ifps science steering team forum

IFPS Science Steering IFPS Science Steering Team ForumTeam Forum

November 8November 8thth, 2005, 2005

ISST MembershipISST Membership

Greg Mann – WFO Detroit (CR) – Lead Greg Mann – WFO Detroit (CR) – Lead Jim Nelson – WFO Anchorage (AR) – Backup Jim Nelson – WFO Anchorage (AR) – Backup

LeadLead Brad Colman – WFO Seattle (WR)Brad Colman – WFO Seattle (WR) Tom Salem – WFO Glasgow (WR) Tom Salem – WFO Glasgow (WR) Bill Ward – Pacific Region Headquarters Bill Ward – Pacific Region Headquarters Steve Keighton – WFO Blacksburg (ER) Steve Keighton – WFO Blacksburg (ER) Dan St. Jean – WFO Grey (ER) Dan St. Jean – WFO Grey (ER) Jeffrey Medlin – WFO Mobile (SR) Jeffrey Medlin – WFO Mobile (SR) Ken Falk – WFO Shreveport (SR) Ken Falk – WFO Shreveport (SR) Lee Anderson – NWSHQ / OS&T – FacilitatorLee Anderson – NWSHQ / OS&T – Facilitator

OverviewOverview

ISST RoadmapISST Roadmap RTMA / AoRRTMA / AoR Gridded MOSGridded MOS Day 4-7 assessmentDay 4-7 assessment Digital Forecast ProcessDigital Forecast Process Open DiscussionOpen Discussion

ISST RoadmapISST Roadmap

RoadmapRoadmap

In an effort to maintain continuity and In an effort to maintain continuity and productivity, the team has devised a productivity, the team has devised a roadmap of team activities that have roadmap of team activities that have been categorized in the following been categorized in the following manner:manner:– ImmediateImmediate– InfluencingInfluencing– MonitoringMonitoring– VisionaryVisionary– SupportingSupporting– OngoingOngoing

ImmediateImmediate Days 4-7 assessmentDays 4-7 assessment

– Given the wide variety of sources available for use in the generation of extended Given the wide variety of sources available for use in the generation of extended forecast grids, a need for a comprehensive assessment of guidance performance forecast grids, a need for a comprehensive assessment of guidance performance is required to support decision makers. The ISST will encourage and support a is required to support decision makers. The ISST will encourage and support a formal WFO/HPC/EMC Days 4-7 grid assessment through the development of a formal WFO/HPC/EMC Days 4-7 grid assessment through the development of a suite of objective metrics for the various sources of guidance/grid initializationssuite of objective metrics for the various sources of guidance/grid initializations

RTMA field assessmentRTMA field assessment– There are several overarching objectives to this assessment: To expose There are several overarching objectives to this assessment: To expose

forecasters to real-time objective NDFD-matching gridded analyses. To facilitate forecasters to real-time objective NDFD-matching gridded analyses. To facilitate early development of WFO tools and approaches that will utilize the mature early development of WFO tools and approaches that will utilize the mature RTMA/AOR in the preparation and critique of forecasts. Provide subjective field RTMA/AOR in the preparation and critique of forecasts. Provide subjective field input to EMC to identify weaknesses and biases that are undoubtedly present in input to EMC to identify weaknesses and biases that are undoubtedly present in the early baseline versions of the RTMA. the early baseline versions of the RTMA.

Digital Forecast ProcessDigital Forecast Process– Provide both broad ideas and specific input on issues related to improving the Provide both broad ideas and specific input on issues related to improving the

scientific validity of methods related to the entire digital forecast process. This scientific validity of methods related to the entire digital forecast process. This item is a larger umbrella under which many other ISST roadmap items fall, and is item is a larger umbrella under which many other ISST roadmap items fall, and is at the heart of our charter. The more immediate goal of this item is to at the heart of our charter. The more immediate goal of this item is to incorporate field input and ISST opinion on key questions aimed at better incorporate field input and ISST opinion on key questions aimed at better defining the digital forecast process the NWS should be aiming for, and to defining the digital forecast process the NWS should be aiming for, and to produce a white paper summarizing these ideas and offering suggestions on how produce a white paper summarizing these ideas and offering suggestions on how to get there. The longer term goal would be to push for and support specific to get there. The longer term goal would be to push for and support specific activities that would help the NWS achieve the desired DFP state, and activities that would help the NWS achieve the desired DFP state, and periodically re-visit what this should look like as resources and needs change.periodically re-visit what this should look like as resources and needs change.

ImmediateImmediate Gridded MOS field assessmentGridded MOS field assessment

– To assess whether gridded MOS fields are beneficial to forecast To assess whether gridded MOS fields are beneficial to forecast operations. The assessment would also look at how the operations. The assessment would also look at how the forecasters used the gridded MOS fields.forecasters used the gridded MOS fields.

GFE system enhancements (real-time feedback, GFE system enhancements (real-time feedback, integrity, QC) integrity, QC) – Continue to support ESRL/GSD (FSL) efforts to develop the GFE Continue to support ESRL/GSD (FSL) efforts to develop the GFE

infrastructure to create enhancements that ultimately ease the infrastructure to create enhancements that ultimately ease the forecaster workload and create better scientifically sound forecaster workload and create better scientifically sound products.products.

