impact of climatic parameters on agricultural production and
TRANSCRIPT
Impact of Climatic Parameters
on Agricultural Production and
Minimizing Crop Productivity
Losses through Weather
Forecast and Advisory Service
in SAARC Countries
SAARC AGRICULTURE CENTRE
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SAARC Agriculture Centre (SAC) BARC Complex, Farmgate Dhaka-1215, Bangladesh Phone : 880-2-8115353, Fax : 880-2-9124594 E-mail : [email protected] Web : www.saarcagri.net c 2012 SAARC Agriculture Centre Published July 2012 All rights reserved
No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, recording or otherwise without prior permission of the publisher. ISBN : 978-984-33-5309-2
Cover Design
Mafruha Begum Price
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College Gate Binding & Printing 1/7, College Gate, Mohammadpur, Dhaka. Phone : 880-2-9122979, 01711-311366 E-mail : [email protected]
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Impact of Climatic Parameters on Agricultural
Production and Minimizing Crop Productivity
Losses through Weather Forecast and Advisory
Service in SAARC Countries
Compiled & Edited
by
Dr. S. K. Pal Deputy Director (Agriculture)
SAARC Agriculture Centre
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Table of Contents____________________________
Serial No. Content Page No
1 Table of Content v
2 Foreword xi
3 Executive Summary xiii
4 Concept Paper xxiii
5 Country Status Report 1
5.1 Bangladesh 3
5.1.1 Introduction 5
5.1.2 Existing Weather Forecasting Systems 5
5.1.2.1 Storm Warning Center 5
5.1.2.2 Existing Agro-met Advisory System 6
5.1.2.3 Modernizing Agro-met Division 8
5.1.2.4 Conversion of Weather Forecast Information into Farmers’ Advisories proposed
10
5.1.2.5 Dissemination Mechanism of Agro-met Advisory Services 10
5.1.2.6 Application of Forecast Information and Advisories to address several risks to minimize crop losses
10
5.1.3 Recommendations 12
5.1.4 Action Plan for Implementation 13
5.1.5 References 14
5.2 India 15
5.2.1 Introduction 17
5.2.2 Indian Agriculture & Climatic variability in recent past 18
5.2.3 Extreme Weather and its impacts on crops 19
5.2.3.1 Cold wave 19
5.2.3.2 Drought 19
5.2.3.3 Fog 20
5.2.3.4 Thunderstorm, Hailstorm and Duststorm 20
5.2.3.5 Heat Waves 20
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5.2.3.6 Tropical Cyclones 20
5.2.3.7 Floods 21
5.2.4 Signals of Climate change based on historic data 21
5.2.5 Projection of climate change in India 25
5.2.6 Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture 28
5.2.7 Agromet Advisory Service to minimize crop loss 30
5.2.7.1 Integrated Agromet Advisory Service scheme 31
5.2.7.1.1 Activities under different Tier 32
5.2.7.1.2 Weather Forecast for Agriculture 32
5.2.7.1.3 Special weather forecast for agriculture 34
5.2.7.1.4 Agromet Advisory Service Bulletins at different levels 34
5.2.7.1.5 Translating forecast into crop advisory 34
5.2.7.1.6 Weather observing system 36
5.2.7.1.7 Agrometeorological Support for farm management 36
5.2.7.1.8
Management of Extreme weather on Agriculture through Agromet Advisory Services
38
5.2.7.1.9 Adaptation to Climate Change & Climate Variability through Agromet Advisory Services
39
5.2.7.1.10 Dissemination of Agrometeorological Bulletins 40
5.2.7.1.10.1 Strategies for dissemination of agro-meteorological advisories 41
5.2.7.1.10.2 Dissemination of Agromet Advisory Services through Internet 48
5.2.7.1.10.3 Dissemination of Agromet Advisory Services through Mobile Phone
49
5.2.7.1.10.4 New Proposals on dissemination of Agromet Advisories 53
5.2.8 Farmers Awareness on AAS through Roving Seminars 56
5.2.9 Training in Agrometeorology 57
5.2.10 Extension and outreach and collection of feedback from farming community
58
5.2.11 Agromet Browchure 58
5.2.12 Impact of agrometeorological advisory services on climate risk management
59
5.2.13 Current status of R&D in Agrometeorology 64
5.2.14 Future research & development strategies 66
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5.2.15 Future projection under Agromet Advisory Service 67
5.2.16 All India Coordinated Research Project on Agrometeorology (AICRPAM)
68
5.2.16.1 Agroclimatic Characterization 70
5.2.16.2 Crop-Weather Relationships 71
5.2.16.3 Crop Growth Modelling 73
5.2.16.4 Weather Effects on Pests and Diseases 73
5.2.17 Conclusions 75
5.2.18 References 76
Appendix I National Level Agro Advisory Bulletin 79
Appendix II Agro Advisory Bulletin for the State of Maharashtra 116
Appendix III District Level Agro Advisory Bulletin for Tikamgarh District, MP 125
5.3 Nepal 127
5.3.1 Introduction 129
5.3.2 Climate Change and Agriculture 129
5.3.3 Impact of Climate Change in Nepalese Agriculture 130
5.3.4 Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management Practices in Nepal
131
5.3.5 The Need for Agrometeorological Advisory Service (AAS) 134
5.3.6 Existing Agrometeorological Advisory Service in Nepal 139
5.3.6.1 National level 140
5.3.6.2 Regional level 141
5.3.6.3 District level 142
5.3.6.4 Weather Observing System 142
5.3.6.5 Weather Forecasting System 142
5.3.6.6 Advisory Dissemination Mechanism 143
5.3.7 Proposed District Level Agrometeorology Advisory Service 144
5.3.8 Proposed organizational set up for AAS 144
5.3.9 Recommendations 146
5.3.10 References 146
Appendix 1 Synoptic Meteorological Stations, Nepal 148
Appendix 2 Morning Weather Forecast 149
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Appendix 3 24 Hour Weather Forecast 150
Appendix 4 Weather Bulletin 151
Appendix 5 Weather Forecast for Mountaineering Expedition 152
Appendix 6 Preliminary Weather Summary 153
Appendix 7 Normal (Average) Maximum, Minimum Temperature (°C) and Rainfall (mm) through 2000 year
157
5.4 Pakistan 159
5.4.1 Introduction 161
5.4.2 Climate and Crop Productivity 162
5.4.2.1 Crop Situation 162
5.4.2.2 Climate and Crop Productivity: A Case Study on Wheat in Rainfed Area
162
5.4.2.2.1 Rainfall Pattern Over Time in Rainfed Area 162
5.4.2.2.2 Wheat and Climate Variability 164
5.4.2.2.3 Effective Climate Risk Management 164
5.4.2.2.3.1 Understanding Climate Variability to Sustain Wheat Productivity 168
5.4.2.2.3.1.1 Use of Crop Simulation Models: An appropriate tool to understand Crop systems in relation to Climate
168
5.4.3 Existing Weather Forecasting System 171
5.4.3.1 Numerical modeling 174
5.4.3.2 Regional Climate Model 174
5.4.3.3 Numerical Weather Forecasting Systems 175
5.4.4 Existing Agromet Advisory System 175
5.4.4.1 Agromet Centres in Pakistan 175
5.4.4.1.1 National Agromet Centre (NAMC), Islamabad. 175
5.4.4.1.2 Regional Agromet Centres 175
5.4.5 Existing Agromet Advisory Dissemination Mechanism 176
5.4.5.1 National Weather for Next 24 Hours 176
5.4.5.2 Four Days Forecast 177
5.4.5.3 Weekly Forecast 178
5.4.5.4 Agro-meteorological Advisory Bulletin 178
5.4.5.5 Monthly Agro-Met Bulletin 179
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5.4.5.6 System of Dissemination of Agromet Data 179
5.4.6 Conclusion 179
5.4.7 References 180
Appendix I Agrometeorological Advisory Bulletin 182
5.5 Sri Lanka 183
5.5.1 Climate of Sri Lanka 185
5.5.2 Temperature 185
5.5.3 Rainfall 185
5.5.4 Relative Humidity 186
5.5.5 Evaporation 186
5.5.6 Climatic zones of Sri Lanka 186
5.5.7 Climate parameters and crop growth 187
5.5.8 Major issues of climate change with respect to agricultural productivity in Sri Lanka
188
5.5.9 Importance of seasonal weather prediction to Sri Lanka 189
5.5.10 Present Situation of Long Range Weather Forecasting (LRF) in Sri Lanka
190
5.5.11 Current state of agro- met advisory service in Sri Lanka 191
5.5.12 Proposed networking of Department of Meteorology and Department of Agriculture
191
5.5.13 Information that should give along with value-added agro-advisory reports
192
6 Proceedings of the consultation meeting on “Operational Agrometeorological Services in SAARC and other Countries of RA II Region” jointly organized by SAC, WMO & IMD at Pune, India during 20-21 April, 2012
193
7. Recommendations and Action Plan of the consultation meeting 209
8. Program details of the consultation meeting 211
9. Acronyms used in the document 213
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Foreword
SAARC Agriculture Centre, is putting is best effort to promote agricultural Research and Development (R&D) as well as technology dissemination initiatives for sustainable agricultural development and poverty reduction in the Region. One of its objectives is to strengthen agricultural research and accelerate technology transfer through establishing regional networks on agricultural and allied disciplines, particularly among agricultural research and extension centers, professionals, policy advisers and stakeholders.
In this endeavour SAARC Agriculture Centre (SAC) has initiated a program on “Impact of
climatic parameters on agricultural production and minimizing crop productivity losses
through weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries” during 2009. We had invited country documents on this aspect from all the member countries and finally we have received country paper from Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka as other countries may not have enough document on this aspect to report. The content of the respective country report is authenticated by the author(s). Later on these country reports were discussed in details in a consultation meeting jointly organized by the Centre in collaboration with World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and India Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune, Maharashtra, India during 20-21 April 2012. Main purpose of this program is to review the existing situation of impact of climatic parameters on agricultural production and minimizing crop productivity losses through weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC countries, find out the diversity among the member countries; identify the strength and weakness of the present scenario in the member states and recommend measures for improving the existing production system in individual member countries to address the need of 21st century.
You are well aware of the fact that global climatic changes and increasing climatic variability are likely to exert pressure on agricultural systems and may constrain attainment of future food production targets. Available adaptation strategies can help reduce negative impacts in short term but to a limited extent. We therefore need to urgently take steps to increase our adaptive capacity. This would require increased adaptation research, capacity building, development activities, and changes in Policies. Weather based agro-advisory is one such adaptation strategy in which India has already shown considerable progress. However, this needs to be propagated throughout the region for betterment of the farming community in the region.
I strongly believe that if recommendations emerged out of the consultation meeting are adopted by the member states, there are enormous opportunities to minimize the hazardous effect of climatic parameters and increase productivity in the region through agro-met advisory services. I hope and fully believe that India Meteorological Department in association with World Meteorological Organization can take a lead role in this regard to help fellow member states of the region with their resources and technology.
Dr. Abul Kalam Azad
Director SAARC Agriculture Centre
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Executive Summary
Climate variability witnessed in recent years is not new. It has been, and continues to be, the principal source of fluctuation in global food production, particularly in the semi-arid tropical countries of the developing world. In conjunction with other physical, social and political-economic factors, climate variability contributes to vulnerability to economic loss, hunger, famine and dislocation. In the developing countries, where adoption of improved technologies is too slow to counteract the adverse effects of varying environmental conditions, climate fluctuations are the main factors that prevent the regular supply and availability of food, the key to food security. Hence it is imperative that weather and climate variability aspects are well understood so as to formulate more sustainable policies and strategies to promote food production and food security.
It has long been recognized that if society could have advance information on weather, the adverse effects associated with it could be minimized. Climate determines the general adaptation of ecosystems and land use activities at any location. Year to year recurrences of extreme climate events such as drought, flooding, hot/cold spells, etc. often have far reaching consequences in agriculture. Advance warning of such events through climate prediction can minimize various socio-economic problems which are often associated with such events. The severity of the socio-economic impacts of climate related stress varies significantly from one region to another. The impacts are generally more severe in many developing countries particularly in SAARC countries where technological adaptations are often very low, and where most of the agricultural systems are rain dependent.
It is necessary to replicate the successful model of agro-advisory services developed by India or other developed countries to be replicated in the SAARC countries with the following objectives.
Objectives:
� To provide location specific weather forecast and Agro-Meteorological Advisory Service (AAS) as per different climatic conditions and cropping patterns.
� To implement an efficient outreach system so that the farmers receive weather based agro-advisories specific to their areas and crops on real time basis.
� To set up operational arrangements for AAS involving extension and information disseminating agencies.
It is possible to achieve these objectives with systematic plan of action :
1. Developing regional weather forecasting system
SAARC Meteorological Research Centre in collaboration with country level meteorological Centre may provide the weather forcasting information up to the district level or Block level whichever is feasible. These information need to be disseminate once or twice a week to the National Agromet advisory unit who will ultimately disseminate it to the district level or
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block level advisory unit for its effective translation in to agricultural advisory system to be practiced or followed by the farmers of that district or block.
2. Establishment of Agromet advisory system network
SAARC Agriculture Centre in collaboration with National Agricultural Research System and Agricultural Universities need to develop an advisory system network who can translate the weather forecast information to farmers friendly agricultural management advice to cope up with the forthcoming weather situation.
3. Advisory Dissemination Mechanism:
These weather based advisories would be disseminated to the farmers through mass media dissemination, Internet etc as well as through district level intermediaries. The advisories would be communicated through multi-channel dissemination system including Radio, National as well as private television channels, FM radios, print media (newspapers), Internet (web pages of SAC, SMRC, NARS SAUs etc) and Community Service Centres of Ministry of Information Technology, Cell Phone-SMS, District Agricultural Offices (DAO), Kisan Call Centres, NGOs etc. A mechanism also needs to be developed to obtain feedback from the farmers on quality of weather forecast, relevance and content of Agromet advisory and effectiveness of information dissemination system.
In order to do this it is necessary to understand the existing situation of the SAARC member states in respect of impact of climatic parameters on agricultural production and minimizing crop productivity losses through weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC countries, find out the diversity among the member countries; identify the strength and weakness of the present scenario in the member states and recommend measures for improving the existing production system in individual member countries to address the need of 21st century. In this endeavourer SAARC Agriculture Centre (SAC) has initiated a program on
“Impact of climatic parameters on agricultural production and minimizing crop
productivity losses through weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries” during 2009. Centre has invited country documents on this aspect from all the member countries and finally we have received country paper from Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka as other countries may not have enough document on this aspect to report. Latter on these country reports were discussed in details in a consultation meeting organized by the Centre in collaboration with India Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune, Maharashtra, India during 20-21 April, 2012. Existing status of the above five countries are summarized below.
I. Bangladesh
In Bangladesh, weather forecasting on cyclones, storms, tornadoes, etc. are mainly provided by Storm Warning Center (SWC) and on flood, drought, rainfall, sunshine hour, etc. by Agro-met division of Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD). The BMD is a government organization under the administrative control of the Ministry of Defense and was established at Agorgaon, Dhaka in 1971. The BMD operates 35 synoptic stations and throughout the country of which 12 provide agro-met information, reporting daily to the central office at Agorgaon, Dhaka.
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Based on the review of the activities of the current Agro-met division of BMD and weak linkage of DAE and NARS institutes with BMD, the following recommendations are suggested:
� Modern Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System (GIS) facilities should immediately be installed at the Agro-met division to collect more accurate data on crop yields, moisture stress, incidence of pests and diseases, etc.
� It is essential that increased number of stations is established at more number of locations of the country to obtain location-specific information on climate changes and related issues. The existing stations and the proposed ones must be simultaneously equipped with adequate number of professionals, supporting staff and Automatic Weather Observation Systems (AWOS) with telemetry.
� The WRF model which is now at experimental stage should be completed as soon as possible for better and effective forecasting.
� Planning of a training program with required training aids at the Agro-met division is essential to offer training courses to farmers, DAE officials and scientists of NARS institutes on weather forecast and agro-met advisory systems.
� The agro-met division is recommended to prepare and publish Agro-met advisory bulletin based on major crop seasons for the farmers of different agro-climatic zones. The proposed RS and GIS technologies are essential to prepare and publish such season-based Agro-met bulletins.
� The SAARC Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC), Bangladesh may be urged to upgrade research on developing Regional Climate Models (RCM) for the member countries of the region including Bangladesh.
� An MOU needs to be signed involving BMD, DAE and BARC to strengthen the present mechanism of dissemination of farmer’s advisories from BMD and feedback on such advisories from farmers, DAE and NARS institutes.
� It is also recommended that at least one or two krishibids (agricultural scientists)
with strong background in integrated crop management and skill in GIS and RS be immediately placed at BMD on deputation mainly to improve the current advisory service system of BMD based on location-specific weather forecast.
II. India
The Indian subcontinent has been exposed to disasters from time immemorial. The increase in the vulnerability in recent years has been a serious threat to the overall development of the country. Subsequently, the development process itself has been a contributing factor to this susceptibility. Coupled with lack of information and communication channels, this had been a serious impediment in the path of progress. India's vulnerability to various disasters has led to mounting losses year after year. Mammoth funds were drawn to provide post disaster relief to the growing number of victims of floods, cyclones, droughts and the less suspecting landslides and earthquake. Indian agriculture is passing through a critical phase as the rate of increase in crop production is barely keeping pace with the increase in population rates. As
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more land cannot be diverted to agriculture, increase in unit area productivity of crops is called for. Our recent experience is that the strategy of erring on the safe side through over-irrigation, over-protection and over fertilization of crops has been counter-productive, leading to a decrease in rates of crop production even under irrigation and degradation of soil and air environments and pollution of surface and groundwater reserves. Despite technological advances, such as improved varieties, genetically modified organisms, and irrigation systems, weather is still a key factor in agricultural productivity, as well as soil properties and natural communities. The effect of climate on agriculture is related to variability in local climates rather than in global climate patterns.
The challenges facing agriculture in the country are ever increasing. In the first place agriculture is highly weather dependent and hence subject to its variability. Secondly, the possible impacts of climate change may pose major challenges. Finally, the very sustainability of intensive agriculture using present technologies is being questioned in the context of Global Climate Change debate. The combination of long-term changes and the greater frequency of extreme weather events are likely to have adverse impacts on the agricultural sector. Changes in hydrological regimes will directly impact agricultural production and production methods. Reductions in crop yield and quality as the result of reduced water availability and precipitation variability could result in a loss of rural income. This loss of income will be further exacerbated by the need for increased spending as a result of damage caused by extreme weather events. The problem therefore has to be addressed collectively by scientists, administrators, planners and the society as a whole.
Several adaptation measures are available to reduce vulnerability to climate change by enhancing adaptive capacity and increasing resilience. Farmers can adopt coping mechanisms that withstand climate variability through activities such as the use of drought-resistant or salt-resistant crop varieties, the more efficient use of water resources and improved pest management. Adjustments may include the introduction of late-maturing crop varieties, switching cropping sequences, sowing earlier, adjusting timing of field operations, conserving soil moisture through appropriate tillage methods and improving irrigation efficiency. Some of the adaptive measures communicated through the Agromet Advisory bulletins are:
• Adjustment of planting dates to minimize the effect of temperature increase-induced spikelet sterility to reduce yield instability, by avoiding having the flowering period to coincide with the hottest period.
• Changing the cropping calendar to take advantage of the wet period and to avoid extreme weather events (e.g., cyclones and storms) during the growing season.
• Cultivation of crop varieties that are resistant to lodging (e.g.short rice cultivars)which withstand strong winds during the sensitive stage of crop growth.
• Development of cultivars resistant to climate change; adopting new farm techniques that respond to the management of crops under stressful conditions, plant pests and disease
• Shifts on sowing date of crops for more effective use of the soil moisture content.
• Moving forward the dates of crop sowing in a crop rotation calendar and farmers to plant a second crop that could even be vegetable with a short growth period.
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• With increased evapotranspiration, orientation toward a shift from conventional crops to types of agriculture that are not vulnerable to evapotranspiration
• Cultivation of heat resistant crop varieties by utilizing genetic resources that may be better adapted to warmer and drier conditions.
• Growing of suitable cultivars (to counteract compression of crop development), increasing crop intensities (i.e., the number of successive crops produced per unit area per year), or planting different types of crops.
The Agro-meteorological Advisory Service (AAS) is a mechanism to apply relevant meteorological information to help the farmer to use it for improving agricultural production. The main emphasis is to collect and organize climate/weather, soil and crop information, and to amalgamate them with weather forecast to assist farmers in taking management decisions. This has to be done immediately after generation of the weather forecast as there may be an emergent situation asking farmer to take management action in view of forthcoming weather situation. Critical factors for successful dissemination include relevance of information to weather & climate sensitive decision making in agriculture, followed by good outreach. The task is to provide information to help farmers make the best possible use of weather and climate information. To ensure delivery of information to the farming community, a multi-mode dissemination system for agro-meteorological advisories is essential in which beside the conventional modes (radio, television & print media), the emerging modes of communication such as mobile phones and internet are also deployed. More often than not, a wrong presumption is made while disseminating the information, that the farmers do not possess relevant knowledge and skills. To smarten the service through continuous up-gradation of service one needs back flow of information on quality and relevant of information or demand for specific product, hence two way communication has to be integral part of the dissemination system. As agro-meteorological information is dynamic in nature and there exists a large temporal and spatial difference leading to a very complex interaction between weather & agriculture, repetitive dissemination is essential. Deployment of communication model should be as per user’s need and convenience.
Under Integrated Agromet Advisory Service (IAAS) scheme at IMD/MoES efforts are being made to strengthen the outreach of the agromet advisory as per the need of the farmers. Under the project advisories are primarily disseminated to the farmers by mass mode, outreach at village level and human face for advisory dissemination. Advisories are being disseminated to farmers through following the multi-channel system;
i. All India Radio (AIR) and Doordarshan ii. Private TV and radio channels iii. Newspaper iv. Mobile phone / SMS v. Internet vi. Virtual Academy / Virtual Universities / NGOs vii. Kisan Call Centres / ICAR and other related Institutes / Agricultural
Universities / Extension network of State viii. Krishi Vigyan Kendra (KVKs)
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To cope with climate change more effectively, it is necessary to identify integrated adaptation and mitigation options for a range of agroecosystems so as to enable a favorable policy environment for the implementation of the framework. The policy implications are wide-reaching, as changes in agriculture could affect food security, trade policy, livelihood activities and water conservation issues, impacting large portions of the population.
To promote sustainable farm production in the scenario of increased climate variability and climate change, India Meteorological Department (IMD), Ministry of Earth Sciences, has strengthened the weather forewarning system and also developed weather information based advisory service to assist farmers to undertake suitable farm management practices. The service has components that mitigate likely impacts of severe weather and harness benevolent weather. Under the service known as Agrometeorological Advisory Service (AAS), the needs of farming community were defined through ascertaining information requirement of diverse groups of farmers to find that the prime need of farming community is to have location specific weather forecast in quantitative terms for medium range and beyond. Hence, the district level medium range weather forecast was developed and made operational in June, 2008. Thereafter, mechanism was developed to integrate weather forecast and climatic information along with agro-meteorological information to prepare district level agro-advisories outlining the farm management actions to harness favorable weather and mitigate impacts of adverse weather. A system has also been developed to communicate and disseminate the agro-meteorological advisories to strengthen the information out reach.
III. Nepal
Nepal is extremely vulnerable to climate change like other GHG gas non-emitting countries. Its emission level is lowest in the world measuring only 0.025% of global GHG emissions. However, this ratio is increasing over time. From the last couple of years, Nepal has been experiencing flooding, landslides, drought and variability in the occurrence of the regular course of monsoon. Flooding of the Kosi River in monsoon, over the past two years has displaced millions in Nepal as well as in Bihar (India). On the other hand, a weakened and irregular monsoon is causing drought threatening hundreds of millions of farmers all over India, Bangladesh and Nepal while heavy rains have caused terrible landslides across the Himalayas. The agriculture production particularly paddy in the current year in Nepal will decrease considerably due to the late monsoon. Likewise, last year’s drought plagued winter has adversely affected this year’s food production creating deficit of food. Currently up to 3.4 million people are estimated to require food assistance in Nepal due to a combination of natural disasters (particularly winter drought) affecting agricultural production and higher food prices, reducing people’s ability to purchase food. Scientists claim that Nepal is getting warmer. Monsoon changes its regular course in a slow and creeping manner. While none of these natural disasters can be directly attributed to climate change, scientists predict that they will become more frequent and more severe unless we act properly. Furthermore, scientists claim that increasing warming and changes in the occurrence of monsoon in Nepal are the worst consequences of climate change. Most of the arable land remains fallow as its cultivation depends on the rainfall resulting in food supply shortages. The livelihood of the majority of farmers is in danger due to crop failures arising from the uncertainty of monsoon. It is the poorest who are most vulnerable to these natural disasters getting most
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severely affected by the climate change. The rising trend of warming if allowed to continue will put the Himalayan glacier in danger. Scientists have warned that the fast melting of ice in the Himalayan range will convert the ever flowing river into desert after 30 years.
Nepal has not been able to cope with such cliamte and weather related problems due to its poor data base and weak advance weather forecasting mechanism. The agromet advisory system is not well established and needs to be strenghthened at different levels. Agrometeorological advisory service (AAS) in Nepal is at rudimentary stage. It is not well organized and what so ever exists is not easily accessible to the end users. The agency responsible for this service is Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) of the Government of Nepal. Government of Nepal started hydrological and meteorological activities in an organized way in 1962. The activities were initiated as a section under the Department of Electricity. The section was subsequently transferred to the Department of Irrigation and was ultimately upgraded to Department status in 1988. The department with headquarters in Kathmandu has three basin offices: Karnali Basin Office in Surkhet, Narayani Basin Office in Pokhara and Kosi Basin Office in Dharan. DHM has a mandate from Government of Nepal to monitor all the hydrological and meteorological activities in Nepal. The scope of work includes the monitoring of river hydrology, climate, agrometeorology, sediment, air quality, water quality, limnology, snow hydrology, glaciology, and wind and solar energy. General and aviation weather forecasts are the regular services provided by DHM. As a member of the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), DHM contributes to the global exchange of meteorological data on a regular basis.
To improve the existing situation following recommendations are made:
1. Establish an effective and efficient Agrometeorology Advisory Service Unit at National and District level within the extension service delivery mechanism of Nepal.
2. Formation of AAS Steering Committee under the chairmanship of Secretary, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooeratives to coordinate and decide about policy issues in AAS.
3. Use of decision-support systems should be promoted as an effective means of providing output of integrated climate-agronomic information
4. Research into the introduction of new scientific-based weather and climate forecast services, which provide accurate and reliable outlooks into the local indigenous cultural traditions in many poor rural areas;
5. Increased attention to facilitate access by the rural poor to technical expertise and technological innovations; Development of agrometeorological products with an emphasis on local user communities.
6. Development of capacity building of persons involved in agromet service and farmers as well.
7. Application of remote sensing techniques for AAS and exploitation of rapid innovation of technologies for the benefit of agromet service.
8. Development of crop weather models for AAS.
9. Generation of advisories for different areas- Horticulture, Crops, Livestock, Fisheries, Post Harvest and Storage.
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10. Exchange of data and Agricultural Meteorological knowledge between member countries and also the Inter-Regional exchange of these materials.
11. Use of Meteorological forecasts and short- and long-term Agricultural Meteorological recommendations should be included in specialized bulletins for further notice.
IV. Pakistan
Pakistan is basically an agricultural country and its economy mainly revolves around this sector. Though, the share of agriculture in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has been declining, it still accounted for 21.8 percent (%) of GDP during 2008-09. Despite its declining share it remains the single largest sector of Pakistan’s economy and an overwhelming majority of the population (Table 1) depends directly or indirectly on income streams generated by the agriculture sector. Rural areas in the country are home to around 65 percent of its population and agriculture is their principal livelihood, employing over 60 percent of the labor force. In Pakistan, like in many other regions, climatic conditions are highly variable and climate can be one of the known biggest risks factors impacting on agricultural system’s performance and management. Climate change has started to measurably affect agricultural production. There is enormous year-to-year climate variability, in terms of seasonal and in-season temperature and rainfall variability. Elevated temperatures and drought are among the biggest issues in agriculture. Occurrence of these climatic events represents the risk that existing agricultural activity may not be sustainable, given spatial and temporal variations in rainfall and other climatic conditions
The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) is responsible to provide meteorological expertise and professional services to the development of agricultural sector in the country through its weather forecasting mechanism. The department is in charge to deliver quality forecast, warning and advisory services. Agromet service is in operation since 1988 with a National Agromet Centre, (NAMC) at Islamabad and Regional Agromet Centres (RAMCs). The PMD provides the information in the form of current, 10-day and monthly Agromet Bulletins, Pakistan Weather Outlook etc. from NAMC.
In Pakistan, general but non-specific climate information for the agricultural sector is available for producers from a range of sources. Information providers and users are often either ignorant of the possible consequences of a certain climatic outcome or unable to quantify its effect. While general information is somewhat useful and of interest, it usually stops short of providing the level of details needed in order to affect management decisions. To improve climate risk related decision making at the farm level, farmers need to gain a better understanding of the climate factors that affect crop yield in their environment. This will allow decision makers to identify possible management options based on climate information or seasonal climate forecasts.
Use of seasonal climate forecasting can help to enhance the resilience in various cropping systems. However, to further improve financial profitability, economic efficiency and resource risk management, well-targeted case studies should address the following objectives:
• Quantify relationships between SOI phases (using the phenomena of El Nino Southern Oscillation, ENSO) and rainfall, crop yields and income;
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• Identify promising management strategies in existing cropping systems via simulation analysis using seasonal climate forecasts and climate variability information;
• Quantify the impact of using climate knowledge in economic and social terms;
• Provide a methodology for objective evaluation of policy consequences.
For successful climate applications, there is a need for effective collaboration and communication. It requires to engage in participatory, cross-disciplinary research that brings together institutions (partnerships), disciplines (eg. climate science, agricultural systems science, sociology and many other disciplines), people (scientists, policy makers, farmers and agribusiness representatives) and institutions as equal partners to gain maximum benefit from agricultural systems and climate research. Most importantly, the concept that has proven valuable to reduce vulnerability in agricultural systems is applicable for other crops exposed to climate induced risks.
V. Sri Lanka
Being a country whose economy is highly dependent on agriculture is very sensitive to the weather aberrations. Thus, there is no doubt that climate change/variability would inflict additional strain on the agricultural productivity of Sri Lanka due to reduction of crop yields both quantitatively and qualitatively. Recent estimated statistics indicate that the climate change will affect the agricultural production in Sri Lanka, and is expected to decrease agricultural production by 16 per cent in 2020. If accurate and timely agro-met advisory products are available, the magnitude of this impact could be reduced considerably. Therefore, it has become a timely need to produce reliable seasonal weather forecasting than ever before so that appropriate changes to farming practices could be undertaken to minimize the impacts of possible weather aberrations under a changing climate.
At present, even though agro-meteorological information are being collected by both departments of agriculture and meteorology, there is hardly any collective effort to synthesize these information and compile agro-met advisory products or documents which are of any use to farmers and agri-business people. Whatever information that is being collected is used by researchers and policy makers for long-term planning and decision making. It has also been observed that there is only minimal interaction exists among agricultural and meteorological officials and farmers and agri-business people. As a result meteorological officials have only limited concern on agriculture when they issue short or medium range forecasts. This has led to farmers and peasants have no experience in relying on weather information which in turn results in no demand for agro-meteorological products or documents to be produced by the met service.
Therefore, it is proposed to take following steps by respective authorities in order to increase the demand for agro-met advisory products by agricultural stakeholders to reduce the risk that may arise due to the climate change
• Establishment of an Agro-met Forecasting Cell at the Department of Agriculture (DoA) with a team of Scientists and Extension Agronomists
• Linking this cell directly to the National Meteorological Center (NMC) of the Department of Meteorology (DoM)
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• Immediate transferring of short and medium range weather forecasts issued by the NMC directly to the Agro-met Forecasting Cell
• Preparation of Value-added Agro-Advisory Reports by the Agro-met Forecasting Cell
• Dissemination of these information immediately to the, Farm-broadcasting service, On-line agricultural extension service, Cyber Extension Service of the DoA, all printed and electronic media
In long-run, following activities should be undertaken
• Carry-out awareness programme to educate farmers and other stakeholders on the importance of Agro-advisory reports and build their confidence on such information
• Develop a mechanism to get the feedback of end-users to improve the agro-advisory reports
• Preparation of area specific detailed value-added agro-advisory reports on request through on-line for agri-business people after paying a small fee
All these will help farmers and agri-business people and policy makers to utilize the real time weather information for improved decision making and management of agricultural systems for enhanced and sustainable productivity through minimizing the risk of weather aberrations.
xxiii
Concept Paper
IMPACT OF CLIMATIC PAREMETERS ON
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AND MINIMIZING
CROP PRODUCTIVITY LOSSES THROUGH WEATHER
FORCAST AND ADVISORY SERVICE
Dr S K Pal, Deputy Director (Agriculture), SAARC Agriculture Centre
Food production in the developing world declined from an average annual growth of 4.2 per
cent during the period 1991–1995 to 3.5 per cent during the period 1996–2000. One of the
reasons for this decrease was the alarming increase of natural disasters in number of
countries, which rose from 28 in 1996 to 46 in 2000. In recent years, major storms and
floods have struck Bangladesh, Cambodia, the Caribbean, Central America, China, India,
Southern Africa, Venezuela and Vietnam. As of April 2001, some 60 million people in 36
countries were confronting food shortages of varying degrees.
Climate variability witnessed in recent years is not new. It has been, and continues to be, the
principal source of fluctuation in global food production, particularly in the semi-arid
tropical countries of the developing world. In conjunction with other physical, social and
political-economic factors, climate variability contributes to vulnerability to economic loss,
hunger, famine and dislocation. In the developing countries, where adoption of improved
technologies is too slow to counteract the adverse effects of varying environmental
conditions, climate fluctuations are the main factors that prevent the regular supply and
availability of food, the key to food security. Hence it is imperative that weather and climate
variability aspects are well understood so as to formulate more sustainable policies and
strategies to promote food production and food security.
Climate change and agriculture are interrelated processes, both of which take place on a
global scale. Global warming is projected to have significant impacts on conditions affecting
agriculture, including temperature, precipitation and glacial run-off. These conditions
determine the carrying capacity of the biosphere to produce enough food for the human
population and domesticated animals. Rising carbon dioxide levels would also have effects,
both detrimental and beneficial, on crop yields. The overall effect of climate change on
agriculture will depend on the balance of these effects. Assessment of the effects of global
climate changes on agriculture might help to properly anticipate and adapt farming to
maximize agricultural production.
Despite technological advances, such as improved varieties, genetically modified organisms,
and irrigation systems, weather is still a key factor in agricultural productivity, as well as soil
properties and natural communities. The effect of climate on agriculture is related to
variabilities in local climates rather than in global climate patterns. Consequently,
agronomists consider any assessment has to be individually consider in each local area.
xxiv
In the long run, the climatic change could affect agriculture in several ways :
• productivity, in terms of quantity and quality of crops
• agricultural practices, through changes of water use (irrigation) and agricultural
inputs such as herbicides, insecticides and fertilizers
• environmental effects, in particular in relation of frequency and intensity of soil
drainage (leading to nitrogen leaching), soil erosion, reduction of crop diversity
• rural space, through the loss and gain of cultivated lands, land speculation, land
renunciation, and hydraulic amenities.
• adaptation, organisms may become more or less competitive, as well as humans
may develop urgency to develop more competitive organisms, such as flood
resistant or salt resistant varieties of rice.
It has long been recognized that if society could have advance information on weather, the
adverse effects associated with it could be minimized. Climate determines the general
adaptation of ecosystems and land use activities at any location. Year to year recurrences of
extreme climate events such as drought, flooding, hot/cold spells, etc. often have far
reaching consequences in agriculture. Advance warning of such events through climate
prediction can minimize various socio-economic problems which are often associated with
such events. The severity of the socio-economic impacts of climate related stress varies
significantly from one region to another. The impacts are generally more severe in many
developing countries particularly in SAARC countries where technological adaptations are
often very low, and where most of the agricultural systems are rain dependent.
Socio-economic challenges of the next century will include population pressure,
industrialization, environmental degradation, and anthropogenic climate change issues,
among others. Thus some climate stress in this century may be able to induce far more
serious socio-economic disasters in the next century. Advance warning of impending
extreme climate events, especially within time scales of months to years, would provide vital
information which could be used for sustainable agricultural production. Such early warning
information can also form crucial components of national/regional disaster preparedness
system which will help to minimise loss of life and property including damage to
agricultural investments.
In many parts of the Asia-Pacific region, agriculture plays a significant role in sustaining
livelihood systems of communities. The year-to-year variability of monsoon behavior
prompted agrarian communities to search for advance measures to manage risks. They have
developed their own methods of climate forecasting based on generations of experience,
local religious beliefs and close observations of their environment to anticipate weather
patterns (Sukradi, 1998). Communities rely on interpretation of cloud color and form, animal
behavior and flowering of certain plants, among others, as indicators of seasonal conditions.
Many of these observations have been coded in folk songs and rhymes, and thus passed
through generations. While use of these prediction methods varied from community to
community, the prevalence of traditional forecasting methods reflects the demand for
advance climate information to cope with climate variability in planning for agricultural
operations (Eakin, 2000).
xxv
The magnitude of projected changes in temperature, rainfall and carbon dioxide in future for
different parts of the world, including South Asia as simulated by various general circulation
models has been compiled by the IPCC (Watson et. al., 1998). According to this, by 2010
CO2 level will increase to 397 - 416 ppm from the current (2000) level of approximately 368
ppm. This will further increase to 605 - 755 ppm by 2070. There is considerable uncertainty
in the projected magnitude of change in rainfall and temperature for India (Table 1).
Relatively, the increase in temperature is projected to be less in kharif than in rabi. The rabi
rainfall will, however, have larger uncertainty. Kharif rainfall is likely to increase by as
much as 10%.
Table 1. The expected magnitude of change in climatic factors in south Asia by 2010 and
2070 AD due to global warming (Watson et. al., 1998).
Climatic factors Rabi Kharif
2010 2070 2010 2070
Temperature increase, oC 0.3 to 0.7 1.1 to 4.5 0.1 to 0.3 0.4 to 2.0
CO2, ppm 397 to 416 605 to 755 397 to 416 605 to 755
Rainfall change in southwest
monsoon region, %
0 -10 to +10 0 0 to +10
IPCC (2001) and Lal et al. (2001) have recently updated these scenarios. The area-averaged
annual mean warming by 2020 is now projected to be between 1.0 and 1.4 oC and between
2.23 to 2.87 for 2050. It is again confirmed that kharif rainfall would increase and rabi
rainfall may decrease in some areas.
Such global climatic changes will affect agriculture through their direct and indirect effects
on crops, soils, livestock and pests. Increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide has a fertilization
effect on crops with C3 photosynthetic pathway and thus promotes their growth and
productivity. Increase in temperature, depending upon the current ambient temperature, on
the other hand, can reduce crop duration, increase crop respiration rates, alter photosynthate
partitioning to economic products, effect the survival and distributions of pest populations
thus developing new equilibrium between crops and pests, hasten nutrient mineralisation in
soils, decrease fertilizer use efficiencies, and increase evapo-transpiration. Indirectly, there
may be considerable effects on land use due to snow melt, availability of irrigation,
frequency and intensity of inter- and intra-seasonal droughts and floods, soil organic matter
transformations, soil erosion, changes in pest profiles, decline in arable areas due to
submergence of coastal lands, and availability of energy. All these can have tremendous
impact on agricultural production and hence food security of any region. Equally important
determinants of food supply are socio-economic environment including government policies,
capital availability, prices and returns, infrastructure, land reforms, and inter- and intra-
national trade that might be effected by climatic change.
Agriculture and it's economy in the SAARC countries are strongly influenced by the
vagaries of the weather. The farming community is in great need to have access to weather
information to plan and manage their crops and their livelihoods. One of the important
communication systems which is gaining increased acceptance in the recent times is the
Internet. It is the need of the day to provide valuable agro-meteorological information to the
users through an interface like Crop Weather Outlook of SAARC countries. India one of the
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Direct effect on
Crop Growth
� Physiology � Phenology
� Morphology
Indirect effects
� Soil fertility � Irrigation availability � Pests � Floods & Droughts
� Sea level rise
Socio-economics
� Food demand � Cost & benefits � Policy � Trade
� Farmers response
Agricultural Production
& Vulnerability
Human intervention
Adaptation strategies
Mitigation Strategies
Climate Change
cHANGE
Assessment of Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change
member country is already using such an interface namely crop weather outlook of ICAR
which envisages to provide agro-meteorological information highlights generated under the
All India Coordinated Research Project on Agro-meteorology (AICRPAM) and its
Cooperating and Collaborating Centres along with ‘Value Added Agro-advisory Reports’.
One such system is essentially needed for the other SAARC member countries for a wider
use by the planners, researchers, farming community and other public users. This will help
the user to utilize the information for improved management of agricultural system as well
as achieving enhanced and sustained agricultural productivity in the SAARC countries.
At local level or at farm level Long-range forecasts could provide the indications of
monsoon rainfall variability. There are at least four significant aberrations in rainfall
behavior that could upset established crop calendars and yields:
1. The commencement of rains may be quite early or considerably delayed.
2. There may be prolonged “breaks” during the cropping season.
3. There may be spatial and/or temporal aberrations.
4. The rains may terminate considerably early or continue for longer periods.
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To deal with these aberrations, farmers could respond to forecasts to undertake these
measures:
• Change variety for one with shorter or longer duration;
• Change crop species or mix of species, especially combinations of cash and food
crops;
• Implement soil and water conservation techniques;
• Increase or decrease area planted, either total, by crop, or by upland or lowland
location;
• Adjust timing of land preparation;
• Increase or decrease borrowing for inputs;
• Sell or purchase livestock depending on anticipated cost and availability of feed; or
• Remain in village or migrate to seek off-farm employment or better grazing for
livestock.
Whereas at regional level or provincial level it can help policy makers to take certain
initiatives on the following aspects to mitigate the adverse situation :
1. Water Resources Management: Water resources managers at catchment, watershed and
river basin levels could undertake proactive measures to manage water resources. There is a
potential possibility of introducing water budgeting arrangements to prioritize water use and
allocate water resources among various competitive users. In areas where water availability
for irrigation purposes is scarce, a campaign can be launched to advise farmers to provide
minimum irrigation only at the critical crop stages. The lead-time available could be used for
augmenting water resources by constructing small-scale water harvesting structures and
rehabilitating old irrigation structures.
2. Compensatory Cropping Program: This has two dimensions. One is to try to compensate
for crop loss in the most severely affected areas (MSA) by intensifying the production
program and increasing yield in the most favorable areas (MFA) where there are
expectations of good rainfall and availability of assured irrigation sources. The second is to
make up the crop loss in the same area by taking up short duration cultivars.
3. Alternate Cropping Strategy: This involves shifting of crops which could be grown on the
availability of soil moisture during less than normal conditions. The success of this strategy
could depend on government intervention in providing input and market support to farmers.
The above-mentioned approaches need to be matched with irrigation potential and
agroclimatic zonation maps to evolve suitable cropping patterns, keeping in view El Niño
influences on rainfall patterns in various regions. Provincial level institutions would have
lead-time to provide agricultural input support, credit arrangements and technical advisories
to enable farmers to undertake contingency crop plans. Provincial administrations could also
provide support for marketing the agricultural products.
xxviii
Similarly National level institutions could provide necessary support to provincial
administrations and farming communities in terms of resources. National governments can
undertake policy decisions to map out potential impact areas and target resources for
mitigation measures. They could also undertake policy measures for export and import of
agricultural commodities. National governments could undertake measures to plan for good
logistics such as procurement of food grains, transport and distribution to potentially affected
areas.
The broad strategy of such a project in a specific region would be to:
1. Forecast seasonal onset of monsoon indicating the dates of monsoon onset at ten day intervals;
2. Forecast monthly rainfall;
3. Seasonal cumulative rainfall status for the entire season.
4. Determine the baseline relationship between climate variability and crop production in the region;
5. Establish awareness in the region of the potential for climate predictions to be used to increase crop yield;
6. Mobilize a multi-disciplinary team to design and execute the project in the region;
7. Identify agriculture practices in the region that may be modified through knowledge of future climate variations;
8. Design a project in which the impact of changes in agriculture practice can be quantified;
The most obvious and cheapest way to reach the farmers is through radio, television and
news papers. A special weather bulletin giving information may be broadcasted and
published every day. It should give specific information relevant to the farmers/ planters at
specific locations where the crop field is situated. These locations may be different
agricultural regions, namely: West, North, East, South and Centre. Each location identified
would be representative of a cluster of several hectares of crops.
EXISTING AGROMETEOROLOGICAL ADVISORY SERVICE IN INDIA
India Meteorological Department (IMD) started weather services for farmers in the year
1945. It was broadcast by All India Radio in the form of Farmer’s Weather Bulletin (FWB).
Subsequently, in the year 1976, IMD started Agro-Meteorological agricultural Advisory
Service (AAS) from its State Meteorological Centers, in collaboration with Agriculture
Departments of the respective State Governments. Though these services are being regularly
provided by IMD for the past many years, the demand of the farming community could not
be fully met due to certain drawbacks in the system. In view of that IMD launched Integrated
Agromet Service in the country for 2007 in collaboration with different
organisations/institutes. At present bulletins are being issued from three levels as mentioned
below.
xxix
National Agromet Advisory Bulletin
The bulletin is prepared for national level agricultural-planning & management and is being
issued by National Agromet Advisory Service Centre, Agricultural Meteorology Division,
India Meteorological Department. Prime users of this bulletin are Crop Weather Watch
Group, (CWWG), Ministry of agriculture..Bulletin is also communicated to all the related
Ministries (State & Central), Organizations, NGOs for their use.
State Agromet Advisory Bulletin
This bulletin is prepared for State level agricultural planning & management. These bulletins
are issued from 22 AAS units at different State capitals. Prime user of this bulletin is State
ACWWG. This is also meant for other users like Fertilizer industry, Pesticide industry,
Irrigation Department, Seed Corporation, Transport and other organizations which provide
inputs in agriculture.
District Agromet Advisory Bulletin
This is prepared for the farmers of the districts. These bulletins are being issued from 30
AMFUs functioning at State Agricultural Universities. This contains advisories for all the
weather sensitive agricultural operations form sowing to harvest. It also includes advisories
for horticultural crops and livestock. These weather based advisories are disseminated to the
farmers through mass media dissemination, Internet etc as well as through district level
intermediaries. The advisories will be communicated through multi-channel dissemination
system.
An expert committee consisting of Scientists (specialists) from different disciplines meet
every week on Tuesday and prepare the agro-advisories based on the weather forecast,
keeping in view the crop status. The advisories thus prepared are disseminated through e-
mail and telephone to the farmers. A copy of the advisories is also sent to the press. The
expert members keep visiting the farmers in different villages, examine their crops, interact
with the farmers to get the feedback and give proper guidance and advise. The agro-met
advisory bulletin contains crop management which is based on weather forecast and giving
warning to farmers much in advance regarding rainfall variation its amount and other
weather variables including pest/disease problems etc. so that farmers can decide about his
choice on tactical crop management, application of nutrients, strategy to overcome other
problems. Weather based agro-advisory service, has been functioning since 1993 and
effectively serving the farming community of villages. It receives weather forecast from the
IMD (Earlier from NCMRF) twice a week on Tuesday and Friday for Five days period based
on which the expert committee prepares the agro-advisory needed for that week.
The Government of India has been focusing on strengthening farmers' knowledge on
sustainable farm practices in their overall efforts to augment food security of the nation. In
spite of successful research on agricultural practices and technologies, Indian farmers are
facing a multitude of problems to sustain crop productivity. Many of these problems are
linked to variability in weather and climate. To address this issue effectively, the
Government launched District-level Agro-meteorological Advisory Service (DAAS) in June
2008 as one of the flagship programme of Ministry of Earth Sciences. The DAAS aims to
xxx
generate agro-meteorological information (weather forecast and agro-met-advisories) and
develop suitable dissemination system, to the farming community in order to improve
crop/livestock productivity. It enables farmers to take advantage of benevolent weather and
minimise the adverse impact of malevolent weather on crops. Presently, the weather based
agro-advisories are disseminated to the farming community at district level through mass
media (Radio, Print and TV). But there exists a wide information gap between information
generator and user. The outreach of IAAS system to deliver the information at Block and
Panchayat (village) level, in a timely manner, needs to be stepped up. The Common Service
Centre (CSC) of Department of Information Technology is a good solution to bridge the
information gap by exploiting advances in Information Technology (IT), which has
witnessed incremental use in dissemination of information in the recent past.
The DAAS is multidisciplinary and multi-institutional project. It involves all stakeholders
such as State Agricultural Universities (SAUs), Indian Council for Agriculture Research
(ICAR), Krishi Vigyan Kendras (KVK), Department of Agriculture and Cooperation, State
Departments of Agriculture/ Horticulture/ Animal Husbandry/ Forestry (up to District level
offices), NGOs, Media Agencies, etc. This project is being implemented through a five tier
structure to set up different components of the service spectrum. It includes meteorological
(weather observing and forecasting), agricultural (identifying weather sensitive stress and
preparing suitable advisory using weather forecast), extension (two way communication with
user) and information dissemination (Media, Information Technology, Telecom) agencies
(Fig. 1). The critical components of DAAS system (Fig. 2) is discussed in the following
sections:
Weather Observing System: District-level service needs meteorological observations at
sub-district levels. The current observation forms the basis for running the Numerical
Weather Prediction (NWP) models and also refining the weather forecast generated at
district scale. Also, the historical climate data is needed to support the crop planning. The
India Meteorological Department (IMD) has a network of 125 Automatic Weather Station
(AWS) and a large number of manual observatories. IMD is in the process to set up 550
additional AWS and 1350 Automatic Rain Gauge (ARG) stations in the first phase of its
modernisation plan. With this, every district in the country will have at least one AWS and
two ARG stations. In the second phase the network density of AWS/ARGs will be further
enhanced so as to automatically record meteorological observations at near block level. In
addition to this, a network of 55 Doppler Weather Radar has been planned of which 12 are to
be commissioned in the first phase. Techniques have been developed to assimilate large
volumes of satellite-derived information. A new satellite INSAT-3D is being launched in the
year 2009. Through improvement in observing systems, there will be further improvement in
defining the initial conditions to run the numerical weather prediction models which may
lead to higher accuracy in weather forecast.
Weather Forecasting System: IMD has started issuing quantitative district level (612
districts) weather forecast of up to 5 days from 1st June, 2008. The products comprise of
quantitative forecasts for 7 weather parameters viz., rainfall, maximum and minimum
temperatures, wind speed and direction, relative humidity and cloudiness, besides weekly
cumulative rainfall forecast. IMD, New Delhi generates these products based on a Multi
Model Ensemble technique using forecast products available from a number models of India
and other countries. These include: T-254 model of NCMRWF, T-799 model of European
xxxi
IMD
Agromet Services
State Department
of Agriculture
State Meteorological
Centre (23) IMD
AMFU (129 Agroclimatic
Zones) – SAUs/ICAR
Institute/IITs
District level Agriculture
Extension setup (512), DAO/KVK/ATMA
Block Level (BDO)
Farm Input Management
Village Level
CSC, DIT
NGO,
MSSRF
Extension Directorate of University
Local Media(AIR/TV/Print), NGOs
State Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG)
1. Drought Monitoring Centre 2. 2. State RS Application Centre 3. DAO/KVK/NGO
NCMRCWF-Location specific weather
Forcast Development Department of Agri. & Coop.
NCFC/ATMA/CWWG/
ICAR R&D Inputs Dept. of Space & Crop Information
Prasar Bharati
Department of Information Technology
Ministry Of Earth Sciences
Government of India
(AAS Steering Committee
Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF); United Kingdom Met Office
(UKMO), National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), USA and Japan
Meteorological Agency (JMA). The products are disseminated to Regional Meteorological
Centres and Meteorological Centres of IMD located in different states. These offices
undertake value addition to these products twice a week on Tuesday and Friday and
communicate to 130 AgroMet Field Units (AMFUs) located with State Agriculture
Universities (SAUs), ICAR etc.
Agro-meteorological Field Units (AMFUs) and Agro-advisory: Based on the above
forecast products and the crop information available from districts, the AMFU prepares
district-wise agro-advisories. The Ministry of Earth Sciences has set up a network of 130
AMFUs covering the agro-climatic zones of the country. These are operated at State
Agriculture Universities (SAUs), Indian Council of Agricultural Research institutions
(ICAR), Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) by providing grant-in-aid from IMD. These
units are responsible for recording agro-meteorological observations, preparing medium
range weather forecast-based Agromet advisories for the districts falling under precinct of
concerned agroclimatic zone and dissemination of the same. Concerned
universities/institutes have appointed Nodal Officer and Technical Officers,
xxxii
who prepare the advisory bulletins in consultation with the panel of experts already created
at these units. The Agromet bulletins include specific advice on field crops, horticultural
crops and livestock etc., which farmers need to act upon. Its frequency is twice a week i.e.
Tuesday and Friday.
Advisory Dissemination Mechanism: The weather based advisories, generated by 130
AMFUs, are being disseminated to the farmers through mass media dissemination, Internet
etc. A mechanism has also been developed to obtain feedback from the farmers on quality of
weather forecast, relevance and content of agromet advisory and effectiveness of
information dissemination system. The dissemination mechanism needs to be scaled up to
communicate advisories through multi-channel dissemination system including Radio, TV,
print media, Cell Phone-SMS, Internet and Common Service Centres of Department of
Information Technology. (Fig. 2)
FARMERS (THROUGH MEDIA AGENCIES,
IT SERVICE, PERSONAL
CONTACT)
District Level Agro-Met Advisory Service
IMD/NCMRWF
Agroclimate Level
Agro-Met Data
PREPARATION OF DISTRICT WISE MEDIUM RANGE
WEATHER FORECAST BY STATE MET CENTRE
130 AG.MET. FIELD UNITS
PREPARATION OF
DISTRICT SPECIFIC AGRO-ADVISORIES
FOR CONCERNED AGRO-CLIMATIC
District-wise
Agro-met data
DISTRICT LEVEL AGENCIES (DAO/KVK/ATMA/NGOs)
DISSEMINATION OF
DISTRICT LEVEL AGRO-ADVISORIES Feedback Analysis
xxxiii
In order to communicate agromet advisory in real time to the rural farmers in every district
of the country, District-level Agromet Advisory Service meetings with stakeholders in all the
states of the country has been completed recently. The prime objective of these meetings
was to develop a mechanism to involve district-level agencies (District Agriculture Offices,
Krishi Vigyan Kendras, Kisan Call Centres, NGOs etc.) for strengthening the agro-met
advisory service.
Augmentation of Agro-Met extension services by synergizing with Common
Service Centers (CSC) scheme
The Department of Information Technology (DIT) is establishing State Wide Area Network
(SWANs) to provide wide area converged network at block level across the state and
Common Service Centers (CSCs), one in every six villages across rural India in an effort to
deliver all types of services to the citizen at the local level. IMD shares the vision of DIT to
bring efficiency in farming sector through use of CSCs as an effective additional channel of
farm communication, in order to reach all sections of the farming community. National e-
Governance Plan of DIT aims to establish over one lakh Common Service Centres (CSCs)
across six lakh villages in the country by June 2009. The CSCs are ICT-enabled Kiosks
having PCs, basic support equipment like Printer, Scanner etc. The Scheme is being
implemented through a Public Private Partnership. Both the organisations, IMD and DIT are
working to develop suitable mechanisms to augment Agro-Met extension services by
synergising with CSCs through the following proposed interventions.
• Providing Meteorological Information (observation, forecast and products such as
agromet advisories) to the rural farmers at their locality i.e, villages, based on
districts and agro-climatic zones of the country.
• Meteorological information be linked with agri-productivity measures like farming
inputs/ precautions/ package of practices –information and guidance
• Supplementing necessary information on part of meteorology into the complete
solution for small farmers through integrated framework of the related stakeholders
like KVK, ICAR, Universities/Colleges etc.
• Weather warnings to ensure minimal losses due to disasters Establishing a two way
communication linkage through CSCs so that agri-related queries may be attended to
and replied.
• A mechanism may also be developed to obtain regular feedback based on the skill of
forecast, quality and relevance of advisories, problem solving by interactive mode,
answering questions of common interest through bulletins, accessibility to
information/ experts via ICT.
• CSCs may communicate local level observation (Meteorological, Crop, Soil,
Pest/Disease, Sowing, Harvesting and Other prevailing intercultural operations) to
the knowledge pool for generating relevant and specific advisories.
• Training may also be planned for the kiosk operators as well as farmers on use of
agro-met advisories in farm management through AMFUs with active support from
IMD/ICAR.
xxxiv
India Meteorological Department (IMD) was operating Agro-met Advisory Service (AAS)
on the basis of short range weather forecast at the state level, since 1976. Considering the
need of farming community to provide a service with improved resolution based on medium
range weather forecast, an improved service was developed and rendered by National Centre
for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF). This service was operating at agro-
climatic zone level (127 in India) using 4 day weather forecast. Although quite successful
and useful in terms of benefits accrued, the present agro-advisory system is not adequate to
deal with crop management issues owing to weather variability prevalent at sub-district
levels. Further, the problem of spatial variability in weather gets compounded due to variable
cropping system, farm operations and soil conditions at the sub-agroclimatic zone level.
Keeping these in view, the Ministry of Earth Sciences has upgraded the AAS from
agroclimatic zone scale to district level.
Salient features of DAAS
1. Weather Observing System:
District level service needs meteorological observations at sub-district levels. The current
observation forms the basis for running the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models
and also refining the weather forecast generated at district scale. Also, the historical climate
data is needed to support the crop planning. IMD has a network of 125 AWS and a large
number of manual observatories. IMD is in the process to set up 550 additional Automatic
Weather Station (AWS) and 1350 Automatic Rain Gauge (ARG) stations in the first phase
of its modernization plan. With this, every district in the country will have at least one AWS
and 2 ARG stations. In addition to this, a network of 55 Doppler Weather Radar has been
planned of which 12 are to be commissioned in the first phase. Techniques have been
developed to assimilate large volume of satellite derived information. A new satellite
INSAT-3D is being launched next year. Through improvement in observing systems, there
will be further improvement in defining the initial conditions to run the numerical weather
prediction models which may lead to further improvement in skill of weather forecast.
