immediate planning in areas action plan€¦ · hazard assessment elements at risk (db)...
TRANSCRIPT
05/05/2015
1
Risk Assessment
&
Immediate Action Plan Planning in areas
facing Natural Hazards
Planning Of Environmentally
Special Regions
Dr Safaa Ghoneim
Faculty Of Urban & Regional Planning
Risk=V*H
H = hazard & V = vulnerability
2
Risk Assessment
05/05/2015
2
1. Hazard assessment
2. Elements at risk (Db)
3. Vulnerability Assessment
4. Risk Assessment
Planning
Risk Assessment
1. Category/ Degree/intensity
2. Probability/Frequency: Highly Likely
3. Magnitude: Scale, Extent, …,
4. Warning Time: hours, days, …
5. Duration: hours, days, weeks,..
(H)…. Hazard Assessment
Scenario
Building History
Analysis
05/05/2015
3
Hazard analysis/matrix Flo
od
ing
(H
1)
Da
te
X
(Onset Speed
+
For-warnin
g +
Duration +
Intensity ) X Impact
(H)…. Hazard Assessment
1st 1980 Rapid 1 h 1 day 4 R 15 h, ….
2nd 1987 Rapid 30 min 2 day 4.5 R 30 h, ….
3rd 1992 v rapid 5 min 3days 6.5 R 450 h, 20d, …
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Scen.1 2016 ? ? ? ? ???????? Scen.2 2020 ? ? ? ? ????????
Scenario
Building
History
Analysis
Examples of Parameters to be considered in flooding:
• Elevation (topography)
• Catchment area /watershed,
• Slops,
• Expected SLR/
• Density of rains
• Types of soil
• …..
6
(H) … Hazard Assessment
05/05/2015
4
Individual Hazards Assessment
RISK
1 - High
2 - Medium CATEGORY Impossible Improbable Remote Occasional Probable Frequent
3 - Low Catastrophic
Critical
Marginal
Negligible
(H) … Hazard Assessment
Hazard analysis/matrix
Pro
bab
ility
X
(Onset
Speed
+
For-
warning +
Dura-
tion +
Inten-
sity ) X
Im-
pact
Risk #1
(H)…. Hazard Assessment
H1 Low Rapid Short ? days 7 R high
H2 high slow mid weeks 5 m high
Scenario
Building History
Analysis
05/05/2015
5
Hazard assessment
Elements at risk (Db)
Vulnerability
Assessment
Risk Assessment
Mitigation Plan
Risk Assessment
To identify the elements that can experience hazard.
Not only Physical Conditions, but Social characteristics determines Vulnerability to Natural Hazards
Elements at risk (Db)
05/05/2015
6
To identify the elements that can experience hazard.
Elements at risk (Db)
05/05/2015
7
Hazard assessment
Elements at risk (Db)
Vulnerability
Assessment
Risk Assessment
Mitigation Plan
Risk Assessment
Vulnerability is the conditions determined by physical, social, economic, and environmental factors or processes,
which increase the susceptibility of a community to the impact of hazards.
V Vulnerability Assessment
R=H*V
05/05/2015
8
V Vulnerability Assessment
Example of social
factors that should
be considered:
Age, gender,
ethnicity, income
and assets all play an
important role in the
ability to handle
crises such as natural
disasters,.. etc
Social Vulnerability Physical Vulnerability
V Vulnerability Assessment
05/05/2015
9
V Vulnerability Assessment
V Vulnerability Assessment
05/05/2015
10
V Vulnerability Assessment
V Vulnerability Assessment
05/05/2015
11
For each type (criteria design):
• Characteristics determining the element’s vulnerability
• Weights of these Characteristics
• Evaluate the existing & future conditions
V Vulnerability Assessment
V1
(b
uild
ing
s)
Ag
e
%
Ma
teri
al
%
Fou
nd
ati
on
%
……
%
,,,,,
%
We
igh
t
B1 150 92
B1 80 86
B3 20 56
05/05/2015
12
Risk Assessment
Hazard assessment
Elements at risk (Db)
Vulnerability
Assessment
Risk Assessment
Mitigation Plan
05/05/2015
13
Haiti
R=H*V
Recovery/
Short-term plan
Management
Preparedness
Action Plan
Management
Response/
Immediate
Action Plan
Mitigation/
Long-term plan
Role of Land use/physical Planning
26
05/05/2015
14
Response Plan = Immediate action
• Aims to Minimise The Damage
• Includes: • Assessment of damage حصر الخسائر
• Assessment of needs تقذير االحتياج
• Resource analysis تحليل االمكانات
• Management actions قرارات ادارة االزمة
• Distribution &Allocation المكانيالتوزيع
• Transportation عمليات النقل
27
• Critical Facility: Facilities that are critical to the health and safety of the population and that are especially important following hazard events.
• Critical facilities include but are not limited to:
• Shelters,
• Police,
• Fire Stations, &
• Hospitals.
Response / Immediate action Plan