Centralized bias correction and smart Centralized bias correction and smart initialization of gridsinitialization of grids– Influence incorporation of an effective Bias Correction scheme and Influence incorporation of an effective Bias Correction scheme and

to enact smart initialization at a central location. This will reduce to enact smart initialization at a central location. This will reduce the overhead related to ifpInit in the field offices and ensure a the overhead related to ifpInit in the field offices and ensure a consistent application of smart initialization across the entire consistent application of smart initialization across the entire domain.domain.

InfluencingInfluencing

OCONUS AoROCONUS AoR– Monitor CONUS AoR actions and develop an Monitor CONUS AoR actions and develop an

OCONUS requirements White Paper to implement OCONUS requirements White Paper to implement an AoR in the OCONUS.an AoR in the OCONUS.

Short Term Forecast Short Term Forecast Methods/ToolsMethods/Tools– Develop a loose framework of methods and tools Develop a loose framework of methods and tools

resulting in more efficient and accurate short term resulting in more efficient and accurate short term gridded forecastsgridded forecasts

MonitoringMonitoring

NWS Concept of Operations NWS Concept of Operations changes (impacts on DFP)changes (impacts on DFP)– Facilitate the discussion of evolving Facilitate the discussion of evolving

the gridded forecast paradigm in the the gridded forecast paradigm in the proposed restructured NWS Concept proposed restructured NWS Concept of Operationsof Operations

VisionaryVisionary

Probabilistic/uncertainty (including tropical fields)Probabilistic/uncertainty (including tropical fields)– To transition the NDFD and digital services from a highly deterministic set To transition the NDFD and digital services from a highly deterministic set

of forecasts to one that is has a better balance of probabilistic and of forecasts to one that is has a better balance of probabilistic and uncertainty information with the highly detailed geoclimatic information. uncertainty information with the highly detailed geoclimatic information.

Future elements and required support guidanceFuture elements and required support guidance– To recommend and encourage the creation of new grids (either forecast or To recommend and encourage the creation of new grids (either forecast or

guidance) that will make the forecast process more efficient, accurate, and guidance) that will make the forecast process more efficient, accurate, and scientifically correct. Also, to increase the amount of information produced scientifically correct. Also, to increase the amount of information produced in the gridded database to be useful for all partners and the public.in the gridded database to be useful for all partners and the public.

LDFD / RDFD / NDFDLDFD / RDFD / NDFD– Explore the advantages of a multi-tiered digital forecast database within Explore the advantages of a multi-tiered digital forecast database within

the frame work of a scientifically sound digital forecast process, and also the frame work of a scientifically sound digital forecast process, and also considering what makes most sense for both the users, from the national considering what makes most sense for both the users, from the national to the local level. Explore answers to the following kinds of questions: 1) to the local level. Explore answers to the following kinds of questions: 1) What would be the differences between a local, regional, and national What would be the differences between a local, regional, and national database in terms of resolution, elements, forecast projections, update database in terms of resolution, elements, forecast projections, update frequency, products generated from them, etc? 2) What entities within the frequency, products generated from them, etc? 2) What entities within the NWS would be responsible for contributing to each of them? 3) How would NWS would be responsible for contributing to each of them? 3) How would they be interconnected? When answering some of these questions, we they be interconnected? When answering some of these questions, we have to consider how these multiple tiers can most efficiently be produced have to consider how these multiple tiers can most efficiently be produced within the current structure of the NWS, as well as potential future within the current structure of the NWS, as well as potential future structure (therefore, this is tied in heavily with “CONOPS Changes”, “DFP”, structure (therefore, this is tied in heavily with “CONOPS Changes”, “DFP”, and several other ISST roadmap issues). and several other ISST roadmap issues).

Role of local modelsRole of local models– Identify and explore the utility of local models in the augmentation and Identify and explore the utility of local models in the augmentation and

enhancement of the gridded forecast process.enhancement of the gridded forecast process.

SupportingSupporting

Input on Digital Services Directives Transition (10-23xx)Input on Digital Services Directives Transition (10-23xx)– Ensure scientific integrity for each weather element in 10-23xx Directive seriesEnsure scientific integrity for each weather element in 10-23xx Directive series

Gridded MOSGridded MOS– Support the efforts of MDL and ESRL/GSD in getting gridded MOS into GFE.Support the efforts of MDL and ESRL/GSD in getting gridded MOS into GFE.

Gridded VerificationGridded Verification– To encourage the creation of gridded verification to allow forecasters to assess To encourage the creation of gridded verification to allow forecasters to assess

their skill at forecasting in the gridded world. Also, to encourage the their skill at forecasting in the gridded world. Also, to encourage the forecasters to look at there verification scores on a grid and improve on their forecasters to look at there verification scores on a grid and improve on their forecasts.forecasts.

CONUS AoRCONUS AoR– Support development and execution of RTMA/AoR, including strong advocacy Support development and execution of RTMA/AoR, including strong advocacy

position.position. Smart Tool/Init TeamSmart Tool/Init Team

– To support the role of the ST/SIT through direct correspondence and quarterly To support the role of the ST/SIT through direct correspondence and quarterly updates from the Team Chair.updates from the Team Chair.