2. Weather Forecasting System:
IMD has started issuing quantitative district level weather forecast up to 5 days from 1st
June, 2008. The products comprise of quantitative forecasts for 7 weather parameters viz.,
rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures, wind speed and direction, relative humidity
and cloudiness. In addition, weekly cumulative rainfall forecast is also provided. IMD, New
Delhi will generate these products based on a Multi Model Ensemble technique using
forecast products available from a number models of India and other countries. These
include: T-254 model of NCMRWF, T-799 model of European Centre for Medium Range
Weather Forecasting (ECMWF); United Kingdom Met Office (UKMO), National Centre for
Environmental Prediction (NCEP), USA and Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). The
products are disseminated to Regional Meteorological Centres and Meteorological Centres
of IMD located in different states. These offices undertake value addition to these products
and communicate to 130 Agro-Met Field Units (AMFUs) located with State Agriculture
Universities (SAUs), institutes of Indian Council of Agriculture Research (ICAR) etc.
xxxv
3. Advisory Service Network:
Based on the above forecast products and the crop information available from districts, the
AMFUs will prepare district-wise agro-advisories. The DAAS is multidisciplinary and
multi-institutional project. It involves all stake holders such as State agricultural Universities
(SAUs), Indian Council for Agriculture Research (ICAR), Krishi Vigyan Kendras (KVK),
Department of Agriculture & Cooperation, State Departments of Agriculture/ Horticulture/
Animal Husbandry/ Forestry (Up to District level offices), NGOs, Media Agencies, etc. This
project is being implemented through five tier structure to set up different components of the
service spectrum. It include meteorological (weather observing & forecasting), agricultural
(identifying weather sensitive stress & preparing suitable advisory using weather forecast),
extension (two way communication with user) and information dissemination (Media,
Information Technology, Telecom) agencies.
4. Advisory Dissemination Mechanism:
These weather based advisories would be disseminated to the farmers through mass media
dissemination, Internet etc as well as through district level intermediaries. The advisories
would be communicated through multi-channel dissemination system including All India
Radio (AIR), Doordarshan, private television channels, FM radios, print media
(newspapers), Internet (web pages of IMD, SAUs etc) and Community Service Centres of
Ministry of Information Technology, Cell Phone-SMS, KVKs/ District Agricultural Offices
(DAO), Kisan Call Centres, NGOs etc. A mechanism has also been developed to obtain
feedback from the farmers on quality of weather forecast, relevance and content of agro-met
advisory and effectiveness of information dissemination system.
The scope, accuracy and outreach of DAAS will continuously be enhanced with time as and
when newer products, technologies and scientific inputs are available in future.
REGIONAL NEEDS TO IMPROVE AGRO-METEOROLOGICAL
SERVICES TO VARIOUS SECTORS SUCH AS AGRICULTURE,
FORESTRY, FISHERIES, ETC.
Some problems with agro-meteorological services
The needs to improve agro-meteorological services could be determined in the following
way:
� to describe the system of agro-meteorological service in a region � to list the needs in agro-meteorological services from different groups of end user � to define the gap between “what are” and “what should be” � to number the problems, which have to be solved � to formulate the requirements for people, who will develop solutions and provide
them to end users
� to develop programs and corresponding courses to train those people.
The obvious conclusion from the above classification is very simple: it is necessary to have
at least three different strategies to improve agro-meteorological services.
Let consider the problem of determining regional needs from the necessity of improving
agro-meteorological services.
xxxvi
Within the first group of countries the existing systems of agro-meteorological services meet
the essential needs in agro-meteorological information (both operational and climatological),
in agro-meteorological parameters derived from observation data (variety of indexes, etc.),
in different agro-meteorological forecasts and reviews.
Education and training are conducted in the framework of universities, educational
institutions, colleges, etc. There are a tremendous number of consulting companies and firms
offering both an information services and training courses or workshops. There are no real
problems in providing end users with traditional types of agro-meteorological information or
products. New and promising technologies and techniques such as “precise agriculture” with
GPS-devices on agricultural equipment, map of fields from GIS-bases, detail soil
composition at every piece of a field require the next level of agro-meteorological
information – measurement of energy and mass flows within a field, taking into account
some microclimate relationships, crop development models accurate enough to evaluate the
growth of particular species. Possible difficulties are stipulated by no existence of
corresponding agro-meteorological knowledge.
But nothing is perfect. Real demand on agro-meteorological services is lower that could be
expected on the base of the above facts. The propositions on the market of agro-
meteorological services are not rich enough to attract attention and interest of farmers. We
provide farmers with agro-meteorological information, and after receiving such information
they must think and take some decision. But there are no ready-to-use solutions fitted to
current feathers of a farm, applicable procedure and current weather conditions. So if we
focus our efforts
on this problem the situation with agro-meteorological services should improve. If my
suggestion is true the trainees should be selected among top managers from consulting
companies dealing with planning new products or services. But this may partially be
applicable for Indian condition only and may not be true for other SAARC countries..
The second group of countries
The systems of agro-meteorological services exist and work, but, as a rule, they evaluate the
agro-meteorological conditions within big territories with the area in thousands of square
kilometers. Such information is of significant importance for regional and national bodies
but it is almost useless at farmer’s level. There are no agro-meteorological services for
farmers or they are provided with minimal number of agro-meteorological products or
documents. Agro-meteorologists and workers for agriculture are trained in the framework of
universities, educational institutions, colleges, etc. Workers for agriculture study
fundamentals of agro-meteorology during short period. In general agro-meteorology and
agriculture exist and develop independently - there are two separate educational and training
agro-meteorological and agricultural subsystems with minimal interaction between them. It
is necessary to develop agro-meteorological services for farmers, to teach farmers of using
agro-meteorological information and products, to develop agricultural services, which are
based on agro-meteorological information and products. The considerations about the agro-
meteorological services in the first group of countries are also applicable for the second
group.
xxxvii
The third group of countries
Agro-meteorological services do not exist at all or they are in embryo. The agro-
meteorological network is too sparse, the available volumes of agro-meteorological and
agro-climatological information are not enough to develop some modern agro-
meteorological services. Farmers and peasants have no experience in relying on agro-
meteorological information, which is resulted in no demand on agro-meteorological services.
The principal objective is to arrange enlightenment and education. In the conclusion of this
section it is necessary to mention an additional urgent problem for the second and third
groups – who (authority, administrative bodies, private companies, interested parties, agro-
meteorological community or somebody else) would design, develop, establish and
implement a system of agro-meteorological service) and who proved them with required
resources.
It is necessary to replicate the successful model of agro-advisory services developed by India
or other developed countries to be replicated in the SAARC countries with the following
objectives.
Objectives:
� To provide location specific weather forecast and Agro-Meteorological Advisory Service (AAS) as per different climatic conditions and cropping patterns.
� To implement an efficient outreach system so that the farmers receive weather based agro-advisories specific to their areas and crops on real time basis.
� To set up operational arrangements for AAS involving extension and information disseminating agencies.
Plan of work
1. Developing regional weather forecasting system
SAARC Meteorological Centre in collaboration with with country level meteorological
Centre may provide the weather forcasting information up to the district level or Block level
which ever is feasible. These information need to be disseminate once or twice a week to the
National Agromet advisory unit who will ultimately dissiminate it to the district level or
block level advisory unit for its effective translation in to agricultural advisory system to be
practiced or followed by the farmers of that district or block.
2. Establishment of Agromet advisory system network
SAARC Agriculture Centre in collaboration with National Agricultural Research System
and Agricultural Universities need to develop an advisory system network who can translate
the weather forcast information to farmers friendly agricultural management advice to cope
up with the forthcoming weather situation.
xxxviii
3. Advisory Dissemination Mechanism:
These weather based advisories would be disseminated to the farmers through mass media
dissemination, Internet etc as well as through district level intermediaries. The advisories
would be communicated through multi-channel dissemination system including Radio,
National as well as private television channels, FM radios, print media (newspapers),
Internet (web pages of SAC, SMRC, NARS SAUs etc) and Community Service Centres of
Ministry of Information Technology, Cell Phone-SMS, District Agricultural Offices (DAO),
Kisan Call Centres, NGOs etc. A mechanism also needs to be developed to obtain feedback
from the farmers on quality of weather forecast, relevance and content of agromet advisory
and effectiveness of information dissemination system.
REFERENCES :
Eakin, H. 2000 Seasonal climate forecasting and the relevance of local knowledge. Physical
Geography
IPCC, 2001. Climate change 2001: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Inter-
Governmental Panel on climate change. Report of the Working Group II.
Cambridge, UK, p 967.
Lal, M., Nozawa, T., Emori, S., Harasawa, H., Takahashi, K., Kimoto, M., Abe-Ouchi, A.,
Nakajima, T., Takemura, T. and Numaguti, A. 2001. Future climate change:
Implications for Indian summer monsoon and its variability. Current Sci., 81:
1196-1207.
Sukardi, W. 1998 The meteorological meaning of traditional time reckoning: wariga and its
applications. Journal Agromet. XIII(1), pp.15-24. Indonesian Association of
Agricultural Meteorology.
Watson, R.T., Zinyowera, M.C. and Moss, R.H. (Eds). 1998. The regional impacts of
climate change. An assessment of vulnerability. IPCC II Report. Cambridge
University Press, 517p
It is suggested to prepare the document under the following broad heads:
1. Existing weather forecasting system at different level (National, Provicincial, District, Block & Panchayat).
2. Existing Agromet advisory system network at different level and
3. Existing Agromet Advisory Dissemination Mechanism at different level.
5. COUNTRY STATUS REPORT
2 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
Mohammad H. Mondal
Director General (Retd.),
Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute (BARI),
Gazipur, Bangladesh.
5.1 BANGLADESH
4 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
Bangladesh 5
5.1.1 Introduction
Agriculture and climate are very much interrelated processes. Pre-harvest (seeding, weeding,
application of fertilizers, irrigation, pesticides, etc.) and post-harvest (drying, processing,
preservation, etc) operations are highly influenced by climatic changes. In recent years,
agriculture in the developing countries including Bangladesh has become seriously
vulnerable to climatic stresses like drought, flood, cyclones, salinity, etc. In Bangladesh,
drought affects annually 2.3 million ha land in kharif and 1.2 million ha in dry (rabi) season
every year. About 2.6 million ha land are affected by flood in a normal year. The devastating
flood of 2004 inundated 40 districts of the country and caused considerable losses to crops
and lives. Besides, about 1 million ha land in coastal region is vulnerable to different degree
of salinity forcing farmers to go for monocrop agriculture in the area. Timely weather
forecast may avert drought, flood, cyclone, etc. and reduce losses of crops to a significant
extent.
For the preparation of this country paper, information were collected from a) Storm Warning
Centre and Agro-met division of Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD), b)
Department of the Agricultural Extension (DAE) and c) National Agricultural Research
System (NARS).
The paper highlights the a) existing weather forecasting system of the Bangladesh
Meteorological Department (BMD), specially with respect to generation and dissemination
of such information to Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE), NARS and farmers and
feedback from farmers to BMD and b) how timely forecast could help minimize the
productivity losses of crops. Necessary recommendations have been offered to take policy
actions for improving the current status of weather forecasting and agro-met advisory
system.
5.1.2 Existing Weather Forecasting System
In Bangladesh, weather forecasting on cyclones, storms, tornadoes, etc. are mainly provided
by the Storm Warning Center (SWC) and on weather parameters like temperature, flood,
drought, rainfall, sunshine hour, etc. by the agro-met division of the BMD. The BMD is a
government organization under the administrative control of the Ministry of Defence. The
BMD operates 35 Synoptic Stations (Fig.1) throughout the country of which 12 provide
agro-met information reporting daily to Agro-met division, BMD, Dhaka.
5.1.2.1 Storm Warning Center
The Centre is responsible for monitoring and issuing daily forecasts and warning on
meteorological events such as cyclones, storms, tornadoes, heavy rainfall, etc. based on (a)
Synoptic chart analysis, (b) Pilot chart analysis, (c) Radio Sonde analysis and (d) Satellite
(MT SAT, Japan). The weather data are disseminated mainly through print and electronic
media, fax, telephone and internet. The Centre maintains linkage with the Disaster
Management Bureau and Flood Forecasting & Warning Centre of the Bangladesh Water
Development Board to provide information on storm, disaster, cyclone, tornado, etc. for
public in general.
6 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
5.1.2.2 Existing Agro-met Advisory System
The agro-met unit was established as a division of BMD. The Agro-met division of BMD at
present operates its activities through a network of 12 agro-met stations (fig.2). The stations
record weather forecast information synoptically on rainfall, average max/min humidity,
average max/min temperature, flood and drought around the area. The stations are
responsible to collect weather data as inputs for the preparation of agro-met bulletin for
different end users. The data are collected twice a day at 0000 GMT and 1200 GMT from all
agro-met stations and submitted to the Agro-met division of BMD in Dhaka for
consolidation.
The agro-met bulletin is issued every 7 days of each month using the data collected from 12
agro-met stations. The forecast information thus generated are disseminated by e-mail,
website, fax and postal service to different end users mainly DAE, NARS, Agriculture
Information Service (AIS), Ministry of Agriculture, etc.
Fig.1: Bangladesh map showing the locations of existing synoptic stations of SWC (35)
Source: Agro-met division, Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD)
Bangladesh 7
Fig.2: Bangladesh map showing the existing Agro-met stations (12)
Source: Agro-met division, Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD)
The Agro-met bulletin is published based on the following weather information:
• 07 days actual rainfall in mm
• 07 days climatic normal rainfall in
mm
• Departure % of actual rainfall from
normal.
• No. of rainy days
• Max. temperature
• Normal max. temperature
• Min. temperature
• Normal min. temperature
• Average evaporation
• Average max. humidity
• Average min. humidity
• Average sunshine hours
• Weather forecast for next 07 days (rainfall,
temperature, sunshine hours, evaporation,
fog, hail, storm)
• Advisories for the farmers(selection of
technology, time of application of fertilizers
and irrigation based on weather forecast,
time of application of pesticides based on
the incidence of pests and diseases, etc.)
8 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
The bulletin also includes 7 days location-specific deterministic forecast (rainfall,
temperature).Deterministic forecast is based on GFS (INCEP, USA) model output.
Accumulated rainfall forecast for the period from 01.05.12 to 07 .05. 12 (7 days) is shown in
figure 3.
To improve the quality of agro-met bulletin and advisory services, model outputs of different
international meteorological centers, namely ECMWF (EU), NCEP (USA), JMA (Japan),
MRWFC (India), etc. are used for making deterministic forecast. BMD is experimentally
operating a WRF model of NWPS and GSM model of JMA, 1st phase of which is
completed. Second phase is in progress. A separate website is installed under GOB-
supported Climate Change Trust Fund (CCTF) project on pilot basis.
5.1.2.3 Modernizing Agro-met Division
The Agro-met Division of BMD needs aerospace Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic
Information System (GIS) facilities to obtain accurate weather forecast information. The
existing networks of 12 agro-met stations are quite insufficient to obtain representative
weather data. The stations should also be staffed with adequate number of manpower and
equipment, specially RS and GIS. The existing network has recently been expanded to install
8 new agro-met centers under a government -supported Climate Change Trust Fund (CCTF)
project. The new centers will have Automatic Weather Observation Systems (AWOS) with
telemetry to improve the resolution of the model output for forecasting and generate agro-
met database for research purpose (fig.4). There is also a need for few agricultural scientists
at BMD with expertise in ICM (Integrated Crop Management), RS and GIS to correctly
analyze weather forecast data on-location- specific technologies.
Weekly Agro-met forecast for the period: 01.05.12 to 07.05.2012
Fig.3: Bangladesh map showing divisions of weekly accumulated rainfall (mm) forecast for
the period: 01.05.12 to 07.05.12 Source: Agro-met division, Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD)
Bangladesh 9
Weather Forecast and Advisory for the period from 01.05.2012 to 07.05.2012.
• Light (4 -10 mm) to moderate (10-22 mm) rain/thunder showers may occur at most
places over Rajshahi, Dhaka and Sylhet divisions and many places elsewhere over
the country with a chance of isolated moderately heavy (22-44mm) to heavy (44-
88mm) rainfall accompanied by temporary gusty or squally North/North-Westerly
wind speed 45-60 km per hour or more may occur at places over the country during
this period.
• Rainfall activity may reduce during the second half of this period.
• Weather condition of this period is suitable for aus rice sowing.
• Maximum and minimum temperature of this week may remain nearly unchanged.
Fig.4: Bangladesh map showing the location of new Agro-met stations (8) with Automatic
Weather Observation System (AWOS)
Source: Agro-met division, Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD)
10 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
5.1.2.4 Conversion of Weather Forecast Information into Farmers’ Advisories
Proposed
The weather forecast information disseminated to DAE, NARS by agro-met division should
be transferred to the District Advisory Committee for preparing crop and location specific
advisories in consideration of farmers’ needs. The forecast information and advisories help
farmers plan for application of fertilizers, pesticides, irrigation and weather related location-
specific cultural operations. The operations should include selection of technology (variety),
date of sowing/ planting/transplanting/harvesting and other preharvest and post harvest
activities. Dissemination of weather forecast, preparation of agro-advisories and their
transmission to farmers are proposed in the figure below:
5.1.2.5 Dissemination Mechanism of Agro-met Advisory Services
Agro-met advisories are received mainly by DAE and NARS at almost regular intervals
from Agro-met division, BMD. The advisories are then disseminated to their district offices
through telephone, fax or postal services. However, the dissemination mechanism of DAE
and NARS with BMD is still weak. An effective and strong mechanism needs to be
developed with BMD to obtain feedback from farmers, DAE and NARS on the quality of
weather forecast information, its content and relevance of farmers’ advisory services through
training, demonstrations and review meetings.
5.1.2.6 Application of Forecast Information and Advisories to address several
risks to minimize crop losses
Agriculture in Bangladesh is becoming vulnerable to climatic stresses like drought,
flood, pest attack, etc. every year. The disasters have been occurring at greater
intensity and severity in recent years.
a) Drought and advisories to avert the risk(drought)
Droughts in Bangladesh are associated with late arrival or early withdrawal of monsoon
rains and sometimes complete failure of monsoon. Bangladesh had experienced droughts of
major magnitude in 1973, 1978, 1979, 1981, 1982, 1989, 1992, 1994 and 1995. Droughts of
different intensity affect about 2.32 million ha land in Kharif season (April-October) and 1.2
million ha in Rabi (November-March) season almost every year. Kharif drought affects
Preparation of forecast
information by Agro-met
division, BMD
Dissemination of the forecast
information to DAE, NARS
(national level)
Preparation of farmers’
advisories by DAE, NARS at
district level
Dissemination of advisories to
farmers’ for specific locations
(through media, fax, etc.)
Bangladesh 11
transplanted (T) aman rice whereas Rabi drought wheat, potato, mustard and pulses mainly.
Yield reduction of T.aman rice ranged from 20 to 60% due to Kharif drought. Yield
reduction of Rabi crops (wheat, potato, mustard) varied from 20 to 70% due to Rabi drought.
Advisories given to farmers’ mainly by DAE and NARS to avert the risk are shown below:
Crop Kind of risk Advisories to avert the risk
Aus rice Dry spell in March/April Timely/delayed sowing
T. Aman rice Dry spell in July/August Delayed transplanting, application of
supplementary irrigation
Boro(winter)
rice
Inadequate soil moisture
at transplanting
Early/delayed transplanting coinciding
rainfall
Wheat Inadequate soil moisture
at sowing
Sowing under minimum tillage to exploit
residual soil moisture
Rabi crops Inadequate soil moisture
at sowing
Timely sowing under minimum tillage to
exploit residual soil moisture
b) Flood and advisories to avert the risk (flood)
Between 1953 and 2007, there had been 42 occurrences of flood in Bangladesh. The floods
of 1974, 1988, 1998, 2004 and 2007 are worth mentioning. The flood of 1988 inundated
89,000 sq. km. land of 52 districts and that of 1998 inundated 100,000 sq. km. area of 53
districts causing considerable losses of crops, livestock, fisheries and humans. Flood
normally affects 2.6 million ha of land every year. Flood mainly affects aus/T. aman/
boro(winter) rice, jute and summer vegetables. Advisories given to farmers’ to avert the risk
are given below:
Crop Kind of risk Advisories to avert the risk
Aus rice Flood at harvest Advanced harvest at physiological maturity
T. Aman rice Chance of late flood Early transplanting of HYV/ late
transplanting of LIV of rice
Boro(winter)
rice
Flash flood at harvest Transplanting short duration varieties for
early harvest
Jute Early flood Early harvest through early sowing
Summer
vegetables
Early flood Sowing short duration
vegetables/cultivation of vegetables at
homesteads
c) Late blight disease and advisories to avert the disease
In 2008-2009, area under potato in Bangladesh was 4.64 lakh ha of which 16087 ha was
affected by the late blight disease. As a result, production of potato was reduced to about 67
lakh tons against the target production of more than 80 lakh tons. Foggy weather and
temperature of 180C or more that prevailed in December - January, 2008-2009 favoured the
incidence of the disease causing production loss of potato throughout the country. On the
other hand, cooler temperature (less than 180C) and bright sunshine in the following year
(2009-2010) was unfavorable for the appearance of the disease that resulted in higher
production of approximately 88 lakh tons of potato. In the subsequent years farmers were
12 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
advised by NARS to go for delayed planting of potato to minimize losses due to the disease
or arrange timely application of appropriate pesticides to control the disease.
5.1.3 Recommendations
� An MOU should be signed involving BMD, DAE and BARC without delay to
strengthen the present mechanism of dissemination of weather forecast information
and feedback of farmers, DAE and NARS on the quality and relevance of such
information.
� Agro-met division should be equipped with adequate number of RS, GIS and other
relevant facilities to collect accurate and timely information on weather forecast.
� At least two agricultural scientists with strong background in ICM (integrated crop
management) and skill in GIS and RS may immediately be placed at BMD on
deputation mainly to correctly analyze and interpret weather forecast data. Until the
creation of such new posts at BMD, proposed deputation mechanism should
continue.
� Strong training programs with necessary training aids must be developed at BMD
without delay to offer training to farmers, DAE officials and scientists of NARS on
weather forecast and agro-met advisory services.
� The Agro-met division should publish agro-met advisory bulletin based on major
crop seasons (winter & summer) for the farmers of different agro-climatic zones.
The proposed RS and GIS technology could be used to prepare such bulletins.
� It is also essential that all existing agro-met stations of BMD are equipped with
adequate number of expert professionals, supporting staff and Automatic Weather
Observation Systems (AWOS) with telemetry to generate agro-met database for
research
� An Agro-met Advisory Committee should be established at district level with
representatives from farmers and NARS under the coordination of the Department of
Agricultural Extension (DAE) to develop the agro-met advisory services.
� Agro-met advisory service is at present confined only to Crop sub-sector of
agriculture. It is proposed that the advisory services be extended to include
Livestock and Fisheries sub-sectors as well.
� Establishment of weather index-based Crop Insurance is also recommended with
provision of compensation for crop losses.
� Crop agriculture urgently needs medium/long range weather forecasting for
planning. A dynamic regional model should be developed to improve the
forecasting, long range in particular.
� In addition, it is necessary to establish an Agro- met Crop Yield Model. The model
needs to be calibrated under the local weather conditions of the country. Training of
the concerned expert is also required on the operation of the model. The model is
required by Food Planning & Monitoring unit (FPMU) of the Ministry of Food and
Disaster Management for estimating annual foodgrain requirement of the country.
Bangladesh 13
5.1.4 Action Plan for Implementation
Area of action Action time frame Organizations
responsible
Signing of MOU involving BMD, DAE,
NARS to strengthen the existing
forecast dissemination mechanism
Short term(6 months
to 1 year)
BARC, Ministry of
Agriculture
Providing Agro-met division with RS,
GIS to collect forecast information
accurately
Short term(6months
to1year)
BMD, Ministry of
Defence
Deputation of Agric. Scientists with
skill in RS,GIS at Agro-met division
Short term(6 months) BARC, Ministry of
Agriculture, BMD
Offering training to different
stakeholders(farmers, DAE, NARS) on
weather forecast and farmers’
advisories
Short term(6 months
to 1 year)
BMD,BARC,DAE
Publishing crop-season based agro-met
bulletins for farmers of different agro-
climatic zones
Short term(6 months) BMD,BARC,DAE
Staffing Agro-met division with expert
professionals and providing AWOS to
improve the resolution of model output
for forecasting
Medium term(1to 2
years)
BMD, Ministry of
Defence
Establishment of District Agro-met
Advisory Committee to develop
farmers’ advisory services
Short term(6 months
to 1 year)
BARC,DAE,NARS
Extension of Agro-met Advisory
System to include Fisheries and
Livestock sub-sector
Medium term(1 to 2
years)
BARC, Ministries of
Fisheries and
Livestock, BMD
Establishment of weather index-based
Crop Insurance
Long term(3 to5
years)
BARC, Ministry of
Agriculture,
DAE,BMD
Establishment of medium/long range
weather forecasting system at BMD
Medium term(2 to 3
years)
BMD, Ministry of
Defence
Establishment and calibration of Agro-
met Crop Yield Model
Long term(5 to 7
years)
FPMU, Ministry of
Food & Disaster
Management; BMD
14 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
5.1.5 References
Abedin, M. Z. 2009. Achieving food security at times of crisis: Bangladesh perspective. A
paper presented at the World Food Day, 16 October, 2009, MOA and FAO, Dhaka.
BMD. 2009, Brochure. Bangladesh Meteorological Department, Abhawa Bhaban,
Agargaon, Dhaka. 2009.
FAO and ADPC, 2005. Training manual for climate and flood forecast applications in
agriculture. FAO and ADPC.
FAO and ADPC, 2007. Climate Variability and Change. Adaptation to Drought in
Bangladesh. A Resource Book and Training Guideline.
Karim, Z. et.al. 1990. Soils publication no. 34, Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council
(BARC), Dhaka.
Mondal, M. H. 1997. Drought management technologies for sustainable crop production in
Bangladesh. A paper presented in the symposium of Bangladesh Society of
Agronomy.
Mondal, M. H. 2011. Existing Weather Forecast Systems of Bangladesh and their potential
to manage different risks to minimize crop productivity losses. Bangladesh
Agriculture, 4(1)
Tuber Crops Research Centre (TCRC), BARI. 2010. Personal communication with TCRC.
Area and production of potato affected by late blight disease in 2008-2009.
16 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
India 17
5.2.1. Introduction
There are ominous signs that the Earth's weather patterns have begun to change dramatically
and that these changes may portend a drastic decline in food production. Thus climate
change and climate variability are concerns of humankind. The recurrent droughts and floods
threaten seriously the livelihood of billions of people who depend on land for most of their
needs. The global economy has adversely been influenced due to droughts and floods, cold
and heat waves, forest fires, dust storms, hailstorms, thunder clouds associated with
lightning and sea level rise. In the long run, the climatic change could affect agriculture in
several ways:
• productivity, in terms of quantity and quality of crops
• agricultural practices, through changes of water use (irrigation) and agricultural
inputs such as herbicides, insecticides and fertilizers
• environmental effects, in particular in relation of frequency and intensity of soil
drainage (leading to nitrogen leaching), soil erosion, reduction of crop diversity
• rural space, through the loss and gain of cultivated lands, land speculation, land
renunciation, and hydraulic amenities.
• adaptation, organisms may become more or less competitive, as well as humans
may develop urgency to develop more competitive organisms, such as flood
resistant or salt resistant varieties of rice.
The Indian subcontinent has been exposed to disasters from time immemorial. The increase
in the vulnerability in recent years has been a serious threat to the overall development of the
country. Subsequently, the development process itself has been a contributing factor to this
susceptibility. Coupled with lack of information and communication channels, this had been
a serious impediment in the path of progress. India's vulnerability to various disasters has led
to mounting losses year after year. Mammoth funds were drawn to provide post disaster
relief to the growing number of victims of floods, cyclones, droughts and the less suspecting
landslides and earthquake. Indian agriculture is passing through a critical phase as the rate of
increase in crop production is barely keeping pace with the increase in population rates. As
more land cannot be diverted to agriculture, increase in unit area productivity of crops is
called for. Our recent experience is that the strategy of erring on the safe side through over-
irrigation, over-protection and over fertilization of crops has been counter-productive,
leading to a decrease in rates of crop production even under irrigation and degradation of soil
and air environments and pollution of surface and groundwater reserves. Despite
technological advances, such as improved varieties, genetically modified organisms, and
irrigation systems, weather is still a key factor in agricultural productivity, as well as soil
properties and natural communities. The effect of climate on agriculture is related to
variability in local climates rather than in global climate patterns.
The challenges facing agriculture in the country are ever increasing. In the first place
agriculture is highly weather dependent and hence subject to its variability. Secondly, the
possible impacts of climate change may pose major challenges. Finally, the very
sustainability of intensive agriculture using present technologies is being questioned in the
context of Global Climate Change debate. The combination of long-term changes and the
18 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
greater frequency of extreme weather events are likely to have adverse impacts on the
agricultural sector. Changes in hydrological regimes will directly impact agricultural
production and production methods. Reductions in crop yield and quality as the result of
reduced water availability and precipitation variability could result in a loss of rural income.
This loss of income will be further exacerbated by the need for increased spending as a result
of damage caused by extreme weather events. The problem therefore has to be addressed
collectively by scientists, administrators, planners and the society as a whole.
5.2.2. Indian Agriculture & Climatic variability in recent past
Agriculture represents a core part of the Indian economy and provides food and livelihood
activities to much of the Indian population. Majority of the food grain production in the
country still depends on rainfed agriculture. Stagnation/decline in yields is due to the inter-
annual and intra-seasonal climatic variability. Agricultural production is frequently affected
by extreme weather events such as droughts and cyclones. Climate induced vulnerability of
agriculture cause plateau in agriculture productivity in the country. Wide variation of rainfall
and temperature not only affect the crops in kharif season, but the effects are also being
manifested on rabi crops in winter season. The year 1999 witnessed a super cyclone striking
the eastern coast of India (Orissa State). It was a major natural disaster affecting the
subcontinent in recent years. Droughts of 1972 and 1987; the heat waves in 1995 and 1998
and the cold wave in 2003 killing several hundred people are still fresh in public memory.
The drought and failed monsoon of 2002, in particular, an unusually dry July, is matter of
concern for scientists and planners (De et al. 2005). .Severe drought in 2002 caused heavy
crop damage. The year 2002 was a classical example to show how Indian food grain
production depends on rainfall of July and it was declared as the all-India drought, as the
rainfall deficiency was 19% against the long period average of the country and 29% of area
was affected due to drought. The kharif food grain production was adversely affected by a
whopping fall of 19.1%. Huge crop losses were noticed in Maharashtra due to unseasonal
and poor distribution of rainfall during 1997-98. The year 2005 was another historic second
worst warmest year, heavy downpour over Mumbai on 26th July, 2005 (Single-day the
highest record rainfall of 944 mm) and 3rd September, 2005 over Bangalore; severe tropical
storms in Andhra Pradesh in September; and floods in Kerala, Karnataka, Maharashtra,
Gujarat, Orissa and Himachal Pradesh during the southwest monsoon (June-September) in
2005 in India devastated cropped area to a large extent in addition to losses of thousands of
human lives Similar was the case during all-India drought in 1979 and 1987. Occurrence of
droughts and floods during southwest monsoon across the country affects food grain
production to a greater extent. Again in 2006, occurrence of droughts and floods devastated
rice and other crops in Andhra Pradesh and 40% cereal production was affected in Karnataka
due to drought Torrential downpour in June, 2007 over Kerala, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh
and Maharashtra while in July and August over Gujarat, West Bengal, Orissa, Bihar, Uttar
Pradesh and Assam, led to floods. Heavy rains again in September in Andhra Pradesh,
Karnataka and Kerala led to floods and thus the year 2007 was the flood year in India. A
huge crop loss was noticed in several states of the country due to floods in kharif, 2007.
Study of the multi-decadal changes considering the data of past 50 years in break days
during monsoon season show that number of break days are more (Table 1) in July as
compared to August.
India 19
Table 1. Number of break days
PERIOD
NUMBER OF BREAK DAYS DURING
JJUULLYY AAUUGGUUSSTT
0011--1100 1111--2200 2211--3311 11--1100 1111--2200 2211--3311
11888888--11991177 46 49 53 43 84 26
11991188--11994477 14 36 21 55 54 25
11994488--11997777 22 44 64 21 33 41
11997788--22000033 23 32 39 6 14 37
Data of past 50 years show that number of Break days are more in July as compared to
August.
5.2.3. Extreme Weather and its impacts on crops
The weather and occurrence of climatic anomalies/extremes in different seasons in the
country are i) Cold wave, Fog, Snow storms and Avalanches ii) Hailstorms, Thunderstorms
and Dust storms iii) Heat wave iv) Tropical cyclones and Tidal waves v) Floods, Heavy rain
and Landslides vi) Droughts.
5.2.3.1 Cold wave
Occurrences of extreme low temperature in association with incursion of dry cold winds
from north into the sub continent are known as cold waves. The cold waves mainly affect the
areas to the north of 20°N. Long periods of extreme cold weather combined with other
meteorological phenomena result in the loss of winter crops, fruit crops and vineyards due to
frost injury. Low soil temperature at the depth of plant roots causes frost injury. Such
reduction in soil temperature occurs with strong frosts, in the absence of snow cover and
with deep freezing of the soil. Most frost injury to winter crops takes place in the first half of
winter before sufficient snow cover has formed. In the second half winter, frost injury
happens in regions with unstable snow cover. Under low temperatures basically a plant dries
out and the protoplasm (the living cell) dies. Damage to the part of a plant does not always
result in damage or destruction of the whole plant. A determining factor is the degree of frost
injury to a tillering node, if it is heavy the whole plant will perish. The winter crops most
frequently destroyed by frost are those grown on uplands, where snow cover is less and the
depth of soil freezing is greater. The main agrometeorological factor influencing frost
damage in winter crops is low soil temperature at the depth of the tillering node. Long (three
days or more) and intensive cooling causes complete devastation of the crops.
5.2.3.2 Drought
Droughts have an immediate effect on the recharge of soil moisture resulting in reductions of
stream flow, reservoir levels and irrigation potential and even the availability of drinking
water from wells. The acreage planted to food crops is also affected by land quality. The
cultivation of lands subject to a high degree of rainfall variability makes them extremely
susceptible to wind erosion (and desertification) during prolonged drought episodes, as the
bare soil lacks the dense vegetative cover necessary to minimize the effects of aeolian
processes. Due to uncertainty of rains during the drought, farmers sometimes make several
20 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
attempts at sowing of seeds leading to a drastic reduction in seed reserves which in due
course are neither sufficient for planting nor for consumption.
5.2.3.3 Fog
Immediately after the passage of a western disturbance (WD), a lot of moisture is available
in the atmosphere and the regional and synoptic scale conditions provide the trigger for the
formation of fog. Even though this phenomenon is not directly related to the extreme
weather events, it has an effect in all forms of transport and wind speed at the soil surface
and to increase the cohesion of soil particles are both crucial.
5.2.3.4 Thunderstorm, Hailstorm and Dust storm
The arid regions are characterized by frequent and strong winds which are partly due to
considerable convection during the day. The usually sparse vegetation is not capable of
slowing down air movement, so that dust and sand storms are frequent. Winds in dry
climatic zone also affect growth of the plant mechanically and physiologically. The sand and
dust particles carried out by wind damage plant tissues Winds also cause considerable losses
by inducing lodging, breaking the stalks and shedding of grains and ultimately decreasing
the yield As winter season gives way to spring, the temperature rises initially in the southern
parts of India, giving rise to thunderstorms and squally weather which are hazardous in
nature. While the southernmost part of the country is free from dust storm and hailstorm,
such hazardous weather affects the central, northeastern, north and northwestern parts of the
country.
5.2.3.5 Heat waves
Extreme positive departures from the normal maximum temperature result in heat waves
during the summer season. The rising maximum temperature during the pre-monsoon
months often continues till June, even in rare cases till July over the northwestern parts of
the country. Notably the period roughly coincided with last two decades of the twentieth
century which witnessed unprecedented high temperatures globally as a result of the global
warming.
5.2.3.6 Tropical Cyclones
Though several studies by De and Joshi (1995, 1999); Srivastava et al. (2000) showed a
decreasing trend in the frequency of Tropical Cyclones (TCs) and Monsoon Depressions
(MDs) over the north Indian Ocean (The Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea) in recent years,
their potential for damage and destruction still continues to be significant. A severe super
cyclonic storm with winds of up to 250 km/h-1, crossed the coast in Orissa on October 29,
1999. This proved to be the worst cyclone of the century in the Orissa region and was
responsible for as many as 10,000 deaths for rendering millions homeless and for extensive
damage Over the past decades, the frequency of tropical cyclones in the north Indian ocean
has registered significant increasing trends (20% per hundred years) during November and
May which account for maximum number of intense cyclones (Singh et al. 2000). Coffee
and bananas suffer the direct loss of fruits and mechanical damage due to tropical cyclones.
India 21
Nonetheless, food crop losses were estimated to be higher (35%), while the livestock sector
was less affected (8%, of which one fifth was poultry). The effects of strong winds in coastal
areas are seen in stunted and often much sculpted trees providing the evidence of the
direction of the strong winds. Fields inundated by the storm surge suffer a loss of fertility
due to salt deposition, even after the sea.
5.2.3.7 Floods
Floods and droughts over India are the two aspects of weather associated with the abundance
or deficit of monsoon rains. A large number of studies are available on various aspects of
floods and droughts. In general, the greatest damage to agriculture results from high
intensity rainstorms with sufficient duration as opposed to the low intensity, long duration
storms. Direct damage to growing plants from floods is most often caused by depletion of
oxygen available to the plant root zones. Flooding creates anaerobic soil conditions that can
have significant impacts on vegetation. Root and shoot asphyxia, if prolonged, typically
leads to plant death. Chemical reactions in anaerobic soils lead to a reduction in nitrate and
the formation of nitrogen gas. The de-nitrification can be a significant cause of loss of plant
vigour and growth following flooding. Soil erosion, disruption to critical agricultural
activities, the logging of crops, increased moisture leading to increased problems with
diseases and insects, soil moisture saturation and runoff, soil temperature reduction, grain
and fruit spoilage and transportation interruption are the more significant agricultural
impacts from heavy rainfall.
5.2.4. Signals of Climate change based on historic data
Global temperature has increased 0.15 to 0.30C decade-1 for 1990 to 2005. Next two
decades, warming of 0.20C decade
-1 is also projected. Indian scenario is not different.
Climate change studies for India with respect to temperature and rainfall have already been
made by a number of workers (Hingane et al., 1985, Thapliyal & Kulshrestha, 1991,
Srivastava et al.,1992, Rupa Kumar et al., 1994, Rupa Kumar et al., 2002,Govinda Rao et al.,
1996, Kothawale and Rupa Kumar, 2005, Chattopadhyay & Hulme, 1997, Das & Hunt,
2007). Fig. 1 shows annual rainfall of India and fig. 2 shows mean anomalies of average land
surface maximum and minimum temperature (0C) relative to their respective means (1901-
2003) values in northern and southern parts of India. Studies show that Indian temperatures
are steadily increasing and mean annual temperature has increased by about 0.40C in India
during the past century. In general, it can be mentioned that an increasing trend in
temperature has observed in southern and central India in the post monsoon season. The
warming is generally been accompanied by increased diuranality. Srivastava et al. (1992)
observed increasing trends of annual mean, maximum and minimum temperature south of
230N and cooling trends north of 23
0N. A number of other workers (Hingane et al., 1985,
Rupa Kumar & Hingane, 1988, Rupa Kumar et al., 1994, Govinda Rao et al., 1993)
concluded from their studies that an increasing trend in mean temperature in most parts of
Indian subcontinent has been observed most strongly in post monsoon and winter seasons.
Fig 3 shows linear trend expressed as a percentage of normal per 100 years and Fig 4 shows
linear trend of mean annual temperature per 100years in 0C. Kothawale and Rupa Kumar
(2005) reported that while all India mean annual temperature has shown significant warming
trend of 0.50C 10 yr
-1 during the period 1901-2003, the recent period 1971-2003 has seen a
22 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
relatively accelerated warming of 0.220C 10 yr
-1 which is largely due to the unprecedented
warming during the last decade. As per the study of Das & Hunt (2007) frequency of intense
rainfall events has increased over past 53 years. Extreme rainfall events also increased over
the west coast of India (based on analysis of 100 years of data; 1901-2000). Analysis of
meteorological measurements in India indicates large difference in trends in the minimum
temperature and cloud amounts between north and south India. There is also asymmetry in
the increasing temperature trends between different seasons in a year. These observations
along with the occurrence of extreme weather events lead to the importance of regional
climate changes. The interplay between the aerosols, clouds and mesoscale flows around
Indian mountains in global warming atmosphere may play a crucial role in the regional
climate in future. According to Rupa Kumar (2002) the summer monsoon rainfall during
1901-2000 has shown significant decreasing trends in the sub-division of northeast India,
Orissa and East Madhya Pradesh while increasing rainfall trends in Konkan and Goa, coastal
Karnataka along the west coast and in Punjab, Haryana and Delhi.
Fig. 5 and 6 shows linear trend (0C decade
-1) in mean temperature and diurnal temperature
for 1940-90 for different seasons over India based on 27 stations Linear trend (0C decade
-1)
respectively. In spite of general increased in temperature over recent decades, there has been
decreased trend in Pan Evaporation (Ep) in almost all the parts of India particularly
significant in premonsoon and monsoon season (Chattoadhyay & Hulme, 1997). Fig. 7.
shows regionally averaged annual Ep anomalies (mm day-1) for the period 1961-1992 with
respect to the 1976-90 mean for different seasons over India and Fig. 8 shows regionally
averaged annual PE anomalies (mm day-1) for the period 1976-90 with respect to the 1976-
90 mean for different seasons over India.
Seasonal and spatial pattern of changes in Potential Evapotranspiration (PE) are similar to
those for Ep, but magnitude of changes is less. In monsoon and post monsoon seasons PE
has decreased over the whole country, whereas in the winter and pre-monsoon season the
trend is less consistence.
Fig. 1. Annual rainfall of India.Thick line-five year running mean
(Source: Thapliyal & Kulshrestha , 1991)
India 23
Fig. 2. Anomalies of average land surface maximum and minimum temperature (0C)
relative to their respective means (1901-2003) values in northern and southern
parts of India. The smoothed curve is obtained using 21 point binomial filter.
(Source: Thapliyal & Kulshrestha , 1991)
Fig. 3. Linear trend expressed as a percentage
of normal per 100 years, 1971-84 for
monsoon rainfall. Hatched areas
indicates negative trend & stipped
areas indicates significance at 5%
level
( Source Rupa Kumar et al., 1992)
Fig. 4. Linear trend of mean annual temp.
(oCper100years). Shaded areas
indicates significance at 95%
level
( Source : Hingane et al., 1985)
24 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
Fig. 5. Linear trend (0C decade
-1) in mean
temperature for 1940-90 for different
seasons over India based on 27
stations (dots) Dot size is related to
trend
(Source: Chattopadhyay & Hulme, 1997)
Fig. 6. Linear trend (0C decade
-1) in
diurnal temperature range for
1940-90 for different seasons
over India based on 27 stations
(dots). Dot size is related to trend
(Source: Chattopadhyay & Hulme, 1997)
Fig. 7. Regionally averaged annual Ep
anomalies (mm day-1) for the
period 1961-1992 with respect to
the 1976-90 mean for different
seasons over India. Number of
stations is ten between 1961-75
and 1991-92 and 19 between 1976
and 1990. Dashed lines show best
fit linear trend.
(Source: Chattopadhyay & Hulme, 1997)
Fig. 8. Regionally averaged annual PE
anomalies (mm day-1) for the
period 1976-90 with respect to the
1976-90 mean for different
seasons over India. Number of
stations averaged is ten. Dashed
lines show best fit linear trend.
(Source: Chattopadhyay & Hulme, 1997)
India 25
5.2.5. Projection of climate change in India
Using a number of Global Circulation Models different scenarios have been generated for
the future climate change in India. It has been projected that average surface temperature
will increase by 2-40C during 2050s, marginal changes in monsoon rain in monsoon months
(JJAS) and large changes of rainfall during non-monsoon months. Number of rainy days set
to decrease by more than 15 days and intensity of rains to increase by 1-4 mm/day. Increase
in frequency and intensity of cyclonic storms is projected. The hydrological cycle is
predicted to be more intense, with higher annual average rainfall as well increased drought
(Bhattacharya, 2006). Fig. 9 and Fig. 10 shows rainfall and temperature projections at
different seasons. There is a predicted increase in extreme rainfall and rainfall intensity in
all three river basins (Ganga, Godavari & Krishna) towards the end of the century 21st
century. Number of rainy days decreases in the western parts of the Ganga basin, but with
increases over most parts of the Godavari and Krisha basins. Thus, surface water availability
showed a general increase over all 3 basins though future populations projections would
need to be considered to project per capita water availability. According to Lal et al. (2001)
an annual mean area-averaged surface warming over the Indian subcontinent will range
between 3.5 and 5.60C over the region by 2080. These projections showed more warming in
winter season over summer monsoon. The spatial distribution of surface warming suggests a
mean annual rise in surface temperatures in north India by 30C or more by 2050. The study
also suggests that during winter the surface mean air temperature could rise by 30C in north
and central parts while it would rise by 20C in southern parts by 2050. In case of rainfall, a
marginal increase of 7 to 10 per cent in annual rainfall is projected over the subcontinent by
the year 2080. However, the study suggests a fall in rainfall by 5 to 25% in winter while it
would be 10 to 15 % increase in summer monsoon rainfall over the country.
Future changes in PE over India and adjoining countries will increase in all the global
climate models. In the winter seasons, maximum models show increasing trend in PE over
southern and central India up to around 250N. In most of the model experiments maximum
winter increased in PE is of the order of 3-4% per degree Celsius of global warming and is
seen in peninsular and most central parts of India. In the monsoon season maximum
increased in PE over northwestern India. Inter relationship between PE and rainfall was
assessed by mapping the number of GCM experiments which yield and increased the P/PE
ratio for the monsoon season. A number of GCMs agree that P/PE ratio becomes more
favorable over northeastern India and changes in this ratio are less favorable in post
monsoon season and in the extreme south in the country. (Chattopadhyay & Hulme 1997).
Fig. 11 and 12 shows calculated change (%) in mean seasonal PE for CCC experiment and
the GFDL experiment for 10C of global warming. And Fig 13 and 14 shows mean seasonal
change in UKTR experiment and number of GCM experiments which yield an increase in
P/PE ratio for each season.
26 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
Fig. 9. Rainfall projections at different seasons
(Source: Bhattacharya, 2006)
Fig. 10.Temperature projections at different seasons
(Source: Bhattacharya, 2006)
India 27
Fig. 11. Calculated change (%) in mean
seasonal PE for 10C of global
warming for the CCC experiment.
(Source: Chattopadhyay & Hulme, 1997)
Fig. 12. Calculated change (%) in mean
seasonal PE for 10C of global
warming for the GFDL experiment
(Source: Chattopadhyay & Hulme, 1997)
Fig.13. Calculated change (%) in mean
seasonal PE for 1oC of global
warming for the UKTR
experiment.
(Source: Chattopadhyay & Hulme, 1997)
Fig.14. Number of GCM experiments which yield
an increase in P/PE ratio for each season.
Maximum number is six. Areas of
agreement in the sign of the change
between all six GCMs are shaded.
(Source: Chattopadhyay & Hulme, 1997)
28 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
5.2.6. Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture
India, located in south central Asia, has great economic dependence on agriculture. A likely
impact of climate change on agricultural productivity in India is causing great concern to the
scientists and planners as it can hinder their attempts for achieving household food security.
Assessment of Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change is in Fig. 15.
Any major changes in water budget and change in temperature have major consequence in
hydrologic processes and agriculture and in turn economy of the country. The potential
effect of climate change on agriculture in India would be the shift in the sowing time and
length of growing season which would ultimately alter planting and harvesting dates of crops
and varieties currently use in a particular areas. With warmer temperatures,
evapotranspiration rates would rise, which would call for much greater efficiency of water
use. Also weeds and insect pests could sift.
As per the findings in the AR4 of the IPCC, Working Groups I, II and III, there will be
decrease up to 30% in south and central Asia by 2050. Sinha and Swaminathan (1991)
showed that an increase of 20C in temperature could decrease the rice yield by about 0.75 ton
ha-1 in the high yield areas; and 0.5
0C increase in winter temperature would reduce wheat
yield by 0.45 ton ha-1. Increased temperature is likely to reduce the wheat production
particularly in north India. Morey and Sadaphal (1981) reported a decrease of wheat yield by
400 kg ha-1 for a unit increase of 10C. Rao and Sinha (1994) showed that wheat yields could
decrease between 28 to 68% without considering the CO2 fertilization effects; and would
range between +4 to -34% after considering CO2 fertilization effects. Aggarwal and Sinha
(1993) using WTGROWS model showed that 20C temperature rise would decrease wheat
yields in most places. Saseendran et al. (2000) showed that for every one degree rise in
temperature, the decline in rice yield would be about 6%. Decrease in yield of crops would
be due to the temperature increase in different parts of India For example a 20C increase in
mean air temperature, rice yields could decrease by about 0.75 ton ha-1 in the high yield
areas and by about 0.06 ton ha-1 in the low yield coastal regions. Major impacts of climate
change will be on rainfed crops (other than rice and wheat), which account for nearly 60% of
cropland area. The loss in farm-level net revenue will range between 9 and 25% for a
temperature rise of 2-3.50C. The study found that increase in temperature (by about 2
0C)
reduced potential grain yields in most places. Regions with higher potential productivity
(such as northern India) were relatively less impacted by climate change than areas with
lower potential productivity (the reduction in yields was much smaller). Climate change is
also predicted to lead to boundary changes in areas suitable for growing certain crops.
Reduction in yields as a result of climate change are predicted to be more pronounced for
rain fed crops (as opposed to irrigated crops) and under limited water supply situations
because there are no coping mechanisms for rainfall variability. The difference in yield is
influenced by baseline climate. Overall temperature increases are predicted to reduce rice
yields. An increase of 2-40C is predicted to result in a reduction in yields. Eastern regions are
predicted to be most impacted by increased temperatures and decreased radiation, resulting
in relatively fewer grains and shorter grain filling durations. By contrast, potential reduction
in yields due to increased temperatures in Northern India is predicted to be offset by higher
radiation, lessening the impacts of climate change. Although additional CO2 can benefit
crops, this effect was nullified by an increase of temperature. It clearly indicates that the
India 29
yield of wheat, mustard, barley and chickpea show sign of stagnation or decrease following
rise in temperature at all the four northern states. However, the extent of decrease was
different for crops as well as there locations.
Agriculture will be worst affected in the coastal regions of Gujarat and Maharashtra, where
agriculturally fertile areas are vulnerable to inundation and salinization. Standing crop in
these regions is also more likely to be damaged due to cyclonic activity. In Rajasthan, 20C
rise in temperature was estimated to reduce production of pearl millet by 10-15 per cent. The
state of Madhya Pradesh, where soybean is grown on 77 per cent of all agricultural land,
could duplicitously benefit from an increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. According
to some studies, soybean yield could go up to by as much as 50 per cent if the concentration
of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere doubles. However, if this increase in carbon dioxide is
accompanied by an increase in temperature, as expected, then soybean yields could actually
decrease. Changes in the soil, pests and weeds brought by climate change will also affect
agriculture in India.
There is thus an urgent need to address the climate change and variability issues holistically.
Climate change, energy security and food security are interlinked, and require an integrated
approach. Some specific options have already been identified, tested and documented for
climate change mitigation and adaptation for agriculture sector, such as sustainable land and
forest management; changing varieties; more efficient water use; altering the timing or
location of cropping activities; improving the effectiveness of pest, disease and weed
management practices and making better use of seasonal climate forecasts to reduce
production risks. If these options are widely adopted, they could have substantial potential to
offset negative impacts from climate change and take advantage of positive impacts. To cope
Fig. No. 15 Assessment of Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change
Direct effect on Crop Growth
� Physiology � Phenology � Morphology
Indirect effects
� Soil fertility � Irrigation availability � Pests � Floods & Droughts � Sea level rise
Socio-economics � Food demand � Cost & benefits � Policy � Trade � Farmers response
Agricultural Production & Vulnerability
Human intervention Adaptation strategies Mitigation Strategies
Climate Change
30 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
with climate change more effectively, it is necessary to identify integrated adaptation and
mitigation options for a range of agro-ecosystems so as to enable a favorable policy
environment for the implementation of the framework. The policy implications are wide-
reaching, as changes in agriculture could affect food security, trade policy, livelihood
activities and water conservation issues, impacting large portions of the population
5.2.7. Agromet Advisory Service to minimize crop loss
It has long been recognized that if society could have advance information on weather, the
adverse effects associated with it could be minimized. Climate determines the general
adaptation of ecosystems and land use activities at any location. Year to year recurrences of
extreme climate events such as drought, flooding, hot/cold spells, etc. often have far
reaching consequences in agriculture. Advance warning of such events through climate
prediction can minimize various socio-economic problems which are often associated with
such events. The severity of the socio-economic impacts of climate related stress varies
significantly from one region to another. The impacts are generally more severe in many
developing countries particularly in SAARC countries where technological adaptations are
often very low, and where most of the agricultural systems are rain dependent.
Socio-economic challenges of the next century will include population pressure,
industrialization, environmental degradation, and anthropogenic climate change issues,
among others. Thus some climate stress in this century may be able to induce far more
serious socio-economic disasters in the next century. Advance warning of impending
extreme climate events, especially within time scales of months to years, would provide vital
information which could be used for sustainable agricultural production. Such early warning
information can also form crucial components of national/regional disaster preparedness
system which will help to minimise loss of life and property including damage to
agricultural investments.
Adaptation can be defined as any action that seeks to reduce the negative effects of climate
change. Several adaptation measures are available to reduce vulnerability to climate change
by enhancing adaptive capacity and increasing resilience. There is a considerable scope for
decreasing the vulnerability of agriculture to increasing weather and climatic variability and
climate change through weather forecast based agro-advisories.
A national meteorological or other agrometeorological service contributes to the national
economy, and obtain best recognition and remuneration for the investments made in
agricultural meteorology, throughout the effective use of information by the agricultural
community in the widest sense. Improvements in agricultural production may well occur
first where the inputs into agriculture are the highest. Such inputs are of a different nature:
genetic material, energy, water, adapted use of the soil and of the landscape and plant
nutrients, management and of course weather. The delivery of regular agrometeorological
advisory and weather forecasts for agriculture is meant to serve an important segment of the
county’s economy. The development of this service is necessary since modern day
agricultural operations are becoming increasingly dependant upon detailed and accurate
predictions of meteorological elements. Meteorological information is important for making
many operational decisions and agriculturalists need weather information both for long range
or strategic decisions and for short range or tactical decisions.
India 31
5.2.7.1 Integrated Agromet Advisory Service scheme
India Meteorological Department (IMD), Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), is operating an
integrated Agro-Meteorological Advisory Service (AAS) at district level, in India, which
represents a small step towards agriculture management in rhythm with weather and climate
variability leading to weather proofing for farm production. Under AAS, needs of farming
community was defined through ascertaining information requirement of diverse groups of
end-users. It emerged, that prime need of the farmer is location specific weather forecast in
quantitative terms. Hence, the same was developed and made operational in June, 2008.
Thereafter, mechanism was developed to integrated weather forecast and climatic
information along with agro-meteorological information to prepare district level agro-
advisories outlining the farm management actions to harness favorable weather and mitigate
impacts of adverse weather. A system has also been developed to communicate and
disseminate the agro-meteorological advisories to strengthen the information out reach. The
institutional dissemination channels such as farmer association, Non-Governmental
Organizations (NGOs), input suppliers, progressive farmers are also employed. Operational
mechanism involving different organizations for implementation of IAAS is in Fig. 16.
Fig. 16 Operational mechanism involving different organizations for implementation of
IAAS
Ministry Of Earth Sciences Government of India
(AAS Steering Committee
IMD Agromet Services
State Department
of Agriculture
State Meteorological
Centre (23) IMD
AMFU (130 Agroclimatic Zones) – SAUs/ICAR
Institute/IITs
District level Agriculture Extension setup (512),
DAO/KVK/ATMA
Block Level (BDO) Farm Inpute Management
Village Level
CSC, DIT
NGO,
MSSRF
Extension Directorate of University
Local Media(AIR/TV/Print),
NGOs
State Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) 1. Drought Monitoring Centre 2. 2. State RS Application Centre
3. DAO/KVK/NGO
NCMRCWF-Location specific weather Forecast Development Department of Agri. & Coop. NCFC/ATMA/CWWG/ ICAR R&D Inputs Dept. of Space & Crop Information Prasar Bharati Department of Information
Technology
32 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
The main emphasis of the existing AAS system is to collect and organize climate/weather,
soil and crop information, and to amalgamate them with weather forecast to assist farmers in
taking management decisions. This has helped to develop and apply operational tools to
manage weather related uncertainties through agro-meteorological applications for efficient
agriculture in rapidly changing environments.
5.2.7.1.1 Activities under different Tier
This project is being implemented through five tier structure to set up different components
of the service spectrum. It include meteorological (weather observing & forecasting),
agricultural (identifying weather sensitive stress & preparing suitable advisory using weather
forecast), extension (two way communication with user) and information dissemination
(Media, Information Technology, Telecom) agencies
I. The broad spectrum of the activities of different tier is given below in Fig 17.
Fig. 17 Broad spectrum of the activities of different tiers
5.2.7.1.2 Weather Forecast for Agriculture
The weather forecast for agriculture is a specialized forecast issued to serve an important
segment of the county’s economy. The development of this service is necessary since
modern day agricultural operations are becoming increasingly dependant upon detailed and
accurate predictions of meteorological elements. Meteorological information is important for
making many operational decisions and agriculturalists need weather information both for
long range or strategic decisions and for short range or tactical decisions
India 33
An agricultural weather forecast should refer to all weather elements, which immediately
affect farm planning or operations. Though the elements vary from place to place and from
time to time, it should include the following:
• Rainfall distribution and its probability
• Temperature
• Wind
• Humidity
• Dew
• Dry spells
IMD has started issuing quantitative district level (612 districts) weather forecast up to 5
days since 1st June, 2008. The products comprise of quantitative forecasts for 7 weather
parameters viz., rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperatures, wind speed, wind
direction, relative humidity and cloudiness. In addition, weekly cumulative rainfall forecast
is also provided. IMD, New Delhi generates these products using Multi Model Ensemble
technique based on forecast products available from number models of India and other
countries. These include: T-254 model of NCMRWF, T-799 model of European Centre for
Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF); United Kingdom Met Office (UKMO),
National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), USA and Japan Meteorological
Agency (JMA). The products are disseminated to Regional Meteorological Centres and
Meteorological Centres of IMD located in different states. These offices undertake value
addition to these products using synoptic interpretation of model out put and communicate to
130 AgroMet Field Units (AMFUs), located with State Agriculture Universities (SAUs),
institutes of Indian Council of Agriculture Research (ICAR) etc. on every Tuesday and
Thursday. Weather forecasting system setup in fig. 18 below.
