. F
1990 833.41(0.00)
114.00(0.00)
0.937 0.000
1996 1607.3(0.00)
161.70(0.00)
0.902 0.000
2002 1941.1(0.00)
223.04(0.00)
0.860 0.000
• Commercial: statistically significance.• The best fitted curve: Linear
Correlation:Commercial electricity
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When Temperature increase by 1C2003 Temp C Commercial
electricity TJT+1 C TJ at T+1
Jan 16.1 6142 17.1 6041
Feb 18.5 5795 19.5 6545
March 19.0 6212 20.0 6650
April 23.9 6674 24.9 7675
May 26.9 7749 27.9 8303
June 27.7 7932 28.7 8470
July 29.6 8833 30.6 8868
Aug 28.8 8838 29.8 8701
Sep 27.6 8440 28.6 8449
Oct 25.3 8312 26.3 7968
Nov 22.2 7231 23.2 7319
Dec 17.6 6678 18.6 6357
Total 88836 91346
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Impact on electricity consumption
Average % change in electricity demand
Sectors T+1 T+2 T+3
Domestic 9.2% 20.2% 33.1%
Commercial 3.0% 6.1% 9.1%
Industrial 2.4% 4.8% 7.2%
Total 4.5% 9.6% 15.2%
• The averaged percentage changed is calculated from 15 years (1990-2004)
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Impact due to Global Warming (electricity consumptions)
Domestic Commercial Industrial
Total Electricity consumption in 2002
33,394 TJ 87,606 TJ 16,112 TJ
Temperature increased by
1oC HK$0.85 b HK$0.74 b HK$0.11 bHK$1.70
billion
2oC HK$1.88 b HK$1.47 b HK$0.22 b HK$3.59 b
3oC HK$3.07 b HK$2.24 b HK$0.33 b HK$5.64 b
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Impact on Energy Consumption in Hong Kong
• For 1oC, 2ºC and 3ºC temperature rise, the economic impact on total electricity consumptions were HK$1.7 billion, HK$3.59 billion and HK$5.64 billion respectively (based on year 2002 statistics).
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Impact of Global Warming on Dengue Fever and Malaria
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Dengue Fever • Vector born disease - mosquito.• Transmission potential expressed in Epidemic potential
EP
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Epidemic Potential
• p = survival probability of mosquito• a = biting frequency• n = incubation period• k1 is a constant
• all 3 parameters p, a and n depend on ambient temperature
)log(1
2
pk
paEP
n
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EP a
p
n
Martens, Climatic change, 35, 1997
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Epidemic Potential
• EP is a function of ambient temperature EP(T)• When ambient temperature increase by 1C• EP(T + 1C) can be computed
• change of EP can be expressed as:EP = EP(T + 1) – EP(T)
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EP % of Dengue Fever when temperature increase
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Impact of Global Warming on Dengue Fever
Temperature Increase Increase of Epidemic Potential
1oC 1.2% (0%-3.4%)
2oC 2.6% (0.2%-6.0%)
3oC 4.1% (0.39%-10.8%)
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EP % of Malaria when temperature increase
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Cha
nge
in E
P o
f Mal
aria
(%
)
J anuary March May J uly September NovemberMonth
T+1 T+2 T+3
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Impact of Global Warming on Malaria
Temperature Increase Increase of Epidemic Potential
1oC 6.7% (0-11.52)
2oC 13.0% (0-22.90)
3oC 18.7% (0.004-33.96)
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Conclusion
• Temperature rise is also observed in Hong Kong.
• 1C rise is associated with 4.5% increase in total energy use.
• 1C rise is associated with 1.2% / 6.7% increase in Dengue Fever / Malaria respectively.
• It is confirmed that Hong Kong will be affected by global warming.
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End of presentation
Questions