ESRL/GSD & MDL projects (as requested)ESRL/GSD & MDL projects (as requested)– Act as sounding board/testbed/advisory committee to ESRL/GSD & MDL on an Act as sounding board/testbed/advisory committee to ESRL/GSD & MDL on an

as-needed, as-requested basisas-needed, as-requested basis ClimatologyClimatology

– Maintain and Improve Current Climatology Grids for GFEMaintain and Improve Current Climatology Grids for GFE

OngoingOngoing

Input on directivesInput on directives Periodic review of roadmap Periodic review of roadmap

(Quarterly)(Quarterly) TrainingTraining

Delivery VehiclesDelivery Vehicles

ForumsForums Briefings (Corp Board S&T Sub-Committee, DS-Briefings (Corp Board S&T Sub-Committee, DS-

PAC, Regions, MICs, SOOs, etc)PAC, Regions, MICs, SOOs, etc) Input to DS-PACInput to DS-PAC Field surveysField surveys White papersWhite papers One-pagers or memosOne-pagers or memos Form new teamsForm new teams Ex-officio membership on other teamsEx-officio membership on other teams Dialogue with OS&T Director, regions, SOOs, etcDialogue with OS&T Director, regions, SOOs, etc Input on training requirementsInput on training requirements

RTMA / AORRTMA / AOR

The RTMA/AOR TeamThe RTMA/AOR Team

NWS AOR IWTNWS AOR IWT Lee Anderson (co-chair), Lee Anderson (co-chair),

OSTOST Brad Colman (co-chair)Brad Colman (co-chair) Fred Branski, OCIOFred Branski, OCIO Geoff DiMego, NCEP EMCGeoff DiMego, NCEP EMC Brian Gockel, OST MDLBrian Gockel, OST MDL Dave Kitzmiller, OHDDave Kitzmiller, OHD Chuck Kluepfel, OCWWSChuck Kluepfel, OCWWS Art Thomas, OCWWSArt Thomas, OCWWS Bill Ward, NWS PRBill Ward, NWS PR Al Wissman, OOSAl Wissman, OOS

NCEP/EMCNCEP/EMC Geoff DiMegoGeoff DiMego Ying LinYing Lin Manuel PondecaManuel Pondeca

John Horel, University of John Horel, University of UtahUtah

Bob Aune, NESDISBob Aune, NESDIS

Other partners and Other partners and supporters: supporters: NCDC, NESDISNCDC, NESDIS OAR, FSL, OST SECOAR, FSL, OST SEC AMSAMS

Robert Aune, NOAA/NESDIS University of Wisconsin Space Sciences and Engineering Center Robert Aune, NOAA/NESDIS University of Wisconsin Space Sciences and Engineering Center Stanley Benjamin, Forecast Systems LaboratoryStanley Benjamin, Forecast Systems Laboratory Craig Bishop, Naval Research Laboratory Craig Bishop, Naval Research Laboratory Keith A. Brewster, Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms The University of Oklahoma Keith A. Brewster, Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms The University of Oklahoma Brad Colman (Committee Co-chair), NOAA/National Weather Service -- SeattleBrad Colman (Committee Co-chair), NOAA/National Weather Service -- Seattle Christopher Daly, Spatial Climate Analysis Climate Service Oregon State University Christopher Daly, Spatial Climate Analysis Climate Service Oregon State University Geoff DiMego, NOAA/ National Weather Service National Centers for Environmental Geoff DiMego, NOAA/ National Weather Service National Centers for Environmental

Prediction Prediction Joshua P. Hacker, National Center for Atmospheric Research Joshua P. Hacker, National Center for Atmospheric Research John Horel (Committee Co-chair), Department of Meteorology, University of UtahJohn Horel (Committee Co-chair), Department of Meteorology, University of Utah Dongsoo Kim, National Climatic Data Center Dongsoo Kim, National Climatic Data Center Steven Koch, Forecast Systems Laboratory Steven Koch, Forecast Systems Laboratory Steven Lazarus, Florida Institute of Technology Steven Lazarus, Florida Institute of Technology Jennifer Mahoney, Aviation Division Forecast Systems LaboratoryJennifer Mahoney, Aviation Division Forecast Systems Laboratory Tim Owen, National Climatic Data CenterTim Owen, National Climatic Data Center John Roads, Scripps Institution of OceanographyJohn Roads, Scripps Institution of Oceanography David Sharp, NOAA/National Weather Service -- MelbourneDavid Sharp, NOAA/National Weather Service -- Melbourne

Ex Officio: Ex Officio: Andy Edman, Science & Technology Committee representative Andy Edman, Science & Technology Committee representative LeRoy Spayd, Meteorological Services Division representative LeRoy Spayd, Meteorological Services Division representative Gary Carter, Office of Hydrology representative Gary Carter, Office of Hydrology representative Kenneth Crawford, COOP/ISOS representativeKenneth Crawford, COOP/ISOS representative

Mesoscale Analysis Committee (MAC)