Fig. 18 Weather forecasting system setup in IMD
34 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
5.2.7.1.3 Special weather forecast for agriculture
Special weather forecast for agriculture provides the necessary meteorological input to assist
farmers in making decisions. The requirements for these special forecasts will vary during
the season, from season to season and from crop to crop. These forecasts are normally issued
for planting, applying agricultural chemical crop protection, forestry operations as well as
for serving other weather related agricultural elements associated with the crop and its
location.
5.2.7.1.4 Agromet Advisory Service Bulletins at different levels
The Agro-met Advisory Bulletins are issued at district, state and national levels to cater the
needs of local level to national level. The district level bulletins are issued by AMFUs and
include crop specific advisories including field crops, horticultural crops and livestock. At
present these bulletins are issued for 563 districts of the country. The State Level bulletin is a
composite of district bulletins helping to identify the distressed district of the state as well as
plan the supply of appropriate farm inputs such as seeds, irrigation water, fertilizer,
pesticides etc. These bulletins are jointly prepared by State Meteorological Centre of IMD
and AMFUs and mainly used by State Government functionaries. This is also useful to
Fertilizer industry, Pesticide industry, Irrigation Department, Seed Corporation, Transport
and other organizations which provide inputs in agriculture. This bulletin is a significant
input to the State level Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) meeting. Presently, these
bulletins are issued for all the states of the country. National Agromet Advisory Bulletins are
prepared by National Agromet Advisory Service Centre, Division of Agriculture
Meteorology, IMD, Pune, using inputs from various states. This bulletin helps identify
stress on various crops for different regions of the country and suitably incorporate
advisories. Ministry of Agriculture is prime user of these bulletins, which help take
important decisions in Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) meetings at national level. The
bulletins are also used by a large number of other agencies including fertilizer, pesticide
industries. District Level Advisory bulletins are being prepared and uploaded in the website
of Agrimet Division (http://imdagrimet.gov.in).
5.2.7.1.5 Translating forecast into crop advisories
Application of weather forecast to generate crop advisories is linked to accuracy, spatial
domain of validity and temporal range. In view of these requirements of farming community,
district level forecasts are issued for above listed parameters for next 5 days and same are
translated into crop specific advisories keeping in view their phenological stages for farmer’s
guidance on cultural practices.
District-specific medium-term forecast information and advisories help maximize output and
avert crop damage or loss. It also helps growers anticipate and plan for chemical
applications, irrigation scheduling, disease and pest outbreaks and many more weather
related agriculture-specific operations. Such operation include cultivar selection, their dates
of sowing/planting/transplanting, dates of intercultural operations, dates of harvesting and
also performing post harvest operations. Agromet advisories help increase profits by
consistently delivering actionable weather information, analysis and decision support for
farming situations such as: to manage pests through forecast of relative humidity,
India 35
temperature and wind; manage irrigation through rainfall & temperature forecasts; protect
crop from thermal stress through forecasting of extreme temperature conditions etc.
At local level or at farm level Long-range forecasts could provide the indications of
monsoon rainfall variability. There are at least four significant aberrations in rainfall
behavior that could upset established crop calendars and yields:
1. The commencement of rains may be quite early or considerably delayed.
2. There may be prolonged “breaks” during the cropping season.
3. There may be spatial and/or temporal aberrations.
4. The rains may terminate considerably early or continue for longer periods.
To deal with these aberrations, farmers could respond to forecasts to undertake these
measures:
• Change variety for one with shorter or longer duration;
• Change crop species or mix of species, especially combinations of cash and food
crops;
• Implement soil and water conservation techniques;
• Increase or decrease area planted, either total, by crop, or by upland or lowland
location;
• Adjust timing of land preparation;
• Increase or decrease borrowing for inputs;
• Sell or purchase livestock depending on anticipated cost and availability of feed; or
• Remain in village or migrate to seek off-farm employment or better grazing for
livestock.
Whereas at regional level or provincial level it can help policy makers to take certain
initiatives on the following aspects to mitigate the adverse situation:
a. Water Resources Management: Water resources managers at catchment,
watershed and river basin levels could undertake proactive measures to manage
water resources. There is a potential possibility of introducing water budgeting
arrangements to prioritize water use and allocate water resources among various
competitive users. In areas where water availability for irrigation purposes is scarce,
a campaign can be launched to advise farmers to provide minimum irrigation only at
the critical crop stages. The lead-time available could be used for augmenting water
resources by constructing small-scale water harvesting structures and rehabilitating
old irrigation structures.
b. Compensatory Cropping Program: This has two dimensions. One is to try to
compensate for crop loss in the most severely affected areas (MSA) by intensifying
the production program and increasing yield in the most favorable areas (MFA)
where there are expectations of good rainfall and availability of assured irrigation
sources. The second is to make up the crop loss in the same area by taking up short
duration cultivars.
c. Alternate Cropping Strategy: This involves shifting of crops which could be
grown on the availability of soil moisture during less than normal conditions. The
success of this strategy could depend on government intervention in providing input
and market support to farmers.
36 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
The above-mentioned approaches need to be matched with irrigation potential and
agroclimatic zonation maps to evolve suitable cropping patterns, keeping in view El Niño
influences on rainfall patterns in various regions. Provincial level institutions would have
lead-time to provide agricultural input support, credit arrangements and technical advisories
to enable farmers to undertake contingency crop plans. Provincial administrations could also
provide support for marketing the agricultural products.
5.2.7.1.6 Weather Observing System
District-level service needs meteorological observations at sub-district levels. The current
observation forms the basis for running the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models
and also refining the weather forecast generated at district scale. Also, the historical climate
data is needed to support the crop planning. The India Meteorological Department (IMD)
has a network of 125 Automatic Weather Station (AWS) and a large number of manual
observatories. IMD is in the process to set up 550 additional AWS and 1350 Automatic Rain
Gauge (ARG) stations in the first phase of its modernisation plan. With this, every district in
the country will have at least one AWS and two ARG stations. In the second phase the
network density of AWS/ARGs will be further enhanced so as to automatically record
meteorological observations at near block level. In addition to this, a network of 55 Doppler
Weather Radar has been planned of which 12 are to be commissioned in the first phase.
Techniques have been developed to assimilate large volumes of satellite-derived
information. A new satellite INSAT-3D is being launched in the year 2009. Through
improvement in observing systems, there will be further improvement in defining the initial
conditions to run the numerical weather prediction models which may lead to higher
accuracy in weather forecast.
Under the AAS system, more focus has been started to be given to use the crop/soil
simulation models to decide crop management strategies, for the given weather condition.
Agricultural scientists at Agrometeorological Field Units have started using crop simulation
models as a decision support tool for helping with weather forecast based farm management
decision making as they are more objective. For example, the Agro-meteorological Field
unit can objectively assess the impact of skipping irrigation at a particular phenophase of a
crop on its dry matter yield though with some uncertainties. Agrometeorologists can
consider many of the factors involved, and answer the question with a reasonable estimate.
The crop models are also be used as technique for prediction of different phenophases and
final yield.
5.2.7.1.7 Agro-meteorological support for farm management
Weather based farm advisories as support system has been organized after characterization
of agro-climate, including length of crop growing period, moisture availability period,
distribution of rainfall and evaporative demand of the regions, weather requirements of
cultivars and weather sensitivity of farm input applications. All this is used as background
information. Following are the ingredients of a typical Agromet Advisory Bulletin to reap
benefits of benevolent weather and minimize or mitigate the impacts of adverse weather;
i) District specific weather forecast, in quantitative terms, for next 5 days for rainfall,
cloud, max/min temperature, wind speed/direction and relative humidity,
India 37
including forewarning of hazardous weather event likely to cause stress on
standing crop and suggestions to protect the crop from them.
ii) Weather forecast based information on soil moisture status and guidance for
application of irrigation, fertilizer and herbicides etc.
iii) The advisories on dates of sowing/planting and suitability of carrying out
intercultural operations covering the entire crop spectrum from pre-sowing to post
harvest to guide farmer in his day–today cultural operations.
iv) Weather forecast based forewarning system for major pests and diseases of
principal crops and advises on plant protection measures.
v) Propagation of techniques for manipulation of crop’s microclimate e.g. shading,
mulching, other surface modification, shelter belt, frost protection etc. to protect
crops under stressed conditions.
vi) Reducing contribution of agricultural production system to global warming and
environment degradation through judicious management of land, water and farm
inputs, particularly pesticides, herbicides and fertilizers.
vii) Advisory for livestock on health, shelter and nutrition.
The support on above is rendered through preparing district specific agrometeorological
advisory bulletins which are tailored to meet the farmers’ need and are made relevant to his
decision making processes. The suggested advisories generally alter actions in a way that
improves outcomes. It contains advice on farm management actions aiming to take
advantage of good weather and mitigate the stress on crop/livestock. Hence, while
formulating the bulletin one ought to know the crop condition. Ideally, farmer should place
request to the AMFU/IMD either directly or via the extension officer. But more often than
not, such information has to be assessed through field observation, media reports, farmers’
feedback, and remote sensing (NDVI etc) observations. The desired information is also
obtained by exploratory surveys or participatory methods of personal interactions with
farmers. The critical issues in this regard as summarized by Hansen (2002) are followed and
include: a) site specificity – that farmers are aware of spatial variability and can recognize
scale mismatches between the forecasts and their on farm decisions; b) temporal specificity –
including timing relative to decisions and impacts, highlighting factors such as onset of
rainfall, dry spell distribution, and weather conditions during harvest; and, c) skill of the
forecast – often in different terms from the forecasters but relative to the other risks within
their farming operations.
The bulletins are encoded in a format and language which is easy to comprehend by the
farmer. The agrometeorologists first interpret the immediate past weather and the forecast
for next 5 days and translate it into layman’s terms so that the farmers can understand it.
Thus, the agrometeorologists play a vital role in the encoding and decoding of the messages
from the meteorologists to the agricultural sector. Also, interaction between the AMFUs and
farmers to identify the weather sensitive decisions is promoted under the service. This step
enables a relationship between the IMD, AMFUs and the farmers so that they can identify or
diagnose the gaps in weather information available from the IMD. As the interaction
between the weather and agriculture is complex, it is not just a case of applying a simple
solution and expecting implementation by the farmers. So, an awareness process to
understand the influence of weather and climate on sustainable agricultural production as
outlined by Sivakumar, et al., (2000) is followed.
38 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
5.2.7.1.8 Management of Extreme weather on Agriculture through Agromet Advisory
Services
a. Cold injury and frost : A key factor in protection of crops from cold injury is
stable air temperature and snow covers throughout the winter. Thaws, resulting in
packing or disappearing snow cover, worsen dormancy conditions and reduce or
destroy the protective properties of snow cover. The prevention of crop damage by
frost can be controlled by breaking up the inversion that accompanies intense night
time radiation. This may be achieved by heating the air by the use of oil burners
which are strategically located throughout the agricultural farm Other methods of
frost protection include sprinkling the crops with water brushing (putting a
protective cover of craft paper over plant) and the use of shelterbelts (windbreaks).
b. Drought : In arid, semi-arid and marginal areas there is a probability of drought
incidence once in ten years. It is important for those responsible for planning of
land-use, including agricultural programmes, to seek expert climatological advice
regarding rainfall expectations. Drought impact is the result of the interaction of
human pattern of land use and the rainfall regimes. There is thus an urgent need for a
detailed examination of rainfall records of these regions. Agricultural planning and
practices need to be worked out with consideration to the overall water requirements
within an individual agroclimatic zone. Crops which need a short duration to mature
and require relatively little water, need to be encouraged in drought prone areas.
Irrigation, through canals and groundwater resources, needs to be monitored with
optimum utilization avoiding soil salinity and excessive evaporation loss. In areas of
recurring drought, one of the best strategies for alleviating drought is varietal
manipulation, through which drought can be avoided or its effects can be minimised
by adopting varieties that are drought-resistant at different growth stages. If drought
occurs during the middle of a growing season, corrective measures can be adopted;
these vary from reducing plant population to fertilization or weed management.
Rainfall can be harvested in either farm ponds or in village.
c. Dust storm, sand storm : In most countries, afforestation of fields is the main
measure to protect the soil from dust storms. Improving soil resistance to erosion
can be achieved by careful selection of cultivation methods, applying mineral and
organic fertilizers, sowing grass and spraying various substances which enhance soil
structure. It is also an important to reduce the areas where a dust can gather,
especially in tracts characterized by erosion. One major protection strategy is to
establish well developed plant cover before the dust storms period. This can
encourage a reduction in the wind speed in the layer above the ground by forming an
effective buffer.
When assessing the impacts of the dust storms on agricultural crops, it is necessary
to take into account the degree of the development of the plants. On well-tilled
crops, the deposition of soil moved by airflow is observed more often than soil
carried by wind erosion over long distances.
When looking at the conditions under which dust storms develop and by examining
the data on storm-induced damage, it is evident that measures to reduce the wind
speed at the soil surface and to increase the cohesion of soil particles are both,
India 39
crucial. Such measures include the establishment of tree belts and wind breaks.
Leaving stubble in fields, avoiding ploughing with mould boards, application of
chemical substances promoting the cohesion of soil particles, soil-protective crop
rotation using perennial grasses and seeding of annual crops are also important
rotation. In regions with intensive wind erosion, especially on slopes or on light
soils, strip cultivation may be used. On fallow lands, bare fallow strips of 50-100 m
can be alternated with strips of grain crops or perennial grasses and spring crops can
be alternated with winter crops.
d. Cyclone: Disaster preparedness for impending cyclones, as is known, refers to the
plan of action needed to minimize loss to human lives, damage to property and
agriculture. Preparedness for cyclones in the agricultural systems can include early
harvesting of crops (if mature), safe storage of the harvest etc. Irrigation canals and
embankment of rivers in the risk zone should be repaired to avoid breaching. Crop
damage by winds can be minimised or prevented by the use of windbreaks
(shelterbelts). These are natural (e.g. trees, shrubs, or hedges) or artificial (e.g walls,
fences) barriers to wind flow to shelter animals or crops. Properly oriented and
designed shelterbelts are very effective in stabilizing agriculture in the regions where
strong wind causes mechanical damage and imposes severe moisture stress on
growing crops. Windbreaks prevent the loose soil being lifted by erosion and
increase the supply of moisture to the soil in spring. Beyond this, as the storm
approaches the area, nothing can be done
e. Flood: Soils that are saturated prior to an extreme weather event are more likely to
be affected severely by a damaging flood than soils that are relatively dry. Fields
that have recently been tilled and are devoid of vegetation are much more
susceptible to water erosion. Vegetation that is able to use much of the water and
that can act as a barrier to moving water (horizontally and vertically) can reduce
flood severity and impacts. Water storage systems (rivers, lakes, reservoirs, etc.) that
are able to capture and hold most of the incoming water are usually effective in
reducing flood damage.
5.2.7.1.9 Adaptation to Climate Change & Climate Variability through Agromet
Advisory Services
Several adaptation measures are available to reduce vulnerability to climate change by
enhancing adaptive capacity and increasing resilience. Farmers can adopt coping
mechanisms that withstand climate variability through activities such as the use of drought-
resistant or salt-resistant crop varieties, the more efficient use of water resources and
improved pest management. Adjustments may include the introduction of late-maturing crop
varieties, switching cropping sequences, sowing earlier, adjusting timing of field operations,
conserving soil moisture through appropriate tillage methods and improving irrigation
efficiency. Some of the adaptive measures communicated through the Agromet Advisory
bulletins are:
• Adjustment of planting dates to minimize the effect of temperature increase-induced
spikelet sterility to reduce yield instability, by avoiding having the flowering period
to coincide with the hottest period.
40 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
• Changing the cropping calendar to take advantage of the wet period and to avoid
extreme weather events (e.g., cyclones and storms) during the growing season.
• Cultivation of crop varieties that are resistant to lodging (e.g.short rice
cultivars)which withstand strong winds during the sensitive stage of crop growth.
• Development of cultivars resistant to climate change; adopting new farm techniques
that respond to the management of crops under stressful conditions, plant pests and
disease
• Shifts on sowing date of crops for more effective use of the soil moisture content.
• Moving forward the dates of crop sowing in a crop rotation calendar and farmers to
plant a second crop that could even be vegetable with a short growth period.
• With increased evapotranspiration, orientation toward a shift from conventional
crops to types of agriculture that are not vulnerable to evapotranspiration
• Cultivation of heat resistant crop varieties by utilizing genetic resources that may be
better adapted to warmer and drier conditions.
• Growing of suitable cultivars (to counteract compression of crop
development),increasing crop intensities (i.e.the number of successive crops
produced per unit area per year), or planting different types of crops.
5.2.7.1.10 Dissemination of Agrometeorological Bulletins
The task of AAS is to provide information to help farmers make the best possible use of
weather and climate resources. While disseminating the information, it is presumed that the
farmers possess relevant knowledge and skills. Although concerted efforts are being made to
set up two way communications, but as of now the information flow is largely one-way. As
agro-meteorologists at Agrometeorological Field Units (AMFUs) have less frequent
interaction with the farmers, good communication and working relationships have been set
up with the agricultural extension, Krishi Vigyan Kendra (Agriculture Science Centres),
Kisan (Farmer) Call Centre etc. to promote participatory methods for interactions with
farmers. Due care is being taken regarding content of the message which must be relevant to
the weather based decision making by the farmer. This involves the identification of weather
& climate sensitive decisions and interactions between the weather forecasters from
meteorological Centres of IMD and the agriculture scientists from Agriculture Universities
and/ or Institutes of Indian Council of Agriculture Research to develop weather based
advisories and technological. Information is disseminated through multi-modes of delivery
including mass and electronic media. It include, All India Radio, Television, Print Media
(local news paper in different vernacular languages), internet (Web Pages) as well as group
and individual relationships through email, telephone etc. The use of electronic media such
as e-mail or the Internet is picking up as the access of these methods to the farming
community is on significant rise. The agrometeorological bulletins always contain dynamic
information hence, repetitive dissemination is being made. This reiterative process also helps
to address large temporal and spatial variability having significant influence of weather &
India 41
climate on agriculture. Critical factors for successful dissemination include relevance of
information to weather & climate sensitive decision making in agriculture, followed by good
outreach.
Based on the climatic variability and climate trends specific information are being
communicated to the farmers of the country through agromet service. Based on this inputs
farmers can adopt coping mechanisms that withstand climate variability through activities
such as the use of drought-resistant or salt-resistant crop varieties, the more efficient use of
water resources and improved pest management. Adjustments may include the introduction
of late-maturing crop varieties, switching cropping sequences, sowing earlier, adjusting
timing of field operations, conserving soil moisture through appropriate tillage methods and
improving irrigation efficiency. Options such as switching crop varieties might not be
expensive while others such as irrigation entail major investments. Changes in cultivation
patterns can include the reduction of fertilizer use, better management of crop production,
improvement of livestock diets and better management of their manure. In areas of recurring
drought, one of the best strategies for alleviating drought is varietal manipulation, through
which drought can be avoided or its effects can be minimized by adopting varieties that are
drought-resistant at different growth stages. If drought occurs during the middle of a
growing season, corrective measures can be adopted; these vary from reducing plant
population to fertilization or weed management. Rainfall can be harvested in either farm
ponds or in village tanks and can be recycled as lifesaving irrigation during a prolonged dry
spell. The remaining water can also be used to provide irrigation for a second crop with a
lower water requirement, such as chickpea.
5.2.7.1.10.1 Strategies for dissemination of agro-meteorological advisories
The Agro-meteorological Advisory Service (AAS) is a mechanism to apply relevant
meteorological information to help the farmer to use it for improving agricultural production.
The main emphasis is to collect and organize climate/weather, soil and crop information, and
to amalgamate them with weather forecast to assist farmers in taking management decisions.
This has to be done immediately after generation of the weather forecast as there may be an
emergent situation asking farmer to take management action in view of forthcoming weather
situation. Critical factors for successful dissemination include relevance of information to
weather & climate sensitive decision making in agriculture, followed by good outreach. The
task is to provide information to help farmers make the best possible use of weather and
climate information (Agarwal, 2002). To ensure delivery of information to the farming
community, a multi-mode dissemination system for agro-meteorological advisories is
essential in which beside the conventional modes (radio, television & print media), the
emerging modes of communication such as mobile phones and internet are also deployed.
More often than not, a wrong presumption is made while disseminating the information, that
the farmers do not possess relevant knowledge and skills. To smarten the service through
continuous up-gradation of service one needs back flow of information on quality and
relevant of information or demand for specific product, hence two way communication has
to be integral part of the dissemination system. As agro-meteorological information is
dynamic in nature and there exists a large temporal and spatial difference leading to a very
complex interaction between weather & agriculture, repetitive dissemination is essential
42 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
(Carlson, 1989). Deployment of communication model should be as per user’s need and
convenience.
The dissemination of agrometeorological information illustrates the vital parts of
communication. The communication include five fundamental factors namely, initiator,
recipient, mode or vehicle, message, and effect. The communication begins with the farmer
who formulates a request to initiator. The initiator must be able to interpret it into a scientific
formulation to perform the data analysis and prepare a message in a format and language that
the farmer can understand. The process includes; a) Identification of the clients or target
groups b) Identification of weather & climate-sensitive decisions that are made during the
course of day-to-day farm management. This step enables a relationship between the
meteorologists, agriculture Scientists, extension personnel and the farmers so that they can
identify or diagnose the gaps in weather information available from the National
Meteorological & Hydrological Services) Choose the right media which is available to the
targeted user groups. The communication channels deployed for the process can be broadly
divided into three groups;
� Mass and electronic media
� Group methods; addressing needs of clients having similar needs, hence benefit
from similar information. Therefore, uniform advisories formulated to address
critical decisions and provide the desired agromet information using the same format
and language. The groups allow farmers to be exposed to other farmers’ successes as
well as realize that they may encounter similar problems or obstacles.
� Individual contacts; time consuming but build good rapport & develop credibility
between role-players. It is a vital part of participatory technology and training &
visit method of extension.
In general, the use of more than one channel gives a greater chance of reaching the client or
user. The individual contacts can be time consuming but also build good rapport and help
maintain credibility between the role-players. It is a vital part of the participatory technology
and the training and visit method of extension. In identifying the clients, it is often useful to
focus on a specific homogenous target group likely to have sufficiently similar needs and,
therefore, can also benefit from similar information. Therefore, the same sort of uniform
recommendations, advisories, or information which are formulated to address these critical
decisions and provide the desired weather information using the same format and language,
etc. The groups allow farmers to be exposed to other farmers’ successes as well as realize
that they may encounter similar problems or obstacles. This encourages them to preserve and
to consider alternatives that may have been used by others. It also helps to share experiences
and opinions and identify gaps in the knowledge or information flow (Joyce, 2003). The
groups can be used in follow-up to both mass media and previous individual contacts. The
use of mass media has the advantage of reaching many more people with each action. The
format used includes electronic media (including radio, television), written bulletin,
newspaper, voice messages, SMS and Internet posting.
AAS has considered different aspects pertinent to the flow and content of information and
accordingly evolved a strategy for dissemination of agro-meteorological information.
Although concerted efforts are being made to set up two way communications, but as of now
India 43
the information flow is largely one-way. Although, Agro-meteorological Field Units
(AMFUs) have limited interaction with the farmers, good communication and working
relationships have been set up with the agricultural extension, Krishi Vigyan Kendra
(Agriculture Science Centres), Kisan (Farmer) Call Centre etc. to promote participatory
methods for interactions with farmers. Due care is being taken regarding content of the
message which must be relevant to the weather based decision making by the farmer. This
involves the identification of weather & climate sensitive decisions and interactions between
the weather forecasters from meteorological Centres of IMD and the agriculture scientists
from Agriculture Universities and/ or Institutes of Indian Council of Agriculture Research to
develop weather based advisories and technological. Information is disseminated through
multi-modes of delivery including mass and electronic media. It include, All India Radio,
Television, Print Media (local news paper in different vernacular languages), internet (Web
Pages) as well as group and individual relationships through email, telephone etc. The use of
electronic media such as e-mail or the Internet is picking up as the access of these methods
to the farming community is on significant rise. The agrometeorological bulletins always
contain dynamic information hence, repetitive dissemination is being made. This reiterative
process also helps to address large temporal and spatial variability having significant
influence of weather & climate on agriculture.
The use of electronic media such as e-mail or the Internet depend on the availability and
access of these methods to the users which is picking up in India particularly through
initiative of Department of Information technology, who is in the process of setting up a very
strong net work of common service centres (CSC). AAS is a scalable system which can be
incrementally developed and extended to cover all the farmers (crops) of India in a cost-
effective manner. It enables the farmer to receive both crop and location-specific expert
advice in a timely manner. With the advent of computers and Internet, emphasis is often
being given to electronic communication systems. However, TV and radio services are still
the best ways of communicating advisories among rural people as these are not only fast
methods, but also large and illiterate masses can be contacted. Broadcasting of advisories in
vernacular language provides an edge on other means of communication. Under Integrated
Agromet Advisory Service (IAAS) scheme at IMD/MoES efforts are being made to
strengthen the outreach of the agromet advisory as per the need of the farmers. Under the
project advisories are primarily disseminated to the farmers by mass mode, outreach at
village level and human face for advisory dissemination. Advisories are being disseminated
to farmers through following the multi-channel system;
i. All India Radio (AIR) and Doordarshan
ii. Private TV and radio channels
iii. Newspaper
iv. Mobile phone / SMS
v. Internet
vi. Virtual Academy / Virtual Universities / NGOs
vii. Kisan Call Centres / ICAR and other related Institutes / Agricultural
Universities / Extension network of State
viii. Krishi Vigyan Kendra (KVKs)
44 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
Table 2. Status of dissemination through Radio, Television and newspapers in different sates
under IAAS is given below;
State Radio Television Newspaper
Andhra
Pradesh
Anantapur All India Radio
(AIR) station
Duration of 10 minutes
Frequency of broadcast:
107.1MHZ
ATP Channel.
Eenadu, Vaartha, Sakshi,
Andhrajyothi, Andhra
prabha and Andhra
bhoomi under different
headings viz.,
Vatavaranam-
Vyavasayasalahalu
Rythulaku vatavarana
suchanalu, salahalu.
Vatavarana samacharam
rythulaku suchanalu.
Assam AIR, Jorhat
AIR, Dibrugarh, 5 min,
The AABs regularly
broadcast in regional
language at 6.15 pm on
every Wednesday and
Friday.
AIR, Nagaon
Doordarshan Kendra,
Dibrugarh.
It utilized the AAB in
formulating agricultural
capsules in their regular
programs on agriculture
from January, 2002 at
6.25-7.30 pm.
Asamiya Khabar
Amar Asom
Twice a week (Wed &
Saturday)
Ajir Paharidoot &
Solangdo (both in
Assamese)
Arunachal
Pradesh
AIR Tezu (6.05 pm-6.30
pm)-AIR Tawang (6.05 pm-
6.30 pm)
AIR Ziro (6.05 pm-6.30
pm)
AIR Pasighat (6.05 pm-6.30
pm)
AIR Itanagar (6.05 pm-6.30
pm)- In Farm & Home
Section at MW : 444.4 mt
675 KHz
Doordarshan Kendra,
Itanagar
Arunachal Times
Chattisgarh AIR Jagdalpur. In Kisan
Wadi programme everyday
except on Sunday (7:21-
8:00) PM
AIR, Raipur
Krishi Darshan
programme on
Thursday 5:40 PM on
Bastar coverage
through transmitter.
Doodarshan Raipur
Highwat Channel, Dainik
Bhaskar Press, Hari
Bhoomi Press,
Dandkarnaya press, Nav
Bharat Press, Nai Duniya
Amrit Sandesh, etc. Dainik
Swadesh (All Raipur)
Navbharat (Bilaspur)
Nayee Duniya - (Bhilai),
Gujarat Rajkot - Kesari, Divya Bhashkar,
Sandesh, Gujarat
Samachar, Phool Chhab,
Akilla etc. Kesari publish
the bulletins regularly and
paper publish them
occasionally.
India 45
Haryana 1. AIR Hisar once in a
week Kisan vani
2. 91.2 FM
3. Community Radio station
CCS Haryana agricultural
University Hisar twice a
week 10minutes.
4. AIR Rohtak once in a
week Kisan Vani
DD Hisar Once in a
week Kissan
programme and some
time telecast in local
news.
Sity Hulchal: Local
cable channel , Extreme
weather events and
weather information
telecast in twice in a
week
Nabhchhor
Punjab Keshri
Dainik Tribune
Dainik Bhaskar
Dainik Jagran
Amar Ujala
Haribhumi
Himachal
Pradesh
AIR SHIMLA Every
Tuesday in 'KRISHI
JAGAT' at 7:32-7:34 pm
and On Next day again in
'Sunehrey Kirney' at 2:02-
2:04pm
DDK SHIMLA : On
Every Tuesday in
KISAN JAGAT
program at 5:00-
5:02pmAs special
report as and when
required.
LOCAL CITY
CABLE:
on Every Tuesday and
Friday in the news after
every 1 hr starting from
evening till next day
evening.
AMAR UJALA, DIVYA
HIMACHAL, APKA
FAISLA, DENIK
JAGARN, PUNJAB
KESARI,JANSATTA and
DENIK BHASKAR.
ENGLISH- The Tribune,
The Indian express and
Hindustan times
Jammu &
Kashmir
AIR-Jammu & Kathua
(broadcast at 6:00 P.M. for
5 Minutes in Khati Vani).
AIR, Poonch - biweekly
AIR Bhaderwah - biweekly
Doordarshan Kendra,
Jammu, (telecast at
6:00P.M. for 5
minutes in Soni Dharti
programme) JK
Channel & Take One
(telecast in Headline
Show at 8:00 P.M. for
3 minutes)
Dainik Jagran (ii)Amar
Ujala (iii) The Himalayan
Daily Taksin
State times
Kashmir Times
Kashmir Images
Dehaat Sandesh
The Latest
Daily Excelsior
Hindustan Times, UNI
Jharkhand AIR, Ranchi broadcast
DAAS on every Tuesday
and Friday at
between 6.30 and 7.00 pm.
DD, Ranchi telecast
DAAS on every
Tuesday and Friday
at
between 6.00 and
7.00 pm.
Prabhat Khabar
Aaj
Ranchi
Express,
Hindustan
Jharkhand Jagran
Dainik Jagran
Kerala Radio mattoli" (Tuesdays
and Fridays)
AIR Kannur (for Kasrgode
and Kannur districts in their
farm program)
Radio Mango
"Malanadu Vision”
and Trikkaripur
Vision and Kasargode
vision, They are also
giving the information
through their
agriculture
programme in twice in
a week.
Mathrubhumi
Malayala manorama
46 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
Karnataka All India Radio, Mysore
All India Radio Gulbarga
AIR Chitradurga,
AIR Karwar
Akashavani, Bhadravathi
Annadata Program of
ETV Kannada - Every
day till the next
bulletin is received
TV Station Gulbarga,
twice in a week
(Tuesday and Friday)
Chandana DD -
Bangalore duration 5
min
Vijaya Karnataka, Kannada
Daily, Bidar
Uttar Karnataka, Kannada
Daily, Bidar and
Local news papers such as
Karanja Express and Bidar-
ki-Awaz
Karanja Express
Bidar-ki-Awaz
Prajavani, Udayavani,
Lokadwani, Janantaranga,
Maharashtra AIR Ahmednagar
AIR, Pune' in Uttam Sheti'
AIRs Ratanagiri
Doordarshan- Marathi
Channel
E TV (Marathi).
Daily Lokmat, Sakal,
Agrowon, Pundhari
Ratnagiri times
Ratanagiri Express
Konkan Raja
Madhya
Pradesh
AIR Bhopal
Between 7.20-8.00 P.M.
Every Tuesday & Friday
Gram Sabha
AIR Chinndwara
Doordarshan Kendra
Bhopal
Between 6.10-6.30
P.M.
Every Friday
Krishi Darshan
E TV
Dainik Bhasker, Dainik
Jagran, Raj Express, Nav
Duniya, Nai Duniya, Fursat
People, Patrika, Nav Bharat
Krashak jagat, Desh
Bandhu
Swatantra Mat, Dainik Mat
Hari Bhumi, Lokmat
Punjab AIR Bathinda
Doordarshan Kendra
Jalandhar
The Tribune, Daily Ajit,
Dainik Jagran, Punjabi
Tribune
Rajasthan AIR Suratgarh
AIR Banswara
AIR Bikaner
Doordarshan Kendra,
Jaipur
E.T.V.Rajasthan
Rajasthan patrika, Dainik
Bhaskar, Seema sandesh,
Pratap Kesri, Lok Sammat,
Prashant jyoti, Seema
kiran,
Sandhya Border,Evening
Fighter
Tamilnadu AIR Ooty
AIR Trichirapalli
AIR, Tirunelveli
Udhagai T.V.(Local
T.V.)
8.30 p.m &10.30.p.m.
Aakash TV
Nam TV
Dhinamalar(Every
Wednesday and Saturday)
Dhinabhoomi (Every
Wednesday and Saturday)
Dinakaran (Tamil) -
Biweekly and regular
Dinamani (Tamil) -
Biweekly and regular
Thinathanthi (Tamil) -
Biweekly and regular
Nagaland AIR Kohima, Everyday at
6:15 PM for 15 minutes
- Nagaland Page,
The Morung Express,
Local dialect newspaper,
'Capi' (Angami dialect)
'Tir yim yim' (Ao dialect)
India 47
Barapani Bulletins are broadcasted
by AIR in “Farm Radio-
Kisan Samachar”
Programme weekly one,
Time 7.00-7.15PM
“KHABOR KHETI
KI” in Doordarshan,
Shillong (Directed and
edited by Shri P.
Chakraborty)
Time: 6.15-6.30PM
Assam Tribune
The shillong Times
U Nongsain Hime
The Mawphor
Nort East Today
Sentinel
Meghalaya Guardian
The Dong Musa
Lembuchera AIR Agartala,
AIR Belonia,
Doordarshan Kendra,
Agartala
Akash Tripura
Local TV Channel
Aajkal , Aajker Fariad
Dainik Sambad, Daily
Desher Katha ,
Syandan, Tripura Times,
Tripura Observer
Portblair AIR Port Blair in Kisan
Wani, Duration:10 minutes,
twice a week (Wednesday
& Saturday) at 6 PM.
DOOR DARSHAN
KENDRA, Port Blair
Programme: Dweep
Darpan
Duration : 15 minutes
Frequency : twice in a
week (Every
Wednesday and
Saturday at 7 PM)
The Daily Telegrams
(English daily)
The Echo of India (English
daily)
Dweep Samachar (Hindi)
Uttar
Pradesh
AIR in kisano ke liye
BIG FM Radio RADIO
MIRCHI FM Rainbow
Krishi Darshan
(Lucknow)
KTV (Kanpur)
SAHARA
SAMAYA(Uttar
Pradesh)
ETV (Uttar Pradesh)
Dainik Jagaran, Amar
Ujala
Aaj Hindustan(Hindi),
The Hindustan Times,
(English), Rashtriya Sahara
The Times Of India
Compact (Amar Ujala)
Uttarakhand AIR Nazibabad (Daily,
combined presentation of
UP & Uttarakhand)
AIR Rampur AIR Bareilly
Kishan Vani”
Doordarshan
Dehradun, occasional
ETV- Uttar Pradesh /
Uttarakhand TV
Channel under the title
”Mausam Evam
Krishi” for five
minutes from 6.50 to
6.55 AM on every
Thursday under
“Annadata Program” at
6.30 AM
Amar Ujala
Dainik Sahara
Dainik Jagran
Uttar Ujala
West Bengal AIR Siliguri
Doordarshan,
Jalpaiguri
3. E-TV (In
ANNADATA at
everyday 6:30am)
Etv Bangla Annadata
Program (telecasted
once a week)
DD, Kolkata,
Bartaman Patrika
(Wednesday)
Uttar Banga Sangbad
(Wednesday)
Ganashakti (Thursday)
Pratidin (Thursday),
Kalantar (Wed)
48 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
5.2.7.1.10.2 Dissemination of Agromet Advisory Services through Internet
Disseminating agrometeorological information is part of a process that begins with scientific
knowledge and understanding and ends with the evaluation of the information. The Internet
is one of the new and cost-effective technologies that can provide this information in an
accurate and timely manner. Additionally, the Internet can also be effectively used to offer
training modules to agrometeorologists to help them improve the quality of the
agrometeorological products, which they produce. Beside the website of India
Meteorological department and Agrimet Division, the agromet bulletins are loaded on a
number of websites which are maintained by collaborating agencies. The addresses of such
web sites are as follow in table 3:
Table 3. Addresses of website of AMFUs
AMFU station Website address
Basar, Arunachal Pradesh https://sites.google.com/site/iaasbasar/
Rahuri, Maharashtra http://mpkv.mah.nic.in
Ambikapur, Chhatisgarh http://igau.edu.in
Namakkal, Tamil Nadu www.tanuvas.ac.in
Jodhpur, Rajasthan www.cazri.res.in
Delhi www.iari.res.in
Solan, H.P. www.yspuniversity.ac.in
Trissur, Kerala www.Kau.edu.in; www.kauagmet.org
Jorhat, Assam http://192.168.99.1/dee/aaservices.php
http://www.aau.ac.in/dee/aaservices.php
Raipur, Chattiagarh http://igau.edu.in.
Junagarh, Gujarat www.jau.in
Jabalpur, M.P. www.jnkvv.nic.in.
Dantiwada, Gujarat www.sdau.edu.in
Jorhat, Assam http://192.168.99.1/dee/aaservices.php,
www.aau.ac.in/dee/aaservices.php
Hyderabad, A.P. www.agromet.ap.nic.in
Palampur, H.P. www.hillagric.ernet.in/info/kisano_ke_liye_soochna/index.htm
Raichur, Karnataka www.uasraichur.edu.in
Srinagar, J & K. www.skuastkashmir.ac.in
Junagarh, Gujarat www.jau.in
Hissar, Haryana www.hau.ernet.in/coa/agromet.htm
www.hau.ernet.in/coa/agrometpub.htm
Jagdalpur, Chhatisgarh www.igau.edu.in
Kanniwadi, Tamil Nadu www.oddanchatrammarket.com
Modipuram, U.P. http://www.svbpmeerut.ac.in
Raichur, Karnataka www.uasraichur.edu.in/info/infofile
Imphal, Manipur www.mosdac.gov.in,www.icar.org.in
Barapani, Meghalaya www.indiaweatherwatch.org,www.meghalaya.nic.in
www.icarneh.ernet.in,www.neigrihms.gov.in
Darisai, Jharkhand www.baujharkhand.org,www.atmachaibasa.org
www.atmaseraikella.org,www.sameti.org
Chhindwara, M.P. www.jnkvv.nic.in
Karimganj, Assam www.aau.ac.in,www.karimganj.gov.in
CRIDA, ICAR www.cropweatheroutlook.org (For 25 Units)
Pune, Maharashtra www.mahaagri.gov.in
India 49
5.2.7.1.10.3 Dissemination of Agromet Advisory Services through Mobile Phone
In addition to different multi-channel dissemination system, agromet advisories under the
project Integrated Agromet Advisory Service (IAAS) are being disseminated to the farming
community in India through SMS and IVR (Interactive Voice Response Technology). Under
the SMS system an information platform has been created which allows the existing
Agromet Field Units (AMFUs) located at State Agriculture Universities (SAUs), institutes of
Indian Council of Agriculture Research (ICAR), Indian Institute of Technology (IITs) etc. to
provide the information in a convenient and timely manner. The advisories are crop and
location specific and delivered within actionable time to the farmers. Under IVR system the
information from AMFUs for each state are collected and then stored, and converted into
voice where the farmer would be calling and receiving the desired information.
A number of private firms namely Reuter Market Light, Handygo, Vritti Solution, IFFCO
Kisan Sanchar Limited (IKSL) and NOKIA Life Tools is disseminating the agromet
advisories generated under IAAS through SMS and Interactive Voice. At present 16 states
namely Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, West
Bengal, Gujarat, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamilnadu, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra and
Himachal Pradesh have been covered under this service. Advisory are also disseminated
through SMS to the farming community of Maharashtra in collaboration with the State
Department of Agriculture, Government of Maharashtra.
Public Private Partnership for agromet advisory dissemination:
In the era of emerging IT arena in India many private companies have joined hands with
IMD to deliver weather based agricultural information to the farmers using multiple modes
of information communication. As some of the farmers are willing to pay for the
information, IMD has tied up with different public and private organizations, which are
already working in dissemination of agricultural information to the rural village. The
dissemination technology employed under this are mainly based on Information Technology
(IT) and includes Internet based communication systems and Mobile phone based
communication system. The most advantageous feature of mobile phone based systems is
that farmers can communicate with the web-based systems, while in the field and thus
request for advice concerning a newly discovered problem. The IMD has so far partnered
with Reuter Market Light (RML), Handygo, Maharashtra State Agriculture Department
(Government of Maharashtra), Vritti Solutions, IFFCO Kisan Sanchar Ltd. (IKSL), NOKIA
Life Tools and TATA Consultancy Services (TCS).
IMD and Reuter Market Light (RML) are working together to disseminate weather and
Agrimet crop/livestock advisory developed by Agromet Field Units (AMFUs) located at
State Agriculture Universities (SAUs), IITs, Indian Council of Agriculture Research (ICAR)
etc. Reuter Market Light delivery platform is in fig. 19. Such weather based advisory
bulletins help farmers to decide cultural management actions and also manage the farm
inputs which all are highly weather sensitive. At present the advisories are being
disseminated to thirteen states. RML already created an information platform which allows
the AMFUs to provide the information in a convenient and timely manner. The information
is basically crop and region specific and delivered within actionable time to the farmers. The
project’s experience would be leveraged upon to create a scalable model which can expand
50 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
across India and utilize the information developed for all the 640 districts of the country. The
information cover realized weather information, 5 day forecasts, weather forecast based crop
& live-stock advisories and special alerts or warnings for severe weather conditions. This
information are being provided to farmers on their mobile phones in the form of SMS as part
of the RML service, stating IMD as the source. The information enables them to take
appropriate actions resulting in tangible benefits.
Fig. 19. Reuter Market Light (RML) delivery platform
Handygo is a Telecom Value Added Services company based at New Delhi and maintains a
very healthy relation with leading mobile operators in the industry. Handygo delivery setup
is in fig. 20. The company is disseminating agromet advisories through IVR (Interactive
Voice Response) system to five states (Punjab, Haryana, Maharashtra, Gujarat and West
Bengal) in the country. Its rural IVR service on 55678 by is designed to serve Farmers
through providing information on weather, crops, livestock & fisheries, Govt. & Bank
offerings for rural, Health, Family Planning, Mandi Rates etc. It fetch information from IMD
for each state and store it in our database. Thereafter, we would be converting these data into
voice and then transferring the information into the Network where the farmer would be
calling and receiving the desired information. Handygo plans to launch this rural service in
India 51
23 different states in the country and have the Weather Based Agro Advisory as a part of its
IVR solution for the farmers. The delivery of the content is in Regional Languages. A
feedback mechanism in which farmers can let us know that how relevant the information
provided by IMD has also been set up.
Fig. 20 Handygo delivery platform
Vritti Solutions Limited is a company working for enabling IT in the rural parts of India and
having background of working for 16 years in the software for variety of businesses
primarily to cater agriculture and rural population. They have developed interactive software
through which the advisories are being sent to the farmers in the Maharashtra State.
IFFCO Kisan Sanchar Limited (IKSL) is providing Value added services to the farmers
through the mobile channel. Five Voice messages per day of importance to farmers are sent
free of cost to the farmers which cover area of their immediate interest. The uniqueness of
the messages is that they are in local languages and conveyed by local people. Location
specific orientation is provided by channelizing local resources to share information related
to local needs. IFFCO has started to disseminate agromet advisory through five voice
messages per day to the farmers in free of cost which cover area of their immediate interest.
Initially in 16 states they have started this project namely Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab,
Haryana, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, West Bengal, Gujarat, Karnataka, Kerala,
Tamilnadu, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra and Himachal Pradesh. The broad areas
presently covered are recommendation for farmers on best agricultural practices, nutrient
52 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
related issues, animal husbandry, and information on nearest mandies, input on weather &
climate and appropriate rural technologies.
Nokia is a world leader in mobile communications, driving the growth and sustainability of
the broader mobility industry. Nokia connects people to each other and the information that
matters to them with easy-to-use and innovative products like mobile phones, devices and
solutions for learning, livelihood, imaging, games, media and businesses. Delivery Platform
of NOKIA Life Tools is shown in fig. 21.
Nokia Life Tools is delivering information to the farmers who have subscribed to the Ovi
Life Tools Service from Nokia. This information is delivered to the farmers via SMS service
on their mobile phones. Nokia is giving this service in the States Maharashtra, Andhra
Pradesh, Karnataka, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Madhya Pradesh, Kerala,
Rajasthan and Punjab.
Nokia Life Tools is taking this information from the various AMFUs affiliated to IMD
using its technology infrastructure. Also IMD & Nokia is doing Joint awareness Programme
(for eg. Farmer Meets) to spread more information about the service to the target audience.
Tips and Advices on Specific Crops
Market Prices
Weather Updates & Forecasts
Agriculture News
Fig. 21 Relevant and Personalized Information Delivery through Nokia Life Tools
India 53
State Department of Agriculture, Government of Maharashtra is sending SMS to the farmers
in the villages of the state through the website www.Mahaagri.gov.in. In addition the other
areas of service, agromet advisories are also being sent through the sites.
Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) has already signed a MoU with IMD. It proposes to
provide the personalized agro advisory generated under IAAS in local language on the
handset of the farmers using mKRISHI platform on the compatible handsets of the farmers.
The mKRISHI platform would be in operative mode shortly. It solves the problem of
dissemination and delivery of dynamic content available on web through mobile application
and will have a personalization filter which enable to disseminate the information relevant to
the farmer. It allows to easily staying informed by retrieving the latest content from the
relevant sites interested in while ensuring privacy as one is not required to subscribe
newsletter or join any sites.
Status of SMS service through different dissemination agencies is given in Table 4.
Name of the Service
Provider
States under their jurisdiction Total number
of SMS
Reuter Market Light Punjab, Haryana, Maharashtra, Gujarat and
West Bengal 317788
Handygo Punjab, Haryana, Maharashtra, Gujarat and
West Bengal 240000
Vritti Solutions Maharashtra 3930
IFFCO Kisan Sanchar Ltd. Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana,
Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, West
Bengal, Gujarat, Karnataka, Kerala,
Tamilnadu, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar,
Maharashtra and Himachal Pradesh
1081002
NOKIA Life Tools Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka,
Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu,
Madhya Pradesh, Kerala, Rajasthan and
Punjab.
900000
State Department of
Agriculture, Government
of Maharashtra
Maharashtra 200000
Total 2742720
5.2.7.1.10.4 New Proposals on dissemination of Agromet Advisories
a. Common Service Centre (CSC)
CSCs constitute one of the three pillars of the National e-Governance Plan for enabling
anytime anywhere delivery of government services. The collaborative scheme with IMD will
be implemented through a Public Private partnership. CSC will be having following
objectives
• Providing Meteorological Information (observation, forecast and products such as
agromet advisories) to the rural farmers at their locality i.e., villages, based on
districts of the country
54 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
• Meteorological information be linked with agri-productivity measures as like
farming inputs/ precautions/ package of practices –information & guidance
• Supplementing necessary information on part of meteorology into the complete
solution for small farmers through integrated framework of the related
stakeholders like KVK, ICAR, University-Colleges etc.
• Weather warnings to ensure minimizing disaster losses
• Establishing a two way communication linkage through CSCs so that agri-related
queries may attended and replied.
• A mechanism may also be developed to obtain regular feedback based on the skill
of forecast, quality & relevance of advisories, problem solving through interactive
mode, answering questions of common interest through bulletins, accessibility to
information/ experts via ICT.
• CSCs may communicate local level observation (Meteorological, Crop, Soil,
Pest/Disease, Sowing, Harvesting & Other prevailing intercultural operations) to
knowledge pool for generating the relevant and specific advisories.
• Training may also be planned for the kiosk operators as well as farmers on use of
agromet advisories in farm management through AMFUs with active support from
IMD/ICAR.
b. ITC E- Choupal
It has been decided to disseminate the Agro Met advisories on e-Choupal platform. ITC has
about 6500 e-Choupals covering approximately 40,000 villages providing the information on
weather, agronomic practice, and market information to the farmers on daily basis, free of
cost. This provides opportunity to benefit a large number of farmers who can plan the
farming operations to maximize benefit in case of favorable weather conditions or take
appropriate actions for mitigation of risk due to adverse weather. The advisories will also be
disseminated through mobiles to farmers. ITC has a huge database of farmers which can be
leveraged to advise any sudden climate variability apart from normal weather advisory. IMD
will provide the weather information on-line by emails to ITC branches in respective states
to facilitate almost real time up-dating and dissemination on e-Choupal website. The e-
choupal links knowledge and technology transfer for creation of economic and social
capacity and provide an end to end solution with the farmer having the freedom of choice
based on informed decision making notwithstanding the heterogeneity and weak
infrastructure.
Under the e-Choupal set up, a Sanchalak (lead/Progressive farmer) is appointed for about 3 –
5 villages. At the Sanchalak’s house an ITC kiosk with Internet access has been installed.
The farmer is trained to operate this infrastructure and disseminate information on market
prices, weather and agricultural best practices. Group of 3 – 5 villages has been made to
ensure that the kiosk is within walking distance for the farmers. The active participation of
farmers in this rural initiative has created a sense of ownership in the project among the
farmers. For every 35- 40 e-Choupal, ITC has created a hub which is located such that the
farmer need not travel more than 30 Kms to transact. The Hub is being managed by a
India 55
“Sanyojak” whose role is to manage operations including labor, logistics, Cash distribution
etc. Through the kiosk the farmers access ready information in their local language on the
weather & market prices, disseminate knowledge on scientific farm practices & risk
management, usage of farm inputs. Real-time information and customized knowledge
provided by 'e-Choupal' enhances the ability of farmers to take decisions and align their farm
output with market demand and secure quality & productivity.
c. National Bank for Agriculture and Rural development (NABARD)
NABARD is set up as an apex Development Bank with a mandate for facilitating credit flow
for promotion and development of agriculture, small-scale industries, cottage and village
industries, handicrafts and other rural crafts. It also has the mandate to support all other
allied economic activities in rural areas, promote integrated and sustainable rural
development and secure prosperity of rural areas. Joint collaborative project with IMD aims
at dissemination of:
• Need-based agro-meteorological advisory services to the farmers at the right time
based on local context and culture.
• To bring together experts and grassroots level communities in a two-way
communication with the objective of making knowledge accessible to village of
the country.
• Dissemination of Agro-Advisory and feedback from farmers through the
involvement of Farmers’ clubs, Joint Liability Groups, Village watershed
Committees in areas where Watershed projects are being implemented & self help
groups.
• R&D in Operational Agro-meteorology.
d. MS Swaminathan Research Foundation
M S Swaminathan Research Foundation is a non-profit research organization and was
established in 1988. M S Swaminathan Research Foundation (MSSRF) has all along been
developing and following a pro-nature, pro-poor, pro-women and pro-sustainable on-farm
and non-farm livelihoods through appropriate eco-technology and knowledge empowerment.
Weather related needs for agriculture and allied activities to IMD to provide the location
specific, agro-meteorological advisory services to the farming and fishing communities
through VRCs and VKCs. The advisories will be disseminated through different
communication tools. The proposed project sites of this project are in Tamilnadu are
Thiruvaiyaru VRC (Thanjavur District), Annavasal (Pudukkottai District), Nagapattinam
(Nagapattinam District), Chidambaram (Cuddalore District) and Sempatti VRC (Dindigul
District).The proposed project sites in Union Territory of Puducherry are Puducherry and
Karikkal.The proposed project sites in Maharashtra are Waifad VRC (Wardha District),
Yavatmal (Yavatmal District), Jasapur VRC (Amaravati District) and Karda VRC (Washim
District) in Vidarbha region. The proposed project site in Orissa is Jeypore VRC (Koraput
District).
56 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
Beside above ongoing and proposed initiatives, the linkage of agrometeorological service is
also being established with some other ICT companies, operating in rendering Agriculture
Services, like aAqua, Kissan Kerala, ITC e-Choupal, India Development Gateway,
agropedia, mahindra Kisan Mitra, iKisan, Agmarknet and IBM for enhancing the access of
information to the farmers. Besides above efforts, there is a plan to disseminate this service
through Narrowcasting Centre of Prasar Bharati, FM channel of AIR and Community Radio
Stations which are emerging. The ultimate aim is to disseminate advisories to farmers on real
time basis to save farm inputs and increase crop yield in a more profitable manner.
5.2.8. Farmers Awareness on AAS through Roving Seminars
Efforts made by Ministry of Earth Sciences, India Meteorological Department (IMD), Indian
Council of Agriculture Research (ICAR), State Agricultural Universities (SAUs),
Union/State Departments of Agriculture and other collaborative agencies through
Agrometeorological Advisory Service (AAS) have demonstrated the role of weather forecast
in increasing overall preparedness of farmers, leading to substantially better outcomes
overall. However, more efforts are needed to assist farmers to further develop their adaptive
capacity with improved planning and better management decisions. Hence, more effective
approaches to delivery of climate and weather information to farmers through participatory,
cross-disciplinary approach is being carried out through enhancing awareness of information
user groups. It is done through organizing farmer’s awareness programs, also termed as
roving seminar that brings together research and development institutions, relevant
disciplines, and farmers as equal partners to reap the benefits from weather and climate
knowledge. Given the current concerns with climate change and it’s impacts on crop
productivity, there is an urgent need to sensitize the farmers about the increased weather
variability, in their regions, and different adaptation strategies that can be considered to cope
with the extreme weather situations. Examples of more general decisions that can be aided
by targeted weather information include strategic and tactical crop management options,
agricultural commodity marketing etc.
Such programs help increase the interaction between the local farming communities and the
Meteorological Centres (MCs), AgroMeteorological Field Units (AMFUs) and Krishi
Vigyan Kendra (KVK). Considering above, a large number of such seminars are organized
in different agro-climates of the country to sensitize farmers about the weather and climate
information and it’s applications in operational farm management. These are jointly
organized by India Meteorological Department (Ministry of Earth Sciences), Indian Council
of Agriculture Research and State Agricultural Universities, Local NGOs and other stake
holders.
Typically the Roving Seminars are of one-day duration and bring together farmers from a
group of villages to a centralized location in any given region. The programme for the
Seminars consists of two parts. The part-I deals with Weather and Climate of the Farming
Region, Climate Change and Farming Risks, and part-II deal with Farmer Perception of
Weather and Climate Information Provision and Feedback. The Roving Seminars are
organized jointly by AMFUs and KVKs under aegis of IMD, ICAR, and SAUs. Primary
emphasis here is placed on free and frank exchange of ideas and information. The Seminar
has been designed in such a way as to engage all the participants in discussions and obtain
India 57
full information from the farmers on their needs for weather and climate information and the
ways and means to improve future communication of weather and climate information to
them to facilitate effective operational decision making.
In order to improve the linkage with the AAS system and develop a local (Village) level rain
measuring network, 5 rain gauge made of plastic are distributed to the selected group of
progressive farmers during the meeting who are trained to record and report the rainfall
observation to the concerned AMFUs who in turn communicate the data to IMD. So far such
seminars have been organized at So far such seminars have been organized at 76 AMFUs
namely Aduthurai, Allahabad, Ambikapur, Anand, Anakapalli, Anantpur, Arnej, Bikaner,
Bangalore, Bhatinda, Banswara, Basar, Bharatpur, Bhawanipatna, Bhubaneshwar,
Brahmavar, Chennai, Coimbatore, Chintapalli, Darisai, Dapoli, Diphu, Dumka, Faizabad,
Hiriyur, Hyderabad, Hisar, Igatpuri, Jabalpur, Jagdalpur, Jagtiyal, Jammu, Jaipur, Jhabua,
Jharnapani, Jodhpur, Jorhat, Kakdweep, Kalyani, Kanniwadi, Kharagpur, Kolhapur,
Kovilpatti, Kolasib, Lam, Leh, Lembucherra, Ludhiana, Majihan, Maktampur, Manipur,
Mulde, Nammakal, New Delhi, Naganhalli, Palampur, Parbhani, Pechiparai, Portblair, Pune,
Pusa, Rajouri, Roorkee, Ranital, Ranchi, Ranichauri, Solan, Shillongani, Sonitpur, Srinagar,
Sehore, Seobagh, Thrissur, Udaipur, Tirupathi and Varanasi.
5.2.9. Training in Agrometeorology
As per the demand of the AMFU personnel, Agrimet Division, IMD, Pune organized training for
AMFU Scientists entitled “Agrometeorology towards better advisories for serving end users
requirement” during the year. 22 AMFU Scientists participated in the course. There is
proposal to conduct one more batch of Training for Scientists under AMFU during January
2011. A number of preparatory workshops to Technical Officers on use of crop simulation
model to develop application tools for decision making in agro-advisory were organized at
different SAUs. The objective of this programme is to incorporate dynamic crop model in
farm decision-making for developing information on real-time weather dependent agro-
meteorological advisories issued from AMFUs disseminated to farmers and also evaluation
of Decision Support System for Agro technology Transfer (DSSAT) consisting of crop
models, data base management system and strategy evaluation programme for major crops in
agro-climatic zones. 4-days training to Technical Officers from 11 AMFUs (BAU, Ranchi,
APAU, Hyderabad, KAU, Thrissur, AAU, Jorhat, OUAT, Bhubaneswar, NDUAT, Faizabad,
BCKV, Kalyani, Bijapur, Coimbatore, Anand, Dapoli).
Two days training cum discussion programme to AMFU Officers of was organised
Chandigarh, Pune, Kolkata & Ahmedabad with representatives of two companies Reuter
Market Light (RML) and Handygo on dissemination of advisories through SMS and IVR
system. Nodal Officers of AMFU along with Technical Officers and officers/staff members
of State Meteorological Centres (SMCs)have attended training cum learning programme.
Training course on ‘Agrometeorology towards better advisories for serving end users
requirement’ for AMFU scientists was conducted from 15.02.11 to 07.03.11 at CTI, Pashan
by the Agrimet Division. 24 trainees from different Agrometeorological Field units
(AMFUs) participated in the course and Agromet Core course for university professors,
readers, scientists from agricultural/agrometeorological research organizations / ICAR
58 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
Institutions / universities was conducted from 17th August to 6th September 2011. Also 3
weeks Agromet observers’ course with 7 candidates was conducted w.e.f. 13.6.2011.
