iea weo 2012 summary slides

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This document is confidential and is intended solely forthe use and information of the client to whom it is addressed.

London, Dusseldorf November 2012 Briefing Document

IEA World Energy Outlook 2012Selected slides and themes

DRAFT


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Summary of selected themes from WEO 2012

The global energy map is changing, with potentially far-reaching consequences for energy

markets and trade. It is being redrawn by the resurgence in oil and gas production in the UnitedStates and could be further reshaped by a retreat from nuclear power in some countries,continued rapid growth in the use of wind and solar technologies and by the global spread ofunconventional gas production. Perspectives for international oil markets hinge on Iraqs success

in revitalising its oil sector

Taking all new developments and policies into account, the world is still failing to put the

global energy system onto a more sustainable path. Global energy demand grows by morethan one-third over the period to 2035 in the New Policies Scenario (our central scenario), withChina, India and the Middle East accounting for 60% of the increase

Energy developments in US are profound and their effect will be felt well beyond NorthAmerica and the energy sector. Recent rebound in US oil and gas production, driven byupstream technologies that are unlocking light tight oil and shale gas resources, is spurringeconomic activitywith less expensive gas and electricity prices giving industry a competitiveedgeand steadily changing the role of North America in global energy trade. By around 2020,the United States is projected to become the largest global oil producer (overtaking Saudi Arabiauntil the mid-2020s) and starts to see the impact of new fuel-efficiency measures in transport. Theresult is a continued fall in US oil imports

DATE1

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012


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Selected slides

DATE2


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0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

Million toe

203520302020201520101990

World Primary Energy Demand by Fuel19902035 New Policies Scenario

Bioenergy HydroOther renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal

CAGR20102035

7.7%1.6%

2.0%1.9%

1.6%

0.5%

0.8%

22%

Oil

32%

Gas

Coal

27%6%Nuclear

2%

Hydro10%

Bioenergy

1%

Other renewables



Gas and renewables will have the higher growth rates in globalenergy demand and fossil fuels will still dominate in 2035

7%

24%

Oil

27%Gas

Coal

25%

Nuclear 3%

Hydro 11%

Bioenergy

4%

Other renewables

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012; Booz & Company analysis


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0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

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14,000

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18,000

Africa

2015

Asia

E. Europe /Eurasia

Asia Oceania

Europe

Americas

Latin America

Middle East

Million toe

201020001990 2020 2030 2035

World Primary Energy Demand by Region19902035 New Policies Scenario

The non OECD countries and especially Asia will be the drivers ofenergy demand growth


OECD

NONOEC


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Cumulative Investment in Oil Infrastructure2012 - 2035

3%

Other

10%

Refining

87%

UpstreamTotal = US$10.2trn

Some US$19 trillion will need to be invested in oil and gasinfrastructure and particularly in upstream

Cumulative Investment in Gas Infrastructure2012 - 2035

9%

Other

67%Upstream

24%Transmission and Distribution

Total = US$8.7trn


Average capex spend ofUS$614bn/y. Required to

increase capacity to meet higherdemand & higher capital cost of

new sources ofsupply (deep water and

unconventional)




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Million bbls/d

BunkersLatin America

Africa

Middle East

Asia

E.Europe /Eurasia

Asia Oceania

Europe

Americas

2035203020252020201520111990

World Oil Demand19902035 New Policies Scenario

Global oil demand is forecast to grow at 0.6% CAGR between 2011and 2035 to reach ~100m bbls/d


OECD

NONOEC




Remaining Technically Recoverable Oil ResourcesConventional & End 2011 (Bn bbls)

16%

NGLs

84%

Crude OilTotal = 2,678bn bbls

Globally there are some 6 trillion bbls of recoverable oil reserves(between conventional and unconventional)

8%

Light Tight Oil

59%EHOB

34%Kerogen Oil

Total = 3,193bn bbls

Note: EHOB = extra-heavy oil and bitumenSource: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012; Booz & Company analysis

Remaining Technically Recoverable Oil ResourcesUnconventional & End 2011 (Bn bbls)


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0 50 100 150 200 250 300

50 250100 150 200

Canada

Bn bbls

Venezuela

Kuwait

UAE

Nigeria

Libya

Russia

Years

0

Saudi Arabia

300

Iraq

Iran

Proven Oil Reserves in Top 10 CountriesEnd 2011

Proven Reserves

R/P (bottom axis

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2012; OPEC; IEA World Energy Outlook 2012; Booz & Company analysis

With its large reserves of extra heavy oil in the Orinoco belt,Venezuela has now surpassed Saudi Arabia

Civil war in Libya in 2011

dramatically reducedproduction hence the high

R/P ratio


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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2015 2030 2035

Million bbls/d

2020 202520111990

World Oil Supply by Type19902035 New Policies Scenario

Going forward the contribution of unconventionals to global oilsupply will be modest


UNCONVENTION

CONVENTIONA

Natural gas liquidsGas-to-liquids Light tight oilCoal-to-liquids Venezuela extra-heavy oil Canada oil sands Crude oil


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Non-OPEC Oil ProductionLeading Countries 1990 - 2035

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Million bbls/d

20152011 2020 2025 2030 20351990

Canada United StatesBrazilKazakhstan

OPEC Oil ProductionLeading Countries 1990 - 2035

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1990

Million bbls/d

2015 20352011 2020 2025 2030

IranVenezuela Saudi ArabiaLibya Iraq

US and Brazil will become major oil producers outside of OPECwhile Iraq will demonstrate greatest growth in OPEC

By 2020 US will producemore than Saudi Arabia

Iraq growing production at~5% CAGR between 2011-

2035



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however, it is the impact of shale gas revolution on US which isreshaping the global energy landscape

Shale gas revolution is boosting tight oil productionwith US becoming leading oil producer

Production growth stimulating US economicactivity. Rising employment in extractive sector(growing at 6% CAGR between 2005 and 2012)

US benefiting from advantage of lower energyprices and feedstock prices which is boostingcapital investment, particularly in chemicals (Shelllooking to build ethane cracker in Pennsylvania)

However, there are concerns around:

Sustainability of this growth. Environmental

impact of fracking and weaker oil prices couldimpact production economics

US foreign policy role in Middle East given itsgrowing energy independence. Will China stepinto breach as US extricates itself?

DATE11

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

000s bbls/d

11,000

US Oil Production1965 - 2011

US forecast thit 11m bbls/

by 2020

100

120

140160

180

200

2012

2011

+6%

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

000s

2010

2007

2008

2009

Employees in US Oil & Gas Extraction industry20002012 (Oct. YTD)

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012; Bureau of Labor Statistics; BP Statistical review; Booz & Company analysis


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Upstream Oil and Gas Investment by CompanySelected Players - 2011 vs. 2012

2012 (US$bn)

2011 (US$bn)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

US$bn

Exxon

Mo

bil

Gazprom

Pe

tro

bras

Chevron En

i

Conoco

Phillips

Statoil

BP

Pemex

To

tal

Shel

l

Sinopec

CNOOC

Occ

iden

tal

BG

Group

Rosnef

t

Lu

koi

l

Suncor

Apac

he

Pe

troc

hina

According to an IEA survey, leading companies are broadlyexpected to increase upstream capex in 2012

Worldwide upstream oil and gasinvestment is budgeted to rise by around8% in 2012 reaching a new record of $619

billion


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