Goal: A comprehensive set of the best possible analyses of the atmosphere at high spatial and temporal resolution with particular attention placed on weather and climate conditions near the surface

Brief Background and Brief Background and MotivationMotivation

WR SOO/DOH IFPS White Paper recommendationsWR SOO/DOH IFPS White Paper recommendations:: Develop a national real-time, gridded verification systemDevelop a national real-time, gridded verification system Produce objective, bias-corrected model grids for WFO useProduce objective, bias-corrected model grids for WFO use

2003: S&T Committee endorsed concept of NDFD-grid 2003: S&T Committee endorsed concept of NDFD-grid matching analyses of forecast parametersmatching analyses of forecast parameters

June 2004: Community summit to assess requirements and June 2004: Community summit to assess requirements and capabilities capabilities

August 2004: OST Director established MAC (Mesoscale August 2004: OST Director established MAC (Mesoscale Analysis Committee)Analysis Committee)

October 2004: MAC recommended NOAA develop and October 2004: MAC recommended NOAA develop and implement suite of consistent sensible weather analysis implement suite of consistent sensible weather analysis products using current and future technologies:products using current and future technologies: Develop a strategy for prototype AOR or proof-of-concept (the Develop a strategy for prototype AOR or proof-of-concept (the

RTMA -- Real Time Mesoscale Analysis)RTMA -- Real Time Mesoscale Analysis) Provide mesoscale analyses hourly and within 30 minutes of valid Provide mesoscale analyses hourly and within 30 minutes of valid

time time Pursue an archive-quality analysis (and complete historical re-Pursue an archive-quality analysis (and complete historical re-

analysis)analysis)

Why does the ISST see this Why does the ISST see this as a critical effort?as a critical effort?

WR SOO/DOH IFPS White Paper recommendations:WR SOO/DOH IFPS White Paper recommendations:– Develop a national real-time, gridded verification systemDevelop a national real-time, gridded verification system– Provide full-resolution NCEP model gridsProvide full-resolution NCEP model grids– Produce objective, bias-corrected model grids for WFO useProduce objective, bias-corrected model grids for WFO use– Implement methods to objectively downscale forecast gridsImplement methods to objectively downscale forecast grids– Incorporate climatology grids into the GFE processIncorporate climatology grids into the GFE process– Deliver short and medium-range ensemble gridsDeliver short and medium-range ensemble grids– Produce NDFD-matching gridded MOSProduce NDFD-matching gridded MOS– Modify the GFE software to ingest real-time data Modify the GFE software to ingest real-time data – Optimize ways to tap forecaster expertiseOptimize ways to tap forecaster expertise

Real-time, and delayed mode, analyses will be used to: Real-time, and delayed mode, analyses will be used to: – Verify NWS gridded forecasts Verify NWS gridded forecasts – Support model post processing for bias removalSupport model post processing for bias removal– Support forecast guidance development efforts (gridded MOS, Support forecast guidance development efforts (gridded MOS,

etc.)etc.)– Enhance forecasters’ situational awarenessEnhance forecasters’ situational awareness– Serve as a logical starting point for short-term gridded forecastsServe as a logical starting point for short-term gridded forecasts– Develop a more robust, climatological database for various Develop a more robust, climatological database for various

studies and applicationsstudies and applications

Program will be Program will be executed in three executed in three phasesphases

Phase I – Real-time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA)Phase I – Real-time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA)– Hourly within 30 minutesHourly within 30 minutes– Prototype, or proof-of-concept, for AORPrototype, or proof-of-concept, for AOR NCEP, FSL, and NESDIS volunteer to build first phaseNCEP, FSL, and NESDIS volunteer to build first phase Matures into quality real-time analysis componentMatures into quality real-time analysis component

Phase II – Analysis of RecordPhase II – Analysis of Record– State-of-the-science analysis (best possible)State-of-the-science analysis (best possible)– Delayed for late arriving data assetsDelayed for late arriving data assets– Methodology to be determined (likely community effort)Methodology to be determined (likely community effort)– Accepted ‘truth’ for use in studies and verificationAccepted ‘truth’ for use in studies and verification

Phase III – ReanalysisPhase III – Reanalysis– Apply mature AOR methodology retrospectivelyApply mature AOR methodology retrospectively– 30 year time history of AORs30 year time history of AORs

RTMA logistics and RTMA logistics and timelinetimeline

Experimental grids are now completeExperimental grids are now complete– Hourly, 5-km NDFD grid, GRIB2Hourly, 5-km NDFD grid, GRIB2

EMC objective evaluation and comparisonEMC objective evaluation and comparison

Field assessment early CY2006Field assessment early CY2006

Operational at NCEP Q3 FY2006Operational at NCEP Q3 FY2006

Distribution of analyses and estimate of analysis Distribution of analyses and estimate of analysis error/uncertainty via AWIPS SBN as part of OB7 upgrade – end error/uncertainty via AWIPS SBN as part of OB7 upgrade – end of FY2006of FY2006