5.2.10. Extension and out reach and collection of feedback from farming
community
Regular feedback from farmers, State Agricultural Departments and Agricultural
Universities / ICAR and other related Institutes is being collected and processed for further
improvement of services. Feedback information are also been collected from Regional and
Narrowcasting stations of DD, AIR, and FM channels, Krishi Vigyan Kendras, ATMA,
CSCs, NGOs, VRCs and VKCs. Officers of the AAS units participated in Kisan Melas to
understand the problems of large groups of farmers. For improvement of the agro-advisory
bulletins, regular discussion were held among IMD and Agricultural officers at the State
AAS unit level and also with scientists in Agricultural Universities / ICAR and other related
Institutes.
Officers/Staff members of Agrimet Division, IMD,Pune participated in Kisan Mela
organized at different AMFUs to interact with the farming community and to collect their
feedback about the AAS services. It served as platform to showcase the activities of Agrimet
Division, AMFUs and Dissemination Centres at District levels an opportunity to create
awareness to farmers, directly interact with farmers from different States and obtained their
suggestions to improve the agromet advisory services.
Following linkages were established at district level to disseminate the agro advisories as
well as receive the feedback information on crop, soil, pests and diseases etc
� 130 AMFU (one in ~ 5 Districts)
� 567 KVKs in 605 Districts
• Impart skill through oriented programs to rural masses
• Organize vocational trainings, demonstrate latest technologies and its refinement
in farmers’ field conditions
• Organize demonstrations to generate awareness & feedback
� ATMA
� District Agriculture/Horticulture Offices
� CSC (Village Level)
� Local Media
5.2.11. Agromet Brochure
Agricultural Meteorology Division, India Meteorological Department (IMD) in collaboration
with State Agricultural Universities, Indian Council of Agricultural Research, India Institute
of Technology published Agromet Brochure highlighting the activities of the Agrimet
Division particularly the different areas of Integrated Agromet Advisory Services launched
by IMD/Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) for the benefit of the Indian farmers. For general
awareness and easier access to the services of IMD, the brochures in different languages
India 59
namely Assamese, Bengali, English, Gujarati, Hindi, Kannada, Malyalam, Manipuri,
Marathi, Nepali, Oriya, Punjabi, Tamil, Telegu is being circulated to the concerned
organizations/institutes like Ministry of Agriculture (Central & State), Indian Council of
Agricultural Research (ICAR), State Agricultural Universities, Regional Research Institutes,
Krishi Vigyan Kendras, Department of Space, NGOs and all other organization directly and
indirectly related to the agricultural services in the country.
5.2.12. Impact of agrometeorological advisory services on climate risk
management
Impact assessment of weather forecast based agro-advisory service was carried out by
National Centre for Medium range Weather forecasting (NCMRWF) at 15 representative
AAS units representing different agro-climatic zones. The report assesses the impact of
weather based agro-advisories on cereals, millets, pulses, oilseeds, fruits, vegetables and
cash crops selected for the study. The study period was spread over three years comprising
of 3 Kharif and 3 Rabi seasons. National Centre for Agriculture Economics and Policy
Research (NCAP), who was engaged as consultant for the project, helped to formulate the
study plan, including devising sampling method, preparation of questionnaire, monitoring its
implementation and data analysis.
In general it is difficult to assess the economic benefit of any advisory service given and also
there does not exists any general simulation model for the evaluation of the economic
benefits of meteorological assistance to agriculture, however, evident effective benefit,
probable effective benefit, and theoretically maximum possible benefit can always be
defined. Weather information content which is part of the advisory bulletin contain
information on what is going to happen (precipitation, temperature, cloud, wind) and when is
it going to happen at the given area of interest to the farmer. Weather information is
translated into farm level action oriented advice by the agricultural scientists such as time
and method of sowing, time and amount of irrigation, time and method of fertilizer/pesticide
application etc. The information is disseminated through mass media dissemination agencies
including internet, Radio / TV and Phone/Fax. When user-focused weather based advisories
are made available and used by farmers in the agriculture sector, losses resulting from
adverse weather and climatic conditions are minimized, thereby improving the yield and
quality of agricultural products. Also, the favorable weather is harnessed to its potential. The
requirements that must be met if farmers are to manage risks weather and climate include,
access to early warning and forecast conditions, awareness that weather and climate
variability will impact on farm operations, and ability to apply the agro-meteorological
information in decision making. Farmers may have more than one option for managing the
risks they face, and most use a combination of strategies and tools. Some strategies deal with
only one kind of risk, while others address multiple risks. This complicated the task of
assessing the economic value of agro-meteorological information. Agriculture impacts
include changes experienced by farmers that have meaning or value positive (a benefit
effect) or negative (an undesired effect) helping them to decide selection of crop/variety,
sowing/harvesting time, irrigation management, fertilizer management, pest/disease
management and other intercultural operations. This formed the backbone of the economic
impact study carried out by NCMRWF in collaboration with the AAS units.
60 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
The study was conducted with following prime objectives;
� Adoption of the forecast by the user community and its realization. It further helps to
understand the linkages between information, users and impacts
� To assess the effectiveness and potential benefits of Agro-Advisory services by
taking into account the AAS contact and non-contact farmers.
� To work out weather based farming strategies based on the economic impact of
Agromet Advisory Services.
� To account and assess the needs of the farming community for increasing the farm
produce.
� To assess the economic impact of the AAS services in various crops under different
ago climatic conditions.
The concept of the study is based on the assessment of ability of forecast based advisory to
influence farmers’ decisions on various farm management operations, find out Economic
and other benefits due to use of advisories in farm management decisions, and assess
impacts of advisories on overall yield of the crop.
Impact Assessment Analysis Framework:
A number of approaches and methods have been used in the literature to assess the value and
impact of weather forecast. Important among these are assessment of the value of weather
forecast, economic benefits to farmers or individual farms, and economic and social benefits
for a sector or country as a whole. The cost-loss analysis, expected utility approach,
stochastic programming approach, simulation model, economic surplus, and computable
general equilibrium model are most frequently used methods. The selection of analytical
method is determined by objective of the study, availability of required data and
computational skills. Since main objective of the study is to assess the adequacy, use and
impact of the medium range weather forecasts, an analytical method focusing more on farm
level impact was considered to be most appropriate. In the present study, the selection of
method is also influenced by the fact that policy makers can easily understand the results and
the method can be applied with moderate analytical skill. Therefore, NCAP proposed use of
simple farm-level indicators for the impact assessment. The impact assessment framework
proposed included estimation of accuracy of the forecast, adequacy and reliability of the
forecast from farmers’ perspective, use of the forecast, and farm-level impacts.
Table 5a. describes the framework to be followed for assessing the usefulness of weather
forecast through the survey and Table 5b gives the economic impact indicators to be
considered
Table 5 a. Use of Weather Forecast
Impact area Indicator
Perception of stakeholders Reliability, dissemination, adequacy,
value addition
Awareness about AAS Farmers knowing AAS (%)
Usefulness-farmers’ perception Farmers considering it useful (%)
Use of information Farmers using weather forecasts (%)
India 61
Table 5b: Economic Impact Indicators
Parameters Indicators
Yield Difference in yield of AAS and non-AAS farmers
Cost • Difference between total paid out cost (per acre) of
AAS and non-AAS contact farmers
• Changes in cost per unit of output
Profitability • Difference in return over paid out cost (Rs/acre) of
AAS and non-AAS contact farmers
Utility Increase in utilization by farmer for maneuvering cultural
operations
Sample selection
Considering the importance of the sampling in the study, care was taken to identify the
sample which is true representative of the class. Thus the farmers were selected based on
their size of holding (small, medium, large), educational background, size of the family,
types of crops grown. Section 4 gives the demographic details of the samples chosen by each
unit. As it was difficult to collate information from a very large or not-interested farmers the
sampling was done based on the following criterion.
� 15 AAS units out of a total 127 were chosen based on the existence of an effective
weather based agro-advisory service of NCMRWF at the unit for quite some time.
� From each unit, a representative district where AAS Unit was operating was selected
for conducting the farm survey. The selection of the district was based on its
similarity with the agro climatic zone in terms of cropping pattern, irrigated area,
rainfall and soil type.
� A list of villages, from the selected district, having AAS contact farmers was
prepared and two villages were chosen randomly from among these.
� In each selected villages, a list of all the AAS contact farmers was prepared by
category of their size of holding (small, medium, large), educational background,
family size, type of crops grown etc. A total of 20 farmers were then selected using
random sampling technique.
� Thus a sample size of 40 AAS contact farmers was selected from the 2 villages.
Similarly, two villages having no AAS contact farmer (from the same district) were chosen.
From the two selected villages, a list of all the farmers (non- AAS contact farmers) was
prepared based on the criteria described above. 20 farmers were then selected by random
sampling from each village. Thus, four villages comprising of 2 villages of AAS contact
farmers and 2 villages of non-AAS contact farmers were selected at each of the 15 units
chosen for the study. 20 AAS and 20 non-AAS contact farmers were selected from each
village, thus making a sample of 80 farmers (40 AAS and 40 non-AAS).
In order to keep the data of manageable size, information on important crops (at least one
each for Kharif and Rabi, but not more than four crops was selected for taking detailed
information on use and impact of weather forecasts. To ensure reliability of the results, data
62 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
has been collected for 3 Rabi and 3 Kharif seasons viz., Kharif 2004, 2005 and 2006 and for
Rabi 2003-04, Rabi 2004-05 and Rabi 2005-06. As most of the units could not collect the
data for Rabi 2003-04, hence the project was extended by 6 months to accommodate the
Rabi season of 2006-07.
Survey & the questionnaire
The sampling method was designed to work directly with the users of forecast and advisory
information, to be able to more meaningfully assess credible cost/loss estimates. The
important issue was to develop effective and meaningful base for assessing impacts of cost-
cutting yield and enhancing decisions. Cost-cutting measures can take a variety of forms,
some of which include saving in irrigation, reducing the loss of fertilizer, reducing the
pesticide applications. To obtain quantitative information, working relationships between
AMFUs and user farmers were set up through periodic visits. Through such visits input from
the farmers were obtained about use and application of the advisory bulletins through pre-
devised questionnaire. Thus the sample survey is not independently conducted by the
agency which provided the questionnaire and therefore a certain amount of bias in
inevitable. This has been highlighted in Section 9 as one of the limitations that has been
encountered during the study.
The AAS units gave special attention to date of sowing, planting, harvesting, spraying,
irrigation and tillage operation. Due attention was paid to collecting information on the
adoption of advisory by the farmers during such operations and the benefit/loss accrued by
the farmers by following/not-following advisories related to such crucial operations.
Based on the above methodology and impact assessment framework, the survey is done
using three aspects
i. Socio- Economic Status: The socio -economic status of the farmers was
surveyed using the queries related to; Family structure, Literacy among farmers,
Size of land holding, Cropping pattern, Traditional Methods used, Mode of
irrigation, Awareness of AAS, Mode of receipt of AAS, Weather parameters
required, Satisfaction from service (reliability, timely availability, expected
benefits, frequency), and Willingness to pay.
ii. Quantity analysis of inputs used
� Quantity of Seed, Fertilizer, Pesticide
� Number of Labour (Human, machine)
� Number of Irrigations
iii. Price analysis of inputs used
� Price of Seed, Fertilizer, Pesticide
� Cost of labour (Human, machine)
� Cost of Irrigation
� Cost of product/byproduct
� Any other associated cost
India 63
Crops selected by the units
The major crops chosen for the study are as under
• Food grains: Wheat, Rice, Millets, Maize, Red Gram and Chickpea
• Oilseeds: Mustard;
• Cash crops: Cumin, Jute, Cotton and Tobacco
• Fruit crops: Apricot, Peach and Banana
• Vegetables: Tomato and Spinach.
The crops wise results of the study which spread over three years (comprising of 3 Kharif
and 3 Rabi seasons) for cereals, millets, pulses, oilseeds, fruits, vegetables and cash crops are
presented in table 6.
Table 6: Crop specific and station specific impact of AAS on cost of cultivation, gross & net
returns, and yield.
Crop Station Impact of AAS
on cost of
cultivation
(Rs/acre)
Impact of AAS
on gross returns
(Rs/acre)
Impact of
AAS on net
returns
(Rs/acre)
Impact of AAS
on yield
(Q/acre)
C
E
R
E
A
L
S
Paddy
Raipur; Thrissur; Kalyani; Ludhiana;
Bhubaneshwar;
Hyderabad; Pantnagar
Decrease by
5-12%
Increase by
8-20%
Increase by
16-20%
Increase by
8-20%
Wheat Raipur; Ludhiana; Jaipur; Pune;
Pantnagar
Decrease by
1-2%
Increase by
8-13%
Increase by
12-28%
Increase by
7-30%
Millets Pearlmillet Jodhpur, Jaipur,
Pune
Increase by
1-5%
Increase by
4-14%
Increase by
10-28%
Increase by
4-25%
V
E
G
E
T
A
B
L
E
S
Tomato BhubaneshwarBang
alore Coimbatore
Hyderabad Solan
Decrease by
2-5%
Increase by
7-20%
Increase by
12-30%
Increase by
13-23%
Palak Hyderabad Decrease by
9.4%
Increase by
24.6%
Increase by
25.1
Increase by
24.4%
Capsicum Solan Increase by
2.2%
Increase by
57.3%
Increase by
61.3%
Increase by
20.1%
Onion Pune Increase by
0.9%
Increase by
20.4%
Increase by
30.1%
Increase by
30.2%
Potato Anand Decrease by
3.1%
Increase by
10.3%
Increase by
13.5%
Increase by
5.4%
C
a
s
h
C
r
o
p
S
Cotton Hisar, Coimbatore,
Hyderabad
Decrease by
4-10%
Increase by
2-3%
Increase by
6-20%
Increase by
3-20%
Jute Kalyani Decrease by
24.9%
Increase by 11% Increase by
21%
Increase by
14.1%
Tobacco Anand Increase by
2.8 %
Increase by
11.7%
Increase by
21.5 %
Increase by
0.9%
64 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
Oil
Seeds
Mustard Hisar; Kalyani;
Jodhpur
Decrease by
2-10%
Increase by
3-11%
Increase by
7-20%
Increase by
2-10%
P
U
L
S
E
S
Gram Raipur, Jaipur Decrease by
3-5%
Increase by
8-14%
Increase by
11-30%
Increase by
7-16%
Red Gram/
Tur
Bangalore Decrease by
14.1%
Increase by
14.8%
Increase by
32.7%
Increase by
14.8%
F
R
U
I
T
S
Banana Thrissur,
Coimbatore
Increase by
4-10%
Increase by
4-13%
Increase by
25-30%
Increase by
10-11%
Peach Solan Increase by
10.6%
Increase by
57.2%
Increase by
59.9%
Increase by
12.3%
Apricot Solan Increase by
2.2%
Increase by
76.3%
Increase by
82.6%
Increase by
23.7%
The above table attempts to isolate the economic impact of weather based advisories on
different crops cultivated by weather-sensitive users. Indirectly it assesses what the impacts
might have been had the forecasts-cum-advisories not been available. Though the sampling
method was devised to determine the direct and indirect impacts of weather-related costs and
losses for the representative sample of users, there is ample scope for not catching holistic
impacts. Considering the complexity of the situation one can understand the difficulty in
estimating and quantifying the user response. Nevertheless, survey results provide credible
information about the value of forecast-cum-advisory products. It has been found that in
most of the cases, use of AAS advisories resulted in decline in the cost of cultivation up to
25% for the study crops. However, in some cases, cost of cultivation did increase up to 10%
as a result of follow up action on AAS advisories, but this was more than offset by the
consequent increase in net returns up to 83%, with a modal value of 20%. The major crops
which benefited most from the use of AAS service are paddy, wheat, pearl millet and fruits
and vegetables. This proves the usefulness of AAS advisories. This also endorses the need
for dissemination of AAS information to farmers on a wider scale and convincing them
about its positive impacts on a sustainable basis. Undertaking timely field operations due to
adoption of agro-advisories being disseminated twice a week helped in improvement in the
yields of various crops. Equally important but the most challenging task would be to enhance
the accuracy of weather forecast and to make the AAS more useful and demand-driven for
the farm households (Rathore and Maini, 2008).
5.2.13. Current status of R&D in Agrometeorology
At present Research & Development in Agrometeorology is mainly carried out at ICAR
institutions, IMD and State Agriculture Universities. As a matter of fact the R&D effort at
SAUs is coordinated by ICAR through All India Coordinated Research Project on
Agrometeorology (AICRPAM). India Meteorological Department has been carrying out
R&D since setting up of Agrimet Division at Pune in 1932 focusing primarily of following
areas;
i. Forewarning of Pest and diseases incidence
The possibility of occurrence of insects and diseases particularly under favourable weather
conditions when outbreak of pest and diseases occur is an important area of study. In order
India 65
to develop forewarning models of pests and diseases, the following measures are being
taken:
• Creation of data base through collection of historical data on outbreak of insects
and diseases and delineation of the regions prone to different insects and diseases.
• Utilization of pest/ diseases- weather relationship already available at different
State Agricultural Universities (SAUs) / ICAR Institutes.
• Identification of threshold values of weather parameters for each individual phase
of growth cycle of the pest / disease.
• Development of prediction model and strategies for integrated pest management
based on weather parameters through about 20 collaborating Agriculture
Institution/Universities. Pest data for important pest and weather data from the
observatories are being collected using pheromone traps. These data are also
being utilized for developing forewarning models.
ii. Dry farming research
Dry farming tract comprise 87 districts is spread over Haryana, Punjab, Rajasthan, Gujarat,
Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.
The seasonal rainfall variability over most parts of dry farming tract is quite high. The
uneven distribution and high variability of rainfall leads to moisture stress on field crops
causing reduction in their yields. This need to be overcome by adopting the risk management
strategy through assured rainfall and water balance studies. Probability of wet and dry spells
information in the region also helps to plan not only sowing time but also adopt contingency
planning under weather vagaries. By analyzing long period rainfall data (more than 70
years) and computing moisture availability index for the stations in the semi-arid region
suitable cropping patterns are being suggested. Optimizing crop management strategies to
increase production in dry farming areas is being carried out through crop modeling.
iii. Crop weather relationship
Theoretical models of crop weather relationship enable to understand, quantitatively, the role
played by weather elements on crop growth and yield. Such models have been applied to
wheat, paddy, cotton and groundnut crops and response of these crops in various
phenological stages in relation to meteorological factors have been studied. Agroclimatic
classification of India has been attempted by applying principal component method to agro-
climatic factors. Variability of soil moisture and soil temperature and the contribution of dew
has been studied in relation to crop growth. Fluctuations in weather with regard to crop-
factors like leaf area index, stomatal resistance, crop co-efficient, and dry matter production
are also been studied. Field experiments are being conducted using state-of-art instruments
to study the effect of CO2 and PAR(Light) on the rate of photosynthesis in major field crops.
iv. Crop Weather Calendar
Crop weather calendars for 12 states have been published. Also normals of
Agrometeorological observatories have been published. Calendars are being prepared for
other states also. Agroclimatic atlas of India is also being updated.
66 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
v. Drought studies:
By analyzing rainfall data since 1875, ADGM(R) office has worked out the probability of
occurrence of drought in various parts of India has been worked out. Different parameters
like water availability, soil moisture stress, aridity index have been studied. Droughts are
monitored by deriving aridity anomalies on a fortnightly basis in the kharif season and
weekly basis in the north-east monsoon season over the southern peninsula.
Also, agrometeorological data have been analyzed (Spatially & Temporally) to develop
various agro-meteorological applications. As climatological information is essential for
preparation of agro-advisories, the same has been prepared by averaging daily atmospheric
data across a standard 30-year period. With the advent of weather generators to generate
daily temperature, precipitation, radiation, relative humidity, and wind data for crop models,
the amount of input parameters based on climate data can be overwhelming. Soils data on
water-holding capacities (wilting point, field capacity), soil texture, nutrient contents, soil
ph, organic carbon, and soil layer depth have also been collated as they are essential for crop
simulation models. Similarly, agronomic data including data on crop-management
information (planting dates; plant spacing and depth; phenological observations); irrigation
management; cultivar types; historical yield series; and disease, pests, and weed information
have been collected for concerned regions by most AMFUs. Some of the data required for
crop simulation based decision support system have also been acquired through expert
opinion, literature values, and agricultural statistics.
5.2.14. Future Research & Development strategies
Considering growing focus on providing district level advisories to the farmers, the R & D
efforts in agrometeorology is required to take up studies on adoption of new approaches to
analysis and also utilization of modern tools like remote sensing, simulation modeling, GIS
technology and communication system which are all expected to result in framing of more
realistic weather based advisories and render value added services for day-to-day agricultural
operations, and move towards maximization of agricultural produce in the next two decades.
The R&D effort also needs to look at the fact that these services for the farmers are planned
to be up-graded from existing district level to block level in its next leg. Accordingly the
future plan on R&D in agrometerology is mainly focusing on following aspects;
• Strengthening of agromet databases for improving regional / micro level planning.
Develop temporally and spatially diverse climate database that supports a wide
variety of user oriented analysis tools.
• Preparation of State-wise Agroclimatic Atlas and weather-based DSS for growing
crops in different seasons.
• Studies on climate extremes and their probabilities, delineation of hotspots and
regions vulnerable to climate change and their impact on agricultural crops.
• Value addition to agromet information for improving the efficiency of agromet
advisories and its dissemination in local languages using latest ICTs.
• Development of drought monitoring indicators by combining the climate and remote
sensing information and preparation of drought vulnerability maps.
• Development of simple crop-weather relationships for use in AAS
India 67
• Studies on dynamics of pests and diseases in a cropping system mode as influenced
by weather for development of thumb rules for forewarning models and Decision
Support Systems, which are farmer-friendly and economically viable.
• Development of appropriate scientific criteria for National Agricultural Insurance
Schemes both for crops and weather.
• Modelling impacts of climate change / variability on agricultural systems.
• New thrust areas on agrometeorological aspects in horticulture, livestock and
agriculture in hill and island regions.
• Generate agrometeorological Products using weather forecast.
• Application of Remote Sensing in AAS through Linking RS products with crop
growth simulation model and decision support tools.
• Develop interactive agrometeorological information system that delivers a family of
user-selectable products to meet customer needs via Internet and mobile phones.
• A climate applications research program that address climate-relevant natural
resource management.
• Conduct studies to assess economic impact of AAS at local levels.
• Develop sound weather based indices for all crops to cater to needs of Crop Weather
Insurance.
• Develop tools for application of weather forecast in extended and seasonal scales for
translating such forecasts into advisories
Achieving these goals requires leadership and coordination among agricultural weather and
climate service providers at the national, regional, and state levels and with the user
community at all levels. From the IMD, MoES, adequate funding is being provided for the
maintenance of a modernized observational network that includes data needed for
agricultural analysis.
5.2.15. Future Projection under AAS
It is proposed to downscale the Agromet Advisory Service at relatively smaller areas of the
country. The main objectives of the proposed project would be:
� To improvise the existing District level Agromet Advisory Services (AAS in order
to deliver the AAS to farmers at block level with village level advisory.
� To provide last mile connectivity to farmers for accessing the personalized agromet
advisory services.
� To extend the agromet advisory service to the new areas like livestock, fisheries etc.
� To establish appropriate dissemination system to reach each and every farmer in the
country
� To establish an appropriate support system for weather based crop insurance in the
country.
� To address the climate and climatic variability through high resolution agromet
advisory service system.
The beneficiaries of the proposed service include:
� The small, marginal and large farmers engaged in cultivation cereal crops, cash
crops horticultural and plantation crops.
68 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
� Livestock and fisheries Farmers.
� Different high valued crop growers like mango, apple, grapes etc. in the country
� State and central level planners formulating the strategies for crop cultivation.
There are number of stake holders like State Agricultural Universities, Department of
Agriculture (both State and Central Governments), Krishi Vigyan Kendras, ATMA, NGOs,
Crop Growers’ Associations and others are involved in this project. All the above mentioned
stake holders are being consulted periodically in framing the projects. All the beneficiaries
will be directly incorporated in the project by organising different farmer’s awareness
programmes etc. Followings are the major areas of works will be taken up in the proposed
project.
� Preparation of high resolution forecast at block level
� Dissemination of Block level Agromet Advisories
� Establishment of optimum observational network
� Convergence of IAAS with KVK & ATMA, CSC, NGOs etc.
� Linkage with DOS on application of Remote Sensing in AAS
� Establishment of District Agro-Met Units (DAMU)
� Permanency of AMFUs & proposed DAMU
� Set up smart Telecom system
� Stronger Linkages with AICRP(AM)
� Economic impact assessment
� Crop weather insurance
5.2.16. All India Coordinated Research Project on Agrometeorology
(AICRPAM)
With an aim to bring stability in food grain production on the face of varying weather
conditions, Government of India recognized the research needs in agrometeorology and
started strengthening it at its various Research Institutes functioning under Indian Council of
Agriculture Research (ICAR). The National Commission on Agriculture (NCA) (1976)
strongly recommended for establishment of Departments of Agricultural Meteorology at
each State Agricultural University for strengthening teaching and research in Agricultural
Meteorology. The inception of All India Coordinated Research Project on Agrometeorology
during 1983 at Crop research Institute for Dry-land Agriculture (CRIDA), Hyderabad was
the culmination of the prompt response of ICAR to the recommendations of NCA for
strengthening agrometeorological research.
The All India Coordinated Research Project on Agrometeorology (AICRPAM) was
launched in the year 1983, by setting a Coordinating Centre at Central Research Institute for
Dryland Agriculture (CRIDA), Hyderabad and 10 Cooperating Centres at different State
Agricultural Universities across the country. Initially the project came into operation at six
centres, viz., Anand, Anantapur, Bangalore, Hisar and Ludhiana, which were already
engaged in teaching and research in the Discipline of Agricultural Meteorology. The
network was further widened in 1985 by inclusion of four more centres, viz., Solapur,
Jabalpur, Mohanpur and Ranchi. During VII Plan period, i.e., two more centres, one at
Kovilpatti in Tamil Nadu and another at Ranichauri in hilly region of Uttarakhand were
India 69
added to the network. In the year 1990, Varanasi centre was closed and in its place, Faizabad
(Uttar Pradesh) was included as Cooperating Centre of the Project. In 1988 through a
USAID funding on Indo-US Sub-project entitled “Strengthening Agrometeorological
Research to enhance Food Production” the project was augmented to equip the Cooperating
Centres with modern agrometeorological instruments and also provided specialized training
to the scientists of the project in USA for six months on identified thrust areas of
agrometeorological research. Considering a good progress the ICAR sanctioned 13
additional centres during VIII Plan and these centres came into operation in 1995-96. In the
year 1998, the project established an Agromet Databank with the financial support from
DST to cater to the needs of agromet data requirement of ICAR Institutes and its scientists.
It is being maintained by ICAR and continued to serve its purpose. During 2001 to 2005,
sanction of five external funded research projects of high budget allocation under National
Agricultural Technology Program (NATP) further strengthened AICRPAM, in terms of
infrastructure and human resource development especially at the Coordinating Unit. For
strengthening of research capabilities of Agrometeorologists, about 22 training programs
were conducted on agrometeorological analysis.
Presently the project is operating with its Coordinating Unit at Hyderabad and Cooperating
Centres in 25 State Agricultures (SAUs) spread across all the agroclimatic regions of country
(Figure 22). This is the first and only Network Project on Agrometeorological Research in
India. The Project maintains its uniqueness among other network projects by not confining
to a single commodity or crop and a particular ecosystem or climatic condition. The
research domain of the project cuts across all the four agro-ecosystems, viz., Rainfed,
Irrigated, Hill & Mountain and Coastal Island. Unlike other Network Project on
Agrometeorology elsewhere in the world, which are mostly focused on data collection and
operational research, it is engaged in both basic and operational research in the discipline of
agrometeorology. Each centre conducts agrometeorological research on one or two main
crops of its region besides analyzing long-term weather data for Agroclimatic
Characterization and Climate Change Studies. All the centres are serving Agro Advisory
Services using the research results obtained over the years.
Fig. 22: Network of AICRPAM Centres
70 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
The Broad R&D domain of AICRPAM is as under:
� To study the agricultural climate in relation to crop planning and assessment of crop
production potentials in different agroclimatic regions,
� To establish crop-weather relationships for all the major rainfed and irrigated crops
in different agroclimatic regions,
� To evaluate the different techniques of modification of crop micro-climate for
improving the water use efficiency and productivity of the crops,
� To study the influence of weather on the incidence and spread of pests and diseases
of field crops,
� To provide weather-based agro advisories using medium range weather forecast and
ICT,
� To collect and update weather data in the Agromet Databank at CRIDA.
Thematic Areas to achieve the objectives include Agroclimatic characterization, Crop-
Weather Relationships, Crop-Weather Modeling, Effect of Weather on Pests and Diseases,
and support to Agro Advisory Services.
Significant Achievements of AICRPAM are as follows:
Over the past two and half decades, network centres of AICRPAM have generated data on
growth, development and yield of crops that were assigned to each centre, besides collecting
historical weather data with respect to their region. Historical crop yield data and the
corresponding weather data of different districts of their respective agroclimatic regions /
state were also collected by each centre. Data on disease / pest incidence of the main crop(s)
of each centre were analyzed in relation to weather conditions. Validation of crop
simulation models were undertaken at some centres. Theme-wise achievements emerged
from the research activities over years are summarized as under:
5.2.16.1 Agroclimatic Characterization
� Climatic resources of many agroclimatic regions were worked out for better
agricultural planning.
� Agroclimatic Atlases were brought out by centres Raipur, Faizabad and Anand.
� The probabilities of weekly and monthly rainfall occurrence were worked out by many
centres and Nakshatra-wise probabilities were also worked out by few centres for easy
understanding of farmers.
� Crop growing environments for mustard, pearlmillet, chickpea, cashew, cardamom
and groundnut were delineated.
� The frequency of occurrence of droughts and their impact on agricultural production
was studied by few centres.
� Climatic variability and trends in different weather parameters were assessed at all the
research centres.
� Observation on VUB radiation was initiated at few centres.
� Daily rainfall data for 9 districts in West Bengal were analyzed to derive information
on assured rainfall, initial and conditional probability of rainfall, wet and dry spells,
length of growing season through forward and backward accumulation, soil water
balance, and moisture adequacy index.
India 71
5.2.16.2 Crop-Weather Relationships
• At Raipur, wheat varieties tolerant to thermal stress were identified with the help of
Thermal Sensitivity Index (TSI).
• Based on line source irrigation experiments in mustard at Anand, it was recommended
to apply four irrigations each of 30 mm through sprinkler for obtaining optimum yield
in middle Gujarat agroclimatic zone. In this zone, higher day length and temperature
during vegetative phase and cooler temperatures (<19˚C) during reproductive period
were found to be optimum weather conditions for higher yield.
• At Bhubaneswar, variety with lesser leaf angle (Ghanteswari) intercepted higher
radiation in rice produced higher grain and straw yields in addition to higher radiation
use efficiency. However, increased the number of grains per panicle due to
supplemental light over natural is more in CR 1009.
• Response farming strategies for overcoming adverse effects of early and late season
droughts in pearlmillet at Solapur, proved that in situ moisture conservation practices
of “ridges and furrows before sowing” to be better over other drought management
practices.
• At Solapur, crop water use can be effectively monitored and yield of pearlmillet could
be accurately estimated with the help of canopy temperature differential.
• At Mohanpur rainfall during 100 percent anthesis to maturity showed significant
positive relationship with rice yield and is crucial for achieving higher yield.
• At Anantapur, a dry spell of more than 15 days duration during pod filling stage was
identified as climatic risk in rainfed groundnut as it reduced yield by 60-75 percent.
• Significant positive relationship between minimum temperature and pod yield in
groundnut were observed at Anand, Anantapur, Ludhiana and Bangalore. At Anand,
minimum temperature around 23-25˚C during pod development stage favoured in
achieving higher pod yield. At Anantapur and Ludhiana, drop in nigh temperature
below 20˚C adversely affected the growth and yield of groundnut. • Based on long-term (1976-1996) yield data of fingermillet (Indaf-8) under different sowing
windows and the corresponding rainfall during the crop growing period at Bangalore, sowing
window period 9 July to 5 August was identified to be the best for obtaining high yield.
• The analysis of rice yield in relation to weather parameters at Dapoli reveals that
sunshine hour is the major climatic constraints for not only achieving higher grain and
straw yields but also for achieving higher harvest index. Therefore, sowing of crop 20
days after the onset of monsoon seems to be optimum period for getting higher grain
and straw yields as increased number of sunshine hours during maturity helped in
increasing the productivity.
• Crop water requirement in different growth stages as well as total growing period were
worked out for all important crops, viz., rice, wheat, maize, sorghum, pearlmillet,
soybean, groundnut, mustard, cotton and gram.
• At Anand, 1˚C increase in minimum temperature in the month of December and
January reduced the wheat yield by 217 and 404 kg/ha, respectively.
• Both maximum (MXT) and minimum (MNT) temperature was found to had negative
effect on wheat yield at Kanpur.
72 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
• At Samastipur, wheat yield and weather relations facilitated to identify wheat varieties
PBW-343 and HP-1744 for early sowing (27 Nov) and K-9107) and NW-1014 for late
sowing.
• Thermal sensitivity of mustard varieties were evaluated at Raipur and identified Pusa
Gold and T-9 are susceptible and Pusa Bold and Pusa Agrani to be moderately
susceptible to thermal stress.
• At Mohanpur, seed yield of mustard was found to be highly significant positive
relation (R2 = 0.98) with radiation during the growing period.
• Yield of sunflower at Solapur was found to be significant positive relationship with
cumulative moisture use and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) during the total
growing period. Unit increase in moisture use produced 2.3 kg/ha more yields.
• At Kovilpatti, rainfall during the growing period was found to be significant positive
relationship with yield of rabi sorghum.
• The relationship between cardamom productivity in Kerala and water deficit during
summer was worked out by Thrissur.
• Potato yield at Mohanpur was found to be inversely related with air temperature
during planting to ripening stage and soil temperature (at 15 cm) during tuberization to
end of bulking stage.
• At Dapoli, cucumber fruit yield was found to be significant parabolic relationship with
growing degree days during reproductive stage.
• Yield of chickpea at Jabalpur was found to be significant negative relationship with
temperature during reproductive period. Increase in temperature by 10C during
reproductive period caused yield loss of 82 kg/ha.
• At Ranichauri, minimum temperature less than 100C during grain filling and maturity
stages reduced seed yield of amaranthus.
• Based on agrometeorological studies, Bhogali and Monohar Sali varieties of rice were
identified for delayed transplanting conditions at Jorhat.
• At Ludhiana, water production functions were developed for wheat, raya, gram,
sunflower, soybean, groundnut and greengram. In case of wheat, one or two
irrigations during flowering and milking stage proved to improve yield and harvest
index of the crop.
• Yield of mustard at Faizabad and cotton yield at Kovilpatti showed significant inverse
relationship with canopy temperature, under rainfed conditions.
• At Bijapur, a multiple regression equation relating yield of pearlmillet with weather
parameters, viz., maximum temperature at 3 and 6 week (TX3 and TX6) and cloud
cover at 8 and 9 week ( CC 8 and CC9) was developed. This model can provide yield
forecast 3 to 4 week in advance of harvest.
• At Hisar, the decrease in seed yield of mustard was of the order of 4.4 q/ha for every
10C rise in minimum temperature during seed development period.
• At Akola rainfall during reproductive stage was found to have significant exponential
relationship with soybean yield.
• At Parbhani, weather during milk stage was found to be highly significant relationship
with yield of kharif sorghum. Rainfall, number of rainy days, minimum temperature
and number of sunshine hours at this stage positively influenced the yield.
• At Palampur, Crop Weather Calendar for maize and rice crops was prepared.
India 73
• At Ludhiana, based on microclimatic studies, it was recommended to decrease the row spacing
to 15 cm from the existing practice of 22.5 cm row spacing in wheat crop, in view of the
increase of 13 percent increase in yield and same was adopted by PAU in farmers’ fields.
• Analysis of data on phenology of mustard (cv. Varuna) over three locations, viz.,
Hisar, Arjia and Mohanpur, in relation to temperature showed that duration of both
vegetative and reproductive phases is inversely related to average temperature during
the respective phases. Increase in temperature by 10C reduced the vegetative period
by 3 days and reproductive period by 6 days among the stations. At the same
locations, increase in duration by one day improves yield by 32.8 kg/ha and increase in
temperature by 10C reduces yield by 174 kg/ha.
5.2.16.3 Crop Growth Modelling
• Centres have validated process-based crop simulation models, viz., DSSAT,
PEANUTGRO, BRASSICA, CERES, and RODMOD, for major crops like rice,
wheat, sorghum, groundnut, soybean and mustard.
• Sensitivity analysis of models like INFOCROP, WHEATGRO, etc. was worked out
by comparing predicted values with observed ones.
• Large database on phenology and GDD requirement of many crops, viz., rice, wheat,
maize, sorghum, pearlmillet, fingermillet, pigeonpea, chickpea, soybean, cotton,
groundnut, greengram, mustard, sunflower, safflower and amaranthus was generated.
• Dry matter partitioning of different crops under different agroclimatic conditions has
been worked out.
• Statistical models using long-term crop and weather data and their validation were
carried out by all the centres.
5.2.16.4 Weather Effects on Pests and Diseases
• Using long-term experimental data, regression models for forecasting powdery mildew
incidence in ber was developed at Bijapur.
• At this centre, a multiple regression model for advance monitoring of bacterial leaf
spot disease in grapes and DSS for pest management was developed.
• Kovilpatti centre has identified the periods of outbreak of bacterial blight disease in
cotton from the historical disease and weather data and suggested contingency plans
for spraying of chemicals.
• A multiple regression equations using temperature, relative humidity, wind direction
and evaporation was developed for prediction of Helicoverpa Armigera population in
cotton crop at Hisar.
• The hotspot areas of tea mosquito bug across the cashew cultivated regions of the
country were demarcated considering optimum night temperatures during flushing and
flowering stage by Thrissur centre.
• At Hisar, low mean temperature and high relative humidity were identified to be
causing increase in aphids population in mustard.
74 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
• At Solapur, fall in minimum temperatures to 15˚C with low morning relative humidity
(< 60%) led to sugary secretion in rabi sorghum, in the presence of aphids and
delphacids and minimum temperature less than 12˚C lead to severe sugary secretion.
• At Anand, maximum temperature of more than 32˚C favoured infestation of stem rot
and maximum temperature between 26-28˚C and relative humidity of 82-86 percent
favoured infestation of white rust in mustard.
• At Faizabad, the thumb rules were developed for incidence of alternaria leaf blight in
wheat.
• At Palampur, analysis of 21 years pest and weather data brought out that RH of about
90 percent, night temperature les than 20˚C and cloudy conditions were conducive for
development of blast disease in rice.
• Weather condition identified to be conducive for development of insect pests of rice
crop at Mohanpur were identified.
• Anantapur centre found close relation between emergence of red hairy caterpillar
(RHC) in groundnut and heavy rainfall events. RHC reach a peak 3 to 4 days after
rain event and can be predicted 8 to 9 days in advance.
• At Bangalore, regression equations relating tikka disease in groundnut and weather
conditions, i.e., relative humidity (RH), growing degree days (GDD) and sunshine
hours (SSH) was developed.
• Incidence of stem borer (SBR) is positively related with cumulative rainfall during
preceding 15 days at Bhubaneswar.
• Based on data for 12 seasons, minimum temperature, relative humidity during soft
dough stage, number of rainy days and rainfall from sowing to harvest in wheat were
identified as factors responsible for incidence and spread of Karnal bunt disease at
Hissar.
• With the help of block level daily rainfall, crop statistics and soil information, climatic
constraints for low productivity of rice in eastern India were identified. The major
constraint for rainfed rice production is low dependable rainfall during reproductive
stage which is not sufficient to meet water requirement at the crucial stage.
• Under the project “Near real time monitoring of Agroclimatic Conditions – A Case
Study for Andhra Pradesh” thematic maps of weekly rainfall and temperature
departures as well as soil moisture index maps were prepared for preparing contingent
crop plans.
• Under “INARIS: Climate Database Management” project, long-term daily weather
data were stored in Oracle Database. Spatial distribution maps of monthly weather
parameters, viz., maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall and those of
derived indices, aridity index and moisture adequacy index during monsoon was
developed.
• Under the project “New Approaches to IPM in rainfed rice-based production system”,
weather-based pest forecasting models for yellow stem borer, brown plant hopper and
green leaf hopper in rice were developed and validated.
• Under the project “Development of weather-based forewarning systems for crop pests
and diseases”, crop-pest-disease-weather relationships were developed for 14 targeted
insect pests and 12 diseases in six crops. Simple weather-based thumb rules for
forewarning of pests / diseases were developed and validated. A decision support
India 75
model for leaf spot in groundnut, a degree-day model for aphids in mustard and neural
network model for yellow stem borer in rice and American boll worm in cotton were
developed.
• Under the ongoing Network Project on “Climate Change”, annual rainfall data of 1140
stations in rainfed districts of the country were analyzed and regions vulnerable to
climate change were identified. The impacts of climate change on crop water
requirement and length of growing season of wheat in Indo-Gangetic Plains and on
yield of major crops in other regions were studied.
5.2.17. Conclusions
Nearly 700 million rural people in India directly depend on climate-sensitive sector
(agriculture, forests, and fisheries) and natural resources for their subsistence and livelihood.
Under changing climate food security of the country might come under threat. In addition,
the adaptive capacity of dry land farmers, forest and coastal communities is low. In
increased in weather extremes like torrential rain, heat wave, cold wave, flood besides year
to year variability in rainfall affects agricultural productivity significantly and lead
stagnation/ decline in production across various agro-climatic zones. In developing countries
like India, climate change could represent an additional stress on ecological and
socioeconomic systems that are already facing tremendous pressures due to rapid
urbanization, industrialization and economic development. With its huge and growing
population, a 7,500 km long densely populated and lowlying coastline, and an economy that
is closely tied to its natural resource base, India is considerably vulnerable to the impacts of
climate change. Increased temperatures will impact agricultural production. Higher
temperatures reduce the total duration of a crop cycle by inducing early flowering, thus
shortening the ‘grain fill’ period. The shorter the crop cycle, the lower the yield per unit area.
There is growing need to qualify the effects of rising temperature on yield of crops in
different agroecologies and agri-production environments. There is thus an urgent need to
address the climate change and variability issues holistically. Climate change, energy
security and food security are interlinked, and require an integrated approach. Some specific
options have already been identified, tested and documented for climate change mitigation
and adaptation for agriculture sector, such as sustainable land and forest management;
changing varieties; more efficient water use; altering the timing or location of cropping
activities; improving the effectiveness of pest, disease and weed management practices and
making better use of seasonal climate forecasts to reduce production risks. If these options
are widely adopted, they could have substantial potential to offset negative impacts from
climate change and take advantage of positive impacts. To cope with climate change more
effectively, it is necessary to identify integrated adaptation and mitigation options for a range
of agroecosystems so as to enable a favorable policy environment for the implementation of
the framework. The policy implications are wide-reaching, as changes in agriculture could
affect food security, trade policy, livelihood activities and water conservation issues,
impacting large portions of the population.
To promote sustainable farm production in the scenario of increased climate variability and
climate change, India Meteorological Department (IMD), Ministry of Earth Sciences, has
strengthened the weather forewarning system and also developed weather information based
advisory service to assist farmers to undertake suitable farm management practices. The
76 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
service has components that mitigate likely impacts of severe weather and harness
benevolent weather. Under the service known as Agrometeorological Advisory Service
(AAS), the needs of farming community were defined through ascertaining information
requirement of diverse groups of farmers to find that the prime need of farming community
is to have location specific weather forecast in quantitative terms for medium range and
beyond. Hence, the district level medium range weather forecast was developed and made
operational in June, 2008. Thereafter, mechanism was developed to integrate weather
forecast and climatic information along with agro-meteorological information to prepare
district level agro-advisories outlining the farm management actions to harness favorable
weather and mitigate impacts of adverse weather. A system has also been developed to
communicate and disseminate the agro-meteorological advisories to strengthen the
information out reach.
5.2.18. References
Agarwal PK, Sinha SK (1993) Effect of probable increase in carbon dioxide and temperature
on productivity of wheat in India. Jour Agric.Meteorol. 48: 811-814.
Agarwal, P.K., 2002. Climate Change and Agriculture: Information Needs and Research
Priorities. International Conference on Capacity Building for Climate Change 21
October 2002.
Bhattacharya S (2006) Climate Change and India. International Workshop on Future
International Climate Policy, August 9, 2006, University of Sao Paulo, Brazil.
Carlson, J.D., 1989. The Importance of Agricultural Weather Information - A Michigan
Survey. Bulletin of American Meteorological Society 70 (4): 366-380 pp.
Chattopadhyay N, Hulme M (1997) Evaporation and Potential evapotranspiration in India
under conditions of recent and future climate change. Agricultural and Forest
Meteorology 87, 55-73.
Das S.K, Hunt JCR (2007 ) Variability of climate change in India: Current Science. Vol.
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India 79
Appendix-I
National Agromet Advisory Bulletin
Thursday, 18th August, 2011
(For(For(For(For thethethethe periodperiodperiodperiod 18181818thththth AugustAugustAugustAugust totototo 22222222ndndndnd August,August,August,August, 2011)2011)2011)2011)
Satellite image 0600 UTC Dated 19th August, 2011
Issued by
National Agrometeorological Advisory Service Centre
Agricultural Meteorology Division
India Meteorological Department, Shivajinagar, Pune.
The bulletin is also displayed in the website (http://www.imdagrimet.gov.in) of the Division
80 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
Executive Summary
Due to receipt of good amount of rainfall during last two weeks transplanting of paddy was
completed in most parts of the country and this rain also helped the normal growth of
standing paddy crop. There are reports of damage of standing paddy crop in low lying areas
of West Bengal and parts of Assam and Meghalaya. The paddy crop which was facing
moisture stress condition during the end of July in parts of Bihar and Jharkhand also
benefited due to adequate rainfall during last two weeks. Farmers in East Uttar Pradesh were
benefited with the recent rainfall as paddy is the major crop sown in this area. At present,
parts of Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada region, standing crops like cotton, soybean,
sesamum, niger etc. are facing moisture stress condition. Farmers in these areas are advised
to give irrigation to the standing crops. There are also some reports of moisture stress
condition in parts of Haryana. As there was sufficient rainfall in Rayalaseema during last
week, groundnut crop is likely to recover from wilting symptoms especially in Anantapur,
Cuddapah and Kurnool. Farmers are advised to continue sowing of groundnut and short
duration varieties of red gram, black gram, castor and field bean. Fruit dropping have been
noticed in Himachal Pradesh in Apples, Pomogranates and cherries due to heavy rainfall
during last week.
In view of good amount of rainfall reported from most / many districts of Arunachal
Pradesh, Assam, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, West Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Uttar
Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Bihar, Jharkhand, East Rajasthan, Gujarat, Konkan and Goa, Madhya
Maharashtra, Vidarbha, Orissa, West Bengal, Kerala, Coastal, South Interior Karnataka and
Rayalaseema during last week. Widespread / fairly widespread rainfall is also likely to occur
during next three days in East Uttar Pradesh, East India, Northeastern states and along west
coast, farmers of these parts of the country are advised to complete sowing of kharif crops.
Postpone irrigation in the already sown crops.
As isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over Orissa, Coastal Karnataka and
Kerala during next 48 hours and isolated heavy rainfall would occur over East Uttar Pradesh,
Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal and Sikkim, Assam & Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh and
Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura during next 24 hours, farmers in these States are
advised to arrange adequate drainage facilities in the already sown crop fields to avoid water
stagnation.
Due to deficient rainfall during last fortnight in Marathwada, infestation of girdle beetle in
soyabean above ETL was noticed. Due to heavy rainfall during the week in Himachal
Pradesh, black spot may occur in apples and there is a chance of stem borer attack due to
water logging in maize. Farmers are advised to undertake appropriate plant protection
measures to control the pests and diseases. No other major pest and disease incidences were
observed during last week in the country.
