School of something FACULTY OF OTHER

Impact of climate change on

bicycle counts

Zia Wadud, PhD DIC

University Research Fellow

Centre for Integrated Energy Research

Institute for Transport Studies, and

School of Process, Environmental and Materials Engineering

What are the plausible ranges of changes in

hourly/daily bicycle use due to climate change?

Objectives

What would be bicycle flow today, if we

had the changed climate of the future?

Modelling framework

Econometric Model Simulation

Cycle

counts

Weather

elements

Other

factors

Count

Model

Projected

Count

Others

constant

Projected

weather

Count

changes

Baseline

counts

100 UKCP Weather Simulations

29 TfL Hourly Counters

Rain TempWind

SunshineHumidity

Snow

Income, Employment, Bus fare, Congestion

charge, School holidays, Strike, Bike infrastructure

2009 2011

0

1

2

3

4

5

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Ho

urly

in

te

rce

pt

Start time for the hour of the day

99 101 103 140141 173 192 194195 200 501 508510 518 520 526528 532 534 536538 540 542 548550 551 98 102170

Both peaks

Morning peak

Evening peak

Result: Count Model: Hourly and Daily Variations

-0.20

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

Mon Tues Wed Thurs Fri

Da

y o

f w

ee

k i

nte

rce

pt

Day of week

98 99 101 102 103140 141 170 173 192194 195 200 501 508510 518 520 526 528532 534 536 538 540542 548 550 551

Rain: Reduces flow; clear non-linear impact

Temperature: Increases, then reduces flow after

threshold temp.

Wind: Reduces flow, non-linear impact

Snow: Reduces flow, large impact

Sunshine hours: Increases flow

Humidity: Reduces flow

Impact on weekend/leisure cycling generally larger

Result: Count Model: Weather Effects Summary

Result: Climate Impact: Distribution of Annual Changes

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Freq

uenc

y

% change in annual average hourly flows (2011 baseline)

2041 vs. 2011

Result: Climate Impact: Seasonal Impacts Summary

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Winter Spring Summer Autumn Annual

% c

han

ges

in a

vera

ge h

ou

rly

flo

ws

All days

Weekdays

Weekends

ΔTemp.

ΔRain

Substantial, sometimes non-linear weather effects on cycling

Net climate change effects on cycling positive, but marginal

Strong seasonal effects: Substantial increases in summer

Conclusions

Thank you

z.wadud@leeds.ac.uk

Full paper ‘cycling in a changed climate’ available at:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0966692314000027

Picture references:

http://abc.ccracinginc.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/Cycling-Rain-Umbrella.jpg

http://cdn2-

b.examiner.com/sites/default/files/styles/image_content_width/hash/81/95/1362606758_4667_cycling%20in%20rain.jpg?ito

k=DBsjhqJL

http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Environment/Pix/pictures/2011/6/28/1309268182477/Clamping-your-style-...-t-007.jpg

http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/65399000/jpg/_65399168_postman_sent_by_nick_todd_surrey.jpg

http://img.rasset.ie/00059b93-642.jpg

http://columbian.media.clients.ellingtoncms.com/img/photos/2013/07/19/688178_exercise_in_heat_134.jpg

https://www.flickr.com/photos/yourdon/4215944778/

Result: Count Model Weather parameters Weekday Weekend Other parameters Weekday Weekend

RAIN 0-1mm -0.048 -0.034 Hourly Wage Rate -0.022 0.043

RAIN 1-2mm -0.116 -0.114 Unemployment Rate 0.018 0.018

RAIN 2-3mm -0.090 -0.176 Bus Fare 0.107 0.177

RAIN >3mm -0.084 -0.155 CONGESTION CHARGE 0.096 0.186

LAGRAIN (rain in prev. hour) -0.115 -0.148 INFRASTRUCTURE (Bike share,

bicycle superhighway) 0.031 0.039

TEMPERATURE <(-5°c) -0.480 -0.365

TEMPERATURE (-5)-0°c -0.355 -0.480 STRIKE 0.166 -0.313

TEMPERATURE 0-5°c -0.178 -0.345 SCHOOL HOLIDAY -0.126 -0.103

TEMPERATURE 5-10°c -0.091 -0.206 ΣMONTH (Dummies for months)

TEMPERATURE 10-15°c -0.038 -0.077 ΣCOUNTER (Dummies for counter

locations)TEMPERATURE 20-25°c 0.032 0.044

TEMPERATURE >25°c 0.023 0.039 ΣCOUNTER×HOUR (Interaction of

COUNTER and time of the day)

See Fig.

belowWIND 5-10 knots -0.011 -0.021

WIND 10-15knots -0.047 -0.105 ΣCOUNTER×DAY (Interaction of

COUNTER and days of the week)

See Fig.

below WIND 15-20knots -0.091 -0.167

WIND >20 knots -0.160 -0.202

SNOW -0.404 -0.401 N 449,064 200,246

Relative Humidity -0.182 -0.456

Sunshine Hours 0.040 0.059