Archived at NCDCArchived at NCDC

Initial RTMA Initial RTMA productsproducts

Products transmitted hourly via SBN to AWIPS for field officesProducts transmitted hourly via SBN to AWIPS for field offices Temperature (2 m)Temperature (2 m) Dew point temperature (2 m)Dew point temperature (2 m) Wind (10 m, direction and speed)Wind (10 m, direction and speed) Quantitative precipitation (Stage II)Quantitative precipitation (Stage II) Sky coverSky cover

Also includes estimates of analysis errorAlso includes estimates of analysis error Spatially and temporally varyingSpatially and temporally varying Reflects observation density, observation quality and Reflects observation density, observation quality and

background qualitybackground quality Also reflects representativeness of observationsAlso reflects representativeness of observations

Additional products (e.g., max. temp.) developed and Additional products (e.g., max. temp.) developed and provided laterprovided later

RTMA information archived at NCDCRTMA information archived at NCDC

RTMA MethodologyRTMA Methodology

Temperature, dew point, and wind elementsTemperature, dew point, and wind elements– RUC forecast/analysis (13 km) is downscaled by FSL to 5 RUC forecast/analysis (13 km) is downscaled by FSL to 5

km NDFD gridkm NDFD grid– Downscaled RUC then used as first-guess in NCEP’s Downscaled RUC then used as first-guess in NCEP’s

2DVar analysis of ALL surface observations2DVar analysis of ALL surface observations– Estimate of analysis error/uncertaintyEstimate of analysis error/uncertainty

Precipitation – NCEP Stage II analysisPrecipitation – NCEP Stage II analysis

Sky cover – NESDIS GOES sounder effective cloud Sky cover – NESDIS GOES sounder effective cloud amountamount

Downscaled 2 m Downscaled 2 m TemperatureTemperature

Original 13 km

Downscaled 5 km

ALL Surface Obs = 89126 ALL Surface Obs = 89126 totaltotal

NCEP obtains full complement of NCEP obtains full complement of observationsobservations

NCEP GSI-2DVAR Anisotropic covariance NCEP GSI-2DVAR Anisotropic covariance functionsfunctions

Wind-following auto-correlation Wind-following auto-correlation function for moisture for a test point function for moisture for a test point located at (x=140,y=180)located at (x=140,y=180)

Very first Very first examples!examples!

NCEP RTMA Precipitation NCEP RTMA Precipitation AnalysisAnalysis

NCEP Stage II (real-time) and Stage IV (delayed) precipitation NCEP Stage II (real-time) and Stage IV (delayed) precipitation analyses are produced on the 4-km Hydrologic Rainfall analyses are produced on the 4-km Hydrologic Rainfall Analysis Project gridAnalysis Project grid

The existing multi-sensor (gauge and radar) Stage II The existing multi-sensor (gauge and radar) Stage II precipitation analysis available 35 minutes past the hourprecipitation analysis available 35 minutes past the hour

RTMA is mapped to the 5 km NDFD grid and converted to RTMA is mapped to the 5 km NDFD grid and converted to GRIB2GRIB2ORIGINAL NDFD GRIB2

Hourly Gages Available for Hourly Gages Available for Stage II Precipitation AnalysisStage II Precipitation Analysis

Derived ECA from GOES-12 ECA from GRIB2 file – 5km grid

GOES-12 IR image (11um)

• Effective Cloud Amount (ECA, %) • Derived from GOES sounder• Mapped onto 5-km NDFD grid• Converted to GRIB2 for NDGD• Robert Aune, NESDIS (Madison, WI)

Sky Cover: Effective Cloud Amount

Evaluation plans (Nov-Evaluation plans (Nov-Jun)Jun)

NCEP will establish webpage displaying RTMANCEP will establish webpage displaying RTMA NCEP will attempt to acquire gridded forms of:NCEP will attempt to acquire gridded forms of:

– ADAS from University of Utah / WRADAS from University of Utah / WR– STMAS from FSL Steve KochSTMAS from FSL Steve Koch– MatchOb from AWIPSMatchOb from AWIPS

NCEP will conduct cross validation analysisNCEP will conduct cross validation analysis Steve Lazarus (ADAS expert) will help with inter-Steve Lazarus (ADAS expert) will help with inter-

comparison of 2DVar with other analysescomparison of 2DVar with other analyses NCEP and ISST will conduct field assessmentNCEP and ISST will conduct field assessment

RTMA Field AssessmentRTMA Field Assessment

ISST will work with EMC and Kirby Cook (WR) to distribute ISST will work with EMC and Kirby Cook (WR) to distribute initial fields to test officesinitial fields to test offices

Grids will be displayable in D2D and ingested into IFPS/GFEGrids will be displayable in D2D and ingested into IFPS/GFE

Offices will provide feedback on pluses/minuses – i.e., help Offices will provide feedback on pluses/minuses – i.e., help define the gap between this proof-of-concept and needed define the gap between this proof-of-concept and needed operational qualityoperational quality

Several offices from each CONUS Region will participateSeveral offices from each CONUS Region will participate

Up and running around the first of yearUp and running around the first of year

Results will feedback into EMC developmentResults will feedback into EMC development

Will provide test grids for developing gridded verification Will provide test grids for developing gridded verification interfaces (BoiVer and FSL)interfaces (BoiVer and FSL)