India 81
Realised rainfall for the States of Maharashtra, Haryana, Himachal
Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh during last few weeks State/Districts Actual 20.07.11 Actual 27.07.11 Actual 03.08.11 Actual 10.08.11 Actual 17.08.11
Himachal Pradesh
Bilaspur 89.3 4 21.1 -75 26.7 -67 20.5 -78 302.2 359
Chamba 37.6 -60 35.0 -63 10.5 -87 63.0 -25 122.0 64
Hamirpur 96.2 -15 39.2 -61 47.8 -50 70.9 -28 361.0 212
Kangra 95.5 -37 127.4 -21 79.4 -52 262.2 61 256.0 55
Kinnaur 5.5 -55 40.6 272 2.6 -73 24.9 122 74.7 430
Kullu 28.4 -54 50.1 -16 16.4 -67 54.9 43 204.3 408
Lahaul and Spiti 2.6 -94 0.2 -99 0.0 -100 16.0 -45 93.4 183
Mandi 45.2 -59 118.9 0 36.0 -70 94.1 -6 249.5 174
Shimla 44.3 -43 55.2 -17 5.2 -92 52.8 -3 105.5 89
Sirmaur 115.3 -4 86.8 -38 34.0 -72 55.6 -57 126.7 -6
Solan 138.9 41 30.4 -68 10.2 -88 16.0 -81 113.8 24
Una 120.8 63 33.6 -52 13.2 -84 115.1 51 322.4 329
Haryana
Ambala 55.9 -10 93.3 37 33.2 -50 23.9 -63 58.2 3
Bhiwani 8.5 -74 0.0 -100 10.5 -65 25.9 -15 6.6 -82
Chandigarh 103.1 65 41.8 -34 33.2 -54 36.9 -57 91.5 29
Faridabad 25.5 -39 17.0 -65 27.5 -32 39.3 -8 90.3 126
Fatehabad 6.5 -71 0.8 -98 13.3 -52 26.9 10 7.0 -70
Gurgaon 2.0 -96 32.0 -42 26.6 -38 16.0 -68 38.2 -25
Hissar 8.7 -69 2.3 -93 17.8 -28 18.2 -33 2.0 -94
Jhajar 1.5 -96 0.0 -100 58.9 85 2.7 -92 12.0 -68
Jind 1.9 -95 1.4 -95 25.3 -17 12.0 -64 27.4 -9
Katihal 4.0 -91 0.0 -100 18.3 -47 3.5 -92 12.5 -71
Karnal 11.0 -80 25.0 -35 16.3 -63 22.9 -50 51.5 -15
Kurukshetra 5.2 -90 2.6 -94 0.2 -99 14.6 -65 25.9 -52
Mahendragarh 26.1 -40 0.0 -100 12.4 -52 12.0 -69 19.6 -62
Palwal 1.6 -96 46.8 -5 13.8 -66 42.6 0 65.3 63
Panchkkula 63.0 -17 27.3 -65 9.8 -89 28.8 -64 58.4 -27
Panipat 1.4 -97 1.4 -97 0.5 -99 5.7 -86 31.5 -38
Rewari 9.8 -80 3.5 -93 1.2 -97 22.1 -63 24.1 -56
Rohtak 1.1 -98 1.2 -98 13.3 -62 24.7 -32 9.4 -78
Sirsa 18.3 -25 0.0 -100 9.4 -64 88.3 500 20.2 -20
Sonepat 19.4 -58 9.4 -83 9.9 -78 19.3 -51 45.5 -19
Yamunanagar 69.7 9 29.1 -62 35.1 -59 17.5 -79 94.9 29
New Delhi 10.5 -82 17.8 -72 11.9 -80 13.4 -80 72.8 27
Maharashtra
Konkan & Goa
Goa 405.3 54 169.2 -36 338.4 44 152.3 -20 78.7 -54
Mumbai 404.8 111 120.6 -20 542.6 237 35.3 -70 40.7 -67
Raigad 565.0 97 172.3 -31 557.6 102 136.6 -31 116.9 -47
Ratnagiri 719.6 157 308.6 14 695.5 149 138.8 -35 93.7 -56
Sindhudurg 467.9 86 235.9 -14 434.5 89 125.8 -31 75.9 -54
Thane 356.5 46 65.7 -67 473.5 132 90.7 -47 120.6 -29
Madhya
Maharashtra
Ahmednagar 35.1 47 21.8 -5 20.0 -8 2.2 -88 3.9 -77
Dhule 56.8 62 24.3 -40 14.5 -62 31.5 -15 19.3 -25
Jalgaon 53.3 24 21.3 -51 77.4 57 41.5 -24 8.3 -80
Kolhapur 287.6 75 136.8 -17 140.5 -4 123.8 -6 81.2 -34
Nandurbar 78.7 10 39.8 -42 43.0 -37 88.8 34 109.2 110
Nasik 98.2 37 50.2 -29 57.2 -27 34.1 -49 56.8 -4
Pune 130.1 85 25.8 -60 38.5 -47 23.2 -61 34.4 -40
Sangli 50.5 38 18.2 -41 18.2 -46 10.9 -60 17.7 -28
Satara 187.1 201 65.0 22 73.3 22 60.6 36 63.3 43
Solapur 20.5 -11 11.0 -57 40.2 53 2.2 -89 1.0 -95
Marathwada
Aurangabad 34.7 -4 25.5 -35 48.6 17 16.1 -55 4.3 -86
Beed 98.5 224 46.5 32 37.3 9 9.1 -64 1.8 -94
Hingoli 49.9 -2 19.5 -66 33.4 -51 53.3 -3 14.1 -77
82 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
Jalna 50.3 38 43.8 4 39.1 -9 23.2 -34 3.3 -90
Latur 136.7 228 26.4 -57 87.3 40 11.7 -72 6.9 -86
Nanded 70.5 47 17.8 -73 91.1 35 31.7 -33 16.1 -72
Usmanabad 38.4 20 10.5 -73 60.7 47 2.1 -93 3.2 -90
Parbhani 104.4 164 70.7 22 48.6 -19 17.2 -55 7.1 -86
Vidarbha
Akola 58.0 1 34.3 -40 7.4 -85 24.7 -60 19.4 -51
Amraoti 95.9 57 62.1 6 18.2 -71 65.7 -6 53.2 0
Bhandara 167.0 86 75.9 -5 10.5 -88 161.8 41 47.0 -44
Buldhana 71.9 65 19.0 -58 35.1 -29 26.4 -53 8.3 -79
Chandrapur 68.6 -13 42.2 -51 42.4 -55 107.4 12 84.3 1
Gadchiroli 121.0 18 56.4 -47 36.7 -68 136.7 28 101.2 -5
Gondia 143.5 42 146.3 63 27.7 -72 151.3 39 47.8 -49
Nagpur 140.7 95 64.6 1 20.1 -72 129.5 72 52.3 -5
Wardha 94.9 55 53.1 -15 24.2 -64 92.0 25 82.5 33
Washim 96.0 71 40.3 -29 33.8 -44 51.8 -27 16.8 -71
Yeotmal 92.8 53 36.8 -41 38.3 -40 64.6 -4 45.0 -25
Andhra Pradesh
Coastal Andhra Pradesh
East Godavari 58.9 30 26.1 -49 46.5 12 42.4 -6 60.7 35
Guntur 14.6 -54 49.7 26 65.2 85 8.5 -70 22.1 -44
Krishna 47.5 10 44.7 -23 104.8 113 13.0 -68 34.7 -31
Nellore 2.1 -90 24.5 -7 38.1 116 6.0 -70 9.8 -58
Prakasam 5.0 -78 20.3 -25 16.2 -28 8.2 -47 13.7 -38
Sirkakulam 21.1 -52 18.2 -62 73.9 70 25.3 -43 37.9 -19
Visakhapatnam 17.7 -56 33.0 -28 58.9 48 32.4 -13 32.1 -29
Vizianagram 18.7 -52 43.0 -4 52.9 26 10.0 -72 34.8 -23
West Godavari 63.5 27 37.5 -40 102.1 108 20.6 -63 42.2 -25
Telangana
Adilabad 81.0 19 26.7 -67 110.2 45 48.4 -28 29.6 -58
Hyderabad 51.5 33 60.9 17 17.8 -63 6.5 -84 15.8 -67
Karimnagar 76.1 47 36.3 -43 61.2 2 20.4 -63 33.2 -39
Khammam 104.2 75 34.9 -52 45.9 -38 27.5 -54 50.7 -21
Mehabubnagar 9.6 -74 53.9 27 68.3 59 13.7 -56 16.7 -58
Medak 81.8 62 31.3 -49 86.0 44 29.4 -36 46.5 -14
Nalgonda 21.1 -43 55.3 29 23.2 -35 3.5 -88 10.5 -71
Nizamabad 123.4 118 50.3 -34 135.3 81 38.0 -42 36.9 -49
Rangareddy 26.6 -37 39.6 -22 57.6 23 5.9 -82 24.8 -47
Warangal 81.1 42 29.3 -59 114.6 91 9.1 -83 57.5 -2
Rayalaseema
Anantapur 4.2 -72 51.4 194 10.4 -33 12.1 -19 24.6 59
Chittoor 9.0 -63 67.8 138 24.4 27 14.5 -46 63.1 161
Cuddapah 0.7 -97 70.0 141 18.1 -22 3.6 -86 31.5 25
Kurnool 2.7 -89 53.6 71 39.4 33 14.7 -43 30.9 5
(20% or more) excess rainfall (-60 to -99 %) scanty rainfall
(-19 to +19%) normal rainfall (-100%) no rainfall
(-20 to -59% )deficient rainfall ** Data not available
India 83
Distribution of rainfall for remaining states of the country during
last week
State / Districts Actual 17.08.11
Arunachal Pradesh
Changlang 31.3 -72
East Kameng 49.2 -27
East Siang 223.6 37
Lohit 42.6 -63
Lower Subansiri 70.0 26
Papumpara 194.0 76
Tawang 60.0 -59
Tirap 29.6 -75
Upper Siang 55.4 -59
Upper Subansiri 72.6 29
West Kameng 137.0 -6
West Siang ** **
Assam
Barpeta 159.3 -3
Bongaigaon 181.4 34
Cachar 80.6 -26
Darrang 198.8 47
Dhubri 130.0 39
Dibrugarh 150.6 63
East Garo Hills 347.1 329
East Khasi Hills 522.3 119
Goalpara 54.9 -43
Golghat 63.1 1
Hailakandi 45.3 -53
Jaintia Hills 179.0 -27
Jorhat 115.3 55
Kamrup 65.0 -11
Karbi Analog 56.4 18
Karimganj 226.0 118
Kokrajhar 263.0 54
Lakhimpur 216.3 83
Morigaon 59.0 -17
N.C.Hills 61.0 37
Nowgong 37.6 -38
Nalbari 86.3 15
Sonitpur 151.6 7
Sibsagar 81.2 7
Tinsukia 110.3 12
Himachal Pradesh
Bilaspur 302.2 359
Chamba 122.0 64
Hamirpur 361.0 212
Kangra 256.0 55
Kinnaur 74.7 430
Kullu 204.3 408
Lahaul and Spiti 93.4 183
Mandi 249.5 174
Shimla 105.5 89
Sirmaur 126.7 -6
Solan 113.8 24
Una 322.4 329
Punjab
Amritsar 52.9 15
Barnala 42.8 10
Bhatinda 69.7 123
Faridkot 21.6 -29
Fatehgarh Saheb 201.3 387
Ferozpur 44.8 81
Gurdaspur 103.4 51
Hoshiarpur 161.7 157
Jalandhar 156.5 236
Kapurthala 75.4 120
Ludhiana 195.1 320
Mansa 10.2 -70
Moga 33.6 -1
Muktesar 6.0 -77
Nawashahar 263.8 386
Patiala 93.6 130
Ropar 233.1 318
Sangrur 31.6 -19
Mohali 37.2 -9
TarnTaran 39.1 -15
Jammu & Kashmir
Anantnag 44.9 225
Badgam 58.2 547
Doda 67.6 248
Jammu 202.2 149
Kathua 95.4 -6
Kupwara 6.5 -45
Ladakh(Leh) 5.0 25
Pulwama 23.4 76
Srinagar 22.9 71
Udhampur 100.5 -8
East Madhya Pradesh
Anuppur 145.7 40
Balaghat 78.9 -39
Chhatarpur 33.6 -64
Chindwara 16.6 -77
Damoh 18.4 -80
Dindori 199.1 87
Jabalpur 50.6 -55
Katni 1.0 -99
Mandla 132.2 0
Narsingpur ** **
Panna 24.4 -76
Rewa 0.4 -100
Sagar 37.0 -64
Satna 55.2 -42
Seoni 73.6 -19
Shahdol 91.0 -2
Sidhi 0.0 -100
Singrauli 122.0 83
Tikamgarh 39.8 -55
Umaria 79.8 -31
West Madhya Pradesh
Alirajpur 124.6 123
Asoknagar 2.5 -97
Badwani 48.7 15
Betul 44.8 -43
Bhind 58.1 -28
Bhopal ** **
Burhanpur 7.5 -88
Datia 15.7 -81
Dewas 55.0 -33
Dhar 78.1 41
Guna 50.4 -38
Gwalior 42.0 -45
Harda 11.7 -89
Hosangabad 35.5 -72
Indore 61.0 -1
Jhabua 98.2 101
Khandwa 29.1 -58
Khargone 29.6 -44
Mandsaur 34.9 -43
Morena 265.8 232
Neemuch 55.5 -19
Raisen 17.2 -83
Rajgarh 13.7 -82
Ratlam 156.1 143
Sehore 20.5 -78
Shajapur 23.9 -67
Sheopur Kalani 9.5 -88
Shivpuri 12.7 -81
Ujjain 64.9 9
Vidisha 42.3 -56
Chattisgarh
Bastar 15.2 -83
Bijapur 67.5 -41
Bilaspur 114.7 31
Dantewara 101.6 16
Dhamtari 34.6 -59
Durg 24.0 -70
Janjgir 99.8 -11
Jashpurnagar 135.9 37
Kanker 80.5 -22
Korba 140.1 19
Koriya 199.6 103
Kawardha 37.0 -46
Mahasumund 44.8 -50
Narayanpur 59.5 -40
Raigarh 58.6 -33
Raipur 41.3 -51
Rajandgaon 33.6 -56
Surguja 126.9 49
East Uttar Pradesh
Allahabad 146.8 102
Ambedkar Nagar 103.0 58
Azamgarh 73.3 -3
Bahraich 66.4 5
Ballia 43.8 -39
Balrampur 49.2 -34
Banda 172.5 79
Barabanki 128.6 62
Basti 74.0 3
Chandauli 91.0 20
Deoria 99.5 8
Faizabad 71.1 8
Farrukhabad 121.5 44
Fatehpur 54.6 -36
Gazipur 99.9 29
Gonda 53.3 -23
Gorakhpur 65.6 -22
Hardoi 154.5 135
Jaunpur 69.7 2
Kannauj 142.3 70
Kanpur City 70.0 3
Kanpur Dehat 156.3 141
Kaushambi 80.5 15
84 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
Kheri 162.6 117
Kushi nagar 48.5 -48
Lucknow 234.3 216
Maharajganj 14.6 -86
Mau 76.0 -7
Mirzapur 167.8 133
Pratapgarh 78.0 5
RaiBarelly 67.3 -11 Sahuji Maharajnagar 174.0 117
Sant Kabirnnagar 30.0 -62 Sant Ravidas Nagar 67.0 -12
Shrawasti 97.1 53
Sidharthnagar 46.8 -39
Sitapur 187.3 162
Sonbhadra 146.7 93
Sultanpur 60.3 -18
Unnao 100.9 28
Varanasi 133.6 145
West Uttar Pradesh
Agra 38.6 -49
Aligarh 111.3 78
Auraiya 176.6 165
Badaun 90.6 23
Baghpat 41.5 -31
Bareilly 213.5 181
Bijnor 277.0 218
Bulandsahar 124.8 74
Etah 62.5 -12
Etawah 122.3 68
Firozabad 73.4 13
GBNagar 162.0 199
Ghaziabad 75.0 30
Hamirpur 84.1 -3
Jalaun 119.4 45
Jhansi 56.2 -33 Jotirba Phule Nagar 153.3 85
Kanshiramnagar 145.5 105
Lalitpur 21.0 -75
Mahamaya Nagar 135.1 96
Mahoba 48.6 -48
Mainpuri 89.5 21
Mathura 40.3 -35
Meerut 100.9 43
Moradabad 262.8 227
Muzzaffarnagar 42.1 -39
Pilibhit 163.4 104
Rampur 101.2 38
Saharanpur 19.3 -73
Shahjahanpur 103.8 40
UttaraKhand
Almora 247.6 235
Bageshwar 123.0 67
Chamoli 128.9 64
Champawat 387.8 353
Dehradun 275.9 61
Garhwal Pauri 191.2 57
Garhwal Tehri 233.3 255
Haridwar 307.1 222
Nainital 376.3 247
Pithorgarh 218.7 83
Rudraprayag 172.4 3 Udham Sing Nagar 336.0 228
Uttarkashi 219.6 75
Bihar
Araria 167.0 119
Arwal 91.8 34
Aurangabad 112.6 89
Banka 50.4 -10
Begusarai 77.2 -1
Bhabua 163.5 116
Bhagalpur 49.7 -11
Bhojpur 31.0 -50
Buxar 23.2 -66
Darbhanga 63.3 5
East Champaran 69.6 22
Gaya 188.1 161
Gopalganj 67.2 4
Jahanabad 95.1 75
Jamui 98.5 56
Kathihar 53.5 -22
Khagadia 44.8 -34
Kishanganj 242.1 110
Lakhisarai 50.1 -14
Madhepura 85.5 37
Madhubani 46.2 -21
Monghyar 77.0 32
Muzaffarpur 75.7 34
Nalanda 105.6 82
Nawada 50.3 -21
Patna 40.8 -32
Purnea 167.6 159
Rohtas 165.3 126
Saharsha 129.5 114
Samstipur 109.2 95
Saran 41.5 -40
Sheikpura 32.8 -40
Sheohar 44.0 -38
Sitamarhi 45.2 -36
Siwan 27.3 -62
Supaul 100.9 67
Vaishali 20.4 -68
West Champaran 80.7 7
Jharkhand
Bokaro 224.7 232
Chatra 145.5 86
Deoghar 161.2 146
Dhanbad 181.3 188
Dumka 102.1 33
East Singbhum 206.4 191
Garhwa 157.4 83
Giridih 177.0 192
Godda 91.9 70
Gumla 142.0 62
Hazaribagh 63.6 -8
Jamtara 132.0 52
Khunti 160.3 144
Koderna 104.6 76
Latehar 178.0 162
Lohardagga 206.3 222
Pakur 113.0 26
Palamau 172.9 124
Ramgarh 312.8 351
Ranchi 235.7 259
Sahebganj 204.8 174
Seraikela 140.3 125
Simdega 112.2 28
West Singbhum 174.5 127
East Rajasthan
Ajmer 57.5 37
Alwar 52.8 -2
Banswara 52.7 -11
Baran 26.5 -63
Bharatpur 31.0 -45
Bhilwara 34.2 -41
Bundi 22.7 -63
Chittorgarh 40.8 -37
Dausa 76.6 36
Dholpur 13.8 -80
Dungarpur 55.8 22
Jaipur 65.1 38
Jhalawar 8.1 -90
Jhunjhunu 20.1 -43
Karauli 44.0 -40
Kota 27.3 -59
Pratapgarh 33.4 -48
Rajsamand 120.3 151
Sawai Madhopur 50.1 -21
Sikar 46.9 30
Sirohi 250.4 213
Tonk 65.5 21
Udaipur 57.8 27
West Rajasthan
Barmer 101.4 324
Bikaner 44.1 141
Churu 19.3 -12
Hanumangarh 27.3 38
Jaisalmer 92.8 340
Jalore 135.2 267
Jodhpur 42.4 68
Nagaur 30.7 14
Pali 73.6 107
Sri Ganganagar 62.5 238
Gujarat Region
Ahmedabad 147.3 217
Anand 236.0 254
Banaskantha 158.5 267
Baroda 210.7 193
Broach 100.6 104
DNH 132.2 -18
Dahod 144.9 153
Daman 115.8 -29
Dangs 138.0 12
Gandhinagar 206.5 338
Kheda 156.4 168
Mehsana 171.6 271
Narmada 173.0 110
Navsari 127.6 7
Panchmahal 159.8 123
Patan 211.7 419
Sabarkantha 144.2 147
Surat 148.1 87
Tapi 112.9 17
Valsad 141.9 11
Saurashtra, Kutch & Diu region
Amreli 42.7 47
Bhavnagar 72.3 123
Diu 31.3 -11
Jamnagar 58.9 104
Junagarh 78.1 108
Kutch 180.9 572
Porbandar 5.5 -84
Rajkot 115.1 248
Surendranagar 116.1 260
Orissa
Angul 104.3 27
Balasore 117.9 48
Bargarh 76.2 -14
Bhadrak 103.4 21
India 85
Bolangir 56.3 -36
Boudh 104.4 13
Cuttack 74.3 -1
Deogarh 79.1 -35
Dhenkanal 173.5 102
Gajapati 42.9 -36
Ganjam 30.8 -44
Jagatsingpur 34.9 -55
Jajpur 127.2 63
Jharsuguda 64.5 -39
Kalahandi 117.1 15
Kandhamal 77.9 -15
Kendrapara 73.7 -20
Keonjhar 111.1 38
Khurda 46.3 -40
Koraput 29.7 -70
Malkangiri 64.0 -47
Mayurbhanj 114.5 32
Nawapara 43.7 -42
Nawarangpur 56.3 -53
Nayagarh 107.7 27
Puri 52.5 -23
Rayagada 65.5 -1
Sambalpur 102.9 -15
Sonepur 46.0 -60
Sundargarh 84.3 -12
West Bengal
GWB
Bankura 120.0 68
Birbhum 110.0 49
Burdwan 116.1 66
Hooghly 136.0 127
Howrah 139.6 115
East Midnapore 102.0 40
Murshidabad 119.7 79
Nadia 157.1 154
24 Pargana (N) 145.8 94
Purulia 142.5 105
24 Pargana (S) 200.1 121
West Midnapore 200.4 176
SHWB
Cooch Behar 202.4 -7
Darjeeling 257.8 69
East Sikkim 153.3 81
Jalpaiguri 229.6 43
Malda 154.9 142
North Dinajpur 126.2 68
North Sikkim 87.1 -11
South Dinajpur 212.3 258
South Sikkim 229.9 172
West Sikkim 68.0 -30
Karnataka
Coastal Karnataka
Dakshin Kannada 184.3 -14
Udupi 196.8 -16
Uttar Kannada 129.4 -27
North Interior Karnataka
Bagalkote 8.0 -51
Belgaum 10.9 -65
Bidar 23.8 -48
Bijapur 4.5 -78
Dharwad 7.8 -71
Gadag 6.0 -62
Gulbarga 24.7 -41
Haveri 10.9 -61
Koppal 14.6 -21
Raichur 10.3 -65
Yadgir 19.5 -51
South Interior Karnataka
Bangalore Rural 123.4 347
Bangalore Urban 102.3 219
Bellary 12.4 -35
Chamarajnagar 20.2 54
Chichballapur 68.0 198
Chickmagalur 53.5 -53
Chitradurga 1.9 -84
Davangere 3.9 -82
Hassan 12.1 -60
Kodagu 54.4 -60
Kolar 56.6 175
Mandya 10.2 -10
Mysore 13.7 -5
Ramnagara 48.6 114
Shimoga 66.6 -37
Tumkur 22.5 27
Kerala
Alappuzha 94.4 34
Kannur 88.3 -31
Ernakulam 80.8 -14
Idukki 92.8 -29
Kasaragod 112.0 -26
Kollam 12.5 -76
Kottayam 99.3 15
Kozhikode 87.8 -23
Malappuram 85.2 -9
Palakkad 56.6 -33
Pathanamthitta 82.9 8
Thiruvanantapuram 0.3 -99
Thrissur 92.6 -13
Wyanad 46.3 -65
Tamil Nadu
Chennai 11.0 -67
Coimbatore 11.7 28
Cuddalore 38.6 37
Dharmapuri 65.7 214
Dindigul 45.5 222
Erode 31.4 188
Kanchipuram 60.1 60
Kanyakumari 0.0 -99
Karur 22.8 104
Krishnagiri 66.2 198
Madurai 46.6 182
Nagapattinam 37.1 82
Namakkal 33.4 49
Nilgiris 42.2 -6
Perambalur 29.8 106
Puducherry 103.6 233
Pudukottai 29.1 29
Ramanathapuram 33.2 245
Salem 56.0 115
Sivaganga 32.7 106
Thanjavur 36.9 62
Theni 21.7 164
Tirunelveli 2.5 -49
Tiruvallur 55.8 79
Tiruvannamalai 157.7 400
Tiruvarur 23.3 14
Toothukudi 7.4 118
Trichy 24.4 73
Vellore 72.2 148
Villupuram 55.8 104
Virudhunagar 27.8 136
86 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
Weather Forecast (Valid upto1430 hours of 21
st August, 2011)
Major Feature of Weather Forecast upto1430 hours IST of 21st August, 2011
• Fairly widespread rain/thundershowers would occur over east Uttar Pradesh, east India, northeastern states, Lakshadweep, Andaman & Nicobar Islands and along
west coast.
• Scattered rain/thundershowers would occur over central and adjoining peninsular India during next 24 hours and increase thereafter.
• Isolated rain/thundershowers would occur over remaining parts of the country.
Weather Warning
• Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over Orissa, coastal Karnataka and Kerala during next 48 hours.
• Isolated heavy rainfall would occur over east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal & Sikkim, Assam & Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland, Manipur,
Mizoram & Tripura during next 24 hours.
India 87
Weather Outlook up to 1430 hours IST of 23rd August, 2011
• Fairly widespread rain/thundershowers would occur over Gujarat, west coast and northeastern states.
• Subdued rainfall activity over remaining parts of the country.
Zonewise Agromet Advisories
EAST INDIA [JHARKHAND, BIHAR, ORISSA, WEST BENGAL &SIKKIM]
• Realised Rainfall: Most of the districts of the States of the region received rainfall
during last week.
• Rainfall Forecast: Fairly widespread rain/thundershowers would occur over the
region. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over Orissa during next 48
hours and isolated heavy rainfall would occur over Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal
& Sikkim during next 24 hours.
• Advisories:
� In view of likely occurrence of fairly widespread rain / thundershowers over the States of the region during the period, farmers are advised to postpone irrigation,
intercultural operation and application of plant protection measures and
fertilizers to the standing crops in these States. In view of isolated heavy to very
heavy rainfall over Orissa and isolated heavy rainfall would occur over Bihar,
Jharkhand, West Bengal & Sikkim farmers are advised to arrange for adequate
drainage to avoid water stagnation in the fields.
� In Jharkhand, farmers are advised to complete transplanting of rice within a week using SRI method. Undertake sowing of urd and improved & short
duration varieties of horse gram in upland in Central and North Eastern Plateau
Zone of Jharkhand.
� Farmers in Western Plateau Zone of Jharkhand are advised to continue sowing of kharif crops like rice, maize, groundnut, urd, arhar etc. utilizing monsoon
rain. Prepare the land and undertake sowing / transplanting of kharif vegetables
like bhindi, bean, tomato, French bean, cauliflower, cabbage etc.A good amount
of rain has been occurred during last 4 days and light to heavy rain is also
expected during next four days. Hence, maintain the water level in rice field and
well drained field of different upland crops. � In South Eastern Plateau Zone of Jharkhand, farmers are advised to undertake sowing of
maize, arhar, green gram, black gram and groundnut. Also complete sowing of arhar as
sole crop as well as intercrop with any of the crops like jowar, maize, groundnut,
soybean, urd, moong bean and okra.
� Undertake sowing of arhar, green gram black gram and cowpea, transplanting of rice and planting of mangoes, marigold in Orissa utilizing monsoon rain. Also
undertake sowing of ragi and sesame as the weather is optimum for sowing of
these crops.
� Farmers in West Bengal are advised to undertake sowing of maize, early tomato and cauliflower, transplanting of aman rice in low land and start cultivation of
88 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
mushroom. Drain out excess water from already planted ginger and turmeric
fields in Terai Zone.
� Moderate to heavy rainfall has been forecasted for the next four days in laterite and red soil zone of West Bengal. Farmers are advised to postpone irrigation and
provide drainage facilities to avoid waterlogging. Apply 16:24:8 kg N: P: K per
acre astotal fertilizer & for top dressing apply 16:0:8 N: P: K for composite
variety. for hybrid variety 19:28:10 as total & for top dressing 19:0:9 at 30 DAS
after current spells of rain.
� In New Alluvial Zone of West Bengal, maintain stagnant water (2 to 3 cm) upto 10 days in rice field after transplanting due to realised rainfall. Increase the
depth of stagnant water with age of crop. � Due flooding situation occurred in Coastal Saline Zone then check the drainage system. Farmers are advised to restrict seedling destruction under submerged field
condition. In place of destruction use those seedlings for gap filing in the field.
� Farmers in Old Alluvial Zone of West Bengal are advised to complete transplanting of Kharif rice within this week and maintain 2-3cm depth of water
in the field up to 7-10 days.
� Farmers in the districts of North West Alluvial Plain Zone of Bihar are advised to transplant short duration rice varieties with available rain water and remove
the weeds from the field.
� Farmers in South Bihar Alluvial Zone are advised to undertake transplanting of vegetable crops like brinjal, tomato, chilli and cauliflower on ridges, if seedlings
are ready. This is time for late sowing of arhar, sesame and also for transplanting
of fruit trees. As sowing time of long and medium duration varieties of rice in
the nursery is almost over, short duration varieties of rice should be sown in the
nursery as soon as possible. Farmers are also advised to transplant ready
seedlings of rice through SRI method.
� Suitable varieties of the crops for sowing or transplanting are mentioned in Annexure II.
� In some pockets, of Western Plateau Zone of Jharkhand, rice crops are attacked either by stem borer or leaf eater insects like rice hispa, leaf roller etc., spray
Monocrotophos @ 1.5 ml per litre of water or Chlorpyriphos @ 2 ml per litre of
water during clear weather condition. In the solution of insecticide, mix Tipol or
Sandovit @ 0.5 ml per litre of solution.
� Prevailing weather condition is conducive for attack of tikka/ leaf spot disease in groundnut in Western Plateau Zone of Jharkhand,spray the fungicide Kavach (@
2 gm per litre of water) or Indofil M-45 (5 gm) + Bavistin (1 gm) in 4 litres of
water during clear weather.
� The current weather is favourable for infestation of root rot of pointed gourd. Spray 10 g Plantomycine along with 20 g Blitox 50 in 10 litrevwater. Thrips in
Chilli has been found, spray 300 ml Ethion or 400 ml Carbosulphan/ acre in
Khurda, Keonjhar, Puri, Cuttack, Ganjam, Jagatsingpur and Nayagarh districts
of Orissa.
� Due to prevailing weather there may be aphids and thrips attack in Orissa on maize crop, so apply Dimethoate 30EC @ 400ml/acre and for yellow vein
mosaic virus in arhar, take prophylactic spray to control insect vector with
India 89
Dimethoate @ 300g a. i./ha or Methyl Demeton@ 250g a.i./ha.in Keonjhar and
Mayurbanj districts of Orissa.
� In the less rainfall areas of the North Eastern Plateau Zone of Orissa, in sugarcane crop there is chances of top borer attack, then release Trichogamma
@ 20000/acre for 2-4 times to control the bore and in Jajpur district of North
Eastern Coastal Plane Zone of Orissa, for control of pyrilla spray
Chloropyriphos@ 400 ml/acre in 200 litre of water and for red rot spray
Mancozeb @ 750 gm/acre in 200 litre of water.
� In Old Alluvial Zone of West Bengal, fruit and shoot borer may infestbrinjal in this weather condition. To manage this, spray Lamdacyhalothrin 2.5 EC @ 1.5
ml or Neem oil 2-3ml per litre of water. Also there may be infestation of collar
rot on vegetables; spray Copper oxychloride (Blitox) @4g/ Tricyclazole @0.5g/
Trichodermaviridae @ 4g per litre of water.
� In this weather condition, in New Alluvial Zone of West Bengal, combined attack of downy mildew and mosaic may be seen in bitter gourd and pointed
gourd; apply Redomil –MZ @ 2 g per litre of water.
� Undertake plant protection measures after current spells of rain. � Stages of major crops are mentioned in Annexure I.
• Animal Husbandry
� During this monsoon season there is a chance of black-quarter in Coastal Saline Zone of West Bengal; keep the cattle clean and if this disease occur, promptly
give penicillin and tetracycline and inoculate into the site of lesion. Cattle may
also be attacked by worm infection. Give medicine after testing the stool and
prohibit grazing in the field, keeping them under shade.
� In North Eastern Plateau Zone of Orissa, periodic vaccination viz. FMD, HS and BQ may be carried out to protect the dairy animals. Clean and hygienic water
should be fed to dairy animals. Keep the animal shed clean. RD vaccine should
be given immediately to the chicks which are 7 days old. To prevent coxidiosis
disease spray antibiotic solution named Kohrsolin-TH in the poultry house.
NORTHEAST INDIA [ARUNACHAL PRADESH, NMM&T, ASSAM, MEGHALAYA]
• Realised Rainfall: Most of the districts of Arunachal Pradesh and Assam received
rain during last week.
• Rainfall Forecast: Fairly widespread rain / thundershowers would occur over the
states of this region during next 24 hours. Isolated heavy rainfall is likely to occur
over the States of the region during next 24 hours.
• Advisory
� As most of the districts of Assam and Arunachal Pradesh received rain during last week and also fairly widespread rain / thundershowers would occur over the
states of this region, farmers are advised to postpone irrigation to the crops in
this region. Farmers are also advised to postpone intercultural operations and
application of fertilizer and plant protection measures. In view of occurrence of
90 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
isolated heavy rainfall during next 24 hours, farmers are advised to arrange for
adequate drainage to avoid water stagnation. � In Assam, farmers are advised to continue sowing of pulses, pigeon pea, cauliflower (early varieties), radish and planting of banana and pine apple. Taking the advantage
of adequate rain during last few weeks, farmers are also advised to prepare the land
and undertake transplanting of sali rice. Also start sowing of black gram, brinjal
(early varieties), country bean, Dolichos Bean, marua etc.
� In flood prone areas in Lower Bramhaputra Valley Zone in Assam, farmers are advised to raise nursery seedlings in flood free area or high lands and transplant
at a convenient time.
� In Manipur, for flooded areas, contingency nurseries with late variety / cold tolerant variety RC Maniphou 7 may be raised.
� Farmers in Tripura are advised to undertake preparation of main field and complete transplanting of aman rice.
� Farmers in Arunachal Pradesh are advised to undertake preparation of main field and complete transplanting of rice at the earliest.
� Farmers in Mid Tropical Hill Zone in Nagaland are advised to complete sowing of groundnut, soyabean, pulses and undertake transplanting of rice crop.
� Farmers in the States of the region are advised not to allow the rain water to stand in the maize crop as this crop is highly sensitive to standing water.
� Suitable varieties of the crops for sowing or transplanting are mentioned in Annexure II.
� In Central Bramhaputra Valley Zone in Assam, present situation of alternate drying and wetting condition may favour the occurrence of rotting of leaves and
stems of beetle vine and quick wilt of black pepper. Prophylactic application of
Bordeaux mixture may prevent the spread / outbreak of the diseases.
� In Hill Zone of Assam, there is chance of infestation of rice hispa where the crops are at tillering stage; farmers are advised to monitor the crop and spray
Quinolphos @ 2 teaspoonful / 5 litres of water to control the attack. � In North Bank Plain Zone in Assam, there is chance of attack of gummosis disease on citrus due to heavy rainfall and high relative humidity. Farmers are advised to
clean the affected portion and wash with ‘potash water’. Bordeaux mixture should
be used in affected area. As preventive measure, it is essential to drain out excess
water from the area. The weather is also favourable for pollu beetle grabs in black
pepper, which feed on tender berries; therefore, farmers are advised to apply
Endosalfan 35 EC or Dimmethoate 30 EC @ 1 ml / litre of water against grabs.
� In North Bank Plain Zone in Assam, farmers are advised to drain out the excess water as well as to move kerosene soaked rope over the crop to protect the rice
from the case worm infection.
� In North Bank Plain Zone in Assam, due to water stagnation in root zone, the betel vine may be infected with foot rot and leaf spot diseases. In addition to
keeping the root zone free from water stagnation, apply four drenches (in root
zone) with 1% Bordeaux mixture at 30 days interval and spray (on leaves) 0.5%
Bordeaux mixture at 15 days interval. � In Sub Tropical Hill Zone of Arunachal Pradesh, there is high possibility of infestation
of sheath blight on rice. Farmers are advised to remove collateral hosts from bunds and
spray Spencer / Bavistin @ 2 g / litre of water.
India 91
� In Mizoram, there is chance of infestation of rice stem borer, leaf hopper and plant hopper on rice due to substantial increase in minimum temperature and
evening humidity and an appreciable decrease in sunshine hours with occasional
rainfall; farmers are advised to monitor the crop and to apply Nuvacron /
Monocil 36 SL @ 1020 WG in 400 litre of water per ha. Also, due to prevailing
weather conditions, there is chance of incidence of gummosis in Khasi
Mandarin; farmers are advised to scrap the diseased portion and apply Bordeaux
paste. There is also chance of tikka disease in groundnut due to warm and moist
weather conditions; farmers are advised to burn plant disease debris. In severe
case, foliar spray with Bordeaux Mixture (4:4:50) is recommended.
� Due to hot and humid conditions and high wind speed, there is also chance of sigatoka leaf spot on banana in Mizoram and Tripura; farmers are advised to
apply Mancozeb @ 0.01%. There is also chance of development of tikka disease
in groundnut. To prevent, foliar spray with Bordeaux mixture (4:4:50) is
recommended. In low land, sheath blight may be noticed in rice due to
stagnation of rain water; the disease can be checked by spraying of Bavistin 50
WP @ 200 g or Tilt 25 EC or Monceren 250 SC @ 200 ml in 200 litres of water.
� In Ri-Bhoi, East Khasi and West Khasi hill districts of Meghalaya, there is chance of occurrence of blast disease in rice; farmers are advised to spray
Carbendazim 50 WP @ 1-1.5 g / litre of water. There is chance of wilt in
banana; farmers are advised to drench the field with 1-2 % Bordeaux mixture. � In Nagaland, due to high moisture in the soil, there is chance of stem rot in papaya;
farmers are advised to spray Copper oxychloride @ 3 g / litre of water.
� In Mild Tropical Plain Zone of Tripura, due to the prevailing humid weather, there is chance of attack of gundhi bug and sheath blight in upland rice; farmers
are advised to spray Imidachloprid @ 1.5 ml per liter of water for gundhi bug
and surf @ 1 g per litre of water for sheath blight.
� Apply plant protection measures after current spells of rain. � Stages of major crops are mentioned in Annexure I.
• Animal Husbandry:
� Undertake immunizations against Brucellosis, Foot and mouth disease (FMD), HS, BQ and Anthrax diseases in cattle and buffaloes in Central Bramhaputra
Valley Zone in Assam.
� Farmers in Arunachal Pradesh are advised to avoid dumping excreta and also to undertake deworming with broad spectrum anthelmantic viz., Albendazole,
Fenbendazole etc. Also provide adequate clean water to the pigs throughout the
day in present weather condition.
� Farmers in Manipur are advised to deworm the cattle, sheep, goat etc. and vaccinate against Haemorrhagic Septicemia. It is also advised to vaccinate
poultry birds against Coccidiosis, Ranikhet, Gumboro etc. It is also advised to
deworm and vaccinate pigs with SFV (Swine Fever vaccine).
� In Mizoram, vaccinate and deworm the pigs from swine fever and internal parasite. Avoid dampness to prevent from coccidiosis in poultry. Add
coccidiostats in the poultry feed for prevention of this disease.
92 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
NORTHWEST INDIA [JAMMU & KASHMIR, HIMACHAL PRADESH,
UTTARAKHAND, PUNJAB, HARYANA, DELHI, UTTAR PRADESH & RAJASTHAN]
• Realised Rainfall: Most of the districts of Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh,
Uttarakhand, many districts of Rajasthan, Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, Haryana,
Delhi of this region received rainfall.
• Rainfall Forecast: Fairly widespread rain/thundershowers is likely to occur over
east Uttar Pradesh and isolated rain/thundershowers would occur over remaining
parts of this region. Isolated heavy rainfall would occur over east Uttar Pradesh
during next 24 hours.
• Advisory:
� As most of the districts of Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, many districts of Rajasthan, Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, Haryana, and Delhi received
rainfall during last week, postpone irrigation to the standing crops. Provide
drainage facilities in East Uttar Pradesh as isolated heavy rainfall places is likely
during next 24 hours.
� Farmers are advised to adopt proper drainage to remove stagnant water from standing crops in Uttarakhand due to receipt of excess rainfall during last week.
Application of Urea as top dressing and weeding may be undertaken after
current spells of rain.
� Farmers in Bhabar and Tarai Zone of Uttarakhand are advised to undertake sowing of raddish, transplanting of broccoli and harvesting of matured
frenchbean, tomato, brinjal crops and also fodder grass.
� Farmers in Uttar Pradesh are advised to undertake sowing of vegetables viz. brinjal, chilli, lady’s finger, onion, gourd, bottle gourd, cucumber, toria and new
planting of mango, banana, papaya, banana, amrud, amla and lemon. Give
mechanical support to banana and sugarcane crop to avoid lodging due to wind.
� Farmers in Delhi are advised for hoeing and weeding of standing crops including vegetables. Transplanting of brinjal, tomato, chilli, cauliflower and
cabbage on raised bed may be undertaken and farmers are advised to undertake
transplanting of seedlings. Farmers are also advised to prepare nurseries of
cauliflower for mid season. Transplanting of onion may be undertaken.
Undertake sowing of sarson saag, radish, spinach and coriander.
� Farmers in Punjab and Haryana are advised to start sowing of radish, cauliflower using 250 g seed of mid season varieties. It is the right time for
planting evergreen fruit orchards of citrus, mango, litchi, jamun, guava and
loquat. Apply need based irrigation to sugarcane crop. Provide drain out excess
standing water from cotton, orchards, vegetable and maize field. Irrigation to
rice crop may be withheld as there was sufficient rainfall during last week.
� Continue sowing of sweet potato, Ashwagandha, cowpea, raddish, cauliflower, green gram, moth been, cluster bean in West Rajasthan utilising the realised
rainfall. Farmers are advised to apply first dose of nitrogen in bajra and continue
hoeing and weeding. Farmers are advised to harvest matured pods of cluster
beans.
India 93
� Nursery sowing of early varieties of cauliflower and cabbage may be undertaken in mid hills regions of Himachal Pradesh.
� Farmers in Jammu and Kashmir are advised to undertake sowing/nursery sowing of radish, cabbage and carrot, transplanting of basmati rice, cauliflower, knol
khol and chillies, planting of fruit plants like mango, citrus, litchi, loquat, guava
and papaya. Farmers are advised to undertake top dressing in late transplanted
rice, early sown maize, vegetable crops like bhindi, chillies, pumpkin, sponge
gourd, bitter gourd, bottle gourd, tomato and cauliflower.
� Due to prevailing weather in Himachchal Pradesh, scab and other diseases in apple orchards may appear. Farmers are advised to spray Dithane M- 45(2.0g/L)
as preventive spray on clear day and apply micronutrient in orchards to control
fruit drop problem. Heavy rains are expected in next week so skip irrigation and
ensure proper drainage to flowers beds. Weather is conducive for attack of blue
beetle in roses and balsam, for control spray metacid @ 0.05%.
� In Bhabar and Tarai zone of Uttarakhand, due to heavy rainfall during last week and excess moisture conditions, bacterial leaf blight (BLB) and bacterial leaf
streak diseases are expected in rice. If incidence is more than 10 % then farmers
are advised to spray 200 g Blightox-50 & 6 g streptocycline dissolved in 200
litres of water per acre two times within 10 days.
� Attack of tobacco caterpillar is observed in Narma cotton at some places of Sriganganagr district of Rajasthan. Farmers are advised to install pheromone
traps in the field or use Nuwaluron 10 EC 1.0 ml or Emomectine Benzate 5 SG
0.5 gm per litre. Attack of spotted bollworm is also seen in indeginous cotton,
for control farmers are advised to spray Fenvelrate 20 EC or Indoxacarb 14.5
S.C. 1 ml / litre water.
� In present weather condition in Delhi, constant monitoring for brown plant hopper in paddy field is advised. Farmers are advised to enter into the middle of
the crop field and see mosquito like insect at the basal portion of the plant.
� Farmers in Punjab and Haryana are to monitor the sugarcane crop for pyrilla and whitefly attack on crops. The standing cucurbits should be kept under vigil for
symptoms of blight and spray as per recommendation. There can be
development of anthracnose and blight in chilli after rains. So apply fungicides
as per recommendation.
� Due to presence of congenial weather bristle beetle attack the maize in Jammu & Kashmir, under such situation spray the crop with carbryl @0.1% or
endosulfan @ 0.07%, when weather remains clear.
� In Jammu & Kashmir, stem and root borer may likely to infect the rice crop due to prevailing weather situation under such situation, farmers are advised to apply
Phorat 10G@ 10kg/ha or Carbendazim3G @ 20 kg/ha, when 5% dead hearts or
egg mass/m2.
� Farmers are advised to postpone plant protection sprays in East Uttar Pradesh and continue spraying in the remaining region.
� Spraying may be undertaken after current spells of rain in the region. � Stages of major crops are mentioned in Annexure I.
94 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
• Animal Husbandry
� In some parts of Uttar Pradesh, farmers are advised to protect domestic animals from coming in direct contact with rains. Do not allow water to stagnant in their
sheds. Try to keep their litter dry.
� In Himachal Pradesh, Weather is conducive for spread of FMD and galghotu so, farmers are advised for vaccination of animals against FMD.
SOUTH INDIA [TAMILNADU, ANDHRA PRADESH, KERALA, KARNATAKA,
LAKSHADWEEP, ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS]
• Realised Rainfall: Most of the districts in Kerala except Thiruvananthapuram,
Coastal Karnataka, Bangalore Rural &Urban, Chickballapur, Chickmagalur,
Kodagu, Kolar, Mysore, Ramnagara and Shimoga districts in South Interior
Karnataka, most districts in Coastal Andhra Pradesh except Nellore, Guntur and
Prakasam, Karimnagar, Khammam, Medak, Warangal and Nizamabad in Telangana
and most districts in Tamil Nadu received good rainfall. No significant rainfall
occurred in North Interior Karnataka and the remaining parts of the region.
• Rainfall Forecast: Fairly widespread rainfall is likely in Kerala and Coastal
Karnataka and scattered rainfall is likely in Coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 48
hrs. and increase thereafter. Scattered rain/thundershowers would occur over
remaining parts of peninsular India. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely in
Coastal Karnataka and Kerala during next 48 hours.
• Advisories:
� As there was sufficient rainfall in most of the districts in Kerala except Thiruvananthapuram, Coastal Karnataka, Bangalore Rural & Urban,
Chickballapur, Chickmagalur, Kodagu, Kolar, Mysore, Ramnagara and Shimoga
districts in South Interior Karnataka, most districts in Coastal Andhra Pradesh
except Nellore, Guntur and Prakasam, Karimnagar, Khammam, Medak,
Warangal and Nizamabad in Telangana and most districts in Tamil Nadu, drain
out excess water and postpone irrigation to the crops. Apply irrigation to the
crops in North Interior Karnataka, where there was no significant rainfall.
Provide drainage facilities in Kerala and Coastal Karnataka as heavy rainfall is
expected during next 48 hours.
� Farmers in the Krishna Godavari Zone of Andhra Pradesh are advised to undertake gap filling in cotton, kharif sowing of black gram, green gram, red
gram, cotton and maize etc., utilizing realized rainfall.
� Farmers in the Eastern Dry Zone of Karnataka are advised to go for sowing as light to medium rain is expected in the coming four days and follow ploughing
for better rain water infiltration and other land preparation activities.
� Farmers in the North Dry Zone of Karnataka are advised to take up plant protection measures, harvest the matured green gram crop and continue sowing
of desi cotton, horse gram, maize and sunflower, since light to moderate amount
of rainfall is expected at few places.
India 95
� Farmers in the Southern Dry Zone of Karnataka are advised to undertake sowing of rice, ragi, sugarcane, cotton, sunflower, cowpea, soyabean, horsebeans, gram
and horticulture crops.
� Farmers in North East Dry Zone of Karnataka are advised to undertake intercultivation and hand weeding in early sown pigeon pea and cotton crops.
Harvesting of greengram is to be done carefully as there is forecast of rainfall.
Farmers are advised to continue sowing of pigeon pea in North East Dry Zone of
Karnataka.
� Farmers of North Transition Zone are advised to provide protective irrigation at the critical stages of crops, wherever possible, undertake plant protection
measures to prevent the crop withering from the biotic stress (sucking pests in
cotton and defoliators in groundnut, soybean and other crops.) and uproot and
destroy the heavily infested and infected crops with insects and diseases.
� Farmers in the Coastal Zone of Karnataka are advised to spray the Monocrotophos @ 1.5 ml/lit of water, since late planted paddy crop was infested
with thrips. Due to higher humidity, low temperature and frequent rains, it is
likely that leaf folder may occur on rice. Hence farmers are advised spray
Quinolphos @ 2ml/lit of water. Rotting of nuts and bunches of tree are also
noticed. Hence farmers are advised to spray 1% Bordeaux mixture.
� Farmers in the North Western Zone of Tamil Nadu are advised to go in for late sowing of groundnut after treating the seeds with Trichoderma viridii at a rate of
10 grams for every 1 kg of seed and planted at space of 30 cm between rows and
10 cm between plants as they received rainfall last week.
� As wind speed is high in High Altitude Hilly Zone of Tamil Nadu, wind breaks / shelter belts may be provided in wind prone areas and sowing / planting may be
completed by the end of this month.
� In rainfed areas of southern Telangana zone of Andhra Pradesh, where sowings have not been done, sow castor, sunflower, ragi, horsegram, redgram (close
spacing) and forage crops as contingent crops. Taking advantage of recently
received rains, top dress with urea @ 20-25 kg per acre in rainfed crops like
maize and cotton.
� Due to prevailing weather condition in the Problem areas zone of Kerala, attack of black bug is noticed in different fields. The farmers are advised to keep
regular watch over the fields and if the attack is found, they are advised to drain
off the field completely and consult the agricultural officer.
� Due to cold weather, pest and disease problems are noticed in groundnut, thrips, mites and murda -complex disease in chilli, sucking pest problem and cut worms
in cotton and brown plant hopper in rice. Hence farmers in the North Transition
Zone of Karnataka are advised to undertake precautionary measures to prevent
their attack.
� Due to continuous rain and decrease in temperature rust disease was noticed in soyabean in the North East Transition Zone of Karnataka. To control, spray
Propiconozole or Hexaconozole 1 ml per liter of water. Thrips, aphid and stem
fly were also noticed in greengram/ blackgram. As a control measure spray
Imidachlorprid @ 0.3 ml per litre of water.
96 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
� In Southern Dry Zone of Karnataka, brinjal crop is affected by shoot and fruit borer and turmeric crop by trips insects. Spray carbaril @ 4 gm/lt. of water to
control shoot and fruit borer and Mancozeb @ 2 gm/lts of water to control trips.
In paddy field zinc deficiency was noticed. To overcome this, apply zinc suphate
@ 8 kg/acre without mixing with fertilizer.
� In Kuruvai rice, diseases like bacterial leaf blight and bacterial leaf spot is noticed in Cauvery Delta Zone of Tamil Nadu, due to prevailing weather
condition. To control, apply 1 kg Pseudomonas fluorescence per acre along with
20 kg of FYM or sand in the main filed. There is wide spread occurrence of
black bug. To control the pest, spray Acephate @ 250 gm/acre (or)
Profennophas 400 ml/ acre along with sticking agent in the base of rice crop.
� Monitor thrips and leafhopper infection in cotton, mealybug infection in tapioca and red hairy caterpiller in groundnut in Western Zone of Tamil Nadu and take
the appropriate management measures. Since pod formation is a critical stage,
one or two irrigation is essential for rain-fed sorghum and the farmers are
advised to raise one row of cowpea for every five rows of rainfed groundnut
wherever red hairy caterpillar is endemic.
� Stem borer incidences are found in the paddy field in Southern Zone of Tamil Nadu. Monitor it using the light trap and spray neem oil @ 20 ml/lit or
Azadirachtin @ 3 ml/lit in the morning hours, tie trichogramma card @ 2
cc/acre and in when it reaches above ETL spray profenophos at 2.0 ml/lit of
water or Chlorpyriophos @ 2 ml per litre of water.
� Sucking pests, Helicoverpa, Spodoptera, bud ncerosis and leafminer were noticed in early sown groundnut crop in the Scarce Rainfall Zone of Andhra
Pradesh. To control bud necrosis, spray 1.6 ml monocrotophos or 2 ml
Dimethoate in lit of water and spray Monocrotophos @ 1.6 ml or
[email protected] ml per litre of water to control leaf miner.
� Banded leaf and sheath blight is observed in maize in some districts of Northern Telangana Zone of Andhra Pradesh. As and when the symptoms are noticed,
stripping of the affected bottom 2-3 leaves along with their sheath and spraying
of Propiconazole@ 1 ml/l in endemic areas is recommended.
� Due to prevailing dry weather sucking pest complex (thrips, jassids, mites and whitefly etc.,) occur in pulses and cotton in the Krishna Godavari Zone of
Andhra Pradesh. Farmers are advised to undertake appropriate plant protection
measures.
� Undertake plant protection measures after spells of rain in Kerala, Coastal Karnataka and on a non- rainy day over remaining region.
� Varieties are mentioned in Annexure II.
WEST INDIA [GOA, MAHARASHTRA, GUJARAT]
• Realised rainfall: All districts in Gujarat region and all districts in Saurashtra and
Kutch region except district Porbandar and most of the districts in Konkan &
Vidarbha received significant rain during last week.
• Rainfall forecast: Fairly wide spread rainfall would occur over Konkan and Goa,
Scattered/fairly wide spread rainfall would occur over Vidarbha region. Scattered
India 97
rainfall would occur over Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada. Isolated rainfall
would occur over Saurashtra and Kutch region and isolated/scattered rainfall would
occur over Gujarat region.
• Advisory:
� Farmers are advised to postpone irrigation in Gujarat, Konkan and Vidarbha as there was sufficient rainfall during last week. In view of occurrence of
widespread rain over Konkan and Vidarbha, farmers are advised to postpone
irrigation, application of plant protection measures and fertilizers to the crops.
� Due to deficient rainfall during last fortnight in Marathwada, moisture stress in soyabean, sesamum, niger is reported and infestation of girdle beetle in
soyabean above ETL and infestation of aphids, jassids in cotton, jowar, tur is
noticed below ETL, farmers are advised to provide irrigation and apply
necessary plant protection measures.
� As Ahmednagar, Sangli and Solapur districts of Madhya Maharashtra received deficient rain during last two weeks, farmers are advised to apply irrigation to
standing crop.
� Utilizing monsoon rain, farmers of east Vidarbha region are advised to complete the transplanting of 20 to 22 days old rice seedlings.
� Maintain water level 5 cm by bunding of rice field in Konkan, Kolhapur division and 2-3 cm water level in other. Cleaning of bunds and proper drainage of water
should be done.
� Undertake hoeing and weeding in early sown kharif jowar, soyabean,
groundnut, cotton, bajra, maize to keep the crop weed free, after current spells
of rain in Vidarbha. Earthing up may be completed in 35 to 40 days old
groundnut.
� This is the proper time of planting of all fruit crops in Konkan and Kolhapur division.
� As prevailing weather is favourable, farmers of Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada are advised to complete planting of adsali sugarcane.
� In Vidarbha zone, for better growth of cotton boll and control of red leaf in cotton, spray Magnesium Sulphate 1 kg + DAP @ 4 kg/acre. Spray 2% Urea or
DAP at flowering stage on soyabean in East Vidarbha.
� Farmers in Bhal and Coastal Zone of Gujarat are advised to complete sowing of castor up to 25th August to protect the crop from the castor semi lopper. Carry
out transplanting of vegetables and plantation of horticulture crops.
� Farmers in South Gujarat Zone are advised to apply first spray of 2% DAP solution in greengram and blackgram at flowering stage and second spray after
15 day of first spray.
� Farmers in South Gujarat Heavy Rainfall Zone are advised to apply remaining half dose i.e. 40 kg Nitrogen by using Ammonium Sulphate.
� Farmers in North Gujarat Zone are advised to carry out transplanting of different horticultural crops and complete transplanting of vegetable crops. Also avoid the
water stagnate condition in low land areas.
� Farmers in South Saurashtra Zone of Gujarat are advised for sowing of pigeon pea between two rows of groundnut crop in relay cropping and for sowing of
98 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
castor. Also apply second dose of fertilizers @ 40 kg N/ha (88 kg urea/ha or 200
kg Ammonium Sulphate per ha) after vapsa condition in cotton crop.
� Due to receipt of sufficient rainfall in Middle Gujarat Zone, farmers are advised not to irrigate the crops, avoid spraying of insecticide/pesticides, avoid
application of fertilizers. Also prepare land for transplanting of Tobacco crop.
� Suitable varieties of the crops for sowing are mentioned in Annexure II. � Due to prevailing weather there is mild incidence of leaf cater pillar and spodoptera in soyabean in Sangli District, spray Quinolphos 25%@20 ml or
Chloropyriphos 220EC@20 ml in 10 litres water.
� Due to subdued rain, there may be incidence of leaf folder and blue beetle in rice in Konkan, for control of leaf folder spray Monocrotophos @ 12 ml /10 litres of
water and for control of blue beetle spray Monocrotophos 36WSC @ 14 ml or
Carbaryl 50 WP @ 20 g or Cypermethrin 25 EC @ 2.4 ml/10 litres of water or
dust 2% Methyl Parathion dust @ 20 kg/ha. Under prevailing weather there may
be incidence of army worm in rice in East Vidarbha, spray Cypermethrin 10%@
6 ml in 10 litres water or dust Methyl parathion dust 2%(20 kg/ha) in the
evening.
� Due to favourable weather, infestation of sap sucking pest (aphids, jassids, thrips) may increase in cotton in Central Vidarbha zone, if infestation exceeds
ETL (10 pests/ leaf) spray Dimethoate 30%@ 10 ml or Methyl Dimeton 25%
@8 ml in 10 litres water. Due to continues cloudy weather there may be
infestation of white fly, aphids and jassids in western Maharashtra scarcity zone,
spray Acitamiprid@4 g+ sticker in 10 litres water.
� Due to prevailing weather there may be incidence of downy mildew and powdery mildew in vegetables in Ratnagiri, Raigad and Thane district, spray
Dithane M-45 or Dithane Z-78 each @ 2.5 g/lit of water at an interval of 10 to
15 days.
� Due to cloudy weather there may be more infestation of thrips in onion in western Maharashtra scarcity zone, spray Carbosulfan@10 ml or Deltamethrin
@20 ml/ 10 litres water at 10 to 15 days interval.
� Due to light rain there may be incidence of shoot fly in jowar in Marathwada region, spray Quinolphos @20 ml in 10 litres water.
� There is infestation of mealy bug on branches, leaf and fruit of custard apple in Pune division, spray Imidacloprid or Thiamethoxam or Colathianidin @3 g/10
liter water.
� Due to cloudy weather condition, there is a chance of downey mildew in pearl millet and maize. Farmers in Middle Gujarat Zone are advised to spray
Carbendazim 3g/litre.
� There is a possibility of occurrence of hoppers and tip burn in mango in South Gujarat Heavy Rainfall Zone. Farmers are advised to spray Carbaryl (4gm/lt)
and wettable Sulphur (3gm/lit) respectively.
� To control leaf curl virus spread by thrips in chillies, farmers in South Gujarat Heavy Rainfall Zone are advised to spray the crop with Imedachlopride 2.8 ml
or Carbaryl 50 % WP 40 gm in 10 liter water.
� Stages of major crops are mentioned in Annexure I.
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• Animal Husbandry
� Protect animals by sheltering them in safer places in Gujarat. � Provide green fodder and cool water for drinking. Vaccination should be done to animals (cows, buffaloes and sheep) against foot and mouth disease and to sheep
against P.T.R. disease under the guidance of veterinary doctors. Protection
should be given to dairy / farm animals, sheep, goat and poultry birds from
heavy rains and cold winds. Do not allow to store water in animal shed. Pits in
cattle shed should be filled with soil.
CENTRAL INDIA[MADHYA PRADESH, CHHATTISGARH]
• Realised Rainfall: Sufficient rain occurred in most of the districts in Madhya
Pradesh and Chattisgarh
• Rainfall Forecast: Scattered rainfall is likely during next 24 hours over the region
and widespread rain/thundershowers would occur over thereafter.
• Warning: Isolated heavy rainfall would occur over East Madhya Pradesh and
Chhattisgarh after 48 hours.
• Advisory:
� As there was good rainfall in most of the districts in Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh during last week, postpone irrigation to the crops. Arrange for
drainage facilities in the crop fields as isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall
would occur over Madhya Pradesh during next 48 hours.
� Due to excess rainfall occurred during last week, farmers in Jhabua Hill Zone are advised to prepare proper drainage system for drainage of excess water in
the field to escape the crops from water lodging condition. Runoff water
diverted to the recharging structure so rain water is store and the water lavel is
improved.
� Farmers in Jhabua Hill Zone of Madhya Pradesh are advised to carry out transplaning of fruit plants like mango, guava, anola, citrus, chickoo and
pomegranate etc.
� Farmers in Malwa Plateauand KymorePlateau and Satpura Hill Zones are advised for transplanting of tomato, brinjal and chilly.
� Farmers in Vindya Plateau, Central Narmada Valley and Gird Zone of Madhya Pradesh are advised for proper drainage of water in field of soyabean, arhar, til,
jowar and maize.
� Farmers in Central Narmada Valley Zone are advised to prepare nursery for cabbage and cauliflower and transplant of fruit plants i.e. Papaya, Guava and
Mango.
� In Chattisgarh Plain Zone, farmers are advised to undertake biasi operation of direct seeded rice wherever sufficient moisture is available. After biasi operation
SaghanChalai should be done at the earliest.
� Due to sufficient rainfall in Bastar Plateau Zone of Chattisgarh, oilseed and pulses crops like urad, horsegram (Kulthi), niger (ramtil), moong (greengram)
and urad (blackgram) crops may be sown in upland marhan situation.
100 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
� Due to prevailing weather, thrips, insects, blast disease and Brown spot disease are affecting the rice crop in Dantewara and Bijapur district of Chattisgarh,
spray Profenophos or Dimethoate 2:1 mls in one litre of water for thrips, Beam
or Baan1 gms./ litre of water for blast and Furadon, Chlorpyriphos or
Carbofuran 3 G 10-12 Kg./ acre for brown spot.
� Due to prevailing weather in Narayanpur and Bastar district of Chattisgarh, it is being observed that attack of insect-pests and diseases is enhanced. In this
particular situation, farmers shouldn’t use the fertilizers and bunds should be
properly cleaned. The control measures should be adopted accordingly.
� Due to water logging in plant nursery beds in Malwa Plateau Zone of Madhya Pradesh, fungal attack in plant nurseries may be there, so avoid water logging by
providing drainage and if attack is there apply fungicide.
� Weather is congenial for blue beetle on soyabean in Madhya Pradesh, spray Prophenophos@ 2 litre per ha or Monocrotophos 1.5 litre per ha.
� Weather is congenial for semi lopper in the soybean crop in Bundelkhand Zone of Madhya Pradesh, farmers are advised to spray Quinolphos 25 E.C. @ 2.0 ml
per litre of water. Also there is possibility of attack of yellow mosaic in soybean,
urd, moong crops; If found, spray of Methyl dameton 2.0 ml. orEmedachloprid
1/2 ml. perlitre of water for their control.
� Weather is congenial for attack of girdle beetle in Central Narmada Valley Zone in soybean of Madhya Pradesh, spray Trizophos 0.75 lit/ha or Quinolphos
0.75lit/ha
� Spray chemicals after spells of rain in the region. � Stages of major crops are mentioned in Annexure I.
• Animal Husbandry & Poultry
� Provide the animal’swith clean water, balance and nutrients rich food. etc. in Malwa Plateau Zone of Madhya Pradesh. Also vaccination in Goats and other
cattle’s. Ensure vaccination to protect animals from infections/diseases like
Black Quarter and FMD etc.
� Humid weather condition is prevailed in Kymore Plateau and Satpura Hill Zone hence keep cattle’s in dry and clean place. Also create neem leaves smoke in
night to save them from mosquitoes and bees. Arrange for vaccination for Foot
and Mouth disease, and anthrax. Use potassium permanganate @ 5 ml per liter
of water for infected animals.
� In Budelkhand Zone of Madhya Pradesh, four to five hours bulb light should be provided in the poultry houses during night on account of likelihood of clouds
and shortened photoperiod in this week. Farmers are advised to prevent the goat
form wetting in rain and also do the vaccination against P.P.R to Goats. Also use
new liter material in the poultry houses like saw dust, wheat straw to avoid
excessive moisture. Provide de-worming to the calf of dairy animals and keep
on dry and clean shade.
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Annexure I Major Crops
EAST INDIA [JHARKHAND, BIHAR, ORISSA, WEST BENGAL &SIKKIM]
� Sugarcane (early vegetative / vegetative), rice, kharif maize, kharif arhar, sesame, sorghum, jowar, lobia for green fodder, mishrikand (sowing / vegetative), onion,
radish (sowing), cauliflower and fruit trees (transplanting) in Bihar.
� Sugarcane (early vegetative / vegetative), papaya (transplanting), turmeric, ginger, elephant foot yam (vegetative / tuber development stage), rice (transplanting/
vegetative), rainy season vegetables like bhindi, bean, tomato, french bean,
cauliflower, cabbage etc. (vegetative / flowering / fruiting), maize, pigeon pea, urd,
moong bean, groundnut( vegetative) and sweet potato (transplanting / vegetative)in
Jharkhand.
� Arhar and maize (sowing / early vegetative), papaya, marigold, tuberose (planting), cowpea (sowing / early vegetative), kharif vegetables (sowing / vegetative),
sugarcane (vegetative), kharif rice (transplanting / tillering), groundnut (sowing /
early vegetative), chrysanthemum, ragi (sowing / vegetative), turmeric and ginger
(planting / early vegetative), yam (sowing), sesamum, green gram, black gram, niger
(sowing / early vegetative), mango, banana, lemon, cashew nut, marigold(planting)
in Orissa.
� Aman rice (transplanting / tillering), tomato, cauliflower (nursery preparation /
transplanting), aus rice (tillering), kharif maize (sowing / tillering), jute (vegetative /
harvesting), mango, coconut, guava, banana (planting) and kharif vegetables
(sowing / planting / vegetative / fruiting) in West Bengal.
� Large cardamom (capsule formation / transplanting of suckers from nursery/grain maturity;), kharif vegetables (harvesting), orange (fruiting.), ginger (germination /
early vegetative), rice (early tillering), maize (harvesting), seed potato (tuberization)
in Sikkim.
NORTHEAST INDIA [ARUNACHAL PRADESH, NMM&T, ASSAM, MEGHALAYA]
• Sugarcane (active vegetative), ahu rice (flowering / grain formation / ripening), sali rice (transplanting / tillering), olitorius jute (maturity / harvesting / retting),
Capsularis jute, (harvesting / retting / fibre extraction), maize (vegetative), sesame,
groundnut (early vegetative / vegetative), arhar, pigeon pea, raddish, cauliflower and
brinjal (early variety) (sowing / early vegetative) and jute (for seed production)
(early vegetative), ginger / turmeric (vegetative), black / green gram (sowing /
vegetative), banana (planting), cowpea (sowing / vegetative) and khasi mandarin
(sowing / vegetative) in Assam.
• Rice (nursery preparation / transplanting / tillering), tuber crops (vegetative), soyabean and groundnut (vegetative) and maize (tasseling / silking /cob formation /
maturity / harvesting) in Arunachal Pradesh.
• Soyabean (flowering / pod formation), groundnut (pod formation), kharif rice (transplanting / tillering), ginger and turmeric (vegetative / rhizome formation), early
cauliflower (transplanting), tomato (nursery raising), lemon (fruiting / harvesting) in
Manipur.
102 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
• Ahu rice (panicle initiation / flowering / grain filling), arhar (sowing / vegetative),
vegetables (vegetative / flowering / fruiting / maturity), sali rice (transplanting /
tillering), early cauliflower and cabbage (transplanting / vegetative), ginger and
turmeric (rhizome formation), Khasi mandarin (flowering / fruiting), banana
(vegetative) in Meghalaya.
• Rice (transplanting / tillering), kharif maize (tasseling / silking / cob formation), groundnut (flowering), soyabean (vegetative / flowering), okra (sowing /
vegetative), ginger and turmeric (planting / vegetative), khasi mandarin (new
planting / vegetative / fruiting), French Bean, rice bean, urd and moong bean
(vegetative / flowering / pod formation), banana (vegetative / fruiting), cucurbits
(sowing / vegetative) in Mizoram.
