IFPS Science Steering Team

IFPS Methodology WorkshopApril 2004

Presented by Bill Ward (PRHQ)

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/ifps_sst/

Goals

• Introduce the ISST

• Outline recent activities and accomplishments

• List current activities

• Provide a roadmap of ISST future near term activities

WHAT IS THE ISST ?• IFPS Science Steering Team

• Composed of field experts chartered to identify and prioritize ongoing IFPS science issues

• Reports to S&T Committee of the Corporate Board (Jack Hayes chairs this committee) – A formal conduit between field personnel and NWSH

• First assembled early 2003

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/ifps_sst/

Team Members• Pacific Region: Bill Ward (PRHQ)

• Alaska Region: Eric Stevens (WFO Fairbanks)

• Western Region: Brad Colman (WFO Seattle - team leader) and Mark Jackson (WFO Salt Lake City)

• Southern Region: Andy Patrick (WFO Corpus Christi)

• Central Region: Dan Baumgardt (WFO LaCrosse)

• Eastern Region: Steve Keighton (WFO Blacksburg)

• NCEP: Peter Manousos (HPC – backup team leader)

• NWSHQ: Kevin Schrab (OST - facilitator)

WHAT KIND OF ISSUES DOES ISST TACKLE?

• Development of a National real-time, gridded verification system

• Availability of full-resolution NCEP model grids to GFE

• Objectively produced bias-corrected model grids in GFE

• Methods to implement objectively downscaled forecast grids

• Incorporation of climatologic grids into the GFE process

• Delivery of short and medium-range ensemble grids to GFE

• Modification of GFE software to ingest real-time data

• Optimization of forecaster expertise in gridded forecast process

Recent ISST Accomplishments• Identified opportunity to fill SBN

"transmission gaps" with transmission of Eta surface and BL fields

• Conceived, developed, and championed the Downscaled GFS with Eta Extension (DGEX)

• Worked with MDL on their efforts to develop COOP MOS (now in GFE) and gridded MOS– Number of MOS sites increased by a

factor of 3

ISST Current Issues• Seeing DGEX through evaluation period to operational production

– Mid April: convergence of Eta runs complete and Eta extension running operationally

– Late May: DVB-S efforts free up SBN bandwidth– June: OB3.2 upgrade to AWIPS configuration– June: Eta extension operational via SBN using GRIB2

• NVIWT Verification Plan

• Assist getting real time data into GFE (satellite/radar)

DGEX has Eta Attitude!

Eta snow cover reflected in the Day 4 MaxT grid

52

63

61

5451

64

62

6265

63

• Verification and Analysis of Record– Reviewing Verification

Plan (point vs. grid)– Initial discussion on how

to get ball rolling

Maximum TemperatureMAE for 24 hr, 12Z

VERSUS RUC : 20 km grid

Early results from MDL’s gridded verification

Factors Impacting the Digital Forecast Process

• Category One: Impacts on an Individual Forecast Desk– Analysis of Record– The Interface with GFE

• Category Two: Distribution of Duties within the NWS– Roles of National Centers and WFOs– Collaboration Between WFOs– Roles of Humans and NWP

• Category Three: Characteristics of the Digital Forecast Database– The Limits of Predictability– Spatial Resolution– Area and Point Forecasts– Temporal Resolution– The Probabilistic Component

• Category Four: Needs of the Customer– Access to the Digital Database– Collaboration Between the NWS and the Customer– Updated Forecasts

Benefits of Satellite Data in GFE

• IR imagery with pixel counts > 80. Currently GFE does not assign "temperature" to the IR pixel count...it's just the raw 0-255 value.

Benefits of Satellite Data in GFE

• Visible imagery with the corresponding Sky Cover forecast grid overlain.

Updated Roadmap• New prioritized list of action topics:

– Analysis of Record– Digital Services forecast process– Climatology – Downscaling (long-term solutions)– Uncertainty and probabilistic information

• Short term actions (next 2-3 months)– Verification (prioritize tasks in NVIWT Verification Plan)– Input to 10-102 (declaring elements official)

ISST and You• Contact any ISST member with your IFPS ideas

and concerns

• ISST Forum Teleconference – Lines available for all Region– ISST discusses current activities and S&T committee

briefing highlights– Provides a forum for your feedback

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/ifps_sst/

Closing Comments• ISST is a formally recognized and active team addressing science

related issues with regards to IFPS/GFE – A formal conduit between field personnel and NWSH

• ISST efforts have already resulted in significant positive changes related to IFPS/GFE at the WFO level

• The team is championed by Jack Hayes (OST Director)– Tasked ISST to think freely – Potentially puts items on a fast track

• You have access to your ISST representative and therefore a method to elevate IFPS/GFE concerns

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/ifps_sst/