Phase II: Analysis of RecordPhase II: Analysis of Record

RTMA (improved version) will remain in place to support near-real-RTMA (improved version) will remain in place to support near-real-time needs of forecastertime needs of forecaster

Considerable research, development, and operational Considerable research, development, and operational infrastructure (computing) required for complete suite of analysis infrastructure (computing) required for complete suite of analysis products of sufficient accuracy to verify NDFDproducts of sufficient accuracy to verify NDFD

Best possible analysis will require 3 or 4-DVar Best possible analysis will require 3 or 4-DVar – Model needed to move info through space & time – WRFModel needed to move info through space & time – WRF– Analysis capable of using ALL observations – GSI Analysis capable of using ALL observations – GSI – Later data cut-off to acquire all obs – 18-48 hoursLater data cut-off to acquire all obs – 18-48 hours– Should use obs precip to drive evolution of land-states lower boundary Should use obs precip to drive evolution of land-states lower boundary

conditioncondition

Combination of 3D-Var and full-physics model requires substantial Combination of 3D-Var and full-physics model requires substantial additional computing resourcesadditional computing resources

Initial steps started to address NWS AOR funding for FY 2008 and Initial steps started to address NWS AOR funding for FY 2008 and beyond, emphasizing NCEP (OSIP, PPBES, etc.)beyond, emphasizing NCEP (OSIP, PPBES, etc.)

Additional funding sources need to be identified for broader Additional funding sources need to be identified for broader community efforts to develop next-generation AORcommunity efforts to develop next-generation AOR

Gridded MOSGridded MOS


Why do we need a gridded MOS?Why do we need a gridded MOS? When will it be available?When will it be available? What will gridded MOS include?What will gridded MOS include? How will we know if it is worth the How will we know if it is worth the

effort?effort? How do I learn more about How do I learn more about

gridded MOS?gridded MOS?


ISST Whitepaper (2003) ISST Whitepaper (2003) To provide model bias correction of To provide model bias correction of

gridsgrids High-resolution guidance High-resolution guidance Improve centralized guidanceImprove centralized guidance


Produced at 12Z and 00Z Produced at 12Z and 00Z 5 km grid (CONUS) **5 km grid (CONUS) **

Initial DevelopmentInitial Development West of 110 degrees.West of 110 degrees. Max T, Min TMax T, Min T 3 hr Temp, Dew Point, & RH 3 hr Temp, Dew Point, & RH 12 hr PoP, (6 hr PoP)12 hr PoP, (6 hr PoP) WRH will create IFPS SmartInitsWRH will create IFPS SmartInits

Future Gridded MOSFuture Gridded MOS

More Variables More Variables – Wind direction, Wind speed, 6hr Prob. Wind direction, Wind speed, 6hr Prob.

Thunder, 12 hr Prob. Thunder, Snowfall, SkyThunder, 12 hr Prob. Thunder, Snowfall, Sky– Anticipated full deployment of grids Fall Anticipated full deployment of grids Fall

20062006

Full CONUS (Summer 2006)Full CONUS (Summer 2006) Alaska (Fall 2007)Alaska (Fall 2007) Hawaii (Fall 2008)Hawaii (Fall 2008)

Gridded MOS Gridded MOS AssessmentAssessment

ISST will conduct assessment for Gridded ISST will conduct assessment for Gridded MOSMOS

Will start with Medford and then Western Will start with Medford and then Western Region.Region.

Finally with the entire CONUS (OCONUS).Finally with the entire CONUS (OCONUS).

Information on Gridded MOSInformation on Gridded MOShttp://http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/gmos.htmlwww.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/gmos.html

Day 4-7 AssessmentDay 4-7 Assessment

Day 4-7 Guidance Day 4-7 Guidance AssessmentAssessment

The increasing number of sources The increasing number of sources (including derived sources and (including derived sources and ensembles) of days 4-7 guidance ensembles) of days 4-7 guidance necessitates that an objective evaluation necessitates that an objective evaluation of these sources be conducted in order of these sources be conducted in order to:to:– Foster effective decision making surrounding a proven Foster effective decision making surrounding a proven

starting point for the extended portion of the gridded starting point for the extended portion of the gridded forecast (which could be fluid)forecast (which could be fluid)

– Improve downscaling techniques (e.g. MatchGuidance, Improve downscaling techniques (e.g. MatchGuidance, Regime PRISM)Regime PRISM)

– Improve HPC gridded guidance (e.g., alternate first guess)Improve HPC gridded guidance (e.g., alternate first guess)– Facilitate bias corrected outputFacilitate bias corrected output– Facilitate assessment of new methods or models before Facilitate assessment of new methods or models before

implementationimplementation


Suggested procedureSuggested procedure– Start soon (software, tools, and Start soon (software, tools, and

training requirements can be training requirements can be developed/defined)developed/defined) Alternative verification schemes Alternative verification schemes

should be used to effectively should be used to effectively account for geographical timeliness account for geographical timeliness constraints and varying field constraints and varying field practice (i.e. when 4-7 day grids practice (i.e. when 4-7 day grids prepared versus available guidance)prepared versus available guidance)


