ihic 2014 panel #1: investment outlook - blue skies? (tom oakden)

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Source: JLL Asia Pacific Hotel Investment By Tom Oakden

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PANEL #1: INVESTMENT OUTLOOK - BLUE SKIES? Moderator: Eric J. Levy, Managing Director, Tourism Solutions International (TSI) Panellists: Budi Tirtawisata, Group CEO, Panorama Group Alexander Jovanovic, General Manager, The Trans Luxury Hotel Bandung Tom Oakden, Executive Vice President - Investment Sales in Asia, Jones Lang LaSalle's Hotels & Hospitality Group

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: IHIC 2014 Panel #1: INVESTMENT OUTLOOK - BLUE SKIES? (Tom Oakden)

Source: JLL

Asia Pacific Hotel InvestmentBy Tom Oakden

Page 2: IHIC 2014 Panel #1: INVESTMENT OUTLOOK - BLUE SKIES? (Tom Oakden)

Asia Pacific: 2013 was strongest performer since 2007

Source: JLL

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 -

2,000,000,000

4,000,000,000

6,000,000,000

8,000,000,000

10,000,000,000

12,000,000,000

14,000,000,000

Asia Australasia Forecast 2014

Tran

sact

ion

Volu

me

USD

Billio

ns

Page 3: IHIC 2014 Panel #1: INVESTMENT OUTLOOK - BLUE SKIES? (Tom Oakden)

Japan$2.6 bill

452%

Thailand$337.0 mill

38% Singapore$2.2 bill1,280%

China$1.1 bill

8%

Hong Kong$486.7 mill

19%

The Maldives$267.6 mill

614%

Asia Pacific: Investment volumes 2013 vs 2012

Australia$2.0 bill

110%

Japan25%

Singapore23%Australia

20%

China11%

Others8%

Hong Kong5%

Thailand3% Maldives

2%

South Korea1%

India1%

2013

Japan13%

Singapore5%

Australia27%

China29%

Others1%

Hong Kong12%

Thailand7%

Maldives1%

South Korea1%

India3% 2012

Source: JLL

Page 4: IHIC 2014 Panel #1: INVESTMENT OUTLOOK - BLUE SKIES? (Tom Oakden)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 H2 2012

H2 2013

0

2,000,000,000

4,000,000,000

6,000,000,000

8,000,000,000

10,000,000,000

12,000,000,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Total Investment Volume Price per Key

Tran

sact

ion

Volu

me

USD

Milli

ons

Price

per

Key

(USD

)

Asia Pacific: Price per key up 62% on strong sales activity

Source: JLL

Page 5: IHIC 2014 Panel #1: INVESTMENT OUTLOOK - BLUE SKIES? (Tom Oakden)

RevPAR decline slowing

RevPAR growth

slowing

RevPAR falling

RevPAR risingBali, Maldives, Macau

Yangon, Tokyo, Surabaya, Sydney, Melbourne

Beijing, Sanya

Jakarta

Hong Kong, Mumbai

Taipei, Seoul

Shanghai, Guangzhou

Asia Pacific: RevPAR recording improvement across markets

Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Osaka, Fukuoka, Delhi

Chengdu, Chennai

Manila

HCMC, Hanoi, Phuket

Bangkok

Page 6: IHIC 2014 Panel #1: INVESTMENT OUTLOOK - BLUE SKIES? (Tom Oakden)

Asia Pacific: Investor profile dominated by investment funds

Source: JLL

Investment Fund / Private Equity

29%Corporates16%

Developer / Property Company

15%

HNWI15%

REIT9%

Sovereign Wealth Fund8%

Hotel / SA Operator7%

Bank / Institutional Investor

2%

Page 7: IHIC 2014 Panel #1: INVESTMENT OUTLOOK - BLUE SKIES? (Tom Oakden)

7

Source: Ministry of Tourism and Creative Economy of the Republic of Indonesia

Bali Tourism Overview

1.1

1.5 1.51.3

1.7

2.1

2.42.5

2.82.9

3.3

3.75

0.70.8

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTDMar2013

YTDMar2014

Ann

ual G

row

th (%

)

Num

ber o

f Arr

ival

s (m

illio

ns)

International Visitor Arrivals to Bali, 2003 - 2014

Visitor Arrivals (millions) Annual Growth (%)

Source: Ministry of Tourism and Creative Economy of the Republic of Indonesia

JW Marriott Jakarta

Bombing

Australian Embassy Bombing

Bali Bombing II

GFC and JW Marriott & Ritz-Carlton Jakarta

bombings

Page 8: IHIC 2014 Panel #1: INVESTMENT OUTLOOK - BLUE SKIES? (Tom Oakden)

Source: JLL

Recent Transactions in Asia

Page 9: IHIC 2014 Panel #1: INVESTMENT OUTLOOK - BLUE SKIES? (Tom Oakden)

Tune Hotel Indonesia PortfolioUSD 55 million

Semara Seminyakc. USD 20 million

Pan Pacific Bali Nirwana USD 115 million

Indon

esia

Page 10: IHIC 2014 Panel #1: INVESTMENT OUTLOOK - BLUE SKIES? (Tom Oakden)

Windy Resort Lombok

The Latitude BaliIn excess of USD 6 million

Sold by

Sold by

Indon

esia

Page 11: IHIC 2014 Panel #1: INVESTMENT OUTLOOK - BLUE SKIES? (Tom Oakden)

Buddy Resort, Koh Samui

Outrigger Laguna Resort, Phuket Manathai Resort, Phuket

Kamala Cove, PhuketIn excess of USD 55 million

Sold by

Sold by Sold by

Sold by

Thailan

d

Page 12: IHIC 2014 Panel #1: INVESTMENT OUTLOOK - BLUE SKIES? (Tom Oakden)

Jumeirah Dhevanafushi USD 60 million(by JLL H&H)

Jumeirah DhevanafushiUSD 60 million

Angsana VelavaruUSD 71 million

Movenpick Mauritius USD 40 million

Six Senses LaamuUSD 70 million

Sold by

Sold by

Sold by

Sold by

Indian

Ocean

Page 13: IHIC 2014 Panel #1: INVESTMENT OUTLOOK - BLUE SKIES? (Tom Oakden)

Park Hotel Clarke Quay USD 240 million

The WestinUSD 370 million

Grand Park Orchard USD 370 million

Gallery Hotel USD 186 million

Sold by

Sold by

Singap

ore

Page 14: IHIC 2014 Panel #1: INVESTMENT OUTLOOK - BLUE SKIES? (Tom Oakden)

Namba Washington Hotel USD 87 million

Novotel Koshien USD 25 million

Japanese Portfolio c. USD 62 million

Sold by Sold by

Sold by

Japan

Page 15: IHIC 2014 Panel #1: INVESTMENT OUTLOOK - BLUE SKIES? (Tom Oakden)

Source: JLL

Thank You