• Soyabean (flowering), groundnut, green gram and black gram (sowing / vegetative), rice (transplanting), maize (cob formation / maturity), okra (flowering / fruiting),
lowland rice (transplanting), banana (fruiting), colocasia (flowering) and papaya
(transplanting) in Nagaland.
• Aus or kharif rice (panicle initiation / flowering / grain formation), aman rice
(transplanting / early tillering), upland / jhum rice (flowering / milk), cucurbits and
other vegetables (flowering / fruiting), maize (tasseling / silking / cob formation) and
sesame (vegetative / flowering / pod formation) in Tripura.
NORTHWEST INDIA [JAMMU & KASHMIR, HIMACHAL PRADESH,
UTTARAKHAND, PUNJAB, HARYANA, DELHI, UTTAR PRADESH & RAJASTHAN]
• Tomato, chilli, paddy (transplanting/early vegetative), brinjal & cucurbits crops (flowering/fruiting), lentil (pod formation), maize, hybrid cluster bean, baby corn,
Pigeon pea (sowing/ vegetative), green gram and black gram, cotton (sowing),
Sugarcane(sowing) in Delhi.
• Vegetables (flowering / fruiting / harvesting), garlic, ginger (planting), bhindi, (transplanting), cucurbits (transplanting), Khira, summer squash, bitter gourd, tur,
brinjal, Shimla mirch, and tomato (transplanting), Apple (fruit
development/maturity), pomegranate (fruit development), ginger, arbi, amaranthus,
turmeric, rice, maize (sowing/transplanting) in Himachal Pradesh.
• Berseem (vegetative), cucurbits (vegetative / flowering/maturity), onion (seed bed preparation), capsicum, chilli, brinjal (nursery sowing / transplanting), raddish,
carrot, turnip, cauliflower, cabbage, broccoli (sowing / transplanting), kharif fodder
viz. maize, jowar, bajra, cowpea (growth / harvesting), early sown maize (initiation
of tassel emergence / grain development), maize (vegetative / silking), kharif pulses,
moong, mash (flowering / pod development), rice (tillering/panicle initiation),
Kharif oilseed like groundnut, sunflower, summer brassica etc. ( vegetative/
flowering / seed development), orchards (apple-fruit development and pear –
maturity) in Jammu & Kashmir.
• Chilli, capsicum (transplanting), tomato (vegetative/maturity/harvesting) and lahi (flowering / fruiting), sugarcane (planting), rice (tillering/ panicle initiation), litchi,
loquat, peach, citrus (flowering / fruiting), mango (early varieties) (flowering),
maize (cob formation), foxtail millet, okra, bottle gourd, bitter gourd, ginger,
India 103
turmeric, soyabean (sowing / planting), sorghum, pigeon pea, urd and pearl
millets(sowing) in Uttarakhand.
• Spring sugarcane (sprouting), berseem (vegetative), vegetables(fruiting), sugarcane
(germination/tillering), pulses (seedlings), cotton (ball initiation), okra
(sowing/vegetative), rice (sowing/transplanting), maize (knee height stage) in
Punjab.
• Sugarcane (spring season) (planting/emergence/early vegetative), barseem (vegetative), pulses, moong, mash, pigeon pea (sowing), rice (transplanting/tillering)
in Haryana.
• Rice (Transplanting), winter sugarcane (vegetative growth / formative), summer sugarcane (initial growth / formative stage), cucurbits like gourd, bittle gourd,
cucumber, etc. and another vegetables like lady’s finger, tomato, brinjal, chilli etc.
(sowing / flowering/fruiting), black gram, baby corn/ maize / fodder maize,
vegetables (vegetative/flowering/fruiting), groundnut, jowar, bajra, til, moong, urd,
moong, lobia (early vegetative), arhar (sowing /early vegetative), tomato, brinjal,
cabbage (sowing) in Uttar Pradesh.
• Rice (nursery sowing/transplanting), narma cotton, desi cotton (flowering / boll formation in Sriganganagar), sweet potato(sowing), pearl millet, sorghum, maize,
soybean, chilli, moong, cowpea, urd, sorghum and cluster bean (sowing) in
Rajasthan.
SOUTH INDIA [TN, AP, KERALA, KARNATAKA, LAKSHADWEEP, ANDAMAN &
NICOBAR ISLANDS]
• Kuruvai rice (panicle initiation/flowering), cotton (vegetative to flowering), vegetables (nursery / transplanting/ fruiting), sugarcane (vegetative/ grand
growth/maturity), groundnut (vegetative/ flowering / peg formation/ pod
development/maturity), maize (vegetative/flowering/harvest/), sorghum (vegetative),
black gram (flowering/ harvest), green gram (harvest) in Tamil Nadu.
• Sugarcane (ratooning/vegetative), cotton (sowing / vegetative), hybrid jowar, maize, ragi, sugarcane, sunflower, groundnut, red gram and horticulture crops (vegetative)
in Karnataka. Early sown crops are at early vegetative stage.
• Maize (Sowing to seedling stage), jowar, cotton (vegetative), sugarcane and pulse crops like green gram (vegetative), red gram(vegetative), rice (nursery /
transplanting stage), groundnut (Early sown- pod initiation & development
stage/Late sown crop - flowering stage/ vegetative), in Andhra Pradesh.
• Virippu rice (tillering/panicle initiation/flowering) and black pepper (berry
development), ginger (vegetative), turmeric and vegetable crops (flowering to
harvesting stage) Mundakan rice (sowing/transplanting) in Kerala.
WEST INDIA [GOA, MAHARASHTRA, GUJARAT]
• Sugarcane (new adsali - planting / old adsali - grand growth), sugarcane (pre-seasonal) (vegetative), sugarcane (suru) (early vegetative), Kharif rice (early
tillering in Konkan, Kolhapur, Pune, Nashik Division and transplanting in East
Vidarbha), jowar (vegetative ), soyabean (flowering/ pod formation in Kolhapur
division and branching/ flowering in other division), groundnut ( vegetative /
104 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
flowering ), cotton (vegetative), red gram (early vegetative) and green gram
(flowering / pod formation).
• Kharif bajra (vegetative), vegetables (transplanting / vegetative), sugarcane
(vegetative), groundnut (vegetative / flowering / pegging), kharif pulses (sowing /
germination / vegetative), cotton (vegetative / flowering), rice (seedling /
transplanting) in Gujarat.
CENTRAL INDIA[M.P., CHHATTISGARH]
• Sugarcane (vegetative), vegetables (flowering and fruiting), moong, urad, maize, soybean, sesame, groundnut, jowar groundnut, pigeon pea, kharif onion, brinjal,
tomato and chillietc.(sowing), rice (transplanting) in Madhya Pradesh.
• Rice (seedling / tillering), sugarcane (planting), maize (flowering), groundnut, arhar, green gram and sesame (sowing), ginger, turmeric, papaya, mango and guava
(planting) in Chhattisgarh.
India 105
Annexure II List of Varieties
Orissa
Arhar: Early duration- Prabhat, Upas-120, ICPL-86012, ICPL-87.
Medium duration - Asha, Visakha, DA-11, C-11 etc.
Papaya: Honey Dew, Kurg Honey Dew, Co-1, Co-2, Pusa Delicious, Pusa Majestic, Pusa
Dwarf and Pusa Giant.
Cow pea: Bush type – PusaPhalguni, PusaKomal, SEB-2, PusaBarsati.
Runner type – American Long and Banarasi Long.
Other improved varieties – Russian Giant, EC-4316, NP-3, C-152, UPC-286,
UPC-5286 and IGFI-450.
Okra: Improved high yielding varieties – UtkalGourav, ArkaAnamika, Uphar,
ParvaniKranti.
Hybrid varieties – Varsa, Vijay, Vishal, Tara, Adhunik, Atyadhunik and Supriya.
Bitter gourd: PusaDomousumi, Coimbatore Long Green and ArkaHarit.
Ridge gourd: PusaNajdar, Jaypur Long and any local variety.
Cluster bean: PusaNaubahar.
Ginger: Suprava, Suruchi, Surabhi.
Turmeric: Roma, Surama, Rang, Rashmi etc.
Maize: Navjot, Shakti, Decan-107, Decan-109.
Rice: Extra early – Kaling-3.
Early – Khandagiri, Bandana, Pathara, Parijat, Annada, Jogesh, Siddant.
Medium – Pratikshya, Manaswini, Tapaswini MAS, Konark, Kharavela, Naveen,
Abhisek, Lalat, MAS MTU-1001, MTU-1010, Konark, Gajapati, Surendra, Lalat.
Late - CR-1009, CR-1018, Swarna (MTU-7029), Indravati, Mahanadi, Puja,
Ramachandi, Kanchana, Sarala, Lunishree, Ranidhan, Mrinalini, RGL-2837,
Ketakijoha, Moti, Padmini, Kanchana, Mahanadi, Jagabandhu.
Fine - CR-1014, BPT-5204.
Flash flood areas - Swarna Sub-1.
Yam: Shreekirti, Shreerupa, Hatikhoj, Shreeshilpi; small yam – Shreelata, Shreekala.
White yam: Shreesubhra, Shreepriya, Shreedhanya.
Groundnut: Ak-12-24, TG-3, TG- 38, TMV 2, ICGS -11, JL-24 and Smruti for oil.
Ragi: Divyasingh, AKP-2, AKP-3, AKP-7, Godavari, Neelachal, Bhairavi, Shubhra and
Chilika.
Chrysanthemum: Yellow - Chandrama, Kiku, Biory, Super Giant and Evening Star.
White - Snow Ball, Inoscence and Premier.
Red - Brave, Rustic, Alfred and Wilson.
Sesamum: Kanaka, Kalika, Vinayak, Uma, Prachi, Tilottama, Nilima.
Green gram: K-851, PDM-11, PDM-54, OUM-11-5.
106 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
Black gram: T-9, Pant U-11, Pant U-19, Pant U-30.
Niger: Deomali, Niger-1.
Cashew nut: BPP-4, Bhubaneswar-1, VRI-2, Hybrid 2-17.
Banana: Dwarf Cavendis, Robusta, G-9, Tissue cultured Banana – Hampa, Patakpura,
Bantal and Kabuli.
Mango: Baiganpalli, Totapuri, Bombay green, Suvarnarekha, Neelam, Himsagar, Langra,
Dusheri, Amrapalli, Mallika, Ratna, Sindhu, Alphanso, Keshar etc.
Lemon: Ureka, Lisbon, Bhillafranka of lemon and Kagazilembu, Mexican lime, Sarbati lime
and Tahita of lime.
Marigold: Giant Ball, African Yellow, Giant Ball African Orange, Early Yellow, Early
Orange, Serakola, Africut, Sun Giant, Crown Of Gold, Spun Gold and Cuprid Yellow.
West Bengal
Aman rice: Upland situation (110-120 days): Rasi, Khitish, Bhupen, CST-7-1, PNR-519, Kunti, Ajaya,
CSR-6.
Shallow low land (130-140 days): ManasSarovar, MTU-7029 (SwarnaMasuri), MTU-1001,
MTU-1010, Naveen, IET-5656.
Semi deep water (150-160 days): Jogen, Sabita, Purnendu, Amulya, CR-1009, CR-1018,
Sarala.
Banana: Mortoman, Chapa, Kathali, Singapuri.
Jharkhand
Turmeric: RajendraSona.
Ginger: Burdwan and Nadia.
Elephant foot yam: Gajendra.
Maize: Birsa-1, Birsa Vikas-1, Suhan-1, Suwan Composite 1 (100 days) and hybrid variety
– HQPM 1 (100 days), composite variety – BirsaMakka 1 (80-85 days) and hybrid variety -
Kanchan (80-85 days), BirsaVikashMakka 2 (70-80 Days).
Rice: Swarna (MTU 7029), Rajshree, BPT 5204 (SambhaMahsuri), Birsamati and for hybrid
rice – Proagro or Arize 6444; for medium land rice – IR 36, 64, Lalat, Naveen, Sahbhagi,
BR 10, Kanak, RajendraDhan 202, Sugandha, BirsaVikashSugandhDhan 2,
BirsaVikashDhan 203; Birsamati, early duration varieties – Vandana, Lalat, BirsaDhan 108,
109, 110.
Horse gram: Birsa Kulthi-1 (95 days), G.H.G.-20 (75 days).
Urd: T 9, Pant U 19, 30, 35 and Birsa Urd 1.
Moong bean: Pusa Vishal, SML 668, K 885, PS 16, Pant Moong 2 and PDM 11.
Pigeon pea: BirsaArhar (210 days), Bahar (240 days) and ICPH 2671 (210 days).
Finger millet: Birsa Marua 2, A 404 and GPU 45, 47.
Groundnut: AK12-24, BirsaMoongfali 1,2, 3 and bold type – Birsa Bold (BAU 13).
Sweet Potato: Birsa Sakarkand-1 and Sri Bhadra.
Sesame: KankeSafed and Krishna.
Horse Gram: Birsa Kulthi-1 (95 days), G.H.G.-20.
India 107
Bihar
Rice: Mansuri, RajendraMansuri, NataMansuri, RajendraSweta, Santosh, Rajshree, Satyam,
Pankaj, Swarna (MTU 7029), Sita, Kank and IR-36.
Short duration varieties: Pusa 2-21, IR-36, Saket-4, Prabhat and photosensitive tall local
varieties like Katarni, Kamini, Sugandha, TulsiMunjari.
Kharifmaize: Shaktiman 2, Shaktiman 3, Shaktiman 4 and Deoki.
Scented rice: Sugandha, Kamani, RajendraSuwasani and RajendraKasturi.
Mishrikand: RajendraMisrikand 1.
Onion: N-53, Agrifound Dark Red and Baswant 780.
Tomato: DBRT-2, ArkaVikash, PusaGaurav, Labonita, Marglov, Punjab Kesri, Sweet 72,
Pant Bahar and hybrid varieties such as Vaishali, Rupali, Navin, Ratna, ARTH-3.
Brinjal: Rajendra Baigan-2, Rajendra Annapurna, Pant Baigan, PusaAnmol, Pusa Purple
Long, ArkaNavneet, Pusa Hybrid-5.
Radish: PusaChetki, PusaDeshi, PusaHimani, PusaReshmi, JapaniSafed, ArkaNishant.
Cauliflower: Kuwari, Patna Early, PusaKatki, PusaDipali, HajipurAgaat.
Pointed gourd:RajendraParwal 1, RajendraParwal 2, F.P. 1, F.P. 3.
Assam
Sali rice: Long duration: Monohar Sali, Andrew Sali, Gitesh.
Short duration: Luit, Kapili, Kolong, Dishang.
Others: Jalashree, Jalkuwari, Plaban.
Arhar: T-21.
Early cauliflower: Early Kunwari, Pusa Deepali, Pusa Katki.
Green gram: T-44, Kopergaon, K-851, ML-56, ML-131.
Black gram: SB 121 (Saonia Mah), T-9, T-27, Pant U-19, T-122, KU 301, USJD 113, T 9,
T27.
Radish: Pusa Desi, Pusa Himani, Pusa Chetki.
Cowpea: RC 19, TVX-944-02E.
Dolichos Bean : Pusa Early Profile and SD-18.
Meghalaya
Arhar: T-21.
Manipur
Rice: RC Maniphou 7.
Delhi
Hybrid cluster bean: Pusa Komal, Pusa Sukamol,
Baby corn: HM-4.
Sugarcane: Karan-1, Karan-2, Co-64, and Co-1496.
Late varieties of Cotton: H-777, H-974, H-1098.
Pigeonpea - Pusa 2001, Pusa991, Pusa992, Paras manak, UPAS 120.
Soybean: Pusa-9712, Pusa-9814, and Pusa-16.
108 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
Fodder Sorghum: Pusa chari-9, Pusa chari-6.
Himachal Pradesh
Cauliflower: Sweta,Madhuri
Capsicum green: California wonder, Mahabharat, Capsicum yellow : US 616
Cucumber: Kiyan
Summer squash: hybrid green
Lettuce: Iceberg
Brinjal : Arka Nidhi, PPC
Ageti bhindi : P-8, Prabhini kranti, Arka anamika
Frenchbean : Contender
Pepper : Surjmukhi
Brocolli: Palam Samridhi
Rajmash : Triloki,Jwala,baspa Kailash
Jammu & Kashmir
Rice : Jaya, RR-8585, IET-1410, Ratna,PC-19, GS-2, mansar, trikuta, C-5 and C-8
Direct sowing : Jaya, RR-8585, PC-19, IET-1410 and Ratna, Basmati-370, Sanwal Basmati,
Local Basmati (Ranbir)
Brinjal : PPL, PPC & PPR
Raddish: Japanese white
Carrot: . Nantes and Pusa Yamdagini
Turnip : Purple Top White Globe
Chillies : NP-46A, Pusa jawala
Maize : var.GS-2, mansard, trikuta, C-5 and C-8, GS-2, Super composite, Mansar, C-6, C-8
and Local
Pulses: Mash: Pant U-19, Moong: PDM-54, ML-131 and ML-818.
Groundnut: Punjab no.1, M-13 and JL-24,
Bajra:WCC-75, ICMS-7703 and Hybrid M.H.B-110,
Til: Punjab Til-1.
Cabbage: GA, POI
Punjab
Paddy : Pusa Basmati 1, Pusa 1121, Punjab Basmati 2, Punjab Mehak and Super Basmati
during these days and Basmati 370 and Basmati 386, PAU 201, PR 120, PR 118, PR 116,
PR 114, PR 113, PR 111, PR 115 etc.
Okra : Punjab 7 / Punjab 8
Radish : Punjab Ageti, Pusa Chetk
Haryana
Baisakhi Mung: K851 and Type 44 and Muskan
Pigeon pea: UPAS 120, T-21.
India 109
Uttar Pradesh
Arhar : T-7, Amar, Bahar, Narendra Arhar-1, Azad, Malaviya -13, Pusa-9.
Maize : Tarun, Navin, Kanchan,Sweta, Navjyoti, Ganga-1 and 2, Duccan-107.
Moong : Pant Moong-1, Pant Moong-2, Pant Moong-3, Pant Moong-4, P.D.M.-11,
P.D.M.-54, Narendra Moong-1, Samrat, K.M.-2241, K.M.-1995.
Vegetables: Pumpkin: Azad pumpkin-1, Narendra pumpkin-1,
Gourd: Kalyanpur Lambi Hari, Pusa Meghdoot, Taroi- Kalyanpur Chikni, Pusa Chikni,
Bitter gourd: Baramasi, Narendra Baramasi,
Cucumber – Kalyanpur Hara
Lady’s finger – Azad Bhindi-1,2, Parmani, Kranti, Pusa Sawani, Vaishali, Selection-1
Brinjal : Azad-1 type-3, Pusa purple log, Azad Baingan gol, Kranti
Onion : N-53, AG found Dark Red, Arka Kalyan.
Lobia: Improved varieties T & 5269, T&2, UPC & 4200, Pusa Komal, 5269
Lobia: for green fodder : Russian jaint, U.P.C.-5286, Bundel Lobia-1, B.P.C.-9202.
Mango: early var.: Bambai Hara, Gopal Bhog, Medium var.:Dabhahari, Langada, Lucknow
Safeda, late var.: Chouda, Amrapali, Mallika, Swarn Rekha.
Banana: Dwarf Kovindis, Basrai Dwarf, for vegetables purpose: Hari chhal.
Pappaya: Pusa Delecius, Pusa Mejestry, Pusa Dwarf, Pusa joint, C.O.-1,2,3.
Amrud: Lucknow-49, Alahabadi Safeda, Banarasi Surkh, Chittidar, Apil colour,
Arkamrudula
Awala: Chakaiya, Krushna, Kanchan, Narendra Awala-6,7, Lakshmi-52
Lemon: Kagji gol, Hybrid-2
Uttarakhand
Maize : Ganga-2, Ganga-7, African Tall, Ganga-5, Pusa Hybrid-1, Pusa Hybrid-2 and
Composite varieties like Gaurav, Amar or Surya, Him, Ganga Makka-9, Ganga Makka-11
Lobia : Russian Joint, EC-4216, UPC-5286 etc.
Okra : VL Bhindi-1
Soyabean : Brag, PK-262, VL Soya-2, VL Soya 21, VL Soya-47, pant soya-1042, 1092 and
PRS-1
Gahat :VLG-1
Ugal : VL-7, PRB-1
Urd : Pant Urd-19, Pant Urd-30. Pant Urd-31 or Pant Urd-35
Cabbage: GA, POI
Rajasthan Rice : JC152(90 to 95 days), JC5(100 to 110 days), JC10(100 to 120 days), RC9(80 to 85
days), RC19(60 days), Ratan BK79, Jay Basmati 370] Kasturi(IET8580)] Taravari Basmati,
Pusa Sugand 4 & 5, Pusa improved Basmati-1.
Pearl millet: Pusa 334, Pusa 383, HHB 67, HHB 94, Raj 171, ICMH 356, ICTP 8201 and
RHB 121, H.H.B.-67(I), I.C.T.P.-8203, H.H.B.-60, Raj.- 171, G.H.B.-538, R.H.B.-90 and
I.C.M.H.-356, Raj 171, H.H.B. 67, Pusa 334, Pusa 383, HHB 67, HHB 94, Raj 171, ICMH
356, ICTP 8201, RHB 121 MH-169, RHB 90, RHB121, CZP 9802, ICMH356, Pusa-334,
HHB-67, HHB-94.
110 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
Moong : K-851(60 to 65 days), Pusa Baishaki(60 to 80 days), RMG62(60 to 65 days)
ML131, 267, Ganga-1(Jamunothri), Ganga-8 (Gangothri), SML668, SUM-2, K-851, ,
ML131, Pusa 267,
Sorghum: Improved varieties/hybrids - CSV 15, CSH 14, CSH 16,CSH 5-6,9,SPV 245,
346, 475, 96, CSV 15, SSG-59-3 and MP-Chari, CSV-15, CSV-17, Pratap Jowar-1430 and
green fodder, varieties are Rajasthan Chari-1, Rajasthan Chari-2, SPV-837, and MP-Chari.
Cluster been: Improved varieties - RGC 936, RGC 986, RGC 1002, RGC 1003, RGC 1017,
and HG 365.
Sesamum: Improved varieties - Pratap, TC 25, RT 46, RT 54, RT 103, RT 125 and Tt 13.
Ground nut: Improved varieties - GG 2, GG 7, HNG 10, Prakash and M 13.
Green gram: Improved varieties - K 851, RMG 62, RMG 268 and Ganga
Bajra: R.H.B-121, H.H.B.-67(I), I.C.T.P.-8203, H.H.B.-60, Raj.- 171, G.H.B.-538, R.H.B.-
90 and I.C.M.H.-356
Guar: HG 75, RGC 936, RGC 197, RGC 966, RGC 1017, RGC 1002 and RGC 1003 a
Moth bean: RMO-40, RMO-435, RMO-225, RMO 257, RMO 423
Cowpea : FS-68, RC-19 and 101
Maize: Sagar Ganga white 2, Sagar Ganga 5, Pratap maize 2, 5, PEHM-2 and Mahi
Kanchan
Arhar: Prabhat, Gwalior-3, UPAS 120, ICPL 87, 151, ICPH-8.
Soyabean: MACS 58, 450, JS 80-21 335, 93-0, PS16, PK472, NRC-12, Pratap soya 2,
RKS24.
Groundnut : RSB 87, RS 138, JL 24, RG 14,
Cowpea: C-152, JC-5, JC-10, C-52, RS-9, FS-68, RC-19, RC-101 and RCP-27
Tomato: Pusa Ruby, Pusa early dwarf, Roma
Brinjal: Pusa long, Meghdoot, ArkaBahar, Pusa summer and prolific round
Fodder grass : Desmodium, Muslai, Gold, Penicum Koleratum.
Cucumber: Balam, PusaSahyog, Radish : Pusa Chetki, Cauliflower : Improved Japanese,
Pusa hybrid-2 & Himjyoti
Guava: Allahabad safeda and Lucknow 49, Pomegrante: Ganesh, Jhalore and Seedless,
Orange: Nagpur and Kinnoo, Lime: Kagzi and Baramasi, Aonla: Banarshi, Krishana,
Kanchan, Chakaiya, NA7, NA9 and NA10, Ber: Sonor,Thornless, Katha Alwar, Gola,and
Seb
Sweet potato: Pusa Safed, Pusa Lal, Pusa Sunhari & L-20
Ashwaghandha: Ashwaghandha-20 and Ashwaghandha-134
Andhra Pradesh Blackgram: LBG-20, LBG-623, T-9, Madira-307 and LBG-752
Greengram: LGG-407, LGG-430, LGG-460 warangal-2
Redgram: LRG-30, LRG-38, LRG-41, ICPL-8863, ICPL-87117
Groundnut: TAG-24, JL-24, K-6, K-9, Narayani, ICGV-91114
Seasame: Gauri, Madhavi,YLN-11,YLH-17,YLH-66
Paddy: MTU-7029 (Swarna),MTU-2067 (Chaitanya), MTU-2077, Krishnaveni, BPT-5204
(sambamashuri), BPT-1768(Bapatlasannalu), MTU-1061 (Indra), NLR-T-145
(Swarnamukhi), NLR-34449 (Nelluri mashuri), NLR-9674 (kothamolakolukulu), NLR-
India 111
28523 (Sriranga), NLR-3BPT-5204 (sambamashuri), Pushkala(RGL-2624), IR-64 and
MTU-9993,MTO-1010, MTU-1001, Vasundhara, Swarna and Srikakulam sannalu
Karnataka Sugarcane : CO-419 , CO-62175,& CO-7804
Sunflower : Modern, KBSH-1,41,42,&44
Field bean : HA-3,4
Green gram : Selection – 4, BGS-9
Black gram : TAU – 1, DU – 1, T-9
Soybean : JS - 335
Jowar : DSV – 2
Rubber: RRIM-600 ,RRII 105, GT-1
Paddy: Mangala, Mukthi, KMP-105
Ragi: GPU-26,28,45 &48, HR-911, Indaf-5,9 PR-205
Redgram: TTB-7, BRG-1, 2, ICP-7035 , CPI-7035
Maize: Ganga-11, Deccan-103, NAC-1137, NAH-1137
Tur Var,: (Medium to Long Duration)PT-221,GS-1,ICP-8863(Maruti),ICPL-
87119(Asha)WRP-1 &
Short Duration Var: like ICPL-87(Pragati), Selection-31(Zone 2 irrigated areas ),GCS-11-39
(Zone-2)
Pigeon pea: PT-221, GS-1, ICP-8863 (Maruti),ICPL-87119 (Asha)WRP-1,TS-3-R ICPL-
87(Pragati), GCS-11-39 (Zone-2)
Gujarat Cluster bean: G.Guar-2.
Caster: GAUCH-1, GCH-2, GCH-4, GCH-5, 6 or 7.
Pegion pea: BDN-2, Viashali, ICPL-87, Gujarat-100.
Sesame: GT-1 or GT-2.
Maharashtra Red gram: ICPL-87, Vipulla, BSMR-853, 736 for Madhya Maharashtra, ICPL-87119
(Asha), C-11 for Vidarbha.
Adsali Sugarcane: CO-86032 (Neera), COM-88121, COM-0265 (Phule-265).
Banana: Basrai, Shrimanti and Gradnine.
Mrug Banana: Basrai, Shrimanti, Gradnine.
Madhya Pradesh Maize- JM 12, JVM 421, JM 13, JM 216; Hybrid varieties: HPQM-1, Payonior 30R77,
Sinzenta NK 30, Monsento Allrounder, Bioseed 9681;
Soybean: JS 9560 (85 days), JS 9305 (90-95 days), JS 335 (110 days);
Urd: JU 86, JU 3, T- 9 etc
Moong: K851, Jowar moong-721, Pant moong-4, TJM-3,
Urd:Oant U-30, RBU-38, Jowar Urd-3, RJU-88.
Arhar: Laxmi, Pragti, Asha, Jagrati, JKM-7 and JKM-189
Mango: Kesar, Aamrapali, Dasahri, Mallika, Guava: seedless, Sardar, Allahabadi safeda,
Amla:chakaiya, NA 3, NA 7, Pomegranet: Ganesh, Mradula.
112 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
Short duration varieties for Jabalpur Paddy-JR-201, Poornima, JRH-5, JRH-8 (Hybrid), IR-36, JR-503SV-1
Jowar-JJ-741, JJ-938, JJ-1022, JJ-1041 and CSV-15
Arhar-Laxmi, Pragti, Asha, Jagrati, JKM-7 and JKM-189
Soybean-JS-95-60, JS-93-05, JS-97-52, JS-80-21, JS-335, NRC-37
Moong-Pusa Vishal, K-851, JN-721, Jawahar-99-37, HUM-1, HUM-2, JM-98-90, PDM-11
Urd-JU-2, JU-3, JU-86, T-9, JCB-623, LGB-884 and TAU-1
Chattisgarh Paddy: MTU-1001, MTU-1010, IR-64, IR-36, Poornima, Annada, Mahamaya,
Karma,Mahsuri, Bamleshwari, Swarna
Soyabean: JS 335, Indira Soya-09, JS 93-05.
India 113
Annexure III Contour maps for the week ending 17.08.2011
Actual Mean Maximum temperature ranged
between 36 to 400C over some parts of
Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Raylaseema,
Tamil Nadu, 32 to 360C over most parts of
Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, some parts of
Punjab, West Rajasthan, West Uttar
Pradesh, Assam, Chattisgarh, Orissa, North
& South Interior Karnataka, Kerala,
Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, 24 to
280C over some parts of Jammu &
Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, East
Rajasthan, East Uttar Pradesh, Sikkim,
Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, 20 to 24 0C
over some parts of Jammu & Kashmir,
Himachal Pradesh, 28 to 320C over
remaining parts of the country.
Actual Mean Maximum temperature
anomaly between 2 to 40C over most parts
of Andhra Pradesh, some parts of North &
South Interior Karnataka, Madhya
Maharashtra, Marathwada, -2 to 00C over
most parts of Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal
Pradesh, Rajasthan, East Uttar Pradesh,
Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal & Sikkim,
Assam, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, West
Madhya Pradesh, some parts of
Uttarakhand, West Uttar Pradesh,
Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland,
East Madhya Pradesh, Madhya
Maharashtra, Chattisgarh, Orissa, Gujarat,
Saurashtra & Kutch, Andaman & Nicobar
Islands, -4 to -20C over most parts of
Haryana, Delhi, some parts of Jammu &
Kashmir, Punjab, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand,
West Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Gangetic
West Bengal, Chattisgarh, West Madhya
Pradesh, Gujarat, Saurashtra & Kutch, -6 to
-40C some parts of Punjab, Haryana, West
Uttar Pradesh, 0 to 20C over remaining
parts of the country.
114 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
Actual Mean Minimum Temperature
ranged between 20 to 240C over most parts
of Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh,
Maharashtra, Karnataka, Kerala, some parts
of Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh,
Uttarakhand, Punjab, Rajasthan, East Uttar
Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Orissa, Telangana,
Raylaseema, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, 16 to
200C Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal
Pradesh, 24 o 280C over remaining parts of
the Country..
Minimum Temperature anomaly ranged -2
to 00C over most parts of Jammu &
Kashmir, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana,
Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, East India, North East
India, Chattisgarh, West Madhya Pradesh,
Gujarat, South Interior Karnataka, some
parts of Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan, East
Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil
Nadu, Kerala, Coastal & North Interior
Karnataka, Maharashtra (except Konkan &
Goa), Saurashtra, Andaman & Nicobar
Islands, -4 to -20C over some parts of
Orissa, Chattisgarh, East Rajasthan,
Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Gujarat, 0 to
20C over remaining parts of the Country.
India 115
Relative humidity between 60 to 80% over
most parts of Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu,
South & North Interior Karnataka, Madhya
Maharashtra, Marathwada, some parts of
West Rajasthan, Orissa, Kerala, Vidarbha,
West Madhya Pradesh, 80% and above
over remaining parts of the country.
Cloud amount 4 to 6 okta over most parts of
Jammu & Kashmir, Andhra Pradesh,
Marathwada, Vidarbha, some parts of Punjab,
West Rajasthan, Chattisgarh, Orissa, Madhya
Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, North & South
Interior Karnataka, 2 to 4 okta over some parts
of Andhra Pradesh, North & south Interior
Karnataka, 0 to 2 okta over some parts of
Telengana, 6 okta and above over remaining
parts of the country.
Wind speed ranged between 8 to10 knots over some parts of Saurashtra & Kutch, 6 to 8 knots over
some parts of West Madhya Pradesh, Saurashtra& Kutch, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, 4 to 6
knots over most Parts of Haryana, Delhi, East Rajasthan, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, South Interior
Karnataka, Lakshadweep, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, some parts of Punjab, West Rajasthan,
West Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, North Interior
Karnataka, Maharashtra (except Vidarbha), Saurashtra& Kutch, 0 to 2 knots over most parts of
Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, West Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Sikkim,
North East India, East Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, some parts of Punjab, West Rajasthan, East
Rajasthan, West Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Orissa, Vidarbha, Telengana, Tamil Nadu, 2 to 4
knots over remaining parts of the country.
116 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
Appendix II
Agro Advisory Bulletin for the State of Maharashtra issued on Friday
12.08.2011 To 15.08.2011
Part A: Realized and forecast weather
Summary of past three days over the State (9th August to 11th August Morning ):
Monsoon was active over East Vidarbha on 9th and 10th August. Rain occurred at most
places over Konkan, at many places over Madhya Maharashtra and at few places over
Marathwada and Vidarbha.
Maximum temperatures ranged between 26-32°C and anomaly in it was found to be between
-4 to 2°C and minimum temperatures varied from 22 to 28°C and anomaly by -2 to 4 °C over
the State. Mean relative humidity was found to be between 60-100 %, Cloud cover was
almost 8 Okta and wind speed varied from 0-8 knots over the State.
13 districts of the state received normal to excess rainfall and rest of the districts received
deficient/ scanty rainfall during the week. 24 districts of the state received normal to excess
rainfall and rest of the districts received deficient rainfall till date during the season.
Distribution of weather parameters in the State (4.08.11 to 7.8.11)
India 117
118 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
Weekly and seasonal rainfall distribution
Rainfall forecast for the next five days (daywise)
Day 1 Day 2
Day 3 Day 4
India 119
Day 1
State Rainfall Forecast ( Next 72 Hours): Rain would occur at many places over Konkan
and at few places over Madhya Maharashtra, Vidarbha and at isolated places over
Marathwada.
Heavy Rainfall Warning : Isolated heavy rain would occur over Konkan during next 48
hours.
Outlook upto 0830 of 17th August: Fairly widespread rainfall activity over the State.
120 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
Part B
Crop information and Advisories Information showing kharif (major)sown area in Maharashtra state during 2011 as on 08.08.11
(Area in “00”ha)
(Data collected from the State Department of Agriculture, Maharashtra )
India 121
122 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
Stages of the major Kharif crop
( Crop stages and state as collected from AMFUs and State Department of Agriculture,
Maharashtra)
S:Sowing, G: Germination, Se: Seedlings, Trans: Transplanting, EV: Early vegetative,
V:Vegetative growth
ET : Early tillering, Br: Branching, flow: flowering
India 123
Crop Advisories � As rain is likely at many places over Konkan during next 3 days, farmers are advised to undertake intercultural operations and apply plant protection measures and
fertilizers after current spells of rain in Konkan and on a non-rainy day in Madhya
Maharashtra and Vidarbha. As there is chance of isolated heavy rain during next 48
hours in Konkan, farmers are advised to make an arrangement to drain out excess
water from standing crops field.
� Utilizing monsoon rain, farmers of east Vidarbha region are advised to complete the transplanting of 20 to 22 days old rice seedlings.
� Farmers in Maharashtra are advised to undertake sowing of spinach and fenugreek step by step. Also complete the transplanting of brinjal, tomato, cauliflower and
chilli.
� Maintain water level 5 cm by bunding of rice field in Konkan, Kolhapur, Pune, Nashik division and maintain 2-3 cm water level in east Vidarbha.
� Undertake hoeing and weeding in kharif jowar, soyabean, groundnut, cotton, bajra, maize to keep the crop weed free.
� Undertake the planting of fruit crops in Konkan and Kolhapur Division.
� As prevailing weather is favourable, farmers of Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada are advised to continue the planting of adsali sugarcane by selecting
variety among CO-86032 (Neera), COM-88121 and COM-0265(Phule-265). Select
10-11 months old cane sets.
� For better growth of cotton boll and control of red leaf in cotton, spray 2 % DAP after 45 to 60 days from sowing.
• Plant Protection:
� Due to light and uneven rains there may be incidence of leaf folder, army worm and blue beetle in rice in South Konkan, for control of leaf folder spray
Monocrotophos@ 12 ml/ 10 litres of water. For control of Armyworm and blue
beetle spraying of Monocrotophos 36WSC @ 14 ml or Carbaril 50 WP @ 20 g or
Cypermethrin 25 EC @ 2.4 ml per 10 litres of water or dusting with 2% Methyl
Parathion dust @ 20 kg/ha may be done.
� Due to humid and rainy weather there is chance of infestation of green semi looper and tobacco eating cater pillar in early sown soyabean in East Vidarbha, spray
Chloropyriphos 20 % @ 20 ml or Quinolphos 25 % @20 ml in 10 liters water. There
is also chance of infestation of girdle beetle in Marathwada, spray
Trizophos40EC@10 ml or Profenophos 50%WSC@25 ml in 10 litres water.
� Due to favourable weather infestation of sap sucking pest(aphids, jassids, thrips) may increase in cotton in Central Vidarbha zone, if infestation exceeds ETL (10
pests/ leaf) spray Dimethoate 30%@ 10 ml or Methyl Dimeton 25% @8 ml in 10
litres water. Due to continues cloudy weather there may be infestation of white fly,
aphids and jassids in western Maharashtra scarcity zone, spray Acitamiprid@4 g+
124 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
sticker in 10 litres water. There is also possibility of attack of mealy bug in cotton in
Pune division. For primary control of mealy bug, the weeds near the bunds of field
should be uprooted and destroyed. At primary stage use Metavyrazium anasoli or
verticylium leconi 4 gm per lit along with 1 gm detergent powder. If there is more
incidence, spray Dimethoate 30% 10 ml or Methyl Dimeton 25% @25 ml or Di
chlorovas 76% @1 ml or Chloropyriphos 20 ml or Acitamiprid 20% 20 gm per 10
lit. of water.
� Due to clouds and more humidity there is chance of infestation of powdery mildew in green gram in Central Vidarbha zone, spray Dinocap@10 ml or Tridemarf@10 ml
in 10 litres water.
Advisories for Transport in Agricultural Field
• As there is a chance of isolated heavy rainfall likely to occur in Konkan, transporters are
requested not to transport agricultural goods in and out of these areas.
Advisories for Fisheries
• Seed production and screening programme of ornamental fishes should be initiated and
carried out in south Konkan region
• If the seeds are available, release the small seeds or fingerlings in the conservation ponds @
10000 per ha or in small watershed reservoirs @ 2000 per ha.
Advisories for Poultry and Livestock
• Vaccination may be done to animals against H.S and B.Q disease under the guidance of
veterinary doctors.
• Provide green fodder and cool water for drinking. The varieties of perennial fodder crops
(stumps) like paragrass, Hybrid Napier, CO-3, Yashwant may be used.
• Protection may be given to Dairy/Farm animals, sheep, goat and poultry birds from
heavy rains and cold winds in Konkan. Do not allow to store water in animal shed. Pits
in cattle shed should be filled with soil.
• For mature animal, give 20 to 25 kg green fodder and 5 to 6 kg dry fodder and for
pregnant cow, give extra 1.5 to 2 kg supplementary feed after 7 months.
• In rainy season there is possibility of contagious disease in animal in Pune division. For
control of black quartec, give Penicylium Qutibiotics 10,000 international unit per kg
body weight at interval of 4 to 5 days. For control of hemorrhagic septicemia disease,
give Oxytetracyclin 10 mg per kg body wt at interval of 4 to 5 days.
Advisories for storage
• As isolated heavy rainfall is likely to occur over Konkan, farmers are advised to store
seeds and fertilizers in safer places.
India 125
Appendix III
Last week weather (Form 30th July to 02nd, August, 2011)
During the week, 40-100 percent cloud cover and total rainfall 90.3 mm were record in the
agrometeorological observatory at Tikamgarh. The maximum temperature and minimum
temperature were recorded of 33.1 and 24.6°C, respectively during the week. Relative
humidity varied between 84 and 100% during morning and 62 and100% during afternoon
hours respectively. Average wind speed was 6.8 km/hr and evaporation rate recoded 3.5
mm/day during the week.
Medium range Weather forecast (Valid from 03rd to 07th August 2011)
Five days forecast description is based on the numerical weather forecast received from
IMD, Bhopal
There is possibility of medium rainfall during next five days and (90%) cloudy weather
conditions in the district, Maximum temperature will be around 30°C. Minimum temperature
is expected to be 25°C in next five days. Moderate winds of an average speed of 04 to 11
km/hr are expected during next five days. Predominant winds are expected to be westerly.
Weather based Agro-Advisories (For week ending on 9th August, 2011)
Advisories based on advices received from subject matter specialists/members of agro-
advisory committee
There is possibility of medium rainfall during next five days; farmers are advised to spray
the agrochemicals with 1 ml teepol as sticker.
Cereals, oilseeds and pulses:
There is report of attack of grasshopper in the soybean crop. If found, it is advised to spray
quinolphos @1.5 ml per litre of water in clear sky condition.
There is possibility of medium rainfall during next five days. Farmers are advised to monitor
the crop during next five days; there is report of attack of stem fly in the soybean crop. If
found it is advised to spray melathiyon 50 E.C. @100 ml per litre of water.
If crops are 25-30 days old, farmers are also advised for hoeing in the crop.
Fruits and vegetable:
In view of cloudy and rainy weather, farmers are advised to monitoring the mite, jassid and
grasshopper in the ladyfinger and brinjal crop; If found it is advised to spray Phosmite @1.5-
126 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
2.0 ml per litre of water for mite and control for the jassid and grasshopper to spray rogur in
clear sky condition.
In view of rainfall; Farmers are advised to monitor the cucurbits vegetable crops and provide
supports the plants (climb up) to prevent cucurbits from rotting in standing water. Make
arrangement of appropriate drainage for safe disposal of excess water In present weather
condition, farmers are advised to monitor the chilly and tomato crops for sucking pest because of
leaf curl may be possible. If found, it is advised to spray the crops with Methyl Dematon 25 E.C.
@2.0 ml per litre of water in clear sky condition
There is possibility of light rainfall during next five days; farmers are advised to do the transplant
of banana and practicise cutting of water suckers in old plants.
Animal husbandry & poultry:
Farmers are advised to vaccinate their milch cattle against H.F. and B.Q disease.
In rainy season lesser digestion of grasses is a common phenomenon in milch cattle therefore,
supplement the food with mineral and salt.
(A. K. Srivastava)
Nodal Officer
Janaki Prasad Khanal
Regional Director of Agriculture
Regional Directorate of Agriculture
Hariharbhawan, Lalitpur, Nepal
5.3 NEPAL
128 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
Nepal 129
5.3.1 Introduction
Historically, farmers have learned to cope with climate variability and have often adapted
crops and farming practices to suit new conditions in a consistent manner. But the severity
and pace of climate change is presenting new, unprecedented challenges. The poor in rural
and urban areas have a low capacity to adapt and thus will be most adversely affected as they
depend on climate sensitive activities . Gradual changes in temperatures and precipitation as
well as more frequent extreme weather are expected to result in crop failures, livestock
deaths and other asset losses, thereby threatening food production but also access, stability
and utilization of food resources. In some areas, the changes may well exceed the adaptation
capacity of populations.
Total agricultural production in the developing world declined from an average annual
growth of 3.3 per cent during the period 1995-2000 to 3.0 per cent during the period 2000-
2007. One of the reasons for this decrease was the alarming increase of natural disasters in
number of countries. During the past four decades, weather and climate risks such as
droughts, floods, storms, tropical cyclones, heat waves and wild land fires and windstorms
have caused major losses in the agricultural sector (Sivakumar, 2005). Communities that are
most exposed to these risks are those with limited access to technological resources and with
limited development of infrastructure. Currently there are many opportunities that can assist
in coping effectively with agrometeorological risks and uncertainties (Meinke and Stone,
2005). One of the most important strategies is improved use of climate knowledge and
climate risk technologies. Both structural and non-structural measures can be used to reduce
the impacts of the variability (including extremes) of climate resources on crop production
(Wilhite, 2005). Planning, early warning and well-prepared response strategies are the major
tools for mitigating losses.
Farmers can play an important role in reducing global emissions by planting trees, reducing
tillage, increasing soil cover, improving grassland management, altering forage and animal
breeds and using fertilizer more efficiently among other measures.
In the developing countries, where adoption of improved technologies is too slow to
counteract the adverse effects of varying environmental conditions, climate fluctuations are
the main factors that prevent the regular supply and availability of food, the key to food
security. Hence it is imperative that weather and climate variability aspects are well
understood so as to formulate more sustainable policies and strategies to promote food
production and food security.
5.3.2 Climate Change and Agriculture
Climate change and agriculture are interrelated processes, both of which take place on a
global scale. Global warming is projected to have significant impacts on conditions affecting
agriculture, including temperature, precipitation and glacial run-off. These conditions
determine the carrying capacity of the biosphere to produce enough food for the human
population and domesticated animals. Rising carbon dioxide levels would also have effects,
both detrimental and beneficial, on crop yields. The overall effect of climate change on
agriculture will depend on the balance of these effects. Assessment of the effects of global
130 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
climate changes on agriculture might help to properly anticipate and adapt farming to
maximize agricultural production.
Despite technological advances, such as improved varieties, genetically modified organisms,
and irrigation systems, weather is still a key factor in agricultural productivity, as well as soil
properties and natural communities. The effect of climate on agriculture is related to
variations in local climates rather than in global climate patterns. Consequently, agronomists
consider that any assessment has to be individually considered for each local area.
In the long run, the climatic change could affect agriculture in several ways:
• Productivity- in terms of quantity and quality of crops
• Agricultural practices- through changes of water use (irrigation) and agricultural
inputs such as herbicides, pesticides and fertilizers
• Environmental effects- in relation of frequency and intensity of soil drainage
(leading to nitrogen leaching), soil erosion, reduction of crop diversity
• Rural space -through the loss and gain of cultivated lands, land speculation, land
renunciation, and hydraulic amenities.
• Adaptation- organisms may become more or less competitive, as well as humans
may develop urgency to develop more competitive organisms, such as flood
resistant or salt resistant varieties of rice.
5.3.3 Impact of Climate Change in Nepalese Agriculture
Least developed countries are the ultimate bearer of the likely impact of climate change.
They are more at risk from climate change because of their dependence on agriculture,
especially the subsistence and with poor irrigation and soil management practice. Climate
variability has a more severe impact on the economies in which agriculture is a large share
of GDP. Developed as well as few newly emerging developing economies are the major
pollutants. They are emitting a large amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) as they consume
unlimited quantity of fossil fuel to sustain their economic growth rate and maintain their
living standard thus giving birth to global warming. Scientists have proved that GHG
emission is the sole agent of global warming and climate change. The intensity of the impact
of global warming and climate change is more sensitive to the less emitting countries like
Nepal.
Nepal is extremely vulnerable to climate change like other GHG gas non-emitting countries.
Its emission level is lowest in the world measuring only 0.025% of global GHG emissions.
However, this ratio is increasing over time. From the last couple of years, Nepal has been
experiencing flooding, landslides, drought and variability in the occurrence of the regular
course of monsoon. Flooding of the Kosi River in monsoon, over the past two years has
displaced millions in Nepal as well as in Bihar (India). On the other hand, a weakened and
irregular monsoon is causing drought threatening hundreds of millions of farmers all over
India, Bangladesh and Nepal while heavy rains have caused terrible landslides across the
Himalayas. The agriculture production particularly paddy in the current year in Nepal will
decrease considerably due to the late monsoon. Likewise, last year’s drought plagued winter
Nepal 131
has adversely affected this year’s food production creating deficit of food. Currently up to
3.4 million people are estimated to require food assistance in Nepal due to a combination of
natural disasters (particularly winter drought) affecting agricultural production and higher
food prices, reducing people’s ability to purchase food. Scientists claim that Nepal is getting
warmer. Monsoon changes its regular course in a slow and creeping manner. While none of
these natural disasters can be directly attributed to climate change, scientists predict that they
will become more frequent and more severe unless we act properly. Furthermore, scientists
claim that increasing warming and changes in the occurrence of monsoon in Nepal are the
worst consequences of climate change. Most of the arable land remains fallow as its
cultivation depends on the rainfall resulting in food supply shortages. The livelihood of the
majority of farmers is in danger due to crop failures arising from the uncertainty of
monsoon. It is the poorest who are most vulnerable to these natural disasters getting most
severely affected by the climate change. The rising trend of warming if allowed to continue
will put the Himalayan glacier in danger. Scientists have warned that the fast melting of ice
in the Himalayan range will convert the ever flowing river into desert after 30 years.
5.3.4 Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management
Practices in Nepal
Different adaptation options selected and screened based on hazard specificity and location
specific preferences are presented below. The practices are under field testing to find out
suitability for replication in similar areas. The following list provides selected practices
under each of the prioritized hazards.
i. Rain Water Harvesting and Soil Moisture Conservation: More than 80% of the total
annual rainfall in Nepal is received during the rainy season (June – September). The rainfall
is erratic and mountain slopes offer little opportunity for storage. Major crops grown during
rainy months and dry season face seasonal drought. On average, 65% of the total cultivated
land is rainfed and yields are low. Further, livestock rearing as a livelihood activity in mid-
hills and terrai requires adequate water both for cultivating fodder crops and/or pastures and
for drinking. Water harvesting becomes essential to support livelihood activities throughout
the year. Some projects support excavation of a model water harvesting pond in selected
VDC with recommended dimension considering farmer’s preference. The practice is
promoted with a primary objective of reducing the impact of drought. Similarly, soil surface
mulching techniques are required to enhance soil water retention and to manage drought
risks.
ii. Improvement of Degraded Land: More than 90% of the population in Nepal is
dependent upon the land for the fulfilment of basic needs (food, fuel, fibre and timber).
Land degradation has resulted in decline in land quality or reduction in its potential
productivity. Both the natural conditions and human activities contribute to the degradation
of land in Nepal. Natural hazards like landslides in the hills, drought in the most of the areas
of the country and flooding in the foothills and the Terai have frequently contributed to land
degradation leading to poor socio-economic conditions and deterioration of natural
ecosystems. Anthropogenic causes such as deforestation, overgrazing, and unscientific
farming in steep slopes have resulted in loss of flora, fauna, erosion of top soil, occurrence of
landslides in the hills and flooding in the plain areas. The repeated pressure of grazing on
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grasslands beyond its carrying capacity, shifting cultivation in the mountains and
overgrazing in the open lands lead to land degradation and damage the ground vegetation
and grassland ecosystems. Climate change and associated impacts contributes to additional
vulnerability. Improvement of degraded land contributes to climate change adaptation and
mitigation together with potential benefits for disaster risk reduction. To manage such risks
the activities include plantation of broom grass, forage/fodder grass, nitrogen fixing
plant/tree species and agroforestry systems. The practices are expected to improve farmers
coping mechanisms against climate risks. Community fallow lands in selected VDCs will be
converted into grassland and reforested with fodder/forage crops to enhance livelihood
opportunities and community level assets.
iii. Mitigation of River Bank Cutting: Soil erosion due to over grazing, deforestation and
agricultural activities can cause an undercut of the river banks. As a result several rivers
entering into Terai region in Nepal deposit tonnes of sediment from the site of erosion onto
the river bed causing water stagnation and loss of productive land. Increased pressure on
land and accelerated intensity of rainfall events due to changing climate are perceived to
enhance the damage and loss agriculture infrastructure and crops. Revetments need to be
created to stabilise river banks and reduce erosion. Both living materials such as
fodder/forage grass and bamboo plantations can mitigate the impacts of extreme climate
events like floods and non-living materials such as rocks and boulders are suitable to
stabilise points of erosion.
iv. Slope Stabilization and Management: Nepal is a mountainous country: approximately
86% of the area is characterized by steep hills and mountains. Two of the four pilot districts
represent approximately 30% of the mid-hills are affected by landslides and soil erosion.
Intensive use of the land resource for agriculture, grazing and fuel wood and development of
infrastructure without adequate conservation measures has accelerated surface gully and
mass wasting erosion in Nepal. The percentage of landslides caused by human activities is
significantly higher in the densely populated mid-hills. One of the major causes of slope
instability produced by human activities is deforestation in the hills and mountains. Climate
change and associated climate variability would exacerbate the slope instability due to
extreme precipitation events. Slope Agriculture Land Technology (SALT) is one of the
practices identified for promotion. Slope land management by plantation of fodder trees and
coffee in terrace to control erosion is being promoted in mid-hills of Arghakanchi district.
This practice is being implemented by involving farmer groups. The practice provides dual
benefit: soil erosion control and fodder for livestock. Another option prioritized to stabilize
the slopes is the hedge row planting. Rows of perennial crops such as coffee, cacao, citrus
and banana are planted on every third alley created by contoured hedge rows. The alleys not
occupied by permanent crops are planted alternately to cereals such as corn, upland rice,
sweet potato, melon and legumes such as mungbean, soybean etc., This cyclical cropping
provides the farmer with several harvests throughout the year. The intervention would
identify best suitable model for the mid-hill region.
v. Management of High/Low Temperature Stress: Temperature records of the last 30
years indicate increasing trend and the warming seems to be consistent and continuous after
the mid-1970s. The average warming in annual temperature between 1977 and 1994 was
0.06 ºC/yr and warming is more pronounced in high and mid hill regions of Nepal and lower
in the Terai regions. Warming in the winter is more pronounced compared to other seasons.
Nepal 133
Summer temperature exceeds the thresholds of many agricultural crops and in certain cases,
fluctuations in winter temperature causes temperature stress. Two viable practices have been
identified for field demonstration with farmers to reduce the impact of temperature
fluctuations: (i) Tunnel farming and off season vegetable cultivation and (ii) Community
cantered small scale potato seed storage.
Tunnel farming technology is suitable and preferred by the small-farmers to produce off-
season vegetables. Hence priority is being given for the development of localised tunnel
farming technology by using new ways and techniques. Localised tunnel cultivation system
is sustainable and causes low environmental pollution to agriculture system in addition to
reducing the high/low temperature risks. The technology has been locally considered helpful
to increase agricultural production and diversify the agriculture base.
vi. Crop diversification: Nepal is broadly divided from south to north into three agro-
ecological zones. Based on the prevailing climatic conditions, different types of crops can be
grown. Primarily, rice, wheat, legumes and oilseeds are the major commodities of the Terai,
rice, maize, wheat, pulses and oilseed are major commodities in the hills and potato, barley,
buckwheat and amaranthus are the commodities suitable for the mountains. Based on the
above conditions the suitable cropping patterns are being promoted. However, there is local
scale dry and wet spells which affect these crops and needs intercropping systems to
stabilize the productivity. Farmers in mid-hills prefer to grow soybeans/beans and Zinger
with maize as an intercrop to reduce the risk of drought. Similarly the preferred intercrops
with wheat are Pea and mustard. Field demonstrations were started in participation with
farmers to identify best suited intercropping systems in mid-hills.
vii. Climate Change Adaptation and Resource Conservation: Practice of cultivating rice
and wheat is unique in Indo-Gangetic Plains because of suitable thermal conditions for both
crops during the annual cycle in warm-temperate and sub-tropical areas. Since 1960s, there
has been substantial increase in the area cultivated to rice – wheat in Terai regions. The
driving force for expansion, however, remains the increasing demand for food that must be
met by more intensive production systems because no new land is available for expansion of
agriculture. In many places, the pressure to intensify agriculture is exacerbated, as land is
lost through degradation and by urbanization. The magnitude and intensity of Rice – Wheat
systems in the region depend in part upon soil and climate but also on the socio-economic
circumstances of the farmers.
Rice and wheat yields in warm environments can be raised significantly by modifying
agronomic practices. Conservation agriculture involves significant reductions in tillage,
surface retention of adequate crop residues, and diversified, economically viable crop
rotations. Along with other resource-conserving farming practices, conservation agriculture
can improve rural incomes and livelihoods by reducing production costs, managing agro-
ecosystem productivity and diversity more sustainably, and minimizing unfavorable
environmental impacts, especially in small and medium-scale farms. One of the longer term
productivity benefits of conservation agriculture practices would be to reverse the
widespread, chronic soil degradation that threatens yields in intensive wheat-cropping
systems like those of the Indo-Gangetic Plains. Conservation agriculture with minimum
tillage, zero tillage, surface seeding of wheat in the rice – wheat system, bed planting and
134 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
arobic rice and System of Rice Intensification are the better mix showing climate change
adaptation and mitigation synergies.
viii. Drought Tolerant Varieties of Crops: Clearly, rice, wheat and maize yields in lower
latitudes may decrease due to global warming, which may be further affected by water
scarcity or drought. One approach to dealing with these heat-related constraints is to improve
rice, wheat and maize germplasm to provide higher tolerance to stresses associated with
these environments. Hence, the new varieties screened by NARC are being demonstrated to
the farmers focusing on enhancing the crop yield potential and to maintain yield under
higher temperatures. In this way, they will assist in building cropping system resilience to
the global warming and natural hazards that could jeopardize the livelihoods of resource-
poor farmers who depend on the rice, wheat and maize harvest.
5.3.5 The Need for Agrometeorological Advisory Service (AAS)
From the last couple of years, Nepal has been experiencing flooding, landslides, drought and
variability in the occurrence of the regular course of monsoon. Flooding of the Kosi River in
monsoon, over the past two years has displaced millions in Nepal as well as in Bihar (India).
On the other hand, a weakened and irregular monsoon is causing drought threatening
millions of farmers all over Nepal while heavy rains have caused terrible landslides across
the Himalayas. The agriculture production particularly paddy in the current year in Nepal
will decrease by half due to the late monsoon. Likewise, last year’s drought plagued winter
has adversely affected this year’s food production creating deficit of food. According to a
World Food Programme estimate more than 3.4 million people in Nepal currently require
food assistance, due to a combination of natural disasters, including last year's winter
drought - one of the worst in the country's history, affecting agricultural production and
higher food prices, reducing people’s ability to purchase food.
Scientists claim that Nepal is getting warmer. Monsoon changes its regular course in a slow
and creeping manner. While none of these natural disasters can be directly attributed to
climate change, scientists predict that they will become more frequent and more severe
unless we act properly.