Suggested Procedure (continued)Suggested Procedure (continued)– Guidance to be evaluated initially: Guidance to be evaluated initially:

HPC PointsHPC Points HPC GridsHPC Grids GFSX GridsGFSX Grids GFSX MOSGFSX MOS DGEX GridsDGEX Grids

– Duration - 1 year with quarterly reports Duration - 1 year with quarterly reports (possibly ongoing)(possibly ongoing)

– Verification of grid sources will be completed Verification of grid sources will be completed at non-traditional verification points to at non-traditional verification points to capture skill at non-MOS forecast locationscapture skill at non-MOS forecast locations

– Conducted with grids when RTMA is availableConducted with grids when RTMA is available


Assessment could be expanded to Assessment could be expanded to include other sources such as: include other sources such as: Gridded MOS, ensemble MOS and Gridded MOS, ensemble MOS and other modeling center grids (e.g., other modeling center grids (e.g., CMC, EMCWF, UKMET, etc)CMC, EMCWF, UKMET, etc)– Sources used by HPC for extended Sources used by HPC for extended

guidance productionguidance production

Digital Forecast Digital Forecast ProcessProcess

Digital Forecast Process Digital Forecast Process Field EvaluationField Evaluation

Well over a year ago, the ISST set out to solicit Well over a year ago, the ISST set out to solicit field input on key issues related to the DFPfield input on key issues related to the DFP

We drafted a one-page document highlighting We drafted a one-page document highlighting what we felt were the key issueswhat we felt were the key issues

Established an on-line forum for discussion Established an on-line forum for discussion (helpful, but limited input)(helpful, but limited input)

Developed three overarching questions based Developed three overarching questions based on original document and on-line forum inputon original document and on-line forum input

~1 year ago, created regional teams of SOOs ~1 year ago, created regional teams of SOOs and forecasters (initiated by Dave Sharp - SR and forecasters (initiated by Dave Sharp - SR ISST member at the time)ISST member at the time)

Either one team per question, or in some Either one team per question, or in some cases one team addressed all three questionscases one team addressed all three questions


The three questions:The three questions:

– ““Within the limits of predictability, what are the Within the limits of predictability, what are the optimal spatial and temporal resolutions needed to optimal spatial and temporal resolutions needed to provide a useful and versatile digital service while provide a useful and versatile digital service while maintaining scientific validity?”maintaining scientific validity?”

– ““What is the best way to minimize discrepancies What is the best way to minimize discrepancies and produce a near-seamless NDFD without and produce a near-seamless NDFD without sacrificing accuracy and consistency?”sacrificing accuracy and consistency?”

– "How should each NCEP center support the WFOs "How should each NCEP center support the WFOs

contribution to the digital forecast process?"contribution to the digital forecast process?"


Input from the regional teams has now been Input from the regional teams has now been compiled and summarized, and highlights are compiled and summarized, and highlights are presented herepresented here

Over the next several months, the ISST will Over the next several months, the ISST will use the regional team input, add our input to use the regional team input, add our input to the questions, and develop a series of the questions, and develop a series of documents (one addressing each question) documents (one addressing each question) with greater definition to the forecast process with greater definition to the forecast process within the gridded paradigmwithin the gridded paradigm– Findings from the CONOPS Tiger Team will Findings from the CONOPS Tiger Team will

certainly have an influencecertainly have an influence– These documents will hopefully be an important These documents will hopefully be an important

resource as various D.S. teams forge aheadresource as various D.S. teams forge ahead


Input from the regional teams was Input from the regional teams was impressively thoughtful and thorough. impressively thoughtful and thorough.

These ideas and suggestions will weigh These ideas and suggestions will weigh very heavily in the final ISST documents, very heavily in the final ISST documents, and we hope ultimately are considered and we hope ultimately are considered seriously by the groups making decisions seriously by the groups making decisions on future directions for D.S.on future directions for D.S.

We thank We thank allall the members of these the members of these teams!teams!

Question 1:Question 1: “Within the limits of “Within the limits of predictability, what are the predictability, what are the optimal spatial and temporal optimal spatial and temporal resolutions needed to provide a resolutions needed to provide a useful and versatile digital useful and versatile digital service while maintaining service while maintaining scientific validity?”scientific validity?”

Digital Forecast Digital Forecast Process Process Field EvaluationField Evaluation

Several teams argued for the need to give Several teams argued for the need to give customers both high resolution (spatial and customers both high resolution (spatial and temporal) deterministic grids (LDFD temporal) deterministic grids (LDFD concept), as well as coarser (in space and concept), as well as coarser (in space and time) NDFD grids, with at least two teams time) NDFD grids, with at least two teams suggesting that these resolutions change suggesting that these resolutions change with increasing forecast hour (but AR and with increasing forecast hour (but AR and WR argued for consistent spatial resolution WR argued for consistent spatial resolution with time to depict impacts of complex with time to depict impacts of complex terrain)terrain)

Digital Forecast Digital Forecast Process Process Field EvaluationField EvaluationQuestion 1:Question 1: “Within the limits of predictability, what are the optimal “Within the limits of predictability, what are the optimal

spatial and temporal resolutions needed to provide a useful and spatial and temporal resolutions needed to provide a useful and versatile digital service while maintaining scientific validity?”versatile digital service while maintaining scientific validity?”