Furthermore, scientists claim that increasing warming and changes in the occurrence of
monsoon in Nepal are the worst consequences of climate change. Agriculture sector is facing
its dire effects with the fall in production and productivity. Most of the arable land remains
fallow as its cultivation depends on the rainfall resulting in food supply shortages. The
livelihood of the majority of farmers is in danger due to crop failures arising from the
uncertainty of monsoon. It is the poorest who are most vulnerable to these natural disasters
getting most severely affected by the climate change. The rising trend of warming if allowed
to continue will put the Himalayan glacier in danger. Scientists have warned that the fast
melting of ice in the Himalayan range will convert the ever flowing river into desert after 30
years. There will be shortage of water that would put livelihood of 1 billion people in
danger.
Farmers were changing crop patterns from rice paddy that needs more water to vegetables,
selling assets like livestock because there was not enough water for them and are migrating
in search of work.
Nepal 135
According to an Oxfam report on Nepal, changing weather patterns had caused crop
production to dramatically drop across Nepal, leaving farmers unable to properly feed
themselves and pushing them into debt. Among recent changes in weather patterns in Nepal
are an increase in temperature extremes, more intense rainfall and increased unpredictability
in weather patterns.
Oxfam report based on interviews conducted in rural communities across Nepal in February
and March last year revealed that majority of Nepal's population are poor farmers reliant on
rainfall and occupying small parcels of land that can barely produce enough food for the
family.They often live in areas most at risk to floods and landslides and are more reliant on
local natural resources such as forests and water. Even small changes to rainfall patterns can
have devastating consequences on their crops.
Last year Nepal's winter rains failed altogether, leading to severe water shortages and power
cuts of up to 18 hours a day in the capital as hydro-electric projects struggled to meet
demand.
Nepal could face drier phases during dry seasons with wetter monsoon (as much as three
times the current level of rainfall) with chances of flooding and landslides during rainy
seasons with subsequent impacts on agriculture and livelihoods(Alan M, Regmi B.R., 2005).
The effect of unprecedented climatic codition over past years have been observed
detrimental to agriculture production and productivity in Nepal.
Cold wave in Nepal in 1997/98 had negative impacts on agricultural productivity and
showed reduction in the production of crops by 27.8, 36.5, 11.2, 30, 37.6 and 38 % in potato,
toria, sarson, rayo, lentil and chickpea respectively (Source: NARC annual reports from
1987/88 to 1997/98,).
Eastern Terai faced rain deficit in the year 2005/06 by early monsoon and crop production
reduced by 12.5% on national basis. Nearly 10% of agri- land were left fallow due to rain
deficit while mid western Terai faced heavy rain with floods, which reduced production by
30% in the year (Regmi, 2007).
It has long been recognized that if society could have advance information on weather, the
adverse effects associated with it could be minimized. Had we been able to forecast the
changes quite advance and advice the farmers to cope with the changes, there could not have
been such a great loss in production and productivity of agricultural crops. Nepal has not
been able to cope with such cliamte and weather related problems due to its poor data base
and weak advance weather forecasting mechanism. The agromet advisory system is not well
established and needs to be strenghthened at different levels.
Climate determines the general adaptation of ecosystems and land use activities at any
location. Year to year recurrences of extreme climate events such as drought, flooding,
hot/cold spells, etc. often have far reaching consequences in agriculture. Advance warning of
such events through climate prediction can minimize various socio-economic problems
which are often associated with such events. The severity of the socio-economic impacts of
climate related stress varies significantly from one region to another. The impacts are
generally more severe in Nepal where technological adaptations are often very low, and
where most of the agricultural systems are rain dependent.
136 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
The unprecedented monsoon behavior has prompted farming communities to search for
advance measures to manage the risks of change in weather and climate. Like in other
developing countries, Nepalese farmers have developed their own methods of climate and
weather forecasting based on their experience, religious beliefs and observations of their
environment to anticipate weather patterns and they rely on interpretation of cloud color and
form, animal behavior and flowering of certain plants, among others, as indicators of
seasonal conditions. The prevalence of traditional forecasting methods reflects the demand
for advance climate information to cope with climate variability in planning for agricultural
operations .
Direct effect on
Crop Growth
� Physiology
� Phenology
� Morphology
Indirect effects
� Soil fertility
� Irrigation availability
� Pests
� Floods & Droughts
� Sea level rise
Socio-economics
� Food demand
� Cost & benefits
� Policy
� Trade
� Farmers
response
Agricultural
Production &
Vulnerability
Human intervention
Adaptation strategies
Mitigation Strategies
Climate Change
cHANGE
Figure 1. Assessment of Vulnerability of Agriculture to
Climate Change
Nepal 137
Such global climatic changes will affect agriculture through their direct and indirect effects
on crops, soils, livestock and pests. Increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide has a fertilization
effect on crops with C3 photosynthetic pathway and thus promotes their growth and
productivity. Increase in temperature, depending upon the current ambient temperature, on
the other hand, can reduce crop duration, increase crop respiration rates, alter photosynthate
partitioning to economic products, effect the survival and distributions of pest populations
thus developing new equilibrium between crops and pests, hasten nutrient mineralisation in
soils, decrease fertilizer use efficiencies, and increase evapo-transpiration. Indirectly, there
may be considerable effects on land use due to snow melt, availability of irrigation,
frequency and intensity of inter- and intra-seasonal droughts and floods, soil organic matter
transformations, soil erosion, changes in pest profiles, decline in arable areas due to
submergence of coastal lands, and availability of energy. All these can have tremendous
impact on agricultural production and hence food security of any region. Equally important
determinants of food supply are socio-economic environment including government policies,
capital availability, prices and returns, infrastructure, land reforms, and inter- and intra-
national trade that might be effected by climatic change.
Agriculture and its economy in Nepal is strongly influenced by the vagaries of the weather.
The farming community is in great need to have access to weather information to plan and
manage their crops and their livelihoods. One of the important communication systems
which is gaining increased acceptance in the recent times is the Internet. It is the need of the
day to provide valuable agro-meteorological information to the users through an interface
like Crop Weather Outlook of SAARC countries and exchange of meteorological data
between national Meteorological Services of WMO member countries.
Long-range forecasts could provide the indications of monsoon rainfall variability at local
level or at farm level. Established crop calendars and yields would get disturbed by the
following aberrations in rainfall behavior :
1. The commencement of rains may be quite early or considerably delayed.
2. There may be prolonged “breaks” during the cropping season.
3. There may be spatial and/or temporal aberrations.
4. The rains may terminate considerably early or continue for longer periods.
5. The rains may be violent or week.
To deal with these aberrations, farmers could respond to forecasts to undertake these
measures:
• Change variety for one with shorter or longer duration;
• Change crop species or mix of species, especially combinations of cash and food
crops;
• Implement soil and water conservation techniques;
• Increase or decrease area planted, either total, by crop, or by upland or lowland
location;
• Adjust timing of land preparation;
• Increase or decrease borrowing for inputs;
• Sell or purchase livestock depending on anticipated cost and availability of feed; or
138 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
• Remain in village or migrate to seek off-farm employment or better grazing for
livestock.
Whereas at regional level or district level it can help policy makers to take certain initiatives
on the following aspects to mitigate the adverse situation:
1. Water Resources Management: Water resources managers at catchment, watershed and
river basin levels could undertake proactive measures to manage water resources. There is a
potential possibility of introducing water budgeting arrangements to prioritize water use and
allocate water resources among various competitive users. In areas where water availability
for irrigation purposes is scarce, a campaign can be launched to advise farmers to provide
minimum irrigation only at the critical crop stages. The lead-time available could be used for
augmenting water resources by constructing small-scale water harvesting structures and
rehabilitating old irrigation structures.
2. Compensatory Cropping Program: This has two dimensions. One is to try to compensate
for crop loss in the most severely affected areas by intensifying the production program and
increasing yield in the most favorable areas where there are expectations of good rainfall and
availability of assured irrigation sources. The second is to make up the crop loss in the same
area by taking up short duration cultivars.
3. Alternate Cropping Strategy: This involves shifting of crops which could be grown on the
availability of soil moisture during less than normal conditions. The success of this strategy
could depend on government intervention in providing input and market support to farmers.
The above-mentioned approaches need to be matched with irrigation potential and
agroclimatic zonation maps to evolve suitable cropping patterns. District level institutions
would have lead-time to provide agricultural input support, credit arrangements and
technical advisories to enable farmers to undertake contingency crop plans. District level
institutions could also provide support for marketing the agricultural products.
Similarly central level institutions could provide necessary support to district level
institutions and farming communities in terms of resources. Governments can undertake
policy decisions to map out potential impact areas and target resources for mitigation
measures. They could also undertake policy measures for export and import of agricultural
commodities. Governments could undertake measures to plan for good logistics such as
procurement of food grains, transport and distribution to potentially affected areas.
The broad strategy of such a project in a specific region would be to:
1. Forecast seasonal onset of monsoon indicating the dates of monsoon onset at ten day
intervals
2. Forecast monthly rainfall
3. Seasonal cumulative rainfall status for the entire season.
4. Determine the baseline relationship between climate variability and crop production
in the region
Nepal 139
5. Establish awareness in the region of the potential for climate predictions to be used
to increase crop yield
6. Mobilize a multi-disciplinary team to design and execute the project in the region
7. Identify agriculture practices in the region that may be modified through knowledge
of future climate variations
8. Design a project in which the impact of changes in agriculture practice can be
quantified;
5.3.6 Existing Agrometeorological Advisory Service in Nepal
Agrometeorological advisory service (AAS) in Nepal is at rudimentary stage. It is not well
organized and what so ever exists is not easily accessible to the end users. The agency
responsible for this service is Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) of the
Government of Nepal. Government of Nepal started hydrological and meteorological
activities in an organized way in 1962. The activities were initiated as a section under the
Department of Electricity. The section was subsequently transferred to the Department of
Irrigation and was ultimately upgraded to Department status in 1988. The department with
headquarters in Kathmandu has three basin offices: Karnali Basin Office in Surkhet,
Narayani Basin Office in Pokhara and Kosi Basin Office in Dharan. DHM has a mandate
from Government of Nepal to monitor all the hydrological and meteorological activities in
Nepal. The scope of work includes the monitoring of river hydrology, climate,
agrometeorology, sediment, air quality, water quality, limnology, snow hydrology,
glaciology, and wind and solar energy. General and aviation weather forecasts are the
regular services provided by DHM. As a member of the World Meteorological Organisation
(WMO), DHM contributes to the global exchange of meteorological data on a regular basis.
The department is also a focal point for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) and for the meteorological activities of the South Asian Association for Regional Co-
operation (SAARC). The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has recognized
DHM as an authority to provide meteorological services for international flights.
Agromet Section of DHM is responsible for preparation of crop calendar of different
weather to help agriculture.
DHM maintains nation-wide networks of 337 precipitation stations, 154 hydrometric
stations, 20 sediment stations, 68 climatic stations, 22 agrometeorological stations, 9
synoptic stations and 6 Aero-synoptic stations (Appendix 1). Data are made available to
users through published reports, bulletins, and computer media outputs such as hard copies
or diskettes. DHM publishes data on an annual basis. Most of the sections under DHM are
equipped with personal computer systems connected through a network. The computers are
not only used for database management but also for hydrological and meteorological
modelling and analyses. Hydrological and meteorological studies are produced as reports
every year. Recent publications include the reports on low flow analyses, flood risk
assessment and integrated database developments.
DHM is equipped with several data collection facilities based on different technologies, such
as, wireless communication, meteor burst, Satellite Distribution Information System
140 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
(SADIS), Weather Fax, and satellite picture receiving system. Wireless system connects
Kathmandu to 54 stations spread over Nepal for climatic and hydrological data whereas the
Global Telecommunication System (GTS) links DHM to the global meteorological
community.
DHM actively participates in the programs of relevant international organizations, such as,
the UNESCO's International Hydrological Program (IHP) and WMO's Operational
Hydrology Program (OHP). In the past, DHM has hosted several regional and international
workshops, symposia, seminars and meetings on different aspects of meteorology,
hydrology, sediment, and snow hydrology. The department is also a focal point for the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and for the meteorological activities of
the South Asian Association for Regional Co-operation (SAARC). The International Civil
Aviation Organization (ICAO) has recognized DHM as an authority to provide
meteorological services for international flights.
DHM publishes Hydrological and Meteorological Data, Water Quality and Air Pollution
data, Weekly, Monthly, and Quarterly Weather Report, Weather Information for Civil
Aviation and 24 hours Weather Forecasting for General Public. It also publishes monthly
weather summary report covering different climatic parameters. Weather Information for
Civil Aviation and 24 hours Weather Forecasting for General Public is broadcast through
radio Nepal and Nepal Television daily. Sample weather bulletins are attached on Appendix
2-6.
The other agency involved in some sort of agrometeorological activities is the Nepal
Agricultural Research Council (NARC). There are four regional agricultural research
stations and 13 agricultural stations under NARC. It has meteorological stations in each farm
located throughout the country. Presently climate and weather data are recorded and
alnalyzed for research purpose only. This analysis could be made applicable to the local
level farmers through weather forecast bulletins. The dilemma is that the Department of
Agriculture (DOA), NARC and DHM have no coordination and cooperation in providing
AAS to the farmers. DOA does provide advisory service to the farmers through its regular
network and has no specific AAS prevalent in Nepal. The extension and communication
service that includes AAS at different level is as follows.
5.3.6.1 National level:
DHM publishes weekly, monthly, and quarterly weather report, crop calendar and 24 hours
weather forecasting for general public. It also publishes monthly weather summary report
covering different climatic parameters. Prime users of these bulletins are Ministry of
Agriculture and Cooperatives, DOA, researchers, mountaineers, NGOs and other
stakeholders.
Bimonthly agriculture bulletin published by Agriculture Information and Communication
center under Ministry of Agriculture and Communication highlights major climatic issues
among other technical issues in agriculture. The end users of this bulletin are the farmers
Commodity Program Directorates under DOA also publish quarterly and annual bulletins
covering among other issues agrometeorological data relevant to the concerned field.
Nepal 141
NARC also publishes its quarterly and annual reports covering agrometeorological data of
the research stations and its application in research and extension.
Agriculture Extension Directorate (AED) under DOA collects weekly weather reports from
the districts through District Agricultural Development Offices (DADO) on general
observation basis. It compiles and interprets data and present in a bulletin published
quarterly/annually. AED has mentained Agriculture Knowledge Bank where one can access
relevant information on agriculture including agrometeorological advices.
5.3.6.2 Regional level:
There are five development regions in Nepal, Each Regional Directorate under DOA
publishes its quarterly bulletin covering agrometeorological issues of the region. Similarly,
four Regional Agricultural Research Stations also publish research bulletins covering
agrometeorological issues among others.
Co-work/Co-ordination Line of Command Information Flow
Figure 2: Existing AAS Generation and Dissemination Mechanism
Ministry of agriculture and Cooperatives ( GON)
Department of Agriculture
Directorate of agriculture Extension
District Agriculture Development Office
Agriculture Service Centers
Nepal Agriculture Research Council
Agriculture Research Stations
NGOs
Ministry of Science and Technology (GON)
337 precipitation stations, 154 hydrometric stations, 20 sediment stations, 68 climatic stations, 22 agrometeorological stations, 9 synoptic stations and 6 Aero-synoptic stations
Department of Hydrology and Meteorology
Mass Media and ICT
Rural Telecenters
Ministry of Environment (GON)
Farmers Groups/Farmers
142 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
5.3.6.3 District level:
District level organization of DOA is DADO which is responsible for the implementation of
agricultural programs in the district. The grass root level organization for agriculture is
Agriculture Service Center (ASC) under DADO. The number of ASC is 4-6 per district.
DADO publishes different extension materials covering farming technology and advices to
the farmers. It also broadcasts advice to the farmers through FM radios and cable televisions.
Existing agrometeorological advisory mechanism at different level is presented in Figure 2.
The Government of Nepal has been focusing on strengthening farmers' knowledge on
sustainable farm practices in their overall efforts to augment food security of the nation.
Nepalese farmers are facing a multitude of problems to sustain crop productivity. Many of
these problems are linked to variability in weather and climate. To address this issue
effectively, the Government should provide AAS to generate agro-meteorological
information (weather forecast and agro-met-advisories) and develop suitable dissemination
system, to the farming community in order to improve crop/livestock productivity. Presently
DHM publishes weather reports through the center only. It does not have its regional level
and district level institutions. Though DOA has its wide network right from ASC (cluster of
VDCs). to the center, no work is done specifically to agromet advice to the farmers. The
institutions under DOA involved in extension activities do include agromet advices in their
extension publications. Regular publication of agromet bulletins from central and district
level with the use of weather data from DHM and its stations will enable farmers to take
advantage of good weather and minimise the adverse impact of bad weather on crops.
Presently, the weather based agro-advisories do not exist and overall agricultural advices are
disseminated to the farming community at district level through word of mouth and mass
media (Radio, Print and TV). But there exists a wide information gap between information
generator, processor and user. The delivery or collection of the information by the
generator/processor in a timely manner needs to be stepped up. AED under DOA should be
made responsible to bridge the information gap by exploiting advances in Information
Technology (IT), which has witnessed incremental use in dissemination of information in the
recent past.
5.3.6.4 Weather Observing System:
Weather observation is carried out through 337 precipitation stations, 154 hydrometric
stations, 20 sediment stations, 68 climatic stations, 22 agrometeorological stations, 9
synoptic stations and 6 Aero-synoptic stations run by DHM. There are 13 observatories run
by NARC for research purpose. Similarly each government farms of DOA has
agrometeorological observatory to record climatic data. All these sources collect climatic
data and make use of their own. These have to be integrated to yield AAS to be used for
weather forecasting and dissemination to the end users.
5.3.6.5 Weather Forecasting System:
Weather forecasting is done by DHM through mass media like radio, TV and newspapers for
24 hours. Weekly, monthly and quarterly weather report of DHM can also be accessed
through different media. But weather forecasting of longer duration is erratic. DHM makes
announcement of longer duration forecasts through mass media in case of emergency and
Nepal 143
long spell of detrimental weather conditions. Regular weather forecasting of longer duration
is not yet practiced. The reliability of weather forecast through DHM is found poor. DHM
should expand its technical capability with collaboration from different International and
Regional Organizations working in the field of agrometeorology.
5.3.6.6 Advisory Dissemination Mechanism:
Weather based advisory dissemination mechanism is very weak in Nepal. A strong
mechanism should be developed to deliver weather based advisories to the farmers through
mass media dissemination, Internet etc. as well as through district level intermediaries. The
advisories should be communicated through multi-channel dissemination system including
Radio, television channels, FM radios, print media (newspapers), Internet and Rural
Telecenters of Ministry of Science and Technology, Cell Phone-SMS, ASCs ,DADOs,
NGOs etc. A mechanism has to be developed to obtain feedback from the farmers on quality
of weather forecast, relevance and content of agro-met advisory and effectiveness of
information dissemination system. The weather based information, generated by 337
precipitation stations, 154 hydrometric stations, 20 sediment stations, 68 climatic stations, 22
agrometeorological stations, 9 synoptic stations and 6 Aero-synoptic stations are being
analyzed and disseminated to the end users through published reports, bulletins, and
computer media outputs such as hard copies or diskettes and mass media dissemination,
Internet etc. A separate package of AAS has to be prepared by DHM with coordination from
NARC and DOA. The dissemination mechanism needs to be scaled up to communicate
advisories through multi-channel dissemination system including Radio, TV, print media,
Cell Phone-SMS, Farmers Call Centers, Internet and Rural Telecenters of Department of
Science and Technology In order to communicate agromet advisory in real time to the rural
farmers in every district of the country District Agriculture Development Committees
comprising all the stakeholders should be made responsible for strengthening the agro-met
advisory service. Meteorological information may be linked with agri-productivity measures
like farming inputs/ precautions/ package of practices –information and guidance.
• Supplementing necessary information on part of meteorology into the complete
solution for small farmers through integrated framework of the related stakeholders
like NARC, Agricultural Institutes/Colleges etc.
• Weather warnings to ensure minimal losses due to disasters. Establishing a two way
communication linkage through ASCs so that agri-related queries may be attended
to and replied.
• A mechanism may also be developed to obtain regular feedback based on the skill of
forecast, quality and relevance of advisories, problem solving by interactive mode,
answering questions of common interest through bulletins, accessibility to
information/ experts via ICT.
• ASCs may communicate local level observation (Meteorological, Crop, Soil,
Pest/Disease, Sowing, Harvesting and Other prevailing intercultural operations) to
the knowledge pool for generating relevant and specific advisories.
• The training needs of end-users and of the various intermediaries that provide them
with advisory services should be assessed and training may also be planned for the
farmers on use of agro-met advisories in farm management through DADOs.
144 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
• We must consider how diverse types of agrometeorological data be integrated into
useful information that responds to the often-dissimilar application needs of farming
communities.
• Assess the types of information needed by diverse groups of end-users and, given
their different farming, socio-economic and cultural systems, find out the
appropriate communication technologies to reach them
• Package of agrometeorological advice should include
• Pesticides application – prediction of pests and diseases incidence /chance of
epidemic occurrence, when to apply, prepone/ postponing application based on
sensitive weather elements.
• Fertilizer application – when to apply i.e. pre-poning/ postponing application based
on sensitive weather elements.
• Application of Irrigation – when and how much to apply i.e. pre-poning /post-
poning application based on past weather as well as weather forecast.
• Date of sowing
• Date of harvest
• Incidence of cold / heat waves
• Incidence of frost and fog
• Incidence of agricultural drought
• Contingent crop planning
• Selection of cultivars
5.3.7 Proposed District Level Agrometeorology Advisory Service
District level agrometeorology advisory service does not exist in Nepal. District level
institutions along with their service centers are the main executing bodies of developmental
works in Nepal. Agricultural advice and information to the farmers are transferred through
different media and techniques by these institutions. It is proposed that DADO be equipped
with Agrometeorological Advisory Unit (AMU). AMU receives district wise agro-met data
through DHM field stations and NARC/DOA stations within the district. Furthermore, AMU
receives district wise medium range weather forecast by DHM Meteorology Division. The
unit then analyses and interprets so collected weather and meteorological information and
prepares district specific advisories. The package of these advisories shall then be
disseminated through different mass media, ICT and word of mouth communication.
Farmers feedback will be regularly entertained and taken into consideration while preparing
district specific advisories. The proposed model is presented in Figure: 3
5.3.8 Proposed organizational set up for AAS
i. AAS Steering Committee Secretary, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives- Chairman
Secretary, Ministry of Environment- Member
Secretary, Ministry of Science and Technology- Member
Executive Director, NARC- Member
Joint Secretary, Gender Equity and Environment Division- Member Secretary
Nepal 145
ii. Central AAS Implementation Committee
Program Director, AED, DOA- Coordinator
Division Chief, Meteorology Division, DHM- Member
Division Chief, NARC Environment Division- Member
Section Chief, AAS Unit, AED- Member Secretary
iii. District AAS implementation Committee District Agriculture Development Officer- Coordinator
Chief, DHM Weather Station- Member
Chief, NARC Research Station- Member
Chief, DOA Farm Center- Member
District AAS Unit Chief (Aronomist/Plant Protection Officer)- Member Secretary
District Agriculture Development
Office
Agriculture Service Centers
Dissemination of Agro-met Advisories
Feedback Analysis
NARC/DOA Stations within
district
Preparation of district specific advisories: Agro-met unit of
DADO
Farmers Groups/Farmers
through mass media, ICT, personal contact
DHM Field Stations within
district
Preparation of District wise Medium Range Weather
Forecast by DHM Meteorology Division
Department of Hydrology and Meteorology
District wise Agro-met Data
Figure 3: Proposed District Level Agrometeorology Advisory Service
146 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
5.3.9 Recommendations
i. Establish an effective and efficient Agrometeorology Advisory Service Unit at
National and District level within the extension service delivery mechanism of
Nepal.
ii. Formation of AAS Steering Committee under the chairmanship of Secretary,
Ministry of Agriculture and Cooeratives to coordinate and decide about policy issues
in AAS.
iii. Use of decision-support systems should be promoted as an effective means of
providing output of integrated climate-agronomic information
iv. Research into the introduction of new scientific-based weather and climate forecast
services, which provide accurate and reliable outlooks into the local indigenous
cultural traditions in many poor rural areas;
v. Increased attention to facilitate access by the rural poor to technical expertise and
technological innovations; Development of agrometeorological products with an
emphasis on local user communities.
vi. Development of capacity building of persons involved in agromet service and
farmers as well.
vii. Application of remote sensing techniques for AAS andOexploitation of rapid
innovation of technologies for the benefit of agromet service.
viii. Development of crop weather models for AAS.
ix. Generation of advisories for different areas- Horticulture, Crops, Livestock,
Fisheries, Post Harvest and Storage.
x. Exchange of data and Agricultural Meteorological knowledge between member
countries and also the Inter-Regional exchange of these materials.
xi. Use of Meteorological forecasts and short- and long-term Agricultural
Meteorological recommendations should be included in specialized bulletins for
further notice.
5.3.10 References
APN-QCR 2006. International Workshop on coping with Agrometeorological Risks and
Uncertainties: Challenges and Opportunities, Final Report submitted to APN, pp 12
Climate and Hydrological Atlas of Nepal, www.icimod.org
Climate change mitigation and adaptation in agriculture, forestry and fisheries,
ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/009/j9271e/j9271e.pdf
Climate information for adaptation and development needs, World Meteorological
Organization, 2007
Climate Risk Management in Nepal, www.fao.org/climatechange
Dr. Steve Jennings John Magrath, October 2009, What Happened to the Seasons?, OXFAM
Research Report
Nepal 147
Eakin, H. 2000, Seasonal climate forecasting and the relevance of local knowledge. Physical
Geography
Exchanging Meteorological Data, Guidelines on Relationships in Commercial
Meteorological Activities, WMO Policy and Practice, World Meteorological
Organization - Geneva- Switzerland, 1996
Filippo Giorgi, Colin Jones andGhassem R.Asrar, Addressing Climate Information Needs at
the Regional Level: The COEDEX Framework, WMO Bulletin 58(3) July 2009
IPCC, 2001. Climate change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Inter-
Governmental Panel on Climate Change. Report of the Working Group II.
Cambridge, UK, p 967.
L.S. RATHORE AND C.J. STIGTER, Challenges To Coping Strategies With
Agrometeorological Risks And Uncertainties In Asian Regions
Lal, M., Nozawa, T., Emori, S., Harasawa, H., Takahashi, K., Kimoto, M., Abe-Ouchi, A.,
Nakajima, T., Takemura, T. and Numaguti, A. 2001. Future Climate Change:
Implications for Indian Summer Monsoon and its Variability. Current Sci., 81: pp
1196-1207.
Malla, G. 2008. Climate Change and its Impact on Nepalese Agriculture. The Journal of
Agriculture and Environment. Volume 9, pp 62-71.
N. Chattopadhyay, Agrometeorological Service in India and Associated RA Countries
Official website of Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, www.dhm.gov.np
Roger E. Rivero Vega, April 2008, Workbook on Climate Change Impact Assessment in
Agriculture, Report of the Chairman of Working Group on Agricultural
Meteorology of RA II, 5-11 December 2008, Tashkent, Uzbekistan
Sukardi, W. 1998 The Meteorological Meaning of Traditional Time Reckoning: Wariga and
its Applications. Journal Agromet. XIII(1), pp.15-24. Indonesian Association of
Agricultural Meteorology.
Watson, R.T., Zinyowera, M.C. and Moss, R.H. (Eds). 1998. The Regional Impacts of
Climate Change. An Assessment of Vulnerability. IPCC II Report. Cambridge
University Press, pp 517
Weiss, L., Van Crowder, M., Bernardi 1999. Communicating Agrometeorological
Information, Sustainable Development Department. www.fao.org
148 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
Appendix 1: Synoptic Meteorological Stations, Nepal
Nepal 149
Appendix 2 : Morning Weather Forecast
150 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
Appendix 3: 24 Hour Weather Forecast
Nepal 151
Appendix 4: Weather Bulletin
152 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
Appendix 5: Weather Forecast for Mountaineering Expedition
Nepal 153
Appendix 6: Preliminary Weather Summary
154 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
Nepal 155
156 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
Nepal 157
Appendix 7: Normal (Average) Maximum, Minimum Temperature (°C) and Rainfall
(mm) through 2000 year
158 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
Dr. Muhammad Asim
Pakistan Agricultural Research Council
Islamabad, Pakistan
5.4 PAKISTAN
160 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
Pakistan 161
5.4.1 Introduction
The Islamic Republic of Pakistan covers 79.61 million hectares (ha) geographical area
situated between latitude of 24 and 37 degree North and longitude of 62 and 75 degree East.
The country exhibited a great variation in its landscape from Indus plains to deserts, from
forests to Salt range and Potohar Plateau, from the western bordering highlands to
Balochistan Plateau, from the northern high mountain ranges and snow-covered peaks to the
coastal areas of the Arabian Sea in the south.
Pakistan is a land of great topographic and climatic contrasts. Low rainfall and extreme
variations in temperature characterize the climate in Pakistan. About 60 per cent of the total
land area is classified as arid, which receives less than 200 mm annual rainfall. The southern
slopes of the Himalayas and the sub mountainous tract receive higher rainfall from 760 to
1270 mm. Some areas adjoining Kashmir receive more than 2000 mm precipitation per
annum. The temperatures can be as low as -27° Celsius in the north (at Skardu) in winter and
as high as 52° Celsius in the southern parts during summer.
Pakistan is basically an agricultural country and its economy mainly revolves around this
sector. Though, the share of agriculture in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has been
declining, it still accounted for 21.8 percent (%) of GDP during 2008-09. Despite its
declining share it remains the single largest sector of Pakistan’s economy and an
overwhelming majority of the population (Table 1) depends directly or indirectly on income
streams generated by the agriculture sector. Rural areas in the country are home to around 65
percent of its population (Table 1) and agriculture is their principal livelihood, employing
over 60 percent of the labor force.
Table 1: Population distribution by Rural / Urban areas
Year Rural Areas Urban Areas Estimated Population (million)
1999 91.94 44.47 136.41
2000 93.75 45.66 139.41
2001 95.52 46.83 142.35
2002 97.27 48.02 145.28
2003 99.00 49.21 148.21
2004 100.30 50.80 151.09
2005 101.55 52.41 153.96
2006 102.75 54.02 156.77
2007 103.91 55.66 159.57
2008 105.06 57.32 162.37
(Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan 2008-09)
The Green Revolution during the last century substantially increased food grain productivity,
and improved food security and rural wages. The challenge is to replicate and sustain these
achievements during the future with a more variable and unpredictable climate.
In Pakistan, like in many other regions, climatic conditions are highly variable and climate
can be one of the known biggest risks factors impacting on agricultural system’s
performance and management. Climate change has started to measurably affect agricultural
production. There is enormous year-to-year climate variability, in terms of seasonal and in-
season temperature and rainfall variability. Elevated temperatures and drought are among the
162 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
biggest issues in agriculture. Occurrence of these climatic events represents the risk that
existing agricultural activity may not be sustainable, given spatial and temporal variations in
rainfall and other climatic conditions.
5.4.2 Climate and Crop Productivity
5.4.2.1 Crop Situation
There are two principal crop seasons in Pakistan. One as summer, which is locally called as
kharif season starting from June and extended until September and other as winter, locally
known as rabi season, the duration of which is from October to May. Rice, sugarcane,
cotton, maize, mong, mash, bajra and jowar are important “Kharif" crops while wheat, gram,
lentil (masoor), tobacco, rapeseed, barley and mustard are main "Rabi" crops. Major crops,
such as, wheat, rice, cotton and sugarcane account for 89.1 percent of the value added in the
major crops. The value added in major crops accounts for 33.4 percent of the value added in
overall agriculture. Thus, the four major crops (wheat, rice, cotton, and sugarcane), on
average, contribute 29.8 percent to the value added in overall agriculture and 6.5 percent to
GDP. The minor crops account for 12.0 percent of the value added in overall agriculture.
Livestock contributes 51.8 percent to agricultural value added – much more than the
combined contribution of major and minor crops (45.4%) (Anonymous, 2009).
5.4.2.2 Climate and Crop Productivity: A Case Study on Wheat in Rainfed
Area
5.4.2.2.1 Rainfall Pattern Over Time in Rainfed Area
In Pakistan, wheat is the most important crop being the staple diet and is cultivated on the
largest acreages (8.5 million hectares) among cereals in almost every part of the country. It
contributes 13.1 percent to the value added in agriculture and 2.8 percent to GDP
(Anonymous, 2009).
Over the past three decades, increased wheat productivity occurred largely due to the
development of high-yielding cultivars and increased fertilizer use (Curtis, 2002). With the
introduction of semi-dwarf wheat cultivars, wheat productivity has been increased in all the
major cropping systems of rainfed and irrigated areas, representing the diverse and varying
agro-ecological suitable conditions (Aslam et al., 1989). However, in a given environment,
wheat growth, development and yield depend on suitable cultivars (Grausgruber et al.,
2000), management practices and weather conditions (Anda and Antons, 2004).
In Pakistan, wheat is sown over a wide range of sowing date in various cropping systems of
rainfed and irrigated areas. This variation in sowing time is caused by various factors such as
erratic rainfall, late planting due to harvesting of preceding crop, lack or unavailability of
farm machinery and inputs, etc. The sowing window of wheat in Pakistan generally starts
from mid of October and extends until the end of December. Delayed planting reduces wheat
yield almost linearly at the rate of 42 kg/ha/day after optimum sowing time generally quoted
as 10th November (Khan, 2003).
Pakistan 163
Two distinct rainfall patterns are observed in rainfed areas of Islamabad (Figure 1). The
analysis of long term rainfall data revealed that in the rainfed area of Islamabad, about 60 %
rainfall occurred during summer and 40 % during winter season (Figure 1). Analysis also
revealed that the long-term rainfall pattern are showing increasing trends in case of
occurrence of summer rainfall in rainfed areas whereas, it showed a slight decreasing trend
in winter rainfall over this period of 47 years. During summer period it is observed that
rainfall intensity in the month of July has increased overtime whereas, the month of
September has shown a decrease in rainfall intensity. This September rainfall decrease is of
great concern as it could provide better residual moisture for sowing of wheat during
October (Figure 2).
Figure 1. Long term rainfall pattern in Islamabad over time (1961-2007). Actual rainfall data
was plotted in an aggregated polynomial format, aggregated over a span of 3 years
and each data point with a range bar.
Figure 2. Long term rainfall pattern in Islamabad during the months of July, August and
September from 1961-2007. Actual rainfall data was plotted in an aggregated
polynomial format, aggregated over a span of 3 years.
164 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
5.4.2.2.2 Wheat and Climate Variability
The weak monsoon during the entire month of September left much of the wheat region with
inadequate soil moisture and dry conditions in rainfed areas. Very low precipitation has also
been observed in most wheat growing areas during the sowing and establishment period of
mid-October to mid-December, and dryness continued through January. This variability in
rainfall during the crop duration from sowing to harvesting resulted in variable yield as the
crop is exposed to erratic climatic conditions. To improve climate risk related decision
making at the farm level, farmers need to gain a better understanding of the climate factors
that affect crop yield in their environment (Table 2). This will allow decision makers to
identify possible management options based on climate information or seasonal climate
forecasts.
Table 2: Wheat: as affected by changes in weather
Cropping Year Yield (kg/ha) % change Climate Events
1999 1319 -25 Drought
2000 534 -70 Drought + Terminal heat stress
2001 717 -59 Drought +Terminal heat stress
2002 1310 -25 Drought
2003 1321 -25 Terminal heat stress
2004 1730 -1 -
2005 1354 -23 Terminal heat stress
2006 1755 = Bumper Crop Year
2007 1205 -31 Frost + Terminal heat stress
2008 1465 -17 -
5.4.2.2.3 Effective Climate Risk Management
Understanding climatic variability is one of the many risk management tools that play an
important role in agricultural decision making. An appropriate approach is to engage all the
stakeholders in well-informed negotiations so that the farmers, the primary producers, can
be educated and encouraged to adopt self-reliant approaches in managing the risks
associated with climatic variability.
Current pattern of climate change (floods, drought, temperature increase / change during
critical crop growth stages, etc.) increases the urgency for implementing measures that are
needed to ignite agricultural growth in the country with major emphasis on following areas:
• Enhancing resilience in agriculture through research on and dissemination of
innovative production technologies and management options
• Use of biotechnology in developing new, more resilient crop varieties, and
• Provision of better climate information through improved forecasting and early
warning systems
Climate can be understood most easily in terms of annual or seasonal averages of
temperature and precipitation etc. From a risk management perspective we need to
understand existing climate variability.
Pakistan 165
There is enormous year-to-year climate variability (Figure 3, 4, 5 and 6) which is a major
source of wheat production variability (Table 1). So, the effective Climate Risk Management
requires an understanding of management options in response to climate information.
The Southern Oscillation (SO) is one of the known most important influence on rainfall
variability between years. It has a strong influence on rainfall particularly in monsoon. SO is
a see-saw of air pressure between the eastern and western Pacific and its strength is
measured as an index known as Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) which reflects the
difference in atmospheric pressure between Darwin and Tahiti. The phases of the SOI were
defined by Stone et al. (1996), who used cluster analysis to group two-month pairs of the
Figure 3. Long term mean temperature pattern in Islamabad during the wheat growing
season (October – April) 1961-2007.
Figure 4. Recent temperature variability during wheat growing season (October – April) in
Islamabad region.
Mean Seasonal (Oct-Apr) Temperature
15.0
15.5
16.0
16.5
17.0
17.5
18.0
18.5
19.0
19.5
1961-62 1966-67 1971-72 1976-77 1981-82 1986-87 1991-92 1996-97 2001-02 2006-07
Temperature (C)
I sl a ma ba d
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
October November December Januar y Febr uar y Mar ch Apr i l
Normals 2006-07 2007-08
166 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
Seasonal (Oct-Apr) Rainfall
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
900.0
1961-62 1966-67 1971-72 1976-77 1981-82 1986-87 1991-92 1996-97 2001-02 2006-07
Rainfall (mm)
Figure 5. Long term rainfall pattern in Islamabad region during the wheat growing season
(October – April) 1961-2007.
Islamabad
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
October November December January February March April
Rainfa
ll (m
m)
Normals 2006-07 2007-08
Figure 6. Recent rainfall variability during wheat growing season (October – April) in
Islamabad region.
Pakistan 167
Figure 7. Five phases of SOI as defined by Stones et al. 1996
SOI from 1882 to 1991 into five clusters as phases (Figure 7). The phases are:
Phase 1 consistently negative,
Phase 2 consistently positive,
Phase 3 falling,
Phase 4 rising,
Phase 5 consistently near zero.
Relationship was examined between rainfall variability in Islamabad region during October-
November (wheat crop establishment period) and monthly SOI phase in July. Analysis was
done using actual rainfall during 1961-2008. The analysis revealed that Islamabad zone has
44% and 35% possibility of exceeding median rainfall with consistently near zero and
consistently negative SOI phases, respectively during July (Figure 8).
168 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
5.4.2.2.3.1 Understanding Climate Variability to Sustain Wheat Productivity
Understanding climatic variability is one of many risk management tools that play an
important role in agricultural decision making. Understanding when, where and how to use
this tools is a complex and multi-dimensional problem.
Figure 8. Relationship between rainfall variability during October-November and monthly
SOI phase in July. The horizontal line indicated median rainfall for that period.
Effective climate risk management also requires an understanding of management options in
response to climate information. To do this effectively an appropriate approach, that brings
together disciplines like climate science and agricultural systems science, is applied. In this
approach climate science provides an insight into climatic processes while agricultural
systems science translates this insight into management options. This tool can be used
successfully to understand crop bio-dynamism, climate and cop management simultaneously
in a given environment.
5.4.2.2.3.1.1 Use of Crop Simulation Models: An appropriate tool to understand Crop
systems in relation to Climate
Crop growth simulation models have emerged as a valuable tool for enhancing our
understanding of crop ecology and physiology In this case study, the parameterized
Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) (McCown et al., 1996) wheat module
(Table 3) was used as a tool for selecting optimum sowing time and cultivar to enhance the
resilience in wheat based cropping system of the area against climatic variability.
Phase 5 Phase 1
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Rainfall (m
m)
Pakistan 169
Table 3. Performance of Parameterized APSIM-Wheat module under local conditions for
Grain Yield (kg ha-1)
Cultivar /
Advance
Line
Measured Simulated
Bias t Regression
Equation r2
Mean SD Mean SD
Wafaq-2001 3245 485 3177 444 -68 -0.36 S=0.88M+324.3 0.92
Chakwal-97 3056 542 3017 464 -39 -0.19 S=0.83M+473.5 0.94
NR-55 2729 466 2729 483 0.2 0.001 S=1.02M-61.73 0.98
NR-232 3062 524 3067 462 5 0.02 S=0.83M+528.5 0.88
Margalla-99 2938 559 3067 455 129 0.54 S=0.69M+1028 0.73
The significance of similar exercise has been reported by Aggarwal et al. (1994), Hunt et al.
(1996), Meinke et al. (1997, 2001) and many others. The APSIM model was used to analyze
the impact of SOI phases on wheat yield of various genotypes (Figure 9) and sowing time
(Figure 10) for selecting suitable genotype and optimum sowing time for Islamabad area.
The simulation analysis regarding partitioning of wheat yield using SOI phases showed that
sowing after mid November was vulnerable to climatic fluctuations governed by SOI phase
in July. It was mainly due to probability of occurrence of rainfall at the growth stage of crop
establishment. It predicted that rainfall received in relation to crop phenological stage is
efficiently utilized compared to other sowing windows in SOI phase 3 (Figure 11). The
simulation studies clearly depicted that the yield increased to about 1 t/h with the SOI phase
3 during July as compared to phase 5 during the same month. The simulation results also
showed that prevalence of SOI phase 2 and 3 explains less yield depressions in all varieties
under study in rainfed areas compare to other patterns of SOI phases. This type of
knowledge may be used to decide for the sowing of wheat if information about these phases
is known prior to start of wheat sowing in the area.
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
1 2 3 4 5SOI Phases
Yield (t/ha)
W C N5 N2 N4 M
Figure 9. Simulated wheat yield of various genotypes over years (1961-2008) for Islamabad
partitioned against July SOI phases.
170 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
Figure 10. Simulated Yield of Chakwal – 97 (1961-2008) over sowing time partitioned
against the prevailing SOI phase in July.
Figure 11. Wheat Growth Stages, Degree Days and Rainfall (avg. 1961-08)
Pakistan 171
In these studies, there has been considerable progress made in the field of using seasonal
climate forecasting and the use of this skill in selecting optimum sowing time and suitable
cultivar coupled with crop simulation models.
5.4.3 Existing Weather Forecasting System
The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) is responsible to provide meteorological
expertise and professional services to the development of agricultural sector in the country
through its weather forecasting mechanism. The department is in charge to deliver quality
forecast, warning and advisory services.
PMD is both a scientific and a service department, responsible for providing meteorological
service throughout Pakistan. Apart from Meteorology, the department is also concerned with
Agro-meteorology.
The department has established:
A network of observing stations to generate meteorological and geophysical data.
A telecommunication system for speedy dissemination of data
Meteorological offices to analyze data for issuing forecasts and warnings for
agriculture, and irrigation etc.
Climatological and data processing units for scrutinizing, comparing and publishing
data for appraisal of long term weather trends and earthquakes.
Research & Development (R&D) Division to carry out research activities regarding
analysis of extreme events observed in the past and their future trend, climate
change, weather modification, land-ocean-atmosphere interaction, seasonal weather
prediction and etc.
PMD at the time of its establishment in 1947 inherited only 15 Meteorological Observatories
(MO) from the Central Meteorological Organization (CMO) then operating in the Subcontinent.
With continuous efforts, PMD has improved its weather forecasting capabilities in the country.
Improvements in the forecasting capabilities were achieved by expanding the network of
meteorological observatories (Figure 12 and Table 4), developing methods of observation,
improving telecommunication facilities and forecasting techniques. PMD extends its
meteorological services through dissemination of relevant information not only through its
various publications / reports and regional offices but also through print and electronic media.
172 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
Figure 12: Network of Met Observing Stations in Pakistan
(Source: Pakistan Meteorological Department)
Pakistan 173
Table 4. PMD Observatories at District / Tehsil / Agencies Level
Punjab NWFP Sindh Balochistan Azad
Kashmir
Northern
Areas
Chhor
(PBO)
Panjgur
(PBO)
Skardu
(PBO)
Bahawal Nagar Balakot Hyderabad
(PBO)
Pasni
(PBO)
Garidopatta Skardu
(A/P)
Bahawal Pur Cherat Jacobabad
(PBO)
Gwader
(PBO)
Kotli Bunji
Bahawal Pur
(A/P)
Chitral S K.A.P.
(MO)
Lasbella
(MO)
Rawlakot Gilgit
(PBO)
Faisalabad D.I.Khan
(PBO)
Nawabshah
(PBO)
Turbat
(AM)
Muzaffarabad
(PBO)
Astore
Jhelum D.I.Khan
(Aeromet)
Badin
(PBO)
Ormara
(AM)
Muzaffarabad
(Aeromet)
Chilas
Khanpur Dir Larkana
(PBO)
Jiwani
(PBO)
Gupis
Lahore (A/P). Drosh Padidan
(MO)
Babusar
Lahore (PBO). Kakul Rohri
(MO)
Multan Parachinar
(PBO)
Moen-jo-
daro (AM)
Mandibahauddin Parachinar
(Aeromet)
Sukkur
(AM)
Sialkot Saidu
Sharif
(Aeromet
Obsy)
Karachi,
Marine
Met.
Keemari.
D.G. Khan Saidu
Sharif
(MO)
Mithi (MO)
D.G. Khan
(Aeromet)
Kalam Tandojam
(AM)
Jhang Malam
Jabba
Mangla Mir Khani
Rahim Yar
Khan
Bannu
In addition to this, nine observatories also exist in Balochistan which are under the control of
Geophysical Centre, Quetta. These observatories are; Pilot Baloon Observatory (at
174 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
Shekhmanda, Quetta; Kalat; Khuzdar; Zhob; Barkhan, Dalbandin; and Nokhundi), Regional
Agro-Met Centre at Quetta, and Meteorological Observatory at Sibbi.
Legends:
P.B.O = Pilot Baloon Observatory
A.M. = Aeromet Observatory
M.O. = Meteorological Observatory)
Pakistan is basically an agricultural country. In order to boost up agricultural productivity,
there are still a number of areas in the agromet field where research activities are needed to
be undertaken. For example;
� Studying and quantifying the impact of Climate Change on:
o agriculture/crop production in Pakistan
o water resources in Pakistan
� Drought monitoring and the development of early warning and prediction models.
� To enhance the resilience in various cropping systems of the country based on
climate considerations, climate forecasts through better and improved Decision
Support System (DSS) regarding:
o the crops sowing dates in different areas
o the selection of suitable genotype o the selection of suitable crop type.
Obviously, there are challenges that we face and will encounter more as were move forward.
In order to meet the present and future challenges, PMD placed a team of scientists under the
umbrella of R&D Division to work mainly with the objective to provide expertise and
advisory services to the planners and policy-makers in addressing emerging problems
relating to Climate Change agriculture, assessment of available water resources and their
effective/optimum utilization, flood control and environmental hazards.
The Research and Development division of PMD is carrying out various modeling activities
for attaining a purposeful forecast. The major activities include:
5.4.3.1 Numerical modeling
Numerical modeling is the process of obtaining an objective forecast of the future state of
the atmosphere by solving a set of equations that describe the evolution of variables
(temperature, wind speed, humidity, pressure) that define the state of the atmosphere.
5.4.3.2 Regional Climate Model
PMD is using the PRECIS regional climate modeling system developed by Hadley Centre of
Meteorological Service, United Kingdom and RegCM3 (Regional Climate Model version 3)
of ICTP, Trieste, Italy, for developing climate scenarios, climate predictions, land use / land
cover climate impact and for climate and climate change related research.
Pakistan 175
5.4.3.3 Numerical Weather Forecasting Systems
Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) is using Mesoscale Model version5 (MM5) for
numerical weather forecasting and is also preparing to use the High Resolution Model
(HRM) with a grid length of 7km in near future. The HRM is developed by DWD (National
Meteorological Service of Germany). The models have been installed at Research &
Development Division of PMD.
5.4.4 Existing Agromet Advisory Systems
5.4.4.1 Agromet Centres in Pakistan
Pakistan, being an Agricultural country, requires sufficient and accurate agromet data. Keeping
in view this responsibility, a National Agromet Centre at Islamabad and four Regional Agromet
Centres at Quetta, Tandojam, Faisalabad and Rawalpindi were set up. These are fully functional
now.
Apart from these Centres, a forecasting office for agriculturists has also been established at
Islamabad. This Centre named, National Agromet Centre (NAMC) issues necessary forecasts
for the benefit of farmers and other related agencies. Main objective/functions of National and
Regional Agromet Centres are described as under
5.4.4.1.1 National Agromet Centre (NAMC), Islamabad.
The main responsibilities of the centre are :
� To develop coordination and liaison with national authorities of agriculture and water sector
� To regularly publish “Monthly Agromet Bulletin of Pakistan” for farming community.
o This bulletin is published by the 5th day of each month and has two portions;
one is in English language and the other is in Urdu language.
o More than 70 recipients are receiving this bulletin throughout the country from
various disciplines of agriculture.
� To compile research work on crop-weather relationship on regional basis for its
publication as well as dissemination to agriculture authorities.
� To establish agrometeorological data base for different agroclimatic zones of Pakistan.
NAMC shares the research responsibilities on national level. Progressive work on water
requirement of major and minor crops, crop and animal diseases and analysis for climatic soil
moisture stress conditions is an integral part of research at this centre. Agromet computer data
processing for different agromet activities is an additional duty of this centre.
5.4.4.1.2 Regional Agromet Centres
The regional centres are located in four districts namely; Rawalpindi, Faislabad, Quetta and
Tandojam. These centres are responsible for:
� Preparation of crop reports in relation to prevailing weather conditions on regional level
176 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
is the main responsibility of RAMCs. On the basis of these reports for several years,
agrometeorological crop modeling work is in progress for major crops of different
regions.
� RAMCs perform research in collaboration with agricultural scientists of the region on
common and important issues. They actively participate infield research and provide
processed data, as and when required in research investigations.
� Transmit regional information on crops and animals to national focal point NAMC,
Islamabad. Prepare and disseminate agromet advisory for farmers of the region in
consultation with local agriculture authorities.
� Technically assist in establishing new agromet observing station when required. Perform
calibration and maintenance of agromet instruments installed. RAMCs are responsible to trim
technical main power of local agricultural related personnel and involved in agromet work.
5.4.5 Existing Agromet Advisory Dissemination Mechanism
Agromet service is in operation since 1988 with a National Agromet Centre, (NAMC) at
Islamabad and Regional Agromet Centres (RAMCs).
The PMD provides the information in the form of current, 10-day and monthly Agromet
Bulletins, Pakistan Weather Outlook etc. from NAMC.
5.4.5.1 National Weather for Next 24 Hours
In the form of a ‘weather outlook’ this forecast contains information regarding expected
weather conditions and temperatures in following 25 districts / tehsils of Pakistan.
Table 5. Regions for which 24 hours forecast issued
PUNJAB SINDH NWFP Balochistan
Bahawalnagar Hyderabad Abbotabad Gawadar
Bahawalpur Jacobabad Bannu Khuzdar
D. G. Khan Karachi D. I. Khan Quetta
Faisalabad Larkana Gilgit Sibbi
Gujranwala Nawabshah Kalat Zhob
Islamabad Kohat Ziarat
Jiwani Mardan
Jhelum Peshawar
Lahore Parachinar
Mandi-Bahaudin Skardu
Mianwali Turbat
Multan
Murree
Rawalpindi
Sargodha
Sialkot
Pakistan 177
The weather forecast for next 24 hours contains information like
WEATHER IN LAST 24 HRS:
Weather remained dry in most parts of the country.
OUTLOOK FOR NEXT 24 HRS:
Dry weather expected in most parts of the country.
SYNOPTIC SITUATION/OUTLOOK:
Continental air is likely to prevail in most parts of the country during next few days.
PUNJAB INCLUDING ISLAMABAD:
Dry weather is expected in most parts of the province during next few days. Whereas day
temperatures likely to remain above normal in plain areas of the Punjab during next few
days.
NWFP:
Dry weather is expected in most parts of the province during next few days.
SINDH:
Dry weather expected in most parts of the province during next few days. Whereas day
temperatures likely to remain above normal in most parts of Sindh during next few days.
BALOCHISTAN:
Dry weather expected in most parts of the province during next few days. Whereas day
temperatures likely to remain above normal in coastal and central parts during next few days.
KASHMIR & GILGIT-BALTISTAN:
Dry weather is expected in the above mentioned area during next few days.
5.4.5.2 Four Days Forecast
PMD issues a four days forecast regarding precipitation for 50 major districts / tehsils /
regions of the country just showing the expected weather as below:.
Thunderstorm-Rain
Partly Cloudy
Sunny
178 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
5.4.5.3 Weekly Forecast
A weekly forecast is prepared for 17 districts / tehsils / regions of Punjab, 10 of NWFP, 13
of Balochistan, 13 Sindh, and 3 of Northern Areas and Azad Kashmir each. The information
presented in this forecast is regarding precipitation, temperature, dew point, humidity etc.
The list of the region / areas covered in this forecast is given in table 6.
Table 6. Regions covered under weekly forecast
PUNJAB SINDH NWFP Balochistan
Bahawalnagar Hyderabad Abbotabad Gawadar
Bahawalpur Jacobabad Bannu Khuzdar
D. G. Khan Karachi D. I. Khan Quetta
Faisalabad Larkana Kohat Sibi
Gujranwala Nawabshah Peshawar Zhob
Islamabad Mohenjodaro Chitral Ziarat
Okara Sukkar Saidusharif Kalat
Jhelum Thatta Miranshah Ormara
Lahore Badin Wana Dalbandin
Rahim Yar Khan Mithi Balakot Nokkundi
Mianwali Port Qasim Panjgur
Multan Keti Bandar Pasni
Murree Hawksbay Jiwani
Sargodha
Khanpur
Khanewal
Vehari
5.4.5.4 Agro-meteorological Advisory Bulletin
Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) issues a 10 days Agromet Bulletin which
contains information as presented in table 7 below and appendix 1:
Table 7. Agro-meteorological Advisory Bulletin
Information about: Description
Past weather Know about any weather induced crop damages
Forecast Keep your self updated about coming weather to schedule
on-farm activities
Crop reports Get insight to performance of standing crops
Crop water requirements Know about water requirement of your crop
Soil Moisture Know any potential risk of moisture stress to crop
Pakistan 179
5.4.5.5 Monthly Agro-Met Bulletin
Agromet Bulletin is prepared on the basis of data from 18 stations representing major
agricultural areas of Pakistan selected in consultation with Agriculture authorities. This bulletin
is updated during first week of each month, having information about temperature, solar
radiations and moisture conditions which can be used by researchers of various disciplines. It
also contains valuable additional information such as monthly evapotranspiration, crop report /
conditions and expected weather conditions during the next month.
The information generated from following PMD stations are included in this bulletin:
Peshawar, D.I.Khan, Kamra, Rawalpindi, Jhelum, Sargodha, Lahore, Faisalabad, Multan,
Khanpur, Quetta, Rohri and Tandojam.
5.4.5.6 System of Dissemination of Agromet Data
In Pakistan, until early 1960’s, agricultural information was disseminated mainly through
extension workers by holding meetings, field days, demonstrations and melas (fairs).
In Pakistan, radio has played a significant role in bringing awareness and technological changes
particularly in rural population through its various special programmes. These programmes
were introduced in Radio Pakistan in December 1966 from its Peshawar, Lahore and
Hyderabad stations daily for 30 minutes duration in the evening. These various programmes
under different titles were warmly welcomed by the rural community. Later on these
programmes were also started from the remaining stations. Now almost all stations of Radio
Pakistan transmit agricultural programmes from 15 o 60 minutes duration daily in one or two
segments in consultation and active collaboration with the provincial agricultural departments.
These programmes and events were useful but lack in providing the information to the farming
community to enable them to cope with the climate variability.
In the current century, with the changing agricultural practices and increased awareness
regarding role of climate in agriculture, the information generated by PMD are released and
disseminated to the farming community in the form of ‘Farmers Bulletins’ which are provided
to all the regional broadcasting stations and newspapers. The information to the press /
information Medias are also provided through telephone / fax. National forecast is also
presented through electronic media.
5.4.6 Conclusion
In Pakistan, general but non-specific climate information for the agricultural sector is available
for producers from a range of sources. Information providers and users are often either ignorant
of the possible consequences of a certain climatic outcome or unable to quantify its effect.
While general information is somewhat useful and of interest, it usually stops short of providing
the level of details needed in order to affect management decisions. To improve climate risk
related decision making at the farm level, farmers need to gain a better understanding of the
climate factors that affect crop yield in their environment. This will allow decision makers to
identify possible management options based on climate information or seasonal climate
forecasts.
180 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
Use of seasonal climate forecasting can help to enhance the resilience in various cropping
systems. However, to further improve financial profitability, economic efficiency and resource
risk management, well-targeted case studies should address the following objectives:
• Quantify relationships between SOI phases (using the phenomena of El Nino Southern
Oscillation, ENSO) and rainfall, crop yields and income;
• Identify promising management strategies in existing cropping systems via simulation
analysis using seasonal climate forecasts and climate variability information;
• Quantify the impact of using climate knowledge in economic and social terms;
• Provide a methodology for objective evaluation of policy consequences.
For successful climate applications, there is a need for effective collaboration and
communication. It requires to engage in participatory, cross-disciplinary research that brings
together institutions (partnerships), disciplines (eg. climate science, agricultural systems science,
sociology and many other disciplines), people (scientists, policy makers, farmers and
agribusiness representatives) and institutions as equal partners to gain maximum benefit from
agricultural systems and climate research. Most importantly, the concept that has proven
valuable to reduce vulnerability in agricultural systems is applicable for other crops exposed to
climate induced risks.
5.4.7 References
Aggarwal, P. K. and N. Kalra. 1994. Analyzing the limitations set by climatic factors, genotype,
water and nitrogen availability on productivity of wheat II. Climatically potential yields
and management strategies. Field Crops Res. 38: 93-103.
Anda, L. and R. Antons. 2004. Variety and environment effects on quality traits in Latvian -
grown winter wheat. In: New directions for a diverse planet: Proceedings for the 4th
International Crop Science Congress, (Eds. Fischer et al.) Brisbane, Australia, 26
September - 1 October, 2004.
Anonymous. 2009. Economic Survey of Pakistan. Planning Commission of Pakistan. Ministry of
Finance. Government of Pakistan.
Aslam, M., A. Majid, P. R. Hobbs, N. I. Hashmi and D. Byerlee. 1989. Wheat in Rice – Wheat
cropping system of the Punjab: a synthesis of on – farm research results 1984 – 1988.