ER team made compelling (very thorough and ER team made compelling (very thorough and well researched) argument for changing culture well researched) argument for changing culture from product centric (deterministic) to a from product centric (deterministic) to a probabilistic system supporting decision probabilistic system supporting decision assistance data, with sophisticated high assistance data, with sophisticated high resolution EPS serving as guidance backboneresolution EPS serving as guidance backbone

Other teams supported introducing uncertainty Other teams supported introducing uncertainty grids, especially beyond 72 hrsgrids, especially beyond 72 hrs

Idea of probability of exceedance thresholds for Idea of probability of exceedance thresholds for high impact events even in short term was high impact events even in short term was expressedexpressed



Optimal Spatial Resolution SummaryOptimal Spatial Resolution Summary– 2/5 teams felt that 5 km was optimum given current tools and state of 2/5 teams felt that 5 km was optimum given current tools and state of

the applied science (and input grids should never be coarser than the applied science (and input grids should never be coarser than output grids)output grids)

– 3/5 teams felt that there was either no limit, or that resolutions <5 km 3/5 teams felt that there was either no limit, or that resolutions <5 km could be used in a separate ‘native WFO grid’ (i.e., different from NDFD; could be used in a separate ‘native WFO grid’ (i.e., different from NDFD; perhaps a formalized LDFD) to resolve terrain and\or mesoscale perhaps a formalized LDFD) to resolve terrain and\or mesoscale processes vital to expressing any deterministic portion of the forecastprocesses vital to expressing any deterministic portion of the forecast

Optimal Temporal Resolution SummaryOptimal Temporal Resolution Summary– Of those teams who provided specific answers, the following conclusions Of those teams who provided specific answers, the following conclusions

were drawn:were drawn:– 0-6 h0-6 h min -> hourly min -> hourly – 0-24 h0-24 h hourly hourly – 25-72 h25-72 h 3 hourly3 hourly– 73-184 h73-184 h 6 or 12 h6 or 12 h




Question 2:Question 2: “What is the best way “What is the best way to minimize discrepancies and to minimize discrepancies and produce a near-seamless NDFD produce a near-seamless NDFD without sacrificing accuracy and without sacrificing accuracy and consistency?”consistency?”


Question 2:Question 2: “What is the best way to minimize “What is the best way to minimize discrepancies and produce a near-seamless NDFD discrepancies and produce a near-seamless NDFD without sacrificing accuracy and consistency?”without sacrificing accuracy and consistency?”

Several common themes, which will be the focus of this brief summary

Many other good ideas expressed by only one team that are also worth consideration, and are included in our written summary, and will be addressed in final reports



Better leadership at all levels - DSPO/DS-PAC critical in providing consistent, authoritative message about importance of accuracy and seamlessness

Standardization of methodologies and tools (including starting point) - Not easy, since some local flexibility still needed

Improved communication - more sub-regional workshops, inter-office team building, forecaster exchange?



Improved collaboration - graphical sharing, conf calls, video conferencing, earlier/better collaboration on large scale before grid editing

LDFD/RDFD/NDFD concept - robust smoothing required to go upscale, or “drilling” down

Gridded verification!!! - must include real-time feedback - better accuracy will help result in better collaborated grids - RTMA/AoR critical here



Use of ISC grids - exchange more frequently, use ISC mode appropriately

Internal/External Grid Integrity - enforce some consistency checks - better define collaboration thresholds (science based)

Forecast accuracy - back to need for gridded verification - emphasis on accuracy as a way of improving collaboration - accuracy incentives (in addition to collaboration “smiley faces”)



Centrally-provided meteorological fields, from which sensible weather elements are locally derived and adjusted - requires some more thought to flesh out specific recommendation - related to DFP Qstn 3


Question 3: Question 3: ”How should each NCEP ”How should each NCEP center support the WFOs center support the WFOs contribution to the digital forecast contribution to the digital forecast process?”process?”


Question 3: Question 3: ”How should each NCEP center support the ”How should each NCEP center support the WFOs contribution to the digital forecast process?”WFOs contribution to the digital forecast process?”

Common themes:

All guidance in gridded format, and matching NDFD resolution if possible

Probabilistic grids for certain parameters

More ensemble data, and in gridded format


Question 3: Question 3: ”How should each NCEP center support the ”How should each NCEP center support the WFOs contribution to the digital forecast process?”WFOs contribution to the digital forecast process?”

Common requirements of each center:

CPC: Climatology and stand dev grids

EMC: AoR, model output at native resolution, local modeling support

HPC: Day 4-7 grids

OPC: Offshore grids

SPC: Products in gridded format

TPC: Maintain TCM wind grids


Questions/Comments about the Questions/Comments about the summary so far, or our process summary so far, or our process and plans for the DFP material?and plans for the DFP material?

Open DiscussionOpen Discussion

ifps science steering team forum

Documents

early development of

field offices

subjective field input

isst opinion

specific input

grid assessment

gridded mos fields

isst roadmap items