PARC/CIMMYT Paper No. 89 – 3. Islamabad, Pakistan Agricultural Research Council.
Curtis, B. C. 2002. Wheat in the world. In: Bread Wheat Improvement and Production (Eds. B.
C. Curtis, S. Rajaram and H. Gómez Macpherson). Food and Agriculture Organization
of the United Nations. Rome, Italy. Pp. 1 – 17.
Grausgruber, H., Oberforster, M., Werteker, M., Ruckenbauer, P. and Vollmann, J. 2000.
Stability of quality traits in Austrian - grown winter wheats. Field Crops Res., 66: 257-
267.
Hunt, L. A., S. Pararajasingham and J. V. Wiersma. 1996. Effects of planting date on the
development and yield of spring wheat: simulation of field data. Can. J. Plant Sci., 76:
51-58.
Pakistan 181
Khan, M, A. 2003. Wheat Crop Management for Yield Maximization. Wheat research Institute,
Faisalabad, Pakistan. pp. 1-94.
McCown, R. L., G. L. Hammer, J. N. G. Hargreaves, D. P. Holzworth, and D. M. Freebairn.
1996. APSIM: a novel software system for model development, model testing and
simulation in agricultural systems research. Agricultural Systems 50: 255 – 271.
Meinke, H., G. L. Hammer, H. Van Keulen, R. Rabbinge and B. A. Keating. 1997. Improving
wheat simulation capabilities in Australia from a cropping systems perspective: water
and nitrogen effect on spring wheat in a semi – arid environment. Eur. J. Agron., 7: 75 –
88.
Meinke, H., W. E. Baethgen, P. S. Carberry, M. Donatelli, G. L. Hammer, R. Selvaraju and C. O.
Stöckle. 2001. Increasing profits and reducing risks in crop production using
participatory systems simulation approaches. Agricultural Systems. 70: 493 - 513.
182 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
Appendix 1
Agrometeorological
Advisory Bulletin (March 10-20, 2010)
This bulletin contains analysis of:
Past Weather: Know about any weather induced crop damages
Forecast: Keep yourself updated about coming weather to schedule
on- farm activities.
Find predictions for wintering / hygrothermal stress
conditions & possible damages to crops.
Crop reports: Get insight to performance of standing crops and know
about suitable actions for better crops.
Crop Water Know how much water is needed for optimum yield of
your crop. Requirement:
Soil Moisture: Know is there any risk of water stress to crops.
Pakistan Meteorological Department National Agromet Centre, Islamabad-Pakistan
Ph: 051-9250299 Fax: 051-9250362 URL: http://www.pakmet.com.pk Email: [email protected]
PMD 10 days Agromet Bulletin based on actual observations and field reports
Dr. B V R Punyawardena
Research Officer
Natural Resource Management Centre
Department of Agriculture
Peradeniya, Sri Lanka
5.5 SRI-LANKA
184 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
Sri-Lanka 185
5.5.1 Climate of Sri Lanka
Being located in low latitudes between 6° and 10° N and surrounded by the Indian Ocean,
Sri Lanka shows very typical maritime-tropical temperature conditions. Moreover, there is a
marked variation in climate of the island due to the central highland region being surrounded
by an extensive lowland area. Out of major climatic parameters, temperature, rainfall,
humidity and evaporation are of special significance which can cause substantial impact on
the agricultural productivity of the country. However, being a tropical country solar radiation
hardly limits the crop growth under general weather conditions.
5.5.2 Temperature
The regional differences in temperature are due to altitude; there is no temperature variation
due to latitude. The mean monthly temperatures differ slightly depending on the seasonal
movement of the sun, with some modifying influence caused by rainfall. In the lowlands, the
mean annual temperature is 27ºC and the mean daily range is 6ºC. In the central highland
with altitudes up to 2,400m a cooler climate is experienced. At Nuwara Eliya, altitude
1800m, the mean annual temperature is 15ºC and the mean daily range is 10ºC. However,
during the period of January to March the diurnal variation around Nuwara Eliya is large and
ground frost is observed on about four days early in the mornings or nights when the
temperature near the ground falls below freezing point. During the period May to
September, if the westerly winds are strong, the leeward area east of the central highland,
and the relatively flat terrain extending to the east coast experience a warm dry wind. Such
local winds are known as the Kachchan or Yal-hulang. The mean daily range of temperature
could then reach 9ºC with a mean daily maximum temperature of 34ºC. The coldest month
with respect to mean monthly temperature is January and the warmest months are April and
early May
5.5.3 Rainfall
Rainfall of Sri Lanka is of multiple origins. Monsoonal, convectional and weather systems
formed in the Bay of Bengal account for major share of the annual rainfall. It varies from
900 mm (southeastern lowland) to over 5,400 mm (southwestern slopes of the central
highland). The four rainfall seasons that have been recognized in the rainfall calendar of Sri
Lanka are based on the monsoons. These are the First Inter Monsoon (FIM), South West
Monsoon (SWM), Second Inter Monsoon (SIM) and North East Monsoon (NEM). The
rainfall distribution during the FIM period of March-April shows that that the entire
southwestern sector and hill country receives 0vver 250 mm of rainfall with a localized area
in the southwestern slopes experiencing rainfall in excess of 700 mm. Rainfall during SWM
period of May to September varies from about 100 to over 3,000 mm. The highest rainfall is
received in the mid elevations of the western slopes. The SIM period of October to
November is the most evenly balanced distribution of rainfall over Sri Lanka. Almost the
entire island receives in excess of 400 of rain during this season, with southwestern slopes
receiving higher rainfall in the range of 750 to 1,200 mm. During the NEM period in
186 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
December to February of the following year, the highest rainfall figures are recorded in the
northeastern slopes of the central hills with over 1,200 mm. Being chiefly convective in
nature, rains during two intermonsoon periods usually associates with thunder and lightning
along with short-duration high intensity rains especially during the FIM period. Out of these
four rainfall seasons, two consecutive rainy seasons make up the major growing seasons of
Sri Lanka, namely Yala and Maha seasons. Generally Yala season is the combination of FIM
and SWM rains. Since SWM rains are effective only over the country’s southwestern sector,
the length of this season in the rest of the country confines only to two months. Being
effective only for two months in most parts of the island, the Yala season is considered as the
minor growing season of the country. The major growing season of the island, Maha season
begins with the arrival of SIM rains October and continues up to late January/February with
the MEM rains.
5.5.4 Relative Humidity
Relative humidity generally ranges from 70 to 90 per cent during morning and 55 to 80 per
cent during late afternoon depending on the geographical location. Very low humidity
values (from 55 to 60 per cent) are reported in dry lowlands during June to August where the
föhn like wind (Kachchan wind) is often very marked. Comparatively high humid condition
that prevails during winter months (December to January) is one of the predisposing factors
for plant disease outbreaks during the Maha season.
5.5.5 Evaporation
During the Yala season often pan evaporation is likely to range between 3 to 8 mm per day
depending on geographical region. Higher values over 8 mm per day are often experienced
in dry lowland areas during this period. Meanwhile, a range of 2 to 5 mm per day is
generally observed during the Maha season across different localities of the island.
5.5.6 Climatic zones of Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka has traditionally been generalized in to three climatic zones in terms of “Wet
Zone” in the southwestern region including central hill country, and “Dry Zone” covering
predominantly, northern and eastern part of the country, being separated by an “Intermediate
zone,” skirting the central hills except in the south and the west (Map 1). In differentiating
aforesaid three climatic zones, rainfall, contribution of southwest monsoon rains, soils, land
use and vegetation have been widely used. The Wet zone receives relatively high mean
annual rainfall over 2,500 mm without pronounced dry periods. The Dry zone receives a
mean annual rainfall of less than 1,750 mm with a distinct dry season from May to
September. The Intermediate zone receives a mean annual rainfall between 1,750 to 2,500
mm with a short and less prominent dry season.
Sri-Lanka 187
5.5.7 Climate parameters and crop growth
The relationship between weather parameters and crop growth and yield has been adequately
documented over the decades in national, regional and international literature archives and
hence, needs no further elaboration. Therefore, for the special needs of this document, only
as to how the climate variability and change would affect agricultural production in Sri
Lanka will be discussed.
Weather is the major uncontrollable factor that influences the growth and development of
crops. It has become a common grievance that expected yields are hardly achieved despite
adapting advance technology and optimum amount of inputs. This is of a concern as we have
been seeing greater deviation from yield trends during last several years than were
experienced during the 1970s and the early 1980s.
188 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
Due to the continuous advancement of the technology after 1970s, potential yield of almost
every crop appears to have increased in a linear manner even though yield trends show
diminished rates of increase and high variability. If weather were ideal each season, crop
yield trends would likely to show a linear increase during the years from 1970s through
2000. It is probable that the cause of the leveling of yield trends, though not uniform within
the country and even within an agro-ecological region, is caused by increasingly uncertain
weather conditions. There can be many reasons for this leveling of the yield trend, most of
them are directly or indirectly related to the climate change such as increased variability of
rainfall, increased ambient temperature, changes in the severity and number of pests and
diseases and perhaps many other factors. For example, the assumption that we made at the
very beginning is that sunlight is sufficient for the growth of crops may not always be true
under a changing climate. High variability of monsoon may bring some years with which
will have a month where light is not sufficient for optimal crop growth and grain filling.
5.5.8 Major issues of climate change with respect to agricultural
productivity in Sri Lanka
Being a country whose economy is highly dependent on agriculture is very sensitive to the
weather aberrations. Thus, there is no doubt that climate change/variability would inflict
additional strain on the agricultural productivity of Sri Lanka due to reduction of crop yields
both quantitatively and qualitatively. Recent estimated statistics indicate that the climate
change will affect the agricultural production in Sri Lanka, and is expected to decrease
agricultural production by 16 per cent in 2020. If accurate and timely agro-met advisory
products are available, the magnitude of this impact could be reduced considerably.
Following is a list of possible impacts on the agriculture sector of Sri Lanka that would arise
in future due to the climate change:
A). Reduction of crops yield due to increased variability of rainfall
• Soil moisture stress on rainfed upland crops
• Less availability of irrigation water at crucial times
• Flood damages to crops grown in flood plains
• Excess soil moisture for upland crops during certain times of the growing season
• Increased post-harvest losses due to abnormal rainy weather conditions during
harvesting period of crops
• Increased rate of soil erosion and subsequent sedimentation of downstream
reservoirs
• Increased pest and disease infestation
B). Reduction of crop yields due to increasing ambient temperature
• Reduction of food reserves in crops due to reduced photosynthesis and increased
respiration rates
• Desiccation of pollens
• Spikelet sterility in grain crops, especially in rice
• Reduced bulking of tuber crops, especially in potato
• Increased soil moisture stress due to high evapotranspiration rates
Sri-Lanka 189
• Reduced availability of irrigation water due to rapid drying up of irrigation tanks,
especially the minor tanks
• Increased pest damages
• Reduced soil fertility
a. Land degradation due to salinization
b. Rapid decomposition of organic matter c. Less microbial activity
C). Possible impacts due to sea level rise
• Contamination of both surface and ground water irrigation sources by brackish water
• Salinity and Sodicity in coastal agricultural lands
• Encroachment of agricultural lands for other land uses
5.5.9 Importance of seasonal weather prediction to Sri Lanka
Being a country whose economy has been based on agriculture since ancient times, it is
recognized that weather plays a dominant role in country’s prosperity. As a result, farming
systems and agronomic practices in almost all agro-ecological regions of the country have
evolved in close harmony with the climatic regime of respective regions. However, it has
been evident in recent years that heritage of farming experiences and accumulated weather
lore of centuries are no longer useful in the process agricultural planning at any level due to
climate change. Because, climate of the island has undergone a change to such an extent that
correct amount of rainfall does not come at the correct time of the growing season where as
more rains would come when it is not needed. Meanwhile, ambient temperature also shows a
rising trend with web of negative impacts on the agricultural productivity. Therefore, it has
become a timely need to produce reliable seasonal weather forecasting than ever before so
that appropriate changes to farming practices could be undertaken to minimize the impacts
of possible weather aberrations under a changing climate.
The recent foresight activities on seasonal weather forecasting have emphasized the need of
the agricultural sector and to be even more responsive to the needs of farmers and agri-
business people. Thus, there should be a better match between publicly-funded strategic
research on seasonal weather forecasting and the needs of the stakeholders, in particular, the
agricultural sector. It is also recognized that benefits and efficiencies could be gained if
forecasts, especially seasonal forecasts, were available on time and reliable. Deviation from
the norm is considered the most important, especially relating to extreme conditions and the
likely duration of such events. In view of the regional and global nature of the modern food
chain, there is interest in forecasts on a regional and global basis, especially where weather
conditions are likely to affect the availability and quality of raw materials and ingredients.
The ability of Department of Meteorology, Sri Lanka to forecast weather on a seasonal basis
is improving and there is a growing recognition by the agricultural sector for such an
achievement. It will enable the farmers and policy makers to minimize the risk of farming
through:
• Choice of growing location;
• Choice of cultivar/s with respect to potential growing conditions and potential pest
and disease;
190 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
• Determination of sowing and planting times;
• Planning and control of stocks and distribution of seed, fertilizers and agro-
chemicals;
• Irrigation planning;
• Potential demand for application of pesticides (insecticides, fungicides, herbicides,
etc.) and fertilizers;
• Protection against extreme weather conditions, e.g. flood, drought, frost;
• Arrangements of contract growing;
• Potential harvesting conditions;
• Prediction of quality and quantity of crop (Yield forecasting);
• Production and manufacturing in agri-based industries;
• Prediction of timing, quality and quantity of raw materials;
• Optimize the marketing opportunities to meet consumer demand higher prices for
farmers;
• Potential volume and quality of raw materials from competitor imports from other
countries.
5.5.10 Present Situation of Long Range Weather Forecasting (LRF) in
Sri Lanka
For agricultural purposes it is important to have both short range and long range weather
forecasts, especially the rainfall. However, being a tropical country it is easier said than done
to issue accurate short range weather forecast due to unexpected development of meso-scale
weather phenomenon in the tropical region, especially during the intermonsoon periods
At present, Long Range weather Forecast (LRF) is not issued by the Department of
Meteorology (DoM) due to lack of resources and expertise in this field of meteorology.
Thus, DoM has compelled to use climatological averages (1961-1990 Average) as a tool for
LRF. However, this information will provide only upon the request of clients. Probability of
having such climatological events will also be given along with such forecast using the
present synoptic situation and the possible future changes of the atmosphere.
But the climatological averages do not give a clear indication on the very below average and
very above average (extremes) situations of the climate. As a result, climatological averages
tend to mislead the users including farmers during the extreme weather conditions.
Meanwhile, it has been observed that extreme weather conditions such as heavy rainfall and
drought conditions are in a rising trend during recent past probably due to the climate
change. Therefore, development of accurate LRF tools is of paramount importance to reduce
the vulnerability of agricultural sector to the weather aberrations induced by the climate
change.
To fulfill this requirement, DoM developed a statistical model to issue seasonal rainfall
forecasting to cater the country’s agricultural sector. However, it was observed that skill of
the model in predicting the extreme rainfall events was very poor. Subsequently, scientists
have tried statistical downscaling of GCMs as a seasonal rainfall forecasting tool, but to end
up with the same results. This was mainly attributed to the fact that relative size of the island
compared to the scale of available GCMs. Hence, it has become very clear that dynamic
Sri-Lanka 191
downscaling of GCMs models and Numerical Weather Predictions (use of current weather
conditions as input in to mathematical models) is the only available options to issue reliable
seasonal weather forecasting. However, as mentioned before lack of resources and expertise
on this field have severely hampered the further development of this discipline in the field of
meteorology and climatology in Sri Lanka. Nevertheless, acquiring of a new Dropler
Weather Radar System, installation 38 AWS and 20 Telemeter rain-gauges by the
Department of Meteorology will definitely enhance the quality and accuracy of weather
forecasts of Sri Lanka in future and to produce valuable agro-met advisory products.
5.5.11 Current state of agro- met advisory service in Sri Lanka
At present, even though agro-meteorological information are being collected by both
departments of agriculture and meteorology, there is hardly any collective effort to
synthesize these information and compile agro-met advisory products or documents which
are of any use to farmers and agri-business people. Whatever information that is being
collected is used by researchers and policy makers for long-term planning and decision
making. It has also been observed that there is only minimal interaction exists among
agricultural and meteorological officials and farmers and agri-business people. As a result
meteorological officials have only limited concern on agriculture when they issue short or
medium range forecasts. This has led to farmers and peasants have no experience in relying
on weather information which in turn results in no demand for agro-meteorological products
or documents to be produced by the met service.
5.5.12 Proposed networking of Department of Meteorology and
Department of Agriculture
Even though an agro-met advisory service does not exist in Sri Lanka at present, its
importance has been surfaced in various platforms during recent times in dealing with the
challenge of climate change on agricultural productivity. Therefore, it has become a
fundamental requirement to make aware the farmers and the agri-business people on the
importance of real time agro-advisory products and to enlighten the met officials on the
requirements of agricultural sector with respect to weather forecasting. At this place,
agricultural officials have a vital role to play to link these two groups by respecting needs
and constrains of both parties.
Therefore, it is proposed to take following steps by respective authorities in order to increase
the demand for agro-met advisory products by agricultural stakeholders to reduce the risk
that may arise due to the climate change
• Establishment of an Agro-met Forecasting Cell at the Department of Agriculture
(DoA) with a team of Scientists and Extension Agronomists
• Linking this cell directly to the National Meteorological Center (NMC) of the
Department of Meteorology (DoM)
• Immediate transferring of short and medium range weather forecasts issued by the
NMC directly to the Agro-met Forecasting Cell
• Preparation of Value-added Agro-Advisory Reports by the Agro-met Forecasting
Cell
192 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
• Dissemination of these information immediately to the, Farm-broadcasting service,
On-line agricultural extension service, Cyber Extension Service of the DoA, all
printed and electronic media
In long-run, following activities should be undertaken
• Carry-out awareness programme to educate farmers and other stakeholders on the
importance of Agro-advisory reports and build their confidence on such information
• Develop a mechanism to get the feedback of end-users to improve the agro-advisory
reports
• Preparation of area specific detailed value-added agro-advisory reports on request
through on-line for agri-business people after paying a small fee
All these will help farmers and agri-business people and policy makers to utilize the real
time weather information for improved decision making and management of agricultural
systems for enhanced and sustainable productivity through minimizing the risk of weather
aberrations.
5.5.13 Information that should give along with value-added agro-advisory
reports
• Possible onset of seasonal rains
� Is it quite early or considerably late ?
• Any prolong dry spells during the season
� How long they will be ?
• Spatial variability of seasonal rains
� At least for major agro-climatic zones
• Possible withdrawal of seasonal rains
� Is it quite early or considerably delayed ?
• Possible extreme weather conditions
� Frost occurrences in Up Country Wet Zone
� Daytime maximum temperatures exceeding some threshold levels � Above 33
0C in Dry and Intermediate zones during July
• Appropriate crops/varieties for the season specifying for different agro-ecological
regions
• Appropriate agronomic and water management practices
• Suitable soil and water conservation techniques
� Eg. Should mulching be in placed ?
• Increase or decrease in area planted
� Upland and lowland
• Advices on timing of land preparation
• Possible pest and disease outbreaks
• Optimal period for harvesting
• Placing orders and Stocking of inputs
• Advices on borrowing loans
• Advices on crop insurance
• Advices on marketing of farm products
6. Proceedings
Consultation meeting on
"Operational Agrometeorological Services in
SAARC and other countries in RA II region"
20-21 April 2012
at
National Meteorological
Training Institute,Pashan,
Pune
194 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
Proceedings of WMO and SAARC meeting 195
WMO, Non-SAARC Participants
Mr Robert Stefanski Chief,
Agricultural Meteorology Division
Climate and Water Department
World Meteorological Organization
7bis Avenue de la Paix
CH-1211 Geneva, Switzerland
Mr. Ngo TienGiang Deputy Director
Center for Agricultural Meteorology
(CAMET)
Vietnam Institute of Meteorology,
No 23-62 Alley, Nguyen Chi Thanh Road,
Dong Da District, Ha Noi, Viet Nam
Mrs. Erdenetsetseg 7-73, Khoroo 7, Sukhbaatar district,
Ulaanbaatar Mongolia
Mrs. ValeyevaDilya Chief of Agrometeorological Forecasts,
Department of Uzhydromet
196 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
SAARC Participants
Dr. A. K. Azad
Director, SAARC Agriculture Centre
BARC Complex, Farmgate, New Airport Road, Dhaka,
1215, Bangladesh
Dr. S. K. Pal
Deputy Director (Agriculture)
SAARC Agriculture Centre BARC Complex, Farmgate,
New Airport Road
Dhaka, 1215, Bangladesh [email protected]
Dr. M. N.Alam
Senior Program Specialist SAARC Agriculture Centre
BARC Complex, Farmgate, New Airport Road
Dhaka, 1215, Bangladesh
Dr. N. Chattopadhyay
Head, Agricultural Meteorology
Division, India Meteorological
Department,
Shivajinagar, Pune-411 005 India
Md. A. Mannan
Scientist, Synoptic Division
SAARC Meteorological
Research Centre(SMRC) Dhaka, Bangladesh
Dr. M. H. Mondal
Director General (Retd.),
Bangladesh Agricultural
Research Institute (BARI), Gazipur, Bangladesh
Mr. Abdul Ramiz
Director,
Maldives Meteorological
services. abdul_muhsin@meteorology
.gov.mv
Mr. J. P.Khanal
Director of Agriculture
Regional Directorate of
Agriculture Hariharbhawan, Lalitpur, Nepal
Dr.H. K. Kadupitiya
41-B-4, Hantana, Housing
Scheme, Kandy Sri Lanka
kadupitiya @gmail.com
Dr. Chimmi Wangda
Meteorology Division
Department of Hydromet
Services, Moea, Thimphu
Proceedings of WMO and SAARC meeting 197
India Meteorological Department has been working for the countries under the Regional
Association II regions on different aspects of agricultural meteorology through the different
programmes of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation(SAARC) and the
Commission of Agricultural Meteorology (CAgM) of World Meteorological Organization
(WMO) like agrometeorological services for agricultural production, strengthening of
operational agrometeorological services, application of agrometeorological products and
services for sustainable agricultural development, severe weather forecasting demonstration
project development for the Bay of Bengal region (RA II – South Asia) etc. Besides,
initiative has been taken recently between India Meteorological Department and World
Meteorological Organization on operational agrometeorology particularly in capacity
building and application of state of art technology in AAS in RA II region.
In this endeavour,Agricultural Meteorology Division, India Meteorological Department
(IMD), Pune, World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), Geneva and SAARC Agriculture
Centre (SAC), Bangladesh jointly organized the Consultation Meeting on Operational
Agrometeorological Services in SAARC and other countries in Regional Association (RA) II
region at National Meteorological Training Institute, Pune from 20-21 April 2012. A number
of high level dignitaries such as Dr. A. K. Azad, Director, SAC, Mr. Robert Stefanski, Chief,
Agricultural Meteorology Division, WMO, Prof. R. R. Kelkar, Former Director General of
Meteorology, IMD, AVM (Dr.) Ajit Tyagi, Former Director General of Meteorology, IMD
and Permanent Representative of WMO, Government of India, Dr. K. J. Ramesh, Scientist
G, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India, Shri S. Krishnaiah, Deputy Director
General of Meteorology (Surface Instruments), IMD, Pune, Shri B. Mukhopadhay, Deputy
Director General of Meteorology (HRD) & Scientist F,IMD,New Delhi,
Dr.N.Chattopadhyay, Head, Agricultural Meteorology Division, IMD, Pune, Dr. S. K. Pal,
Deputy Director (Agriculture), SAC, Dr. S. D. Attri, Deputy Director General of
Meteorology ( International) and Scientist E, IMD, New Delhi, Dr. S. Venkataraman,
Former. Director, IMD, Pune, Dr. S. Sardesai, Scientist G, National Informatics Centre
(NIC), Pune, Dr. H. P. Das, Former Deputy Director General of Meteorology (Agrimet),
IMD and number of Scientists / Officers from Meteorological Services of SAARC and Non
SAARC countries in RA II region have participated in the meeting. The objective of the
meeting was to share the ideas and understanding of agromet advisory services among the
agrometeorologists from SAARC and Non-SAARC countries in the RA-II which would
ultimately boost the agricultural activities and also benefit both the group of countries.
Extensive discussion was made to effectively integrate the skills of operational,
experimental, theoretical aspects of agricultural meteorology and their possible development
for the purpose of making the agriculture production system in the country in general more
robust.
Dr. N.Chattopadhyay heartily welcomed the dignitaries
and participants from different parts of the RA II region.
He complimented the SAC and WMO for their support
in organising the meeting as it is the need of the hour to
make a sensible programme in Agromet Advisory
Service in the countries in Asian region. He informed
the participants that the aim of the meeting was to
discuss different aspects of Agromet Advisory Services
198 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
(AAS), share ideas and understanding of AAS in SAARC and Non SAARC countries.Dr. N.
Chattopadhyay noted that IMD has achieved several milestonesin AAS with the active
support of the Ministry of Earth Sciences(MoES), Government of India and alsoin
collaboration with number of organisations under Public Private Partnership (PPP) mode. He
also informed that there would be three sessions followed by discussion on operational AAS
at different SAARC and Non SAARC countries and recommendations would be made which
may be applicable to the neighbouring countries.
Shri S.Krishnaiah mentioned that economy of most
of the countries of the world are dependent on
agriculture and development of agriculture has direct
bearing on the economy of the country. He said that
an exclusive Division for Agricultural Meteorology
was set up in IMD in 1932 in Pune with an objective
of minimising adverse weather impact and make
benefit of favourable weather. Shri S. Krishnaiah also
mentioned that Integrated Agromet Advisory
Services started in India in 2007 in collaboration with ICAR, Ministry of Agriculture and
different stake holders for implementing the services and also added that IMD is working
with RA II of WMO for sustainable development in agriculture. He added that initiation of
WMO in the development of operational Agrometeorology is highly beneficial for the
countries of RA II region and this has started a new era for operational agrometeorology. He
also added that the objective of the meeting would be sharing of ideas and educate each
other for benefit of other countries in RA II region and the meeting would be able to create a
new era of partnership in these the countries.
AVM (Dr.) Ajit Tyagi extended heartiest welcome to
all the delegates. He mentioned that with the success of
AAS, during next five year plan, AAS in India would
reach at block level. Dr.Tyagi also said that Pune is city
of learning and Agricultural Meteorology Division is
the true example for operationalization of District level
Agromet Advisory Service. He wished that during the
two days meeting the experiences to be gained in AAS
among the participating countries would be shared and
the recommendations and action plan of the meeting would be directly benefiting the
countries.
Prof. R.R.Kelkar briefly described the history of
Agricultural Meteorology in India. He said that as
most of the Asian countries are affected by drought,
floods, tropical cyclones etc. and there would be
much of impact of climate change in food security in
Asian countries,the RA II countries would have
tremendous responsibilities and important role from
the view point of food security. He has also discussed
about the status of food production in India in last two
years in relation to the spatial and temporal
Proceedings of WMO and SAARC meeting 199
distribution of monsoon rainfall. Prof. Kelkar stressed for the need of proper education of
farmers under the changing weather scenario. He said that he is very hopeful that two
different bodies i.e. RA II and SASCOF (South Asian Climate Change Outlook Forum)
would come together and come out with some good strategy for increased production.
Mr.R.Stefanski said that weather forecasting is
important aspect of Agricultural Meteorology
specifically in AAS. He said that IMD and the AASs
are providing a valuable service to farmers. He added
that weather and farming are related and operational
agrometeorology has much scope to explore the
relation for higher crop productivity. Mr. R. Stefanski
said that IMD’s medium range weather forecasting
and AAS of 5-7 days help the farmers to take
decisions on day-to-day agricultural operations and
that this is an excellent example of operational agromet. He also informed that dissemination
on climate forecast for a season and their application in agriculture would be explored jointly
by IMD and WMO. He stated that member countries of RA II would benefiting the most
out of the meeting and would be able to start issuing sensible Agromet Advisory Services in
their countries.
Dr. A. Azad said that the SAARC Agriculture Centre
has started in 1988 for policy planning and
management of agriculture. According to him,
weather based AAS and technology development for
dissemination of Agromet advisories are some of the
objectives of the centre. Dr. Azad informed that SAC
has initiated a programme on impact of climate on
agriculture in SAARC countries and to reduce the
negative impacts and to take corrective steps and
capacity building for the same.He appreciated the AAS activities in India which already
shared theseexperiences with neighbouringcountries. He also advised that if
recommendations of the meeting are implemented, there would be scope to minimise the
losses. He hoped that India would take a lead in this regard in future also.
Dr.S.D.Attri has read the message of
Dr.L.S.Rathore, Director General of Meteorology,
IMD, New Delhi. At the outset, Dr. Rathore
complimented both WMO and SAC for extending
support in organising the meeting. He
communicated that this meeting would lead the way
to deliver the weather information to the farmers in
the Asian region. He also informed that weather and
climate information would help to reduce the impact
of adverse weather. According to him, modernisation of IMD has considerably improved
with the AAS and Agro AWS data particularly of leaf wetness duration would help to
forecast disease at certain stations. He also said that Doppler Weather Radar data would be
useful for nowcasting at some stations. He also informed the august gathering that using
200 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
improved observations, IMD has been able to generate district level weather forecast and
generate advisories and to disseminate the advisories to about 3 million farmers by SMS and
other modes. According to him under changing climate, IMD, WMO and SAARC have to
work jointly to try to solve the future problems. He stressed for more collaboration among
IMD, WMO and SAARC and the countries in RA II region.
Dr.A.Kashyapi, Scientist E, IMD, Pune proposed
the vote of thanks. In this meeting
sixteenpresentations along with the discussion
were made in three technical sessions.
In the Technical Session-I, nine important
presentations were made with the theme on
“Operational Agromet Advisory Services in
SAARC countries” by Dr.S.K.Pal, Dr.M.Mondal,
Shri Jhanaki Prasad Khanal, Dr. M.N.Alam (on
behalf of Dr.M.Asim), Dr.H.K.Kadupitiya, Dr.A.M.Ramiz, Dr.ChimmiWangda,
Dr.Mohammed Abdul Mannan and Dr.N. Chattopadhyay.
Technical Session-II was arranged as joint session with SASCOF (South Asian Climate
Change Outlook Forum) organised by IMD and Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology
(IITM) and WMO during the same period. In this session Dr.D.S.Pai, Scientist E and Head,
Long Range weather Forecast Division, IMD, Pune and Smt (Dr.) Sulochana Gadgil made a
presentation on “Seasonal climate forecasting and agriculture in SAARC countries”. In
Technical session III, Mr. Robert Stefanski, Mrs.ValeyevaDilya (Uzbekistan) ,
Mrs.B.Erdenetseteg (Mongolia), and Mr. Ngo Tien Giang (Vietnam) made presentations on
“Operational Agromet Services in Non SAARC countries in the RA II region”. As a Guest
lecture,Dr. S. Venkataraman, Former Director, IMD, Pune has gave a presentation on
requirement of providers and users of Agromet Advisory Services. After each presentation
there was discussion among the participants of the meeting from the view point of
improvement of Agromet Advisory Services particularly in the countries where it has not
been established as per the requirements of the users. The salient points emerged out of the
discussion has been properly considered in the recommendation and the action plan in the
penultimate session of the meeting. This was followed by the panel discussion to frame the
recommendations and action plan. Brief description of the different Technical Sessions is
given below.
Proceedings of WMO and SAARC meeting 201
Technical Session I
Theme:Operational Agro meteorology in SAARC countries
In this session, there were nine presentations
made by the participants of the SAARC
countries. The first presentation was made by
Dr.S.K.Pal on ‘Overview of Agromet Advisory
Services in SAARC countries”. He highlighted
the genesis of SAARC Agriculture Centre and
objectives of centre, level of Agromet Advisory
Services in SAARC countries and proposed
plan of work to improve the AAS in member
countries. He mentioned that SAARC
Agriculture Centre (SAC) has initiated a
program on “Impact of climatic parameters on agricultural production and minimizing crop
productivity losses through weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries”
during 2009. He stated that the Country Status report was invited on this aspect from all the
member countries and finally the samehasbeen received paper from Bangladesh, India,
Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. He informed that these Country Status Reports would be
discussed in details in this consultation meeting and that certain country specific as well as
region specific recommendations for improving the existing system would be developed. He
desired to provide valuable agro-meteorological information to the users through an interface
like Crop Weather Outlook of SAARC countries like Crop Weather Watch Group system in
India. He said that the future plan would be developing regional weather forecasting system,
establishment of Agromet advisory system network and Advisory dissemination mechanism.
Second presentation was made by Dr.
M.H.Mondal on “Impact of climate parameters
on Agricultural production and minimizing crop
productivity losses through weather forecast and
advisory service in Bangladesh”. Dr. Mondal
informed that the Bangladesh Meteorological
Department (BMD) is a government
organization under the Ministry of Defense and
the organization has two major wings: Storm
warning centre (SWC) and Agromet Division.
Dr. Mondol gave the following information. The
Agromet Division of BMD at present operates its activities through a network of 12 agro-
met stations. The stations are distributed over 7 divisions of the country. The forecast
information generated are disseminated by e-mail, website, fax and postal service to
different end users mainly DAE, AIS, Ministry of Agriculture, NARS, etc. The agromet
bulletin contains weather forecast for next 7 days (rainfall, temperature etc.), advisories for
the farmers (selection of technology, time of application of inputs, etc.) and 7 days location-
202 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
specific deterministic forecast (rainfall, temp.). Model outputs of international
meteorological centers like ECMWF (EU), NCEP (USA), JMA (Japan), MRWFC (India)
etc. are used for making deterministic forecast.Forecast information and advisories are useful
to address several risks like drought, flood and late blight diseases in Bangladesh to
minimize crop losses.
Third presentation was made by Shri Janaki Prasad
Khanal on “Present Status of Operational Agromet
Services in Nepal”. In his presentation he informed
about the climate change adaptation and disaster risk
management practices in Nepal. He said that
Agrometeorological advisory service (AAS) in Nepal
is at rudimentary stage. He said that at present the
Agromet Section of Department of Hydrology and
Meteorology (DHM), Ministry of Environment is
responsible for preparation of crop calendar of different weather to help agriculture. He also
stated that the existing AAS generation and dissemination mechanism is under the
collaboration of Ministry of Environment, Ministry of Agriculture and Ministry of Science
and Technology. He informed that at National Level, DHM publishes weekly, monthly, and
quarterly weather report, crop calendar and 24 hours weather forecasting for general public.
AICC of MOAC publishes bi-monthly agricultural bulletin, broadcasts from Radio Nepal
and Nepal TV, PD under DOA and NARCpublishes quarterly and annual bulletins,AED
under DOA has maintained Agriculture Knowledge Bank. At regional level, RAD under
DOA publishes quarterly and annual bulletin, weekly broadcast from Radio Nepal and
NARS under NARC publishes research bulletins. He also proposed the strategy and set-up
for a proposed district level AAS system in Nepal.
The fourth presentation was made byDr. M.N. Alam
on“Agromet Advisory Services in Pakistan” on behalf
of Dr.M.Asim, who could not make to attend the
meeting. Dr. Alam said that Pakistan Meteorological
Department (PMD) is responsible to provide
professional services to the development of agricultural
sector in the country through its weather forecasting
mechanism. He has presented the following
information on weather forecast and agromet services
in Pakistan. The existing Weather Forecasting System
of PMD (R&D division) is carrying out various modelling activities for attaining a
purposeful forecast. The major activities include numerical modelling, regional climate
modelling and numerical weather forecasting systems. The fully functional National (1) and
Regional (4) Agromet Centres regularly publish Decadal Agromet Bulletin and Monthly
Agromet Bulletin of Pakistan for the farming community. Weather and flood forecasting by
PMD is disseminated through national media (TV, radio, press and mobile phones), weekly
and seasonal weather forecast for farmers through TV, radio, press and mobile phones and
seasonal forecast for water availability by PMD and WAPDA.
Proceedings of WMO and SAARC meeting 203
Fifth presentation was made by
Dr.H.K.Kadupitiya on “Agromet Advisory
Services in Sri Lanka”. He briefed about the
following operational climate monitoring and
prediction Systems in use for water management
in Sri Lanka. Monthly Bulletin on crop forecast
is issued by Socio-economic Center of
Department of Agriculture.Forecasting of paddy
area and yield by remote sensing is being taken
up. Agro-based weather forecast (WF) is not
issued by DOM due to lack of resources and
expertise. DOM use climatological averages (30 years) as a tool for Long Range Weather
Forecasting.He proposed establishment of an Agro-met Forecasting Cell at the Department
of Agriculture (DOA) with a team of Scientists and Extension Agronomists linking this cell
directly to the National Meteorological Center (NMC) of the Department of Meteorology
(DOM).
Sixth presentation was made by Mr. A.M.Ramiz
on “Status of Agrometeorological Service in the
Maldives”. He briefed about weather observation
network, information on severe weather events in
Maldives, weather information provided to the
users and crops grown. He said that no
information is provided to farmers on operational
basis at present and there are no trained staffs in
the field of Agrometeorology. He informed that a
workshop for stakeholders has been planned with
support of WMO and RIMESfor first week May 2012 to share the first monsoon forecast.
He also added that technical and financial support is also required to formulate a plan to
develop Agrometeorology and to train the staff in the field.
Seventh presentation was made by
Dr.Chimmi Wangda on “Current status of
operational Agromet Advisory Services in
Bhutan”. He said that the Department of
Hydromet Services (DHMS) was Hydromet
Services Division since 2002 and Department
of Energy was bifurcated into three new
departments in December 2011. He added
that there are four divisions under the
Department and Agromet/ climatology forms
one of the four sections under the
Meteorology Division. He informed that
farming in Bhutan mainly depends on maize, rice, vegetables and cash crops. He is very
hopeful that once Agromet office is operational, it is expected to improve the service by
providing timely Agro meteorological services to the farmers. At present the weather
forecast is disseminated to the public through national TV, radio and newspapers.
204 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
Eighth presentation was made by Md. Abdul
Mannan on “Role and Responsibilities of
Bangladesh Meteorological Department”.
He presented on the observational network,
forecasting techniques, warning messaging
system in Bangladesh. He mentioned that
weekly agromet forecasts and advisory are
being prepared and the same is also
displayed in WAMIS website
(www.wamis.org). He also made a
presentation on “Role and responsibilities of
SAARC Meteorological Research Centre
(SMRC) for Operational Meteorological/Agrometeorological Advisory Services in SAARC
countries”. He informed that at the 17th Governing Board Meeting, the proposed programme
for 2012 were on the thematic areas of Monsoon Initiatives, Severe Thunderstorm, Tropical
Cyclones andClimate Change. He also added that under capacity building a four weeks
training course on “Forecasts for extreme events by using NWP Techniques” would be held
in Delhi, India and three days seminar on ‘Heavy Rainfall Forecasts by NWP and its
validation over the SAARC Region’ would be held in Bhutan during 2nd Quarter (May) of
2012. He informed that weather forecasts for SAARC countries were prepared and placed in
SMRC website for benefit of SAARC countries.
Ninth presentation was made by Dr.
N.Chattopadhyay on “Agromet Advisory
Services in India”. He has given comprehensive
information of the agromet service in India by
presenting organisation structure, preparation of
forecast and advisory at district level,
dissemination under multi-purpose dissemination
system, feedback mechanism, economic
assessment and future strategies etc. He said that
many organisations are working together in
multidisciplinary approach and at National, State
and district level and that the advisories are being
prepared. He informed that under modernisation programme, a reasonable network of AWS
is being installed in India. Dr. Chattopadhyay has also furnished the following information in
respect of the AAS in India. In IMD’s modernization plan,all the meteorological data will
be used in GIS platform to generate various Agromet products to facilitate the preparation of
district level agro advisories at different Agrometeorological Field Units (AMFUs). The use
of crop weather calendars, pest weather calendars and aridity anomaly maps are being
prepared for farming agromet advisory. The dissemination of agromet advisory is being
undertaken in public partnership mode where SMS service is important one. Several partners
are likely to disseminate the advisory in this mode. The Agromet advisory service is being
popularized through awareness programmes to the farmers, field visits and circulation of
brochures in different languages. Crop yield forecasting at the National level is being
undertaken under FASAL project. In XIIth Five Year Plan, the GraminKrishiMausamSewa
project would be taken up to further strengthen the AAS in India.
Proceedings of WMO and SAARC meeting 205
Technical Session II
Theme: Seasonal forecast and Agriculture
In this session, two presentations were made on
the above theme. First presentation was made
by Dr.D.S.Pai, Scientist E & Head, Long Range
Weather Forecasting, IMD on “Status of
seasonal climate forecast in SAARC”. He
briefly discussed the South West Monsoon in
India. He showed the close relation between
crop production and rainfall in India. He also
showed the relation between ISMR and GDP
agriculture. He informed that National Monsoon
Mission project in the country was started for
coupled model for long range forecasting. Also, the SASCOF initiative has been taken up
to enhance the seasonal prediction capabilities in coordination with WMO and at present
forecast for south Asian region is prepared with experts of SAARC countries along with IRI,
WMO, JMA etc. as the output of SASCOF meeting.
An interesting and thought provocation presentation
was made byDr.Sulochana Gadgil, an eminent
scientist in Atmospheric Science in India on “Use of
seasonal climate forecasting for Agriculture”. She
said that seasonal forecasting on all India scale had a
large impact on agriculture. She showed that
deficiency of -10% over all India has more impact
than excess of 10% in agriculture. She stated that
rainfed production has not increased because the
research programmes are scientist oriented and
seasonal prediction should have one sided prediction
like drought prediction etc. She inferred that it is important to educate farmers and scientists
in seasonal climate forecasting. She discussed the various strategies for generating climate
forecast variables.
These presentations were followed by the discussion on operational aspects of seasonal
forecast on agriculture in SAARC countries. It was agreed that the users need must be taken
into account even in experimental mode. Also the participants agreed that seasonal forecasts
are best used for macro scale (continent) features and that this information would be best
suited for input managers and planners at state and national level. It was requested that such
observations of the gathering may be included in the recommendation of the SASCOF
meeting.
206 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
Technical Session III
Theme: Operational Agrometeorolgy in Non SAARC countries in RA II region
Five presentations were made during the session.
First presentation was made by Mr.Robert Stefanski
on “Overview of WMO’s Agricultural Meteorology
Activities”. He stated that WMO is the United
Nations agency for weather, climate, hydrology and
water resources and related environmental issues.
He informed that there are 189 members from
National Meteorological and Hydrological Services
(NMHS). WMO is composed of 10 major scientific
and technical programmes (Secretariat), 8 Technical
Commissions which advise and guide activities of
programmes (Experts) and 6 Regional Associations
involved in implementation.He noted that the
Commission of Agricultural Meteorology supports the development of Agromet Services of
Members by transfer of knowledge and methodology and by providing advice on various
subjects and methods, procedures and techniques for the provision of meteorological
services to agriculture (all sectors). He added that WMO assists in organizing Roving
Seminars on Weather, Climate and Farmers in West Africa and other countries where
agrometeorological advice was prepared and provided to the farmers along with the
raingauges.He also described the meaningful feature ofWAMIS (www.wamis.org) which
helps member countries to disseminate and improve their agro meteorological products. He
also said that as a dedicated web server, WAMIS allows countries to place their existing
agrometeorological bulletins and advisories on a near real-time basis. He also briefly
presented the on-going and proposed activities of the recently initiated Severe Weather
Forecasting Demonstration Project and application of NWP in agriculture.
Second presentation was made by Mrs.
ValeyevaDilya on “Operational Agromet
Service in Uzbekistan”. She informed that
Centre of Hydrometeorological Service
(Uzhydromet) is the state governing body
specially authorized for the solution of tasks in
the field of hydrometeorology in the Republic
of Uzbekistan and in its activities it is
accountable to Cabinet of Ministers.
According to her, Department of
Agrometeorological forecasts in the centre
support the needs of Agromet and the tasks fulfilled by the Department are the assessment of
the past and expected agrometeorological conditions of the growth, vegetation and formation
Proceedings of WMO and SAARC meeting 207
of crops, forecasting of the rate of vegetation of agricultural crops, time of the main field
activities (sowing, harvest, defoliation, cutting of mulberry tree, opening of vineyards, etc.)
and assessment of the productivity of pastures. She also added that the Department also
provides special agromet advisory for cotton farmers in Uzbekistan.
Third presentation was made by
Mrs.B.Erdenestetsegon “Agrometeorological
Advisory Service in Mongolia”. She showed how
the National Agency for Meteorology and
Environment Monitoring of Mongolia
conductsAgrometeorological
observation/Monitoring, Agrometeorological
service and Research studies. She said that the
objectiveof the Agromet service is to provide the
government, organizations, agents and people with
agrometeorological services and products by
providing decadal, monthly and seasonal agrometeorological bulletins. She also showed how
Agromet forecasts covers soil thawing and freezing date, spring soil moisture, wheat heading
and wax maturity date, yield of wheat and potato, biomass of pasture and Ewe (female
sheep) weight. She stated that the objectives of research are modeling of pasture yield and
crop productions, improving satellite and ground data based monitoring, data acquisition and
database technology and studying the impacts of climate change on agricultural productions,
its assessment and future projection.
Fourth presentation was made by Mr. Ngo
TienGiangon“Agro-meteorological Services in Vietnam”.
He stated that main activities of Agro-meteorological
Monitoring and Forecasting are the assessment and wise-use
of agroclimate resources, crop yield forecasting,
agrometeorological information consulting services,
agrometeorology serving, sustainable agricultural
development and food security. In addition to that he said
that the experimental studies at stations are also carried out
on tropical agrometeorological problem and adaptability of
imported new or hybrid varieties and issue
agrometeorological bulletins and forecasts. He also
mentioned about agrometeorological bulletins (monthly,
seasonal) which contains weather forecast in agricultural
aspect, agrometeorological forecast on main stages of
growing of crop, agrometeorological seasonal report and
other report from requests of users. He also explained the
state of art technology i.e. GIS and Satellite technology are used in some of operational
service (bulletin, crop yield forecasts, making agro-ecological and agro-climatic zoning) and
crop yield simulations are used for developing / customize for strengthening operational
activities and yield forecasting of rice.
208 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
Fifth presentation was made by
Dr.S.Venkataraman as a Guest lecturer on
“Requirements of Providers and Users of
Agromet Advisory Services”. He said that
study of crop-weather situations in recent
past ten years were conducted to draw up
contingency crop plans for late start of crop
season of both rainfed and irrigated crops,
change of varieties/crops, cut-off dates for
their sowing/planting,planting density etc.
He emphasised the agronomic technologies
that are developed for mid-seasonal weather vagaries and protection from pests and diseases.
According to him, Medium Range weather forecasts (MRWFs) offer the highest potential for
real-time use as inputs for farming operations. Dr. S.Venkataraman added that Crop Weather
Calendars can help examine the actually realized crop-weather situations in terms of
aberrations from normal in the recent past at a location for a post-facto analyses of what was
done or what could have been done to mitigate crop losses.
At the end, panel discussion was organised
inviting Mr. Robert Stefanski, Dr. A.Azad,
Dr.N. Chattopadhyay, Dr.K.K. Singh, Dr.
M.N.Alam, Dr.S.K.Pal and Dr.H.P.Das for
developing the future activities and
preparing the recommendation and action
plan of the meeting. Based on the
presentations from different countries and
experts, in-depth discussion was made on
strategies and streamlines the activities of
Agromet Advisory Service in SAARC and
Non SAARC countries.
Proceedings of WMO and SAARC meeting 209
7. RECOMMENDATIONS AND ACTION PLAN:
Based on the agreement of the panel of experts, recommendations and action plans were
made on the four major areas: 1. Weather Forecasts 2. Agromet Advisory Services 3.
Dissemination 4. Policy issues
1. Weather Forecasts
A. Recommendation: Available weather forecast products may be shared amongst the
countries in the RA-II region (SAARC and Non -SAARC countries) for preparation
of Agromet Advisories.
Action Plan:Regional Forecasting Centres may generate the forecast and share the
products with the neighboring countries.
Period of Implementation:Six months to one year.
B. Recommendation: Medium Range Weather Forecast (MRWF) for 5-7days may be
developed for use in AAS.
Action Plan: WMO and Regional Centres should assist the lead countries in
developing MRWF for all the countries in the region
Period of Implementation: Within 3 years
2. Agromet Advisory Services
A. Recommendation: There is need to establish AAS centres in each country.
Action Plan: Each country should submit proposal including technical and financial
requirement to the respective Government. Permanent Representative of WMO of
each country may initiate the process to form a steering committee (involving the
Departments of Agriculture, Meteorology and allied Departmentsetc.) that will
identify the appropriate persons to prepare the proposal.
Period of Implementation:6 months
B. Recommendation: There should be appropriate manpower available in the Agromet
Division.
Action Plan: Steering committee to propose to the concerned Ministry regarding
the manpower recruitment (both technical and supportive).
Period of Implementation: One year
C. Recommendation: Arrangement may be made for proper infrastructure in the
Agromet Division
Action Plan: Construction of building and setting up of state of art instruments may
be included in the project proposal submitted to the concerned organization.
Period of Implementation: 3 years
210 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
D. Recommendation: Arrangement may be made for Capacity Building in Forecasting
and Agrometeorology.
Action Plan: WMO and Regional Centres should assist in Capacity Building in
forecasting as well as preparation of agromet advisories.
Period of Implementation: Three Years
3. Dissemination
A. Recommendation: Proactive initiative may be started to disseminate the agromet
advisories through Mass media, Internet, mobile & Extension services.
Action Plan: Implementing organization may develop linkages with collaborative
organisations as well as private firms to disseminate the advisories.
Period of Implementation: Two Years
B. Recommendation: There is need to developfeedback mechanism to assess the
agromet advisories.
Action Plan: A system may be developed to get the accuracy of the forecast and
advisories issued to the users from different stake holders and even users also. State
of art technology may be used in obtaining the feedback.
Period of Implementation: Two Years.
4. Policy issues
A. Recommendation:There is need toraise awareness on importance and benefits of
AAS.
Action Plan: Exchange of available information / brochure, exposure visits and
meeting with SAARC and other countries of RAII region particularly in India.
Period of Implementation: Two Years
B. Recommendation: National and International collaboration on AAS may be
initiated.
Action Plan: MOU with different national/international organisations and also
private firms may be signed to strengthen the AAS and also encourage to develop
collaborative projects with WMO, SAC and other organisations in this regard.
Period of Implementation: Three Years
C. Recommendation: Review and refinement of existing policies.
Action Plan: If needed, concerned department of the country in the RA II region
may consult and convince the competent authority to review and refine the existing
policies.
Period of Implementation: Two Years
Proceedings of WMO and SAARC meeting 211
8. Programme Details
Friday, 20 April 2012
OPENING OF THE MEETING
09.30 - 09.40 Lighting of Lamp and Invocation
09.40 - 09.50 Welcome address by Dr. N. Chattopadhyay, Head, Agricultural
Meteorology, Division, IMD, Pune
09.50 -10.00 Address by Shri S. Krishnaiah, Additional Director General of
Meteorology (Research), IMD, Pune
10.00 -10.10 Address by AVM (Dr.) Ajit Tyagi, Former Director General of
Meteorology, IMD & Permanent Representative of WMO
10.10 -10.20 Address by Dr. R. R. Kelkar, Former Director General of
Meteorology, IMD
10.20 -10.30 Address by Mr. Robert Stefanski, Chief, Agricultural Meteorology
Division, WMO, Geneva
10.30 -10.40 Address by Dr. Abul Kalam Azad, Director, SAARC Agriculture
Centre, Dhaka, Bangladesh
10.40 -10.50 Message from Dr. L.S. Rathore, Director General of Meteorology,
presented by Dr. S.D. Attri
10.50 - 11.00 Vote of thanks by Dr. A. Kashyapi, Scientist-E, Agricultural
Meteorology Division, IMD, Pune
11.00 -11.30 High Tea
SESSION 1:Operational Agrometeorology in SAARC Countries
Chairman: Mr. Robert Stefanski Rapporteur: Dr. A. Kashyapi
11.30 -11.50 Overview of Agromet Advisory Services in SAARC countries by
Dr. S.K. Pal, Deputy Director Agriculture, SAARC Agriculture
Centre
11.50 -12.10 Agromet Advisory Services in Bangladesh by Dr. Mohammad H.
Mondal
12.10 -12.30 Agromet Advisory Services in Nepal by Mr. Janaki Prasad Khanal
12.30- 12.50 Agromet Advisory Services in Pakistan by Dr. Muhammad
NurulAlam
12.50 -13.10 Discussion
13.10 -14.00 Lunch Break
Remaining part of the Session I arranged on 21st April
SESSION 2 :Seasonal forecast and Agriculture (Joint Session with South
Asian RCOF)
Chairman: Dr. Abul Kalam Azad Rapporteur: Dr. K. Ghosh
14.00 -14.20 Status of seasonal climate forecast in SAARC by Dr. D. S. Pai
14.20 -14.40 Use of seasonal forecast in agriculture by (Dr.) Sulochana Gadgil
14.40 -15.40 Discussion on Seasonal Forecast and Agricultural Applications
212 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
15.40-16.00 Tea break
16.00-17.30 Discussion on Seasonal Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF)
Saturday, 21 April 2012 SESSION 1 continued ---------
09.30-10.00 Agromet Advisory Services in Sri Lanka by Dr.H.K. Kadupitiya
10.00 -10.30 Agromet Advisory Services in Maldives by Mr. Abdul Muhsin
Ramiz
10.30 -11.00 Agromet Advisory Services in Bhutan by Dr. Chimmi Wangda
11.00 -11.30 Tea break
11.30 -12.00 Agromet Advisory Services in India by Dr. N. Chattopadhyay
12.00 -13.00 Discussion
13.00 -14.00 Lunch break SESSION 3 : Operational Agrometeorology in Non-SAARC Countries in RA II
Region
Chairman: Dr. H. P. Das Rapporteur: Shri R. Balasubramanian
14.00-14.20 Overview of WMO Agricultural Meteorology Programme by Mr.
Robert Stefanski, Chief, Agricultural Meteorology Division, WMO,
Geneva
14.20-14.40 Agromet Advisory Service in Uzbekistan by Mrs. Valeyeva Dilya
14.40-15.00 Agromet Advisory Service in Mongolia by Mrs. Erdenetsetseg
Baasandai
15.00-15.20 Agromet Advisory Service in Viet Nam by Dr. NGO Tien Giang
15.20-15.30 Requirements of Providers and Users of Agromet Advisory
Services by Dr. S. Venkatraman
15.30-15.45 Tea Break
15.45-16.45 Panel Discussion (Dr. Abul Kalam Azad, Mr. Robert Stefanski,
Dr. S. K. Pal, Dr. Muhammad NurulAlam, Dr. H.P.Das, Dr.K.K.
Singh, Dr. N. Chattopadhyay)
16.45-17.00 Recommendations
17.00-18.00 Valedictory Function and Vote of Thanks
Acronyms 213
Acronyms used in the document
AAS - Agrometeorological Advisory Service AED- Agriculture Extension Directorate AICRPAM All India Coordinated Research Project on Agrometeorology AIR All India Radio AMFUs AgroMet Field Unit AMU- Agrometeorological Advisory Unit APSIM Agricultural Production System SIMulator ARG Automatic Rain Gauge ARM Annual Review Meeting ASC- Agriculture Service Center ATMA Agricultural Technology Management Agency AWS Automatic Weather Stations BDO Block Development Officer CCC Canandian Climate Centre CMO Central Meteorological Organization CSC Common Service Centre CWWG Crop Weather Watch Group DADO- District Agricultural Development Office DAMU District Agromet Field Unit DAO District Agriculture offices DHM- Department of Hydrology and Meteorology DOA- Department of Agriculture DSS Decision Support System DSSAT Decision Support System for Agrometeorology Transfer DST Department of Science and Technology ECMWF European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting ENSO El Niño Southern Oscillation ESP Economic Survey of Pakistan ET Evapotranspiration GCM Global Circulation Model GDD Growing Degree Days GDP Gross Domestic Production GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory GHG - Greenhouse gas GIS Geographical Information System GTS- Global Telecommunication System GTS- Global Telecommunication System ha Hectares HRM High Resolution Model IAAS Integrated Agro-Meteorological Advisory Service ICAO- International Civil Aviation Organization ICAR Indian Council of Agriculture Research ICT Information & Communication Technology
214 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries
ICT- Information and Communication Technology IHP- International Hydrological Program IITs Indian Institute of Technologies IKSL IFFCO Kisan Sanchar Limited IMD India Meteorological Department IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IPCC- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IT Information Technology IVR Interactive Voice Response JJAS June July August September JMA Japan Meteorological Agency kg Kilograms KVKs Krishi Vigyan Kendras MCs Meteorological Centres MD Monsoon Depression MFA Most Favourable Areas mKRISHI mobile KRISHI mm Millimeter MM5 Mesoscale Model version 5 MMET Multi Model Ensemble Technique MO Meteorological Observatories MoES Ministry of Earth Science MONTCLIM Monsoon and Tropical Climate and Agrometeorology Programme MoU Memorandum of Understanding MSA Most Severely Affected Areas MSSRF MS Swaminathan Research Foundation NABARD National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development NAMC National Agro-Met Centre NARC National Agricultural Research Centre NARC- Nepal Agricultural Research Council NATP National Infrastructure Technology Program NCA National Commission of Agriculture NCAP National Centre for Agricultural Economics and policy Research NCEP National Centre for Environmental Prediction NCMRWF National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast NDVI Normalized Difference Vegetation Index NGO- Non-governmental Organization NGOs Non-Governmental Organization NWP Numerical Weather Prediction OHP- Operational Hydrology Program P Precipitation PAR Photosynthetically Active Radiation PE Potential Evapotraspiration PMD Pakistan Meteorological Department R & D Research & Development R&D Research & Development
Acronyms 215
RegCM3 Regional Climate Model version 3 RH Relative Humidity RHC Red Hairy Caterpiller RML Reuter Market Light SAARC South Asian Association For Regional Cooperation
SADIS Satellite Distribution Information System SALT Slope Agriculture Land Technology SAU State Agriculture University SD Standard Deviation SMC State Meteorological Centres SMS Short Message Service SO Southern Oscillation SOI Southern Oscillation Index TC Tropical Cyclone TCS Tata Consultancy Services TSI Thermal Sensitivity Index UKHI UK Met Office high resolution UKMO United Kingdom Met Office UKTR UK Met Office transient experiment USAID United States Agency for International Development VDC Village Development Committee VKC Village Knowledge Centre VPN Virtual Private Network VRC Village Resource Centre WD Western Disturbances WMO World Meteorological Organization
216 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries